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[Yosarian2]

Yes he has. Go look at his posts in isolation. He has given many reasons of why he suspects you to be scum, and they do not all have to do with Adel.

No. He had many posts attacking me and trying to make every single thing I've done all game sound bad. He didn't have any posts at all that actually contained a case against me or a coherent argument for my actions being more likely scum then town.

[scotmany12]

The one role that would suck if given to scum would be the jailkeeper, as that would lead to my death, which would cripple the town, especially if we aren't given a protective role tomorrow.

Eh. If you had gotten killed, then 95% chance we lynch the jailkeeper that day. I don't know how big a risk that would have been, considering the cost to the scum; I definatly would have assumed that if you were giving one group "bulletproof-tracker" and one group "jailkeeper", you would have given bulletproof-tracker to the group you trusted the most.

And no, bulletproof isn't the most important role, tracker is. Bulletproof is mostly just there to protect the tracker. Also, the bulletproof protects the confrimed townie as well, that's a big bonus.

Yos, you suggested that the scum would have killed me yesterday even if Ren was scum. You suggested they were willing to get rid of one of their own to get rid of me, the most valuable role to the town. So I would expect you believe that the scum would have killed me had I given them jailkeeper.

And regardless of how obvious you think it might be, you cannot obviously believe the scum would not find someone on the accounting team to be a threat? It would be much safer for scum to attempt a kill on one of them, rather than risk hitting the bulletproof with TDC.

Yos, you need to answer this now. Did you take the tracker role?

[scotmany12]

Yes he has. Go look at his posts in isolation. He has given many reasons of why he suspects you to be scum, and they do not all have to do with Adel.

No. He had many posts attacking me and trying to make every single thing I've done all game sound bad. He didn't have any posts at all that actually contained a case against me or a coherent argument for my actions being more likely scum then town.

His arguments were coherent and easy to follow, whether or not you agree with him. You do not have to make a nicely laid post for it to be considered a case. It's irrelevant if you disagree with what OGML says, and it's irrelevant if you think it's bs. He still made a case against you, and he has posted many reasons why he believes you to be scum.

[Korts]

(2) SensFan- Budja, Goatrevolt

(2) Yosarian2- Ren Hoek, OhGodMyLife
(1) MichelSableheart- curiouskarmadog
(1) Ren Hoek- MichelSableheart
(1) curiouskarmadog- Yosarian2

not voting:

vollkan, Ojanen, SensFan, scotmany12

6 to lynch

Deadline is 6 PM EST August 22.

Activity check in a moment.

[Korts]

SensFan has been prodded.

[Ojanen]

While reading, I jotted down some concerns about Vollkan. I see Goatrevolt has also had them. I largely agree with him about the vague feeling from Vollkan's play and the FL stances sequence feeling questionable.
His positions are often reasonable but somehow the overall body of stuff that he tends to bring up feel uncomfortably safe, I can't get a read out of most anything. Also, I get the feeling there's a tendency of me not being able to differentiate to what degree he finds stuff scummy he brings up.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

So for example Budja is one of the best examples of strong suspicion of his in the game. Vollkan is disputing mainly the one point of FL change of opinion from him and yes, he's bringing up points about it.
But Budja was deemed moderately scummy in his recent PBPA and Vollkan hasn't voted for Budja.



The FaerieLord sequence:

I get why FL's theory is wrong, but I'm not sure I get the thrust of your accusation - unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

First stance, which I found slightly odd when the post he quoted from Adel said quite obviously the "unless" part of this post.
Continued with more exchange with Adel where he agrees with the scum-motivation of FL's surprise.

Do you think it is more probable that he didn't understand my plan, but innocently thought that he did?

Frankly, no but what's keeping me from switching my vote is whether FL can justify it. In my head, though, I can't think of a way that a person could understand your plan and not get the point of the busdriving. I mean, the whole point of the busdriver is to serve as a means of frustrating scumkills. It strikes me as extremely unlikely that a player could not realise that but support the plan nonetheless (surely, if a player didn't understand the inclusion of a busdriver, they would ask for explanation).

Resulting in this position.

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

Good point

But then agreeing with Budja.
I don't understand vollkan's thought process here. I thought he said just in previous post not realising the connection+supporting plan seems extremely unlikely, how is calling this joining dots changing the thing?
(Funnily enough, if I could understand the thought process, this little snippet I would see as vollkan's most townie post.)
Iso 13 calls Adel's point about referencing accounting team list "better", switching back to original pov.
Iso 14 deems FL case weakest of Ren, Sens, FL.

I always thought the case on FL was not that strong and easily explained by poor reading.

Again, I am still baffled as to what was so poor about the FL case

Clearly mixes up stuff here (same post wants Adel to comment on himself finding the case weak), next post says was thinking about Sens.
This is forst post during the quicklynch business, fails to comment on it yet.

That's the reason I asked Adel about my thoughts on the FL case at the end. To be clear, if it wasn't from my quoted thoughts, I just can't see what is so damning about the reaction to Seraph's death. Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

I have trouble discerning from this whether he thinks votes are justified or not; strategic thing is legitimate but case not enough, ?
In 4 more posts hammers FL.

His accusation of Budja in nutshell:

What I am driving at here is that it seems to me that, when Adel presented an easy lynch strategy, you contradicted your earlier reasoning process, which suggests opportunism.

Which is a reasonable point; it came also to my mind, mostly for the reason that Budja deemed FL scummy in his vote post when he earlier had not. But his own confusing sequence of opinions I find at least as strange.

------

For what it's worth:

Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.

During my read I thought it was fairly likely.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, you suggested that the scum would have killed me yesterday even if Ren was scum. You suggested they were willing to get rid of one of their own to get rid of me, the most valuable role to the town. So I would expect you believe that the scum would have killed me had I given them jailkeeper.

The difference being that yesterday Ren looked like he was going to get lynched no matter what.

And regardless of how obvious you think it might be, you cannot obviously believe the scum would not find someone on the accounting team to be a threat? It would be much safer for scum to attempt a kill on one of them, rather than risk hitting the bulletproof with TDC.

Eh. Even if the scum didn't predict what you were going to to it's, at worst, a 1/6 chance that TDC ends up with bulletproof. This is the same scum group that tried to kill you even though there was a much higher chance then that that you'd get bus driven.

Yos, you need to answer this now. Did you take the tracker role?

No. I suggested it might be safer if Goat take the bulletproof role but I left the choice up to him, and he took the tracker role.

[Yosarian2]

He still made a case against you, and he has posted many reasons why he believes you to be scum.

Ok, name 1 good reason he's given for why he thinks I'm scum.

[scotmany12]

He still made a case against you, and he has posted many reasons why he believes you to be scum.

Ok, name 1 good reason he's given for why he thinks I'm scum.

You not starting either bandwagon even though you claimed to have. You did not start the Ren wagon, and you most certainly did not start the Sens wagon.

And frankly, it doesn't matter if you think they are good points or not. He has made a case against you, something you seem to deny.

[scotmany12]

Yos, you suggested that the scum would have killed me yesterday even if Ren was scum. You suggested they were willing to get rid of one of their own to get rid of me, the most valuable role to the town. So I would expect you believe that the scum would have killed me had I given them jailkeeper.

The difference being that yesterday Ren looked like he was going to get lynched no matter what.

No it didn't. Scum had no way of knowing how the town would have reacted with the selfvote. The wagon on Ren was never as strong as you might want to think, and it did not look like Ren would have been lynched regardless.

[Yosarian2]

You not starting either bandwagon even though you claimed to have. You did not start the Ren wagon, and you most certainly did not start the Sens wagon.

I feel like I'm responsible for startign both wagons; my second vote on the ren wagon, and then pushing it, really got that one going, and my arguments against sens were responsible for the sens wagon starting.

And frankly, it doesn't matter if you think they are good points or not. He has made a case against you, something you seem to deny.

Eh, we're arguing semantics here, I think; you seem to have a different idea of what a "case" is then I do. 's not really important.

[Yosarian2]

No it didn't. Scum had no way of knowing how the town would have reacted with the selfvote. The wagon on Ren was never as strong as you might want to think, and it did not look like Ren would have been lynched regardless.

Eh...I was pretty sure Ren was going to be lynched yesterday. I think the only thing that prevented it was Adel's speedlynch on FL; if it wasn't for then, I think Ren would almost certanly have gotten lynched yesterday.

[scotmany12]

And frankly, it doesn't matter if you think they are good points or not. He has made a case against you, something you seem to deny.

Eh, we're arguing semantics here, I think; you seem to have a different idea of what a "case" is then I do. 's not really important.

No it is important, because you said OGML never gave any reason to vote for you, when in reality, he has given his reasons. Whether or not someone agrees with your reasoning is irrelevant, he still gave reasons for his vote.

No. I suggested it might be safer if Goat take the bulletproof role but I left the choice up to him, and he took the tracker role.

If it was obvious that you/Goat were going to get bulletproof, why did it matter who took it? As long as your group had it, you were both protected. As town I would expect you to suggest Goat to take the tracker role, as he is pretty close to being confirmed town. I wouldn't have expected you to even try to take the tracker role as town.

[Yosarian2]

If it was obvious that you/Goat were going to get bulletproof, why did it matter who took it? As long as your group had it, you were both protected.

Well, I was a little concerned since the scum are apparently prone to taking high-risk kill attempts, like trying to kill you day 1 even though there was a high chance you were going to be bus driven. That made me unsure about trying to play this kind of WIFOM game with the scum group; based on that, it wouldn't have surprised me if they'd said "fuck it, let's just try to kill the confirmed innocent and see what happens."

[SensFan]

Got prodded.

Am in the US, won't be home until tomorrow night late. I'll catch up when I can.

[Ren Hoek]

But SensFan you've been posting all over the site.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies for the long post. Catching up to two new pages is a lot of work, and I know that haven't comfortably studied the last couple of pages of discussion. To those in roughly the same situation, sorry for adding another long post to the list.

I was saying that very early D1 wagons, even if large, don't usually lead quicklynch on this site, and your analysis was from the pov that Ren-scum would have in any case had to choose the kill in this moment. I was thinking wouldn't it be likelier for Ren-scum to want to wait if a less potentially catastrophic moment comes, if not, then make the 70% suicide play later. The wagon formed in a couple of very early days after all.

I wasn't talking about a quicklynch on Ren Hoek, I was talking about an eventual lynch on Ren Hoek. If scum Ren Hoek decided to take the risk of lynching scotmany, that was the moment to do it. Ren was at L-1, and unlikely to be lynched soon, precisely because of that reluctance to quicklynch you mention. The kill of scotmany is only good for Ren if he is at L-1, and only if he isn't lynched in the proces. Later in the game, he can't be guaranteed to be at L-1 without being lynched for the time it could take the kill to resolve.

Michel, you make some wild assumptions that aren't necessarily accurate.

I'm going to have to politely disagree with this.

You assume the scum ran through all those calculations when determining their kill, and then picked one that was the best possible for them.

I do not believe I've made this assumption. I assumed that the mafia was more likely to make the kill that's better for them, and therefore, that if a kill is made that is not optimal for a certain player as mafia, that player is less likely to be scum.

Secondly, you assume that the mafia uses the same calculations you do.

I have explained why I made these calculations. AFAIK, they are based on solid assumptions and are mathematically correct. I believe they are solid enough to determine optimal play for mafia. I am completely unsure where I use the assumption that the mafia uses the same calculations. Can you please point out the part in my reasoning proces where I use that assumption?

Thirdly, you start from the assumption Ren is scum and then say "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum." You're starting with the conclusion you're trying to prove. Trying to kill scot might have been the best play for other players as well.

You are incorrect there. When I assumed that Ren is scum, all I was trying to prove was that "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum.". That is definately not the conclusion I started with.

Jesus Christ MS brings math….not pretending to understand any of that post. To me there seems to be a ton of assumptions in it.

Most of those assumptions are to be able to systematically investigate each possibility. Assume that Goatrevolt is town, then ... Assume that Goatrevolt is scum, then ...

He also makes the assumption that scum would be totally fine with letting Ren die.

Not true. When considering the possibility that Ren is scum, I called the situation that scumkill is redirected to Ren horrible. I assumed that the scum would be fine with seeing Ren lynched immediately, as in that situation, he would probably be lynched eventually.

He also ignores the situation where scum wanted to get rid of two town roles with one kill.

Good point, but not completely true. In my assumption that Ren is town, I should have included the possibility that the scumkill would be redirected from Scotmany to someone not on the Ren Hoek wagon. I'm not sure what difference that makes. I'll redo the calculation when I have the time. Besides that, though, the possibility that Ren Hoek is lynched is listed where appropriate.

I don't like Michel's vote on Ren at all. He simply pulls out a lot of calculations and assumptions, none of which are concrete.

Have you understood my reasoning? If you did, I would really like to know what part you don't consider concrete. I have explained each calculation and each assumption.

Eh...I was pretty sure Ren was going to be lynched yesterday. I think the only thing that prevented it was Adel's speedlynch on FL; if it wasn't for then, I think Ren would almost certanly have gotten lynched yesterday.

Sorry Yos, but I have to disagree with this. After Seraphim got lynched, a Ren Hoek wasn't going to happen. Due to his selfvote and the claimed busdrive, it looked like scum were trying to get him lynched (mainly because he suggested scum were trying to do exactly that). To most players, this confirmed him as innocent. Before that kill, he was certainly going to be the lynch though.

But SensFan you've been posting all over the site.

I am assuming that the rest of the site doesn't have about six pages with massive posts he hasn't read yet.

[Ren Hoek]

But SensFan you've been posting all over the site.

I am assuming that the rest of the site doesn't have about six pages with massive posts he hasn't read yet.

He has been posting elsewhere on a REGULAR BASIS, right? Why assume that he has not read all of 6 pages with massive posts? Is that what he told you in the QT? That he hasn't read the last 6 pages?

[Goatrevolt]

What's the case on Yosarian? The two points I see against him are:
1. Iffy reasoning on Adel = town (I tend to agree with the conclusion, but not the reasoning).
2. Should be voting SensFan but isn't (only meaningful if Sens is scum).

I find him mildly scummy, more so if Sens is scum, but I don't think he's anywhere close to Sens and Vollkan in scumminess.

We should be lynching one of those two today. Preferably Sens.

[Budja]

I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.

Tracking result from Adel is a null tell. Scum-Adel might get goat lynched but would be likely lynched the next day.

From my perspective, Yos/Goat getting the tracker/bulletproof was obvious given the suspicion on Sens.

For a wagon with as much support as SensFan's wagon has, it's surprising how far he is away from being lynched. Scum not ready to bus yet?

QFT, most people seem to see Sens as scummy but no votes?

(still reading...)

[vollkan]

As town you have legitimate suspicions of people. When you think someone is town, you have actual reasons to think they are town. When you think someone is scum you have actual reasons to think they are scum. Townies are unlikely to confuse their stance on someone because it's what they truly believe.

On the other hand, scum are faking their stances on everyone. Scum are far more likely to confuse their stance on someone because they forgot that they had written them off as town or scum earlier, etc. They're faking all their suspicions, so it can catch up to scum if they don't keep on top of what they've said at all points.

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.

Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance".

Ok. Elaborate on your stance on Budja for me. You listed him as moderately scummy, but now he's a strong suspicion. Is it based on that one post alone? What about post 8 in his iso read, that you gave him town cred for?

You're playing at semantics here. Somebody who is moderately scummy (ie. not obv scum) can still be a strong suspect. And, yes, post 8 gets town cred which is partly, aside from the general lack of material to make a clear judgment on, another reason for me not considering him obv scum.

See I don't agree. I think Budja has provided his opinions on any topic he's been asked to as well. What constitutes a proper question or not is pretty subjective, and I'm not sure "who has asked the most proper questions" is a good gauge for scum finding anyway.

"on any topic he's been asked to". Which is exactly what one would expect from scum trying to law low.

And I explained what I found problematic with Budja's questioning, so rather than simply zeroing in on the phrase "proper question", you could try and explain what is wrong with what I actually posted in relation to Budja's questioning, ie:

when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part

I don't find anything glaringly wrong with that stance. For the record, that was quite similar to my own stance on FL.

I'm pleased to see that you haven't read my post.

My issue was not with his stance; it was with his change in stance and the subsequent failure to explain it.

This is confusing. You merge your opinions of Adel/Sensfan together and I have no clue what your actual stance on either is.

Adel: Town or scum?
Sens: Town or scum?

I was talking entirely about Sens in that post; I don't know why I wrote Adel in.

For simplicity's sake and to end this line of questioning, I'm going to go back to my old rating system briefly.

Adel: 60. As I said before, by and large nothing in his play struck me as out of the ordinary. That was until the blowup where his play went belly-up with the desperation votes. The 10 point bump (from 50 to 60) comes from those actions; not from the blowup itself). But, I should add, I'm really hesistant about my reading of Adel because I don't know how much weight to place on the blowup actions. I'm ope

Sens: 70 (explained in my other posts)

(0 = absolute town, 50 = neutral, 100 = absolute scum)

You are still assuming that somehow contradicting yourself or changing your mind is inherently scummy, which I completly disagree with.

If Person X thinks person Y is town, then they re-think things, or something dosn't sit right, or they have a gut feeling, or whatever, and they change their mind and vote person Y, that's not a scum tell at all. Town should do that.

No. The stuff earlier regarding my own change of mind should have indicated that that isn't my view.

Stated simply, my opinion is:

Scum are more likely than town to change their mind without good reason for doing so.

It isn't scummy to change your mind. It is scummy if there is no clear pathway of reasoning that would lead to that change of mind.

If Adel's actions were good pro-town behavior, for whatever reason (and yes, gathering infromation can be a good reason), then how could that possibly be "irrelevent to the question of whether or not adel is scummy"?? That dosn't make sense, Volkan.

It's a very long bow to draw to say that Adel going weird and suddenly changing her mind without any explanation is pro-town because people's reactions will be meaningful. By that sort of definition, virtually any action can be construed as pro-town.

Wow really? How many games have you been in with him? In my opinion, this is not typical Adeltown play. At first, I thought it was because of structure of the game, but after his wide net I am certain Adel is/was scum. Not to mention later he then abandons that net to try to discredit one of his opponents.

Adel casts a wide net as scum? This is a game where Adel didn't seem to really have any extremely strong suspicions (understandably, imo) and so I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Adel may have been dealing with that by trying to go as broad as possible.

So? He used it to lynch a townie. I understand it was “tactically” sound. But still does that make it a pro-town move? I think Adel exploited the game mechanics to push his agenda.

Maybe, but I can also see town-Adel pushing exactly the same sort of case against FL. It's one of those rare circumstances where town and scum will act identically.

Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.

I thought so, just because tracker is a role you want used responsibly, and Goat is the obvious choice for that.

I don't understand vollkan's thought process here. I thought he said just in previous post not realising the connection+supporting plan seems extremely unlikely, how is calling this joining dots changing the thing?

When I made my initial point about connection+supporting I assumed that a player who understood the plan at one point in time would understand it later on; and Budja made me realise that was inaccurate.

I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.

Tracking result from Adel is a null tell. Scum-Adel might get goat lynched but would be likely lynched the next day.

From my perspective, Yos/Goat getting the tracker/bulletproof was obvious given the suspicion on Sens.

For a wagon with as much support as SensFan's wagon has, it's surprising how far he is away from being lynched. Scum not ready to bus yet?

QFT, most people seem to see Sens as scummy but no votes?

(still reading...)

Please respond to my last post.

[Ojanen]

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.
Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance"

It does really seem that you were confusing your FL stance though:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens: [etc. etc.]

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

[Ren Hoek]

vollkan tends to throw people off the rails with the way he evaluates players. Sometimes he is inconsistent. While I approve of pressuring vollkan, the inconsistency in his position is a null tell.

I do have some questions for vollkan.

Vollkan, I'm trying to decide who I rooting for to be lynched. I'm thinking along the lines of Yosarian, MSH, Budja, or SensFan (his lurking is damning).

Which of these 4 players should I vote for, and why?

[vollkan]

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.
Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance"

It does really seem that you were confusing your FL stance though:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens: [etc. etc.]

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

We seem to be talking at cross-purposes. There are two different definitions of confused floating around in the discussion.

When Goat was bringing up the issue of "confused", he was talking in terms of losing track of what one's opinion was and shifting as a result. See here:

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

Now, in the first quote you pulled up, you've omitted the details which provide context:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens:

I'd go with Volkan's list, except he appears to not really care about looking at the attack in detail, given he missed the relevence about me not having any votes, and threw some general nondescript about how certain words I used are "an easy way to smear", without saying why they were bad in this case.

What was the relevance of you not having votes on you? I really don't see what the link is here. You having no votes on you has no bearing on whether or not voting someone else to L-1 is chicken

Sens had said that my argument against him was basically missing a lot of detail when, to me, it seemed pretty straightforward. I had in my mind that "case has been called weak, but I don't think it is" but wrongly applied that thought.

In short, I wasn't commenting at all on the FL case. Your selective quoting just gives that impression.

As for the second one, your quoting is more understandable, but it comes down to the definitional issue above. I wasn't confused about where I stood on FL. What confused me was that my posting record didn't match that.

To restate:
1) Case on FL arises
2) Budja raises failure to connect the dots
3) I agree
4) Adel criticises
5) I change my mind (as acknowledged in thread)
6) I begin rereading
7) I see fault in Adel's criticism when rereading for the relative evaluation and come to disagree with her and revert to my position in 3).
8) I post that change of opinion until the relative evaluation where I explicitly raise Budja's point.

There's a change of view there, but no unjustified inconsistency. The only issue comes from the fact that, in 8), I never actually directly addressed Adel's criticism. My comments there (at the bottom of the relative evaluation) reflect that I had changed my mind on Adel's criticism and the reasons for doing so, but I never explicitly said "I've changed my mind because..."

Vollkan, I'm trying to decide who I rooting for to be lynched. I'm thinking along the lines of Yosarian, MSH, Budja, or SensFan (his lurking is damning).

Which of these 4 players should I vote for, and why?

Budja.

I would also see a Sens vote as acceptable, for combined scumminess (for reasons I have given) and lurking

I haven't been able to see a clear rationale for suspecting Yos or MSH

[Yosarian2]

You are still assuming that somehow contradicting yourself or changing your mind is inherently scummy, which I completly disagree with.

If Person X thinks person Y is town, then they re-think things, or something dosn't sit right, or they have a gut feeling, or whatever, and they change their mind and vote person Y, that's not a scum tell at all. Town should do that.

No. The stuff earlier regarding my own change of mind should have indicated that that isn't my view.

Stated simply, my opinion is:

Scum are more likely than town to change their mind without good reason for doing so.

I don't think that's at all true; scum tend to be resistant to doing that, because people always get attacked for it, while town should be willing to change their mind as unpredictably as possible.

Why do you think that scum are more willing to change their minds?

It isn't scummy to change your mind. It is scummy if there is no clear pathway of reasoning that would lead to that change of mind.

You keep saying this, but why? I think it's a pro-town way to act (that is, a way to act that helps the town; the opposite of anti-town.)

It's a very long bow to draw to say that Adel going weird and suddenly changing her mind without any explanation is pro-town because people's reactions will be meaningful. By that sort of definition, virtually any action can be construed as pro-town.

Well, no; actions are pro-town they help the town. If changing your mind suddenly dosn't at all hurt the town (and it dosn't), and if doing like that gets reactions that give the town tons of information, then it is pro-town.