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[Ojanen]

Lost access after finishing the read and posting in the qt yesterday; now on the road. All my thoughts coming in 7 hours or so once I get home.

[MichelSableheart]

I've promised a thorough analysis of the circumstances surrounding the dead of Seraphim.

I'm going to start of with the assumption that Goatrevolt is either mafia or town. In the flavour, I see no indication whatsoever for the presence of neutrals. Only one kill happened day 1, when we didn't have any mechanics that could stop a kill, so an SK is definately out.

If Gr is town, He chose to drive from scotmany to seraphim. However, the mafia did not know whom he chose as his busdrive targets. I'll use these percentages as an estimation of the chance that each target was chosen. I believe they roughly match the chances in Adel's plan (the CD is most important, so he is most likely busdriven. The CEO is the other target that needs to be protected. The drive almost certainly goes to an account executive, with those being most scummy being the most likely targets), at least enough to get an acceptable estimate of what the scum could expect to happen.

First target:
scotmany 75%
Faerielord 25%

Second target:
Ren Hoek 30%
Seraphim 30%
crywolf 10%
curiouskarmadog 10%
nuwen 10%
somebody else 10%

(still under the assumption that Gr is town) Because seraphim died, we know that the mafia tried to kill scotmany.

The first player I'm going to evaluate is scotmany. If he is scum, trying to kill Faerielord would simply have been a superiour plan then trying to kill scotmany. The chance of a scummember dying are much, much smaller (FL is town after all). The only reason for mafia I can think of to try to kill scotmany in this situation is if they want to get him confirmed innocent through a busdriver claim. But with the possibility that the busdriver tries to protect FaerieLord around, I don't think that is a risk mafia would be willing to take. Therefore, if Gr is town, then scotmany must be town too.

The second player to evaluate is Ren Hoek. Assuming he is scum, I believe four things could happen when the scum tried to kill scotmany. The first possibility is that scotmany would die, and as a result, Ren Hoek would be lynched. This would be acceptable to scum. The town loses it's most important powerrole in exchange for a scum. The second possibilitity is that the kill is busdriven from scotmany to Ren Hoek. This would be horrible for scum. Not only do they lose a scummember, but the town gains an extra lynch with the knowledge that RH was scum! The third possibility is that the kill is redirected to someone on the RH wagon. That would be wonderful for scum, as it would virtually clear Ren Hoek. Finally, the kill can be redirected to someone who is not on the RH wagon. This would lead to a kill and a lynch of Ren Hoek. This would be slightly worse then trying to kill someone else, where the mafia at least would have had the choice who died.
Scotmany dies. Ren Hoek lynched. chance 25%. result: acceptable
Ren Hoek dies. Chance .75 x .3 = 22.5%. result: horrible
Seraphim dies. Chance 22.5%. result: wonderful
crywolf/ckd/nuwen dies. Ren Hoek lynched. chance 3 x .075 = 22.5%. result: bad.
somebody else dies. chance 7.5%. result: difficult to evaluate.
Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out. All other nightkills had a worse expectancy for RH scum. The chance of scotmany dying would be smaller (targeting Seraphim, for instance, only gives a 22.5% chance of scotmany dying given the assumptions above), and the chance of Ren Hoek becoming "confirmed innocent" would be nonexistant. If Gr is town, Ren Hoek can very well be scum. Especially considering that the possibility of him becoming "confirmed" only exist after he selfvoted, and that he was aware of that. For the next couple of paragraphs, I'm going to assume that Ren Hoek is Town though.

For Crywolf, CKD or Nuwen, scum, targeting scotmany results in the following chances:
Scotmany dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 25%
scum dies: .75 x .10 = 7.5%
Ren Hoek dies: 22.5%
Somebody else dies: 45%
Targeting Seraphim OTOH, results in the following chances:
Seraphim dies: 70%
Scotmany dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 22.5%
FaerieLord dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 7.5%
scum dies: 0%
It seems to me that targeting seraphim with the kill would be better for scum in this case. The chance of a powerrole dying is better, the chance of the primary lynch target dying (rather then being lynched) is nonexistant, and the chance of scum dying is zero. I believe it is highly unlikely that crywolf, CKD or Nuwen are scum if Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek are town.

For everybody else, roughly the same reasoning applies, except that they don't run a small risk of scum dying through a busdrive. Still though, the chance of killing the primary lynchtarget, plus the fact that the chance of killing a powerrole is smaller, would make Seraphim a better kill target then scotmany. The kill of scotmany doesn't make much sense there.

Assuming that Goatrevolt is town, the kill of scotmany makes by far the most sense if Ren Hoek is scum. It is the optimal kill for mafia if he is scum, whereas there are better kills for mafia available when he is town.

Now, I'm going to drop all previous assumptions and assume that Goatrevolt is scum. Somebody other then goatrevolt would have needed to make the kill, but it is a possibility. This changes the situation completely. First of all, the only thing we know for sure is that Goatrevolt drove from scotmany to somebody else. That somebody else could be Seraphim, we don't know for sure. Anyway, in this case, the mafia knew for sure that Seraphim would die. They did not attempt to kill scotmany, they wanted to kill seraphim. Rereading seraphim, I see absolutely no reason why seraphim in particular would be threatening to the scum. He had been away a couple of days when the kill happened. He was no threat to anybody whatsoever. The only result of that kill was that three people got virtually confirmed: goatrevolt, scotmany, and Ren Hoek. I don't think the mafia could have been certain enough that goatrevolt was tracked to make the kill for that reason alone. I believe that the mafia wanted to "confirm" either scotmany or Ren Hoek. Out of the two, I believe that Ren Hoek is much more likely. First of all, he was in danger of being lynched, so the kill basically safed him. Secondly, he was cleared mainly because he was at L-1, which in turn was a direct result of the fact that he selfvoted. He actually took actions to allow the kill of seraphim to clear him. And thirdly, Goatrevolt's (who we are assuming is scum) very first post after the kill claimed that Ren Hoek was cleared. If Goatrevolt is scum, Ren Hoek is almost certainly scum in my opinion.

Conclusions:

If Goatrevolt is town, then scotmany is town.
If Goatrevolt is town, and Ren Hoek is town, then crywolf, CKD and nuwen are all very likely town.
If Goatrevolt is town, and Ren Hoek is town, then everybody else is likely town.
Therefore, if Goatrevolt is town, Ren Hoek is very likely scum.
If Goatrevolt is scum, Ren Hoek is very likely scum.
Ren Hoek is very likely scum.

Unvote

Vote: Ren Hoek

[Ojanen]

Since the Seraphim kill is such a pivotal point in the game and much of the reads depend on that I'll comment to MichelSableheart first.
I'm not sure I'm fully grasping his way of thinking yet.

At the point of the game day 1 working hours had been going on for 5 days. The wagon was on L-2 without Ren, but I'm not used to seeing quicklynching wagons on this site. I'm not sure it's a great assumption to think that the scum was assuming to be stuck in the voting position it was currently in to make the nightkill if Ren would be scum. Seems like would be more credible to see if the position changes rather than playing incredibly risky.

Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out.

what are you saying here? "Wonderful 22,5%" and "horrible 22,5%" cancel each other out, 25% "acceptable" and 22,5% bad cancel each other out, plus the rest difficult to evaluate stuff?
What does "canceling out" mean in this context and scum psychology and stuff?
I just see that your percentages put the chances of ren dying by way the nightkill to 70%.
Without the selfvote, the chances of him dying because of the nk are, if we accept your percentages, 22,5% (he also still gets some credibility from theory of "scum not afraid of getting busdriven").
It would be just very suicidal very early, unusual scumplay.

For the record, my assumption of Ren's alignment was (is) town after the catching up, largely because of this chain of events.

[Ojanen]

@MS:
The postulate that GR is scum with Ren assumes scum wouldn't mind confirming the scotmany in the process (unless you actually think all are scum?). In your calculations you deem the CD a very important powerrole, important enough that the demise of Ren is acceptable if scotmany is killed. Do you think there's contradiction in that, especially when in that scenario scum could have killed scotmany without killing Ren in the process if Ren hadn't selfvoted?

[Yosarian2]

Consistancy is a scum tell.

Town can and should always be willing to change their minds 180 degrees in the blink of an eye when given new information, or just when re-assesing old information. In fact, it's generally better if they do; makes it harder for scum to manipulate town using the nightkill to keep those alive who trust them and kill those who don't. The only people who should be worried about consistancy are scum, because they're more worried about being lynched then about how they look.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do.

You're conflating two completely different things here. Nobody is saying that Adel is scummy for changing his mind. The problem is that he changed her mind

without any apparent basis for doing so

Assume that at time =

t

, Person X suspects Person Y for reason A.
If, at any time= >

t

, Person X does not suspect Person Y for reason then, all else being equal (ie. no new reasons), Person X at time = >

t

is contradicting Person X at time =

t

.

You are still assuming that somehow contradicting yourself or changing your mind is inherently scummy, which I completly disagree with.

If Person X thinks person Y is town, then they re-think things, or something dosn't sit right, or they have a gut feeling, or whatever, and they change their mind and vote person Y, that's not a scum tell at all. Town should do that.

If you think that anyone voting for sensfan at the time Adel did would have been scummy, then that's one thing. But there's no reason to evaluate Adel's vote any differently just because at one point earlier in the game he had a different opinion.

For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Yes, but that is completely irrelevant as to the question of whether or not Adel is scummy.

If Adel's actions were good pro-town behavior, for whatever reason (and yes, gathering infromation can be a good reason), then how could that possibly be "irrelevent to the question of whether or not adel is scummy"?? That dosn't make sense, Volkan.

[MichelSableheart]

At the point of the game day 1 working hours had been going on for 5 days. The wagon was on L-2 without Ren, but I'm not used to seeing quicklynching wagons on this site. I'm not sure it's a great assumption to think that the scum was assuming to be stuck in the voting position it was currently in to make the nightkill if Ren would be scum. Seems like would be more credible to see if the position changes rather than playing incredibly risky.

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying here. According to gamerule 27d, the kill was submitted somewhere between 0 and 24 hours before it was posted in the thread. Ren Hoek was placed at L-1 5.5 hours before the kill happened. Ren Hoek was placed at L-2 12 hours before the kill happened. He was placed at L-3 21 hours before the kill, and at L-4 23 hours before the kill. At the moment the kill was submitted, the bandwagon definately was on full speed, and quite likely at either L-2 or L-1. I hope this answers your concerns, if not, please explain more clearly what you mean.

Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out.

what are you saying here? "Wonderful 22,5%" and "horrible 22,5%" cancel each other out, 25% "acceptable" and 22,5% bad cancel each other out, plus the rest difficult to evaluate stuff?
What does "canceling out" mean in this context and scum psychology and stuff?
I just see that your percentages put the chances of ren dying by way the nightkill to 70%.
Without the selfvote, the chances of him dying because of the nk are, if we accept your percentages, 22,5% (he also still gets some credibility from theory of "scum not afraid of getting busdriven").
It would be just very suicidal very early, unusual scumplay.

I am trying to evaluate how good a kill of scotmany is for scum given that Ren Hoek is scum. If the result of your action is either very good, or very bad, with equal chances, then the two cancel each other out, and the overall expectancy of the action would be neutral. I conclude that if Ren Hoek is scum, trying to kill scotmany has a neutral expectancy for scum, and that for all other actions, the expectancy for scum is worse. This because a lynch of Ren Hoek was at that point in time almost guaranteed.

@MS:
The postulate that GR is scum with Ren assumes scum wouldn't mind confirming the scotmany in the process (unless you actually think all are scum?). In your calculations you deem the CD a very important powerrole, important enough that the demise of Ren is acceptable if scotmany is killed. Do you think there's contradiction in that, especially when in that scenario scum could have killed scotmany without killing Ren in the process if Ren hadn't selfvoted?

Goatrevolt scum would be "confirmed innocent" in a creative team with Yosarian2. I believe that in that position, he has enough influence to neutralize most powerroles that are dangerous to the scum.

Killing scotmany would almost certainly, though not immediately, lead to a lynch on Ren Hoek. That is acceptable, for scum, but getting two scummembers "confirmed innocent" just seems better.

[Ojanen]

Regarding Adel (=Michel).
I think the case on him (written by ckd in 705) is reasonably strong. To be totally precise, the case gives me a townish feeling of honest scumhunting from ckd (so tell on ckd's alignment), and several of the points feel reasonable potential scumtells.
I recognize that I harbor more paranoia when it comes to Adel than most of anyone because of his aura in the site and he did give also townish signals to me, but I found some things genuinely questionable.

So FL quicklynch.
@People on that wagon (Michel too, if he has thoughts)

... and it needs to be a quicklynch so that the scum team won't have a chance to discover the optimal tactic to use from this point to defend FL.

Please give me your best guess of what Adel meant by this. FL-scum self-nominating to being new CD or what?
I feel like I'm missing something. Looked to me like doing the campaign at that point woud have risked several days of powerroles actually unless FL just wanted to out himself as confirmed scum out of nowhere.

Ha. Erased thought. I had a point here about the FL attack timing but I only just now realized that a Seraphim kill indicated scotmany town already in itself without the busdrive information.

I'm trying to think in which way the claimed tracking result is a significant signal. It seems a noticeable coincidence that the pattern went as it went, giving Goat more credibility.

@people inclined to lynch Adel/Michel, what do you think about the tracking result regards to scum motivation?

------

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying here. According to gamerule 27d, the kill was submitted somewhere between 0 and 24 hours before it was posted in the thread. Ren Hoek was placed at L-1 5.5 hours before the kill happened. Ren Hoek was placed at L-2 12 hours before the kill happened. He was placed at L-3 21 hours before the kill, and at L-4 23 hours before the kill. At the moment the kill was submitted, the bandwagon definately was on full speed, and quite likely at either L-2 or L-1. I hope this answers your concerns, if not, please explain more clearly what you mean.

I was saying that very early D1 wagons, even if large, don't usually lead quicklynch on this site, and your analysis was from the pov that Ren-scum would have in any case had to choose the kill in this moment. I was thinking wouldn't it be likelier for Ren-scum to want to wait if a less potentially catastrophic moment comes, if not, then make the 70% suicide play later. The wagon formed in a couple of very early days after all.

[Yosarian2]

... and it needs to be a quicklynch so that the scum team won't have a chance to discover the optimal tactic to use from this point to defend FL.

Please give me your best guess of what Adel meant by this. FL-scum self-nominating to being new CD or what?

If FL was scum, and he had realized he was about to be quicklynched, he would use his one-shot ability and appoint someone new as CD, yeah. At the point Adel made that post, I think he was trying to not actually spell it out, so as to not accdiently tell FL scum what to do.

[Ojanen]

..but if FL was scum, would it have been plausible that he would have outed himself early by appointing someone new as CD if not under Adel's pressure? Seems at first glance like the cause of the loss of reliable powerroles would have been the quicklynch threat rather than the dormant ability. Unless I'm grossly underestimating the benefit of scum getting rid of confirmed creative director regards to losing one of their own.

[Yosarian2]

..but if FL was scum, would it have been plausible that he would have outed himself early by appointing someone new as CD if not under Adel's pressure?

He would have eventually used his ability, is the thing. He might have appointed a scumbuddy, or he might have appointed someone on the theory that we'd assume that person is his scumbuddy, ect.

If FL was scum, he would have to be lynched eventually if town were to win, and he would always be able use his ability before being lynched to screw over the town. Unless he was suddenly speedlynched when he wasn't on and wasn't expecting it.

[Ojanen]

Hmm. Despite of the eventuality, why is it good to attempt this speedlynch on day 1 rather than later? If it doesn't succeed and FL-scum would happen to be online after all, town would be screwed of several days of powerroles because of it.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. Despite of the eventuality, why is it good to attempt this speedlynch on day 1 rather than later? If it doesn't succeed and FL-scum would happen to be online after all, town would be screwed of several days of powerroles because of it.

Fair enough. Adel's play was risky.

I would guess that the timing of Adel's play was related to us finding out Scotmany was confirmed; once he was confirmed, it became more important to make sure that he couldn't be removed from the CD position.

[Ojanen]

Well regarding the timing, you know, I potentially just understood a bunch more about Adel's actions when I was writing 806. The bizarre attack on FaerieLord about not understanding/understanding the plan and harping about it. Connected to this quote I originally viewed as really strange:

trying to get FL lynched without pointing out to FL-scum how he could screw us was tricky. Trying to get it done occupied most of my brain cycles.
Finally I had to spell it all out to get it done. I identified a 6 hour window when FL is almost never online, and posted my detailed post at the begininng of that window.

Adel did the quicklynch campaign the same day Goatrevolt claimed busdriver, so that couldn't have been the cause of the earlier FaerieLord attack. The earlier attack was directly after Seraphim was killed. I hadn't thought that the Seraphim kill would indicate Scotmany town but it does, unless busdriver is scum, right? Adel brings some points against scotmany afterwards which doesn't quite fit though. Could be trying to stay non-transparent if FL was scum.

[Goatrevolt]

Michel, you make some wild assumptions that aren't necessarily accurate. You assume the scum ran through all those calculations when determining their kill, and then picked one that was the best possible for them. Secondly, you assume that the mafia uses the same calculations you do. Thirdly, you start from the assumption Ren is scum and then say "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum." You're starting with the conclusion you're trying to prove. Trying to kill scot might have been the best play for other players as well.

Ojanen: The seraphim kill means scot is town. It would mean he was very likely town even if there wasn't my bus drive involved. Let's assume the scum actually killed Seraphim. Why would they do that? Presumably trying to get bus driven back to Scot.

[Goatrevolt]

Regarding the quicklynch of FL: If FL appointed himself as CD, we were screwed. That combined with individual evidence against him combined with evidence to suggest Ren (the main wagon) was town, made a FL lynch a good play.

[OhGodMyLife]

Yos' lurkervote is

so lame

right now.

[Ojanen]

I find Sensfan's inaccuracy in referencing back to their creative team quicktopic baffling. Like he wants Adel to be his fallguy and he's trying to do the same.

Vote: FL

Why would you possibly be disappointed that we have 11 pages of game-related stuff to vote based on, rather than nothing?

He was upset that we were in a position of a fixed deadline, except we were essentially entering D1 with 11 pages of discussion. But, ummmm...that's a hell of a lot better than it would be to start with a 'random' phase.

After that continuously tying himself to Adel and implying qt use:

Especially since all the points raised against FL (by both Adel and myself) have been explained quite thoroughly.

Furthermore, the arguments against FL have been explained quite well by both myself and Adel - and don't forget the two of us can talk outside of this thread

I was the first person to go after FL.

Except you entirely dropped it until Adel brought it up again

First of all, I don't recall dropping it in here.
Secondly, and Adel can vouch for me here, I haven't dropped it at all in our QT.

When you look at the QT screenshot here, sensfan had zero initiative about FL before Adel brought it up and there was zero reasoning in the thread about it from sens.

Also:

Don't worry, Adel commented plenty about how he feels about the wagon forming on me.

This is "plenty": "I don't understand why people are so eager to go after your wagon and not FL's or Ren's I'm taking it as a town tell for you."

[curiouskarmadog]

Updating as (re)reading from y Adel case on page 29..

Also, I want to see both Sens and Adel's reactions to what has occurred recently.

this is funny seeing what has occured since.
==

1.) First and for most was his defense of Sens. Sens was acting quite scummy. His (sens) attack and vote of FL (town) was stretchy at best. Adeltown has nothing to gain by defending Sens especially in light of his actions. Adelscum defending Senstown on the other hand not only gains a buddy, but if Sens flips town, buys himself town creds.

That's bad logic, CKD.

IF you think Sensfan is town

(and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post),

then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act

. Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

the bolded is a fucking silly statement and I think someone who has played mafia as much as you knows this. there is a big difference between someone defending someone they think are town when that person is doing towny actions AND what has happened here. Sens was being all types of scummy and Adel was defending him based on...on...I am not even sure, a fucking meta? A meta that now Sens is riding hard with lurking up a storm.

I understood Adel’s FL plan. Though I felt it was hugely flawed. It was tactically correct if done quickly by design, but at any time FLscum could have screwed us. Adel had a case against FL before her strategic point….so did Sens. Neither point stuck. It feels like you exploited that strategic point to push your agenda, which was to get FL lynched. Defending Sens as town falls into line with that agenda.

trying to get FL lynched without pointing out to FL-scum how he could screw us was tricky. Trying to get it done occupied most of my brain cycles.

Finally I had to spell it all out to get it done. I identified a 6 hour window when FL is almost never online, and posted my detailed post at the begininng of that window.

I'm pretty demoralized by some out of game events right now, and how much time I've wasted on this game. After not getting lynched for a year, I was lynched early in my last two games, and now I think that I'm also going to get lynched early in this game. Fuck mafia.

Not a lot I can say to this post, since Adel quit the game. I agree with most that his melt down was a null tell. However, I think Adel knew that I had him pinned against the wall with my case. Instaed of addressing my case, he flips out. I like adel. I think he is a good mafia player, but I think that his ego took a beating and I think I caught him with my case.

When pressed by the semi confirmed scot and goat. He really flips (730) and votes Sens for the same fucking reason that he defended him for earlier. I think this was a last chance maneuver to get anything rolling instead of his lynch.

Ha!, Scot says it better here:

I'm going to say Adel, your vote on Sens really contradicts a lot of shit that you have said so far in this game.

I am mostly just pissed Adel refused to address the majority of my points before flipping out.

==

I don't have a meta on Adel, but his play hasn't struck me as that different from normal.

Wow really? How many games have you been in with him? In my opinion, this is not typical Adeltown play. At first, I thought it was because of structure of the game, but after his wide net I am certain Adel is/was scum. Not to mention later he then abandons that net to try to discredit one of his opponents.

Also, the game mechanics has mainly been in the choosing role stage (when we definitely want game mechanics discussed) and in relation to FL.

So? He used it to lynch a townie. I understand it was “tactically” sound. But still does that make it a pro-town move? I think Adel exploited the game mechanics to push his agenda.

==
TDC killed 755

Just a thought here, why would Budscum kill his only way control powers? This makes Yos, Sens, Adel, look worse in my opinion. It is all WIFOM of course, but should be considered.

==

...How exactly does the Sens vote make sense to you Yos? This is the same person that said on several occasions that he believes Sens to be town. I don't really see how Sens not posting for about a day would make him change his mind. His Sens vote is bad, and I don't know how you can view it a sensical.

I agree....this make absolutely NO sense.
==

I'm not at all convicned by CKD's case against Adel; more to the point, if I'm right and Adel is town, the timing of CKD's case, coming after OGML got the wagon moving, makes me think he's likely scum here.

Really? What if I told you in the QT thread, I was the one that got the Adel wagon "moving"? What if it was Ren? Have a feeling you would be pushing us as scum but providing different reasons.

My best guess is that what happened here is that the scum saw the two most active townies butting heads and saw the entire town starting to splinter into two groups, and they didn't want to prevent that from happening, so they killed off someone was uninvolved in the whole mess; TDC's one of the few active players who didn't take a side in the fight.

sure, his position has nothing to do with it. again scot is right...it DOES make you (and adel/sens) worse. No way am I believing that you dont see that.

==
Jesus Christ MS brings math….not pretending to understand any of that post. To me there seems to be a ton of assumptions in it.
==

At this point I am still good with my vote on Adel/MS. Sens is also looking shitty again too. He is posting everywhere else, but now that Adel gave him his free pass(Senstown probably would not post), he is using it. I also think Yos is particularly scummy as well.

I think that Adel’s break down is a null tell, but his lack of addressing my points is again telling.

Mod it is time to prod Sens.

[Goatrevolt]

At this point I am still good with my vote on Adel/MS. Sens is also looking shitty again too. He is posting everywhere else, but now that Adel gave him his free pass(

Senstown probably would not post

), he is using it. I also think Yos is particularly scummy as well.

Explain?

[scotmany12]

Michel, you make some wild assumptions that aren't necessarily accurate. You assume the scum ran through all those calculations when determining their kill, and then picked one that was the best possible for them. Secondly, you assume that the mafia uses the same calculations you do. Thirdly, you start from the assumption Ren is scum and then say "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum." You're starting with the conclusion you're trying to prove. Trying to kill scot might have been the best play for other players as well.

He also makes the assumption that scum would be totally fine with letting Ren die. He also ignores the situation where scum wanted to get rid of two town roles with one kill.

I don't like Michel's vote on Ren at all. He simply pulls out a lot of calculations and assumptions, none of which are concrete.

[Yosarian2]

Yos' lurkervote is

so lame

right now.

(nods) Thank you, OGML. Yeah, he's not lurking anymore, obviously.

Unvote

Vote:CKD

I'd be willing to lynch CKD, Bruja, or Sensfan today.

[curiouskarmadog]

At this point I am still good with my vote on Adel/MS. Sens is also looking shitty again too. He is posting everywhere else, but now that Adel gave him his free pass(

Senstown probably would not post

), he is using it. I also think Yos is particularly scummy as well.

Explain?

that was what Adel was saying...that sens lack of posting is a town tell for him.

[Goatrevolt]

I'd be willing to lynch CKD,

Bruja

, or Sensfan today.

Oh yeah? You said you thought he was town in our QT. What's changed?

[Yosarian2]

quote="Yosarian2"]
That's bad logic, CKD.

IF you think Sensfan is town

(and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post),

then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act

. Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

the bolded is a fucking silly statement and I think someone who has played mafia as much as you knows this. there is a big difference between someone defending someone they think are town when that person is doing towny actions AND what has happened here. Sens was being all types of scummy and Adel was defending him based on...on...I am not even sure, a fucking meta?[/quote]

Ok, so what if a person isn't making "townie actions", as you call them, but you think they're town for some other reason? Are you supposed to just shut up, sit back, and let them get lynched without saying anything? Of course not. If you think that a certain wagon will result in a town lynch, you should oppose it; I'm not really sure how that can even be up for debate.

So? He used it to lynch a townie. I understand it was “tactically” sound. But still does that make it a pro-town move? I think Adel exploited the game mechanics to push his agenda.

It's possible, but I think this is a case of an action that could just as likely have pro-town or anti-town motives. I'm considering it a null tell.

I agree....this make absolutely NO sense.

Why? What's wrong with Adel voting sensfan there?

I'm not at all convicned by CKD's case against Adel; more to the point, if I'm right and Adel is town, the timing of CKD's case, coming after OGML got the wagon moving, makes me think he's likely scum here.

Really? What if I told you in the QT thread, I was the one that got the Adel wagon "moving"? What if it was Ren? Have a feeling you would be pushing us as scum but providing different reasons.

Eh, I doubt it. It's pretty clear OMGL game into the game with a new perspective that was quite different from anyone else's, and that he came to different conclusions that were different; before OGML replaced in, I really think everyone thought Adel was town. I do think oppertunistic scum would take advantage of, and hide behind, an agressive player like OGML if he's wrong.

sure, his position has nothing to do with it. again scot is right...it DOES make you (and adel/sens) worse. No way am I believing that you dont see that.

Again...we've got a creative director, if 2 of them die, no more roles; creative team people he can give roles to, and if enough of them die, no more roles, and everyone else is basically a vanilla townie. If the scum can't kill Scot, I would expect them to prefer to kill a member of the creative team, no matter what role the scum happen to have. Yes, there's an added benifit if Adel/Sens or me were scum, but it dosn't relaly change anything; the scum would be expected to do that anyway.

I mean, really; how often would you expect to see a scum kill a vanilla role instead of a power role? Scum couldn't kill scot. Scum would knew that trying to kill either me or goat would likely fail, because we were likely to get bulletproof. Adel and Sensfan, if either or both of them are town, were under attack and likely to be lynched. Who would you expect scum to kill?

[Yosarian2]

Goat: I already explained this in thread. This was the point when I changed my mind and started suspecting Budja.

I had previously thought Budja looked town. However, I really don't like the way that, once other people started to say they suspected me, he suddenly and oppertunistically flipped and made a case on me; and then when I pointed out that his case against me was completly untrue, he vanished, and is now lurking. He's moved down to the scummy side of the list.

He's not actually lurking any more, but none of his posts since then have looked especally town either.