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[Yosarian2]

My best guess is that what happened here is that the scum saw the two most active townies butting heads and saw the entire town starting to splinter into two groups, and they didn't want to prevent that from happening, so they killed off someone was uninvolved in the whole mess; TDC's one of the few active players who didn't take a side in the fight.

[scotmany12]

Yos, TDC dying is a major point against you.

?

How is that?

Scum have an incentive to get rid of the creative pairs. The only people who would know that TDC-Budja do not have bulletproof are TDC-Budja (Budjascum has an incentive to keep TDCtown alive, so that he can continue getting abilities) and the creative team that I gave the bulletproof too, which is you, Yos, and Goat. Doesn't make sense for Budja to kill him, and scum in accounting wouldn't know who had the bulletproof, unless there is scum in creative. So that leaves you Yos, since I in no way believe Goat to be town.

Seeing as how you seem to be pushing for a sens lynch (I can't really tell since you haven't voted yet), that would get rid of that creative pair's ability to gain abilities, and killing TDC keeps Budjja from getting abilities. Basically, if Sens, or even Adel is lynched, you are Goat are now the only group that can get abilities (unless I reassign, even then you still have incentive to make me use my ability).

[scotmany12]

EBWOP: In no way do I belive Goat to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, TDC dying is a major point against you.

?

How is that?

Scum have an incentive to get rid of the creative pairs. The only people who would know that TDC-Budja do not have bulletproof are TDC-Budja (Budjascum has an incentive to keep TDCtown alive, so that he can continue getting abilities) and the creative team that I gave the bulletproof too, which is you, Yos, and Goat. Doesn't make sense for Budja to kill him, and scum in accounting wouldn't know who had the bulletproof, unless there is scum in creative. So that leaves you Yos, since I in no way believe Goat to be town.

Sens, considering the plan, and considering how absolutly clear you were in thinking Goat was confirmed, I'm pretty sure it was obvious from the start that me and goat were going to get tracker-bulletproof.

That's actually the reason for this:

Anyway, now that someoen has been killed, I can finally discuss my other suspects.

I discussed this with Goat in the quicktopic, once we got assigned the roles. I've been assuming all day that me/goat would very likely end up getting the tracker/bulletproof roles, and that the scum would be able to predict that just as easily. Which is why I was unwilling to discuss my suspicions in thread, other then Sensafan, until after the scum used their kill.

Tracker is a tricky role, because scum are always going to try to send someone you don't think is scum to do the kill. (So, I was already assuming they were never going to send Sensfan, if Sensfan is scum, because he's widly suspected; that's why I didn't mind talking about Sensfan, because me and Goat had already agreed he would be a bad tracking choice). The odds of a tracker suceeding drops lower if the scum knows who the tracker is, unless the tracker delibratly avoids revealing in thread who he suspects. Which is why I didn't at all mention in thread that my two main suspects are currently CKD and Ojanen until after the track went out, and it's also why I had not voted. (I would have been willing to vote sensfan if he had been my #1 suspect, but he's actually more like #2 or 3.) I believe it's also why Goat has been acting the same way, and hasn't really attacked anyone in thread today.

Anyway,

Vote:Ojanen

for the moment, at least until we get some real content from him.

Seeing as how you seem to be pushing for a sens lynch (I can't really tell since you haven't voted yet), that would get rid of that creative pair's ability to gain abilities, and killing TDC keeps Budjja from getting abilities. Basically, if Sens, or even Adel is lynched, you are Goat are now the only group that can get abilities (unless I reassign, even then you still have incentive to make me use my ability).

Ah, I see what you're saying. On the other hand, that's also why ANY scum would rather kill someone from the creative team then, say, someone from the accounting team; if the scum can't kill you, then if they kill off enough creative team members, it has the same affect of denying scum roles.

The accounting team are basically vanillia; the main scum targets would always be you and any town creative team members.

[Goatrevolt]

I agree that Adel's outburst is pretty much a nulltell. However, his vote on Sens bothers me, and yes Goat, there is a lot of WIFOM in the way you are thinking. At this point i'm leaing towards lynching Adel, but Sens needs to say something. Preferable soon.

I'm leaning the opposite actually. I don't like how Sens has taken the opportunity to lurk back into the shadows and say nothing once the pressure is off of him.

I also think he's reading this thread but actively lurking. In my ominous post 666, I address a few comments about Sens, and he responds in 13 minutes. Can you say reading the thread, but only popping in to address things directed at him?

His Sens vote is bad, and I don't know how you can view it a sensical.

I'm definitely viewing it as "Sens"ical.

Consistancy is a scum tell.

In what bizarre world is this the case?

I agree that town players should change their mind based on new information, but the big flaw in your stance is that

there was no new information regarding SensFan....or Ren Hoek for that matter.

The fact that you are trying to argue that Adel's votes on Ren and Sens wasn't bad play is laughable.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do. For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Are you trying to make the argument that Adel voted SensFan for the purpose of the information we would learn? There's absolutely no way that's true. He voted Sens out of spite/frustration/anger, not as some ploy to gather information for the town.

Yosarian, your arguments make absolutely no sense regarding Adel.

However, this Adel wagon is so clearly terrible that I would have trouble beliving it's not pushed by scum right now.

Prove it to me. You continually assert Adel is pro-town but you've given pretty much no reasons to believe this is the case. The argument "Adel is playing down the center of his town meta here" doesn't hold water without corroborating evidence.

Scum have an incentive to get rid of the creative pairs. The only people who would know that TDC-Budja do not have bulletproof are TDC-Budja (Budjascum has an incentive to keep TDCtown alive, so that he can continue getting abilities) and the creative team that I gave the bulletproof too, which is you, Yos, and Goat. Doesn't make sense for Budja to kill him, and scum in accounting wouldn't know who had the bulletproof, unless there is scum in creative. So that leaves you Yos, since I in no way believe Goat to be town.

I wouldn't put it past Adel/Sens to be able to arrive at the conclusion that Yosarian and I got the bulletproof / tracker combination as by far the most likely outcome. Considering I'm essentially confirmed, it would make sense to give the most powerful roles (including the protection one) to my team.

[scotmany12]

I don't think it is as obvious as you think it is. Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker. When I assigned abilities, I retracted that I found budja scummy because I misread his one post.

Regardless, I do not believe for a second that scum do not find anyone on the accounting team to be a threat. I would believe them to kill one of them without taking the risk of hitting the bulletproof.

Anyways,

unvote

. I am no way clearing Adel. I think I jumped the gun a little bit, but I like that it did generate discussion among me and Yos. I am not saying I no longer think Yos is scum either, but Sens is still scummy, and I have made it clear that I believe one of him/Adel to be scum. I could actually see Yos being scum with either of them.

[scotmany12]

I agree that Adel's outburst is pretty much a nulltell. However, his vote on Sens bothers me, and yes Goat, there is a lot of WIFOM in the way you are thinking. At this point i'm leaing towards lynching Adel, but Sens needs to say something. Preferable soon.

I'm leaning the opposite actually. I don't like how Sens has taken the opportunity to lurk back into the shadows and say nothing once the pressure is off of him.

I also think he's reading this thread but actively lurking. In my ominous post 666, I address a few comments about Sens, and he responds in 13 minutes. Can you say reading the thread, but only popping in to address things directed at him?

One of the reasons why I just unvoted Adel. I say right now Adel is slightly ahead of Sens for me, but if Sens continues to ignore the thread that will probably change.

His Sens vote is bad, and I don't know how you can view it a sensical.

I'm definitely viewing it as "Sens"ical.

I see what you did there.

Which one of you took tracker? I don't see anywhere in Yos's post where he says directly.

[Yosarian2]

Consistancy is a scum tell

In what bizarre world is this the case?

In ours. It's a useful way to look at mafia games, and I've found it to be very effective; it's a scumtell I've used for quite a while now, actually.

Town don't bother to be consistant; they change their minds, they shift as the mood hits them, because they'd rather be right then consistant. Scum tend to try much harder to avoid contradicting themselves.

I agree that town players should change their mind based on new information, but the big flaw in your stance is that

there was no new information regarding SensFan....or Ren Hoek for that matter.

There sure was. On Ren Hooks, the new information was that a whole shitload of people were suddenly trying to convince the town he was 100% confirmed based on a bad argument, and also trying to make it sound like anyone who dared to question Ren must be scum. That was quite clearly why Adel voted Ren, and it's a good reason too.

As for Sensfan...eh. If you read Adel's defense on Sensfan day 1, it was pretty clear Adel was already starting to get frustrated with his play; he didn't want to lynch Sens at that point in time, but was starting to become uncomfortable with some of his behavior. I don't find Adel's flip there at all surprising.

The fact that you are trying to argue that Adel's votes on Ren and Sens wasn't bad play is laughable.

You say that now, but if Ren and Sens both flip scum you'll be talking out of the other side of your mouth.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do. For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Are you trying to make the argument that Adel voted SensFan for the purpose of the information we would learn? There's absolutely no way that's true. He voted Sens out of spite/frustration/anger, not as some ploy to gather information for the town.

No, I'm pretty sure Adel voted Sens because he thought Sens was scum, not out of "spite/frustration/anger". The way he did it was a good pro-town play because of the information we get from it; I'm not sure if he had specifically planned it that way, but he very well may have; even upset as he was, I'm pretty sure Adel always has multiple reasons for everything he does in a mafia game, just like I do.

However, this Adel wagon is so clearly terrible that I would have trouble beliving it's not pushed by scum right now.

Prove it to me. You continually assert Adel is pro-town but you've given pretty much no reasons to believe this is the case. The argument "Adel is playing down the center of his town meta here" doesn't hold water without corroborating evidence.

Well, for one, Adel has done more to help the town then anyone else in the game. OGML attacked Adel for "discussing stratagy", but the truth is, if it wasn't for Adel's stratagy suggestions, Scot would have been dead day 1, and his replacement would very be dead now. If you look at the post, before Adel came in and figured out the ideal pro-town stratagy, no one had even really considered using either a bus dirver or a PGO.

[Yosarian2]

Which one of you took tracker? I don't see anywhere in Yos's post where he says directly.

As Adel pointed out yesterday, sensfan, there is no reason to claim that until the tracker gets information. And it was good Adel didn't claim early, also, because the timing of Adel's claim helped confirm Goat; Adel only said that he had tracked Goat after Goat already claimed his target, so we know Goat told the truth without knowing he would be confirmed.

[scotmany12]

As for Sensfan...eh. If you read Adel's defense on Sensfan day 1, it was pretty clear Adel was already starting to get frustrated with his play; he didn't want to lynch Sens at that point in time, but was starting to become uncomfortable with some of his behavior. I don't find Adel's flip there at all surprising.

I viewed Adel as being frustrated with Sens overall production, but he didn't find anything he did scummy. He believed him to be a sloppy town, and was frustrated at him for doing that. It doesn't look like he was ever uncomfortable with his view on Sens's alignment.

Which one of you took tracker? I don't see anywhere in Yos's post where he says directly.

As Adel pointed out yesterday, sensfan, there is no reason to claim that until the tracker gets information. And it was good Adel didn't claim early, also, because the timing of Adel's claim helped confirm Goat; Adel only said that he had tracked Goat after Goat already claimed his target, so we know Goat told the truth without knowing he would be confirmed.

I'm confused as to why sensfan is in this post.

[Goatrevolt]

I think he was referring to you and mixed up the names.

[Budja]

Sorry for the lack of posting.
I promise to get a post out within 12hrs.

[Yosarian2]

As for Sensfan...eh. If you read Adel's defense on Sensfan day 1, it was pretty clear Adel was already starting to get frustrated with his play; he didn't want to lynch Sens at that point in time, but was starting to become uncomfortable with some of his behavior. I don't find Adel's flip there at all surprising.

I viewed Adel as being frustrated with Sens overall production, but he didn't find anything he did scummy. He believed him to be a sloppy town, and was frustrated at him for doing that. It doesn't look like he was ever uncomfortable with his view on Sens's alignment.

Which one of you took tracker? I don't see anywhere in Yos's post where he says directly.

As Adel pointed out yesterday, sensfan, there is no reason to claim that until the tracker gets information. And it was good Adel didn't claim early, also, because the timing of Adel's claim helped confirm Goat; Adel only said that he had tracked Goat after Goat already claimed his target, so we know Goat told the truth without knowing he would be confirmed.

I'm confused as to why sensfan is in this post.

Sorry. Like goat said, that should have been your name, not sensfans.

[Budja]

Alright, I've only skimmed but heres my impressions.

Adel's outburst: I agree it was null. Adel's switch to sens was odd but it fits with Adel's attitude. Still not happy to lynch.

TDC Death: Risky for scum but TDC was a good choice for a kill as he was null to most people. Not really a point against Yos or anyone, mafia taking a minor risk is reasonably likely IMO.

Volkan's PBPA: I assume you want me to comment on post 28. "Joining the dots" was the most reasonable explanation, with the busdrive scum being surprised was equally likely, especially with half-concentrating scum. I mainly was following Adel's plan which was sound enough and the busdrive pushed FL into a partly scummy position.

Case on Yos: I decided to reread Yos and Adel to see what made people see them as scummy. I saw Yos as scummy for said reasons.

I think there are some links between Sens and Yos.

-Yos may have partly "started" the Sens push but didn't follow up much on his initial strong ideas. I like Yos's push but despite containing a stong point, it feels oddly used. I read Yos as disagreeing/questioning Sens's views but not labelling them as scummy, anti-town, anything.

-Sens OMGUSed Scot for his case but not Yos which I found odd.

[Ren Hoek]

Dear Budja,

You didn't answer the question I asked of you specifically in my previous letter to you.

I realize that you're only skimming and not reading. Skimming like a good little scum. A good little scum that has not interest or motive in finding scum, because he's on the team.

Thanks for punching the clock.

Lynchingly yours,

Ren Hoek

[Ren Hoek]

I have added crywolf replaced by Ojanen in my trusted player list owing to some evidence of honest scum hunting in the QT. I will not vote for these players today.

Ojanen crywolf20084 - Account Executive
curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
scotmany12 - Creative Director
OhGodMyLife Nuwen - Account Executive
Ren Hoek - Account Executive
Goatrevolt- Copywriter

I won't shed a tear if the players below are lynched:

vollkan - Head of Account Services
MichelSableheart Adel - Copywriter
SensFan - Art Director
Budja - Art Director
Yosarian2 - Art Director

Of the 5 players whose death I will not mourn, all but vollkan are positively scummy. SensFan is a toss up, I keep changing my mind about him, and I'm losing sleep over his recently acquired lurking habit.

[curiouskarmadog]

Sunday post coming....

[OhGodMyLife]

Busy weekend, I'll get back up to speed tomorrow night.

It was pretty obvious that Goat's team would get the bulletproof. I was hoping the tracker would be given to another team altogether.

[MichelSableheart]

It seems I have to appologize. I promised to have read this entire thread this evening. I have now, at 10 minutes to midnight. And I'm tired. I'm affraid there won't be much relevant in this post, especially because I am not sure I've read the last couple of pages thoroughly.

By far the most important thing to have happened thus far seems to be Seraphim dying. It seems to me that a wealth of information can be found there. Because of this, I'm planning to do a thorough analysis of that event when I'm more awake.

In preparation for the analysis, I would love to see a single question answered. Ren Hoek, can you please be so kind to tell me why you selfvoted? What did you hope to accomplish?

[Goatrevolt]

Sens is actually gone from the site for a few days, so although he

has

been lurking today, he does have a reason for the recent inactivity.

Here is where I'm at:

Most likely town:

Ren Hoek
OGML
CKD
Scot
Budja

Could go either way:

Michel (currently leaning town)
Yosarian2 (mixed)

Probably scum:

Ojanen
SensFan
Vollkan

----------------------

Ojanen

Lurker replaced by lurker. There's not much content to go off of, but this right here is a prime pick for lurkerscum.

Vollkan

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet. Since then he's barely contributing anything, instead looking to float by with a PBPA on Budja that has no traction. He needs to take a stance on Sens/Adel.

SensFan

I have no problem with his play early game. The vote on FL was reasonable. His defense was also rational, however, my big problem is that he pretty much refused to describe what was strong about the FL case, instead opting to say "it's been explained already." This is problematic for 2 reasons. The first is that it reeks of him not having a strong case if he's loath to explain it. The 2nd is that, if he has a case and people want to know if it's a good case, why not explain it to them? Shouldn't you want to lynch people you think are scum? Avoiding answering those questions detracts from a FL lynch, which is good for Sens-scum (avoids being pegged after pushing a mislynch) but makes little sense from Sens-town (you don't want your suspect lynched...why?).

His activity has directly reflected the attention focused on him. When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

----------

I wouldn't be opposed to lynching any of those 3, but as of now I think Sens is the scummiest, followed by Vollkan, and then Ojanen, and my lynch preference would be that order.

Vote SensFan

[vollkan]

I read the outburst and looked for clues of townie outrage, such as, "I'm doing all the work here," "how could you be stupid enough to want to lynch me," and the classic: "the SCUM is trying to lynch me, town, wake up!" The lack of signs of TOWN frustration is glaring.

Which would be entirely valid, except that the fact that Adel's outburst is not wholly due to game-related circumstances creates some difficulty here. Obviously, the same problem arises in relation to the desperate attacks he was making at the end.

I don't think that it is right to ignore what he said/didn't say during the outburst, but I am much less convinced of Adel's scumminess from this then I otherwise would be (again, I stress that I see the fact that Adel had an outburst as a nulltell; I am talking here about his actions during the outburst)

Consistancy is a scum tell.

Town can and should always be willing to change their minds 180 degrees in the blink of an eye when given new information, or just when re-assesing old information. In fact, it's generally better if they do; makes it harder for scum to manipulate town using the nightkill to keep those alive who trust them and kill those who don't. The only people who should be worried about consistancy are scum, because they're more worried about being lynched then about how they look.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do.

You're conflating two completely different things here. Nobody is saying that Adel is scummy for changing his mind. The problem is that he changed her mind

without any apparent basis for doing so

Assume that at time =

t

, Person X suspects Person Y for reason A.
If, at any time= >

t

, Person X does not suspect Person Y for reason then, all else being equal (ie. no new reasons), Person X at time = >

t

is contradicting Person X at time =

t

.

For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Yes, but that is completely irrelevant as to the question of whether or not Adel is scummy.

Volkan's PBPA: I assume you want me to comment on post 28. "Joining the dots" was the most reasonable explanation, with the busdrive scum being surprised was equally likely, especially with half-concentrating scum. I mainly was following Adel's plan which was sound enough and the busdrive pushed FL into a partly scummy position.

That's not true, though. The busdrive didn't change anything.

Prior to it, you reasoned (correctly) that it was a nulltell because FL could be surprised regardless of alignment due to a failure to join the dots. The fact that there was a busdrive doesn't alter that at all. A townie who failed to joint the dots would still be surprised and so too would scum.

What I am driving at here is that it seems to me that, when Adel presented an easy lynch strategy, you contradicted your earlier reasoning process, which suggests opportunism.

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet.

There was an issue there in that I changed my mind once in relation to what Budja said, then I changed my mind again once Adel seemingly refuted Budja but then, on rereading, I disagreed with Adel but didn't state as such in the thread. I put it a little better in this post answering a question of Adel's:

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

Since then he's barely contributing anything, instead looking to float by with a PBPA on Budja that has no traction. He needs to take a stance on Sens/Adel.

1) I think you are mistaking lack of conviction for lack of contribution. I'm pretty sure I have given my opinion on every major point.

2) What do you mean by "no traction"? I reached a clear conclusion on Budja's scumminess and I am still pursuing the line of inquiry in relation to post 28.

3) I gave my opinion on the Sens case ages back, and I've written quite a bit on what I think of Adel (whose play I mostly just find confusing)

When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

Examples?

[Budja]

I'll try to explain again.

Town-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

Scum-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (

bus drive surprising

due to at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction). As a scum partly expecting a scot-kill, there is a greater chance of surprise or expectation of surprise. Scum know of the bus-drive, town does not. Scum would also be more likely to act surprised as they would subconsciously expecting the town to be surprised to despite the fact that the town did not know of the busdrive.

It still isn't strong at all but makes the tell a bit scummy rather than null.

(@Ren, noted. I'll look at that later)

[Goatrevolt]

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet.

There was an issue there in that I changed my mind once in relation to what Budja said, then I changed my mind again once Adel seemingly refuted Budja but then, on rereading, I disagreed with Adel but didn't state as such in the thread. I put it a little better in this post answering a question of Adel's:

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

All I can say is that I will have to look at it closer. The back and forth and inability to express your stance on FL without confusion strikes me as scum struggling to keep track of their past stances on FL.

1) I think you are mistaking lack of conviction for lack of contribution. I'm pretty sure I have given my opinion on every major point.

I disagree that contribution is equivalent to providing an opinion on everything. You have provided your stance on every major point but you haven't really...done anything. No conviction, no pressure, no real attempt to find scum, and that's what I mean by lack of contribution. I feel like you are just floating along. You're giving your stance on things as they come up, but you're not going out of your way to do anything on your own.

2) What do you mean by "no traction"? I reached a clear conclusion on Budja's scumminess and I am still pursuing the line of inquiry in relation to post 28.

Moderately scummy was your conclusion. Interestingly enough, your reasons for Budja being moderately scummy is almost a perfect match to your play this game as well.

You've found someone who is moderately scummy who you are half-heartedly pressuring, while brushing aside the major cases of the day. That looks pretty suspicious to me.

3) I gave my opinion on the Sens case ages back, and I've written quite a bit on what I think of Adel (whose play I mostly just find confusing)

Is there anywhere in the thread where you have definitely said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum"? Your opinion of Sens lacked a conclusion. You merely said you had trouble weighing him and Ren up. Also your opinion early/midway through day 1 on Sens is a bit outdated, no?

Ok, looking into it a little further, you say you have trouble weighing them up. But your vote is on Ren at the time. By that I can conclude you find Sens to be pretty scummy. So why haven't you pursued Sens at all today? If he was almost equally as scummy as Ren, who you were voting day 1, then why pursue Budja (moderately scummy) over him today?

Also you haven't really taken a stance on Adel either. Confusing is not an alignment. Do you think he's scum or town?

When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

Examples?

Your most active portions of this game are when Adel directly addresses you or calls you out to contribute. When nobody is addressing you, your posting frequency and content drops off the face of the earth.

-----------------

I think Sens and Vollkan are scum together. Vollkan agreed with the case on Sens but kept his vote on Ren day 1. Today he has taken to going after Budja rather than go back to Sens, who would be the logical next target.

We should lynch Sens today. Vollkan tomorrow.

[vollkan]

I'll try to explain again.

Town-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

Scum-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (

bus drive surprising

due to at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

As a scum partly expecting a scot-kill, there is a greater chance of surprise or expectation of surprise.

Scum know of the bus-drive, town does not.

Scum would also be more likely to act surprised as they would subconsciously expecting the town to be surprised to despite the fact that the town did not know of the busdrive.

It still isn't strong at all but makes the tell a bit scummy rather than null.

(@Ren, noted. I'll look at that later)

You're mentioning two different sorts of surprise here. I've put them in different colours. Red is genuine surprise from scum; blue is feigned surprise to appear like town. Now, have a look at FL's post

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

Objectively, that most definitely is not a case of scum being genuinely surprised that their kill got busdriven. It could be scum faking a town reaction of "WTF", or it could be a town reaction of "WTF" - needless to say, the "join the dots" point you yourself raised renders the two (ie. town WTF and faked scum WTF) indistinguishable.

By your own logic, there was nothing to make it anything other than a nulltell, and yet you didn't mind departing from that logic when it would make the FL lynch more acceptable.

All I can say is that I will have to look at it closer. The back and forth and inability to express your stance on FL without confusion strikes me as scum struggling to keep track of their past stances on FL.

Why does it look like "scum" struggling to keep track of their past stances as opposed to, as I have said, town changing his mind, forgetting about exactly when, and then coming back confused? It's not exactly a particularly weird sort of mistake to make.

I disagree that contribution is equivalent to providing an opinion on everything. You have provided your stance on every major point but you haven't really...done anything. No conviction, no pressure, no real attempt to find scum, and that's what I mean by lack of contribution. I feel like you are just floating along. You're giving your stance on things as they come up, but you're not going out of your way to do anything on your own.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

Moderately scummy was your conclusion. Interestingly enough, your reasons for Budja being moderately scummy is almost a perfect match to your play this game as well.

No. The fact that you think this shows you haven't read either Budja or myself with sufficient attention. I haven't had strong suspicions, but I haven't also shied away from giving my opinion and there have been numerous points where I have asked proper questions. Budja, in contrast, has almost entirely avoided giving away his positions and, when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part.

Also, your post ignores the specific actions by Budja that I find scummy, particularly 28.

Is there anywhere in the thread where you have definitely said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum"? Your opinion of Sens lacked a conclusion. You merely said you had trouble weighing him and Ren up. Also your opinion early/midway through day 1 on Sens is a bit outdated, no?

Given that I was voting Ren at the time, saying I have trouble weighing them up should have been a pretty clear indication of where I stood. And, yeah, that is old material, but I frankly can't see what major new stuff has emerged since then. The issues with Adel really don't compel me one way or the other, and people just seem to have this general sense of him being "sloppy" which, in my experience of Sensfan, isn't peculiar. Hence, why I have not said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum".

Your most active portions of this game are when Adel directly addresses you or calls you out to contribute. When nobody is addressing you, your posting frequency and content drops off the face of the earth.

This is bullshit. I know this point has been raised before (by Adel, IIRC), but it's just not true.

First time Adel called me out was way at the beginning where I showed quite clearly that she was not correct in her attack

Second time was when she asked me "how about now?" just five posts after I said I lacked concrete suspicions. I posted 3 days later.

Third time was the time she asked me to post the comparative case. Which I did. And then I didn't post for 3 days. Then I posted. Then another 3 days. Then, without prodding by Adel, pretty much at least one post per day.

[Goatrevolt]

Why does it look like "scum" struggling to keep track of their past stances as opposed to, as I have said, town changing his mind, forgetting about exactly when, and then coming back confused? It's not exactly a particularly weird sort of mistake to make.

As town you have legitimate suspicions of people. When you think someone is town, you have actual reasons to think they are town. When you think someone is scum you have actual reasons to think they are scum. Townies are unlikely to confuse their stance on someone because it's what they truly believe.

On the other hand, scum are faking their stances on everyone. Scum are far more likely to confuse their stance on someone because they forgot that they had written them off as town or scum earlier, etc. They're faking all their suspicions, so it can catch up to scum if they don't keep on top of what they've said at all points.

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

Ok. Elaborate on your stance on Budja for me. You listed him as moderately scummy, but now he's a strong suspicion. Is it based on that one post alone? What about post 8 in his iso read, that you gave him town cred for?

No. The fact that you think this shows you haven't read either Budja or myself with sufficient attention. I haven't had strong suspicions, but I haven't also shied away from giving my opinion and there have been numerous points where I have asked proper questions. Budja, in contrast, has almost entirely avoided giving away his positions and, when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part.

See I don't agree. I think Budja has provided his opinions on any topic he's been asked to as well. What constitutes a proper question or not is pretty subjective, and I'm not sure "who has asked the most proper questions" is a good gauge for scum finding anyway.

Also, your post ignores the specific actions by Budja that I find scummy, particularly 28.

I don't find anything glaringly wrong with that stance. For the record, that was quite similar to my own stance on FL.

I'm pretty sure Budja is town, as I've stated previously. Posts 5-7 in his Iso read match the Budja-town meta and not the Budja-scum meta. I also agree with your own reasons for finding him townie based on his post 8 in iso.

Given that I was voting Ren at the time, saying I have trouble weighing them up should have been a pretty clear indication of where I stood. And, yeah, that is old material, but I frankly can't see what major new stuff has emerged since then. The issues with Adel really don't compel me one way or the other, and people just seem to have this general sense of him being "sloppy" which, in my experience of Sensfan, isn't peculiar. Hence, why I have not said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum".

This is confusing. You merge your opinions of Adel/Sensfan together and I have no clue what your actual stance on either is.

Adel: Town or scum?
Sens: Town or scum?

This is bullshit. I know this point has been raised before (by Adel, IIRC), but it's just not true.

First time Adel called me out was way at the beginning where I showed quite clearly that she was not correct in her attack

Second time was when she asked me "how about now?" just five posts after I said I lacked concrete suspicions. I posted 3 days later.

Third time was the time she asked me to post the comparative case. Which I did. And then I didn't post for 3 days. Then I posted. Then another 3 days. Then, without prodding by Adel, pretty much at least one post per day.

I'll back off this point for now, until I have a chance to look into it closer. My interpretation of your play has been that you've gone completely unnoticed unless directly called out, but I don't have any kind of evidence to back that up with, except my own feel from your play.