Newbie 814(over!)

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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 2:54 pm

Post by Manzcar »

to iso at the bottom you will see Disp

Display posts from previous:
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The by drop down box will give you the list of posters. You select on of them and then hit Go.

Also
it seems to me that you are assuming that lego is town and that means what itvac2 is doing is scummy. Am I reading that correct?

ohh hey there Sudai (previw for the win)

What do you think of Lego bandwagon jumping?
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:08 pm

Post by Manzcar »

Manzcar - itacv2 seemed very odd on his going from 'atma and lego are scum' to 'sam is scum' transition, and he never directly answered my question on it, despite me (and I think someone else) asking him to
Which questions did he not answer?
also what do you think of the extreme lurking by Evil?
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:10 pm

Post by legomaniac1128 »

Unfortunately, I'm going to ANOTHER cottage on Friday and will be back Sunday. (sorry, I have no control over this.) If anyone wants anserws to questions that involve me ask now, so you don't have to wait. Really sorry guys. :(
Ain't I a Scummy!!!!
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:12 pm

Post by Vaya »

Got it Meji, thanks.

And I'm a guy BTW Sudai.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:14 pm

Post by Manzcar »

@ Lego my questions earlier
Lego your votes have seemed to jump around. Your current vote is on Itacv2 can you give me your reasons why your vote is on him? Also can you explain why your voted Itacv2 and then FoS'd him?
also besides Itacv2 who would you consider to be your second suspect? And what are the reasons why you suspect them?
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:20 pm

Post by Vaya »

Manzcar wrote: Also
it seems to me that you are assuming that lego is town and that means what itvac2 is doing is scummy. Am I reading that correct?
Not quite. If lego is town, itvac2 is likely scum. I still have suspicion of lego, but of the two, I think itvac2 seems scummier. If itvac2 were to flip town, I would go back to suspecting lego more.
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:28 pm

Post by Sudai »

Vaya wrote:And I'm a guy BTW Sudai.
My bad. Needed a pronoun for you and the female avatar probably pushed me to subconsciously think you were a girl despite it being an avatar that appeals more to males. :x
Manzcar wrote:What do you think of Lego bandwagon jumping?
I think it's suspicious, but at the same time I think he just doesn't have much experience with the game (as hinted by a few of his post). I can go into further detail if you really want, but if that's the case, would you mind waiting until he answers what I'm about to ask him? Worst case scenario I'll give my reasoning pre-N1.



As for my question for Lego:
Do you frequent many forums?
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:42 pm

Post by Manzcar »

@ Sudai np
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 4:26 pm

Post by atma »

First of all,
Unvote GOTOR13/Manzcar

Now that he has been replaced, no reason for my vote to be on him at the moment.
Manzcar wrote: Atma why do you want to lynch a lurker? Do you think this is pro town? Who is your top suspect and why?
As I tried to explain in a previous post, it wasn't so much the fact that he was lurking, but more the fact that he dropped by to say he was around and almost immediately turned around and said he was leaving, without providing even a single tiny snippet of content. To me, it just seemed like he was trying to lay low and not draw any attention to himself. That being said, as his replacement, you are seeming much more pro-town, so perhaps it is good he was replaced.

And yes, I consider voting someone I find to be suspicious pro-town.

As for my suspects, I just did a quick reread of the topic to try to gather my opinions again. Most people seem to be agreeing that itavc is being scummy, and I think I will have to agree as well. Manzcar and Sudai's posts highlighted this fact quite well. As I went back through the topic and reread itavc's posts, each subsequent post seems to get more and more scummy. He started by casting suspicion on me and legomaniac but soon jumped ship and OMGUS voted sam.

To me, it seems as we grow suspicious of itavc, it is shaking his confidence. His posts are overflowing with emotion and he is making threats and such. If you were really town, what would you have to be so afraid of? But he hasn't said anything in a bit, so I want to see his response to some of these newer posts before I vote him.

As for secondary suspicions, I think most we can all agree that legomaniac jumping votes all over is scummy, but I'm not sure whether to think of that as bad play or him being scum yet. I want to see him post some real content soon as well, cause he hasn't really said much of anything of interest.

I also slightly fos Vaya, as I said earlier for reasons I posted in post 124. But this could also be me over-analyzing things, so I'm not too worried about it yet.


IN SUMMARY:
itavc seems scummy, mostly because of his OMGUS vote on sam, and at this current moment I would be in favor of his lynch. I would also be okay with a legomaniac lynch.

Itavc, legomaniac, and evil sonidow all really need to make some new posts with some good content IMO. We hardly even know anything about Evil Sonidow, so I'm interested in seeing how he reacts.



Also, one more thing. Correct me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't it be advantageous for us to lynch on day 1? If so, the deadline is this saturday and so personally, I would like to get alot of this stuff that is hanging around all sorted out by then.



[/b]
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 4:44 pm

Post by Vaya »

Yes, we should lynch day one. Keep in mind everyone that if we don't reach 5 votes, no one is lynched.

Mod, Requesting Vote Count
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 4:50 pm

Post by Sudai »

A lynch on day 1 may not be advantageous, actually. Numbers have proven that, overall, games starting with an even number of players have a higher win rate for town.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... %2C_Part_1

These calculations assume a purely vanilla game and discount power roles. However, we're lucky that this game is an open game and we know all the possible roles. Worst case scenario, Mafia got a role blocker and we got nothing. So, really, worst case scenario is that we got nothing and they got nothing.

Now, you ask how a no lynch D1 is advantageous since we have an odd number? A no-lynch on D1 essentially gives us 10 players to start with.

If there's any holes in my logic for a no-lynch, someone correct me, please. That said, even if we do go with no-lynch, lets not do that until the last minute. Information is very important and the more of it we can get in D1, the better off we will be.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:08 pm

Post by Meji Fan »

Manzcar - on the itacv2 question bit

My question was in 118, as in 'why is sam scummy when you were so sure it was atma and lego before'

itacv2 replies in 122, but doesnt seem to answer my question (its all about lego)

I remind in 123 to answer my question

126 he sorta addresses it I think, that lego is scummy but sam is trying to distract Vaya, but it is not enough for me (or Vaya apparently, Vaya asks itacv2 to answer my question in 127)

I then try to discourage lynching GOTOR13 (I have nothing on Gotor, Id rather lynch someone interesting), and then I feel better concerning itacv2 then sam so I change my vote in 133


Next the Evil Sonidow bit, give me a moment
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:11 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

legomaniac1128 (2) - itacv2, Sudai
itacv2 (3) - Vaya, legomaniac1128, Meji Fan

Not Voting: Manzcar, Evil Sonidow, sam.samhorn, atma

9 alive, 5 to lynch
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:12 pm

Post by Meji Fan »

Whoa, rereading all of Evil Sonidow's posts was fast and easy . . . . theres well, 7 of them

Of which 4 were game related

Okay, I think Evil Sonidow is somewhat interesting, lurking can be suspicious and scummy, and is definitely not fun play. And voting GOTOR13 for contributing nothing is extremely hypocritical

I still think I like itacv2 though, but Evil Sonidow is interesting
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:15 pm

Post by Manzcar »

legomaniac1128 wrote:Unfortunately, I'm going to ANOTHER cottage on Friday and will be back Sunday. (sorry, I have no control over this.) If anyone wants anserws to questions that involve me ask now, so you don't have to wait. Really sorry guys. :(
I'm am wondering why you made this statement but didn't stick arond to answer questions? Or why didn't you at least answer the qustions posed to you prior to your post?



At Meji I understand now thanks.
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:26 pm

Post by Sudai »

Unvote


Forgot I'd have to get rid of Brandor's vote. X.x
=====

Evil: Contribute more or face scrutiny.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Wed Jul 29, 2009 7:25 pm

Post by atma »

Meji Fan wrote:Whoa, rereading all of Evil Sonidow's posts was fast and easy . . . . theres well, 7 of them

Of which 4 were game related

Okay, I think Evil Sonidow is somewhat interesting, lurking can be suspicious and scummy, and is definitely not fun play. And voting GOTOR13 for contributing nothing is extremely hypocritical

I still think I like itacv2 though, but Evil Sonidow is interesting
now that you mention it, I forgot to fos Evil Sonidow. I completely forgot about him in the first half of my post, he is just kinda forgettable. But yeah he's somewhat suspicious, moreso than vaya, but less so than itavc. Like I said, he needs to start talking more so we can get some info on who he is/what he's like.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:02 am

Post by Manzcar »

Sudai there are flaws in not having a day lynch.

1. your list uses only one mafia not two
2. if we no lynch we will be down one townie
3. lynching gets rid of a suspicious person either scum or bad townie
4. voting patterns on lynches gives insight in later days
5. combining information between lynches and night kills can give insight to scum
6. there are lies, darn lies, and then statistics

ohh and if we no lynch technically it will be an 8 player gave where it is 2 scum versus 6 townies.


Sam what do you think about a no lynch?
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:59 am

Post by Sudai »

1) I'm aware that there was no "9 players, 2 mafia," however you can still see the general trend that even starts are better than odd starts. That holds true when you get to the 2 mafia memer games as well.
2) We may be down two townies. Itvac2 is so scummy that he almost makes me want to skip the no lynch, but I'm still not 100% on that.
3) Very true.
4) In a small game, we may be done before we can tell much from voting patterns, though there's not doubt that it'll at least be mildly helpful.
5) Once again, true.
6) What exactly do you mean with this point? Haha.

I dislike list. :[

Also, even going down to get to an even number is better than having an odd number. I'm really not sure how the chart is effected by the fact that we start on D1 instead of N1 though.. I'm not saying we should definitely no-lynch D1, but I at least wanted to put the idea out there to be tossed around so we can weigh all possible options.

Sam, Meji, Vaya, I'd like to hear your opinions on the no-lynch. Actually, I want to hear everyone's but these three are of particular intrest for me. : )
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:52 am

Post by Vaya »

No lynch is a very bad idea. You're misinterpreting the chart, because it assumes we start at night 0 and mafia gets a kill every night, it's saying that we have a higher chance of winning when we come into the day with an odd number of players. Also, the information we get at a death is very valuable, such as the person's alignment, and who was voting and not voting for them. So it's better if we lynch every day.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:01 am

Post by sam.samhorn »

I think I know both of the mafia. I'm going to
vote itacv2
now that he's started lurking after the pressure started building up on him. Also he's been just really scummy the entire game. I'd prefer not to reveal my other suspect at this point, I'll do it soon.

Anyways itacv2 you are now at L-1. What do you have to say for yourself? Roleclaim or die.
Manzcar wrote:Sam what do you think about a no lynch?
No lynches are virtually always bad.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:31 am

Post by Sudai »

Sam, if I asked you would you reveal your second choice pre-D2? It's not a big deal if not, just curious to see if we hold similar suspicions or not.

On the subject of the no-lynch, I keep leaning more and more against it. I have never personally experienced one so I have no contextual evidence for it, just the numbers I showed earlier. Sam, would you mind elaborating on why it's virtually always bad? I'm basically already decided against a no-lynch, but I like to take learning experiences when I can.



Also, I'd recommend no one put the final vote on Itacv2 just yet. We have three more real days before the deadline and I want to see more from a few users before the end of D1.
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:54 am

Post by atma »

Vaya wrote:No lynch is a very bad idea. You're misinterpreting the chart, because it assumes we start at night 0 and mafia gets a kill every night, it's saying that we have a higher chance of winning when we come into the day with an odd number of players. Also, the information we get at a death is very valuable, such as the person's alignment, and who was voting and not voting for them. So it's better if we lynch every day.
Vaya hit the mark with this, I agree with this completely. Assuming we have a mislynch (and we do), we should certainly lynch. Like Vaya said, I think the advantage is in having an odd number going into the day, which means we are in the right place. And really, if a majority of town thinks one person is scummy, why would you not lynch them if it's not mylo? it just makes sense.

So there's my opinion Sudai, even though you didn't want it.


@sam
I find it unsettling that you are unwilling to reveal your suspicions. Really, what reason to you have not to say them? Is it not anti-town to hold back clues as to who scum may be? Personally, I think you should reveal this to us before the day ends. If you're worried about your target of suspicion causing a debate or something of the sort, I highly doubt anyone would do anything major to distract attention away from itavc, unless of course they are both maf, but that seems unlikely.



Also, one more thing regarding Sudai's no lynch argument: I heard somewhere that discussing alot of numbers is sometimes a scumtell, because it's a way of looking like you are contributing content when you aren't really. I'm just telling you guys this so you know. But really, relying on statistics in a chart as a basis for not lynching someone you believe to be scum just doesn't sit well with me.
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 11:30 am

Post by legomaniac1128 »

Sundai:
Sometimes. I look at some theme mafias just for the heck of it. Why did you ask?
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 11:46 am

Post by legomaniac1128 »

Manzcar:
Me being a n00b I suppose. There weren't a lot of questions asked involving me, and I didn't know about itacv2's threat until after I got back. If there were however please tell me and I'll answer them now.
Ain't I a Scummy!!!!

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