Open 160 Bird 7P (GAME!) - before 823

[hohum]

Good boy.

Now, I roughly sketched this out. You and Charnel are abolsutely correct in that if the scum claim a PR right now the game is over. The only chance of scum survivng a mass claim is to claim VT and hope to avoid a lynch.

It narrows the pool of suspects for D2 down to 3, because nobody is going to counterlcaim the Doc or Cop at this point. This is a good thing.

There's a chance that the cop investigation hit one of the PRs on N1 so we can't assume that we're going to get a confirmed VT through this process.

1:3 chance of hitting scum is still bad odds. If we mislynch today and the cop survives the night having two investigation results will end the game.

The only way I would support a cop claim at this point is if Baltar is the cop and got a not-guilty result on charnel.

[hohum]

Yabba: the only way the cop would have gotten no result last night is if he investigated muzz. He would have gotten a result in that case but it would have been rendered moot by the fact that muzzz was NKd.

[hohum]

I like yabba's idea of having just the VT roles claim. I'm not ready to endorse it fully yet. I need to work it into my scenarios, but on the outset it does sound reasonable. It has the benefit of protecting the cop's identity.

[hohum]

Octu: Please hold off on answering the investigate speculation question for now. Please do process and then comment on the claim scenarios on the table.

[VP Baltar]

yabba iz de scumz

[hohum]

Vote: Baltar

You're starting to irritate me. Why dismiss a good idea even if you think he's scum? Especially a few posts after dinging me for the exact same thing.

If you really think it's a bad idea then you'd better start explaining why, because I've got a noose here with your name on it.

[hohum]

Baltar clearly isn't the cop, so no cop claim please. Thanks.

[Octupis]

Octu: Please hold off on answering the investigate speculation question for now. Please do process and then comment on the claim scenarios on the table.

Why am I so significant in this process huhom?

Charnel: it isn't time to mass claim. We're not in lylo yet.

Lylo is too late: you can't be wrong on the Pr's anymore:

now, with one mislynch, we have a few options:

One cop, one doc, one confirmed, one normal towny, and:

A a fakeclaiming scum as doc: lynch both docs for the win
B a fakeclaiming scum as cop: lynch both cops for the win
C a fakeclaiming scum as towny: lynch both townies for the win.

There is no way out for scum anymore.

This system cannot really fail can it? I have no objections to this.

There is one flaw. If scum shifts to a vanillaclaim, we have THREE suspects, when a lynch of 2 is all we can afford.

Here's my advice.

ONLY Vanillas claim first.

>>>If 2 claim, powerroles claim at this point, and whichever powerrole is claimed twice, lynch both of them.
>>>If 3 people claim vanilla, the scum is in the bunch.

If the latter occurs, ONLY if the cop has an innocent on one of the three should he yap up. Otherwise, everyone else says the blunt statement "I am not a cop with any innocent on the three."

If the cop does claim and call an innocent, first off, wait for a counterclaim, and if not counterclaimed, lynch the two townies not named innocent.

If he is counterclaimed, we can lynch the real cop and the faker.

The reason for this is because if the cop has NO innocent, we should let him stay silent. If we lynch a townie, we gamble on the cop staying alive (ergo, the doc is killed instead), and if he does, he investigates one of the two remaining people in the Vanilla crowd, and it becomes obvious which is which.

This is a heavily town-favored game right now.

I question why you are asking me huhom, but I don't see anything wrong with this idea either. Personally I would prefer the latter. Outing the PR I don't think is a good idea, because the scum would be foolish to counter claim one of those so I presume will claim vanilla leaving him a greater chance to reach the night and kill the claimed cop. I think the cop should only claim when absolutely necessary.

[hohum]

Can you guys please take note of what I said earlier?

C. in Charnel's logic flow is a fallacy

It would only hold true if we could confirm one of the townies and we can't. For all we know Muzz might have been investigated last night, or perhaps one of the claimed PRs. That makes the cop's investigation result useless.

Yabba's idea is a good one, because it's a compromise between what I want (no claim) and what Baltar and Charnel want (full claim)

Let the VT roles claim. Once we have 3 VT claims, if and only if the cop investigated one of the 3 should he come forward and claim, then Charnel's C. scenario works and we've one the game.

[hohum]

I hereby endorse Yabba's plan. VT only claim. It helps us narrow the suspect pool without outing the cop.

The doc I could really give a fuck about at this point. If we lose him it won't be as big of a deal as losing the cop; though, I still think the no-claim is the best course of action. We're basically giving the cop a 50/50 survival shot tonight if we mislynch, and I guess I can live with that.

[VP Baltar]

Good lord, you are being dense about this hohum.

ATTN ALL: I AM THE COP. CHARNEL WAS MY INVESTIGATION LAST NIGHT AND IS NOT MAFIA.

The remainder of the claiming order will be as follows:

yabbaguy
hohum
Octupis

Go!

[hohum]

I'm not being dense. I'm suggesting the best course of action based on what I know. Now that I know you're the cop, and charnel is a confirmed innocent I now fully endorse your plan.

If someone counterclaims you, then you're the first to die, got it?

[hohum]

@Yabba: claim please

@Baltar: stop being such a fucking baby.

[VP Baltar]

Remember how yesterday you said I was fighting you every step of the way? Is this supposed to be some sort of retribution?

[hohum]

No. I just didn't understand why you were completely ignoring the fact that charnel's proposal hinged on confirming a townie. Now I understand.

I even asked you specifically to claim if that was the case, but you went right on calling me a scum for not endorsing your dumb idea. Try to look at it from my shoes, if you can clearly see a plan with a hole in it big enough to drive a mack truck through, wouldn't you resist as well?

[VP Baltar]

Meh, I already implied at the beginning of the day that I had an innocent read on Char. Something should have sounded off to you when I basically had no questions for him at the start of the day.

The reason I didn't want to claim first was because I wanted to catch a scum claiming cop and make this that much easier. As I see it now, they will be forced to claim vanilla...so we might not get a perfect victory here. This is my competative nature coming into play.

[hohum]

The only way I would support a cop claim at this point is if Baltar is the cop and got a not-guilty result on charnel.

You may have missed that. Clearly you're over-excited because you did a good job last night, but try to calm down a bit, read other people's posts carefully and try to consider why they're saying what they're saying.

Between octu and yabba right now, my money is on octu flipping.

[VP Baltar]

Also, for what it's worth:

What are the consequences of people trying to tear down a wagon?

F

rom my understanding, wagons are a good way to find scum.

B

ut then again,

I

could be wrong.

[hohum]

cute. you expected anyone to pick up on that because???

[VP Baltar]

I saw it, and I almost claimed there, but like I said perfect victory was on my mind. I haven't had one yet and this is definitely the perfect opportunity. We'll see if it's still in the cards after yabba finishes debating on whether to claim VT or a doc.

[VP Baltar]

cute. you expected anyone to pick up on that because???

I didn't expect anyone to pick up on it, nor did I want them to. I wanted it to be there for when and if I claimed because it would help remove the WIFOM of a scum trying to counterclaim me.

My backing off of char should have been a much more obvious indication that I am the cop.

[hohum]

FYI, I though octu was the cop. mostly because of my read on him and the fact that he wasn't making much sense for a little while there. That's why I was asking him specifically what he thought of the claim idea. I was trying to prompt him to breadcrumb his investigation results.

Now that I know he isn't the cop, the vote on charnel at the beginning of the day looks incredibly scummy.

@that yabba guy: Either way this flip turns out, it was a pleasure playing with you. You really pulled your shit together at the end of D1 there. If you're scum, then kudos for pulling the wool over my eye. If you're townie, then good job helping us catch scum. I have a feeling that once you get more experience under your belt, you're going to be a formidable opponent.

@Baltar: Perfect town victories are like getting a royal flush. They rarely happen, and it's almost never due to bad scum or good town, but merely lucky town and unlucky scum. If the doc protect would have succeeded last night then we could have potentially pulled it off. I was actually contemplating protecting muzz over octu but I decided to go with my original instinct -- incorrect as it turns out.

Do we really need to wait at this point? Let's just lynch them both and be done with this game.

[hohum]

My backing off of char should have been a much more obvious indication that I am the cop.

It wasn't obvious, but I did pick up on it. That's why I asked you to claim.

[VP Baltar]

So you are basically fake claiming doc because you are scum?

If you thought Octu was the cop, why would you protect him? Docs cannot protect cops in this setup. Thanks for playing and trying to rush the lynch scum.

[hohum]

So you are basically fake claiming doc because you are scum?

If you thought Octu was the cop, why would you protect him? Docs cannot protect cops in this setup. Thanks for playing and trying to rush the lynch scum.

I thought muzzz was the cop at first. And I'll prove that to you once the game ends.

I'm not fake claiming, nobody is going to counter claim me, and if they do they're going to get lynched eventually anyways. Whether I go first or they go first makes no difference to me.

STFU and enjoy the victory.