Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[kikuchiyo]

Hm. I was starting to waffle on Iam around page 11 or so, but she leaves my wagon for Mokina after the "slip", lurks through most of the rest of the argument, then after the mason claim she moves to Wiirdo with a seemingly random lurker vote. The case against me is totally dropped. I still agree with the suspicions on Qwints and Wiirdo still has yet to show up. Scum team still intact. Vote stays.

Vote Count Five

qwints: 2 (Gwynplaine, iamausername)
kikuchiyo: 2 (qwints, SerialClergyman)
iamausername: 1 (kikuchiyo)
Gwynplaine: 1 (dank)

Not Voting: 2 (DTMaster, Nikanor)

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline: Monday, August 10 4:00 PM EST

[Nikanor]

Wiirdo still has yet to show up.

<-- Wiirdo's replacement.

[iamausername]

a seemingly random lurker vote

oxymoron

[qwints]

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play.

Why is this scummy, exactly? Do you think her alignment changed overnight?

No, I think inconsistency is a scum tell.

I think a re-read will show that I opposed a D1 FC lynch for policy reasons, became willing to lynch anyway due to a plausible scenario where FC was scum.

Yeah, let's take a look at that 'plausible scenario', shall we? What it basically amounts to is "kiku and dank are being scummy! They must be FC's scum partners!". The only way any of this is a case against FC is if you assume that at least one of kiku/dank is scum. It doesn't make any sense to vote for him on this basis when dank and kiku's alignments are both unknown.

No, I thought the risk of losing a PR was offset by the chance of identifying the other scum. As for detailing why Kiku's behavior towards FC's lynch was scummy - that's already been covered. Kiku opposed a doc lynch, then voted for the doc lynch and told dank to hammer. Then she waffled on the lynch until the Lowell wagon showed up. Her play just doesn't make sense from a town P.O.V.

[/url]

[kikuchiyo]

Neither does yours.

unvote, vote: Qwints

Sorry about the 180, but I think Iam and SC are town. They were the only ones with enough sense to see that TA was the better lynch. I myself did not really understand the hider mechanic but noth Qwints and Dank seemed to understand it and still think it better to lynch the hider who(in retrospect and reread) would have been much more useful to town.

Dank, Qwints, Nikanor

No, I think inconsistency is a scum tell.

^^ Classic.

Finished day 1 reread.

[qwints]

I'm shocked,

shocked

that Kiku has reversed her position on Iam to increase the chance of saving her own skin. Doing it 45 minutes after proclaiming confidence in your position is just icing on the cake.

[kikuchiyo]

Sorry, but how am I saving my own skin? It only took me forty-five minutes because that's how long it took me to finish my reread of day 1. Both Iam and SC come off as the most pro-town. Unfortunately, day 1 was entirely scummified by many players. If I need to build a bigger case I can, however, what is your current stance on Nik and Dank?

[DTMaster]

I'm at work so my time is limited. I'll just respond to the posts that were addressed to me. My summary post is still in the making and I need more rereading time to reexamine the arguements on day 1.

Given the fact that hero and mokina were linked and had more info than the rest of the town, I do not believe kiku pressuring them was scummy. I didn't like her early vote hopping or her demand for a claim, but I think those actions were a null tell given the behavior of hero and mokina.

This point is valid since Hero, Mokina (and FC/Admiral and Lowell) had various slips that could be interpreted as scummy. The late breadcrumbing argument was justfied and the lover pair played inconsistantly, with faulty/weak logic.

The problem with the alleged contradiction you point out is that it does not allow that evaluations of player's actions should change based on later information gained about alignment.

This is not justified for two reasons.

First is that you could have outlined that your opinion has changed from the initial analysis. There is nothing in the question to stop you from that. I would have accepted: As of now with the current information I see X person as scummy/not scummy for Y reason. This is changed from Z position due to A, B and C arguments.

Secondly, you need to consider both positions. First is to look in hindsight with what we know now. Secondly is to consider what we knew considering the context of the time period. You can easily point out a ton of hints/signs/town or scum tells in hindsight after we confirm the person's alignment. But predicting a person's alignment is much more difficult.

To directly address your question:
On day 1, before the mason claim, I found kiku's behavior scummy.After the mason claim, I re-evaluated her behavior. I now think it is a null tell - that is, it is consistent with both townie and scum play.

I agree with the null tell argment. Can you give me your interpretation on how the mason claim could have benifited town though.

The key is that I "found" kiku's aggressiveness scummy; past tense.currently, I think they are a null tell given what we now know.even though kiku didn't know they lied about the mason claim, she did correctly detect mokina's inconsisticies re: hero, which justified her play.

Very true.

That is why her sudden change of behavior is so bizzare and scummy.

Yes this inconsistancy is very glaring at the moment. an AtE move is very weak in comparison with her day 1 play. This is a very WIFOMish question but can you reason out why she would choose such a sub-optimal play right after her agressive move.

@ Town
While we are scum hunting I find it disturbing that no effort is done to find the SK/Werewolf. (See the second kill) Thoughts on SK/Werewolf suspects?

[DTMaster]

@Kikuchiyo

HOLD IT. Read Post 579 first. Now consider the results of the night kill.

1. Your Post 579 would had us to analyze the results of the night kill to determine under what conditions is Admiral/FC is most likely scum and what conditions they are town. (Ie. If they survive + scum points, if they die then it is town confirmation) This is a much better route to go since we are expanding on Admiral/FC's case (and the fact that Admiral failed to post his defense. This means there were pending questions left unanswered)

2. The night results show that the difference from lynching Lowell and lynching Admiral/FC have no advantage. In Scum POV they have just read 4 PR claims in one day: 2 Masons, 1 Hider, and 1 Doctor.

a. If we chose to lynch Admiral/FC the biggest threat closest to a doctor is a hider since he is able to confirm town/scum alignment. Lowell would have been a prime NK target.

b. We witnessed what happened when we lynched Lowell instead.

Therefore this current debate on the Lowell vs Admiral/FC lynch debate is very pointless since we would most likely be in the same situation we are at the moment from either lynches. The only way anyone could have averted this was lynching someone other then the 4 people who claimed PRs.

[DTMaster]

Btw I replaced Tenchi. I noticed that iamausername addressed Tenchi still so make sure everyone clears this up.

[Gwynplaine]

@ Town
While we are scum hunting I find it disturbing that no effort is done to find the SK/Werewolf. (See the second kill) Thoughts on SK/Werewolf suspects?

I'm just looking for scum. I don't particularly care which flavor of scum we lynch first.

[DTMaster]

@ Gwyn

I wasn't aware that scum was a catch all word to include all anti-town factions.

[DraketheFake]

Vote Count Five-Point-Five

qwints:

3 (kikuchiyo, Gwynplaine, iamausername)

kikuchiyo:

2 (qwints, SerialClergyman)

Gwynplaine:

1 (dank)

Not Voting:

2 (DTMaster, Nikanor)

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline:

Monday, August 10 4:00 PM EST

[Gwynplaine]

That's generally how I've seen it used.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Scum

[DTMaster]

Ah it lists it there too. I usually associate it with the shorten form of mafiascum (or for mafia). I retract my question then unless someone has an alternative view point to this.

[Nikanor]

@DTMaster:
a) What are your thoughts on the day one nadroj wagon? Do you think Gwynplaine has done a good job clearing his repacee's behaviour?
b) How do hiders work?

[DTMaster]

I have work again so I'll post half an answer. I'll finish refining my a answer when I get home but for now:

@Nikanor

b) Based on what the wiki and what everyone in this thread as said I can only summarize that a hider is:

1. Like a confirmed sane-cop. A hider is pro-town and can target (to hide) someone at night and confirm a person's alignment.
2. When he hides someone that is pro-town, his action resolves and gains NK immunity if he is targeted (see the wiki but I am unsure about this power). This is how a hider can confirm a person's township.
3. If a hider chooses to hide mafia, then he dies from his result. I am unsure about SK/Werewolf though because they are neutral, and not aligned with the mafia.
4. A weakness with the hider is that when his target dies (and it is a pro town role) then he dies with his target (think lovers but one sided).

Therefore the tracker/watcher plan that Lowell stated would have another person to confirm the target's alignment (so they are Lowell's insurance), especially in the case of number 3. Lowell in game can confirm a townie's alignment with a list (similar to an investigation list).

[Tenchi]

Mod: Replacing out. New job. Sorry

[Nikanor]

@DTMaster: Who do you think would be a better lynch, a hider or a doctor?

[DTMaster]

@Tenchi
I'm your replacement. :3 Good luck with your new job.

@Nikanor
In any circumstance I try to not lynch either person. But given the fact that our power roles played extremely scummy I would risk lynching the hider.

Since we forced 4 claims on day 1 by lynching the hider:

1. The nightkill will confirm the doctor's alignment. No scum player would let the doctor live and gamble on a failed nk. If ThAdmiral/FC survives then he would be extremely scummy and debate would follow.

2. If the hider was scum he would fake confirm his scum buddies as town. Since a hider gets NK immunity from hiding a pro-town person, we cannot confirm him from the NK. This only leaves a cop/watcher/tracker to confirm the hider's alignment, or from a lynch.

Since Lowell played very scummy it is logical that the lynch went to him due to this reasoning.

Upon review on the hider role I just realized my post 733 might have turned out differently. Had we lynched ThAdmiral the hider would have gotten nk immunity (can someone confirm this ability?) and might have produced a failed nk, saving a PR. But this is looking back in hindsight when we now have a confirmation of the alignments. Based on what information we had at the time it did not excuse the player's actions.

Nikanor who would you rather lynch? Also I'll post the answer to your first question soon. I'm pulling quotes at the moment for my thoughts.

[Nikanor]

Mod: Note my signature, please.

Noted.

- Mod

[Gwynplaine]

This thread's gone awfully quiet.

[DTMaster]

@Nikanor
Your (a) question answered:

Nadroj Bandwagon

The day one nadroj wagon was partially justified. [url="http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 75#1778480]Dank's post 676[/url] outlines a good argument about his poor scum hunting and lack of content. He was lurking very excessively as well. But a minor point come up that make me question Nad/Gwyn's scummness.

1. Nadroj's character 313 summary. He hurts himself with his own analysis which is really odd from a scum POV.

2. Dank stresses active scum hunting, and discredits summary posts right afterward. Sumamry posts

The only issue I have is that is argument is getting rehashed a lot throughout this game. This argument was used against FC in Dank's 279 and again with Gwyn.

Considering how many pages the game gets, a good summary post is helpful to reestablish what has occurred and current town reasoning. This feels like a flimsy argument that dank is pushing on these players. A forced case makes a weak case, creating small mistakes where people are interpreted as scummy.

Thoughts about Gwyn

I view Gwyn as a good replacement so far. I'm starting to get some town vibes from him after his 677, 679, and 681 defense.

Some of Dank's 676 post against Gwyn by himself was a bit flimsy because summary posting from a replacement is a weak argument. Note that post 509 was Gwyn's second post and a summary of the

last 20 pages

before that post helps reevaluate the current cases.

Though he forgot to answer Dank's 682

So you suspected someone more than FC?

Overall most of the suspicion that is on Gwyn was from Nadroj which he cannot answer for entirely, but has taken accountability for it. He has done a good job defending himself.

While I was reading you seem to have a problem with Gwyn's latest case. Can you elaborate on this?

Also to the town: Everyone said we have 3 scum players in town. I just want to clarify if this meant we have a 3 man mafia team in game or a 2 man mafia team and a SK/Werewolf.

[DTMaster]

@Gwyn

Since you are pursuing a case on qwints:

1. Can I safely assume you think Kiku is less scummy then qwints at this point and time?
a. If yes can you elaborate your current stance between Kiku and qwints' debate. (ie Why Kiku's AtE argument proves she is town and not scum)
b. If not then why are you pursuing a qwints case if you think Kiku is more scummy?

[Gwynplaine]

1. Yes.
a. That's a bit of a loaded question there, since I never said anything about her making an appeal to emotion, let alone said appeal "proving" anything about her alignment. I got a very solid town read on her early on, which wavered a bit a couple of times, as I've said before. Over the last couple of pages she seems more like a genuinely frustrated townie (call it "AtE" if you must) than scum pretending to be frustrated.

Rolling back a post:

Also to the town: Everyone said we have 3 scum players in town. I just want to clarify if this meant we have a 3 man mafia team in game or a 2 man mafia team and a SK/Werewolf.

"Everyone" didn't say that. I don't recall anyone saying that in so many words. What we know is that there were two kills last night, both on claimed town power roles. We can draw some obvious conclusions from that fact, but we should be careful not to assume too much. I'll just leave it at that as I'm not sure that a lot of setup speculation would be particularly helpful at this point.