Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[Gwynplaine]

EBWOP: Accidentally dropped a paragraph when rearranging things.

It's interesting that for all his accusations on Day One, he never got around to voting for kikuchiyo until somebody else started the bandwagon. Scum distancing? Or maybe just testing the waters and waiting for somebody else to cast the first vote?

Vote Count Four

qwints: 2 (Gwynplaine, iamausername)
kikuchiyo: 2 (qwints, SerialClergyman)
Gwynplaine: 1 (dank)
DTMaster: 1 (kikuchiyo)

Not Voting: 2 (Nikanor, DTMaster)

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline: Monday, August 10 4:00 PM EST

Tenchi was replaced later on this page by DTMaster.

[qwints]

iam - does it matter ot you that kiku didn't follow through with her game analysis?

I'm hoping that she will follow through with it in the near future. That kind of thing takes a bit of time to put together, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Could you be more open about your reason for voting qwints?

Probably.



Oh, you mean now? OK. I was voting qwints for a while yesterday, because I felt like his reasons for voting Hero applied equally to me, yet he was completely ignoring me. The best explanation for this seemed to be that the Hero wagon had some support, while mine did not. His response was fairly sound, and there was other stuff going on that seemed more fruitful, so I dropped it.

However, today, two notable wagons have occurred and qwints has been on both. This reminded me of my initial suspicion, since he was now showing a pattern of such behaviour, so I went back and checked out his vote history. Guess what I discovered? qwints also managed to be on both the Far_Cry AND the Lowell wagons yesterday. And it wasn't even a case of "OH NOES WE CAN'T LYNCH CLAIMED DOCTOR, BUT FUCK HIDERS FOR NO LOGICAL REASON"; he voted Far_Cry

after

the claim, but still managed to find his way to getting Lowell lynched.

Basically, if there is a popular wagon in this game, there you will find qwints.

Also, he seems annoyed by the fact that I suddenly think kiku is town. I believe that I have presented a delicious mislynch to him on a silver platter and then yanked it away again just as he was about to take the first bite.

This post is so far removed from reality that I wonder if we're even playing the same game. Voting people for bandwagoning is anti-town. It gives you an excuse to use a chainsaw defense without looking of the merits on a given player.

Today, I didn't like Tenchi's delaying post, so I voted him. Kiku had expressed suspicion of him, but there was no chance of a Tench-list unless he continued to fail to contribute. He has now posted, and I am not voting him.

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play. Kiku's hyper-aggressiveness struck me as scummy, but there is no denying that she found two linked players. It's just bad luck that they happened to be masons. That's why I didn't buy tenchi's attack on Kiku for rolefishing, but why i voted her when she tried to pre-empt discussion with a hyperbolic AtE.

As I've already pointed out, I did not vote more often than other players. I think a re-read will show that I opposed a D1 FC lynch for policy reasons, became willing to lynch anyway due to a plausible scenario where FC was scum. I was the second to vote Lowell, and voted before a claim. I still do not agree that hiders are more useful than docs. Preventing lynches is more useful than confirming townies.

Kiku's recent silence suggests she is trying to let suspicion blow over, and is inconsistent with both her day 1 play and her pre-emptively claimed vanilla status. My vote stays.

[Gwynplaine]

Speaking of people who need to post more:

@Mod: Would you please prod dank and Tenchi? Neither of them has posted in about four days.

[DraketheFake]

Prodding

dank.

Effective immediately,

DTMaster

replaces Tenchi. Give him a warm welcome. Vote count up top.

[DTMaster]

Hi Everyone! I'm going to re-read and post a summary of my current thoughts. I'll try to give my interpretations to any questions that were pending on Tenchi but I can't guarantee that it is what Tenchi actually wanted to do.

[DTMaster]

One request as I reread. If you asked a question to Tenchi and it is still pending can you list them in a summary post. It will make my life easier as I work on this post (and in case I miss a question).

[dank]

sorry all, V/LA till friday night. I may make a post or two, but I got called to work this week and i'm really out of it.

[SerialClergyman]

Hi DTMaster, welcome.

iamusername - do you think they'd be more likely to be on the FC wagon, the Lowell wagon or neither?
What do you make of qwints' Lowell vote, given it was second on a bandwagon that looked a little unlikely to get up at the time?

qwints -

This post is so far removed from reality that I wonder if we're even playing the same game.

That quote is a massive stretch. Your whole defence had a very indignant flavour to it which is a form of AtE itself. I have no problems doing voting analysis and bandwagon analysis - although there are flaws, it's a good way of framing the game.

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play. Kiku's hyper-aggressiveness struck me as scummy,

but there is no denying that she found two linked players. It's just bad luck that they happened to be masons.

That's why I didn't buy tenchi's attack on Kiku for rolefishing, but why i voted her when she tried to pre-empt discussion with a hyperbolic AtE.

(my bolding)

This does not sound like someone who finds kiku scummy. I understand when you're talking about her aggressiveness you're talking about your perspective before you voted her but the whole paragraph doesn't ring true. You found her aggressiveness scummy but you never voted her. You say that it's bad luck the two she found were masons, but it'd only be bad luck if she was town! Then she has her appeal and you have an easy moment to step on the wagon. Reading the above, I just don't get the impression you actually think that kiku is scum, and that's suspicious as hell.

@kiku - still waiting

Fixed tags. Not sure who you were quoting, et plus I'm lazy!

- Mod

[SerialClergyman]

nooo fail tags..

I'll never be too lazy to hit the preview button again!

sorry..

[qwints]

I found kiku's weird change of behavior scummy. Her aggressiveness was a null tell.

[kikuchiyo]

@kiku - still waiting

Deadline is more than two weeks away.

[DTMaster]

A quick logistics question:

@Serialclergyman (and at quints partially due to the quote)

I think you mean that kiku found the lovers, not the masons. Moko and Hero claimed masons but the night kill results tells us otherwise (abet a moot point since either would most likely be town aligned).

Reading that exchange bugged me since it wasn't accurate.

@quints
Wait what?

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play.

Kiku's hyper-aggressiveness struck me as scummy,

but there is no denying that she found two linked players. It's just bad luck that they happened to be masons. That's why I didn't buy tenchi's attack on Kiku for rolefishing, but why i voted her when she tried to pre-empt discussion with a hyperbolic AtE.

Now you do a flip and say:

I found kiku's weird change of behavior scummy.

Her aggressiveness was a null tell.

Which is it? Did you find her aggressive behavior acceptable on day 1, or did you not?

a. If you agree that her aggression was null-tell then what made you change your thoughts from your previous statement?

b. If you didn't agree with her aggression, then why did you consider the aggression a null-tell?

I'm still absorbing the day 1 events and need a little time to revisit some parts before forming a case. I'm just shocked to see 4 PRs outed and killed like that. (Rereading FC and Hero's exchange gave me a headache the first read through ><)

[qwints]

I, personally, dislike hyper aggressive play.it tends to strike me as scummy. But I realize that both town and scum can be hyperagressive. Furthermore, kiku's attacks turned out to be somewhat warranted due to the existence of the lovers.

I can dislike a playstyle but still realize it's not a scum tell. Kiku's sudden change of behavior, on the other hand, is not consistent with townie play.

[DTMaster]

But at the time she was pushing for a mason claim. We did not know that the lovers were part of the setup and very little was implied after Moko and Hero's mason claim.

Furthermore, kiku's attacks turned out to be somewhat warranted due to the existence of the lovers.

Kiku stated that she would like to push for the lovers lynch only if they claimed it, since you cannot guarantee a lover's alignment. What she did push for was a mason claim (so confirm two town PRs) and a day 2 doc counter claim depending on the NKs.

This spurred on the whole role fishing debate. Your statement makes little sense if you look at it in the context of what the town knew at the time. You can only say this argument is justified if Kiku knew that they were lovers on day 1.

I, personally, dislike hyper aggressive play.it tends to strike me as scummy. But I realize that both town and scum can be hyperagressive...I can dislike a playstyle but still realize it's not a scum tell. Kiku's sudden change of behavior, on the other hand, is not consistent with townie play.

Everyone has their own opinions on play style, which makes the forum interesting when you meet someone unique. I agree that consistency is the best town-tell in any game. While your statement is acceptable for a question on mafia theory, you still didn't answer my question:

Do you see Kiku's actions before day 2 as scummy or not and why?

We can all agree that Kiku's AtE argument doesn't sit well with anyone, myself included. But you haven't directly answered the contradictory statements I pointed out in your recent posts.

[qwints]

Given the fact that hero and mokina were linked and had more info than the rest of the town, I do not believe kiku pressuring them was scummy. I didn't like her early vote hopping or her demand for a claim, but I think those actions were a null tell given the behavior of hero and mokina.

The problem with the alleged contradiction you point out is that it does not allow that evaluations of player's actions should change based on later information gained about alignment.

To directly address your question:
On day 1, before the mason claim, I found kiku's behavior scummy.After the mason claim, I re-evaluated her behavior. I now think it is a null tell - that is, it is consistent with both townie and scum play.

The key is that I "found" kiku's aggressiveness scummy; past tense.currently, I think they are a null tell given what we now know.even though kiku didn't know they lied about the mason claim, she did correctly detect mokina's inconsisticies re: hero, which justified her play.

That is why her sudden change of behavior is so bizzare and scummy.

[kikuchiyo]

To directly address your question:
On day 1, before the mason claim, I found kiku's behavior scummy.After the mason claim, I re-evaluated her behavior. I now think it is a null tell - that is, it is consistent with both townie and scum play.

How does a day 1 mason claim benefit scum? Had we not outed other power roles in the process, a day 1 mason claim is generally bad for the scum team as it gives town an immediate improvement in regards to the town's chances of lynching scum early. It also tends to railroad the scum nk's and leave other pr's free to work(though not in this case). Why would scum push for a mason claim as it benefits town much more than scum?

[Gwynplaine]

@qwints: What about the times you called Kikuchiyo scummy on Day One, after the mason claim?

[qwints]

@Kiku - scum like to out power roles.

@Gwyn : That was a separate issue from the aggressiveness. Kiku's attitude towards the FC lynch was bizarre and is scummy.

[Nikanor]

she did correctly detect mokina's inconsisticies re: hero, which justified her play.

Where did she correctly detect this? If I recall correctly, she thought Hero and FC were masons all the way up to the claim.

[qwints]

In this post (Iso 13):

The semantics of FC's post did not make him seem remotely scummy, so at the time I didn't even consider kikuchiyo's question an attack. I thought she'd just misread his post, and I completely agree with Hero - pointing out an error in someone else's case isn't scummy at all.

Kiku was fabricating a case because FC didn't say exactly what she would in his situation.

Now I am confused. Earlier you agreed with my "case".

I went back to look at Far_Cry's post ... seems as if we each read it differently the first time. I thought it was referring to Lowell's absence, whereas you thought there was a second reason. Misunderstanding, sorry to pin a semantic attack on you.

FC hasn't actually resolved whether or not there's an additional reason besides Lowell's absence, but he should. The point about the scumvenience of said vote was good call; duly noted.

I am not sure why you would backtrack like this. You admitted it wasn't a semantics argument, but now you are dismissing my original point. Now, FC has been caught in a lie about his amount of experience. Voting someone who is lying is "anti-town"?

I'm not going to be hostile to anyone. That's not a good playstyle, IMHO. But here's one for you. Did you suspect Lowell for anything other than lurking? We still want to know.

Now we're back to agreeing with kik?

In fact, Mokina said Hero was doing good scumhunting this game. Has anyone seen it?

Please read my posts - the only time I've ever complimented someone on scumhunting, it was directed at you and qwints via post quoting. I made no mention of Hero - he hasn't been scumhunting at all, to my knowledge. Do you have some kind of Strawman Mokina win condition or something?

Sorry, you are correct. On reread I notice you are talking about me and qwints.

I'm really getting sick of this. You're making up reasons to vote for other people, with no basis at all, post-RVS, then not listening to the input of the rest of us. I cite the way you dealt with Hero, who also tried to explain that it might be a semantic attack ... you steamrolled right over him. It's antitown and

FoS: kiku

-worthy at the very least.

Yet you agree with my suspicion of FC? Puzzling.

I am not sure why you seem to be so emotional over today's events, but this post seems erratic.

[iamausername]

Voting people for bandwagoning is anti-town. It gives you an excuse to use a chainsaw defense without looking of the merits on a given player.

Voting people for indiscriminately bandwagonning anyone they have the opportunity to bandwagon based on extremely weak cases is pro-town. I'm not defending without looking at the merits; I have looked at the merits of your cases. There aren't any.

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play.

Why is this scummy, exactly? Do you think her alignment changed overnight?

As I've already pointed out, I did not vote more often than other players.

As I've already pointed out, this is completely irrelevant.

I think a re-read will show that I opposed a D1 FC lynch for policy reasons, became willing to lynch anyway due to a plausible scenario where FC was scum.

Yeah, let's take a look at that 'plausible scenario', shall we? What it basically amounts to is "kiku and dank are being scummy! They must be FC's scum partners!". The only way any of this is a case against FC is if you assume that at least one of kiku/dank is scum. It doesn't make any sense to vote for him on this basis when dank and kiku's alignments are both unknown.

iamusername - do you think they'd be more likely to be on the FC wagon, the Lowell wagon or neither?

Well, looking at the end of day vote count, I think it's safe to say scum were on one wagon or the other.

I don't see you or Tenchi as likely scum, and everyone else was on the Lowell wagon, ergo, I think it much more likely that scum were on the Lowell wagon.

What do you make of qwints' Lowell vote, given it was second on a bandwagon that looked a little unlikely to get up at the time?

I think he expected the FC wagon to go through to a lynch at that point, and wanted to disassociate himself from it, so he hopped onto the most convenient target. The fact that this managed to net him another dead power role was just a lucky bonus.

Kiku's attitude towards the FC lynch was bizarre and is scummy.

And again. Could you possibly make a case that does not consist entirely of "kiku's behaviour is bizarre and scummy"? Like maybe explain

why

her behaviour is scummy?

[kikuchiyo]

Decided to just reread the thread and I must say that by page 7 I am just about convinced we are looking at Wiirdo/Iamusername/Qwints. It would be difficult to put any type of case together, but both Iam and Wiirdo lack any significant activity(in fact, Iam carries suspicions over an unanswered rvs question all the way to page 6), and Qwints seems to camp his vote on Hero for quite some time riding the original "defense" argument I started. Suspicions may change as I continue, but I will keep you updated. In the meantime:

unvote, Vote: Iamusername

[Nikanor]

You realize kiku's 'rolefishing' post where she stated she thought Hero/FC could be masons was iso14, right? She never thought Mokina and Hero were masons together; she never pushed for a Mokina/Hero mason claim. That's why I'm confused as to why you are saying kiku was the one who outed Hero/Mokina, no less being right in doing so. Another buddying post to add to Gwyn's list, I suppose.

[iamausername]

Nikanor, who is scum?

[Nikanor]

Well, I don't KNOW who is scum, but if I were to list my top three suspicions it would look like dank, qwints, and Gwyn. The only problem I have with this is Gwyn's post attacking qwints, but that could very easily just be distancing.