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[Ojanen]

Hi.
I've been mildly skimming along but I'll take a proper look now, I probably need until Wednesday night to do that.

[scotmany12]

As for the Sens wagon, I could tell how the momemtum was shifting, and that Sens was going to be the lynch for the day.

This is bullshit. The sens wagon had no momentum. None at all. He had two votes, me and CKD, and later on CKD unvoted him. His wagon literally had very little, if any, momentum.

If other players think I am being intentionally evasive, please let me know. Sometimes I don't read the question the way the writer intends, and I think it is rather more useful to the town to rephrase a question or at least restate it if my first response isn't adequate.

You have been pretty evasive when it comes to some points. You holding back your opinion Sens for so long, and your answers to OGML were indirect. With his first point against you (re. theory and analyzing) you did strawman, as he never said discussing theory and mechanics is scummy or antitown.

[Ren Hoek]

I'm willing and able to lynch Adel for trying to discredit "confirmed townies" - and I use quotation marks to acknowledge that they are not truly confirmed, but pretty damned close.

At the same time, I'm loathe to see Budja playing so overly cautious, and non-aggressive. He gives me intense scum vibes.

Any takers for my Budja challenge?

[scotmany12]

At the same time, I'm loathe to see Budja playing so overly cautious, and non-aggressive. He gives me intense scum vibes.

Any takers for my Budja challenge?

I'm not really seeing how he looks so scummy to him. He has been cautious, I don't agree that he has been overly cautious though. As for non-aggressive, that doesn't make him scum. Have you played with him before as town? Was he also non-aggressive there?

[Adel]

"(27d)Immediate actions' public results (if any), most notably kills will be posted between 0 and 24 hours of me opening the PM, to avoid Time Zone differences breaking the game. "

Time of kill (with GMT+5 profile setting): Thu Jul 16, 2009 10:33 am
Time of Ren's self vote: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:18 am

~ a 5.5 hour difference.

"Morning subphase ends on July 13, 12PM EST, and any actions submitted before then resolve at that time simultaneously."

Ren, GR, and vollkan all post between 4:57 am and 5:18 am on Jul 16, and scot and Budja post between Ren's 5:18 self vote and the 10:33 am deathscene.

I can't rule out that Ren's self-vote was a ruse (well, it was obviously a ruse) but part of the same ruse as the kill, designed to "clear" him.

[Adel]

and it doesn't help that I never believed for a moment that this post was sincere:

Interesting development.

I thought I was at L-1. That was the incorrect count I was posting. It's not impossible that I unintentionally mislead the scum into thinking I was at L-1. If the scum thought as much, I'd be dead, too, immediately after Seraphim died. Maybe they thought they'd be rid of two account executives in one fell swoop.

Had I counted properly, and died along with Seraphim, we'd have:

vollkan - Head of Account Services
crywolf20084 - Account Executive
Nuwen - Account Executive
curiouskarmadog - Account Executive

There wouldn't be much point in striving to be one scum account executive with 3 townies. But if two of the above players are scum, I definitely see an advantage.

I'm not sure I thought this through fully, but it's a start.

unvote

I think it is a misdirection, like, "OMG guys, why didn't I die" -- it rings false to me.

[scotmany12]

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

[curiouskarmadog]

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

QFT
---

Also, vollkan are you trying out a new playstyle?..if so why? I have seen you as scum and town, and this playstyle is completely different. You usually have a more hands on approach also no more percentages?

[Korts]

(4) Bulletproof- curiouskarmadog, Ren Hoek, vollkan, vollkan
(0) Vigilante-
(0) None-

not voting:

crywolf, Ren Hoek, OhGodMyLife

3 to approve

Approved

Jailkeeper, Tracker, Bulletproof

Bulletproof has been approved.

I await the Creative Director's choices.

[Korts]

From: vollkan@genericads-mis.com
To: Account Services Department
CC: scotmany12@genericads-mis.com
BCC: ether@genericads-hq.com
Subject: Meeting

Thank you everyone for your contributions today. I'd like to say, as Head of Account Services, which is not a title to be taken lightly, that I was satisfied with all of you today. Apart from our beloved Mr. Hoek, who was considerably late, although on par with his past performances, everyone's been doing their job well, and that is a compliment to me as Head of Account Services.

I'm particularly excited to see what our creative wizards can do with Protective Technologies. This I say in full Head of Account Services seriousness. Lolza.

Hugz
vollkan, Head of Account Services

---

It is now Morning of Day 2 Working Hours. Morning will end at 6 PM EST July 31.

() -

not voting:

vollkan, Ojanen, Ren Hoek, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog, scotmany12, TDC, Adel, Goatrevolt, SensFan, Budja, Yosarian2

7 to lynch

Deadline is 6 PM EST August 22.

[Yosarian2]

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

That's really not true.

Frankly, at the time of the kill, it really looked like ren was going to die no matter what. If you had been killed, then the town would have lost a key role, and the day would have suddenly ended. I'm not completly sure how the roles work in that case, but I think we would have started a new day without a creative director, and FL would have been forced to very quickly chose one in the middle of a rather chaotic situation.

Honestly, i wouldn't be surprised if the scum had decided that all that is worth sacrificing Ren for, especally as it really looked at the time like he was going to be lynched no matter what.

Now, again, the attempt at killing you is a point in Ren's favor. But is he "confirmed town"? Hell no. Not nearly as much as, say, you and goat are.

[curiouskarmadog]

Yos, do you think Ren is scum?

[Budja]

Vote: Sensfan

Scot is right, Sens's wagon did have no real momentum. People did say he was scummy but most stuck with the Ren wagon.
Since Ren is prob town (I'm leaning this way now), this makes the Sens wagon an even better choice IMO.

[scotmany12]

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

That's really not true.

Frankly, at the time of the kill, it really looked like ren was going to die no matter what. If you had been killed, then the town would have lost a key role, and the day would have suddenly ended. I'm not completly sure how the roles work in that case, but I think we would have started a new day without a creative director, and FL would have been forced to very quickly chose one in the middle of a rather chaotic situation.

Honestly, i wouldn't be surprised if the scum had decided that all that is worth sacrificing Ren for, especally as it really looked at the time like he was going to be lynched no matter what.

Now, again, the attempt at killing you is a point in Ren's favor. But is he "confirmed town"? Hell no. Not nearly as much as, say, you and goat are.

Ehhh, I guess you're right. Still, I just don't see the scum doing that, but I will admit it is possible. Nevertheless, I believe Ren to be town.

Moving on,

Vote: SensFan

. I have made it clear that I believe him to be scum.

[Ren Hoek]

It worries me that the day's first vote has been cast by SensFan with a poor explanation.

The SensFan wagon puttered down, and mine swelled, because I was a far easier lynch. One the scum could get away with. I believe it has little bearing on his alignment.

For Mr. Lukewarm to jump in, all hot, with a vote for SensFan on dubious grounds doesn't inspire confidence.

[Budja]

I already have stated my position on Sens. That was an additional point.
Also your wagon grew early then stagnated near a lynch. Sens's wagon never got of the ground at all as despite many people finding sens scummy, they found you more scummy.

[Goatrevolt]

OGML's 595: I agree with the majority of this. A few comments:

I don't think the FL lynch was as awful as you say. FL wasn't "obvious caught scum" but he had the potential to absolutely wreck the game if he was scum, and was pretty suspicious on an individual merit anyway. If he had appointed himself CD as scum, we would have been forced to lynch him and lose roles for the rest of the game, or leave caught scum alive to distribute roles in the least helpful fashion. Neither of those were bright prospects.

Your list is fairly similar to my own thoughts, except I'd bump Vollkan to the neutral categy and swap Crywolf/Adel, and I'm indecisive on both Yos/Sens right now. So maybe less similar that I guessed... I'd put you in the "town seeming" pile, although less so if Ren is scum. I can't see scum being eager to try to clear Ren as pro-town as you have.

------

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

Did you have any expectations of how people would follow your vote, and what if anything did you expect to learn?

- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.

why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.

What did you make of Ren's vote on himself? That seems to be a completely overlooked point. If the purpose was for Ren to save himself by killing Seraphim, then why would he be on his own lynch wagon? That makes absolutely no sense.

- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.

how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?

How has Ren corrupted signal:noise ratio? This is a weak reason for suspicion, considering the subjective nature of evaluating what is signal vs. what is noise. Do you have any previous statistics/experience on signal/noise and whether it correlates to scum more? It seems like a fairly...arbitrary assessment.

4. suicidal Ren-scum: Ren is about to get lynched anyway, so kill scot, Ren (scum) is a likely target for busdrive (no loss) and so is Seraphim (saves Ren's bacon) but then so is Crywolf.

Thinking about my above statement (The why would Ren be trying to save himself when he was on his own wagon statement) I started considering this as well. The only plausible scenario where Ren is scum is the one where he sees that he's dead, decides he wants to quickly end the day, and hopes to take out the most powerful player in one swift action.

It seems much less likely than the Ren is town scenario, but it shouldn't be completely ignored as a possibility.

-------

Sorry, misread, you weren't referring to GR's towniness.
Still, you put him as very likely town and I presume it's because of his busdrive, so the question stands anyway though not related to the quote.

What do

you

think about that situation?

Anyway, he is right that one of my arguments against Ren, the one based on the kill, is no longer valid now that we know the scum tried to kill Scot, and hadn't actually intended to kill Serephem.

How was this ever valid? How do you explain the dichotomy of Ren both killing someone on his wagon to prevent his lynch...yet being a lynching member of his wagon as well?

Didn't read all of OGML's post and everything said in the last page, but I believe he is wrong when he says Adel is scum. Mostly because I still believe Sens to be scum, and I really don't see them talking like they did in there QT if they were scum together.

Excellent point.

@Ren, examples? I think I have been straightforward enough with my views.

I can't give examples. One has to look at your posts in isolation, or in context. I cannot give an example that explains that you are circumspect and overly cautious. One has to read your posts and FEEL it.

How does that feeling mesh with his vote on you early day 1?

We haven't really used ours either.

If there was anything I specficially wanted to question goat about, I would do it in thread here and get reactions from other people as well.

I've been having a difficult enough time staying active in this thread, let alone pursuing other avenues in the QTs. There are a few scenarios off the top of my head where I can see myself wanting to confer to Yos in private, but it's nothing that's come up yet.

Regarding Sens: I don't think I've ever seen Sens as scum. Sens is less aggressive, and is making less sense than my opinion of typical Sens-town play. This could possibly be explained by his out of game issues, though, which is why I'm hesitant to jump all over that. Anyone know off the top of their head whether Sens is playing in other games and his post rate in those?

I'd appreciate if someone took a look a Budja, and report on whether they get the same icky feeling I do. Maybe it's my imagination. If it is, I'd like to know. I need a second opinion.

I'm not against an Adel or a Yosarian lynch, however, Budja does seem to be actively trying not to ping anyone's scumdar. In another game, I'd suspect he's a doctor or scum. In this game, only one of these is possible.

I feel fairly comfortable in my ability to read Budja. In the 3 games I've played with him, I've been able to correctly call his alignment pretty much instantly (ok, ok, we were scum buddies in one of the games). Unless he's escaped his scum meta, his early attack on you was definitely Budja-town.

Budja-scum involved egregious lurking, and relatively no stances whatsoever/weak stances.

Was "Sens scum tends to be careful" (or something like that) part of your met?

That reminds me of something actually. I seem to recall Sens-scum pulling a ridiculous gambit in a game I read a while back. I'll have to check up on that.

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

Actually, this isn't true. I'm not scum, but Ren isn't necessarily cleared, or at least not nearly to the point it has escalated to. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that he

wanted

to end the day with his lynch after it looked pretty clear that he was going down. It would explain the self-vote when he was nearly lynched + the shot at the most powerful power role who wasn't on his wagon.

------

It's late and I'm tired. Going to plan on doing some Iso reads and voting tomorrow.

I also apologize for the giant wall of text. I grumbled to myself at having to read those walls when I skimmed through and now I'm dropping an even bigger one.

[SensFan]

Goat:

I'm alive in 2 other games at the moment.
I'm generally agressive regardless of alignment, and yes I have been known to pull gambits as Scum.

[TDC]

Sorry, misread, you weren't referring to GR's towniness.
Still, you put him as very likely town and I presume it's because of his busdrive, so the question stands anyway though not related to the quote.

What do

you

think about that situation?

I think I've already said that, if something's missing, clarify your question:

Well, okay. I just don't think [Goatrevolt]'s as confirmed as scot is.

Scot scum, gr town would require risky scum play, hence very unlikely.
Scot town, gr scum would require suboptimal scum play, hence unlikely.
Scot scum, gr scum would require short-sighted scum play, hence unlikely.

--

I hadn't really considered Ren's self vote. But I don't think it changes much. If he's town it changes nothing, if he's scum him not retracting it would indeed indicate he wanted to die at that point and I'm not quite buying that.
FL would've had the whole Morning Meeting to decide on a new CD so it wouldn't have been all that chaotic.

[Yosarian2]

"(27d)Immediate actions' public results (if any), most notably kills will be posted between 0 and 24 hours of me opening the PM, to avoid Time Zone differences breaking the game. "

Time of kill (with GMT+5 profile setting): Thu Jul 16, 2009 10:33 am
Time of Ren's self vote: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:18 am

~ a 5.5 hour difference.

Good point. So it's fairly likely that the when scum submitted the kill, Ren wasn't even at lynch -1

[TDC]

I don't see why that would matter. Still requires Ren to be suicidal if scum.

[TDC]

Also, if ren-scum wanted to suicide to shorten the day, then why not let one of his buddies hammer him? That theory would only make sense if all of his buddies were already voting him.

[vollkan]

and what exactly was I not doing? Analyzing other players. Please. Read my damn posts. I've devoted a majority of words to theory and mechanics, but the minority that is opinion and players analysis is still far more than the median contribution of players in this game.

Your original response to OGML here did seem like a strawman, but I think this clears it up and is a legit point. In effect, OGML's argument is attacking you for writing surplus.

Also, vollkan are you trying out a new playstyle?..if so why? I have seen you as scum and town, and this playstyle is completely different. You usually have a more hands on approach also no more percentages?

I know self-metting is always vulnerable to wifom and so on, so I don't pretend for this to be authoritative. I think that I basically have two alternate playstyles depending on whether or not I see anything exceptionally scummy (NB: This is alignment independent. When I say "scummy", I include voll-scum attacking things from townies he thinks are scummy or, broadening the term somewhat, capable of being construed as such).

In contrast, and House Mafia leaps in to memory here (mainly because it was the first game where I began to notice this issue) which I think you were in IIRC, if I don't have anything which makes me salivate with either suspicion or bloodlust, I tend to be less aggressively inquisitorial than otherwise.

As for percentages, that's a different matter altogether. Frankly, I just got sick of doing them because they were always being subjected to questioning and I don't think they helped my scumhunting to any degree whatsoever. I've come to see that absence of attack is as meaningful an indicator of my position on somebody than labelling them with a "50" (which, if you recall, was my numeric equivalent for "neutral")

Okay, as promised, a PBPA of Budja:
0: Strongly advises against PGO. No explanation as to why
1: Supports RB over tracker. I disagree, but I think there was enough of a contention on this point that I am not prepared to see
2: Discussion of framers
3: Three days later, pops up to point out that Nuwen's conversing with Korts was prior to role distribution. IIoA.
4: Agrees with Adel's request to hammer and move on.
5: Four days later, votes Ren. I think his vote was reasonably justified (in terms of supplying reasoning for it).
6: Rightly, I think retorts to Ren's "I don't think it qualifies as "logic.""
7: reasonable responses to Ren
8: Says the self-vote is simply anti-town and proves nothing. This point interests me a bit. Unless Budja is scum with Ren, this isn't the sort of comment I would typically expect scum to make. Scum, I think, would be more content to wait and see how the town takes it; given that self-votes have the potential to be very explosive stuff. Then again, Budja may just be faking it and I am just underestimating his tactical ability.
9: The join the dots point which I think is fairly perceptive
10: QFTs someone calling the selfvote a nulltell
11: Brief, but otherwise sound comparison of the three cases
12: I didn't realise it before, but Ren's post to Budja is much the same as he made to me (regarding the three cases thing). I agree with Budja's response.
13: Restates the Sens case
14: Questions Sen's suspicions (though, this is simply restating the question given by Scot in the previous post)
15: Asks Sens for view on Yos
16: Says he asked Sens that question for a good reason, and denies he is lurking. Asks Adel for his views.
17: Agrees that it is strange Sens didn't lump Yos with Scot
18: "Ok then"
19: Says he sees opinions in the QT Adel posted, but not much backing it up and would like to hear more of that
20: I basically agree with this on the FL versus Sens cases
21: Says he isn't great at analysis
22: Met stuff
23: Asks Adel to post views on Sens
24: More met
25: Ditto
26: Post number stuff
27: Didn't have the QT posts versus game time in head apparently. I'm not sure what the significance of that is...
28: Agrees with Adel's plan regarding FL. I want to quote here to show something:

Adel let me get this straight:

Scot is likely town (from Goat's busdrive)
FL looks scummy.
We lynch FL to keep scot (assuming we can protect him on future days) and lynch possible scum.

I guess I can agree with that.

unvote, vote FairieLord

Hitherto, Budja had been clear he saw FL as neutral. This therefore means that this post implies a deviation from his previous position. I find it odd that, if he did genuinely think of FL as neutral, he would so casually shift position (ie. without making any explanation as to why). I would add that the FL lynch was an "easy" lynch for scum to support, in that it was rooted in strong setup logic. That makes me see this as suggesting an eagerness to push an easy wagon.

29: I questioned him about the apparent inconsistency with his earlier "joining the dots" point (I didn't have the above analysis in my head at the time; all I saw was a contradiction) and he reverts back to his original position, instead emphasising the strategic validity of Adel's plan.
30: Agrees on the role-choices toda
31: Reiterates the view in 29.
32: Set of statements. None is particularly profound or revealing.
33: Votes Sens
34: Says Sen's wagon never built up because Ren's was stronger

~~~~~~~~~~~
It's very conservative play, with barely any effort at analysis and only opinions on a few players. 28 is the scummiest post in my view, for the reasons given. A lot of what Budja has said I actually think is legit (and some points I think are very good). However, looking back, he has been most active in his defence and has otherwise been fairly passive. I also don't like the singular attacks on Sensfan. Overall, I'd say moderately scummy; in that 28 is the worst thing, but his behaviour throughout has been largely avoiding of any conflict.

[Ren Hoek]

It's very conservative play, with barely any effort at analysis and only opinions on a few players. 28 is the scummiest post in my view, for the reasons given. A lot of what Budja has said I actually think is legit (and some points I think are very good). However, looking back, he has been most active in his defence and has otherwise been fairly passive. I also don't like the singular attacks on Sensfan. Overall, I'd say moderately scummy; in that 28 is the worst thing, but his behaviour throughout has been largely avoiding of any conflict.

= SCUM

[Ren Hoek]

Case against Adel coming up, courtesy of CKD and OGML, two players whom I very strongly believe to be town.

vote: Adel