Open 160 Bird 7P (GAME!) - before 823

[hohum]

I'm worth trusting. Lynch me and find out if you want to save your scum buddy instead. I promise you that he's lying.

Both you and Yabba need to stop fucking role fishing and start lynching BC.

[VP Baltar]

I'm not opposed to lynching BC today, but lynching an uncounterclaimed powerrole in this setup is frakking stupid. I need a few moments to look at some things and make some considerations.

[hohum]

Look guys. This business about the doc claiming is just pure scum role fishing plain and simple.

If the doc counterclaims to satisfy the requirement of lynching BC then we're going to lose the doc N!. If BC is telling the truth and he is the doc, then we're going to lose the doc right now.

Either way we're going to lose the doc.

We should be lynching BC because there's a mountain of evidence that he's scum. 8+ pages worth. All laid out here right for your very eyes.

There's no reason to believe BC's claim because he hasn't been truthful with us so far one single solitary step of the way. At least if we lynch him without a doc counterclaim we stand a chance of saving the doc, and that would give us more of an advantage going into D2.

[hohum]

I want to point something else out. Keep the size of the setup in mind when thinking about this. 7P. If we mislynch on D1 and doc protection fails N1, that puts us in lylo. That also puts the scum in the situation where the default move on D1 if they're caught is basically to claim a power role to avoid getting lynched. It's such an obvious move. The D2 strategy for scum in this game is to introduce as much WIFOM as humanly possible, then move in for the win.

D1 power role claims in this setup need to be taken with a grain of salt.

[hohum]

Scum win 7P setups like this one far too often because the new crop of players coming up in the ranks simply rely on claims and counterclaims far too much. I'm just asking you guys to think, and think very carefully about the possible outcomes.

[yabbaguy]

Bringing in the table. One thing I'm assuming BC's not is stupid, so vanilla town is off of the chart.

[col]Proceed With Counterclaim[col]Dry Lynch BC (Abandon Counterclaim) BC is Scum[col]Goon is lynched, Doc is NK'd[col]Goon is lost, Doc does not definitively die. BC is Doc[col]Doc is NK'd, but lynch could be put towards Scum. If a scum counterclaims, BC gets lynched, but at least we have Scum lynched the subsequent Day.[col]Doc dies in this scenario too, but this time, it's by lynch, so the Scum are free to use their NK as they damn well please. LyLo is inevitable.

A dry lynch has a tremendous amount of risk attached to it, but it's also the only way the Doc will survive.

It's really a matter of how much you value the Doc, but here's why I'm willing to have him sacrificed:

A) Like said, this is a very accelerated game. Neither side has much room for error, and the Town gains a very, very huge advantage by having a goon gone D1. Whoever strikes first is going to be very happy. A doc is a very fine, fine price to pay for getting halfway to your goal and keeping your mislynch available.
This is where I differ from you Veep, the bottom line is that having to be right TWICE in a row is a daring proposition. Statistically, you'll have to make two 50/50 gambles if we mislynch and there's no docsave, meaning a 25% chance of success. If you lynch a goon, that's a 1/4 gamble and a 1/2 gamble, but if you're right on the former, you win. That's a 5/8 chance (62.5%). Against 25%? Good deal.
B) I envision the doc as a weak role. While the pool of players is small, the Doc loses 2 targets, as the goon and cop are worthless. Then you've gotta *find* the right target. This is all opinionated, but I view the Doc as a weak powerrole. It's a good sacrifice, IMO.

BUT!

I think I screwed up cooperating with the docclaim process. I actually want to *delay* this and question BC further. Like wondering why his general attitude is good for a doc to have. If I continue to find myself at a standstill, for the reasons outlined above, I'll revert back. Either way, I'm not gonna step into a 1/3 gamble just willy-nilly.

[hohum]

yabba: Would meta help convince you that counter-claiming is a bad idea?

I have an example of this setup being run where a D1 claim and counterclaim hurt the town, and gave the scum the victory.

[VP Baltar]

The problem with your theory, hohum, is that lynching a claimed doc is a complete disaster for the town if he actually is the doc. It gives the scum the chance to then hit our cop tonight and the town is basically screwed D2. Your WIFOM about what the scum would do D1 with claiming is pretty useless.

I definitely want to hear from BC about whether he breadcrumbed first before I even consider following through on the lynch. You trying to hammer it through with horrible logic is pretty damn scummy.

The reason a doc counterclaim would be good right now is that it would guarantee us a dead scum in exchange for our doc. Is it the optimal outcome for D1? No, but it isn't the complete disaster of potentially lynching our doc today that you are describing.

[hohum]

Please also consider my own stake in this. If BC flips town, I've basically aligned myself against him, and you can lynch me tomorrow satisfied that you KNOW you've caught scum. Whose case is better? Mine on BC or BC's on me?

[hohum]

I'm also offering to be lynched today (as a last resort) in order to prove my point.

[VP Baltar]

I would like to see that game hohum.

[VP Baltar]

Also, let's hear from BC (and everyone else) before we move ahead with any lynches, mkay?

[hohum]

Also, let's hear from BC (and everyone else) before we move ahead with any lynches, mkay?

Fair enough

I would like to see that game hohum.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10499

[yabbaguy]

@VP-211: Agreed.

Unvote

[hohum]

Look at yabba's second scenario there. Really REALLY think about that.

I'm simply offering a way to potentially avoid lylo here. There's no other option. Any other path we take, lylo is a certainty. At least with this gambit that I'm proposing it isn't a 100% certainty.

[yabbaguy]

Please also consider my own stake in this. If BC flips town, I've basically aligned myself against him, and you can lynch me tomorrow satisfied that you KNOW you've caught scum.

That's CrapLogic. You could both just as easily be misguided town thinking each other is scum. Really, just because you're clashing doesn't mean one's right and one's wrong.

Heck, out of context, you could be distancing scum! (I doubt it.)

We can't lynch Town to prove a point. The game's way too small for that.

[hohum]

I'm perfectly fine with the notion of lyching a townie to catch scum. That will stave off lylo until Day 4, worst case scenario.

You're really short sighted Yabba, and I don't like that.

[hohum]

also if the game goes on that long, don't you think we'll need a doc? We should be exploring the option that attempts to save him

[yabbaguy]

But you're saying it's guaranteed when it's not. Ergo, you're the short-sighted one.

Again, you have ONE mislynch. (unless we get runner-runner Docsaves)

Start Game: 5 town v 2 scum D1
Sacrifice Town + No Docsave: 3 v 2 (LyLo) D2
Scum is Lynched 2 v 1 (LyLo, Game Ends Here) D3

Incorrect statistics are anti-town.

[yabbaguy]

EBWOP: guaranteed that if we lynch you, we'll definitively see BC's guilt/innocence

[hohum]

You're right. My stats were off, apologies. That aside, if you take EVERYTHING into consideration, trying to save the doc is the better option, by your own admission (see table above)

Take a look at BC's bad case on me, then take a look at my+everyone else's case on BC and decide for yourself who is more likely to be lying. Me, or Him.

You will just simply have to trust me that my own lynch will reveal a whole lot of information about BC.

[VP Baltar]

Regardless, more BC, Charnel and Octupis before anything happens.

[hohum]

I'd like to hear from Charnel and Octupis at this point because their cooperation is required to conduct this lynch; however, BC (of course) is going to oppose no matter what we say because he's self-preserving scum.

[hohum]

Yabba isn't going to go along because he's BC's scum partner.

Baltar: you're clearly at least willing to listen to reason.

[yabbaguy]

Yabba isn't going to go along because he's BC's scum partner.

I am already, as I want the counterclaim process to be delayed. Read into posts and be less belligerent.