Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[vollkan]

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

which offers no real opinion (rare for volkan-town) on the difference between Sensfan and Ren

Rare, yes, but the cases on the two of them (at least as I saw them) were pretty much the same in terms of strength. Obviously, the specific tells were different, but I couldn't work out any reason for weighing the set of Ren-tells heavier or lighter than those of Sens

[Adel]

FL-scum would know that his team targeted scot, so when I asked him why he thought the scum targeted Seraphim, the natural reaction for scum is to plead ignorance.

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

he refers to "that list" which I assume references

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

which you will note came before FL posted:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

which is a wold apart from

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill.

.. I'd already connected the majority of the dots for FL, and yet he still posted

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

I don't buy it.

Better point.

he understood my plan and yet never suggested that either the busdriver switched targets on the scum kill, or that the scum tried to kill the person who would be switched.

why do you think he is weaker than Ren Hoek?

Because from what I've seen Ren is capable of doing some scum hunting. Sera was pretty passive throughout.

The most valuable role would probably end up getting switched with one of the weakest players... and I think you understood that.

It took me three times to get what you're saying and now I realize what you're getting it. You're saying it was either driven from a good player to a worse player or scum targetted a worse player as to avoid being driven but retain choice.

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

This. I understood how it worked but didn't get it until you pointed it out just now

(Ok, I'm really V/LA now. Should be leaving in thirty minutes)

now he suddenly understands?

Hanlon's razor (Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity) is a good adage for those of us living in the real world where there aren't many really bad faith actors. In mafia about 25% of us are bad faith actors, and we have to look for signs of malice. Feigned ignorance is the scumtell I hold against FL, but the major reason I want him lynched is because there isn't anything that makes me think that he is less likely to be scum than anyone else, and with scot confirmed and CD we should be able to lock this game up and use the power roles each day to give us more and more confirmed town players. The best way we can break the mechanic of this game is to keep a confirmed player in the CD role, and FL-scum could take that advantage away from us.

[Adel]

Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

in a nutshell, even assuming that he has the same likelihood of being scum as random chance, I think it is clear that we should lynch him. From the POV of other town players there are 3 players who are close to confirmed (self + scot + GR), and there are 13 players alive. Assuming that there are three scum, each remaining player has a baseline of a 33% chance of being scum. That 33% chance + the huge negative impact of FL-scum appointing a new CD of unknown alignment = enough reason for me to advocate his lynch in the strongest possible way.

[Adel]

@Mod:

are you replacing Crywolf?

[vollkan]

FL-scum would know that his team targeted scot, so when I asked him why he thought the scum targeted Seraphim, the natural reaction for scum is to plead ignorance.

Or to give a more strategically-aware response by referring to the prospect of busdriving.

The problem I have with this stage of your reasoning is that the possible reactions of FL-scum are also quite plausibly capable of coming from FL-town

he understood my plan and yet never suggested that either the busdriver switched targets on the scum kill, or that the scum tried to kill the person who would be switched.

Yes, I pointed this out myself a while back. The problem is that it still assumes that town-FL would be able to connect the dots.

Hanlon's razor (Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity) is a good adage for those of us living in the real world where there aren't many really bad faith actors. In mafia about 25% of us are bad faith actors, and we have to look for signs of malice.

That's a good distinction between RL and mafia. But the number of times I have strung up innocents for mistakes, or made blunders myself makes me sceptical of any tells which don't evince intention.

the major reason I want him lynched is because there isn't anything that makes me think that he is less likely to be scum than anyone else, and with scot confirmed and CD we should be able to lock this game up and use the power roles each day to give us more and more confirmed town players. The best way we can break the mechanic of this game is to keep a confirmed player in the CD role, and FL-scum could take that advantage away from us.

in a nutshell, even assuming that he has the same likelihood of being scum as random chance, I think it is clear that we should lynch him. From the POV of other town players there are 3 players who are close to confirmed (self + scot + GR), and there are 13 players alive. Assuming that there are three scum, each remaining player has a baseline of a 33% chance of being scum. That 33% chance + the huge negative impact of FL-scum appointing a new CD of unknown alignment = enough reason for me to advocate his lynch in the strongest possible way.

I have much more sympathy for your argument here, then for the actual scumtell alleged against FL. I was going to say that you are ignoring the cost of losing a town-FL's ability, but then I realised that Scot's effectively confirmed status and the existence of the public vote really negate that cost.

[Budja]

@ckd, I asked sens that as he found scot scummy but not yosarian when they were both questioning him with similar ideas. Still no answer from him.

FL is now scummy with the knowledge of the busdrive. That would give a scum a good reason to be surprised.

Adel let me get this straight:

Scot is likely town (from Goat's busdrive)
FL looks scummy.
We lynch FL to keep scot (assuming we can protect him on future days) and lynch possible scum.

I guess I can agree with that.

unvote, vote FairieLord

[vollkan]

Budja, how do you square that with this?

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm.

I'm honestly still not convinced by the case against FL. However, Adel is correct here; with Scot mostly confirmed, FL is more a liability then an advantage to the town at this point; he basically has a role that is significantly worse then a vanilla townie here.

Plus, especally after Adel's post 549, not quicklynching FL is frankly a risk the town can't afford to take here.

Vote: FaerieLord

[Yosarian2]

Actually,

Unvote, Vote:Farielord

, just to be safe.

[Budja]

The busdrive.

As a town player I was a little confused for a bit before understanding. FL could possibly have done the same thing.
However, the busdrive would have changed the scum's kill creating a want to feign surprise even if they knew about the busdrive as they would expect everyone to be as surprised as they are.

So a confused player is more likely to be scum.

So a null tell that has become scummy with this additional information.

I don't see FL is not scummy enough to lynch solely for that.

Since scot is likely town, removing possible scum FL which I believe Adel is saying and I can agree with this. It helps to protect an important role and could quite possibly hit scum.

[Adel]

by my count:
(6) FaerieLord- Goatrevolt, Adel, Ren Hoek, TDC, Budja, Yosarian2,

I have much more sympathy for your argument here, then for the actual scumtell alleged against FL. I was going to say that you are ignoring the cost of losing a town-FL's ability, but then I realised that Scot's effectively confirmed status and the existence of the public vote really negate that cost.

I thought I'd pointed that out a couple of times.

will you hammer please?

[vollkan]

Unvote, Vote: FaerieLord

[Adel]

thank you.

[Adel]

⁽¹³⁾ Please vote in bold, such as

Code: Select all

[b]vote: Korts[/b]

Unvoting is not necessary, but I'd prefer it if you did anyway.

so this means that TDC's vote was legal, so that should be a hammer.

[FaerieLord]

Firstly, three votes all without correct spelling? I'm impressed people Thanks yos for fixing this

This isn't true FL.

Ehh, ok you're right :/

with a confirmed CD, you are a role that is high risk (if you are scum) and low reward (if you are town) since what you add to the game (ability to replace CD) is redundant as we can elect a new CD.

You "acted" surprised when Seraphim was killed, and I do not believe that was an honest response. That Budja, a player who is clearly not paying attention to detail, made the same mistake does little to support your innocence in my mind, since I think you are more competent than he is.

Without overwhelming evidence of your innocence, I think you should die. This is early in the game, and you are too high risk and low reward for you to be left alive.

So it's a tactical move rather than lynching someone you deem scummy?

Ehh, I get it, and it seems like a good move. Good luck town ^^

[Korts]

From: faerielord@genericads-mis.com
To: All Departments
CC: ether@genericads-hq.com
Subject: you'll regret this

As I'm sure you're aware, since you idiots did this, I have just been fired. Just so you know, I never liked you, and every one of you is an annoying, self-absorbed, pretentious jerk. Suck it, losers!

Ever so lovingly,
FaerieLord, ex-CEO

---

(7) FaerieLord- Goatrevolt, Adel, Ren Hoek, TDC, Budja, Yosarian2, vollkan

(1) Ren Hoek- SensFan
(1) SensFan- scotmany12

not voting:

OhGodMyLife, FaerieLord, crywolf, curiouskarmadog

7 to lynch

Deadline for Day 1 is 6PM EST August 4.

FaerieLord, CEO, fired Day 1

---

@Mod:

are you replacing Crywolf?

Yes, I've contacted a prospective replacement.

[Korts]

From: vollkan@genericads-mis.com
To: Account Services Department
CC: -
Subject: Accounts

These are the prospective clients we'll be discussing today:

Holmes and Marlowe PI Firm

are back with a request for another campaign. Apparently they liked our previous pitch so much that they don't even want to wait until the success of the last campaign is evident. Dumbasses.

Thugs'R'Us Security

is opening up a Misanthropolis branch, and they want us to show people just how large their muscles are. This should be a nice, challenging job.

Protective Technologies

has made a new bulletproof vest and wants to broaden its horizons. The brief says that they want to make it clear that in today's scum infested world only a bulletproof vest can make a household truly safe. Lolza.

Lou's Downtown Gun Shop

wants us to make a campaign for their bargain shotgun shells. Again, Lou wants something legal as well as something that's relevant to the shop. And he also wants a seperate campaign for the new batch of 9mm handguns he got shipped. If this weren't Misanthropolis, I wonder if Lou could order three seperate ad campaigns in short succession...

Meeting at 9 AM. Be there or be fired.

Hugz,
vollkan, Head of Account Services

---

Accounts

During Working Hours one of you may target a player; you will, at the end of the day, recieve a list of all the players visited by your target between the time you targeted them and the end of the day.

During Working Hours one of you may target a player; that player's actions will, from the time you sent your choice of target onwards until the end of the day, be blocked; they will also be protected from one kill attempt.

During Morning phase of Working Hours, you must choose one of you to use the following passive ability: any kill attempts against you will fail. If you don't send a choice of a user until the end of Morning, one of you will randomly be chosen.

During Working Hours one of you may target a player; that player will die.

During Working Hours one of you may target a player; that player will die.

[Korts]

(0) Tracker-
(0) Jailkeeper-
(0) Bulletproof-
(0) Vigilante-
(0) None-

not voting:

vollkan, crywolf, Ren Hoek, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog

3 to approve

It is now Morning Meeting of Day 2. Everyone may post, but only Account Services players have votes.

Deadline for Day 2 is 6 PM EST August 22.

[TDC]

I'm thinking JK (targetting scot) for one team, Tracker + Bulletproof for another.

[Adel]

I agree.

[vollkan]

/agree

[Budja]

agree.

[Adel]

GR did target scot, according to the tracker report I just got from Korts.

[Ren Hoek]

Give me vig and I'll kill Budja.

Budja has lurked and remained very wimpy and tentative, very cautious with his words, and very short, like he's trying not to give himself away.

Otherwise the choices are pretty obvious.

[SensFan]

Give me vig and I'll kill Budja.

Budja has lurked and remained very wimpy and tentative, very cautious with his words, and very short, like he's trying not to give himself away.

Otherwise the choices are pretty obvious.

You do understand that you can't be given a role, right?