Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #49=-

Namttam (5) - SerialClergyman, Kmd4390, SpyreX, Xylthixlm, Kublai Khan
Xylthixlm (5) - roflcopter, Lowell, curiouskarmadog, Namttam, Wickedestjr
Hayker (1) - molestargazer
Lowell (1) - Hayker

Not Voting (1) - Faraday

7 to lynch.

[Kublai Khan]

?!?

Any reason you're trying to start a counter-wagon this late in the day, Hayker?

[SpyreX]

Ohh and Hay I dont understand what you mean in 1823 at all. Please explain.

[Xylthixlm]

Is anyone else getting a weird feeling from Namttam's posts recently? He's defending like scum, but attacking like town. I'm thinking it's because he's Cerulean and actually believes rofl's case that I'm Vermillion.

[Hayker]

?!?

Any reason you're trying to start a counter-wagon this late in the day, Hayker?

I actually brought up Lowell awhile ago, but everyone seemed to ignore it. I just decided to give it another push, since I'm not 100% comfterable with either of the current lynchings. I'd rather go with something that in my eyes, seems more like a sure thing.

[Hayker]

Ohh and Hay I dont understand what you mean in 1823 at all. Please explain.

When you were catching up, you occasionally posted a comment, with views that are exactly what's happening, as if your prediciting to game perfectly...or simply read th first post.

[Xylthixlm]

Reading the first post is scummy??

[SerialClergyman]

I disagree with KK about Hayker starting a wagon on someone else. Lowell would be up on my scumlist and if Hayker isn't comfortable with one of the wagons, why shouldn't he try to vote who he thinks is most scummy?

I have had real trouble getting onto the site in recent days so I apologise for my lack of activity. I was, I think, the first to vote Namttam today, so I don't know why you're surprised.

Your attacks on JR and VP were always suspicious. You tried to piggyback on a point I was calling him up on day 1 and the attacks never made sense, see my post @ 976. (also, it was the second time I caught you piggybacking.) But at one point you dismissed the case on VP when he replaced but then brought it up again later, which was never answered well (see 752).

Your vote on VP at the start of D2 ignored all of the information from the flips, as did your case on KK. You've done very little to prod or scumhunt properly. Even at this moment, when you have a wagon against you and you could be lynched, if you were town, I'd expect you to be providing information and scumhunting that we could use the next day. The most you seem to be prepared to do is ask for people to provide a case on you.

So that's the part of my suspicions that haven't already been pointed out by everyone else.

[SerialClergyman]

The problem wasn't that he was reading the first post, the problem that he was typing his 'thoughts' while re-reading and happening to be 100% correct on every issue until he was called out on it. As someone who actually went through a re-read and then played the game out, things haven't been anywhere near as clear as Spyrex was saying.

[Xylthixlm]

SerialClergyman: I presume you mean posts before SpyreX's iso post 11, which is the point at which he's all caught up.

Here they are, all together:

Sup, replacement in the house (not even sure who I replaced yet).

I'll be playing catchup now.
-
Up to page 28 and I swear if you haven't killed Mastin the "OHH GOD I AM SO SCUM IT IS OOZING FROM MY PORES" I will kill a kitten.

There are others.
-
Another note:

Seriously. Follow me here.

Megaposts are like chocolate. They are nice every once in a while.

Instead, we have a bunch of fat babies who probably can't roll over anymore. My lord almighty. GET ON A TREADMILL
-
@Rofl, Lowell, Faraday, Empkings Alt, Mufasa via 34-35:

WHAT IN THE HELL?

Not all 5 of you can be scum. No way.

What in the hell was that. Seriously.
-
Ohh Zaz was scum what a surprise there

We hath a pro-town killing role as well. Guaranteed.
-
I swear to god if ckool is the lynch kittens on the other side of the UNIVERSE will tremble in preparation for the kicks coming.
-
Ohh hay look at that he's the vig. MORE SURPRISES 'in ON IN
-
:O Well I'll be damned I thought for sure Mastin/Zaz were going to be the same group.

That doesn't change TOO much but kills my "swarm tactics theory" a little.
-
I'm still catching up you silly goose(geese). I'm on 61.

I have SHOCKING REVELATIONS when I'm done.

No kidding those shouldn't be huge piles of super information - they are just the most obvious notes as I'm going along.
-
... Wicked is the mason partner?

God damnit.

(note this means I believe Hayker and THROWS OUT a ton of my ideas)
-
... TWO neighbor sets and masons?

The secret 4th neighbor is scum. Hands down.

The first thing I notice here is that he's not saying his opinions as he forms them. He only comments when he's either smug at being correct ("Ohh hay look at that") or surprised at being incorrect ("I'll be damned").

It's a stretch to say that he was "typing his 'thoughts' while re-reading"; he was clearly holding most of his opinions back. He's definitely not trying to appear "100% correct on every issue", since he claims to be

wrong

on some of them!

[Xylthixlm]

Right about now roflcopter should be deciding that SpyreX is my scumpartner rather than Kmd.

5... 4... 3... 2...

[SerialClergyman]

You are correct about him saying his opinions after he knows whether they are true ort not on the re-read, but it was a post-as-he-read so presumably we are to take it as an asumption he build by reading and then posts to confirm truth. But in your list above, KMD pointed out his surprising accuracy rate the post before he wrote the 'Oh, I'll be damned' post.

So until that point, he says that Mastin was absolutely definitely scum (1), rofl lowell mufasa etc are crazy for switching to mafiamann (which means he successfully read that guy as town, (2) ), that Zazie was no surprise when she flipped (3) and that we guaranteed have a protown killing role (4). Then ckool shyouldn't be the lynch (5) and then ckool was obviously the vig (6).

So that's 6 assumptions that happened to be correct until he was called out on his surprising success rate then the very post after that he started showing some signs of weakness in his Nostradamus-like ability.

It's not hugely scummy in and of itself, it just means (imho) he had a cheat-sheet look at the first page and then talked up his own read of the game. That and I've gone a re-read from when I replaced in, and I'm sure others have done full rereads (ckd and kmd both come to mind?) and it took me probably 4 hours of solid reading and checking to do some of the first day and when I was done I had some idea of who was scummy, but nothing dramatically concrete.

Spyrex managed to come in, re-read it in about an hour or so and make six correct assumptions out of six before being called on it. A feature of my game is the gutwrenching uncertainty that I have whenever I play this game, I get frustrated and run myself into loops thinking about who could be who. Whenever I see evidence of someone who just doesn't have that at all I can't help but think it partially scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

SC: I don't read that as intending to be a post-as-you-read. YMMV.

[Xylthixlm]

The first thing I notice here is that

he's not saying his opinions as he forms them.

He only comments when he's either smug at being correct ("Ohh hay look at that") or surprised at being incorrect ("I'll be damned").

Really. I don't see any evidence that SpyreX intends for

anyone

to think that he's giving all of his opinions as he reads. It's blatantly obvious that he's not doing that. He's not making any attempt to hide it.

[SerialClergyman]

Up to page 28 and I swear if you haven't killed Mastin the "OHH GOD I AM SO SCUM IT IS OOZING FROM MY PORES" I will kill a kitten.

How is that not intended to be seen as an opinion while he reads? He's up to a certain point, he doesn't know whether we've lynched Mastin or not, but he's essentially saying 'so far I think he's scummy'.

[SpyreX]

Its late and I'm just checkin in but real quick:

No, I didn't read the first post because I find it a lot more useful to read it fresh AND then see the connections. Thus:

1.) It was space-obvious Mastin was scum.
--- No matter what silliness you want to bring, that has nothing to do with MafiaMann. The only issue with his lynch was the fact it was NOT LYNCHING MASTIN WHO OPTED TO HAVE SIRENS GOIN BEOOO BEOOO.

2.) It was also fairly obvious CKool was vig. Seriously. Go read his whole business with the N0 kill and see the shock and or awe.

3.) As Xyl mentioned, the two things I commented on most were: 1.) When my reads were proven right and 2.) When my reads were proven absolutely wrong.

So, your little bulleted list:

1.) MafiaMann != Mastin. I was making it very clear that MASTIN was scum. Simple. You could have lynched Zaz and had a scum flip and that wouldn't have changed the fact Mastin was super scumbolina.
2.) That isn't a function of MafiaMann being town as much as the weakest fattest no explanation wagon I've seen in a LONG while.
3.) Zazie's no surprise with the flip isn't a piece of key deduction. Good gravy.
4.) With -Mufasa- dying there was no doubt we have a vig. No one kill would have made that more obvious.
5.) Ckool was getting strung up on absolute garbage. This after it being fairly obvious he was beating over the head he killed Konowa well.
6.) See 5.

Not tough.

I raise you this though:

Lets say you WERE right and I read it and pretended I am superawesome man in a proven two scum group setup if I am scum.

Wouldn't I just be setting myself up for a NK?

As an aside:

<3 Xyl.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX: Key word

all

.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP

SpyreX

SerialClergyman: Key word

all

.

[SerialClergyman]

Well you're either over the top hot shit and a hell of a lot better than me, or you're just lying. No way many of the things you think were blindingly obvious were close to obvious for me. I couldn't see any difference between Mastin's normal play and his play for most of D1, it was only in D2 when his playstyle changed dramatically that I started to think he was worth voting. I never thought Zaz was scummy apart from one small moment, I completely thought ckool was scum, especially on the zaz flip.

All this could just be a record of my failings, but we've had 20 odd people in this game and noone has come close to that level of reading of the game, that I know of.

Lets say you WERE right and I read it and pretended I am superawesome man in a proven two scum group setup if I am scum.

Wouldn't I just be setting myself up for a NK?

Well, this question is odd for three reasons...
1) The WIFOM of it all,
2) I don't see any reason why doing what I assumed you'd be doing would make you more likely to be night killed. All it looked like you were doing was bignoting your reads, possibly to try to add some emphasis to your future reads.
3) If your logic is that claiming to be awesome puts a target on your back, why would you now go to a lot of trouble to bring that up and confirm it?

[SerialClergyman]

Xyl - if the first post obviously intends to be viewed as 'post as you go', then surely the next ones would as well? Unless your point is the first one was made at page 28 but the rest were made after looking at what has happened?

Either way that argument is a red herring - Spy posted above saying that he was indeed posting as he go and he did indeed just get it right.

[Xylthixlm]

You didn't think to lynch Mastin when he

claimed scum

? Seriously?

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl - if the first post obviously intends to be viewed as 'post as you go', then surely the next ones would as well? Unless your point is the first one was made at page 28 but the rest were made after looking at what has happened?

Either way that argument is a red herring - Spy posted above saying that he was indeed posting as he go and he did indeed just get it right.

Er, let's see if I can make this more clear.

There's two styles of catching up. One is to make frequent posts as you read summarizing your opinions so far. The other is to save your opinions until you've read everything, then make one post with all of them. SpyreX was clearly doing mostly the second style. The only opinions he actually claimed

before

he got to the point where it was proven/disproven were on Mastin and ckool. So your "100% correct" is really 2 out of 2 - not that impressive, actually.

As for whether those opinions are reasonable, maybe you think they aren't. But Mastin was playing super-scummy. You gave him a pass on "meta", but that's your problem. I would have lynched him the moment he claimed scum. As for ckool, I don't have trouble believing that SpyreX spotted vig tells.

[SerialClergyman]

I wasn't around when he claimed scum in the RVS. I replaced in towards the end of D1, and I thought most of Mastin's posts were scumhunting Mastin. I didn't like certain elements of his play (his breadcrumb was weak, his claim that tells don't apply to him was a weak way of deflecting criticism, his caring about which scum faction etc) but no, I didn't think he was obviously mafia at all. And most of the attacks against him at the time were things like his posting style is long and obsfucating, which was so obviously within meta it wasn't worth it. I got the impression most of the Mastin wagon in D1 were there because he was irritating. It was later in D2 when his meta changed and his main contribution was a poor theory about 4 night kills that I started seriously thinking he was scum.

However - all this is a barely relevant aside to the point - Spy claims to have just nailed every major issue for the first couple of days on a re-read that couldn't have been thorough. I thought it was just bignoting, but if on reflction he's standing by his claim that's something a little more dicey, to my mind.

Reading the first post is scummy??

Wasn't your point, Xyl, that he obviously was talking with hindsight? Why no reaction when you read that he says he didn't?

[Xylthixlm]

BTW, let me make a theoretical tangent here. Some players adopt a consistently scummy playstyle so that people can't read them when they're scum. If you don't lynch them eventually, they'll just win if they're scum; and if you have to lynch someone eventually it's better to do that early rather than late. In theory it might be a good idea to keep a good scumhunter around, but in practice good scumhunters never fall into this category.

Thus, I follow this rule:

Any player who is playing in a way deliberately designed to obscure scumtells should be lynched immediately, regardless of meta.

[Xylthixlm]

tl;dr: Yes you should lynch people who are obfuscating, even if they're within meta.