Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Special Ed]

vote: Raivann

I'm suspicious of everyone, but I am willing to buy into Zorblag's case at this point. I've only skimmed some of the game mentioned here. This type of metagamey analysis (which I myself have engaged in in this game) always makes me feel a little dirty. The fact that Nuwen had done such analysis so early in the game does imply that he

might

have done it in researching who would be the Chosen.

It's as good a case as any we have at this point, and we do need to make sure we lynch and attempt to lynch a Scum/non-Chosen rather than leave to to a random Townie who may be the Chosen.

[Zorblag]

OK, here's one last thing to keep in mind about the dynamic for the rest of the game. The scum have a lynchee, the chosen. They have to get that person lynched. When it gets to the end of the day if there's someone who hasn't been attacked at all there's a good chance that they are not the chosen. That doesn't mean they should get lynched if that's the only case against them but if you think someone has been acting scummy and no on has been attacking them at all you can be pretty sure they aren't the chosen. If the chosen does act scummy the scum have every reason to try to get them lynched based on that.

Here's something the mod said in the other chosen game that was run after everything was over that illustrates how you can use this point:

(actually, I'll post it in a second in case twilight ends while I'm grabbing it.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I think ekiM made a good choice by killing ABR -- I'm almost positive that if ABR was left alive during Day 4, he likely would have self-hammered since I think he pretty much concluded that he wasn't the Chosen One since nobody really attacked him despite doing some fairly questionable stuff. It didn't lead to a scum win in the long run, but at least it prolonged the game and still gave scum a chance to win.

Remember that in endgame if you're sure you're not the chosen a self hammer is actually good for the town. This is very non-standard and normally town should never hammer in LyLo. Remember that this game is fundamentally different when making your choices.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Special Ed]

I think ekiM made a good choice by killing ABR -- I'm almost positive that if ABR was left alive during Day 4, he likely would have self-hammered since I think he pretty much concluded that he wasn't the Chosen One since nobody really attacked him despite doing some fairly questionable stuff. It didn't lead to a scum win in the long run, but at least it prolonged the game and still gave scum a chance to win.

Remember that in endgame if you're sure you're not the chosen a self hammer is actually good for the town. This is very non-standard and normally town should never hammer in LyLo. Remember that this game is fundamentally different when making your choices.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Of course, now this will be less useful as it wouldn't be difficult for the Scum to avoid such a scenario

[Zorblag]

I'm not sure how scum could avoid someone deciding that they're not the chosen in a LyLo situation. They get to act however they want but they don't get to choose what conclusions others come to.

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Special Ed]

I'm not sure how scum could avoid someone deciding that they're not the chosen in a LyLo situation. They get to act however they want but they don't get to choose what conclusions others come to.

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

No, I meant that with 2 Scum in endgame, one could go after each Town, thereby eliminating that Town advantage. just waiting for the hammer opportunity.

[BloodCovenent]

I'm not sure how scum could avoid someone deciding that they're not the chosen in a LyLo situation. They get to act however they want but they don't get to choose what conclusions others come to.

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

No, I meant that with 2 Scum in endgame, one could go after each Town, thereby eliminating that Town advantage. just waiting for the hammer opportunity.

Not unless we lynch one scum first.

[Zorblag]

I'm not quite sure what the concern is there. That doesn't stop a townie who's sure that they're not the chosen from self hammering (self votes are double votes though I don't think that should matter in most cases for the situations that we're talking about.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hohum]

Final Vote Count

5 Raivann: Zorblag, Herodotus, Papa Zito, TDC, Special Ed

1 Herodotus: Raivann
0 Special Ed
1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
1 Papa Zito: MiteyMouse
0 TDC

[hohum]

As the town gathered around, accusations flew in all directions. The town elders watched in glee as Raivann was dragged to the tree and hung by the neck.

Raivann

,

Mafia Scum

, Lynched, D1

It is now N1. Night actions are due by Tuesday.

[hohum]

Screams were heard by the villagers throughout the night. Out of fear and disbelief nobody went to check... until morning...

"Is everyone accounted for?" shouted one from the crowd. Everyone checks, and rechecks only to slowly realize that one of their own had vanished.

TDC

,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed, N1

[hohum]

A new day dawns. Good luck.

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch

[hohum]

dry-fit replaces Bloodcovenant

[afatchic]

Screams were heard by the villagers throughout the night. Out of fear and disbelief nobody went to check... until morning...

"Is everyone accounted for?" shouted one from the crowd. Everyone checks, and rechecks only to slowly realize that one of their own had vanished.

TDC

,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed, N1

Highly shocked at this.

Sorry about my absence for the end of day 1, but i was pretty busy in RL and neglected both my mafia games. I need to reread the last few pages of day 1 and give some opinions.

By the way, when i said yesterday i was fully ready to change my vote, but i just needed the time to make my case, that was on TDC, so now im just not sure where i am going.

[Herodotus]

Welcome, dry-fit. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

@ afat and MM -- please post your thoughts about a scumteam including Raivann and the person you were voting (BC and PZ, respectively.)

@afat 338 -- Shocked why? Because he was town, or because he was killed?

[Special Ed]

I'm not certain that Mitey would be so bold as to off the person voting for her.

But, then again, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM.

[Herodotus]

I'm not certain that Mitey would be so bold as to off the person voting for her.

But, then again, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM.

BloodCovenant was replaced, not nightkilled. I suppose the fact that you didn't know that means you must be town.

[Special Ed]

I'm not certain that Mitey would be so bold as to off the person voting for her.

But, then again, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM.

BloodCovenant was replaced, not nightkilled. I suppose the fact that you didn't know that means you must be town.

Oh, yeah, my mistake.

So, yes, I'm either Town or tricksy Scum.

[Zorblag]

Welcome to the game Dry-fit. I'd love to hear your reactions to the first day when you've had a chance to get caught up.

TDC's death didn't strike me as surprising at all. I had him down as almost certainly town based on the questions he was asking about how the rules work and almost certainly not the chosen one based on my own thoughts and the responses to the survey. That combination is exactly the sort of kill I would expect.

Right now my best bets for the chosen one are Herodotus followed by myself. Herodotus is based on Nuwen's early vote for Archon and then, probably more strongly, Raivann's continued vote on Herodotus. I don't think that Raivann was a particularly sophisticated player based on what I saw here and what I've read in his other games. I can very easily see him simply going for the lynch of the chosen when he didn't have any better options at the start. I'm there because of Raivann's list of people to exclude which includes me at random when I both don't make sense on that list at all (and I did try to point out who she should be choosing between) and her other random choices looked as though they were simply following the lists others had made (to the point of including herself in the form of Nuwen.) I'm not ruling out others and I would rank the remaining players in likelyhood as follows: Dry-fit, afatchic, Special Ed, Papa Zito, MiteyMouse.

I think that Papa Zito and Herodotus were on the Raivann wagon too early for it to be likely day one bussing so I'm ruling them out as scum for now. I know I'm not scum so that leaves me with afatchic, Dry-fit, MiteyMouse, Special Ed.

afatchic's reaction to TDC's lynch is surprising espeically after he said that TDC was the only one he would want to make sure wasn't the chosen when making his list of those he'd exclude. His PBPA doesn't fit what scum behavior should be like in this game if my instincts about who is likely to be the chosen are correct. He's a bit scattered with his attention but right now I'm inclined to think that he's town. I wouldn't be interested in voting for him today unless it was to avoid a no lynch or something changes.

Dry-fit is replacing BloodCovenent. I like how BloodCovenent interacted with Nuwen and Archon at the start of the game. Especially how he does call Nuwen out for improper meta use. There are some issues with the list he came up with for exclusions (TDC's place among other things) but I'm not that unhappy with how he left his vote on MiteyMouse as I think that was a pretty safe place to have it. Unless MiteyMouse or possibly Papa Zito were to turn up as the chosen right now my guess would be town.

MiteyMouse's big push yesterday seemed to be her whole deal about me passing information to a scum partner based on a question I asked. Hopefully we can get past that idea now that Raivann has flipped scum. Unless someone thinks that I was trying to pass messages to Raivann with my question it's not an issue anymore. If someone does think that then they're going to shoot way up on my suspicion list unless they can give some probable way that would have worked. There's some chance that she was trying to work her way around to involving Herodotus in her suspicions there which I don't like and right now I don't have a great reason to think that she's done anything to help the town. I'd be fine lynching MiteyMouse today as I think she is unlikely to be the chosen and don't have a reason to think she's not scum.

Special Ed seems to be on top of his game; I like that in a player. He's replaceing AshMC1984 who I think could have been a good candidate for being the chosen but no one got around to voting for him despite how scummy he was. Special Ed's vote for Raivann could pretty easily be either what he describes, a townie agreeing with my reasoning and voting to end the day before we had to worry about the deadline or a calculated move on scum's part to not be off the wagon when the day was done as it was pretty clear that Raivann was going to be the lynch no matter what Special Ed did. I'm also slightly worried that Special Ed seemed to be trying to set up reasons to go after MiteyMouse today while continuing to give credibility to her communication idea. As I think he's subtle I don't rule out the possibility of him intentionally mistaking who was killed last night to reinforce a later vote for MiteyMouse. As far as the scum argument goes I could go either way for Special Ed. Seeing more from him will most likely help. I do think he's a bit too likely to be a potential chosen one to want to vote for him at this point.

Vote: MiteyMouse

It's not set in stone and I'm not sure she's scum but she seems like the best bet right now for both avoiding the chosen one and potentially hitting scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Dry-fit]

Urgh! I had this whole post typed out, and then lost it.

Right now, my top suspect is Special Ed, followed by Zorblag.

For Zorblag, I feel like he spent too much time focusing on the Chosen mechanic. I agree with Papa Zito that the main focus in this game should be scumhinting. I feel like Zorblag was trying to look pro-town by trying to take advantage of a game mechanic without, in my opinion, helping town out too much.

Herodotus is based on Nuwen's early vote for Archon and then, probably more strongly, Raivann's continued vote on Herodotus.

I agree with this however. I think Herodotus is a terrible lynch for today, for this very reason.

Special Ed:

First, Ash comes out with a quick meta argument against Archon and votes him without any reason other than that. afatchick then shows that the meta argument is false, but Ash never defends his accusation.(Unfortunately, Ash replaces out right at this time, so it's impossible to say whether he avoided the question or just needed to be replaced before he could comment.)

This caught my eye:

The fact that you seem to be pushing the discussion toward Raivann and me being Scum is another given that I know you're half wrong (This only works for me, as you'll have no idea)

First, I don't like it when people use the "I am town so you are wrong" argument. Second, notice how Special Ed mentions the pairing of him and Raivann, now confirmed scum! What's worse, he pretty much brought up the idea himself.

I don't recall particularly pushing for a Nuwen/AshMC1984 scum pair before you'd made your first post

You may be thinking there's no way scum would bring up the possibility of their actual scumpair, but I disagree. Special Ed seems to think the pairing is inevitable, and he almost seems as if he is already preparing for a defense, as if he already knows Raivann is scum.

Special Ed plays the "I am town" card three more times:

Knowing my alignment, I, of course, view with suspicion the case built against me.

If I subbed in as someone else, I would probably be buying into the Ash is Scum theory. As I know Ash was not Scum, I'm not buying it.

To be honest, I read the game before getting my role, I was expecting to find myself being a Scum.

Doesn't sit well with me at all.

Vote: Special Ed

For now I really have nothing else to offer. However I'd be happy to answer any questions/comment on anything if anyone wants.

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit, clearly you've read the game. I wonder if you can explain why it is that you think that it's better to simply go with standard scum hunting rather than trying to take advantage of an alternate win option that we've got in this game. I'm simplifying your opinion here as I don't know exactly how much you think it's worth paying attention to the chosen dynamic so if you'd like to correct my characterization of your play please do so.

I've already gone over why it's a good idea to be aware of the chosen in this game. I'll add to that the fact that it was the chosen dynamic as much as scummy play that lead to my vote on day one. If I wasn't using what I knew about how the chosen worked there were certainly other scummy players I could have focused on; I might have voted for scum elsewhere, I might have ended up voting for Raivann anyhow and I'm not going to claim that I was responsible for the wagon on Raivann getting the traction it did. I will claim that focusing on the chosen dynamic was useful in and of itself and it helped me find scum the first day. There isn't any reason that pursing the chosen dynamic needs to detract from our ability to find scum and I don't think that what I've done in this game is causing it to do so.

I'll also point to the latest set of statistics that I've seen about win percentage for town and scum. It was in the Mafia Discussion forum, this post here. Taking a look at the numbers for Coney Island you'll see that scum won 54.78% of the games in this forum. It actually gets worse nearly anywhere else you look. Anything we've got as a tool to help beyond the standard scum hunting is something that we should be pursuing.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Dry-fit]

It's not that I want to completely disregard it, I already agreed with you that Herodotus is a bad lynch because of Raivannscum's tunneling on him making him more likely to be chosen. But I have had trouble getting good reads in this game compared to other games I have played, and I partially attribute this to the extreme focus on the chosen mechanic day 1. Thinking on it more though, it could be for other reasons. Namely, that I replaced into this game, which I have never done before, and have only read through once.

Still, I don't feel the mechanic needed to be explored to that degree yesterday. After replacing when reading the game Nuwen looked extremely scummy to me even before looking at the scum flip. So I don't know how much credit you can give to your chosen dynamic research.

Looking to take advantage of a game dynamic is fine. I just don't think focusing on it so much that it dominates the whole day's discussion is necessary.

[MiteyMouse]

What is MiteyMouse's username for the facebook games? Is it still MiteyMouse? I'm looking through the Superhero game and not finding her at all thus far.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

oh, sorry, It's Mandi. I hope she doesn't mind me giving that information up, but I suppose she references it enough on the mafia sites that it's OK. I'm Andy if that interests you at all. and my wiki is here

Hey Ed...if I ever meet you and give you a random kick to the shins, remember this moment...hehehe!

I have to say that I'm glad that we got one of the Scummies. Though I was surprised. I was pretty sure with my suspicions...oh well, going to have to rethink things now.

Somebody asked about my suspicions about Papa now that we've had a Scum flip. Well, besides Papa's early vote it really doesn't make sense as him being part of the pair. Not that I can see right now anyways. And me having a vote on Papa was thinking that he an Zorblag were the team. I'm going to have to really rethink this whole thing.

I have the next few days off of work and will be able to really look at things here.

[Herodotus]

First, I don't like it when people use the "I am town so you are wrong" argument. Second, notice how Special Ed mentions the pairing of him and Raivann, now confirmed scum! What's worse, he pretty much brought up the idea himself.

I don't recall particularly pushing for a Nuwen/AshMC1984 scum pair before you'd made your first post

You may be thinking there's no way scum would bring up the possibility of their actual scumpair, but I disagree. Special Ed seems to think the pairing is inevitable, and he almost seems as if he is already preparing for a defense, as if he already knows Raivann is scum.

I'm pretty sure I had brought it up before that (just checked: pg 7.) I think Ed just had Zorblag and myself somewhat lumped together.

[Special Ed]

@Zorblag: Can you confirm that this is how you would order who you think is the chosen? Herod, Zorb, afat, Dry, Special, Papa, and Mitey?

@Dry, re: Special So you're case against me is that I defer that my logic will be different than your because I have knowledge that you don't? It's common where I play to lay out both cases, the case I know and the case you'd be aware of. It can be helpful after the death of the player making the comments. And, you'll notice that my references were in rethinking my point of view after subbing in. As I read the game (before getting my PM) I actually came to the conclusion that I was most likely going to be Scum. I wasn't. So, my initial reaction was to look at who was building the case against me. That led to my initial posts being filled with OMGUS content. I felt it necessary to mention that as I was questioned on my initial posts in the game. I did have to backtrack considerably when the cloud of OMGUS dissipated.

@Dry, re:Zorblag, your suspicion on him sounds similar to the suspicion I had immediately after subbing. He does seem to dominate the game, but do you honestly think he would have been pushing early and hard for a lynch of his scumbuddy? There was plenty of opportunity to change that opinion, but he was steadfast. Yes, he's pushy but pushy != scum.