Newbie 799 - Katana Village (Game Over!)

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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:35 am

Post by Truant »

Ok, caught up and a couple things:

1) You're all damn lucky for the rules of the game. Every game I've read says that if there's not enough votes for a lynch then there's a nolynch. To get one for the highest vote-getter allows much more wiggle room for scum to perhaps not both be on a wagon. From the way I see it, it's very hard to get anybody lynched with no scum on the wagon which is why vote analysis works at all. In a game with two scum, having one on the wagon would make it average difficulty, while having no scum makes it really tough.

At the end of D1, on Mevorra we had: Nureins, Edmund and Belili.
On Weepy we had Pika, Green who is confirmed town, Mevorra and Tubby/wicked.

Obviously weepy was a townie, so I look at the other people on the vote. Pika, Mevorra and Tubby/wicked. Pika was on green when he got to L-1, and then on Weepy for her L-1. Mevorra was on Green for his L-1, on Belili for his L-2, and then on Weepy for her L-1. Tubby/wicked was only on Belili.

Major suspicion continues on Mevorra/xBEKx for being on 3 of the major wagons yesterday, and then today xBEKx is voting tubby for doing basically the same thing Mev did on D1 (vote Weeping to prevent a lynch on Mev). Tubby only being on 1 major wagon keeps my suspicion down on him, but the circumstances to save Mevorra are suspicious. To reiterate: Tubby is only most likely scum if Mevorra flips due to saving a scum partner. I don't understand how you can miss who the NK was though, from either perspective. Scum would know who they kill, and townies would have to be able to look at who's confirmed town. Still more likely that forgetting in this case is a townie tell rather than a scum tell. Also considering my point about how it's somewhat difficult for people to get lynched, I'm curious as to why Mevorra's wagon stalled. One scenario is where they're scum and the partner doesn't want to hammer/get her lynched. Obviously that's not the only scenario, but the way it built up just so much steam and fizzled is strange. With the mev/tubby votes after, it certainly looks like this is the case though.

The other scenarios is that she was scum, and the partner was already on the wagon, she's town, one or both scum were also on the wagon so townies were away from the game/cautious/didn't believe the evidence against her, or she's townie and scum were never on the wagon. I'll need to go through and look at everybody in isolation to get a better feel on that.

xBEKx: Now that I'm caught up, I'm willing to vote you. I would suggest that you claim as my vote would put you at L-1. In the case of you not being scum, this would allow scum to quick hammer you cutting off discussion, while leaving them a free door to another NK and lylo. Yes, this would allow the hammerer to come under serious suspicion and probably lynched, that'd still look like a shorter day with less to really go on to look for a partner if the hammerer was scum.

ALMOST
voting for xBEKx.
RAWR!
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:08 pm

Post by James.Denholm »

I hope I'm not out of line by posting an apology, but I feel that you all deserve one.

Unfortunately, my family and I went on a week-long holiday, which only ended a couple of days ago. Stupidly, my ignorance and arrogance led me to not post anything. For that, I am sorry. But perhaps, it is for the better: You have Truant, who already seems to be a far more committed player than myself. This game, as well as 805, have caused me to question my own commitment, and I will only be joining a new game if I find a satisfactory answer.

On a final note, Truant, I apologise for you to have to come in and take over. I wish you the best of luck.

James.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:52 pm

Post by edmund.angles »

@pikapizza: Thanks, that was some interesting meta on tubby.

about tubby: Seems like his MO to be extremely reckless and lazy town player. He wrote himself in the game that pikapizza brought to our attention
tubby wrote:i know it seems like i screwed this up but it was my goal all along to trim the fat sort to speak and rush into endgame where it would be more clear to me because replacing in there were to many people and too much text to sift through
This also refers to him hammering all the time! Please be extra careful about L-1. Perhaps we should in general use the ALMOST VOTE in stead of a real vote to effectively bring someone to L-1(even tubby) if he's not already on the wagon. This meta takes him nudge down on the ol' scummeter, I will reconsider my vote.

@tubby: Have you gotten older and wiser since that game?

@Bek: please provide an analysis of tubby's play, I don't think you've given enough explanaition for your vote.

@Truant: After post 50, where I made the mistake of calling Mevorra "she" and I was corrected by Mevorra in post 60, everyone has consistently called him "he". How come you haven't picked up the proper pronoun of your number one suspect in the over 300 post after that?
also:
Truant wrote:1) You're all damn lucky for the rules of the game. Every game I've read says that if there's not enough votes for a lynch then there's a nolynch. To get one for the highest vote-getter allows much more wiggle room for scum to perhaps not both be on a wagon. From the way I see it, it's very hard to get anybody lynched with no scum on the wagon which is why vote analysis works at all. In a game with two scum, having one on the wagon would make it average difficulty, while having no scum makes it really tough.
Why are we lucky if it "allows more wiggle room for scum"?
Should we consider Bek to be effectively at L-1?
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:30 am

Post by tubby216 »

@edmund.

in that game wich wasn't the only one i rushed to endgame, i had it narrowed down who was scum by at least the previuos day. So it was merely a process of elimination. where as this game I am all but lost in. Besides that stratagey of rushing to end game works if you have already lynched or gotten rid of one scum, where its far easier to look for connections. So it really wouldn't work in this case since we have two scum remaining .


but i do think bek is a good choice for lynch today and if you guys prefer i will put him at l-1 rather than hammer it doesn't matter to me
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:15 am

Post by Belili »

Let's just consider him L-1 without the vote. Give him a chance to respond first.

I'm not sure if that would be a good mafia strategy, to out yourself for an easy town lynch.... but just in case let's play it safe.
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:37 am

Post by Truant »

But then who knows who will step up on the wagon and where. Townies will go after scummy play just as often as scum will, so to make yourself an easy target later on is pretty stupid IMO.
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 7:45 pm

Post by edmund.angles »

Ok, I've reconsidered my vote:
On one hand tubby's MO makes it less likely that his weird behaviour mean he's scum in this game.
On the other hand, his MO reduces the bad effects of a mislynch since he's so crappy as town(and doesn't seem to have changed strategy) and is almost impossible to read for scum signals.

Hmm...all in all, someone else is back on top:
Vote: Truant

@Truant: please answer my questions in post 427

Mod, prod nureins, please


PS: MO->modus operandi, method of operating, Truant seemed confused
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 12:51 am

Post by pikapizza »

:!:
Truant

post 425
Truant wrote:Every game I've read says that if there's not enough votes for a lynch then there's a nolynch. To get one for the highest vote-getter allows much more wiggle room for scum to perhaps not both be on a wagon. From the way I see it, it's very hard to get anybody lynched with no scum on the wagon which is why vote analysis works at all.
if i understand you correctly, you're saying that vote analysis does not work because there's "much more wiggle room for scum". why do you then follow up with a vote analysis ?? also, why are we "damn lucky" if we can no longer use vote analysis to scumhunt?
Truant wrote:In a game with two scum, having one on the wagon would make it average difficulty, while having no scum makes it really tough.
just clarifying, but do you mean to say it is difficult
for scum
to get someone lynched if we did
not
have the majority lynch rule? but since we do have this rule implemented, it's far easier to have wagons without scum on them?

if you know this, why then are you analysing the people on the wagons in post 425 ?? and using that as a basis for an almost-vote?

:arrow: why do you think James.Denholm did not vote on D1?

would appreciate some answers.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 9:20 pm

Post by Tenchi »

nureins
has been prodded.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 3:56 am

Post by tubby216 »

well i am goin to bek at l-1 i thing that is the best bet for lynching scum today.


vote: xBEKx
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 6:49 am

Post by Truant »

edmund -> So I should look at pronouns instead of motives? Yes, that's much more useful than looking to see who's scummy....

edmund, pika -> We're lucky as a no-lynch is freaking terrible. Do you really know how bad a no-lynch at any point of the game is? It hurts vote analysis, but it doesn't wipe it out completely. Yes, it's now harder, but it doesn't mean it can't be done at all.

edmund -> Why would I seem confused? I know exactly what MO means, and you only brought that up in that post. How would I be confused over something you just said without looking for a response? Don't try to demean my intelligence. It's not going to help your position no matter what alignment you are.

pika -> No, it's difficult for townies to get lynched with scum not on the wagon. It's also difficult for scum to get lynched without their partner bussing them. I have to try to analyze every player on the wagon, just to look for patterns. Because scum can choose to bus or not bus, you still have to analyze every wagon as they could be pushing for different ones at the same time and then the "losing" wagon would have that scum switch over. It's not that hard to really think about.

For James, I don't know why he didn't vote. This is only a guess, but probably was scared to vote for somebody he didn't know was scum. I see that a fair amount in newbie games, but I honestly can't tell you his motivations as we're not the same person. That's my best guess though.

BEK -> I think it's time to claim now that you're at L-1.
RAWR!
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:52 am

Post by Tenchi »

The town decides to pursue unfinished business from yesterday, quite deciding that it was the other groups turn to have their way. Some of them think that only yesterday's group was wrong and others think that they could be also be wrong today... whilst all of them hoping that they could be right.

Ironically, the day was still long as the morning sun stood and shone brightly upon the fazed village.




VOTE COUNT

(3) xBEKx - Belili, nureins, tubby216

(1) tubby216 - xBEKx
(1) Truant - edmund.angles



Not Voting: Truant, pikapizza

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: August 1, 2009 9:01 AM PST
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 9:22 am

Post by edmund.angles »

Arrgh, pure annoyance:
Bek and nureins seems to both be gone...the man with the all-dominant wagon and it's main proponent. No wonder discussion's been a little low.

@Truant: You spelled MO, IMO, hence you seemed confused. Maybe I'm confused, does IMO mean something? I wanted to make sure I was understood. Not everybody here has English as a first language(me included).

Here's what I find suspicious about you using the wrong pronoun. It indicates that you haven't properly read the suspicions that other people have had on your main suspect.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 9:40 am

Post by Belili »

edmund.angles wrote:Arrgh, pure annoyance:
Bek and nureins seems to both be gone...the man with the all-dominant wagon and it's main proponent. No wonder discussion's been a little low.

@Truant: You spelled MO, IMO, hence you seemed confused. Maybe I'm confused, does IMO mean something? I wanted to make sure I was understood. Not everybody here has English as a first language(me included).

Here's what I find suspicious about you using the wrong pronoun. It indicates that you haven't properly read the suspicions that other people have had on your main suspect.
IMO = In my opinion.... imo.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:41 am

Post by Truant »

So I should sheep to what they're thinking? Or I should find my own opinion?
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 12:01 pm

Post by Truant »

Vote: xBEKx


I reread Mevorra, and then looked over Belili and I'm almost certain that they're partners together. With the weird vote/unvote interactions both D1 and D2, it just looks too coordinated to really be townie on townie while looking very much like scum and scum. With BEK not being around and Nureins not either, this is kinda dying down. This will almost certainly hit scum, and then it'll get everybody more time to get caught up and find the last scum tomorrow.
RAWR!
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 2:55 pm

Post by Tenchi »

VOTE COUNT

(4) xBEKx - Belili, nureins, tubby216, Truant

(1) tubby216 - xBEKx
(1) Truant - edmund.angles



Not Voting: pikapizza

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: August 1, 2009 9:01 AM PST





The second group comes forward saying it was now their turn. After all, realities are built upon dichotomies: one is right, the other should be wrong.

This time, they figured, they must be right.

There was little resistance from xBEKx as four others dragged him to the Town Center. It was quite a sad scene, as the others mainly stood by and watched him meet his fate.

Amongst fast beating hearts in the sea anticipation lie of what could be a step towards the end of this chaos... this massacre. They all wonder, how many of them actually was right?









































Two of them made the right decision!







































xBEKx/Mevorra (
Townie
)
was lynched Day Two.


Deadline for Night actions is on
July 24, 2009 7:00pm PST
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:30 pm

Post by Tenchi »

That night was miserable. Three of the last nine, now gone. Two of which perished in the hands of their own concerned villagers. Everybody were in low spirits. Most of them can't sleep, thinking of what could happen and what should be done. After all... another death in the night is inevitable. You just want to give up, but somehow you feel this day will give a glimmer of hope. Hope that maybe you can avenge your dead neighbors and show more than remorse for your mistakes...




































Except one of you didn't get the chance to do it.
























































Nureins (
Villager
)
was stabbed Night Two.


Day Three commences.
Deadline: August 14, 2009 9:00 PM PST


With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Yes. That same Tenchi. :D

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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2009 11:28 pm

Post by edmund.angles »

LYLO is here, remember that any town-on-town vote will doom the town. So please let everyone have a chance to put out their two cents before voting.

I'm even more suspicious of Truant today than yesterday. Him hammering and ending the day so early was very suspicious. There was no "should I cast the final vote" post. Two essential people had been prodded and we should have waited for their replacements.

His argumentation for hammering is absolute bunk:
Truant wrote: With BEK not being around and Nureins not either, this is kinda dying down. This will almost certainly hit scum, and then it'll get everybody more time to get caught up and find the last scum tomorrow.
How on earth does ending the day prematurely give people more time to get caught up?
His actions are rushing us into the end-game.

FOS: Truant
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Sat Jul 25, 2009 12:21 am

Post by tubby216 »

^agreed

although i am going to do a good re-read i'll post more later
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Sat Jul 25, 2009 4:33 am

Post by Truant »

I thought that there was no way in hell that BEK was a townie. I hear about scum sometimes flaking out when major suspicion is on them, and that's also what I thought was happening to BEK. So I wasn't concerned about him not being here as much as I would've had I thought he was town. With nureins good case against BEK, I thought that he had his vote where he was comfortable with it and wasn't all that worried about where he was either.

My theory on who is scum is currently debunked, so I need to do a reread as well.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2009 8:37 am

Post by Belili »

I have to say I'm at a loss other than truant myself. That last hammer is very suspicious.

All townies have to agree on this one right? ugh :(
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:13 am

Post by Truant »

Well, if you're so convinced I'm scum, there's always a possibility of bussing by my partner. However, I had good intentions when I hammered. I looked through BEK/Mevorra and I saw no tells of a cop so I knew they couldn't be that. I don't think they would've claimed even if they had been around, but the day was dragging anyways. Now we have something new to discuss, and hopefully with active people.

As the day opened on Friday, I would request that the mod

Prod: Pika


as we can't have proper discussion without everybody here. Clearly two of you are scum and I want to try to find either of you today so that we have a better chance at winning.
RAWR!
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:43 am

Post by edmund.angles »

@Truant
Truant wrote: I looked through BEK/Mevorra and I saw no tells of a cop so I knew they couldn't be that.
You seem to think very highly of your(or anyone's) ability to tell by people's tells. Couldn't he just have not put out any tells?

I agree btw, we have to have everyone participating in the discussion before any voting.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 5:18 am

Post by pikapizza »

i was surprised when the day ended before i even had a chance to argue. i would have liked more time to ask Truant questions on D2, but his highly suspect quickhammer, and a reread, has convinced me that he's almost certainly scum.

:!:
Truant

James.Denholm, Truant's predecessor:
:arrow: blatantly rolefished
:arrow: tried to stay friends with everyone and did not place a vote
:arrow: laid low and did not scumhunt

as for Truant himself:
his motivations behind the xBEKx quickhammer are suspect. upon re-examining his posts, here were his reasons for voting xBEKx/Mevorra.
Truant wrote:Townies don't *know* the alignment of people until they flip, so they can't plan ahead, but out of necessity need to go from day to day so changing opinions as they progress is natural. To feel the need to explain something that isn't scummy shows a self-awareness that I definitely find disconcerting.
1) Mevorra pre-emptively explains that he may frequently change his mind.
Truant wrote:Major suspicion continues on Mevorra/xBEKx for being on 3 of the major wagons yesterday....
2) vote analysis: Mevorra was on all of the major wagons.
Truant wrote:I reread Mevorra, and then looked over Belili and I'm almost certain that they're partners together. With the weird vote/unvote interactions both D1 and D2, it just looks too coordinated to really be townie on townie while looking very much like scum and scum.
3) he interacted strangely with Belili.

****

however, note that he admits that there is much more "wiggle room" for scum not to be on the wagons and that vote analysis is much weaker using this ruleset.
Truant wrote:[Gettng a lynch without a majority vote] hurts vote analysis, but it doesn't wipe it out completely. Yes, it's now harder, but it doesn't mean it can't be done at all.
despite that, he's very certain of himself:
Truant wrote:I thought that there was no way in hell that BEK was a townie.
am i meant to believe that despite the fact that he realises that vote analysis is not an effective way of hunting scum (so point 2 is weak from his perspective), he QUICKHAMMERS xBEKx/Mevorra for merely:
:arrow: stating that he may change his mind often
:arrow: interacting strangely with Belili
.....um......

this is also a far cry from his cautious attitude before:
Truant wrote:In the case of you not being scum, this would allow scum to quick hammer you cutting off discussion, while leaving them a free door to another NK and lylo. Yes, this would allow the hammerer to come under serious suspicion and probably lynched, that'd still look like a shorter day with less to really go on to look for a partner if the hammerer was scum.
when the wagon shows signs of dying down and the focus begins to turn towards him, he's suddenly certain enough to lynch xBEKx two weeks before deadline ???

to conclude:
:arrow:
James.Denholm's suspicious behaviour D1.

:arrow:
Truant's quickhammering 2 weeks before deadline for extremely weak reasons.

:arrow:
an inconsistent attitude towards hammering that coincides with the increasing focus on him (as opposed to xBEKx)


i do not believe that Truant's actions are town-motivated at all. i am open to questions, if there is no further discussion, i am quite ready to place a vote.

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