Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Raivann]

Raivann, you haven't given us much to work with so far. What do you think of the wagon on you right now? Do you think that you're likely to be the chosen? If you're town who do you think is scum other than apparently Herodotus?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

It's hard to defend myself against the wagon because it's mainly based on Nuwen being a strong player.
It would depend on who the scum decided to exclude.

[Zorblag]

Raivann, what about the third question there? Who do you think is likely scum at this time?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[TDC]

TDC, in that case, what are your thoughts about MiteyMouse as potential scum or the chosen at this point?

Both possible as far as I'm concerned. I don't really have a read on her, though.

As far as 2:7 mountainous goes, that's worse than F11 (the current newbie setup), and scum win that one pretty often.

[TDC]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

@Mod: Could you clarify this? Are the scum potential targets for the random lynch?

Either way, I think it should be avoided, but knowing is better than not knowing.

concerned?

Can. You. Answer. My. Question.

[BloodCovenent]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

@Mod: Could you clarify this? Are the scum potential targets for the random lynch?

Either way, I think it should be avoided, but knowing is better than not knowing.

concerned?

Can. You. Answer. My. Question.

Where? the last question that I could find, was like page 6, and I answered it. Links please.

[BloodCovenent]

TDC, in that case, what are your thoughts about MiteyMouse as potential scum or the chosen at this point?

Both possible as far as I'm concerned. I don't really have a read on her, though.

As far as 2:7 mountainous goes, that's worse than F11 (the current newbie setup), and scum win that one pretty often.

not true, my first game, i was scum, 2:7 set-up. Town win.

[Zorblag]

BloodCovenent, one example of town winning a 7:2 game doesn't show that town is more likely to win that setup. Further, the F11 setup is not the same as a mountainous setup even if it doesn't have power roles. The scum interactions the first couple days before they determine that there are no power roles are different than they would be if they knew that there were no power roles from the start. The F11 setup with no town power roles is actually slightly better for the town given the lack of information on the scum's part than a pure mountainous game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[TDC]

Mighty Mouse : Joined: 18 Sep 2008
Nadroj15 : Joined: 25 Apr 2009
afatchick : Joined: 04 Aug 2008

Meant to write AfatChick Accidentally deleted the wrong one when I copied the list from post number 1.

How do I fit into that picture? My join date predates any of the three, yet my result is the same as nadroj's.

Not sure, was just going down the list, didn't really research anyone's games or anything. I've heard that you were a relatively pro-town player. I'd rather have players in the keep category that were known to be clumsy and make mistakes, or ones that i have no knowledge about.

This is still making no sense, because you put me in the keep category.
Based on what you've just said (and the earlier join date argument) I should've been in other.
I'm not really sure what your motiviation would be to mislabel me, but still.

This is still bugging me, and I don't think you've replied to it.

[BloodCovenent]

I'm not sure what to say to TDC, it was either a mistake on my part, or I was posting the list on a rather late night (which isn't unusual). What was probably was the case, i just created my list on what knowledge I had previously, and made decisions based on that, and by the time that I got to your name, i just kept you in the keep category. It was such a long time ago, i don't think that I really remember what was going through my head at that time.

[TDC]

What I don't like about this answer (besides that it took so long to get it) is that you don't want to actually change your list, despite it being obvious it's wrong.

Whom will you exchange me with?

[BloodCovenent]

Well, if I could change it now, after these 12 pages of gameplay, i would exchange you with Mighty mouse, because I find her play very bad. and what appeared to be in conjunction with someone else's meta of MM. If I had to change it back then, it would still be either MM, or Clock Work Ruse.

[Special Ed]

I'm having difficulty. Sometimes when I hit quote, it takes me back to the forum main page. Sometimes I actually get to post.

Is Big Bear a sock for Blood Covenant?

[Special Ed]

Basically everyone has selected the above three, so I really don't see how this could've happened if it didn't make sense.

Could the Scum have listed their choices and gone near the end?

This is when a randomly generated list is a good idea, to set an order to declare something.

[Special Ed]

Basically everyone has selected the above three, so I really don't see how this could've happened if it didn't make sense.

Could the Scum have listed their choices and gone near the end?

This is when a randomly generated list is a good idea, to set an order to declare something.

NETA, and by going near the end, tried to blend in with everyone else.

[Special Ed]

We've got a deadline now. It's a week away so there's plenty of time left. I think it should be clear to everyone that it's better for us to lynch someone before we reach it but just in case, here's the reason. If we can be pretty sure we won't hit the chosen today then any lynch we choose is better than a random lynch which we know won't hit scum but might be the chosen one. If things go well then we'll hit scum but even if we're wrong we're in better shape with the information from the votes than we would be otherwise.

Troll, you're starting to worry me a bit.

If you remove the Chosen mechanic from the equation, this game becomes a standard 7 vanilla vs. 2 vanilla scum setup. All the Chosen does is remove a couple of mafia win conditions, i.e. 2 scum vs. Chosen or 1 scum vs. Chosen.

For some reason you seem to be subtly pushing the idea that a Chosen lynch would be extremely detrimental to the town. This is simply not true; it just turns the game into a standard one. Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

Getting back to my worry - you've spent an inordinate amount of time looking at mechanics and not scumhunting. I agree there's value in the Chosen lists that we generated, but I think there's less value there than if we were playing as if the Chosen mechanic didn't exist. Which, incidentally, is what I would propose we do so that this doesn't turn into more of a distraction than it already has.

Ignoring the Chosen issue entirely, can you please give a list of who you feel are most scummy at the moment? TIA.

catching up, but is the random lynch drawn from Townies only So it has a 1.7 chance of hitting Chosen and 0 chance of hitting Scum. I apologize if this point has been raised already.

I assume this board has a multiquote function. I should try to figure it out.

[Special Ed]

If you mean what scum tells I've gotten including the possibility of the chosen my list would be Riavann (Nuwen), AshMC1984 (though not particularly Special Ed) and afatchic.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

HOw could Ash be Scum or Chosen but I'm less so?

[MiteyMouse]

I'm a bit tipsy right now so I'm appologizing in advance.

With Hohum confirming that the Scum cannot talk during the Day and Zorblag replacing in, the few messages that I saw about Herodotus with Papa and Zorblag don't look good to me. I have to think about this some more. I don't think that the messages were to confirm bussing but, something else. I'm watching you boys...

Papa...I was thinking on your post about having the Choosen on die and this just turning into a regular Mafia game. From reading the PMs at the start of the game thread, killing the Choosen is one of the /winCons of the Scum. Do you really think that it's not important to keep them alive?

[Herodotus]

concerned?

sniping?

I expect that if the mod confirms that the scum are immune, it will light a fire under anyone who is town-sided.

[Herodotus]

(which is not to say that anyone should hammer immediately.)

[Papa Zito]

Papa...I was thinking on your post about having the Choosen on die and this just turning into a regular Mafia game. From reading the PMs at the start of the game thread, killing the Choosen is one of the /winCons of the Scum. Do you really think that it's not important to keep them alive?

I put "Keep the Chosen Alive" below "Lynch Scum" on my priority list.

Papa Zito's Priority List

1. Lynch Scum
2. Keep Chosen Alive
3. Keep Self Alive

See?

I'm worried about Zorblag putting so much emphasis on #2 and not enough on #1. A couple people have mentioned it and I'm starting to agree, this is starting to look like a distraction.

[Zorblag]

If you mean what scum tells I've gotten including the possibility of the chosen my list would be Riavann (Nuwen), AshMC1984 (though not particularly Special Ed) and afatchic.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

HOw could Ash be Scum or Chosen but I'm less so?

AshMC1984 was doing things that struck me as potential scum tells. I haven't seen you give off scum tells in particular. With Nuwen and Raivann I find both of their actions troubling. If AshMC1984 was either the chosen or scum then you are as well but that doesn't mean that the two of you have given similar tells.

With Hohum confirming that the Scum cannot talk during the Day and Zorblag replacing in, the few messages that I saw about Herodotus with Papa and Zorblag don't look good to me. I have to think about this some more. I don't think that the messages were to confirm bussing but, something else. I'm watching you boys...

It's fine with me if you're watching us. It doesn't look like I'm going to convince you that the message idea doesn't make sense so I'll stop trying but I do want to make sure that you're also paying attention to what others are doing in the game. What else has happened thus far that seems suspicious to you?

I put "Keep the Chosen Alive" below "Lynch Scum" on my priority list.

Papa Zito's Priority List

1. Lynch Scum
2. Keep Chosen Alive
3. Keep Self Alive

See?

I'm worried about Zorblag putting so much emphasis on #2 and not enough on #1. A couple people have mentioned it and I'm starting to agree, this is starting to look like a distraction.

The goal here is to win the game. On that priority list I can win the game if we accomplish either 1 or 2. We can win if we lynch all the scum whether or not we keep the chosen alive. We can win if we keep the chosen alive whether or not we lynch the scum. We can win if we both lynch the scum and keep the chosen alive. I don't care at all which of the three routes we end up taking as long as it's one of them.

Other than the work that I'm doing and the responses to it that others are giving I don't see that much effort from others to keep the chosen alive so I'm going to keep at that. It should be easier day one to make sure we don't lynch the chosen than it is to make sure that we lynch scum; I'd love to do both but I'm not overly concerned if we don't as long as we don't get it wrong and take out the chosen right at the start.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Boy did it get quiet around here.

Raivann, I'm still waiting for a Herodotus case.

Call me old-fashioned Troll, but I think we have a better shot at this game going about it the regular way. The whole Chosen thing is like the bubblegum ball at the bottom of an ice-cream cone. You don't buy the cone for the gum, the gum is just an extra added surprise.

Also, someday in one of our games Mitey is actually going to think I'm town and the world will end.

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, I do think that you're being old fashioned here, to a point that means that you're not trying to use the optimal strategy in the game. I also think that a tendency many players have is to assume that the standard operating procedures are the best way to go in most games even if there's extra information to be gleaned in the game dynamic that would indicate otherwise. An example from personal experience would be Open 111 (in New York) where people had very negative reactions to my suggestion of a partial claim early in the day to take advantage of what we knew about the distribution of roles. The arguments people gave then mostly boiled down to the idea that asking people to claim early in a game is normally a bad idea and so it must have been in that situation as well. Given that I'm not finding your reluctance to adapt to the game situation to be a particular scum tell but I do hope you'll get over it as the benefits we get in this game should even more apparent than the ones from the change from standard play I was pushing in Open 111.

The ice cream and bubble gum analogy isn't particularly appropriate. The chosen one mechanic is intrinsically part of this game from the get go, not just some sort of extra feature that we'll get at the very end. The scum have to take the chosen into account while they play the game if only because eventually they have to make sure the chosen gets lynched. That extra information about the scum's motivation from play is something that we can use down the road to help catch them. We do that by making sure we're all aware of the chosen and not lynching them early in the game. We don't stop trying to find scum, but we also don't blindly do things in this game which has a dramatically non-standard dynamic just because that's the way we usually do things.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[BloodCovenent]

I'll re-read the case against Rai, but my top suspect is still MM.

[Raivann]

My home computer is down , postin from work- will post w/content shortly sorry y'all.