Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Zorblag]

With the new rule that lynches are mandatory I'm not quite sure how a non-majority at deadline (which is up to the mod's discretion) would be dealt with. I expect that if we do get a deadline imposed rules will be given. As for your vote being meaningless if it's not for Raivann, I disagree. If you vote for someone other than him it will be something we can look at in future days. Further, if you make any sort of case you might sway other voters beyond yourself.

My history here can be found by looking at my wiki entry (there's a button linking to it at the bottom of this post.) I've played in 11 completed games and two abandoned games with this and one other that are still ongoing. I've played about 9 games elsewhere online and a fair number live. Here day one varies a fair amount. A good portion of my experience here actually involves replacing into games past day one. Given that, I'd say that day one often results in scum-bait getting lynched rather than scum. I'm not sure what you're looking for in particular but I'd be happy to answer more particular questions if you've got them.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

I've played in a lot of games. Probably way more then my skill level would indicate. Here's my Wiki... http://www.mafiagameswiki.com/mafiaWiki/MiteyMouse

[MiteyMouse]

Happy ScumDay Hohum!

[hohum]

Been lots of discussion about deadlines. To clear a few things up if I do decide to set a deadline and that deadline comes and goes I will lynch one of the living townies at random. The random pool of townies will include the chosen one.

It's been

>3

>2 weeks since day 1 began so I am pretty close to setting a deadline. When I do set one it will be 7 days. Just be forewarned.

[Special Ed]

OK, so we might get a deadline and a very quick one at that. And the consequence doesn't look very good.

I know I might seem pushy, but I'd be happy if ya'll would humor me. Does anyone want to summarize the cases against those who have votes?

[TDC]

It looks like Special Ed and TDC are the only ones who aren't voting at this time according to the last vote count. TDC just unvoted; I wonder who his top suspect is at the moment and why he's not voting.

I wouldn't mind a Raivann lynch. I agree that he's the best lynch of those that are really unlikely to be the Chosen.

Would still like to hear from BloodCovenent before we end the day, though.
I do realize that he's in a bit of an gray area with you and afatchic in regards of whether he could or could not be the Chosen.

I wasn't voting because I didn't know whether it'd be the hammer and I didn't want to end the day just yet.

vote: Raivann

.

First describing your experience with Mafia on this site and i total, as well as some general impressions on how Day 1 usually goes here.

You can look up all my games in my wiki, too.

Mod: With lynches now mandatory, are night kills mandatory, too? Seems unfair if they aren't.

[Papa Zito]

What I would like, at this point, if it's not too much trouble, is a couple of sentences from everyone. First describing your experience with Mafia on this site and i total, as well as some general impressions on how Day 1 usually goes here.

My entire Mafia experience is this site. And I'm a relative newbie to the game. My games and their links are listed on my wiki page if you'd care to look.

From what I've seen, games here generally begin with a "random voting stage" (RVS) where people vote one another for bogus jokey reasons. At some point somebody seizes on some tiny minuscule thing, and then people begin to banter back and forth, etc.

[Herodotus]

What I would like, at this point, if it's not too much trouble, is a couple of sentences from everyone. First describing your experience with Mafia on this site and i total, as well as some general impressions on how Day 1 usually goes here.

I've played one real-world game. On this site I have played about 9 "marathon" (quick) games, two completed full games, and a couple games that are in progress.

Day 1 usually starts with random voting, then a disagreement about theory. The rest of the day is spent making generally minor cases. Everyone wants to test everyone else -- townies want to test others' alignments, and scum want to test who the easier mislynches are. It can be hard to form a lynch wagon because there isn't a lot of information, which makes agreement difficult. As a result, the scum seem to often find it easy to avoid being lynched. The day 1 lynch is often less likely than random to hit scum, due to influence from the scum, but because motivations for votes can be analyzed, it helps on future days.

I have seen a tendency for day 1's in particular to extend all the way to the deadline -- from what I've understood, this is a recent trend.

[hohum]

Deadline is set for Midnight PDT on Thursday, July 30th, 2009.

[BloodCovenent]

I agree with both of the players above. Day one is generally the same.

[Zorblag]

We've got a deadline now. It's a week away so there's plenty of time left. I think it should be clear to everyone that it's better for us to lynch someone before we reach it but just in case, here's the reason. If we can be pretty sure we won't hit the chosen today then any lynch we choose is better than a random lynch which we know won't hit scum but might be the chosen one. If things go well then we'll hit scum but even if we're wrong we're in better shape with the information from the votes than we would be otherwise.

I don't want a quick lynch of Raivann now; if anyone is thinking of hammering please give some warning as I've got a thought about the game mechanics that I want to share as close to the end of the day as possible (so that the scum have less time to use it) that is probably obvious but which I want to be sure everyone hears going into the rest of the game.

BloodCovenent, I think I could guess why your vote is for MiteyMouse right now based on what you've said but I wonder if you could give a condensed version of your current reasons. She's probably my second choice after Raivann right now though for me that's not because I think she's particularly scummy so far this game (her play meets my expectations of play from her as either town or scum) but more because I think that she's a safe (i.e. almost certainly non-chosen) lynch and I don't have any reason to think that she's town just now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, I've got some reason to think that you're about now and looking at things. You've said that you're happy with your Papa Zito vote for now. Does that take into account his chances of being the chosen or is it just based on the cuddling that you think he's been doing with Herodotus? Is it something else altogether? Do my answers to your questions about how to use the information about who people would have excluded as the chosen seem reasonable to you?

TDC, I like the attention to detail that you're showing with the game rules. I'm a bit nervous that you might be taking what I'm coming up with about who might be the chosen too readily without making sure that it makes sense (I'm doing my best with it but I could be wrong.) How much is the concern that scum would try to game the lists I'm composing enter into your assessments? Right now who would you say on your own are the least likely to be the chosen (apparently Raivann makes that list based on your vote.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[BigBear]

This. and This.

Basically, I felt as if MM has played the entire with no actual involvement. She has slipped through without much suspicion, giving us little to actually work with. She basically just gave us IIOA, which isn't that good. With little improvement after being pressured, it just feels weak. Whether we lynch scum or not, we at least get rid of (what to me looks like) an anti-town player.

[afatchic]

This. and This.

Basically, I felt as if MM has played the entire with no actual involvement. She has slipped through without much suspicion, giving us little to actually work with. She basically just gave us IIOA, which isn't that good. With little improvement after being pressured, it just feels weak. Whether we lynch scum or not, we at least get rid of (what to me looks like) an anti-town player.

And you are.....?


Anyways, sorry for my lack of content. I have a chem. test friday that i will be spending most of my free time studying for. I have been able to stay pretty well caught up, but not really having enough time to analyze and make a decent post. I should be able to put one together this weekend though.

[Zorblag]

From context I assume that BigBear is BloodCovenent? Like I said earlier I think that MiteyMouse is playing the sort of game that I'd expect her to as either town or scum based on previous experience with her. I agree that she hasn't done much to help us figure out what's happening but I do appreciate her comments on me even though they're off base. My hope is that she'll take a look at others with the same sort of attention to little details. For now I'm keeping her as neutral in terms of my read.

afatchic, I look forward to your thoughts this weekend then. School (or RL in general) clearly comes before the game. I'm interested in hearing why you're voting for BloodCovenent now given that the read that you gave on him in your PBPA was neutral. Is he scummy enough for you to be sure that he isn't the chosen at this time?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[BloodCovenent]

Damn.. how did that Happen. Yea, I am. Sorry about that.

[afatchic]

afatchic, I look forward to your thoughts this weekend then. School (or RL in general) clearly comes before the game. I'm interested in hearing why you're voting for BloodCovenent now given that the read that you gave on him in your PBPA was neutral. Is he scummy enough for you to be sure that he isn't the chosen at this time?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Yeah that was from earlier in the game, i guess i never unvoted. I was actually going to switch votes, but didn't have time to make a case or anything, so i figured i'd wait.

It's coming though....

[TDC]

Right now who would you say on your own are the least likely to be the chosen (apparently Raivann makes that list based on your vote.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

PapaZito, me, Raivann. If any of us three is the Chosen, the scum have either purposely reverse-selected or not made any effort at all to steer who the Chosen was going to be.
I had put BloodCovenant above Raivann, but I appear to be pretty alone on that.

--

BloodCovenent: Why are you ignoring my question?

[TDC]

Basically everyone has selected the above three, so I really don't see how this could've happened if it didn't make sense.

[Zorblag]

TDC, in that case, what are your thoughts about MiteyMouse as potential scum or the chosen at this point?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Raivann, you haven't given us much to work with so far. What do you think of the wagon on you right now? Do you think that you're likely to be the chosen? If you're town who do you think is scum other than apparently Herodotus?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

We've got a deadline now. It's a week away so there's plenty of time left. I think it should be clear to everyone that it's better for us to lynch someone before we reach it but just in case, here's the reason. If we can be pretty sure we won't hit the chosen today then any lynch we choose is better than a random lynch which we know won't hit scum but might be the chosen one. If things go well then we'll hit scum but even if we're wrong we're in better shape with the information from the votes than we would be otherwise.

Troll, you're starting to worry me a bit.

If you remove the Chosen mechanic from the equation, this game becomes a standard 7 vanilla vs. 2 vanilla scum setup. All the Chosen does is remove a couple of mafia win conditions, i.e. 2 scum vs. Chosen or 1 scum vs. Chosen.

For some reason you seem to be subtly pushing the idea that a Chosen lynch would be extremely detrimental to the town. This is simply not true; it just turns the game into a standard one. Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

Getting back to my worry - you've spent an inordinate amount of time looking at mechanics and not scumhunting. I agree there's value in the Chosen lists that we generated, but I think there's less value there than if we were playing as if the Chosen mechanic didn't exist. Which, incidentally, is what I would propose we do so that this doesn't turn into more of a distraction than it already has.

Ignoring the Chosen issue entirely, can you please give a list of who you feel are most scummy at the moment? TIA.

[Herodotus]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

@Mod: Could you clarify this? Are the scum potential targets for the random lynch?

Either way, I think it should be avoided, but knowing is better than not knowing.

[BloodCovenent]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

@Mod: Could you clarify this? Are the scum potential targets for the random lynch?

Either way, I think it should be avoided, but knowing is better than not knowing.

concerned?

[Zorblag]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

No, I'm not using scare tactics, just my ability to read. The random lynch I'm talking about would be the random kill resulting from our not lynching. By the rules the moderator posted:

Been lots of discussion about deadlines. To clear a few things up if I do decide to set a deadline and that deadline comes and goes I will lynch one of the living townies at random. The random pool of townies will include the chosen one.

If we don't lynch then a townie will die at random and it might be the chosen. Unless I read that wrong there's no chance that scum would get killed in that situation.

Lynching the chosen takes away guaranteed town win if we ever do it. It's strongly in our interest to make sure that we don't lynch the chosen the first day. I think that is more important than trying to make sure that we lynch scum on day one as finding scum is inherently harder at this point than avoiding lynching the chosen. If you disagree I'm happy to discuss it with you. If the chosen gets lynched we're down to a mountainous game and the limited sample of mountainous games this size or smaller here on MS don't indicate that this favors town at all. With the chosen still in the game we've got a serious advantage. I aim to keep that if it's at all possible.

Ignoring the Chosen issue entirely, can you please give a list of who you feel are most scummy at the moment? TIA.

Sorry, I can't do that. My scum reads right now in this game all involve the chosen one as it's an integral part of the game. I'm not willing to ignore a major part of the game when deciding who is likely to be scum.

If you mean what scum tells I've gotten including the possibility of the chosen my list would be Riavann (Nuwen), AshMC1984 (though not particularly Special Ed) and afatchic.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh