Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[roflcopter]

living players:

Achilles - ??? uberlurker, more research needed
Lowell - leaning town, more research needed
curiouskarmadog - town
Kmd4390 -

scum

Xylthixlm -

scum

Faraday - town
Hayker - town (mason)
Kublai Khan - town (miller)
Namttam - most likely candidate for

cerulean scum

molestargazer - likely town (neighbor)
SerialClergyman - leaning town, more research needed
roflcopter - town
Wickedestjr - town (mason)

if there is a 4th neighbor, now would actually be a great time for that person to come forward and confirm mole's story.

[SerialClergyman]

rofl - I had a look at the selective scumhunting and found it to be an exact description of your play...

players who focus on a specific scum faction or factions in a game with multiple known scum factions are likely to be scum themselves

or 2) a player all-but-ignores a specific scum faction or factions when scumhunting. Case 1) is a weak tell, Case 2) is fairly strong.

As poster boy for the 'lets focus on one scum group' philosophy, how does this not apply to yourself even more?

I agree to a degree about Xyl, but the points that get me more than the emoticon defence or selective scumhunting are the logical issues, especially the logic that went 'Namttam is scummy with Mastin therefore he's Vermillion scum' - 'Mastin wasn't Vermillion' - 'Yeah but if Wicked is Cerulean, Namttam must be Vermillon'. That whole logical progression was rubbish.

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #43=-

Xylthixlm (4) - roflcopter, Wickedestjr, Lowell, curiouskarmadog
Namttam (2) - SerialClergyman, Kmd4390
Hayker (1) - molestargazer
molestargazer (1) - Hayker

Not Voting (5) - Achilles, Namttam, Kublai Khan, Xylthixlm, Faraday

7 to lynch.

[roflcopter]

As poster boy for the 'lets focus on one scum group' philosophy, how does this not apply to yourself even more?

i've explained already why its my opinion that we should be focusing on lynching vermillion instead of cerulean today, for strategic reasons. and i've also been completely transparent about who i think is cerulean (nam) even though i'm not currently trying to lynch that player. compare my play with xyl's. so far his only positions on who is vermillion have been a) namtamm bc wicked is cerulean and b) i'm too stupid to figure it out.

[molestargazer]

In short, about the claims - I think it's possible we have 2x neighbors and 1x masons but I suspect one of the neighbors to have scum in the pair. If we get a claim from the remaining neighbor - that doesn't help scum, but it will confirm there being 2 sets and we can then have a look and see if one of the remaining neighbors look particularly scummy.

The other neighbour may be scum. Which means they probably won't claim just to drop me in the soup.

Is reward greater than risk if we lynch one of the claimed masons today? If they flip scum, we've got another caught right away. If they flip mason, the most we do is confirm the other.

If I had thought it wasn't worth it, I wouldn't have claimed.

2 pairs of unconfirmed neighbours + 2 masons aren't that impossible are they?

I frankly believe it very unlikely with the amount of powerroles we have / had as well.

[roflcopter]

the more i look at it, the more ridiculous that suggestion to testlynch a mason becomes.

[SerialClergyman]

rofl - I agree totally with everything you posted but I don't feel it answers the question.

The scumtell you pointed us to says that people who focus on one group exclusively are likely to be scum.

You have made no secret that you are focusing on one group exclusively.

Why should I not think you scummy based on the tell you yourself are using?

[Namttam]

]Incredibly useful mason claim since it just eliminated two players I was suspicious of.

Ok, Xyl fits as either I think. I still say he could have bussed as his vote was relatively late and Mastin was pretty much going to be lynched. Also, I'm removing Wicked. He's a mason with Hayker.

Vote Nam

Wait what? Please explain.

Wicked claimed mason. I believe the claim, so I move to my next suspicion.

I was actually looking for some reasoning behind your vote.

@SC-Do you really think rolf is Cerulean?

Rolf's case on xyl is a very good one. I look forward to xyl's response. (I got the day off from work so I'll check back tonight.)

[roflcopter]

you're misunderstanding the application of this scumtell, i think. its useful when someone is avoiding the topic of one particular scumteam altogether (as xyl is). yes, i am focusing on

lynching

a member of one group exclusively

today

, but i am not focusing on that one group exclusively, and i have explained the strategic benefit to the town of lynching the group i am intent on lynching today.

additionally, in this instance, since i am focussed on lynching red scum today, if selective scumhunting were to be applied to me i would have to be blue scum, which would mean that i would have been bussing mastin from day one, despite the fact that a blue scum had already died night zero. i don't want to beat a dead horse over how outlandish that theory was.

[Xylthixlm]

if there is a 4th neighbor, now would actually be a great time for that person to come forward and confirm mole's story.

QFT

[SerialClergyman]

Ah, fair enough. I take your point(s).

I'm not sure I agree with you about the strategic consequences, certianly that it's not cut and dried. If we assume there's only 1 blue scum to go, then that's 1 less night kill if we lynch him, and that's therefore more lynches we get to make. As I said earlier, I'd prefer to have more chances to lynch scum than hoping that the scum cross kill each other.

What do you think about the neighbor issue? Do you think there's a liklihood of scum within the 2 neighbor pairings (provided there are 2)?

[Kublai Khan]

I missed a lot. Did hayker claim mason?

Oh, I'm sorry, did the game wake you?

As poster boy for the 'lets focus on one scum group' philosophy, how does this not apply to yourself even more?

i've explained already why its my opinion that we should be focusing on lynching vermillion instead of cerulean today, for strategic reasons. and i've also been completely transparent about who i think is cerulean (nam) even though i'm not currently trying to lynch that player. compare my play with xyl's. so far his only positions on who is vermillion have been a) namtamm bc wicked is cerulean and b) i'm too stupid to figure it out.

Has your theory of "scum will cross-kill each other" changed in light of confirmed masons coming to light?

I think the posibility of mole lying is pretty much zero.

WTF? I might believe his neighbor claim if a 4th neighbor came out of the woodworks, but to take it at face value? No way.

for example, i find xyl extremely scummy (see above), but i find it to be very unlikely that he would have bussed mastin.

I'm sorry, but why do you feel that Mastin's scummates woudn't have bussed him?

living players:

Achilles - ??? uberlurker, more research needed
Lowell - leaning town, more research needed

curiouskarmadog - town

Kmd4390 - scum
Xylthixlm - scum

Faraday - town

Hayker - town (mason)
Kublai Khan - town (miller)
Namttam - most likely candidate for cerulean scum
molestargazer - likely town (neighbor)
SerialClergyman - leaning town, more research needed

roflcopter - town

Wickedestjr - town (mason)

I'd like to point out that none of these three are confirmed town by a long shot. I understand you've got your whole "scum will target town-confirmed people" strategy going, but what's stopping you from being Vermillion and pushing your scumbuddies as confirmed? Or being Cerulean and buddying up to people to try to sway their votes?

Lurking on Day 1, then heavily trying to direct the town on Days 2 & 3 by using put-downs isn't a pro-town strategy.

additionally, in this instance, since i am focussed on lynching red scum today, if selective scumhunting were to be applied to me i would have to be blue scum, which would mean that i would have been bussing mastin from day one, despite the fact that a blue scum had already died night zero. i don't want to beat a dead horse over how outlandish that theory was.

It's also much harder to find the Vermillion scum because we only know of 1 of them (who died Night 1), so hunting exclusively for them means that we're more likely to mislynch another townie.

[roflcopter]

if there is a 4th neighbor, now would actually be a great time for that person to come forward and confirm mole's story.

QFT

is that really all you saw fit to respond to?

[roflcopter]

kublai khan and his case of confirmation bias are no longer being responded to.

[Xylthixlm]

roflcopter- given that my scumhunting style is mostly based on behavioral tells rather than partnering tells, why do you think I would have

any

ability to figure out what scumteam someone belongs to before lynching them? Based on historical data you'd be better off flipping a coin than asking me.

[Kublai Khan]

kublai khan and his case of confirmation bias are no longer being responded to.

Did that pot just call me black?

[roflcopter]

lynch xyl now kthx

[Xylthixlm]

lynch xyl now kthx

No seriously, explain why you think this is inconsistent with my town play.

[roflcopter]

kublai khan and his case of confirmation bias are no longer being responded to.

Did that pot just call me black?

despite that fact that its already been discussed and laid to rest by everyone else interested in discussing the possibility, you continue to be hyperfocused on interpreting everything i say as meaning i am cerulean mafia.

apparently your secondary focus is on undermining any town read that isn't based on a roleclaim.

so yeah, i'm ignoring you because everything you're doing is actively hurting the town.

[roflcopter]

lynch xyl now kthx

No seriously, explain why you think this is inconsistent with my town play.

not necessary. i've already laid out what makes you scum. you have presented no rebuttal, so i don't need to prove any further how this is inconsistent with your play as town.

[Xylthixlm]

lynch xyl now kthx

No seriously, explain why you think this is inconsistent with my town play.

not necessary. i've already laid out what makes you scum. you have presented no rebuttal, so i don't need to prove any further how this is inconsistent with your play as town.

You've explained why you think my play makes sense with me as scum, but you haven't explained why you don't think it makes sense with me as town. If my play is what I would do in either case, it isn't a scumtell and you know it.

[roflcopter]

you continue to

not respond to my case

.

you are trying to flip the burden of proof back to me, but i have already done my part. now i leave it to the rest of the cast to decide.

[Xylthixlm]

Your case is bullshit because you aren't even considering the possibility that I might be town as an option.

There, I responded to your case.

[SerialClergyman]

WTF? I might believe his neighbor claim if a 4th neighbor came out of the woodworks, but to take it at face value? No way.

You have to admit that claiming a role that doesn't even prevent him from being scum completely out of the blue is pretty inexplicable. I tend to believe him just because I can't imagine why he would have fakeclaimed at that time.

I'd like to point out that none of these three are confirmed town by a long shot. I understand you've got your whole "scum will target town-confirmed people" strategy going, but what's stopping you from being Vermillion and pushing your scumbuddies as confirmed? Or being Cerulean and buddying up to people to try to sway their votes?

I don't understand this at all. Perhaps it's just me being thick, but why can't rofl just be posting his scummiest -> towniest list? Obviously if he's scum he's be lying..? And it's not like any of the people he calls scum are 'confirmed'...

Xyl - there's actually a lot more than you're giving credit for, I think. What about the logical inconsistency in your view of the namttam case?

[Xylthixlm]

I agree to a degree about Xyl, but the points that get me more than the emoticon defence or selective scumhunting are the logical issues, especially the logic that went 'Namttam is scummy with Mastin therefore he's Vermillion scum' - 'Mastin wasn't Vermillion' - 'Yeah but if Wicked is Cerulean, Namttam must be Vermillon'. That whole logical progression was rubbish.

I am guilty of not actually caring which scumteam people I find scummy are on. I answered the question based on the first thing that popped into my mind when roflcopter asked.