Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

I think Ash inherently is more likely to be the chosen if he's town than Raivann/Nuwen if she's town. But Ash is also scummier.

[Zorblag]

That's essentially what I expected you to say.

Right now I'm pretty sure that Herodotus is town based on what he said to the mod in post 164. That's great as he's replacing Archon who I think was likely to be a potential chosen. I strongly recommend against lynching Herodotus at any point.

I do think that AshMC1984 is potentially the chosen one so I'm not at all interested in lynching him today. I think that Nuwen was unlikely to be excluded from being the chosen one as she is a strong player in general and isn't all that likely to be lynched as town.

I gave some weak reasons that I would have considered for voting for Nuwen earlier. Given that any lynch of a non-chosen one is a reasonable move in this game, that someone I think is town finds Raivann suspicious, and that I found Nuwen's play slightly scummy earlier I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Raivann

I hadn't said it before, but my list of players to exclude from being the chosen one (and hence those that I think are least likely to have that role now) would be MiteyMouse, Nuwen, Papa Zito and TDC. Nuwen, TDC and Papa Zito all impress me with the towniness of their play in general and I think that MiteyMouse often comes across as fairly townish no matter what her role is. My fifth choice would be BloodCovenent as he's not been lynched in any games that I can find as a pro-town player in the early stages of a game. I think that the scum would have gone for lynchability over anything else when making their choices. afatchic is more lynchable in what I've seen than any of the five players that I listed. Archon was scum bait. AshMC1984 plays reasonably in the games that I've seen but he does get lynched. nadroj15 had no record to speak of so he would rank behind the other five in my list.

Of MiteyMouse, Papa Zito, Raivann and TDC Raivann currently seems like the best lynch to me.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[afatchic]

Wow, the posting explosion was unexpected to say the least. Sorry i have been absent pretty much for the past few days, my summer classes are kicking my butt right now though.

Anyways, I guess i will start to comment on whatever comes to mind first.

The no-lynch idea... How would that be auto-win for town? I realize No-lynch is out of the question, but how is that auto win? I still think that would be a bad idea, as the scum would most likely just NK anyone we had pretty much confirmed, so it wouldn't help us to much, IMO. Glad that is gone though, as i can't stand trying to break setups. People tried to attempt that on the game i modded, and it nearly backfired.

So i guess i will give a general breakdown of everyone...

Zorblag- Town. I have very little doubt in my mind that he is town. He may just be an outstanding player, but i believe him to be town. It would be hard for me to vote for him if he claimed scum.

Herotodus- Just been in the game briefly, but from what i have seen he seems pro-town. His comments and posts have all seemed genuine rather than an attempt to appear like a townie. I also think Archon would have def. been one of the remaining players to be the chosen, so this could work out pretty good for us.

BloodCovenant- Neutral. I haven't seen a whole lot of content from him that i recall. What i have seen didn't appear scummy to me, however it didn't have me telling myself he was guaranteed townie either. I would say he seems to be genuinely helping, with is +townie points.

Ash- Neutral. Nothing sticks out in my mind about him, so i can't really make a decision one way or the other. I guess i will have to look back through and make a better decision.

MM- V/La- Not a whole lot to go on.

Raivann- Not much to go on either, Neutral.

Papa Zito- Town/Neutral- He seemed to respond pretty good during the first few pages, but i haven't really been able to get a good read on him. He also supplied a pretty decent reason for his vote on Nuwen early on, which surprised me quite a bit, so im leaning townie at the moment.

TDC- Neutral/Scum. He seems to be attempting to help, and does appear helpful. But that's the thing, it looks to me more like he is trying to appear helpful than actually trying to helpful. The posts don't seem very genuine to me for some reason. I don't know if i was expecting for more of a mind blowing townie performance or what. Another reason i have him this low is because i know he appears townie with almost any role, so when i have the slightest disbelief with him, it will automatically set off alarms.

Zorblag- Your plan of lynching the non-chosens seems good, except for the fact that we will most likely be losing our most helpful players. Most of the players you named, are the ones with more experience and likely to be more helpful in the long run. I think it will have its pro's and con's. I do believe that if we stick to lynching to non-chosen candidates, we can't lose, which is a good thing. However, it will leave a very inexperienced group left to win it for us. I don't know, i am still having mixed feeling about what strategies we should take when playing this game.

[TDC]

Mighty Mouse : Joined: 18 Sep 2008
Nadroj15 : Joined: 25 Apr 2009
afatchick : Joined: 04 Aug 2008

Meant to write AfatChick Accidentally deleted the wrong one when I copied the list from post number 1.

How do I fit into that picture? My join date predates any of the three, yet my result is the same as nadroj's.

Not sure, was just going down the list, didn't really research anyone's games or anything. I've heard that you were a relatively pro-town player. I'd rather have players in the keep category that were known to be clumsy and make mistakes, or ones that i have no knowledge about.

This is still making no sense, because you put me in the keep category.
Based on what you've just said (and the earlier join date argument) I should've been in other.
I'm not really sure what your motiviation would be to mislabel me, but still.

[AshMC1984]

@TDC - sorry - I got a new job this week. I'll try to post more.

@Zorblag - I would randomly generate in much the same way roles are assigned. This would prevent us from being buried in WIFOM.

Unvote

;

Vote: Herodotus

The last game I played with Archon, he was replaced early and flipped scum when his replacement died. I don't think he likes playing scum.

[TDC]

Why's that specifically directed at me?

Can you post the link to that game?

[BloodCovenent]

Why's that specifically directed at me?

Can you post the link to that game?

Kubrick

[Papa Zito]

Unvote; Vote: Herodotus

The last game I played with Archon, he was replaced early and flipped scum when his replacement died. I don't think he likes playing scum.

This is terrible.

unvote
vote: Ash

[afatchic]

@TDC - sorry - I got a new job this week. I'll try to post more.

@Zorblag - I would randomly generate in much the same way roles are assigned. This would prevent us from being buried in WIFOM.

Unvote

;

Vote: Herodotus

The last game I played with Archon, he was replaced early and flipped scum when his replacement died. I don't think he likes playing scum.

He also replaced out pretty early in the game i modded, as a gunsmith. Fail logic.

[Raivann]

Raivann, I'd like to hear what your list of the four most level headed influential players out of the list I gave is in that case.

I could give you a list but it is pretty much random because I dont know...

Zorblag
afatchick
Nuwen
Papa Zito

The idea is good as long as scum excluded the players they thought were the best. They could have done the exact opposite, no?

[Papa Zito]

I could give you a list but it is pretty much random because I dont know...

The idea is good as long as scum excluded the players they thought were the best. They could have done the exact opposite, no?

Is it just me, or does this not scream "I don't want you to know our strategy"?

[Herodotus]

unvote, vote Raivann

I didn't find 184 to be scummy, but I'm okay with lynching Raivann based on earlier suspicions.

[hohum]

Official Vote Count
3 Herodotus: TDC, Raivann, AshMC1984
1 AshMC1984: Papa Zito
1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
2 Raivann: Zorblag, Herodotus
1 Papa Zito: MiteyMouse
0 TDC:

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch and 231,348 to no-lynch

[afatchic]

I could give you a list but it is pretty much random because I dont know...

The idea is good as long as scum excluded the players they thought were the best. They could have done the exact opposite, no?

Is it just me, or does this not scream "I don't want you to know our strategy"?

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

[Papa Zito]

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

It's standard practice to allow scum replacees to communicate with their partners, isn't it?

[BloodCovenent]

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

It's standard practice to allow scum replacees to communicate with their partners, isn't it?

umm... i don't think so... Is It? When I replaced into my first game as scum, I did not have any communications with my partner until night 1. Ever since, I haven't been scum. So I don't know.

[Herodotus]

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

It's standard practice to allow scum replacees to communicate with their partners, isn't it?

Not quite. Normally, there is a quicktopic (basically a private thread,) and they can read whatever the original players wrote.

Example:
In this (abandoned) game http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11252
the QT was here http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/YRngLQvvHXPmZ (it's in reverse chronological order)
When kieraen replaced Gateway, he was given a link to the QT, so he could read what Gateway, Rishi, and I had discussed in pre-game, but none of us could post there during the day.

Things could be different here, but rule 11 suggests there is a scum QT. I assume that a scum being replaced does not grant them a daytalking ability. (I also assume that the scum were not originally allowed to daytalk.)

Two things I want to mention:

1. Sorry for the length/uselessness of the nolynch discussion. I hope it doesn't lead to anyone getting behind.

2. I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

[Papa Zito]

Not quite. Normally, there is a quicktopic (basically a private thread,) and they can read whatever the original players wrote.

Example:
In this (abandoned) game http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11252
the QT was here http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/YRngLQvvHXPmZ (it's in reverse chronological order)
When kieraen replaced Gateway, he was given a link to the QT, so he could read what Gateway, Rishi, and I had discussed in pre-game, but none of us could post there during the day.

Reading the quicktopic would inform the replacement of scum strategy, wouldn't it?

Anyway,

unvote; vote: Raivann

. Pressure produces results.

[afatchic]

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

It's standard practice to allow scum replacees to communicate with their partners, isn't it?

Not quite. Normally, there is a quicktopic (basically a private thread,) and they can read whatever the original players wrote.

Example:
In this (abandoned) game http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11252
the QT was here http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/YRngLQvvHXPmZ (it's in reverse chronological order)
When kieraen replaced Gateway, he was given a link to the QT, so he could read what Gateway, Rishi, and I had discussed in pre-game, but none of us could post there during the day.

Things could be different here, but rule 11 suggests there is a scum QT. I assume that a scum being replaced does not grant them a daytalking ability. (I also assume that the scum were not originally allowed to daytalk.)

Two things I want to mention:

1. Sorry for the length/uselessness of the nolynch discussion. I hope it doesn't lead to anyone getting behind.

2. I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

I didn't read rule 11, and i was thinking 2 scum= no QT thread.

Either way, i still feel as if it is reaching.

[Zorblag]

Zorblag- Your plan of lynching the non-chosens seems good, except for the fact that we will most likely be losing our most helpful players. Most of the players you named, are the ones with more experience and likely to be more helpful in the long run. I think it will have its pro's and con's. I do believe that if we stick to lynching to non-chosen candidates, we can't lose, which is a good thing. However, it will leave a very inexperienced group left to win it for us. I don't know, i am still having mixed feeling about what strategies we should take when playing this game.

Even if that were still true it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Experience certainly doesn't always lead to wins and in this case there is a much stronger reason than normal to keep the less experienced players who were here for the start of the game around. In any case, the replacements that we've had have already changed the dynamic some. With the setup that we're using I think that replacements hurt the scum much more than they normally do.

The prime example I can site here would be Archon being replaced by Herodotus. Archon might have been scum but I also think that he wouldn't have been a good candidate at all to keep around because the scum hoped that he would be replaced. For one thing they'd have had no way to know that it would be a more experienced player subbing in and if they could get him lynched the first day they wouldn't have had to worry about it at all.

@Zorblag - I would randomly generate in much the same way roles are assigned. This would prevent us from being buried in WIFOM.

Unvote; Vote: Herodotus

The last game I played with Archon, he was replaced early and flipped scum when his replacement died. I don't think he likes playing scum.

The scum would have every reason to want to bury is in WIFOM. Further, I'm pretty sure that most scum would think that they could do better than simply a random selection. Even if they didn't rule out all four choices to make tracking it back to them harder they know they'll get at least one night kill. If they could be at all sure they wouldn't want to put up with even one town member for too long they would be better off making sure that they'd be able to lynch them if they needed to; exluding someone as the chosen does that.

Other's have commented on how your argument for Archon being scum isn't compelling. Not only do I agree but I've tried to give reasons not to lynch Archon or his replacement. Did you think that I was completely wrong or did you not notice what I said?

I could give you a list but it is pretty much random because I dont know...

Zorblag
afatchick
Nuwen
Papa Zito

The idea is good as long as scum excluded the players they thought were the best. They could have done the exact opposite, no?

First off, I wasn't part of the game when the choice was made. Even if you're just going to make the choices at more or less random you should make them from players that might have been excluded.

As for the scum being worried that we would try to outguess their choices and pick unexpected exclusions for the chosen one I don't think we have to worry too much about that. The scum would know that there's still going to be a fair amount of chance invovled at the end of the process anyhow. Like I said to to AshMC1984, they know that everyone they pick will be someone they can nightkill if needed. That should be much more useful to scum than trying to throw the town off the track by making suboptimal choices when they can't even be sure that the town would even follow up on this sort of questioning.

As for the whole quicktopic and whether we've got one, I'm not going to make any assumptions one way or the other. I've played plenty of games here that had them and plenty that haven't. I suppose I'll go look to see what hohum has done before as a mod but it shouldn't matter too much. I think that it's pretty clear from the way the scum PM is worded in Post 1 that any replacement scum will at least know who the chosen one is; everything else they can work around without too much trouble including reasons they might have excluded players from getting picked.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, and it looks like hohum did set up Quicktopics for pairs in Open 142. Based on that (well, and rule 11) I would expect that the scum have a Quicktopic that replacements can look at.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[AshMC1984]

Mod: Please replace me. I can't seem to find a balance between my new work and MS yet. Got such little free time. Apologies fellow players.

*sigh*

[Herodotus]

As for the whole quicktopic and whether

we

've got one

?!?
Minor FoS: Zorblag

Anyway,

unvote; vote: Raivann

. Pressure produces results.

Pressure? I want this to be a lynch wagon. Do you, or do you not?

[Zorblag]

I meant we as a game there.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Hi everyone...sorry for my absence. I'm back a bit early and just catching up.