Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[iamausername]

Let's see if this wagon'll get support.

I would rather lynch ThAdmiral than Lowell, so I'm not supporting the wagon in that sense, but I support its general existence because I'm sure that finding out who will/will not jump on board will be very useful for informational purposes later on.

Now, if a counterwagon was to form on dank, that might be one I could support with a vote as well. He's attacking Hero for 'not scumhunting', while he continues to sit around with no vote anywhere, decrying the ThAd wagon, and now also this nascent Lowell wagon, but not giving any suggestions for who we should be lynching instead. Just a little bit of hypocrisy in there, no?

Vote Count Fifteen

Lowell: 4 (kikuchiyo, Hero764, qwints, Nikanor)
ThAdmiral: 4 (SerialClergyman, iamausername, Tenchi, Mokina)
Gwynplaine: 1 (Lowell)
SerialClergyman: 1 (Gwynplaine)

Not Voting: 2 (dank, ThAdmiral)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Current deadline: Saturday, July 18th 8:10 AM EST

[SerialClergyman]

Yep, I'm sticking by the FC wagon.

I am constantly and immediately suspicious of the 'let's all jump to a lurker near deadline' play.

Of the people who switched, kiku had one of the more sound reasons to but delayed her vote until a wagon was rolling.

dank's arse must be sore as anything from sitting on that fence for so long

I don't get Hero's play at all after the doc claim. As far as I can tell, he went back to nadroj, didn't really participate in the game at all (push a case on nadroj, scumhunt etc) exscept to answer a few questions, demp the momentum on FC and at the last moment switch to a lurker.

qwints has seemed pretty solid to me, as has nikanor.

I have limited access at the moment but I promise I'll get on and post before deadline.

[Nikanor]

I'd rather lynch Lowell, but FC works too

[Nikanor]

Sorry, but no.

To whom (or what) are you saying no?

Gut can easily lean town on a player such as he

How does your gut lean town on a player such as Lowell? Has his wagonhopping not met, if not surpassed, in scumminess when compared to Nadroj's?

[kikuchiyo]

I want to point out a few things:

Thadmiral is an unnacceptable lynch for today. I reach this decision after much deliberation. Though it is perfectly plausible for there to be a doc out there unwilling to counterclaim, it is more in our favor to let TA go to night phase. If TA is scum, then a mason will most likely get whacked. Scum would probably not risk hitting the real doc, as that would give us 100% scum day 2. If TA is doc, he is most likely going to get hit tonight. Scum would be silly to let him live and take a chance at losing their nk, no? Whoever is the doc will be in a serious guessing game with scum. Of course, scum could wifomically submit no-kill and try to push the lynch again tomorrow, but that doesn't really play to their favor either.

If TA is not doc and an nk does go through, real doc NEEDS TO COUNTERCLAIM TOMORROW. Anyone counterclaiming after that time should be auto-lynched. I think if we pick off someone else today and let scum and doc battle it out tonight we will be in a much better place tomorrow. Sorry, these are quick thoughts, any input is appreciated, but I am resolved at this point to not lynch the uncounterclaimed doc. It is in town's favor to wait until tomorrow, provided the hypothetical real doc KNOWS THAT THEY NEED TO COUNTERCLAIM THEN.

To whom (or what) are you saying no?

Dank's 565.

How does your gut lean town on a player such as Lowell? Has his wagonhopping not met, if not surpassed, in scumminess when compared to Nadroj's?

Because its day 1 and players have all different types of playstyles. Many players wagonhop to draw attention to themselves, thinking scum will attack them. I find it a popular, but largely inneffective playstyle as most players act scummy while doing it, thus corrupting their suspect pool with townies. However, because its such a popular playstyle it becomes such a null tell that it makes said players(especially ones who lurk) perfect candidates for policy lynching.

[qwints]

If TA is not doc and an nk does go through, real doc NEEDS TO COUNTERCLAIM TOMORROW. Anyone counterclaiming after that time should be auto-lynched.

This is such a anti-town statement that I'm almost willing to policy lynch Kiku for it. The only scenario we need to avoid is doc cc'ing in MYLO or LYLO - that may require a cc tomorrow, but certainly not to start the day.


Dank, your opinion on a Lowell lynch is most certainly not irrelevant. It may not be relevant to your attack on Hero, but 2 days before deadline it's not acceptable to not have an opinion about who we should lynch.

[Gwynplaine]

I'm not sure I follow the logic about the counterclaim, but the first paragraph of K's post above makes a lot of sense to me. If ThAdmiral is still alive on Day 2, maybe he'll see fit to show up and make a case for himself. In the meantime,

unvote

vote: Lowell

[dank]

If TA is not doc and an nk does go through, real doc NEEDS TO COUNTERCLAIM TOMORROW. Anyone counterclaiming after that time should be auto-lynched.

This is such a anti-town statement that I'm almost willing to policy lynch Kiku for it. The only scenario we need to avoid is doc cc'ing in MYLO or LYLO - that may require a cc tomorrow, but certainly not to start the day.


Dank, your opinion on a Lowell lynch is most certainly not irrelevant. It may not be relevant to your attack on Hero, but 2 days before deadline it's not acceptable to not have an opinion about who we should lynch.

Yes, you're right. I had meant it was irrelevant to Hero.

Anyway, sigh, i've let this game go a bit the last week. Tomorrow night, I promise to have a post and a vote. I'm done work at 7. See you guys then.

[Mokina]

I really don't like Lowell's last two posts.

He "thinks there's a decent chance FC's telling the truth" but he's portraying the lynch as inevitable. Anyone for an alternative wagon? That feels incredibly scummy to me.

unvote, vote: Lowell

I'm beginning to sour on the FC wagon. It's not because I believe him particularly - but if he's a genuine doc, I am pretty certain he will be shot tonight. The scum have no interest in leaving him alive ... and forcing them to choose between doc and masons rather benefits the town.

To be fair, it's Lowells playstyle to lurk. That said, I'd be willing to follow through with the suspicions I mentioned in #558. No protown vibe at all from Lowell, and his most recent post feels opportunistic as hell.

Vote: Lowell

[qwints]

That's L-1. Lowell, time for a claim.

[DraketheFake]

Vote Count Fifteen-Point-Five

Lowell:

5 (Gwynplaine, kikuchiyo, Hero764, qwints, Nikanor)

ThAdmiral:

4 (SerialClergyman, iamausername, Tenchi, Mokina)

Gwynplaine:

1 (Lowell)

Not Voting:

2 (dank, ThAdmiral)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Current deadline:

Saturday, July 18th 8:10 AM EST

Prodding

ThAdmiral and Tenchi.

[kikuchiyo]

This is such a anti-town statement that I'm almost willing to policy lynch Kiku for it. The only scenario we need to avoid is doc cc'ing in MYLO or LYLO - that may require a cc tomorrow, but certainly not to start the day.

Perhaps you missed this:

Sorry, these are quick thoughts, any input is appreciated,

but I am resolved at this point to not lynch the uncounterclaimed doc.

Cast unwarranted suspicions much? And no, lylo is a horrible time for a doc counterclaim. Counterclaim must come before lylo.

[qwints]

Well, we agree that the counterclaim must come before LYLO. Sorry if my post offended, but I'm getting tired of the repeated refrain of people demanding a counter-claim before it's necessary. Dank's been a worse offender that you, but not by much.

Mokina needs to unvote for her vote to count.

Dank, I really don't like the fact that you acknowledged that your opinion on Lowell was relevant but have delayed giving one.

[Lowell]

Oh I'm ready.

I'm a

hider

. Normal rules apply. Targetting me for NK will fail, if I hide with scum I'm dead.

Anyway,

unvote, vote ThAdmiral

.

My plan for tonight would be for the tracker (assuming there is one) to follow me. If I end up dead you'll have found a scum, if I end up alive it'll confirm two people's towniness (myself, as I went somewhere without killing someone, and whoever I visit).

[Lowell]

I forgot to mention I also die if whoever I'm hiding with dies. I'm pretty sure that's normal hider policy, but just in case it isn't, thought you might like to know.

[kikuchiyo]

^^ Hammer this guy. Hider's are bad news.

[qwints]

That's certainly the most creative way I've seen scum try to out a PR. 9/10

[iamausername]

^^ Hammer this guy. Hider's are bad news.

What?

[kikuchiyo]

If we run anyone else up we may as well mass claim and I don't think that's a good idea. I'd rather lynch the hider than the doc. The hider ability gives Lowell an excuse to make it to endgame and do whatever the fuck he wants. Its much less of a gamble to lynch Lowell than to follow through on FC/TA.

[iamausername]

The hider ability gives Lowell an excuse to make it to endgame and do whatever the fuck he wants.

Every night he survives, he confirms another player as town. This is far more useful than a claimed doc will ever be.

Even ignoring every other aspect of their play and basing it on claims alone, ThAd is the better lynch. Add in the part where FC was way scummier than Lowell has been, and there's absolutely no question about it.

[Hero764]

Every night he survives, he confirms another player as town.

That's only if he's telling the truth.

[iamausername]

If he's lying scum, he still has to

pretend

to confirm someone as town. That will give us plenty of information, one way or another. So the claim severely limits his options if he's scum (unlike the doc claim), and makes him extremely useful to us if he's town (unlike the doc claim).

I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch Lowell ever, I'm saying his claim makes it really dumb to lynch him today.

[SerialClergyman]

It's 2am - I can check tomorrow before the deadline I think, so no need for drastic vote switch.

Lowell's claim is unusual - don't suppose you've breadcrumbed?

Out of curiosity though, I'm surprised at qwints and kiku for being prepared to lynch another claimed power role when they were very worried about to lynching a doc, the best fakeclaim from a scummy player.

1) Hider confirms town.
2) Hider is confirmable via cop, tracker, possibly watcher, and if anyone he confirms flips scum.
3) Hider has a good chance of death anyway (if he hides with scum, he dies. If he hides with town and town gets targetted he dies.

So - I think that it's pretty unlikely that we've caused 4 players to claim and found a doc, a hider and two masons. That's either pretty much all our power roles found straight up or there's some fakeclaim(s) hidden amongst there.

Anyway, I think the doc is harder to verify, less useful and comes from a more scummy player, so I'm sticking with my vote.

[Lowell]

The hider ability gives Lowell an excuse to make it to endgame and do whatever the fuck he wants.

Every night he survives, he confirms another player as town. This is far more useful than a claimed doc will ever be.

Even ignoring every other aspect of their play and basing it on claims alone, ThAd is the better lynch. Add in the part where FC was way scummier than Lowell has been, and there's absolutely no question about it.

Listen to this guy.

And no, I didn't breadcrumb, at least not intentionally. Because it's retarded.

[Hero764]

If he's lying scum, he still has to

pretend

to confirm someone as town. That will give us plenty of information, one way or another. So the claim severely limits his options if he's scum (unlike the doc claim), and makes him extremely useful to us if he's town (unlike the doc claim).

I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch Lowell ever, I'm saying his claim makes it really dumb to lynch him today.

Those are some good points.

unvote

ThAdmiral: POST SOMETHING