Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[BloodCovenent]

No! I'm here! Just getting more data for my post! Even though it's short already :X

[MiteyMouse]

Remember that I'm L/VA until Sunday...have a good week everyone!

[BloodCovenent]

Unvote

for the moment.

---

Looking over the wagons again... The Papa Zito wagon was just dumb, RVS votes pretty much. And the Archon wagon was all RVS votes until Nuwen jumped on it. she said this...

Upon a cursory meta search, I noticed that you cast random votes in Mini 801 and Mini 785 as town. What induced the sudden change of policy?

But in Mini 801, Archon was not town. She then goes on to ask why Archon doesn't follow with his town meta. But he's not. he was scum in one game, and town in another. This case of Nuwen is remotely flawed. Granted, Archon's responses were poor, I don't feel as if it truly justifies a vote by Nuwen.

---

I don't see anything scummy on Zito. I think the wagon is just a bad idea. unvote.

noted back-off.

considering my vote on him was in the RVS, and was the very first vote of the game, yes, I did back off. Why would i push a lynch on someone that i don't have a case on, or anyone for that matter.

Hey, I did this in a game I was in previously as scum, with much of the same answer. Scum tell? of course not. but I'm making a note.

So... are you using your meta, of your games, against me? If you go and read any of my games, it does not matter what role I have, I will not push a lynch unless I have a case against them. And not stupid cases, like the "sky is blue, you must be lynched." Remotely real cases. The only time that I don't, is when we are at deadline, and the wagon needed is not the wagon that I want lynched.

There's a school of thought that the third voter on a bandwagon is likely scum. What do you think?

Get your head out of the wiki.

I noticed that when it's raining outside, chocolate is cheaper at my local supermarket. Chocolate must be produced by rain. That type of cause-effect inference is similar to using an observation made by the wiki to predict behavior out of context. It's a lovely guise for shitty cases from scum.

I find this to be rather ignorant and rude. as if he's setting Papa Zito up to be a player that is only able to get reads on people, from what is on wiki. Almost like he's trying to cripple PZ's credibility. But PZ is right about the bandwagon. And, how is it a guise for scum? If I were a scum player, i would never say that. Why? If I initially lead the case on someone, and wanted to push that lynch, and I said that, then that would cause people to look into their cases, and then who I wanted to lynch, would not get lynched. Because of the bandwagon disruption. So no, it is a horrible guise for scum.

To avoid looking like I'm just trying to follow Papa Zito's lead on Nuwen here's an abbreviation of the first sentence of the reason that I would give if I were voting for Nuwen right now:

T K T N H T T T T L A A P G A S I H V P A T S O G D O H B I O G W H M # W H R A S W K.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

I don't understand.....

---

I agree with PZ's analysis regarding TDC and Nuwen. Nuwen's argument is flawed from the very beginning, yet he pursued that with haste. TDC is making decisions based on others arguments and such. Seems like an easy way out for him possibly.

I was just kicked out of college and have spent the last few days inside of a bottle, please don't expect much from me right now. I'm sorry.

Appeal to emotion? However, i'm sorry for that loss, it truly sucks.


Another thing that stood out to me is MightyMouse. We're four, now five pages into the game, and you mentioned one thing only, from page three. Could we get some content? It seems like all your doing is IIOA. Here, here, here, Well... no content here, and here. When you're going to be V/LA, at least make a post where you catch up. You haven't done so yet. You have given us practically nothing to work with right now.

Vote: MightyMouse.

Let's see where this goes.

[TDC]

I've been thinking about what Zorblag said and the connections that we all have had to each other before this game. It's very likely that one of us that have played a lot with others in this game are probably not the choosen one. That might narrow it down a bit. As, we want to keep that person alive....having them alive is a big asset to us.

Why would we want to keep someone alive who we think is not the Chosen?
That goes directly against what we should actually try to do, which is keeping alive the Chosen.

I'll be V/LA for 2 days. Posting this in all my games.

What, so you go three straight days without posting anything and then inform us of two days v/la?

I agree with PZ's analysis regarding TDC and Nuwen. Nuwen's argument is flawed from the very beginning, yet he pursued that with haste. TDC is making decisions based on others arguments and such. Seems like an easy way out for him possibly.

I pursued what? I didn't vote Archon for anything meta-related (which seems to be Nuwen's argument you qualify as flawed, correct me if I'm wrong), I voted him for refusing to "random" vote, yet offering nothing else to start off discussion.

[Zorblag]

Nuwen, I'm sorry to hear that you're going through that. Hopefully you'll get things sorted shortly.

OK, now we've seen Papa Zito's reasons for voting Nuwen. Here's what I would have said if I were voting for Nuwen prior to this (the first sentence is what my abbreviation went with):

Troll knows that Nuwen has taken the time to look at Archon’s previous games as she identifies his voting patterns at the start of games despite only having been in one game with him (Mini 734 where he replaced after she was killed.) In this particular game the mafia would have had a strong reason to take a look at other games people have played in when deciding who to exclude from being the chosen. Further, Archon’s play in Troll’s experience be that of scum bait and him be a likely candidate not to be exluded as the chosen should him be town. Votes for him at the start of the game will inherently be suspicious to Troll.

I used Troll-speak to make it slightly harder to guess what it was I would have been saying but there wasn't that much danger of it in any case I suspect.

Having said that, I'm not going to vote for Nuwen, that would just have been my reasons and they wouldn't have impressed me much.

I've been thinking about what Zorblag said and the connections that we all have had to each other before this game. It's very likely that one of us that have played a lot with others in this game are probably not the choosen one. That might narrow it down a bit. As, we want to keep that person alive....having them alive is a big asset to us.

I don't think that we should assume that those people have played with are unlikely to be the chosen one. I think that the scum would probably have excluded people who are harder to lynch and that if we look at anything we should be trying to decide who that would be. Who people have played with gives us at least a place to start for guessing how people might have evaluated each other's play but we need to look at more than just that. I was also seeing how closely the lists people reported would match what I came up with when I looked through everyone's games on my own. Here's what people reported ignoring responses of Zorblag and Hohum:

afatchic: TDC, Archon
Archon: afatchic
AshMC1984: Archon, BloodCovenent
BloodCovenent: Papa Zito, AshMC1984, Archon
MiteyMouse: Papa Zito
Nuwen: No response
Papa Zito: nadroj15, BloodCovenent, MiteyMouse
TDC: afatchic

This is what I got by looking through the games:

afatchic: Archon, TDC, Nuwen
Archon: BloodCovenent, AshMC1984, Nuwen, afatchic
AshMC1984: Archon, BloodCovenent
BloodCovenent: Archon, AshMC1984, Papa Zito, Nuwen
MiteyMouse: Papa Zito
Nadroj15: Papa Zito
Nuwen: Archon, BloodCovenent, TDC, afatchic
Papa Zito: BloodCovenent, MiteyMouse, Nadroj15
TDC: afatchic, Nuwen

One reason that I wanted Nuwen to chime in before I did this is that no one claims to have been in a game with her which is odd as apparently I found 4 people she's played with or had modding interactions with by one party or the other.

I'll take another look at the differences between the self reports and what I found and see if I'm counting anything extra but before I do that I'll let anyone that would like to comment on the two lists.

@BloodCovenent: Why would you cast a vote for MiteyMouse saying that you'll see what her response is directly after she says that she'll be V/LA for the next 5 days?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually, another question for everyone in the game: If you had to choose any 4 of the following players to exclude as the chosen who would you pick and why?

Archon
AshMC1984
BloodCovenent
afatchic
MiteyMouse
nadroj15
Nuwen
Papa Zito
TDC

Those were most likely the players that the mafia chose between when making their decision. Two of them are mafia and the lists that people give won't take that into account but I'm interested in hearing who people think they would want to make sure wasn't the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[afatchic]

TDC, MiteyMouse, nadroj15, Papa Zito.

More content later tonight

[Zorblag]

afatchic, when you do post later tonight please be sure to give a sentence or two on each of those 4 as to why you would exclude them as the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

I really like where Troll's going.

I'm not sure which of the four I'd choose. I would have to research them all and figure out which ones appeared most pro-town on average. I'd pick those four.

If you really want me to pick people I can but you'll have to give me some time.

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, take the time you need but I'd like everyone to answer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Arrite, I'll put it together tomorrow.

[TDC]

One reason that I wanted Nuwen to chime in before I did this is that no one claims to have been in a game with her which is odd as apparently I found 4 people she's played with or had modding interactions with by one party or the other.

My game with Nuwen is on-going and started just a few days before this one, hence I didn't count it as "experience".

Actually, another question for everyone in the game: If you had to choose any 4 of the following players to exclude as the chosen who would you pick and why?

Archon
AshMC1984
BloodCovenent
afatchic
MiteyMouse
nadroj15
Nuwen
Papa Zito
TDC

That should be ah2190 and ClockworkRuse instead of Archon and afatchic, shouldn't it?
I need to look at games of everyone before I can say much.

[TDC]

Actually:

Mod: Can you confirm whether the Chosen was chosen before or after ah2190 and ClockworkRuse had been replaced?

[afatchic]

afatchic, when you do post later tonight please be sure to give a sentence or two on each of those 4 as to why you would exclude them as the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

It was really just process of elimination. Honestly, TDC was about the only 1 i would want to make sure was not the chosen if i was mafia. After that it would have just been a random pick for the next three.

[TDC]

Makes sense, I guess.

I've had a glance at how often everybody's been lynched as town, and from that I'd think:
Papa Zito, BloodCovenent and myself (though I realize I'm hardly objective on that one since I've only looked how often people got lynched (and how late in the game), while of course I know

why I

got lynched when I did.
Fourth spot could go to either Nuwen or nadroj (who is a bit of a wild card, with as far as I can see, only one completed newbie game?)
Backup if there's two scum in the above: MiteyMouse.

[TDC]

The "Makes sense, I guess" was directed at the Troll.

[TDC]

Well, afatchic also seems to get replaced rather often, so that might gain him a spot as well, hm.

[BloodCovenent]

N
@BloodCovenent: Why would you cast a vote for MiteyMouse saying that you'll see what her response is directly after she says that she'll be V/LA for the next 5 days?

Sorry, i just get frustrated some times when people aren't active during important times. (this isn't the first game). Our mod left us in another game

I'll keep my vote there, unless I put some other case together, or i need to change my vote. I really need to know what is going through MM's head right now.

As for that list that you need us to make, i'll try and get that with in the next day or so. Just have a lot on my hands right now with work.

[Papa Zito]

Only way to kill the Chosen is a lynch. So as scum I would have to exclude players who are typically hard to lynch/can defend themselves well.

Archon - KEEP - Mini 781.
AshMC1984 - KEEP - Serial lurker - Open 143, Mini 779 (scum) Mini 801 (town).
Bloodcovenent - KEEP - His only completed game is Newbie. Fun fact, I learned in that Bloodcovenant and Cateraction are friends in Realtime.
afatchic - EXCLUDE - Highly active; gets killed N1 a lot.
MiteyMouse - KEEP - I dunno, I always see her as scummy.
nadroj15 - KEEP - Only completed game is newbie.
Nuwen - EXCLUDE - Vet, plays strong as town, lots of analysis.
Papa Zito - HURR. Though objectively I'd exclude me if I were scum. And if I were a different player. Looking at me. ... ?
TDC - EXCLUDE - Similar to Nuwen.

So afatchic, Nuwen, TDC. For the fourth I'd throw in Mitey since apparently everyone else seems to view her as town. heh

[BloodCovenent]

hey, i was in 801 as well, and i made it to end game

[Papa Zito]

hey, i was in 801 as well, and i made it to end game

So you did. I missed that one. Sorry.

[Zorblag]

I made a post earlier that was deleted but which TDC was talking about when he said:

The "Makes sense, I guess" was directed at the Troll.

I think that he was agreeing with my assumption that those excluded from being the chosen were determined by the scum after Archon and afatchic had replaced in:

After Archon and afatchic had confirmed (at least to the mod) there was a 24 hour wait time before the game started. I'm assuming that this was to give the mafia time once they saw the player list to make their plans though it is only an assumption on my part.

I'd love to have the mod answer TDC's question from Post 112 to help determine who we should be looking at here as it's a very good question to ask.

afatchic, did you have anything else you were planning on talking about when you said that you were planning on posting more yesterday evening or was it just the reasons that you gave?

Thank you Papa Zito and TDC for your answers. BloodCovenent, take your time as I'd like to hear your informed answer rather than something rushed. I still want to hear from everyone else.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[hohum]

The town does not know when the scum team finished the selection process. The intention was to delay the start of the game from the very beginning in order to remove the temptation for metagaming and I should have made that more clear. As a friendly reminder to all players this was designed to be a semi-open setup. Everything you need to know is in the first two posts.

[BloodCovenent]

Thank you Papa Zito and TDC for your answers. BloodCovenent, take your time as I'd like to hear your informed answer rather than something rushed. I still want to hear from everyone else.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

I'll post more in depth tomorrow i guess. It's just late, and i have work in the morning.

The way that I would look at it would probably be different from the way that others would have chosen. I would keep players that I have already played with before, rather than exclude them. Mainly because I have a small knowledge of their play style, and have either seen them as pro-town roles vs scum. In brief, players such as AshMC1984 and Papa Zito (whom I have played with) i would have rather kept them in the running from chosen one. Something along those lines, if you really want me to go into more detail, let me know. This is my first time playing with the majority of the group here, so I don't have much knowledge of many of the players. My list would be considerably short.

That's probably how I would choose the list, either that, or take the people with the least amount of experience on MS and let them be in the running.

[Zorblag]

BloodCovenent, that method is fine but I do still want to see what you'd come up with as a list of four players after taking experience into account.

Mod: If Archon and Nuwen haven't been prodded could you prod them? I know that MiteyMouse and AshMC1984 are V/LA so I won't ask for them to be prodded yet.

Done

-Zorblag R`Lyeh