Open 148: Jungle Republic (Game over) before 800

[Hero764]

I think Yos2 is our best choice. I'm going to do a reread of his posts in iso, but I really don't like the logic he was using against Caboose yesterday, for reasons explained.

[iamausername]

Yosarian

Hero is the common denominator of all the wolf teams that I think make sense. Still pretty much sure that

iamausername

Wulfy is town. Gonna re read.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still happy lynching Hero. The whole way he's attacking me simply because I attacked him yesterday just makes him look worse.

[Hero764]

I'm still happy lynching Hero. The whole way he's attacking me

simply because I attacked him yesterday

just makes him look worse.

Wrong. I obviously attacked you because you used horrible logic, yet you think its ok to just dismiss it as OMGUS. You shouldn't be using false accusations like this, especially in MYLO. Seems like you're overeager to get me lynched and win the game for the werewolf team

[Yosarian2]

There was noting horrible about my logic, hero. I explained it to you like 6 times yesterday. There's no way you still don't understand what I am saying. Therefore, I do think your attack on me is OMGUS, because I don't get how you could have a problem with my posts yesterday otherwise.

[Wulfy]

Yosarian

Hero is the common denominator of all the wolf teams that I think make sense. Still pretty much sure that

iamausername

Wulfy is town. Gonna re read.

Is that your opinion, or are you being argumentative on OGML's positions?

[Wulfy]

EBWOP: I am ignoring the above argument in terms of presenting commentary. I wanna see more on there interaction.

[Hero764]

There was noting horrible about my logic, hero. I explained it to you like 6 times yesterday. There's no way you still don't understand what I am saying. Therefore, I do think your attack on me is OMGUS, because I don't get how you could have a problem with my posts yesterday otherwise.

Your logic:

If only one partner is absent during the night it still makes sense to call that the reason for the no kill. All you did was give me one scenario which is highly unlikely considering most the time both partners will talk to eachother. To use this as the entire basis for your suspicion against me is incredibly dumb.

Here's the scenario you gave for reference:

Ok, let me explain this, because again, I've seen this happen. Let's say that Caboose sent in the nightkill night 1 and night 2. Let's also say, just for the sake of argument, that he and his partner didn't talk much. If his partner wasn't aware Caboose was gone night 3, then there's a pretty high chance that the nightkill might just not get sent in.

Tell me Yos, how often do you think something like this could happen? Just because you've "seen it happen" doesn't mean that it's valid reasoning to use against someone. Maybe on day 2, but in MYLO?

[iamausername]

Yosarian

Hero is the common denominator of all the wolf teams that I think make sense. Still pretty much sure that

iamausername

Wulfy is town. Gonna re read.

Is that your opinion, or are you being argumentative on OGML's positions?

My opinion.

Hero, who is Yos's partner?
Yos, who is Hero's partner?

[Hero764]

My opinion.

Hero, who is Yos's partner?
Yos, who is Hero's partner?

I'm not sure yet. I'll get back to you after the reread.

[Yosarian2]

Tell me Yos, how often do you think something like this could happen? Just because you've "seen it happen" doesn't mean that it's valid reasoning to use against someone. Maybe on day 2, but in MYLO?

It happens pretty often, actually. In any case, if the scum failed to get the kill in, I would expect both members of the scum team to not be paying much attention to the game; not to be completly inactive, perhaps, but people who are only semi-active. No matter how you look at it, it can only make Caboose look worse.

Anyway, that certanly isn't my only reason for suspecting you. My biggest problem with Caboose's play is simply that I had absolutly no reason to think he was pro-town, I had no read on him at all, which usually means that someone is scum. And your play since you replaced in has mostly just been to flail and attack me for attacking you.

[Hero764]

It happens pretty often, actually. In any case, if the scum failed to get the kill in, I would expect both members of the scum team to not be paying much attention to the game; not to be completly inactive, perhaps, but people who are only semi-active. No matter how you look at it, it can only make Caboose look worse.

...it only takes like a minute of paying attention to the game to send a kill in. If you claim you are town and I'm scum, then my scum partner was certainly active that night, and I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't find the time to send in a kill. The only way this logic works is if you are my partner, which obviously doesn't work for you.

Anyway, that certanly isn't my only reason for suspecting you. My biggest problem with Caboose's play is simply that I had absolutly no reason to think he was pro-town, I had no read on him at all, which usually means that someone is scum. And your play since you replaced in has mostly just been to flail and attack me for attacking you.

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

And again, I attacked you for using flawed logic, even if you think I'm wrong, you can't just dismiss it as OMGUS. Doing so is incredibly scummy. Also, to be fair, I've not even been in this game for a full 24 hours of the day phases.

[Yosarian2]

It happens pretty often, actually. In any case, if the scum failed to get the kill in, I would expect both members of the scum team to not be paying much attention to the game; not to be completly inactive, perhaps, but people who are only semi-active. No matter how you look at it, it can only make Caboose look worse.

...it only takes like a minute of paying attention to the game to send a kill in.

Yes. And the scum didn't do that, apparently. So, what does that tell you?

If you claim you are town and I'm scum, then my scum partner was certainly active that night

Except obviously he wasn't.

Look, the most likely scenerio here is that both members of hte scum team were careless, not paying attention, and perhaps didn't care much about the game. This is especally true since even if they wouldn't be around they could still have sent a kill in beforehand. They may have just screwed up for some other reason, but even then, that's more likely to happen if they're not paying attention to the game. And all of that makes Caboose look worse.

And again, I attacked you for using flawed logic, even if you think I'm wrong, you can't just dismiss it as OMGUS. Doing so is incredibly scummy.

You are claiming my logic is flawed, even though it clearly is not. Therefore, either you are using OMGUS, which is scummy, or you are attacking me with flawed logic, which (as you just said) is scummy.

Also, to be fair, I've not even been in this game for a full 24 hours of the day phases.

I know. It sucks when you replace in and you're scum and your predecessor screwed up, huh?

[Hero764]

Why did you ignore this:

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

Yes. And the scum didn't do that, apparently. So, what does that tell you?

How do you know what scum did? Is it because you're scum? There's a number of reasons for them not sending in a nightkill, and you're just assuming that your theory(that inactivity caused it) is correct, and I'm telling you that it is highly unlikely. Why are you dragging this out?

Except obviously he wasn't.

Look, the most likely scenerio here is that both members of hte scum team were careless, not paying attention, and perhaps didn't care much about the game. This is especally true since even if they wouldn't be around they could still have sent a kill in beforehand. They may have just screwed up for some other reason, but even then, that's more likely to happen if they're not paying attention to the game. And all of that makes Caboose look worse.

What the hell makes that the most likely scenario? I certainly don't think it is. Sending in a night action is probably the easiest part of the game.

[Yosarian2]

]How do you know what scum did? Is it because you're scum?

Um, no it's because the scum didn't kill anyone, and if they were paying attention they should have.

There's a number of reasons for them not sending in a nightkill

Like what?

, and you're just assuming that your theory(that inactivity caused it) is correct, and I'm telling you that it is highly unlikely.

Eh? That dosn't make any sense. How is it "highly unlikely"? It happens all the time that scum just fail to get a kill in because they're not paying attention or not around or not thinking or there's a miscommunication or something. I can think of any number of games where it's happened.

Except obviously he wasn't.

Look, the most likely scenerio here is that both members of hte scum team were careless, not paying attention, and perhaps didn't care much about the game. This is especally true since even if they wouldn't be around they could still have sent a kill in beforehand. They may have just screwed up for some other reason, but even then, that's more likely to happen if they're not paying attention to the game. And all of that makes Caboose look worse.

What the hell makes that the most likely scenario? I certainly don't think it is. Sending in a night action is probably the easiest part of the game.

[/quote]

Well, then, what do you think happened?

Yes, sending in a nightkill is easy, but it's also a pretty easy thing to forget to do, especally if your scumbuddy has vanished.

What scenerio do you think is more likely for why the scum didn't kill, then?

[Yosarian2]

ALso, I really, really find it scummy the way you've ignoring everything else that happens all game and all you seem to care about is me supporting the theory that the fact that no one got a kill in makes Caboose look worse, especally since I'm not even the only one who thinks that's true.

We're in lynch or lose, hero. Why aren't you scumhunting? Why are you just flipping out on me just because I suspect you?

[Wulfy]

Okay, at this point all I am really feeling from the Yos2 vs Hero is some heavy distancing...

Yos2's point on both being inactive makes himself, OGML, or (maybe) UN. On one hand, I am forced to believe this with 67% accuracy:

Yos2 and Caboose (now Hero) would be forced to slam each other as there is a 100% chance one of them would be scum today.

The remaining 33% assumes either one of them maybe scum with someone else and are trying hard to make it through this one day.

The odds are in favor that their scum together, so I'll keep my pseudo vote on Hero.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2 and Caboose (now Hero) would be forced to slam each other as there is a 100% chance one of them would be scum today.

Excuse me? "100% chance"? Where do you get that from, exactally?

I'm calling it. Scum team is Hero and Wulfy.

[Wulfy]

What do you mean where do I get that? My theory yesterday states that between the three of Tarballs, Yos2, and Hero (caboose) there is (essentially) a 100% chance of at least one scum. I can't even fathom the contrary. Today, one of those people (Tarballs) is gone, so why would my reasoning not continue to say my above statement that concludes a 100% chance of wolf between you and Hero. I feel that you're reaching Yos2.

[Yosarian2]

What do you mean where do I get that? My theory yesterday states that between the three of Tarballs, Yos2, and Hero (caboose) there is (essentially) a 100% chance of at least one scum. I can't even fathom the contrary.

You "can't even fathom" the contrary? That's hard to believe. There's no way a pro-town person could be 100% certain of ANYTHING, especally involving the scum kill.

From my point of view, it looks like yeterday you distanced from Caboose/Hero while actually pushing the tarballs lynch over his without any really good reason, while I was actually trying quite hard to lynch Hero instead of tarballs. Now, it looks like you're willing to bus Hero, but only if it means you can get me lynched tommorow in a 3 man endgame for the scum win; the way you're trying to say that "hero and yos are both scum" really looks like you're trying to set up a scum win tommorow.

Plus, both OGML and Iamusername have looked pretty pro-town to me this game. That really just leaves you and Hero.

Today, one of those people (Tarballs) is gone, so why would my reasoning not continue to say my above statement that concludes a 100% chance of wolf between you and Hero. I feel that you're reaching Yos2.

It's not that one of those people "is gone". You delibratly pushed for tarballs to be lynched, instead of the obvscum Hero. And now you're willing to bus hero, but only if you can connect him to me first.

[Wulfy]

You're argument is self-destructive. Even you just acknowledged my deduction:

Plus, both OGML and Iamusername have looked pretty pro-town to me this game. That really just leaves you and Hero.

This is part of my sentiments exactly. Maybe, you're town. However, that doesn't explain why your paranoia. I stated that between you and Hero there is a 100% chance of scum. I didn't intend this to mean the scum team. That has a 67% chance of being correct.

So, we both think that UN and OGML is town. You are attacking me because I'm making the obvious deduction that Hero and Yos2 is scum? Also, I was attacking Hero, Tarballs, and you yesterday. One of the things that push me to vote him is his hammer. What exactly did you expect me to do? Unvote? Say:
Oh, well, I said if Tarballs flipped town that I would vote Hero tomorrow, but he hammered, so maybe I was wrong?

I mean, really. You're creating a giant ball of speculation based on conjecture and nonsense. Then again, you might be caught scum who is trying his best bet, which is to attack anyone with baseless speculation...

It's not impossible, but I still wanna continue picking through other potential pairings. One can be wrong, you know.

[Yosarian2]

This is part of my sentiments exactly. Maybe, you're town. However, that doesn't explain why your paranoia. I stated that between you and Hero there is a 100% chance of scum. I didn't intend this to mean the scum team.

I still don't get how you would think that anything is 100%. I'm not 100% sure of anything in this game, or in almost any game when I'm town.

So, we both think that UN and OGML is town. You are attacking me because I'm making the obvious deduction that Hero and Yos2 is scum?

I'm attacking you because you are acting in a way that I would expect the scum to act both today and yesterday.

You haven't actually answered my main concern here, wolfy. Why were you pushing the tarballs wagon over the hero wagon yesterday? You kept saying that you would be willing to lynch either, but I think that was a smokescreen; you didn't really seem interested in lynching hero yesterday, looking at your actions and your votes, despite your words.

I mean, really. You're creating a giant ball of speculation based on conjecture and nonsense. Then again, you might be caught scum who is trying his best bet, which is to attack anyone with baseless speculation...

It's not speculation or nonesense. It certanly is conjecture, but that's a bit part of what mafia is about. For the most part, it's just that the most likely scum is you-hero, and your actions today and yesterday seem to fit that model perfectly. Especally with you pushing the unlikely "hero and yos are scum together" theory, when I really can't imagine you believing that as town, considering the way I've been basically the main one attacking him both yesterday and today and considering the way he was fighting back.

It's not impossible, but I still wanna continue picking through other potential pairings. One can be wrong, you know.

Oh? I thought you had already declared that there was a 100% chance of you being right?

[Yosarian2]

So this is how I see it happening.

1. We lynch hero today. He flips scum, as he obviously will.

2. OGML dosn't get killed tonight, even though he's obvtown, for the same reason you've been keeping him alive all game; because you want him to vote for me in endgame.

3. OGML then has to make a decision. You figured you had it in the bag, especally if you tie me to hero strongly enough, and especally with OGML's game-long suspicions of me. I don't think he's that manipulatable, though.

Well, I guess we'll find out.

Vote:Hero

[Hero764]

Hey, Yos, why are you continually ignoring this?

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

It certainly isn't helping your case to ignore it.

Like what?

Like if they wanted to throw off the town.
Like if they couldn't come to an agreement and the time ran out.
Like if they thought killing someone that night would throw suspicion onto them.

There's probably other reasons we can think of too. Fact of the matter is: You can't assume why the scum didn't send in a night kill, and then call it obvious unless you are scum yourself.

Eh? That dosn't make any sense. How is it "highly unlikely"? It happens all the time that scum just fail to get a kill in because they're not paying attention or not around or not thinking or there's a miscommunication or something. I can think of any number of games where it's happened.[/quote
1) I've never seen it happen.
2) There are other explanations as well.
3) You can't just assume that's the only possible explanation.

Well, then, what do you think happened?

I don't know. I think you do know Yos.

Yes, sending in a nightkill is easy, but it's also a pretty easy thing to forget to do, especally if your scumbuddy has vanished.

I dunno, if I were scum it would be in the back of mind for all 72 hours.

Also, OGML is probably Yos's partner. He's been active lurking since June 12. He's also said twice now that he's 100% certain Yos is scum, yet never votes for him. Why? Looks like a (not so)clever distancing tactic to me. Also, how could he be 100% certain of anything unless he himself was scum with Yos? And notice how Yos attacks Wulfy for using 100%, but has ignored both times OGML used it. More evidence to the connection. And finally we have this nice quote from Yos2:

OGML dosn't get killed tonight, even though he's obvtown, for the same reason you've been keeping him alive all game; because you want him to vote for me in endgame.

How is he obvtown? He's been active lurking like fuck.

I'm fairly confident in a OGML/Yos2 scum pair atm.

One more thing to note: This even fits with Yos2's theory about scum not caring enough to send in a night kill. Yos2 was absent, and OGML certainly shows a lack of care for this game. So this could easily be considered a scumslip on Yos's part.

Okay, at this point all I am really feeling from the Yos2 vs Hero is some heavy distancing...

Why can it only be distancing? Why are you unwilling to consider the possibility that we hold different alignments?

Yos2 and Caboose (now Hero) would be forced to slam each other as there is a 100% chance one of them would be scum today.

I gotta agree with Yos on this, where the hell are you getting 100% from? Possible Wulfy-Yos connection? Its more likely than a IAAU-Yos connection at least.

Gonna reread Wulfy in iso.

[Yosarian2]

Hey, Yos, why are you continually ignoring this?

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

It certainly isn't helping your case to ignore it.

How am I ignoring it? I did just explain that I have a pro-town read on OGML and Iamusername, and I've actually been saying that for a long time, if you've been reading my posts.

Anyway, if a person has been playing in such a way as to really do nothing, to not give any read of any type, it usually means they're scum, in my opinion; after all, that's generally what scum want to do, is to not be noticed.

Like what?

Like if they wanted to throw off the town.
Like if they couldn't come to an agreement and the time ran out.
Like if they thought killing someone that night would throw suspicion onto them.

There's probably other reasons we can think of too. Fact of the matter is: You can't assume why the scum didn't send in a night kill, and then call it obvious unless you are scum yourself.

The first and third reasons would be terribly bad play; scum could and probably would have won yesterday if they'd killed someone. In any case, bad play would also make wolfy and caboose look bad instead of Iamusername or OGML; they're way too experenced to make a mistake like that.

The second reason is certanly possible, but again, that's more likely to happen if the scum aren't paying much attention to the game or don't care very much about the game, which is exactally what I was saying all along.

Eh? That dosn't make any sense. How is it "highly unlikely"? It happens all the time that scum just fail to get a kill in because they're not paying attention or not around or not thinking or there's a miscommunication or something. I can think of any number of games where it's happened.[/quote
1) I've never seen it happen.
2) There are other explanations as well.
3) You can't just assume that's the only possible explanation.

1. I just told you about a game where it did happen, Lynch all Lurkers, a recently completed game I just modded. Do I need to find you more examples?

2. Sure, but none that make sense to me, unless the scum are playing very badly.

3. I never said it was. But the fact that it's a likely explination makes you more likely to be scum, which is all I ever said about the subject.

Anyway, if you want me to unvote you now, you need to convince me that either Iamusername or OGML are more likely scum then you are; because if they're both town, then you have to be scum, from my point of view.

Well, then, what do you think happened?

I don't know. I think you do know Yos.

He then goes on to spin some conspiricy theory about me being scum with OGML, which dosn't really make any sense at all.