Open 148: Jungle Republic (Game over) before 800

[Wulfy]

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

That should be 3 votes on Caboose and 2 votes on me.

So your soul reason for dropping your 100% vote on Yos seems to because Caboose is going to be lynched at some point and to bump him above you in the vote tally.

Weak.

I think I somehow only saw him voting Caboose and completely missed what was obviously flawed and scummy reasoning.

Okay, Sotty. I think you've swayed me with this point (intentionally or not) so:

Unvote; Vote Tarballs

For the same reasons Caboose is likely wolf, Tarballs is wolf. Also, Sotty's point in the above post makes it slightly more likely Tarballs is scum.

[Tarballs]

So your soul reason for dropping your 100% vote on Yos seems to because Caboose is going to be lynched at some point and to bump him above you in the vote tally.

Weak.

First of all, it's

about

100% vote. There is a slight difference. And I'm almost as convinced that Caboose is wolf. I even said that in post 334.

Secondly, people don't seem to want to lynch Yos today, so my vote on him is a waste. So why not change it?

[OhGodMyLife]

Its July 5th, I'm hung over.

[Hero764]

Hey I'm Caboose's replacement.

Reading the thread right now.

[Datadanne]

Hey I'm Caboose's replacement.

Reading the thread right now.

That.

[Yosarian2]

I just sent the mod a question about this, and got the answer.

If I had been scum, knowing I would be away, I would have asked the mod if I could have sent the night choice in early, even before night started. I just sent the mod a PM asking him in the hypothetical if he would have accepted that, and he would have.

So the theory that I am a warewolf who didn't get the nightchoice in is incorrect; if I had been a warewolf, I would have been able to get the nightchoice in early, and I definatly would have, since I've know for months I would be away.

I'm pretty happy with my Caboose vote. He wasn't around at all, so if he's a wolf it could partially explain their lack of a night choice.

[Wulfy]

Well, Caboose and Tarballs are nearly tied at the top of my scum list... I think it's entirely possible that they are scum together.

If they're not, then there is one other theory I can think of, but it seems contrived and stupid.

Meh...if Caboose and Tarballs are mafia, we got lucky. Still, I smell a rat. Seems too easy...

Gah, I hate these situations...

I'm stickin' to my guns and maintaining my vote. If someone can convince me of Caboose>tar, I can still switch, but right now, Tar looks slightly worse.

[Hero764]

Alrighty...finally finished.

First off, F**K LONG POSTS. I used to think Mastin's playstyle was pretty interesting, but now its just f*****g annoying. All it shows is your f*****g inability to get a point across in a clear manner. REPEATING THE SAME F*****G THING TO DIFFERENT SNIPPETS OF THE SAME SENTENCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN YOUR ARGUMENT.

Ok.

Second off, the lack of activity in this game is disappointing. Just saying.

Thirdly, about the no kill last night. Caboose(me) still would have a partner who could send the night kill in, and if he was online to set up his game surely he could send in a simple night kill. Tarballs, according to IAAUU, posted 5 hours before, so I don't see why he couldn't send in a night kill at that time. Yos is the only one that fully fits this "theory". He gets even more suspicious w/ this post:

Anyway, Iamusername makes a good argument there. I've seen scum fail to get in nightkills for no good reason before even when they're around, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two wolves was away last night. I could see lynching either Caboose or Tarballs today.

He completely ignores the fact that his name was also mentioned in Iamausername's post, possible buddying up to avoid further scrutiny from UN(yes I'm going to write your name differently every time )? And the whole 'at least one of two wolves' is completely faulty, since only one were partner would need to be present anyways to send in a night kill.

Fourth, Tarballs. Oh boy. His day 4 posts are incredibly scummy.

I agree that I could've done a lot more on Day 3... and I'll just leave it as that. No excuses.

No excuses? So its ok for people to suspect you, then?

Vote: Yosarian2
I am about 100% certain he's wolf.

Like Scotty has said, the only way you could be 100% certain is if you were his partner =/.

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

Why did you move your vote from Yos2 if you were 100% sure he was scum? Because you were afraid of scurtiny? Seems like obvscum to me

Vote: Tarballs

First of all, it's about 100% vote. There is a slight difference. And I'm almost as convinced that Caboose is wolf. I even said that in post 334.

Why put 100%, obviously implying you were completely satisfied with your vote, if that isn't what you meant. Typical scum making an indefinite statement so they can go and do this.

Secondly, people don't seem to want to lynch Yos today, so my vote on him is a waste. So why not change it?

Because you were 100% sure of it?

And the point of mafia is to convince people to vote for your suspect, not to give up and switch to another lynch. That's what scum do.

Next, Yos. Only one post that really jumps out at me:

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the wolves did screw up. I'm not as confident as you that that proves they weren't around; I've seen scum teams just fail to get in kills while they were around, it just happened in the lynch all lurkers game I modded for example and both of the scum posted in the scum quicktopic that night. That being said, it does dramatically increase the odds of Caboose being scum, and I'm perfectly willing to vote there today.

Which is it? Inactivity or just failed to get a kill in? If it's inactivity and the odds of me being scum,

you are the only the logical scum partner for me

.

And lastly, I just want to address Wulfy. Out of the entire thread, only Mastin seemed to seriously suspect him, and it seems as everyone's been taking him for granted and such.

He seems to think both me AND Tarballs can be scum together due to no kill, but that doesn't work, because Tarballs was active 5 hours beforehand, and could have easily sent in a night kill. Also, on page 14(not going to bother quoting, just look for yourself if you don't remember) Wulfy pointed out that the fact that there wasn't a quicklynch meant one of us was scum. IAAU responds to this under the assumption that Wulfy was simply mistaken, and wasn't even considering the possibility that Wulfy had intentionally used faulty logic to incriminate us. Possible connection I think.

[Yosarian2]

Thirdly, about the no kill last night. Caboose(me) still would have a partner who could send the night kill in, and if he was online to set up his game surely he could send in a simple night kill. Tarballs, according to IAAUU, posted 5 hours before, so I don't see why he couldn't send in a night kill at that time. Yos is the only one that fully fits this "theory". He gets even more suspicious w/ this post:

Anyway, Iamusername makes a good argument there. I've seen scum fail to get in nightkills for no good reason before even when they're around, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two wolves was away last night. I could see lynching either Caboose or Tarballs today.

He completely ignores the fact that his name was also mentioned in Iamausername's post, possible buddying up to avoid further scrutiny from UN(yes I'm going to write your name differently every time )? And the whole 'at least one of two wolves' is completely faulty, since only one were partner would need to be present anyways to send in a night kill.

How is it suspicious that I didn't suggest lynching myself? That's absurd. After all, I know I'm town. It dosn't mean the theory is invalid, only that from my point of view, I know it dosn't apply to me.

In my experence, scum groups usually get used to one person sending in the kill every night. If that person is not around, and the partner does not realize this, then it's not uncommon for the scum group to fail to get an action in. It also sometimes happens that all of the scum group is around and they just screw up and miss the deadline anyway. But, despite this, this is a reason to be more suspicious of the people who were not around then of those who were around, and I am saying this despite the fact that I was not around and am town anyway.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the wolves did screw up. I'm not as confident as you that that proves they weren't around; I've seen scum teams just fail to get in kills while they were around, it just happened in the lynch all lurkers game I modded for example and both of the scum posted in the scum quicktopic that night. That being said, it does dramatically increase the odds of Caboose being scum, and I'm perfectly willing to vote there today.

Which is it? Inactivity or just failed to get a kill in?

\

Well, obviously, I don't know; the only people who actualy know if they just failed to get a kill in or if they were inactive, or some combination of the two, are the wolves themselves. It does increase your odds of being scum, though.

[Hero764]

How is it suspicious that I didn't suggest lynching myself? That's absurd. After all, I know I'm town. It dosn't mean the theory is invalid, only that from my point of view, I know it dosn't apply to me.

Misrep much? When in that entire post did I suggest you lynching yourself? My point is that you completely neglected defending yourself, and instead attempted to get IAAU to forget about you and focus only on Tarballs and I.

Well, obviously, I don't know; the only people who actualy know if they just failed to get a kill in or if they were inactive, or some combination of the two, are the wolves themselves. It does increase your odds of being scum, though.

If it increases my chance it increases your as well, and I'm pretty sure you aren't saying that you are scum. Your logic is faulty.

[Yosarian2]

How is it suspicious that I didn't suggest lynching myself? That's absurd. After all, I know I'm town. It dosn't mean the theory is invalid, only that from my point of view, I know it dosn't apply to me.

Misrep much? When in that entire post did I suggest you lynching yourself? My point is that you completely neglected defending yourself, and instead attempted to get IAAU to forget about you and focus only on Tarballs and I.

Eh? IAAU made an argument that makes both me, Tarballs, and you look bad. I actually agreed that the argument was logical, as I made clear, although I obviously know it dosn't apply to me. What more do you expect me to say about it?

I actually did defend myself later, if you notice, in post 355. Nonetheless, Iam made an arguemnt in the form of "people who do X are more likely to be scum", and I agree with the arguemnt, even though I did X and I am town.

Well, obviously, I don't know; the only people who actualy know if they just failed to get a kill in or if they were inactive, or some combination of the two, are the wolves themselves. It does increase your odds of being scum, though.

If it increases my chance it increases your as well, and I'm pretty sure you aren't saying that you are scum. Your logic is faulty.

No, my logic is not. Of course it increses my chances of being scum; it certanly dosn't increase them to 100%, and I am, in fact, town, but that dosn't actually invalidate the argument.

If "People who do X are more likely to be scum then people who do not do X", that argument may very well be correct even though I did X and am town. You're trying to find a contradiction where none exists.

I also find it interesting you're defending Tarballs here and attacking me. Your defense of Tarballs seems to be "He could have gotten the night choice in; after all, he was around 5 hours before night started." Well, sure, since the mod apparenlty accepts night choices sent in before night starts if you know you'll be away, he could have, if he knew he was going to be gone for the entire night. I did know I was going to be away for a week, so therefore I also could have sent it in beforehand; in fact, I would have had far more reason to do so then either you or tarballs. So why are you attacking me for this and defending him? Is it just because I'm voting you?

[Hero764]

Eh? IAAU made an argument that makes both me, Tarballs, and you look bad. I actually agreed that the argument was logical, as I made clear, although I obviously know it dosn't apply to me. What more do you expect me to say about it?

Maybe show how IAAU's statements didn't really work? I dunno, I'm not here to defend you.

I actually did defend myself later, if you notice, in post 355. Nonetheless, Iam made an arguemnt in the form of "people who do X are more likely to be scum", and I agree with the arguemnt, even though I did X and I am town.

Saying something that you can't prove isn't really defending yourself.

And by agreeing with his argument you were saying that while you shouldn't be suspected for those reasons, Tarballs and Caboose could. It doesn't make any sense.

No, my logic is not. Of course it increses my chances of being scum; it certanly dosn't increase them to 100%, and I am, in fact, town, but that dosn't actually invalidate the argument.

Again, if inactivity is the case for the no kill, and I'm being suspected because Caboose wasn't apparently a part of the game at that time(even though IAAU pointed out that he was active on the site during that time), then you, being the only logical partner for me in this case, should suspect yourself.

If "People who do X are more likely to be scum then people who do not do X", that argument may very well be correct even though I did X and am town. You're trying to find a contradiction where none exists.

What?

I also find it interesting you're defending Tarballs here and attacking me. Your defense of Tarballs seems to be "He could have gotten the night choice in; after all, he was around 5 hours before night started." Well, sure, since the mod apparenlty accepts night choices sent in before night starts if you know you'll be away, he could have, if he knew he was going to be gone for the entire night. I did know I was going to be away for a week, so therefore I also could have sent it in beforehand; in fact, I would have had far more reason to do so then either you or tarballs. So why are you attacking me for this and defending him? Is it just because I'm voting you?

1) Tarballs posted on this site during the night(5 hours before daybreak), that's why if he's my scum partner he could've easily sent in a night kill.
2) I'm attacking you for suspecting me when the exact same logic makes you my scum partner. For using illogical reasoning to vote for me. I would be doing the same thing if you had attacked anyone else. So no, its not because you are voting for me.

[Yosarian2]

Eh? IAAU made an argument that makes both me, Tarballs, and you look bad. I actually agreed that the argument was logical, as I made clear, although I obviously know it dosn't apply to me. What more do you expect me to say about it?

Maybe show how IAAU's statements didn't really work?

But they do, more or less. In fact, that's part of the reason I think you're scum.

I actually did defend myself later, if you notice, in post 355. Nonetheless, Iam made an arguemnt in the form of "people who do X are more likely to be scum", and I agree with the arguemnt, even though I did X and I am town.

Saying something that you can't prove isn't really defending yourself.

Sure, I can prove it. If you don't believe me, ask the mod the same hypothetical question yourself. And I can also certanly prove that I knew I was going to be away for the entire time; there's a whole thread on GD about it, in fact. What part of it, exactally, are you saying I can't prove?

And by agreeing with his argument you were saying that while you shouldn't be suspected for those reasons, Tarballs and Caboose could. It doesn't make any sense.

Again, I never said that. I did, and do, expect to be suspected because I wasn't around. People who suspect me for that reason would be wrong, but that dosn't mean the logic isn't sound.

No, my logic is not. Of course it increses my chances of being scum; it certanly dosn't increase them to 100%, and I am, in fact, town, but that dosn't actually invalidate the argument.

Again, if inactivity is the case for the no kill, and I'm being suspected because Caboose wasn't apparently a part of the game at that time(even though IAAU pointed out that he was active on the site during that time), then you, being the only logical partner for me in this case, should suspect yourself.

...

I should suspect myself?

Confirm vote:Hero

I'm hardly the "only logical partner". Neither Caboose (the person you replaced) nor Tar posted anywhere on the site during the entire night, and, as I've pointed out multiple times, if one person out of a 2 member scum team isn't online, then it will increase the odds of them failing to get a kill in.

Why are you completly ignoring what I say, Hero, and just responding with non-sequetors like "You are my only logical partner" and "You should suspect yourself"?

If "People who do X are more likely to be scum then people who do not do X", that argument may very well be correct even though I did X and am town. You're trying to find a contradiction where none exists.

What?

Theory: People who are not around at night when a kill is missed are more likely to be scum.

Fact (from my point of view, at least): I was not around at night, and I am town.

If you think about it, that fact DOES NOT DISPROVE that theory, because that theory just said that people who were not around ARE MORE LIKELY to be scum, not that they ALL MUST BE scum. Do you really not understand the distinction here?

I also find it interesting you're defending Tarballs here and attacking me. Your defense of Tarballs seems to be "He could have gotten the night choice in; after all, he was around 5 hours before night started." Well, sure, since the mod apparenlty accepts night choices sent in before night starts if you know you'll be away, he could have, if he knew he was going to be gone for the entire night. I did know I was going to be away for a week, so therefore I also could have sent it in beforehand; in fact, I would have had far more reason to do so then either you or tarballs. So why are you attacking me for this and defending him? Is it just because I'm voting you?

1) Tarballs posted on this site during the night(5 hours before daybreak), that's why if he's my scum partner he could've easily sent in a night kill.

So, you're annoyed that he forgot to send it in, apparently?

2) I'm attacking you for suspecting me when the exact same logic makes you my scum partner. For using illogical reasoning to vote for me. I would be doing the same thing if you had attacked anyone else. So no, its not because you are voting for me.

No, it does not. How many times do I have to explain this here?

[Hero764]

Sure, I can prove it. If you don't believe me, ask the mod the same hypothetical question yourself. And I can also certanly prove that I knew I was going to be away for the entire time; there's a whole thread on GD about it, in fact. What part of it, exactally, are you saying I can't prove?

You don't know what I'm talking about? You're the one who pointed it out for me:

For the record, I was also on briefly a few times during the bash, on Ether's laptop which she brought, and I would have been able to send in a nightkill if I had been scum. I didn't post anything while I got on, though, so I can't prove tat either.

Again, I never said that. I did, and do, expect to be suspected because I wasn't around. People who suspect me for that reason would be wrong, but that dosn't mean the logic isn't sound.

Aight.

...

I should suspect myself?

Don't you just love misreps? Read closely: You would be forced to suspect yourself ONLY if you continue using this logic.

Confirm vote:Hero

I'm hardly the "only logical partner". Neither Caboose (the person you replaced) nor Tar posted anywhere on the site during the entire night, and, as I've pointed out multiple times,

if one person out of a 2 member scum team isn't online, then it will increase the odds of them failing to get a kill in.

Ok:
1) Caboose is me, he can't be my partner.
2) Tarballs did post, 5 hours before daybreak.
3) You didn't post, so yes you would be the only logical partner.
4) Bolded makes absolutely no sense. Only one werewolf needs to be present in order to send in the night kill. Please show how one being absent decreases the likelihood of a night kill being sent in. If anything it would INCREASE the chance since there wouldn't be a second person for the first one to argue with.

Using more faulty logic to try and get me lynched. Scummy.

Why are you completly ignoring what I say, Hero, and just responding with non-sequetors like "You are my only logical partner" and "You should suspect yourself"?

I'm not. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that Tarballs was present during the night phase. Do you even know what this argument is about?

Theory: People who are not around at night when a kill is missed are more likely to be scum.

Fact (from my point of view, at least): I was not around at night, and I am town.

If you think about it, that fact DOES NOT DISPROVE that theory, because that theory just said that people who were not around ARE MORE LIKELY to be scum, not that they ALL MUST BE scum. Do you really not understand the distinction here?

I understand what you are saying, but only you and me were absent during the night phase, so based on this logic that inactivity caused the werewolves to have no kill automatically makes you scum with me. The fact that you would agree with that logic anyways is why I attacked you.

So, you're annoyed that he forgot to send it in, apparently?

Way to avoid responding.

No, it does not. How many times do I have to explain this here?

Yes it does. How many times do I have to explain this here?

[Wulfy]

Hm...
Might be that new feeling Hero still has attached, but his play is just interesting...

I can't even fault what he is saying cause it is all pretty much the truth. Yos' only points against him is taking abstract points Hero makes and taking them literally.

On the other hand, this could be two scum partners bickering?

Hm... let me think...
4T 2W 1M
I think Tarballs is wolf. Ideally, this would lead to
3T 1W 1M
His likely partner would be Caboose/Hero
3T 0W 1M
Again, ideal. This should make weeding out the last mafia member a piece of cake. And that assumes Wolf doesn't strike down the last mafia member for us. I have a few suspicions on who this person is, but for now, I'll continue to focus on the wolf.

So, the other option is...
Tarballs is mafia or town. For worst case purposes, I will just guess that he is town if not wolf.
So...
2T 2W 1M
This is less than ideal..but mafia will definitely assist us. Let us say we hit wolf to avoid loss.
If Wolves hit mafia, they win. If not, they lose. So that last wolf will never unleash an attack that night.
2T 1W 1M
If we hit anyone other than wolf, we lose.

The other option would be we lynch a mafia today:
3T 2W
which is lylo...


Okay, so, given the above, I am okay with the following plan based on my suspicions:

lynching Caboose/Tarballs today. I prefer the former at the moment. Also, Caboose's replacement, Hero, seems fairly town to me at the moment... based on the circumstance of absentees, he is suspicious. If Tarballs is wolf, either Yos2 or Caboose are his likely partner. Hero has pointed out that Yos2 is his most likely partner. Despite the wifom involved, logic states that due to the no kill, Yos2 is also a likely candidate for a scum buddy with either one of Tarballs and Caboose.

So, my question is reduced to who among Tarballs, Caboose, and Yos2 is innocent assuming two of them are guilty.

Tarballs/Caboose
Yos2/either

At the moment, my current plan is this:
Lynch Tarballs. If town/mafia, lynch Caboose. If Caboose is a wolf, then lynch Yos2.
Lynch tarballs. If Wolf, lynch Yos2. if wolves are still alive, lynch Caboose.

OR

Lynch Caboose. If town/mafia, lynch Tarballs. If Tarballs is wolf, lynch Yos2.
Lynch Caboose. If wolf, lynch Yos2. If wolves are still alive, lynch Tarballs.

basically, my plan is the same for both of them.

I am about 80% sure 2/3 of them is scum. I am about 70% that those 2 scum are wolves.

Thoughts anyone?

[Hero764]

Wulfy: Do you have any other reasons for suspecting me other than the no kill?

[iamausername]

Vote: Tarballs

me, Sotty, Wulfy, Hero. I do believe that is a hammer.

[Yosarian2]

Sure, I can prove it. If you don't believe me, ask the mod the same hypothetical question yourself. And I can also certanly prove that I knew I was going to be away for the entire time; there's a whole thread on GD about it, in fact. What part of it, exactally, are you saying I can't prove?

You don't know what I'm talking about? You're the one who pointed it out for me:

For the record, I was also on briefly a few times during the bash, on Ether's laptop which she brought, and I would have been able to send in a nightkill if I had been scum. I didn't post anything while I got on, though, so I can't prove tat either.

Ah. I was actually talking about post 355, not 335. I wouldn't really consider that a defense.

Don't you just love misreps? Read closely: You would be forced to suspect yourself ONLY if you continue using this logic.

Again, no, no I don't.

1) Caboose is me, he can't be my partner.
2) Tarballs did post, 5 hours before daybreak.

Ok.

3) You didn't post, so yes you would be the only logical partner.

Only if I was trying to argue that both partners must have been away all night, WHICH I NEVER DID. Stop trying to put other people's words into my mouth.

4) Bolded makes absolutely no sense. Only one werewolf needs to be present in order to send in the night kill. Please show how one being absent decreases the likelihood of a night kill being sent in. If anything it would INCREASE the chance since there wouldn't be a second person for the first one to argue with.

Ok, let me explain this, because again, I've seen this happen. Let's say that Caboose sent in the nightkill night 1 and night 2. Let's also say, just for the sake of argument, that he and his partner didn't talk much. If his partner wasn't aware Caboose was gone night 3, then there's a pretty high chance that the nightkill might just not get sent in.

Again, i've seen it happen before.

Using more faulty logic to try and get me lynched. Scummy.

Nothing faulty about my logic at all.

[Hero764]

Ah. I was actually talking about post 355, not 335. I wouldn't really consider that a defense.

I gotcha. Doesn't that logic apply to Caboose(me) as well?

Only if I was trying to argue that both partners must have been away all night, WHICH I NEVER DID. Stop trying to put other people's words into my mouth.

I wasn't. I using the only logical expansion of your argument.

Ok, let me explain this, because again, I've seen this happen. Let's say that Caboose sent in the nightkill night 1 and night 2. Let's also say, just for the sake of argument, that he and his partner didn't talk much. If his partner wasn't aware Caboose was gone night 3, then there's a pretty high chance that the nightkill might just not get sent in.

You think that's a likely scenario? I doubt that would happen very often, and should hardly be used as justification for a vote, especially on day 4 when we are potentially one lynch away from lylo.

IAAU: Crap, for some reason I thought it was 5 to lynch. Anyways, I doubt the mod should mind us talking since he didn't "officially" declare the end of the day.

[Datadanne]

Weeeee!

Tarballs -

Pro-Town Townie

- Was pushed off the cliffs day 4.

Night actions due 72 hours.

[Tarballs]

Bah! Go mod!

[Datadanne]

Awesome.

[Datadanne]

There was blood.
There was no head.
There was no him.

Sotty7 -

Pro-Mafia Goon

- Bled to death then was decapitated night 4.

Ladies and gentlemen....

I present to you....

M

iss L

Y

nch &

LO

se

[OhGodMyLife]

Yosarian is the common denominator of all the wolf teams that I think make sense. Still pretty much sure that iamausername is town. Gonna re read.

[Wulfy]

OGML, where's the support on that claim?

Also, I am [fake]Vote Hero[/fake] as I promised. If one wasn't scum, the other has at least a 60% chance of being wolf.

I understand that Yos2 makes a logical common denominator, but is he a better lynch than Hero? Or do you think that the lack of a kill was an attempt by wolves to shift blame on the least active of this game's players? Also possible: Do you think Yos2 is just as likely to be the inactive wolf as is Hero? Or does it not even factor into your equation?