Open 143: Jungle Republic (Game Over!) before 787

[Empking]

AA23, I'm still a bit uncertain why you keep saying "THERE IS NO CASE ON EMPKING THAT ANYONE HAS PRESENTED RAWROMGNOMNOMNOM" when I have posted the following a number of times, and you refuse to acknowledge it. I will no longer respond to you with anything but the attached until you give it some serious thought. I really should spend my time and energy addressing everyone else, as you make it increasingly clear you have no desire to consider other options, but I'm troubled by the fact that I think everyone else (save Khamisa, who apparently agrees with me) is scum.

I'm sorry, you keep saying this, but you haven't addressed what people have said:

3. Dej also persued Hewitt. He did so top of the day. I don't think Emp or Hewitt are his partners.

Can you point out to me where Dejkha pursued Empking with any sense of real pursuit?

It seems to me that dejkha was blowing a lot of smoke without actually pushing for an Empking lynch - it looks more like he

wanted to look like he'd lynch Empking

more than he actually wanted to lynch Empking. Sotty7 rightly noted this:

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

...

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

dejkha repeatedly goes out of his way to say both that (a) he would lynch Empking, and (b) Empking is not likelier to be scum than any other player. It seems to me that he's looking as though he's hostile to Empking, while trying to push others away from the wagon by assering that Empking isn't any likelier to be scum. That makes

crazy good sense as partner play

.

When it comes down to actually trying to lynch Empking, Percy has to goad dejkha into voting him. Furthermore, dejkha jumps off the Empking vote the moment Percy does.

His excuse is that it's because an empking lynch didn't otherwise have a chance, but that doesn't seem to have stopped him from making votes before.

Can you address this? I think this is the heart of the Empking line of thought. You keep insisting that no evidence has been brought - are you suggesting that the quoted text here is factually incorrect, have you overlooked it, or is it something else? I'm terribly confused.

---

Empking, I will answer your question a bit later when I have some time. (I must admit I'm not in a terrible hurry to convince you, but I will indeed answer you.)

But I need it to try and convince you.

Vote Count

Sotty7 3 - AA23, hewitt, Empking
Empking 3 - Khamisa, Thesp, Sotty7

Sotty7 is -1
Empking is -1

[AA23]

Thesp - that little edit of yours -

before you go looking rather silly: do you want to do the math on what happens if there is NO mislynch? If we DO lynch the werewolf?

Werewolf getting lynched means 3/2 town over scum tomorrow with no NK's.

Pretty good situation seeing as you're the runner up Mafiascum that I'm immediately voting.

[Thesp]

Thesp - that little edit of yours -

before you go looking rather silly: do you want to do the math on what happens if there is NO mislynch? If we DO lynch the werewolf?

Werewolf getting lynched means 3/2 town over scum tomorrow with no NK's.

Pretty good situation seeing as you're the runner up Mafiascum that I'm immediately voting.

Lynching the werewolf puts us in Lynch or Lose. (Yes, I have done the math.) Lynching a mafia puts us in lynch or lose, regardless of who the nightkill hits. Lynching a townie puts us in lynch or lose if the nightkill hits mafia (whom the wolf would be gunning for).

Also,

I'm sorry, you keep saying this, but you haven't addressed what people have said:

3. Dej also persued Hewitt. He did so top of the day. I don't think Emp or Hewitt are his partners.

Can you point out to me where Dejkha pursued Empking with any sense of real pursuit?

It seems to me that dejkha was blowing a lot of smoke without actually pushing for an Empking lynch - it looks more like he

wanted to look like he'd lynch Empking

more than he actually wanted to lynch Empking. Sotty7 rightly noted this:

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

...

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

dejkha repeatedly goes out of his way to say both that (a) he would lynch Empking, and (b) Empking is not likelier to be scum than any other player. It seems to me that he's looking as though he's hostile to Empking, while trying to push others away from the wagon by assering that Empking isn't any likelier to be scum. That makes

crazy good sense as partner play

.

When it comes down to actually trying to lynch Empking, Percy has to goad dejkha into voting him. Furthermore, dejkha jumps off the Empking vote the moment Percy does.

His excuse is that it's because an empking lynch didn't otherwise have a chance, but that doesn't seem to have stopped him from making votes before.

Can you address this? I think this is the heart of the Empking line of thought. You keep insisting that no evidence has been brought - are you suggesting that the quoted text here is factually incorrect, have you overlooked it, or is it something else? I'm terribly confused.

[hewitt]

I think this is going to become a stalemate pretty damn quickly.

[AA23]

This is the stalemate.

They want this - - - they want someone to get ansy and say "fuck it" and move to kill Emp or something to get a move on.

There is no stronger case! Nothing has been clearly stated - - nothing has been stronger than the Mix(Sotty) case - - the guy had a scummy hammer, embarrassed imself hypocritically, lied repeatedly, lurked, bailed, and was constantly defended by a wolf who PASSIONATELY

hated

(read that word again) HATED "lying", yet chose to not give a shit and insist on his innocence?

Thesp had a vote ready for Sotty without even giving a shit what he had to say for himself at the top of last day - - every person here has suspected him at one time or another - - hell, Sotty even admitted we have every reason to think what we think, and could only defend it with appeals to emotion and WIFOM.

I refuse to believe Thesp would go this whole game acting like he's logical and calculated, and suddenly throw away a case like this for something as weak as broad speculation on Emp - - he's striking me as VERY mafiascum.

So now we have 3 on an Emp wagon and need only one to come over.

Who will it be? Kham? The potential scum who's been playing it safe by popping by and posting little content now and again? Thesp, wo under a veil of fake calculation and intellect has in reality also played it safe and constantly redirects and dodges questions and attention from him? (The two mafiascum, in other words)

Or lastly Sotty. The person who would Die.

HMMMMMMMM - not easy.

Yeah. Stalemate.

[Thesp]

This is the stalemate.

They want this - - - they want someone to get ansy and say "f*** it" and move to kill

Emp

Sotty7 or something to get a move on.

Fixed for you.

Also,

I'm sorry, you keep saying this, but you haven't addressed what people have said:

3. Dej also persued Hewitt. He did so top of the day. I don't think Emp or Hewitt are his partners.

Can you point out to me where Dejkha pursued Empking with any sense of real pursuit?

It seems to me that dejkha was blowing a lot of smoke without actually pushing for an Empking lynch - it looks more like he

wanted to look like he'd lynch Empking

more than he actually wanted to lynch Empking. Sotty7 rightly noted this:

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

...

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

dejkha repeatedly goes out of his way to say both that (a) he would lynch Empking, and (b) Empking is not likelier to be scum than any other player. It seems to me that he's looking as though he's hostile to Empking, while trying to push others away from the wagon by assering that Empking isn't any likelier to be scum. That makes

crazy good sense as partner play

.

When it comes down to actually trying to lynch Empking, Percy has to goad dejkha into voting him. Furthermore, dejkha jumps off the Empking vote the moment Percy does.

His excuse is that it's because an empking lynch didn't otherwise have a chance, but that doesn't seem to have stopped him from making votes before.

Can you address this? I think this is the heart of the Empking line of thought. You keep insisting that no evidence has been brought - are you suggesting that the quoted text here is factually incorrect, have you overlooked it, or is it something else? I'm terribly confused.

[Thesp]

This is the stalemate.

They want this - - - they want someone to get ansy and say "f*** it" and move to kill

Emp

Sotty7 or something to get a move on.

Fixed for you.

Also,

I'm sorry, you keep saying this, but you haven't addressed what people have said:

3. Dej also persued Hewitt. He did so top of the day. I don't think Emp or Hewitt are his partners.

Can you point out to me where Dejkha pursued Empking with any sense of real pursuit?

It seems to me that dejkha was blowing a lot of smoke without actually pushing for an Empking lynch - it looks more like he

wanted to look like he'd lynch Empking

more than he actually wanted to lynch Empking. Sotty7 rightly noted this:

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

...

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

dejkha repeatedly goes out of his way to say both that (a) he would lynch Empking, and (b) Empking is not likelier to be scum than any other player. It seems to me that he's looking as though he's hostile to Empking, while trying to push others away from the wagon by assering that Empking isn't any likelier to be scum. That makes

crazy good sense as partner play

.

When it comes down to actually trying to lynch Empking, Percy has to goad dejkha into voting him. Furthermore, dejkha jumps off the Empking vote the moment Percy does.

His excuse is that it's because an empking lynch didn't otherwise have a chance, but that doesn't seem to have stopped him from making votes before.

Can you address this? I think this is the heart of the Empking line of thought. You keep insisting that no evidence has been brought - are you suggesting that the quoted text here is factually incorrect, have you overlooked it, or is it something else? I'm terribly confused.

[Thesp]

Sorry for the double-post - the forum's acting a bit odd for me this morning.

[Empking]

Thesp if you're mafia and not with Sotty, you should vote soctty.

[Thesp]

Thesp if you're mafia and not with Sotty, you should vote soctty.

Even if I was mafia, I'm not sure I should trust your advice. (Any particular reason the advice is specific to me being mafia as opposed to being a wolf?)

I think there's a reasonable chance Sotty7 is scum; I think there's a more reasonable chance you are specifically a wolf with dejkha. I'm a little surprised there isn't even consideration of this possiblity by AA23, and that hewitt is suddenly so resolute about it. I'm also given a little pause by the fact that the other two people on the Sotty7 wagon are people I suspect as being scum.

I want to hear more from hewitt. There's a lot to talk about, hewitt, and I don't think you've done very much lately. I'm tired of hearing from just myself and AA23.

[Empking]

Thesp if you're mafia and not with Sotty, you should vote soctty.

Even if I was mafia, I'm not sure I should trust your advice. (Any particular reason the advice is specific to me being mafia as opposed to being a wolf?)

As the mafia has less to lose.

Thesp, are you suspicious of me because Djhka reacted to me like Dejhka always reacts with me. Or that Dejhka was leaving me alive because I suck really bad?

[Thesp]

Thesp if you're mafia and not with Sotty, you should vote soctty.

Even if I was mafia, I'm not sure I should trust your advice. (Any particular reason the advice is specific to me being mafia as opposed to being a wolf?)

As the mafia has less to lose.

Thesp, are you suspicious of me because Djhka reacted to me like Dejhka always reacts with me. Or that Dejhka was leaving me alive because I suck really bad?

Dejkha made a big deal of saying he wanted to lynch you, but made no actual significant movement towards you. When given the opportunity, he had to be

pushed

into voting for you. The moment he could plausibly do so (when Percy unvoted), he left the wagon. These actions are

incredibly consistent

with how partners interact in-thread - they want to appear as though they are willing to lynch their partner scum, while in reality it is the last thing they want to do.

There are other things that give me great concern about you in the past couple of days, including your lack of hunting/participation when suspicion and concern largely came off you, and your bizarre entry into today attacking AA23 for bussing (which I cannot in my wildest dreams fathom) which appears to be testing the waters as to who is lynchable and who is not. It is Percy's interaction with you specifically, however, that makes me think you're scum with him.

(AA23 has mentioned that dejkha aggressively opposed the Mixologist/Sotty7 wagon, which I concur with. However, in my experience, scum rarely aggressively oppose the lynch of their partners, preferring to redirect attention or offhandedly act dismissive of the wagon.)

Can you talk to me about the Sotty7/Mixologist wagon, Empking or hewitt? It appears AA23 and I must agree to disagree about it, as we think different things indicate scum relationships.

[Empking's Alt]

Thesp if you're mafia and not with Sotty, you should vote soctty.

Even if I was mafia, I'm not sure I should trust your advice. (Any particular reason the advice is specific to me being mafia as opposed to being a wolf?)

As the mafia has less to lose.

Thesp, are you suspicious of me because Djhka reacted to me like Dejhka always reacts with me. Or that Dejhka was leaving me alive because I suck really bad?

Dejkha made a big deal of saying he wanted to lynch you, but made no actual significant movement towards you. When given the opportunity, he had to be

pushed

into voting for you. The moment he could plausibly do so (when Percy unvoted), he left the wagon. These actions are

incredibly consistent

with how partners interact in-thread - they want to appear as though they are willing to lynch their partner scum, while in reality it is the last thing they want to do.

Its even more consistent to how Dejkha plays. (Plus Dejkha thinks I suck so badly he'd probably go out of his was to bus me so I wouldn't reveal we were scum together.)

[Thesp]

Can you point me to any similar examples? I'd be happy to see them.

[Empking]

Open 134 - Dejkha has support so he sticks on me.

Mini 757 - Dejkha has no support so he lreaves me.

That's exactly what happened this game apart from both situations came up (support/No Support) instead of just one.

[Thesp]

I'll try to take some time this evening to read through these games. (It may be this weekend before I can get to them, but we'll see.)

[AA23]

Oh well that explains a lot, Thesp (not joking)

Dejkha made it clear on more than one occasion that he was

saving

the Emp lynch.

He further made it clear that he wouldn't start a wagon unless he felt he'd get support/people would hop on as well (he wanted easy wagons).
--------------------
There are quotations of him saying that if you need, but I assure you that's the reason he didn't full throttle it to Emp.

hence - he was still quite characteristic toward him and was only saving him as a tool for a mislynch.
---------------------

And winking about "even if you were mafia", how would killing sotty help you? - - The answer is that it wouldn't. Sotty is the remaining wolf. Having one more NK benefits the Mafia.

If we eliminate the NK, there is an inevitable lylo ahead.

If the NK is kept (as the mafia wants, through keeping the wolf, sotty, alive) - they not only have the same odds for a lylo (if mafia gets NK's) - but they have a greater percentage of flat out having the win in two other scenario's if a towny is lynched or there is no NK chosen.

Simply put - -

Mafia letting wolf die = one road to lylo

Mafia letting wolf live = NK on town/scum/no NK = 3 roads = lylo, mafia win, mafia win.

You're bettering your chances letting wolf live.

But in trying to do so - you've given yourself away as scum.

[Thesp]

There are quotations of him saying that if you need, but I assure you that's the reason he didn't full throttle it to Emp.

I'm not sure how you can assure me of that. Furthermore, if he's "saving" the wagon, it looks like he wants to be anti-Empking, without actually threatening Empking. This fits perfectly into them being partners.

And winking about "even if you were mafia", how would killing sotty help you? - - The answer is that it wouldn't. Sotty is the remaining wolf. Having one more NK benefits the Mafia.

I disagree with this, quite strongly. Mafia can easily (and I would argue more probably) lose the game

without being lynched

if there's still a nightkill. Same for the town.

It is in the town and the mafia's best interest to eliminate the last wolf.

The only power the mafia has to eliminate its enemies is the lynch. Same for the town. This is the prime advantage the werewolves have, is that they can also eliminate its enemies independent of the town.

Neither the town nor the mafia want the werewolf alive anymore.

I would even argue that the mafia

especially

want the werewolf dead, because at this point, the werewolf is actively trying to nightkill them over townies! As long as the werewolf lives, both/either side can lose through no volition of its own.

AA23, you've implied it with your theories, but never by confirming elsewise - do you think Empking is town?

[AA23]

I feel that Empking is not the werewolf.

I feel werewolf is the priority lync for today.

All evidence strongly suggests that Mix(Sotty) is Dej's partner.

My vote stays on him.
------------------------------

Nice try with softening the blow for tomorrow. The thing that outted you as scum was the fact that you were against the wolf lynch (as mafia wants to be) - - I think you're tendering the deal - - I think you're trying to soften the platform so you can switch to the Sotty wagon with no consequence.

And you find it hard for me to assure you? Would it be easier for you to read, then? Because he said all of those things. He was saving Emp's lynch for later and only cared for a wagon that people would pile on/make easy.

Furthermore, if he's "saving" the wagon,

it looks like he wants to be

anti-Empking, without actually threatening Empking

. This fits perfectly into them being partners.

Dej was:

Anti- lying, lurking, scum

(seemingly, now that we know otherwise)

he admitted that Mix(Sotty) (the person everyone including you have suspected and voted for) was all of these things.

That would make him Anti-Mix(Sotty), no?

So wait....if Dej was Anti-Mix(Sotty)....and he never investigated him....and never voted him....and never voiced supsicions of him...and PASSIONATELY to his death defended and was against the wagon...

Well, oh my! thesp! In your own words: This fits perfectly into them being partners!!

[Thesp]

I feel that Empking is not the werewolf.

I feel werewolf is the priority lync for today.

I agree with you that we should try to lynch the werewolf today, I disagree with you as to who the werewolf is.

You've still dodged the question, though - do you think Empking is a townie?

I think we have to agree to disagree about some things - I think scum rarely actively oppose the lynch of their partners, and while we agree that dejkha actively opposed the Sotty7/Mixologist lynch, you seem to think this is normative for scum to act this way towards their partners. On this, I think you are incorrect.

I think you're trying to soften the platform so you can switch to the Sotty wagon with no consequence.

It looks to me that you're not trying to persuade me, you're just content to lob volleys at me. After all, you seem to be putting me in a scenario where if I stay I'm scum, but if I switch I'm scum, no?

[AA23]

There is no dodging the question for me - - Emp is not the wolf.

Today is a day to exhaust energy and all efforts in finding the wolf. If I had evidence suggesting Emp was scum, I would have presented it.
----------

And yes, you do strike me as scum no matter what at this point. The reason I'm banging my head against the wall is because scum have a better chance defending themselves tomorrow when the wolf is out of the way (IMO) - - - doing it today is tedious and risks hurting the town by letting Mix(Sotty) slip through our fingers yet again.

---------

And you need to make a decision on whether you think

distancing

is a valid point to determine Dej's partner - - you seem to like the idea when you attach it to Emp, and call me out on it being inconclusive when I attach it to Mix/Sotty.

Even without the distancing point - - I have more of a case. Mix(Sotty)'s guilt through scummy actions is more than enough to outweigh the Emp case.

I think the sotty lynch is the only way out of this debacle - - - I'm personally voting you tomorrow because I think you're mafia, but if you convince the majority it's someone else, by all means.

I just think that the battle between Sotty/Emp lynch was never really a battle at all - just a distraction to the inevitably stronger lynch (Sotty).

I feel very confident he's the wolf, Thesp - and if you can prove me wrong about you tomorrow, please do it, because I wouldn't mind believing you're town - - but the struggle to get you to see blunt reason like this? seeing Sotty as the obvious choice? It makes me nervous about you.

[Thesp]

There is no dodging the question for me - - Emp is not the wolf.

That

is

dodging the question - do you think he's scum? (You've already made it fairly obvious that you think he's not the werewolf.)

[AA23]

You seem to be missing every point being made and every observation stated.

I have nothing to determine he is definately town, I have nothing to determine he is definately scum - - I am only confident he is not wolf because Sotty is wolf - - and I am concerned about the wolf today.

If you indeed agree that it is important we get the wolf toay - - why is it that in addition to ignoring/avoiding the stronger case of Mix(Sotty) - you insist on hurting the town by distracting us?

You keep pushing this. You keep trying to turn this into a mafiascum hunt instead of a wolf hunt. I find that suspicious.

Who do you think is wolf and why?
What are your thoughts on the Sotty case being heavier and more SUBSTANTIAL than any other case that might be out there (as in, I haven't seen a valid, well organized, more substantial case yet)
What IS your position on using "distancing" as a valid point of evidence in finding Dej's partner? (you seem to flip flop to your own convenience)
Why agree wolf is priority and immediately avlid acknowledging the bulk of my posts in an effort to distract and draw attention to Emp and the idea of him being mafia?

**Are you so desperate to avoid the wolf lynch that you will try to fit Emp into any category of "lynchable material" you can?

Your entire "case" (which we STILL haven't seen) - is based on the idea that Emp is guilty by association/relationship to Dej, yes? That would make him Wolf, and that's the ONLY reason you're not even considering my stronger appeals about Sotty being more appropriate.

I think you know that Sotty flipping wolf will build town confidence in my theories, and therein kill you, and then boom - town wins.

So now you DEFINATELY can't have Sotty revealed as wolf. You need the benefit of the odds with a NK for one more night, you need me to not have town confidence - - so you try to now fit Emp from wolf, to scum?

WHERE IS YOUR EVIDENCE?

You're all over the place.

It's like you're scrambling.

Grasping at straws.

It won't last.

Try again, Thesp.

[Thesp]

For a moment, I thought you were reading what I was saying. I am disappointed that this appears not to be the case. (Notably, I'm surprised you keep saying I haven't brought forth a case on Empking.)

It's clear we disagree on some fundamental tells. Yelling back and forth about them won't help. (I need to remind myself of this.)

I believe I owe Empking an answer to something previous, but it will have to wait a little bit - I want to devote some serious time to it that I likely won't have until the weekend. I'm going to try and actively ignore AA23 for a while, as I think our back-and-forth is actually damaging to other players' abilities to read the game well.

/ignore AA23

I particularly want to hear more from hewitt.

[hewitt]

It's a stalemate now. That's my opinion. I think it's pretty well figured out and the mafia are smart enough to not fall for the town's trap.

And here's how, assuming this is true then the stalemate makes sense and everything about why Sotty7 isn't gaining a fourth vote makes sense.

Sotty7 is the werewolf. He's got three votes on him from the town players, myself, AA23, and Empking. Which leaves Khamisa and Thesp as the mafia. If one of the mafia players vote Sotty7 they automatically lose because they have no nightkills and we will lynch them the next two days.