Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[Budja]

I strongly recommend that you don't pick the PGO.

[Budja]

I agree with goat.

Roleblocker is better than tracker, stopping a mafia kill & very probably catching scum > catching scum.

The only possible negative is that the mafia

could

no kill to mislead us.

[Budja]

I thought framer was just for cops? I'm not sure wha the undertaker role is .

[Budja]

@Adel, this post was from

before

we got our roles/alignments.

[Budja]

^ This. Adel's plan seems pretty much universally agreed with now. Lets just do this.

[Budja]

vote: Ren Hoek

Started suspicion onto the creative director for a bad reason (saying random picks are bad/scummy). The scum would certainly want the director (if not scum) removed so this feels a little bad to me.

[Budja]

Nice OMGUS. Now why don't you tell me

why

my logic fails.

[Budja]

Scum doesn't stick their necks out in broad daylight to work wagons on players that are threatening or inconvenient. They shut up about it during the day, and nightkill them. Right there, you "logic" breaks down.

Well actually they do sometimes. If scum think they can get away with making a pro-town looking player/role suspicious, they could very well do it.
You make a bad assumption.

Scotmany was neither threat nor inconvenience to scum. Your "logic" takes another hit.

Scot is the creative director, the most important game role. Without a creative director, we have no PR's (yes, the CEO can recruit but that is a one-time thing). The whole purpose of the bus-driver plan is to make sure he lives.

So attacking the creative director like you did over such a minor thing looks suss.

Occam's razor suggests very strongly that I am a paranoid townie. To suggest otherwise, as you have, is scummy.

Occam's razor states that the hypothesis with the fewest assumption's is the most likely truth. Looked at individually, everyone is town by Occum's razor as the probability of a given player being town is reasonably high.
This is a poor excuse to suspect those who suspect you.

[Budja]

Selfvote proves nothing and is simply anti-town here. L-1 I think BTW.

[Budja]

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

[Budja]

I have a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek is town. Everyone voting for him needs to explain what they think about the self-vote.

There is no reason why anyone voting for Ren should change their mind because of the self vote. It is a null tell; it does not prove he is town, nore does it prove that he is scum.

I'm not really buying the whole thing against fl right now.

QFT

[Budja]

I have commented (at least briefly) on every wagon before save the sens wagon.

Ren: Same case as before. Also reacted badly and began OMGUSing -> scummy. Self-vote is null.

Scummy

FL: Surprised by Seraphim's death. I see this as null. I stand by my previous statement, FL probably failed to read properly, connect the dots. Also I see no (good) reason for scum to purposely act like this.

Neutral

Sens: Misrep of FL's earlier post. Yos's 355 clearly shows this. Sticking to his point which is a little town but fails to answer Ren's question on why he likes Adel's case (main thing I dislike).

Scummy

Ren is still #1.

[Budja]

I'm sorry Ren, I was under the impression that answering questions is good. Thanks for the heads up[/sarcasm]

Ren, asking question of players is

good

. If you wanted my view on Adel, you could have just asked me.

Adel has been scumhunting a lot and created the plan for PR's -> town read from me.

@All, have anyone played with Ren before. If so, is this usual behaviour for him?

[Budja]

Sens, it should be very clear to you where you are been accused of misrepping FL.
Look at Yosarian's post 355. You have clearly taken FL out of context, will you accept this and does it affect your opinion of FL?

[Budja]

This has already been asked but why scot? I can't see any point at all that you have made against him.

[Budja]

@Sens, what do you think of Yosarian2?

[Budja]

Calling me a lurker is a bit much isn't it? I asked Sens that question for a good reason.

@Adel, time to reveal your views?

[Budja]

Why didn't he lump Yos in?

Exactly you have a very simular attack, that what makes Sens vote look OMGUS to me.

[Budja]

OK then.

[Budja]

You disliked the suggested RB plan. See me,goat and FL as scummy.
I still think it had a potential advantage.

"I don't understand why people are so eager to go after your wagon..."
I really don't understand why you seem to dislike the Sens wagon.

I disagree with you and think that the vote on scot was OMGUS.

I see a lot of opinions but not a lot to back them up. I wouldn't mind some elaboration, mainly on your view of the Sens wagon.

[Budja]

Other thoughts:

I always thought the case on FL was not that strong and easily explained by poor reading. I can see no scum motivation for his surprise at Seraphim.

So the Sens wagon developed from the FL rather than distracting from it.
The FL case was weak, the Sens case is strong.

[Budja]

Theres not a lot to analyse there.
I am not that great at analysis anyway and rarely if ever manage to post long, dense posts.

[Budja]

Rarely posting and fairly poor analysis because I could not see anyone as very scummy.
Basically bad play that has had me lynched day 1 two games as scum.

I'm not entirely sure if it is my meta as I have played scum games without this but that was my first game as town where I felt I couldn't see anyone strongly as scum.

[Budja]

Now I can answer your questions but could you also post your opinions on Sens now or at tell me why not.

[Budja]

Yes, thats one of the games.

I had no suspicions. I left my random vote on for a long time and when finally questioned. I couldn't really come up with anything. There were a few scum-slips too but that's what I believe mainly lead to my lynch.

[Budja]

I think I defended a townie from a strong bandwagon which made people think they were town and I was a scum-defending-a-townie.

I am not going to read over that game again now to find more .

[Budja]

I had to do a bit of time conversion but I think it was 378?
So whats your point?

[Budja]

Nope .

[Budja]

@ckd, I asked sens that as he found scot scummy but not yosarian when they were both questioning him with similar ideas. Still no answer from him.

FL is now scummy with the knowledge of the busdrive. That would give a scum a good reason to be surprised.

Adel let me get this straight:

Scot is likely town (from Goat's busdrive)
FL looks scummy.
We lynch FL to keep scot (assuming we can protect him on future days) and lynch possible scum.

I guess I can agree with that.

unvote, vote FairieLord

[Budja]

The busdrive.

As a town player I was a little confused for a bit before understanding. FL could possibly have done the same thing.
However, the busdrive would have changed the scum's kill creating a want to feign surprise even if they knew about the busdrive as they would expect everyone to be as surprised as they are.

So a confused player is more likely to be scum.

So a null tell that has become scummy with this additional information.

I don't see FL is not scummy enough to lynch solely for that.

Since scot is likely town, removing possible scum FL which I believe Adel is saying and I can agree with this. It helps to protect an important role and could quite possibly hit scum.

[Budja]

agree.

[Budja]

@scot, I did say it wasn't scummy enough for a lynch. I still saw FL as less scummy than Ren or Sens, but still a good lynch because of Adel's plan.

@Ren, examples? I think I have been straightforward enough with my views.

[Budja]

I do try to be careful with my posting in any game Ren - editing and sometimes rewording my posts.

I don't agree with the arguments against Yosarian. His posts have almost always reflected my views.

I have seen no great reason to talk to TDC in the quicktopic as I am entirely uncertain of his role and see no reason to share information only with him when I could talk in the open.

Scum goat could easily have driven scot to seraphim and then have the mafia kill seraphim taking out scot. I see goat as likely to be town.

I would agree that Ren is largely cleared by the busdrive. However, before the bus was revealed Ren was not cleared and Goats post about Ren been cleared only makes sense with this extra knowledge.

I don't believe I have ever played with Sens before but his play still strikes me as scummy in this game and a meta argument doesn't convince me otherwise.

I agree that an Adel/Sens scumteam is highly unlikely.

Sorry about the disjointedness of this post. Its basically the current flow of my thoughts while reading this.

[Budja]

Vote: Sensfan

Scot is right, Sens's wagon did have no real momentum. People did say he was scummy but most stuck with the Ren wagon.
Since Ren is prob town (I'm leaning this way now), this makes the Sens wagon an even better choice IMO.

[Budja]

I already have stated my position on Sens. That was an additional point.
Also your wagon grew early then stagnated near a lynch. Sens's wagon never got of the ground at all as despite many people finding sens scummy, they found you more scummy.

[Budja]

I did a bit of a reread.

Rereading Yos, he comes across as very, very passive.
He usually makes reasonable, small points and summaries but hasn't actually done much with it.
He has no opinions of most players, Ren, Sens and Adel are the only three he has really commented on during my read.
He made a good case of misrepresentation on Sens in post 409 but failed to follow up on it at all which is what I dislike the most.
He easily slips right under the radar.

Yos looks scummy to me. I still think sens is scummy so no vote change. I would like to see Sens and Yos's opinions of each other as of now.

I am still not really seeing the case on Adel though.

[Budja]

Sorry for the lack of posting.
I promise to get a post out within 12hrs.

[Budja]

Alright, I've only skimmed but heres my impressions.

Adel's outburst: I agree it was null. Adel's switch to sens was odd but it fits with Adel's attitude. Still not happy to lynch.

TDC Death: Risky for scum but TDC was a good choice for a kill as he was null to most people. Not really a point against Yos or anyone, mafia taking a minor risk is reasonably likely IMO.

Volkan's PBPA: I assume you want me to comment on post 28. "Joining the dots" was the most reasonable explanation, with the busdrive scum being surprised was equally likely, especially with half-concentrating scum. I mainly was following Adel's plan which was sound enough and the busdrive pushed FL into a partly scummy position.

Case on Yos: I decided to reread Yos and Adel to see what made people see them as scummy. I saw Yos as scummy for said reasons.

I think there are some links between Sens and Yos.

-Yos may have partly "started" the Sens push but didn't follow up much on his initial strong ideas. I like Yos's push but despite containing a stong point, it feels oddly used. I read Yos as disagreeing/questioning Sens's views but not labelling them as scummy, anti-town, anything.

-Sens OMGUSed Scot for his case but not Yos which I found odd.

[Budja]

I'll try to explain again.

Town-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

Scum-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (

bus drive surprising

due to at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction). As a scum partly expecting a scot-kill, there is a greater chance of surprise or expectation of surprise. Scum know of the bus-drive, town does not. Scum would also be more likely to act surprised as they would subconsciously expecting the town to be surprised to despite the fact that the town did not know of the busdrive.

It still isn't strong at all but makes the tell a bit scummy rather than null.

(@Ren, noted. I'll look at that later)

[Budja]

I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.

Tracking result from Adel is a null tell. Scum-Adel might get goat lynched but would be likely lynched the next day.

From my perspective, Yos/Goat getting the tracker/bulletproof was obvious given the suspicion on Sens.

For a wagon with as much support as SensFan's wagon has, it's surprising how far he is away from being lynched. Scum not ready to bus yet?

QFT, most people seem to see Sens as scummy but no votes?

(still reading...)

[Budja]

Sorry for non-posting. Quite a bit busier now I am back at Uni. Reading...

[Budja]

@Volkan, what exactly in your post am I meant to respond to?

@Ren, I have reread and I am now very unsure. I am getting uncomfortable sure I have screwed up badly with my Yos case now by missing a bunch of posts when reading.

[Budja]

Ok to clarify I completly mixed up when rereading Yos in isolation and confused yos's post 24 with post 30, missing all posts in between.
I am pretty ashamed of my play here and have no excuses.

Fair point is that Yos ignored the busdriving thing. Though, for the same reason as with FL, I'm not prepared to read that much into that omission.

No-one even considered that possibility. The reverse-busdrive seemed much more likely.

It is not a valid way of determining who is scum because you aren't looking for scummy behavior. You basing everything on meaningless calculations and assumptions that don't hold any water.

Exactly, I'd like to see a little more than a string of maths posts.

[Budja]

I agree with MSH and Goat. Post the accounting cases.

(@mod, limited access for a week or so.)

[Budja]

Sure, but he was scum in that game. Know whaddamean? He did something similar here, asking a bunch of lurkers to voice their opinions on Adel's leading suspects.

It still doesn't seem scum-motivated to me. From Adel's play I would guess it would be usual behaviour regardless of alignment.[/quote]

Looking at the beginning of the Adel and Yos wagons, I'm mainly getting stronger confirmed in my suspicions against Ren. The wagon there builds up too much speed too fast for me to believe there is no scum there.

What about the speed of Ren initial wagon?
Ren's play seems pretty consistant here. As you said, he had earlier suspicions and hopping onto the wagon seems like exactly what he would do.

[Budja]

I had LA actually and I am reading/thinking on a post right now.

[Budja]

I would like to hear Sens post before a lynch occurs but I doubt it will change my mind.

I don't think Adel/Yosarian are scum together. Yosarian is tying himself far too neatly to Adel for them to be a scum pair. He's quite frankly begging us to lynch him next if Adel is scum, and I don't see Yosarian making that play as a scum buddy.

I stongly agree with this.

The initial wagon against Ren began on page 2 of the game thread, with the discussion between him, Seraphim and scotmany, and was lingering throughout the first 11 pages of the game, even though noone could vote at that time.

The initial suspicion did, but hardly enough for predict such a wagon occuring. Ren's behaviour after been voted contributed the most to his wagon.

It's not inconsistency that's bothering me. It's that he's all "I'm in favour of an Adel lynch" without actually contributing arguments, when the others have only expressed (strong) suspicion.

But the fact that it isn't unusual behaviour for Ren IMO weakens your view of him as the "scum on your wagon.

[Budja]

Well done Goat!
I'll do what is asked of me here.

[Budja]

TDC used it and targeted scot.

[Budja]

Michel is my scum-pick at the moment. I was reasonably sure one of Adel/Sens was scum.

Waiting on Goat now.

[Budja]

Yes, I'm obviously not going to believe him. I'm not that stupid ,

I had a plan in place to maybe try to trap up Budja, but honestly, I'd rather just play this straightforward and not risk anything on a gambit. I like to play risky, but I simply don't think it's worth it here.

I had a feeling you were planning some gambit like this TBH.

[Budja]

Damn.

Very, very well played by Goat.