Open 148: Jungle Republic (Game over) before 800

[Datadanne]

Off the cliff he goes.
But after landing at the bottom of the valley, He was still alive.

You left him there to die.

You went to check on him later,
There was no "him" there.

Just a bloody ground, Lots of fur and a very long tooth.
Too bad you found him at day.

Someone else finished the job.

Mastin - Pro-Town Townie - Was pushed off the cliffs day 3.

Night falls, Upon the lonely man.

Night falls, Upon the hungry man.

Night falls, Upon the good and the bad.

Night falls, But then someone is sad.

Night falls, Search for a broken man.

Night actions in to me in 72 Hours.

[Datadanne]

V/LA until late monday.

[Datadanne]

- Oh hi wolves & the monkey, Sorry about the delay.
So.... Who is dead...

Hmm....

Ehhh....

Emmm....

Yea....

Well, Isn´t this weird...

Noone was killed night 3.

[iamausername]

That is weird, because there is absolutely no benefit to the wolves in doing that. If we lynch town today, we can still win, which would not be the case if they'd made a kill (It would require them to kill the last mafia member for us in one of the next two nights, but still, it's lowered their chances of victory significantly). That makes me think that they didn't no kill intentionally, but missed their kill by mistake.

Looking through post histories between the 26th and the 30th, there are three players here who seem at all likely to have been too busy to make a kill. Yos hasn't made a post on site since the 24th because of his Beach Bash. Tarballs made no posts on site during the night until ~5 hours before daybreak. Caboose has set up a game he's modding over the course of a couple of days, but clearly hasn't had a lot of time to get on the site for a while now.

Also, even before I knew about the lack of a night kill, OGML and Wulfy were lowest on my list of potential wolves. OGML has given me a pro-town read all game, and my entire case on Wulfy was completely dependent on Mastin flipping wolf, which of course he didn't. I can't really see anyone else as Wulfy's partner. Sotty's the only one I'm semi-clearing with this that I had down as much of a suspect anyway.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure our wolves are in {Yos, Caboose, Tarballs}, and I'll be rereading the thread to take a close look at their interactions.

[Wulfy]

UN, that actually makes sense with Caboose. However, I can't think of anyone who was not active yesterday that would have to also have been inactive to miss their chance for a night kill.

Hm...

Maybe someone under suspicion was afraid that killing anyone would suggest they were mafia too heavily and decided not to kill anyone at all?

I'm unsure...

[Yosarian2]

I'm back from V/LA.

Anyway, Iamusername makes a good argument there. I've seen scum fail to get in nightkills for no good reason before even when they're around, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two wolves was away last night. I could see lynching either Caboose or Tarballs today.

[Mastin]

There have been many different ways of saying it. Throughout mafia history, it has been said thousands of times. Normally, a three-letter word, with some variant of the first letter in it. Some mods don't allow it, some insist that it can ONLY be a three-letter word, and some mods allow for more freedom, as long as it has no game-related content. But my personal favorite way of saying this phrase, this thing that I'd utter every game if the mod allowed it (seeing as how I've never lived to an endgame), that unique phrase of mine,

AAAAaaaarrg!! (Bah, Gah, etc.) Go town.

[Wulfy]

Mastin was slightly more helpful in this last post than all game.

Anyway, Caboose has been lurking the most so:

Vote Caboose

That's the best I got for today.

[iamausername]

Seeing that Fallen Angel only registered about 2 months ago and has only completed two games, as far as I can see from his signature, I would expect there to still be some inconsistency in his playing between different games.

That being said, even though FA's behaviour has deserved some votes, I'm not too comfortable with the rapid speed of his wagon. Especially this:

FoS: Mastin

for stalling an FA lynch

Unvote, Vote: Fallen Angel

is really unnecessary. There are people whose opinions we haven't heard yet and there's absolutely no reason to end this day yet. Even if FA were to be lynched, and even if he did flip scum, there is still more information to be found today.

Tarballs was clearly perfectly happy to see FA lynched, but thought he could gain some town cred by saying "woah, slow down, guys".

First of all, there's no one here who knew FA was town. Werewolves may have thought he was mafia, and mafia may have thought he was a werewolf. I had a newb town read of FA, so him flipping town didn't surprise me as much as it seems to have surprised some of you.

On D1, Tarballs says "FA's behaviour has deserved some votes". On D2, Tarballs "had a newb town read of FA". Anyone else seeing a problem here?

Kore, why is agreeing with someone else's reasoning scummy? Must everyone joining a wagon find something new and interesting to nitpick about?

My thoughts exactly. People get accused of that way too much, generally speaking.

I think

Khamisa's wagon is a lot better than FA's wagon yesterday

- and I'm not saying it just because two dead townies obviously improve the chances of lynching scum today. But I'd like to at least hear Mastin's thoughts before anyone hammers, because he's only posted once during day 2, and

his case on Khamisa wasn't a very strong one.

OGML already pointed this out earlier, but yeah, there is some definite inconsistency here.

My picks for the third mafia are Sotty7 and Caboose. It has to be one of them, but I'll need to reread to be totally sure. I'm agreeing with Mastin that we need to focus on the wolves - that would be the case even if a townie had been killed last night - so I'm not going lynch a mafioso claim today. Let the wolf(es) kill the last maf next night, if they can/want.

So, Tarballs says "we need to focus on the wolves"; perfectly true. The wolves were (and still are) the bigger threat. And yet, in this post he offers two candidates for the third mafia, and makes no attempt to actually find the wolves that he says we should be focussing on. What's up with that?

Now, if I could finally stop this near-useless arguing with my mafia suspects, I'd like to actually hunt some wolves.

Yeah, no one was stopping you but you.

Your case against Yos is a lot better, but I'm not totally convinced by it either.

This is pretty emblematic of his response to the Yos/Mastin fight; fence sitting, fence sitting, more fence-sitting. If neither Yos or Mastin are wolf, the wolves would obviously want to leave themselves open to spend today going after whichever one didn't get lynched yesterday. Which is pretty much what Tarballs was doing, I think.

---

HERE IS A SUMMARY, BECAUSE MASTIN HATES THOSE:

1) Huge inconsistency in his opinion on fallen angel.
2) Another incosistency as to whether people should have to provide their own reasoning to join a bandwagon.
3) Spent D3 repeatedly saying "need to hunt us some wolves", but

at no point actually did anything about it

.
4) Carefully avoided taking a side in the Yos/Mastin bust-up.

Vote: Tarballs

[Tarballs]

For the record: I didn't post on this site during last night phase, but was recieving and sending PMs regarding a game I was about to mod. And I visited the site every day.

Tarballs was clearly perfectly happy to see FA lynched, but thought he could gain some town cred by saying "woah, slow down, guys".

FA deserved votes for acting anti-town. The reason he didn't earn my vote was because some new players tend to act anti-town regardless of their alignment, and I saw FA as that type of a player after looking at some of his previous games. I figured there was about a 50% chance for him to be scum, as his role really could've been anything, so I wanted to wait for more content from FA, or pretty much anyone, so that we could have a better chance than a coinflip. That's why I didn't like it when some people, OGML in particular, were pushing a speedlynch.

First of all, there's no one here who knew FA was town. Werewolves may have thought he was mafia, and mafia may have thought he was a werewolf. I had a newb town read of FA, so him flipping town didn't surprise me as much as it seems to have surprised some of you.

On D1, Tarballs says "FA's behaviour has deserved some votes". On D2, Tarballs "had a newb town read of FA". Anyone else seeing a problem here?

My answer above should answer this, as well.

So, Tarballs says "we need to focus on the wolves"; perfectly true. The wolves were (and still are) the bigger threat. And yet, in this post he offers two candidates for the third mafia, and makes no attempt to actually find the wolves that he says we should be focussing on. What's up with that?

Figuring out who the third mafia is narrows down the potential wolf candidates.

I agree that I could've done a lot more on Day 3... and I'll just leave it as that. No excuses.


I believe that the wolves did indeed screw up last night, because we pretty likely would've had the exact same suspects for this day, had they killed someone and made it a lylo. So this can't be a WIFOM trap "for stupid townies to jump on". That makes me believe that Yos has to be one of the wolves, and the other one is most likely Caboose, who seems to have forgotten about this game entirely. Really can't see how anyone else but those two could've failed to send a kill.

Vote: Yosarian2

I am about 100% certain he's wolf.

[Yosarian2]

For the record: I didn't post on this site during last night phase, but was recieving and sending PMs regarding a game I was about to mod. And I visited the site every day.

Hmm...interesting.

Makes sense, a game of his in the mini theme queau did just fill up. Unfortunatly, I wasn't able to actually confirm that he was around at night because of this, because his last post in the queau forum was back on the 19th. Tarballs made no posts anywhere on this site between June 25th and June 30th. So we really have no way of knowing if that's true.

For the record, I was also on briefly a few times during the bash, on Ether's laptop which she brought, and I would have been able to send in a nightkill if I had been scum. I didn't post anything while I got on, though, so I can't prove tat either.

I believe that the wolves did indeed screw up last night, because we pretty likely would've had the exact same suspects for this day, had they killed someone and made it a lylo. So this can't be a WIFOM trap "for stupid townies to jump on". That makes me believe that Yos has to be one of the wolves, and the other one is most likely Caboose, who seems to have forgotten about this game entirely. Really can't see how anyone else but those two could've failed to send a kill.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the wolves did screw up. I'm not as confident as you that that proves they weren't around; I've seen scum teams just fail to get in kills while they were around, it just happened in the lynch all lurkers game I modded for example and both of the scum posted in the scum quicktopic that night. That being said, it does dramatically increase the odds of Caboose being scum, and I'm perfectly willing to vote there today.

Vote:Caboose

[Sotty7]

Vote: Yosarian2

I am about 100% certain he's wolf.

So he's your partner? That's the only way you could be 100% sure. You also really don't give any solid reasons as to why he's scum outside of the lack of night kill.

As it stands right now all three of Tar, Yos and Caboose look pretty bad. In my opinion I think Tar is more likely to flip wolf. His reaction to the seer claim was jumpy and yesterday enjoyed pointing out that it's clear he wasn't mafia. Iaaun has pointed out a lot of inconsistencies with him and his stances too.

I have had a bad feeling about Yos for awhile, something I can't quantify and Caboose has been a non factor. I am more comfortable with a Tar lynch over the other two at this point.

Vote: Tarballs

[Datadanne]

Looking for a replacement for caboose.

(Mastin, Don´t even think about it.)

Four to lynch.

[Mastin]

(Mastin, Don´t even think about it.)

Aww, why not? :/

[Wulfy]

2 and 2 eh? Hm... one of em be scum since there isn't a quick lynch yet...or scum is already on the wagon?

Hm... I can't complain about a Tarballs lynch too much simply because the case is at least partially valid. My main preference for Caboose deals with the lack of a kill this previous night.

Hm...why would tarballs fit that? Sotty, UN?

[Datadanne]

*Wonders how to ask for a replacement*

[iamausername]

*Wonders how to ask for a replacement*

This thread is the one you want.

one of em be scum since there isn't a quick lynch yet...

Nope, not lylo today. (Would have been if the wolves had made a kill, though).

Hm...why would tarballs fit that? Sotty, UN?

Like I said, check his post history. His last post in this game on D3 was also his last post on site until ~5 hours before the night ended.

[Datadanne]

*Wonders how to ask for a replacement*

This thread is the one you want.

I know, But how do i post the yellow thingy?
Meh, It does´nt matter.

Edit: Yay, Found the needed BBcode!

[iamausername]

Nope, not lylo today.

Been working through the numbers to see exactly how much lylo we're not in, and there's something I've noticed that I want to get out there now, just in case. It might not turn out to be important, but there's no reason not to point it out, as far as I can see:

If a day starts with one mafia, one townie and one werewolf, THE MAFIA WIN

.

Also, if a day starts with one mafia, NO townies and one werewolf, THE MAFIA WIN

. (See: wiki page for this setup)

The reason why I want to bring this to everyone's attention? This means that

IF WE LYNCH ONE WOLF, THE OTHER WOLF MUST KILL THE MAFIA TO WIN

. Normally, giving advice to scum is a bad idea, but making sure the wolves know this benefits us just as much as it benefits the wolves; if we lynch another townie, we're gonna have to rely on wolf killing mafia to have a chance. I just want to make sure they'll know that they have every reason to do that for us.

---

In other news, I'd be perfectly willing to lynch Caboose today too, because

both

wolves had to miss the kill, and I don't see Yos being Tar's partner, which pretty much process of eliminates it down to being Caboose.

Also, OGML needs to say something.

[Sotty7]

Hm...why would tarballs fit that? Sotty, UN?

Like I said, check his post history. His last post in this game on D3 was also his last post on site until ~5 hours before the night ended.

Pretty much this.

Iaaun, why don't you see Yos as Tars possible partner?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, after that last post, I'm almost completly sure Iamusername is town. I don't think he would have made that post as a member of either scum group.

[Tarballs]

I kinda disagree with that. He

could

be mafia, who is afraid of being nightkilled next night - as he should be, as everyone seems to believe he's not wolf. If that's the case, it would actually make sense for him to point that out. But either way, it's interesting wifoming.

Let's see the possible endgame scenarios:

Wolf is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

3 townies, 1 mafia, 1 wolf left tomorrow. If a townie is lynched, wolf MUST kill mafia (or no-kill) or they lose. If wolf is lynched, town gets two chances at finding the mafia.[/area]

Wolf is lynched today, mafia is nightkilled

4 townies and 1 wolf left tomorrow. Two chances to find the wolf.[/area]

Townie is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

2 townies, 2 wolves and 1 mafia left tomorrow. If a wolf is lynched, they MUST kill mafia (or no-kill) or they lose.[/area]

Townie is lynched today, mafia is nightkilled

3 townies and 2 wolves left tomorrow. Two lylo days.[/area]

Mafia is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

3 townies and 2 wolves left tomorrow. Two lylo days.[/area]

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

That should be 3 votes on Caboose and 2 votes on me.

[Yosarian2]

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

I really hate that reasoning.

[Wulfy]

one of em be scum since there isn't a quick lynch yet...

Nope, not lylo today. (Would have been if the wolves had made a kill, though).

Wasn't the wolf thing. I was just thinking three scum =lylo. I didn't disassociate scum from each other. My bad.

I also don't like the scent of this whole situation...

I won't unvote cause enough people have posted without a follow up vote, and if Caboose is scum, I think he won't be voting himself, so I am fine with my vote at the moment.

The tarballs support isn't all that shocking since town/wolf/mafia Tarballs would all make sense to support a lynch, even his partner given his play and the signs pointing to his involvement.

I dunno, just don't like it.

[Sotty7]

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

That should be 3 votes on Caboose and 2 votes on me.

So your soul reason for dropping your 100% vote on Yos seems to because Caboose is going to be lynched at some point and to bump him above you in the vote tally.

Weak.