Phables: Death Note Mafia (Game Over)

[Lamont_Cranston]

I'm sorry, I tried to go a different direction with Zee...

Unvote, Vote Kise

Votecount
Kise - 4 (Vi, Kairyuu, magnus_orion, Lamont_Cranston)
Lamont_Cranston - 2 (WeyounsLastClone, populartajo)
Stephoscope - 2 (LlamaFluff, Kmd4390)
MrBuddyLee - 2 (Kise, mykonian)
Benmage - 1 (ZEEnon)
Vi - 1 (ortolan)
Kmd4390 - 1 (Stephoscope)
Not voting: zwetschenwasser, mykonian, Skruffs, Starbuck, Seraphim, ThAdmiral, Gorrad

Heh, can't get anything by you...

With 21 alive, it's 11 to lynch.

[Stephoscope]

Unvote

Vote: Kise

I will still be doing more re-reading as promised, but Kise sure seems busted.

[Kairyuu]

FoS: Stepho

That post gives me a baaaad feeling.

[Gorrad]

I don't quite follow. Someone care to explain to me why that quote is scummy? I can see bad logic...

[Lamont_Cranston]

I don't quite follow. Someone care to explain to me why that quote is scummy? I can see bad logic...

Well Gorrad for me its just the final straw. I have tried not to join the Kise wagon all day, basically for the same reasons I didn't want to join the Myk wagon. Vi just reminded me how he has been cutting this profile all game long. Its that quote with a host of others that we all have been noticing.

The reason it is scummy is because he is discouraging the death of a Shinigami in general. The town's wincon

demands

the "death" of Shinigamis. Here he is taking the opposite view. Scum would take that view because they want to save the note the Shingtami would hold for the NK so they would be guaranteed to get it.

[Kairyuu]

@Gorrad:

I am saying that if Mastin WAS genuine on his claim as Shinigami, then that

would

only result in a new Kira by the time D2 rolled around.

Please take note that Kise demonstrates he knows that Mastin's killer is not town, meaning that either HE is the killer, and played the fool with the modkill speculation D1 or he is a member of the scumteam that did it (with the same implication about the speculation).

Hmm. Actually, come to think of it,

unvote

@all: Kise almost definitely does not have a death note, which means, scum or not, we don't need to lynch him now. Priority is hitting one of the remaining death notes. Lynching Kise will not accomplish this.

Reasons for this are that if Kise is the one who killed Mastin then he did not use a death note to do it, as death notes only kill at Night, and if he is part of the scumteam that did it (the assumption of a factional kill, during the Day no less, which I do not support, is required for this to be true) then he could possibly have it himself, but the odds are extremely low, as, again, that would require the scum to have a factional daykill.

So, in essence, Kise-wagon is pointless, regardless of his alignment, as it will not further our win con to lynch him.

Back to Lamont. Much better lynch pickings there.

vote: Lamont

[Gorrad]

Kairyuu...Did you honestly just say that we don't need to kill scum?

Yes, it's important to kill Note holders, but who can be a Note holder? Scum. Scum and Shinigami. So guess what, pal. We kill scum, then when we do hit a Death Note, the odds of us picking it up and destroying are simply that much higher. If we JUST went for notes now, then Scum could easily hop on and pick them up with no one being the wiser.

In other news, I dig what it's about now, thanks L_C.

Vote: Kise

. Kairyuu is next on the list for largely the same reason. L_C, congrats, you're now third.

[Kairyuu]

@Gorrad: Yes. I did just say that we don't need to kill scum. Killing scum without death notes does not further our win con. Logic says that Kise does not hold a death note, and therefore is a BAD LYNCH. My preference would be to find the scum WITH the note, and kill them. If that happens, then the scum will be rendered harmless at Night, allowing us to focus on lynching Shinigami with notes, and on the off chance that a scum manages to get another death note, they will be quite obvious, since they'll be forced to mindlessly wagon in the hopes that they can get one. We just cross-reference wagon jumpers to nab all of the scum if we actually end up having to do that.

I'm not overly concerned that you find me scummy for my views. Your logic is flawed, to put it simply. If we lynch scum, and they don't have a death note, we don't get any closer to winning. If we lynch scum who DO have a death note, we get closer to winning, because the likelyhood of destroying the note is HIGH. Lynching non-holding scum merely to improve our odds of destroying the note when we DO hit a holder is a waste of time. Destroying notes>lynching scum. If scum =/= note, then lynching is suboptimal. Make a note and then move on.

I repeat, Kise cannot have a death note. Lynching him is sub-optimal regardless of alignment.

[Kairyuu]

I find it hilarious that I'm trying to stop the lynch of someone I am reasonably sure is scum of some sort. Definitely liking this mechanic.

[Lamont_Cranston]

@Gorrad:

I am saying that if Mastin WAS genuine on his claim as Shinigami, then that

would

only result in a new Kira by the time D2 rolled around.

Please take note that Kise demonstrates he knows that Mastin's killer is not town, meaning that either HE is the killer, and played the fool with the modkill speculation D1 or he is a member of the scumteam that did it (with the same implication about the speculation).

Hmm. Actually, come to think of it,

unvote

@all: Kise almost definitely does not have a death note, which means, scum or not, we don't need to lynch him now. Priority is hitting one of the remaining death notes. Lynching Kise will not accomplish this.

Reasons for this are that if Kise is the one who killed Mastin then he did not use a death note to do it, as death notes only kill at Night, and if he is part of the scumteam that did it (the assumption of a factional kill, during the Day no less, which I do not support, is required for this to be true) then he could possibly have it himself, but the odds are extremely low, as, again, that would require the scum to have a factional daykill.

So, in essence, Kise-wagon is pointless, regardless of his alignment, as it will not further our win con to lynch him.

I don't think people are going to agree that Kise automatically doesn't have a death note here...

[Lamont_Cranston]

@Gorrad: Yes. I did just say that we don't need to kill scum. Killing scum without death notes does not further our win con. Logic says that Kise does not hold a death note, and therefore is a BAD LYNCH. My preference would be to find the scum WITH the note, and kill them. If that happens, then the scum will be rendered harmless at Night, allowing us to focus on lynching Shinigami with notes, and on the off chance that a scum manages to get another death note, they will be quite obvious, since they'll be forced to mindlessly wagon in the hopes that they can get one. We just cross-reference wagon jumpers to nab all of the scum if we actually end up having to do that.

I'm not overly concerned that you find me scummy for my views. Your logic is flawed, to put it simply. If we lynch scum, and they don't have a death note, we don't get any closer to winning. If we lynch scum who DO have a death note, we get closer to winning, because the likelyhood of destroying the note is HIGH. Lynching non-holding scum merely to improve our odds of destroying the note when we DO hit a holder is a waste of time. Destroying notes>lynching scum. If scum =/= note, then lynching is suboptimal. Make a note and then move on.

I repeat, Kise cannot have a death note. Lynching him is sub-optimal regardless of alignment.

Unfortunately we can't know who is a note holder and who isn't without more evidence.

[Lamont_Cranston]

I find it hilarious that I'm trying to stop the lynch of someone I am reasonably sure is scum of some sort. Definitely liking this mechanic.

QFT.

[Kairyuu]

Based on Kise's own words he cannot be holding one, since the likelyhood is that he was the one who killed Mastin, during the Day, which can't be done with a note. Therefore he doesn't have one. It's simple. I refuse to support the lynch of someone who would not advance our win con, scum or not.

[Lamont_Cranston]

Well I would agree with you except I'm not seeing how he is outing himself as Mastin's killer.

[Kairyuu]

Hmm. Giving some more thought to myko's claimed win con leads me to believe that any Shinigami with a similar one (getting to Day X with a note) would do well to NOT use theirs, as all kills speed the end of the game. Therefore, it is

possible

that any Shinigami in that situation thought of that, and didn't kill N1. We may have more than 3 notes left to destroy if that is the case. Also, if any of them DO have that type of win con, optimal play would be to stop using the note they have, to increase the probability of getting to the Day that they need to. This is a win/win for both town and them, since it increases the length of the game for the Shinigami, and decreases the number of possible town deaths/Night.

@Lamont: He stated definitively that if Mastin was telling the truth about being Shinigami then there would be a new Kira by D2. This means that he knows who Mastin's killer was. This narrows it down to either him, or a scumgroup he is part of, because that is the only way he would know for sure who the killer was. The only way he could possibly be holding a death note would be if it was a scumbuddy who killed Mastin, and Kise is the one holding the scumteam's note. I am discounting this possibility, since the assumption that must be made is that the scum not only have a factional kill, but that that kill is a daykill. I would put the likelyhood of this at about 1%. That leaves only the first possibility, that he himself is the killer.

[magnus_orion]

Er, I see the quote from kise as saying that we shouldn't lynch shinigami because there is a chance that scum would pick up the notebook by being on the wagon. Which strikes me as really scummy.
Or am I missing something?

[Lamont_Cranston]

Hmm. Giving some more thought to myko's claimed win con leads me to believe that any Shinigami with a similar one (getting to Day X with a note) would do well to NOT use theirs, as all kills speed the end of the game. Therefore, it is

possible

that any Shinigami in that situation thought of that, and didn't kill N1. We may have more than 3 notes left to destroy if that is the case. Also, if any of them DO have that type of win con, optimal play would be to stop using the note they have, to increase the probability of getting to the Day that they need to. This is a win/win for both town and them, since it increases the length of the game for the Shinigami, and decreases the number of possible town deaths/Night.

QFT.

[magnus_orion]

Was the post from kise before or after mastin died?

[Lamont_Cranston]

@Lamont: He stated definitively that if Mastin was telling the truth about being Shinigami then there would be a new Kira by D2. This means that he knows who Mastin's killer was.

To me it is a way of discouraging the killing of a Shinigami. I also see how a scum could say this to try to sound like town (as if he had the town wincon in mind); so actually it makes alot of sense that scum would do both here so that he could A) Look like town & B) Preserve death notes for the NK. It doesn't have to mean he knows it was scum that killed Mastin...

Besides, death notes only kill at night right (or after a night time)?

[magnus_orion]

It appears this quote was before mastin died.
Kairyuu, I don't see how your theory holds up in light of that.

[magnus_orion]

I find it suspicious

hilarious

that I'm trying to stop the lynch of someone I am reasonably sure is scum of some sort. Definitely liking this mechanic.

fixed.
scum potentially carry DN.
If they do not yet have one they could gain one. If every potential anti-town has a death note, then if one acquires an additional DN, they are forced to give it to a townie, whom promptly destroys it.

Hos: kairyuu

You're better than this.

[Kairyuu]

Hmm. The quote read like it had been made after Mastin had been killed. That does kinda blow up my theory. Back to square one.

unvote

vote: Kise

Since my theory is no longer valid I have no reason to believe that Kise, who is still likely scum, is not holding a note, so I no longer have a problem supporting his lynch. Context is important.

@magnus: Regardless of the fact that my theory about Kise no longer holds, my opinions still do. If we end up finding likely scum, but have strong evidence to support that they are not in possession of a death note, they should NOT be lynched. We should simply make a note of who they are for future reference, and try to find someone who does have a note.

Are you trying to say that if you knew someone was scum, but also knew that they didn't have a death note, you would try to get them lynched over someone else who you suspected to have a death note? That does not advance the town's win condition, and is therefore sub-optimal play using the mechanic in this particular game.

Also, your logic fails to apply the same way that Gorrad's does. It is far more efficient to destroy all of the death notes BEFORE whittling down the number of scum than it is to eliminate the scum and then go after the remaining notes. Also, the maximum number of Days during which all possible anti-town roles possess death notes is 2, assuming that all of the shinigami and the one remaining scum are in possession of notes. Then, if we lynch the scum we get a 100% chance of destroying the note. The following Day's lynch of one of the Shinigami will also work 100%, but after that there would be less notes than Shinigami, and we will always have a failure chance of increasing size as the noteless shinigami hop on every lynch wagon all the while killing us off at Night. Better to destroy the notes fast while we have cannon fodder than to wait until the scum start having good odds of getting a death note from any given note holder lynch.

[magnus_orion]

It would be better to get the notes, sure, but that doesn't mean we ignore scum. Remember, scum can exchange death notes to try and hide them amongst each other, so what applies one day may not apply the next. It would be much more difficult to narrow down which scum have the death note, than who are the scum.
We need to get rid of their hiding locations.

[Kairyuu]

That's not what I'm arguing though magnus. My point was that if we think we've found scum then we should lynch them in the hopes of them having a death note, but if there is strong evidence to support both them being scum AND them NOT having a death note, then lynching them would not be in our best interest. Instead, taking note of who they are for a later lynch (when they might have been given one) would be a MUCH better play. That is the situation I believed we had with Kise. I am still reasonably certain of his being scum, but now there is no evidence to support that he is not holding a death note, so I support lynching him once again.

[magnus_orion]

Alright, I can accept that.