Mini 780 - Chosen - Game over

[Incognito]

Vote Count #1 of Day 4

Not voting (3) <-~ Ojanen, ekiM, Lord Gurgi

With 3 living, 2 will do it.

Wednesday, July 15th at 7 P.M. EDT.

[Ojanen]

I did my reread on relevant people in context until end of Day 1.
It was quite reassuring, I must say.

INFODUMP

Day 1
Interactions

Lawrancelot

- ekiM - hp (Gurgi) - Ace (Ojanen)

(Random votes: hp=>law, Mike=>Ace Ace=>Mike law=>hp, isn't that a lovely little pattern?)

Serious stage:
P 64

ekiM votes hp

. Playing activity police.
P 79 In the context of SL voting and questioning Ace just before,

ekiM FoSes Ace

P 85

Law

votes Ace

. Mostly gut, agrees on what others have said about Ace.
P 97 ekiM hints accusations at Ace, questions hp.
Also answers about his stance on suspects:

He (Law) had contributed slightly more, but not by much. Right now, the three biggest non-contributers are Hp, Lawrence, and Ace.
Hp has still said literally nothing at all so far this game. Hard-lurking.
Lawrence has written more words, but only just said more than Hp in terms of content. Most of Ace's posts are one-liners, voicing feelings. 95 also contradicts 66, which makes his suspicions look worryingly insincere. Both of these two are active lurkers.
Not finding anyone else suspicious at the moment.

P 99 Law finds scummy: (q21, Claus and) Ace's behaviour. Intends to do a case on Ace later but

unvotes

.
P 108

ekiM unvotes hp and votes Ace

(L-3), writes a small case against Ace.
P 111

Law

votes Ace

(L-2), agrees with ekiM's 108
P 113 ekiM calls Law out for mirroring suspicions
P 115 Ace about his reads:

As for town-seeming players: you (springlullaby) and newen are playing a good town game, and ekiM hasn't given me anything to complain about. hp [leaves] is slightly scummy for his cronic lurking, law is leaning scum at the moment.

P 117 Ace accuses law as responding to a question
P 126

Ace votes

Law

(L-3)
P 130 Law jots down his case against Ace
P 144 ekiM hopes that hp is back soon and questions Ace
P 146 Ace responds to ekiM
Note 149:

hp votes tajo

, which is his first serious vote in the game, when the general momentum to go against Ace (or Law, for that matter) is there and Ace and Law are tied 3-3 in votes
P 155

Law

unvotes Ace

:

So there's a deadline. I think I need to give this all some more thought. Unvote, might switch back to Ace later.

P 162

ekiM unvotes Ace, votes hp

for providing no content after massive V/LA
P 172 Ace accuses Law ("another scummy nugget")
P 188

Ace seems pretty neural to me. Leaning neither town or scum here.

P 197 Another interesting suspect list:

Current thinking:
Townies: Spring, Nuwen, Claus
Scummy: Tajo, Law, ABR.
Scum: Ace, hp.
I've found Ace's behavior today pretty bad but a lynch ain't looking likely so I'm happy to vote for hp. Look at his posts in iso, he's said almost nothing all game. Now look in iso at viewtopic.php?p=1649954 and viewtopic.php?p=1638393. He's terse in those games too, but has much more useful content than here.

P 211

Law

votes hp

I still feel safe with lynching hp. My list:
Good lynches:
hp
Not bad lynches:
Ace, ABR (if you don't take chosen stuff into account)
Worse lynches:
populartajo, no lynch?
Bad lynches:
rest

P229 Ace speculates that Law and ABR are scum together
P236

ekiM unvotes hp

P257

ekiM votes hp again

(L-1)
P263

hp FoSes

Law

P286&P288 Law goes hard after hp in arguments

Deadline in 23 hours, votecount
hp [leaves] (4) <-~ Nuwen, Lawrencelot, Claus, ekiM
AceMarksman (1) <-~ springlullaby
Lawrencelot (2) <-~ AceMarksman, populartajo
populartajo (2) <-~ Albert B. Rampage, hp [leaves]

In reaction to deadline,

alright, if no one objects, I will hammer hp. While I feel that is a sub-par lynch, it is better than a no lynch. Any objections?

Wait till tomorrow.I really prefer a Law lynch.

as do I. Lynch of a lurker < Lynch of scummy player.

The wagon turns around by ABR and Claus.

hp hammers

Law

some hours before deadline.

[Ojanen]

The patterns should be pretty obvious, but the heck, I might say stuff aloud too.
First of all, ekiM is left all alone. Noone suspects him.
Ace and hp are among main suspects.
Law's attacks on Ace and hp are done somewhat in irregular but clearly discernable tandem with ekiM.
Limiting to view to alive people, Law attacks Ace and hp. ekiM attacks hp, Ace and hp. Ace attacks Law and keeps his vote from page 5 until hammer on him. hp hammers Law and doesn't attack Ace.
Ace doesn't hammer hp despite quite long chance.
hp doesn't hop on either bandwagon when Ace and Law are both L-2.

This looks pretty glaring.
Might take a look at the other days later, but so far the tendencies are strong.

[Ojanen]

Ugh.
Sorry mod, didn't think that the use of bold to look at patterns would probably be annoying for you when you search posts for votecounts. There's no current vote in that post (551).

[Ojanen]

I really don't like ekiM's silence considering his sig says he has no access for a week starting from tomorrow.
Post.

[Lord Gurgi]

Yeah.

[ekiM]

I haven't been able to get on for any of my games all weekend. My apologies.

One less vanilla townie. This way if we lynch anyone but the Chosen we win.

But she would've died at night anyway...

These were your reasons of maybe being the chosen one at that point yesterday.
Lawrencelot repeatedly attacked my slot during most of day 1. Lawrancelot swapped wagons and attacked Gurgi's slot iirc 4 days before the deadline and seemingly seriously tried to get him lynched.

Is there a disrepancy in your opinion here on who's more likely chosen or is this mostly unreliable WIFOM?

I don't see a discrepancy. Someone asked how I could be Chosen if nobody attacked me D1. Answer: there was no reason for a townie to attack me, so even if I were Chosen the scum would have no plausible way to try and get me lynched, so they would leave me alone. I don't see how you think this contradicts that Law attacked both of you D1.

What discrepancy are you insinuating?

As for your infodump, you seem to be saying that because Law attacked the same people as I did, we must be scum together. I don't see what the supposed motivation is for scum to tie themselves together like that on D1, especially in this game where a Chosen flip so early would heavily implicate those on the wagon. It'd be nice if you would 'say aloud' what that motivation might be, rather than posting droves of busywork that signifies little.

Lord Gurgi has been quite quiet today. Why? And why has Ojanen only questioned my quietness, not his?

I have to go now, I will post again before I leave.

Replaced by Jahudo. - Incog-Mod

[Ojanen]

Who do you think is probably scum and why, ekiM?

If you're the Chosen one then Law decided to heavily attack his partner.
Either take real initiative in the attack for a prolongued period of time or go full force before deadline.
Also, the whole point of taking only the interactions between Law, you, Ace and hp was to filter out all kinds of noise that made the patterns much less obvious. It's ok if the notes are worthless to you. They aren't to me.
You didn't attack only same people. You took opposite positions for example in the Nuwen/q21 thing. But looking only at the living people, you and Law happened to attack both me and hp, and neither of us attacked you, and both of us attacked Law back.

As for my position said aloud, I see you as the most unlikely chosen one. I think you're more likely scum than LG. Still, I wanna interact with you before making any final choice.
I questioned your quietness because I saw your sig and today is the last day you're here for a week, and Gurgi had at least answered my initial question already.

[Ojanen]

Oh yeah and forgot to say that Ace didn't hammer hp despite extended chance but instead stayed as part of terminal Law lynchmob and hp didn't attack Ace even when he was tied as a leading bandwagon with Law.
Both of these indicate no opportunism at helping Law out.

[Lord Gurgi]

So do you think you're the Chosen One, Ojanen?

[Ojanen]

I think it's me or you so yes, it's a distinct possibility.
(Love the Dramatic Caps on the Chosen One. )

[Ojanen]

Actually, also Mike, while you're here:

OK so Nuwen is almost certainly town and not the Chosen. I could go for her plan, except I'm not really convinced that I can't be the Chosen, and if I am and get lynched today then we're in a serious hole tomorrow.

I've seen two things why I'm not. Firstly that I didn't get voted D1 at all.

This is silly, scum wouldn't go after the Chosen D1 if there was no case, and there wasn't.

Secondly that nobody pushed for my lynch since then. Well, there's only one scum left and they can't make a lynch by themselves, so if there wasn't much to push on me they'd probably wait for someone else to suspect me, or for people to get the idea to lynch not-Chosens and use the lack of suspicion to paint me that way.

I also note that hp "randomly" voted me early yesterday[day 2], and then made encouraging noises while Tajo was suspecting me...

Explain the thought process that is behind the contradictory scent between these 2 defences.
Is it because there is a big difference between day 1 and day 2?
If yes, please elaborate.

[Lord Gurgi]

Mike, who do you want to lynch today.

[Ojanen]

Since Mike's sig states zzzzzz for a week, who do you prefer for lynch at this point Gurgi?

[Incognito]

ekiM's V/LA has been acknowledged.

[Lord Gurgi]

It's not relevant until Mike answers my question.

Can I put you down as a Mike only lynch?

[Ojanen]

Ok, I get that.
You can put me down as about 94% Mike lynch at the moment.

[Incognito]

Bump.

[Lord Gurgi]

Holiday bump.

[Incognito]

Ojanen has been prodded.

[Ojanen]

Picking up my prod.
Not much to talk about before we get Mike to answer though.

[Lord Gurgi]

Hascow for God!

[Ojanen]

I sound my barbaric yawp over the roofs of the world.

[Incognito]

ekiM has been prodded.

[Incognito]

Bumping thread and vote count.