Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[iamausername]

I don't see any pro town reason for Hero to give FC the benefit of the doubt(aside from being masons).

Possibility A: Far_Cry says 'this is my first game on this site'. He later clarifies the meaning of this statement as "this is my first game

on this site

, when people have mistaken it to mean "this is my first game of mafia anywhere ever".

Possibility 2: Far_Cry said "this is my first game on this site" with the intention of misleading everyone into believing that this is his first game of mafia anywhere ever. When people start making the assumption, based on his statement, that this is his first game of mafia anywhere ever, he suddenly has an attack of conscience and comes clean that this isn't really his first game of mafia anywhere ever, because he just can't bear the thought that people might have been misled based on a statement he made

with the intention of misleading them

.

Pro-town reason to give FC the benefit of the doubt: POSSIBILITY 2 MAKES NO SENSE.

Now, Hero has been saying this over and over, and it is not getting through, so I don't know why I expect to have any more luck, but at least I can say I tried.

In the above posts, as soon as you suspect Hero is a mason or other linked role,

you ask him to claim or die.

If this isn't out of the blue, I don't know what is.

Bolded is the extremely scummy misrep.

No:

If you are masons, please claim. If not, its time to swing.

Please explain how "claim or die" is in any way an inaccurate paraphrase of this quote.

B) Why would scum be "happy" to have two confirmed roles? Two "confirmed townies" on day 1 effectively reduces our lynch pool, and increases our chances of hitting scum WITHOUT SACRIFICING ANYONE.

This applies to any claim. So why don't we just massclaim right now?

POP QUIZ!

Which is better:

i) having two confirmed town players while there are twelve players alive, two or three of whom are scum

OR:

having two confirmed town players while there are three players alive, one of whom is scum.

You are either stupid or scum. < Not a false dichotomy. You have shown a serious lack of understanding for how the game of mafia works.

[Mokina]

Having two confirmed town players while there are twelve players alive, two or three of whom are scum?

Or having two confirmed town players while there are three players alive, one of whom is scum?

The claim would clear them both which only benefits town.

Looks like Iam got to it first. Uh... yeah, confirmed masons aren't worth dirt on D1. Their value increases the closer we get to endgame. Scum naturally will kill them as soon as they claim to prevent this value from manifesting. They only improve lynch chances for one day. Remember fractions? 2/3 is a much bigger confirmed town fraction than 2/7. Q.E.D, a claim on D1 doesn't benefit the town an ounce.

Kiku, your interpretation is either a fundamental "lack of understanding for how the game of mafia works" or genuine, scummalicious mason rolefishing. Along those lines,

FoS

out to Lowell for loving D1 mason claims and being lurkish and being suspicious.

Ha ha. I went there.

Do you know that Hero is town?

...and apparently it doesn't just extend to Hero and FC, I'm a mason target too. Is Iam next? Qwints? Find out next episode! I am getting absolutely sick of this.

If Hero is scum and knows FC is town then he has motivation to defend him. i.e. if the FC wagon gained steam and was then lynched and flipped town, scumHero would be looked at as protown. I

can't speculate on whether or not they are scum partners

because Hero's defense could be seen both ways. To wit, I have pointed out again and again that I find Hero's behavior in giving FC the benefit of the doubt to be "anti-town".

And you've been speculating about other people having alignment knowledge? In the above post, you come to the conclusion that Hero was scummy in his defense based on the assumption that one of the following is going on:

• Hero is scum, FC is a townie. Hero buddies up in hopes of favors.
  
• Hero is scum, FC is scum. Hero protects him from a vote.

Marvelous logic. If we assume that Hero is scum, we can rightly conclude that in this circumstance, Hero's actions were driven by... scumminess!

Does anyone else notices how very, very circular this is? Her fabrication fails to mention the other two elements in the 2x2 grid that is Mafia:

• Hero is a townie, FC is a townie. Hero prevents him from being attacked for semantics.
  
• Hero is a townie, FC is scum. Hero
  prevents him from being attacked for semantics
  .

I rest my case.

Mod: Doublepost deletion of above?

What doublepost?
- Mod

[Lowell]

172 is really stupid. Policing the gameplay doesn't mean anything.

note to self: qwints jumps in to protect hero.

[qwints]

Looks like Iam got to it first. Uh... yeah, confirmed masons aren't worth dirt on D1. Their value increases the closer we get to endgame. Scum naturally will kill them as soon as they claim to prevent this value from manifesting. They only improve lynch chances for one day. Remember fractions? 2/3 is a much bigger confirmed town fraction than 2/7. Q.E.D, a claim on D1 doesn't benefit the town an ounce.

To be fair, there is some value to confirmed masons on day 1 - just not as much as there is later on. Also, Q.E.D. should go at the end of the proof.

Along those lines, FoS out to Lowell for loving D1 mason claims and being lurkish and being suspicious.

lol

@Lowell - nice misrep. Kiku unvoted Hero before I did. Also Mokina 'defended' Hero in 157 and 170. Vote stays.

[Hero764]

172 is really stupid. Policing the gameplay doesn't mean anything.

note to self: qwints jumps in to protect hero.

Hey, you going to address your reasons for voting me or what?

[Lowell]

You were angry and meta, plus I like bandwagons. And IIRC correctly you made a big deal about possible mason claims, which are in no way a big deal.

[Hero764]

1. So kiku wasn't angry?
2. What do you mean I was meta.
3. When did I make a big deal about Mason claims?

[Lowell]

unvote

. Maybe that was someone else. I don't really remember. I'll think about it.

[kikuchiyo]

Pro-town reason to give FC the benefit of the doubt: POSSIBILITY 2 MAKES NO SENSE.

No. But someone coming clean when they think they may have been caught in a lie does. You are giving FC the benefit of the doubt as well here. I am not going to argue with you on this point.

No:

If you are masons, please claim. If not, its time to swing.

Please explain how "claim or die" is in any way an inaccurate paraphrase of this quote.

You left out the "masons" part.

B) Why would scum be "happy" to have two confirmed roles? Two "confirmed townies" on day 1 effectively reduces our lynch pool, and increases our chances of hitting scum WITHOUT SACRIFICING ANYONE.

This applies to any claim. So why don't we just massclaim right now?

YOU ARE A FOOL! How does it apply to any claim? Masons "confirm" each other. That's the whole point. I could claim doc right now, but it wouldn't mean a damn thing because there is no way of proving it. Please stop being stupid.

POP QUIZ!

Which is better:

i) having two confirmed town players while there are twelve players alive, two or three of whom are scum

OR:

having two confirmed town players while there are three players alive, one of whom is scum.

First option, especially when one of the two players who could be confirmed is heading for a lynch. Second option is wishful thinking. If they could fly under the radar that long it would be nice, but claiming early protects other town pr's from night kills, netting us more info.

Looks like Iam got to it first. Uh... yeah, confirmed masons aren't worth dirt on D1. Their value increases the closer we get to endgame. Scum naturally will kill them as soon as they claim to prevent this value from manifesting. They only improve lynch chances for one day. Remember fractions? 2/3 is a much bigger confirmed town fraction than 2/7. Q.E.D, a claim on D1 doesn't benefit the town an ounce.

I'm not going to jump into a meta argument here and start linking you to games where day 1 mason claims have turned out to be a boon for town, but yeah, see above. The odds of masons making it to a lylo situation are fairly low. If you would like, link me to a game where this has occurred and I will drop the argument immediately. Confirming 2 townies would improve lynch chances for the rest of the game, not just for day, and also draw nk's away from other MORE USEFUL power roles.

...and apparently it doesn't just extend to Hero and FC, I'm a mason target too. Is Iam next? Qwints? Find out next episode! I am getting absolutely sick of this.

No, the implication here is that you are scum. Not sure why you think I am "mason rolefishing" when I have asked one player, and one player alone if they are masons with the player they have been staunchly defending.

And you've been speculating about other people having alignment knowledge? In the above post, you come to the conclusion that Hero was scummy in his defense based on the assumption that one of the following is going on:



Hero is scum, FC is a townie. Hero buddies up in hopes of favors.

Hero is scum, FC is scum. Hero protects him from a vote.


Marvelous logic. If we assume that Hero is scum, we can rightly conclude that in this circumstance, Hero's actions were driven by... scumminess!

No, I simply demonstrated why Hero

may be

scum. How his actions

may have been

scummy. Don't try to paint me as working with absolutes.

Does anyone else notices how very, very circular this is? Her fabrication fails to mention the other two elements in the 2x2 grid that is Mafia:



Hero is a townie, FC is a townie. Hero prevents him from being attacked for semantics.

Hero is a townie, FC is scum. Hero prevents him from being attacked for semantics.


I rest my case.

So, according to

your

logic, Hero is town? No chance he is scum? You do realize that either FC or Hero or both could be scum in this game, right?

Kiku's not angry, btw.

[Wiirdo]

Vote:Lowell

for active lurking and suspicious posts.

[Mokina]

To be fair, there is some value to confirmed masons on day 1 - just not as much as there is later on. Also, Q.E.D. should go at the end of the proof.

My logical liberty, I guess. If it's

quod erat demonstrandum

, wouldn't my last sentence be "It has been demonstrated ... a claim on D1 doesn't benefit the town an ounce," which makes sense? I suppose it's traditional to put it at the very end. :)

So, according to your logic, Hero is town? No chance he is scum? You do realize that either FC or Hero or both could be scum in this game, right?

Every member of the town has to consider all four possibilities when talking about a situation like this, even you. The argument you carried on against Hero for several pages was fundamentally flawed, because you did not consider all four - only the two that conveniently allowed your argument to take shape. I am attacking the validity of your case against Hero because you used blatant circular reasoning.

You left out the "masons" part.

+1 point for kiku! I concede, you wanted him to very specifically

claim mason

or die. How does that make you any less scummy, pray tell?

Haha, what an excellent way to conveniently arrange for someone to be "heading for a lynch." I am not sure I can agree with how you answered Iamausername's pop quiz...

First option, especially when one of the two players who could be confirmed is heading for a lynch. Second option is wishful thinking. If they could fly under the radar that long it would be nice, but claiming early protects other town pr's from night kills, netting us more info.

Even if your hypothetical masons don't claim early, a handful of power roles are unlikely to die due to a random nightkill pick N1. They are, however, by way of simple math, more likely to die due to a random scum nightkill on, say, N4. Plus, scum pick up many more PR tells in that time and investigators are more valuable by then. No, if there's a linked role pair in play here, they will reveal themselves at the most opportune time for as much town confirmation as possible to happen, before the scum can react. Nobody should be trying to make them confirm before they have to.

Revealing mason information is not to be taken lightly, because such a confirmation can serve a crucial town role if executed at the right time. To give an example, a pair of masons might consider it when an investigative role claims and reveals a night check list. If a cop has checked out several different people by then, the masons should totally confirm one another. Unless it's a huge game, at that point scum are screwed. They would would be forced to choose between the cop (most likely), the confirmed innos, and both masons.

Overwhelming numbers of people who know each other's town alignment are called an informed majority, and that's what we are aiming for. Combined confirmations are pretty much an instant town win, whereas splitting them up and allowing the mafia enough time to kill the innos as they arrive is stupid. I conclude that the second option presented by Iam is preferable. Q.E.D.?

[kikuchiyo]

Nobody should be trying to make them confirm before they have to.

If they are acting scummy and defending each other thereby wasting town's time and resources then I maintiain that the situation falls under the category of "have to."

Is the second option preferable? Yes, I misposted there. My point was that the second option is highly unlikely and if you link me to a game where it has ever occurred I will cease the argument immediately.

I am confused here. If I consider all four options when interrogating a player, how do I effectively glean information? At some point one must abandon the obvious mathematical statiscs and go with what they think. Hero's defense and argument seemed scummy to me, hence my vote and subsequent interrogation. If you haven't noticed, I unvoted a while back and am allowing much more discussion to take place. At this point it seems that you are doing to me exactly what you claim I did to Hero. Thoughts?

[Far_Cry]

Vote:Lowell

for active lurking and suspicious posts.

Um, Wiirdo, I'm not sure if this is ur 1st game, but this sounds strange. U urself hav been lurking (a little), and then go and vote for someone else doing the same.

Kinda sounds mafiaish.

Meanwhile,

unvote

Obviously Tenchi will be gone (I mean, is gone). No point trying to get something out of him/her.

iamausername, why do u keep goin on about my earlier statement about my experience in mafia? In jus about every post u hav to somehow attack me.

Oh and Lowell, shut up. If u dont hav anything reasonable to say, don't say it. U make urself look rly retarded.

And kiku, u ALWAYS hav the longest posts. u hav to say something for just about everything, huh?

My biggest suspicions: Lowell and Wiirdo

[Hero764]

U make urself look rly retarded.

Are you even trying to play this game?

[Tenchi]

Mod: Personal life stuff. I swear I will be back in a few days. (More apologies to Kikuchiyo/Hero as this was supposed to be one big happy reunion.).

[Mokina]

I am confused here. If I consider all four options when interrogating a player, how do I effectively glean information? At some point one must abandon the obvious mathematical statiscs and go with what they think. Hero's defense and argument seemed scummy to me, hence my vote and subsequent interrogation. If you haven't noticed, I unvoted a while back and am allowing much more discussion to take place. At this point it seems that you are doing to me exactly what you claim I did to Hero. Thoughts?

You have to consider which conclusions don't make sense. Let's say you built up a legitimate and full case against FC, asked the right questions, and actually scumhunted. I might actually be agreeing with you right now, and my notes would look like:

Kiku brings out some serious evidence against FC, Hero defends...

• Hero is scum, FC is a townie. Hero buddies up in hopes of favors.
  
• Hero is scum, FC is scum. Hero protects him from a vote.
  
• Hero is a townie, FC is a townie. Hero protects him from a weak argument.
  
  
• Hero is a townie, FC is scum. Hero protects him from a weak argument.
  
  
  
  or, I guess
  
  
  
• Both are masons, Hero protects FC because he's town and Hero wants town to win.

Eliminated Uninformed Town Hero, since it's not in the interests of the town to derail a real case.

For the purposes of voting and probable motivation, you can remove some possibilities from the list if they don't make sense - I think the reason you went about your argument the way you did is that you honestly believe your accusation was based on something worthwhile.

As it stands, I don't think it's outside of reason to think Hero might be town counterattacking a semantic argument on principle.

[kikuchiyo]

Sorry, Mokina, how does ant of what you have posted "logically" make me scum? If you think I "honestly believe" my accusation to be based on "something worthwhile" then it would logically follow that I am town, yet you are voting me.

Your logic is entirely hypocritical.

[nadroj15]

Sorry, Mokina, how does ant of what you have posted "logically" make me scum? If you think I "honestly believe" my accusation to be based on "something worthwhile" then it would logically follow that I am town, yet you are voting me.

Your logic is entirely hypocritical.

That's a very good point.

[kikuchiyo]

Thank you. I had to reread her posts a couple of times, but then I realized they just don't make any sense.

[dank]

Post 52:

unvote

Lowell is

lurking and is suspicious

, but I'll hold back on my vote for now.

Vote:Lowell

for active l

urking and suspicious

posts.

Um, Wiirdo, I'm not sure if this is ur 1st game, but this sounds strange. U urself hav been lurking (a little), and then go and vote for someone else doing the same.

Kinda sounds mafiaish.

Meanwhile,

unvote

Obviously Tenchi will be gone (I mean, is gone). No point trying to get something out of him/her.

iamausername, why do u keep goin on about my earlier statement about my experience in mafia? In jus about every post u hav to somehow attack me.

Oh and Lowell, shut up. If u dont hav anything reasonable to say, don't say it. U make urself look rly retarded.

And kiku, u ALWAYS hav the longest posts. u hav to say something for just about everything, huh?

My biggest suspicions: Lowell and Wiirdo

Its suspicious when someone other than you says "lurking and suspicious"?

Anyway, just reread most of the stuff I missed. The Hero thing has beaten to death, so I'm not going to argue more of it. I think Hero is being pretty thickheaded, because whether he admits it or not, he is defending FC by giving him the benefit of the doubt. If you can't understand how that's being done at this point, I dont know what else can be said. Its a simple concept, its been blown up like crazy.

As far as mason claims, I can see it being a good thing. Say we have two confirmed masons. Two things can happen:

1. Mafia nightkills the confirmed town masons, which are not PR, so the PR possibly get more time. +

2. Mafia takes note of the masons, but nightkills others that could have PRs. They may hit or miss as usual, but through it all, we have two confirmed townies very early on, and have a lesser chance of a mislynch. +

Seems a win win situation in theory, though of course mafia could take advantage and fakeclaim, and other sort of complications could arise. I'm relatively new, so I could be wrong (do let me know if I am).

Anyway, kik's rush to lynch/claim out of hero seems a bit, well, rushed? We've got plenty of time, and we did get alot of information thus far, but there's no reason to end the day this early. We should fit as much discussion in as possible until we absolutely have to lynch someone, where its blatantly obvious. I don't think we're at that point with hero yet, so I don't think there's any reason to rush for a lynch this early.

Anyway, some questions:

kik, why did you want to lynch/claim so soon, when we still have so much time left?

FC: You're suspicious of Lowell for lurking, yet aren't you lurking just as much?

Lowell: You're looking pretty scummy thus far, but you're playing exactly to your meta (which is pretty good strategy here, actually). Post more. Who do you suspect?

naj- please never make posts like "that's a very good point" again. thanks.

[Mokina]

Thank you. I had to reread her posts a couple of times, but then I realized they just don't make any sense.

Please. I am voting for you because it doesn't make sense for town to make the kind of arguments you did. You accused Hero of ... what, exactly? Defending Far_Cry? You attempted to mislead the town into thinking the circumstances could only mean Hero was scum was antitown - when in fact you were pushing what was essentially a semantic case on two different people.

The only reason you backed down was because people didn't buy it. I have explained my suspicions before, and I would appreciate if you would actually make a statement on your vote v. Hero.

[iamausername]

I think Hero is being pretty thickheaded, because whether he admits it or not, he is defending FC by giving him the benefit of the doubt. If you can't understand how that's being done at this point, I dont know what else can be said. Its a simple concept, its been blown up like crazy.

For the record, I have at no point been arguing that Hero has not been defending FC and/or giving him the benefit of the doubt. My point is that there is nothing scummy about those actions.

naj- please never make posts like "that's a very good point" again. thanks.

To be fair to nadroj, the post in question

was

a very good point.

I think the reason you went about your argument the way you did is that you honestly believe your accusation was based on something worthwhile.

totally does not stack up with:

Please. I am voting for you because it doesn't make sense for town to make the kind of arguments you did.

I think the first quote is a rare example of an actual genuine scumslip.

Unvote, Vote: Mokina

[dank]

The only reason you backed down was because people didn't buy it.

Did you not do the very same thing?

[dank]

ick, nevermind. Confused you with someone else.

I'll make another reread when i'm more conscious.

[nadroj15]

Dank - What are your thoughts on Mokina at the moment? You comment about my "good point" post but not about the point in question. Nothing really scummy about that, I'm interested in hearing your stance on her.

Also, why no "good point" posts? I understand that it contributed nothing, but I

was

stating my viewpoint on the subject.

Unvote, Vote: Mokina

Forgot to do that in my earlier post.