Mini 807 - Save the Mafia! (Game Over!)

[My Milked Eek]

I honestly don't care what the vig does. The role, if used wisely, helps the town, and I'm VERY pro town.

Ugh...
You know, stating that you're "very protown" after you said "you don't care what the vig does" is like tying a red flag to your back and telling the bull it's blue.

Also, post your magic case on qax please. It was scummy of reckoner when he voted without reason, but it's even scummier to say you have suspicions on someone and then not post them.


This post also includes a "I'll post later today" note, I need to get my grades in an hour or so and I just wanted to note this real quick.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked, I'm not angry that you voted me, but when you vote me saying I was bandwaggoning, please note that I had reasons for all of my votes. Bandwaggoning is more jumping on other peoples' reasons.

Yeah this is the main reason why I unvoted you. When I was looking for the evidence that I thought I had, I found evidence that made you appear like pro-town.

[Wickedestjr]

I still think that canadianbovine's revotes and unvotes for the same person scummier, so my vote remains on him/her.

I never said that I thought the revote was scummy.

And how is that not claiming that CB's revote/unvote is scummy, which you just said you didn't do?

Oh good point. I think when I said that I meant to say that I found him trying to take credit for starting the discussion to be scummy.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked - what made you vote NHT in the first place? How did you get it into your mind that NHT had been on "all the bandwagons" when as you've later found there is no supporting evidence at all?

I think I may have been mistaking NHT with another player or few players in this game.

Also, it

is

scummy for you to ask whether the vig is killing or not. He can claim any kills in the morning. Meanwhile, knowledge of whether he is killing or not can help a potential scum roleblocker to decide whether he needs to target Reckoner at night or can afford to try and target someone he thinks might be a cop or doctor.

Okay thanks for explaining that. However, I still have a feeling the mafia will be using their powers on Reckoner.

[Wickedestjr]

For what it's worth, I redid the expected values. These numbers were generated under the assumption that lynch and vig kills are random and that no party targets Reckoner (and that Reckoner is actually town vig). Values given are expected values following the Day 2 lynch.

Expected Values

Reckoner Kills

Townies Remaining=5.9857... (7111/1188)
Scum Remaining=2.1254... (2525/1188)

Reckoner Doesn't Kill

Townies Remaining=6.5758... (217/33)
Scum Remaining=2.4242... (80/33)

Wait, so the expected number of people remaining tomorrow is 10 if
reckoner doesn't kill? That doesn't make sense, because after we lynch somebody there will be eleven people left, so this means that
one person will die tonight. One person will have died from the mafia, but who would have killed the other
two people?The number of townies remaining contradicts the number of scum remaining if reckoner doesn't kill. I'm not saying the information is incorrect though.

The expected number of townies after N1 would be about 6.5, so that would mean there would be about 3.5 scum left. The expected number of scum after N1 would be about 2.5, so that would mean there would be about 7.5 townies left. The average number of townies for these two cases is 7 townies, and the average number of scum for these two cases is 3 scum. So I think the expected result tomorrow would be;

7 town - 3 scum

But then we would have to lynch scum at D2 or mafia would win. So reckoner not killing would put us in a pretty dangerous position.

Looking at the possibility if he does kill;

The number of expected town left would be 6, and the number of expected scum left would be 2. For their to be 6 town left there would have to be 4 scum left, and for their to be 2 scum left, there would have to be 8 town left. The average number of town and the average number of scum for these two cases would yield;

7 town - 3 scum


Ah!!! So it actually doesn't matter if reckoner makes a kill according to

my

calculations.

[Wickedestjr]

As for Wicked, I'm going to upgrade to a vote.

Vote: Wicked

I just don't like contradictions. I feel that I was wrong in the case of DeathRowKitty. Perhaps not too far off the mark, but the scummyness I saw in DRK pales in comparison to Wicked's.

Why exactly are you voting me?

[Wickedestjr]

Life? I'm a nerd, so you'll have to explain that to me

Question for no one in particular: Let's say wolfram doesn't come back and gets replaced. Do we immediately go after his replacement or wait for his replacement to post a bit?

In my opinion we should watch wolf's replacement very closely if he does get replaced.

[Wickedestjr]

I assure you, my only wish is to see scum gone. My main suspects at this point are Wicked, DRK, and NHT.

How are we your three biggest suspects? Please give explanations for me, DRK, and NHT.

[CoCo]

Wicked, I don't buy your explanation concerning your contradiction. Instead, your post seems to have an air of 'meh' to it. You addressed the response but not the issue. Read the posts you made and come up with something better.

Bet you respond to this post instead.

Everyone, read Wicked's poor response to his obvious contradiction.
Busted!
Wicked ignored his own crap and instead backpedals. I 'think what I meant to say was...' (paraphrase). Cripes! You 'think?'

One should ALWAYS know what they say.

[Wickedestjr]

CoCo's suspicions are starting to bother me. He suspected me after I (at the time) mis-labeled him as scummy. He suspected NHT after he went after CoCo. He called lobster scummy after lobster voted for him. The only person he's suspicous of who didn't in some way attack him is wicked and if we look back at his post about wicked.

This is a really good point.

Vote: CoCo

[stuntkeyboardist]

CoCo, please give concrete evidence as to why your suspect qax, wicked, and lobster. Telling us to go back and find it for ourselves is not being supportive by any means. like I said before CITE INFORMATION. And dont call Wicked out on his bad responses when yours are just as bad.

[Wickedestjr]

In the interest of getting something started:

Vote: Wickedestjr

This is the second time you've stopped posting on this game while still posting on other games, both while someone was questioning you.

I still think that canadianbovine's revotes and unvotes for the same person scummier, so my vote remains on him/her.

I never said that I thought the revote was scummy.

And how is that not claiming that CB's revote/unvote is scummy, which you just said you didn't do?

Anything you'd like to say about this?

The reason why I have talked in my other games and not this one, was because I was catching up in one of them. I know this is 100% my fault, but if you feel it is a reason to vote me, then go ahead, but I am not the kind of player that lurks, I don't see any point in lurking, because you are going to have to post sooner or later, and it also defeats the purpose of playing the game. Before today, I had only read the first fifteen pages of this game, so this was a day for me to catch up.

[stuntkeyboardist]

Let me add to my post to explain why you suspect DRK and myself as well. Damn, who

dont

you suspect?

More info please on your vote wicked. I understand from your above posts that you dont like CoCo, but it seems more like you're voting him because he's voting you. Not based on his suspects.

[CoCo]

This is a really good point.

Vote: CoCo

[/quote]

OMGUS?

[CoCo]

^Bad quoting on my part. I think Wicked is attacking me because he can't explain his own contradiction nor can he fend off my vote for him logically.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked, I don't buy your explanation concerning your contradiction. Instead, your post seems to have an air of 'meh' to it. You addressed the response but not the issue. Read the posts you made and come up with something better.

Bet you respond to this post instead.

Everyone, read Wicked's poor response to his obvious contradiction.
Busted!
Wicked ignored his own crap and instead backpedals. I 'think what I meant to say was...' (paraphrase). Cripes! You 'think?'

One should ALWAYS know what they say.

Well, I'm sorry but that is the truth. I don't remember what I intended in that post. I said "I think" because I wasn't positive about it, but I am 90% sure of it.

[PsychoSniper]

Vote Count:

Wickedestjr – 3 (CoCo, DeathRowKitty, xRECKONERx)
CoCo – 2 (lobstermania, Wickedestjr)
qax42 – 2 (canadianbovine, nohandtyper)
xRECKONERx – 1 (My Milked Eek)
Wolframnhart – 1 (ChannelDelibird)
canadianbovine – 1 (qax42)


Not voting:

wolframnhart, Conspicuous_other

[Wickedestjr]

@NHT - I am not voting CoCo because he is voting me. I am voting him because first he says "I'm very pro-town" and then when DRK pointed out that CoCo was suspicious of most of the people that were voting him, that's what really convinced me. I am not sure if I want him lynched, but I do want some answers from him.

[CoCo]

CoCo, please give concrete evidence as to why your suspect qax, wicked, and lobster. Telling us to go back and find it for ourselves is not being supportive by any means. like I said before CITE INFORMATION. And dont call Wicked out on his bad responses when yours are just as bad.

Missed this post. As I've said before, its a forum issue and I'm new to the site. If I had a way to flat out link posts I would not ask people to dig up the posts I refer to. I can only quote one at a time. I'm sure as I get used to the forums here, I will become a better player when it comes to software. For now, those of you familiar with these boards would do well to look into the allegations I bring.

Please trust me for now when I say I am pro-town. All I can do at this point is observe.

[PsychoSniper]

wolframnhart hasn't picked up his prod.

I forgot to state that in the rules, but I will give prodded players 48 hrs to respond to the prod or post.

wolframnhart's time will expire in about 20 minutes' time, so unless he somehow arrives an posts before then, I will start looking for a replacement.

[CoCo]

@NHT - I am not voting CoCo because he is voting me. I am voting him because first he says "I'm very pro-town" and then when DRK pointed out that CoCo was suspicious of most of the people that were voting him, that's what really convinced me. I am not sure if I want him lynched, but I do want some answers from him.

So, are you pro-town?
Because a lot of info will be gathered with your response...

[CoCo]

wolframnhart hasn't picked up his prod.

I forgot to state that in the rules, but I will give prodded players 48 hrs to respond to the prod or post.

wolframnhart's time will expire in about 20 minutes' time, so unless he somehow arrives an posts before then, I will start looking for a replacement.

*joke* Replacements are clearly a scum tactic! *joke*

[stuntkeyboardist]

CoCo, please give concrete evidence as to why your suspect qax, wicked, and lobster. Telling us to go back and find it for ourselves is not being supportive by any means. like I said before CITE INFORMATION. And dont call Wicked out on his bad responses when yours are just as bad.

Missed this post. As I've said before, its a forum issue and I'm new to the site. If I had a way to flat out link posts I would not ask people to dig up the posts I refer to. I can only quote one at a time. I'm sure as I get used to the forums here, I will become a better player when it comes to software. For now, those of you familiar with these boards would do well to look into the allegations I bring.

Please trust me for now when I say I am pro-town. All I can do at this point is observe.

You could just say the number of the post... That's what I do a lot because I too dont like that there is no option to compile quotes. If they are important though, I just open the forum in a new tab and copy and paste as many quotes as I like. However you do it, even if it take a bit more time, I'd like to see what you're talking about instead of just saying "All of so and so's posts are scummy. Go look."

[DeathRowKitty]

Wait, so the expected number of people remaining tomorrow is 10 if
reckoner doesn't kill? That doesn't make sense, because after we lynch somebody there will be eleven people left, so this means that
one person will die tonight. One person will have died from the mafia, but who would have killed the other
two people?The number of townies remaining contradicts the number of scum remaining if reckoner doesn't kill. I'm not saying the information is incorrect though.

The expected number is 9, as reflected in my calculations. Two town lynches + one NK. Also, it seems NHT and I assumed 3 scum, since 1/3 seems a bit high for the fraction of scum in the game. As for the numbers, refer to Post 394.

[DeathRowKitty]

For now, I still don't like Wicked's posts, but I never felt they were a good enough reason to vote him. I just wanted to make him post, so

Unvote

.

Please trust me for now when I say I am pro-town. All I can do at this point is observe.

A bit odd you would go back to saying you're pro-town after we called you out on it the first time. Add that to your seemingly OMGUS suspicions, defensive posts, and the fact that you're going after Wicked instead of responding and you're starting to look pretty scummy.

Vote: CoCo

@MME
Do you still feel the need to keep a vote on Reckoner?