Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[X]

HowardRoark, your last three posts have been a lot of data without any conclusions. I mean, you draw conclusions (Lowell and Charter), but I don't see on what grounds.

Similarly, I didn't get anything out of the ekiM analysis. When someone is mentioned positively by scum, that doesn't mean they're likely to be scum. Last game I was scum in I buddied extensively to a townie; everyone thought we were scum together. (They lynched him first, and I basically got off free.)

TDC has not yet picked up my PM asking for prods, but nonetheless, Caboose should show his face.

[Seraphim]

Alright, I fixed my computer. Rereading...

[Korts]

* inHimshallibe, charter, and Korts were all after Seraphim and Mufassa

Bordering on false. I never went against Mufasa barring a very short period where I thought he couldn't have known that his role was Jack of All Trades.

[ekiM]

X, I don't think that's an especially fair representation of my analysis. I wasn't just listing times people were mentioned positively. Actually I don't think I used that even once. Most of the observations are of the Italians casting aspersions on other players. Yes, this is possibly distancing, but I think it's far more likely to be used against non-Italians. The tells are obviously of different strengths, but things like "Caboose continues to defend mufasa. If mufasa comes up scum caboose has to be next. I normally don't like chain lynching but this one seems like a gimme." are pretty indicative. I can't see scum lining up a lynch on a partner like that, when for all they knew Mufasa could easily have been another scum faction.

Also the main point was explaining my Lowell vote---total non-interaction with both Italians D1 is somewhat suspicious, and he's done very little since replacing in.

[SpyreX]

In my rereading I'm getting a whole new set of concerns. Especially around charter who has been fairly absent as of yet. Expect something tonight.

[HowardRoark]

As far as

Mixologist

Lowell goes . . . it's about a complete lack of content.

In regards to charter . . . read 741 which spawned from the end of 740.

Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

I don't get it.

What don't you get? populartajo's lack of understanding that he was protected?

[Adel]

I'm still without access at home, so I've asked Adel to provide vote counts for the time being (a week, in theory). If someone needs Proddage, just PM me.
I'll keep checking in once a day or so.

I'll post a votecount within 12 hours. I will not prod people, since TDC should be back soon.

[SpyreX]

I sat and reread this entire game. More than once.

And I actually came to a few realizations, as well as probably the rest of the Italian Mafia.

So, to start this is what we've been looking at:

Russians:
OozingGolfBall, 1-Shot Vigilante, Russian Mafia
alvinz95, Multitasker, Upper Roccisi Neighborhood, Russian Mafia
iamausername, 1-Shot Vigilante, Russian Mafia

Italians:
inHimshallibe, Godfather, Upper Roccisi Neighborhood, Italian Mafia
ThAdmiral, Doctor, Italian Mafia

So, I'm going to go on record and say that I bet the Russians are dead. So, last night we had a Russian Kill / Italian Kill / ? Kill

My reasoning for this is simple: Balance. Having an extra shot, albeit it even one, is one of the most powerful tools a scum team could have. The Russians have had two.

However, I'm going to also go on record with this: This setup isn't symmetrical. With what we've seen from the Italians I'm not buying into a 4:4 setup. Its 3:4 or even perhaps 3:5 (I personally lean 3:4). The Italians are a more conventional (if not strong) mafia: they had a doctor to protect against the myriad of kills, a godfather to mess with investigations (which helps affirm caboose since there has been no CC) and I'd imagine the other two are PR's as well.

So, with that said, who do I think they are?

Charter & Mixologist (Lowell)

Lets take a look back at our compatriots:

Charter was fairly, to me, pro-town day 1. However, there's a few problems. Charter was fairly adamant in his scumcalls early:

unvote, vote OGB
No one cares. You're only trying to fire up wild goose chases instead of hunt scum or take a stance on anything in the RVS.

I think Caboose, Seraphim, and OGB are all scumbuddies.

Caboose is scum too by the way.

AHAHAHAHAHA
Prolly copied from the front page. Good catch. Lynch Mufasa, then lynch Caboose.

Yep, Howard is scum too. All of this is just there to sound good, more not adding anything to the stew. Once again, no conclusions drawn other than his vague baseless assertation of my play being "questionable", whatever that is supposed to mean.

but THEN (in the same post as above) we get:

FOS Mixologist for 221. That post was a huge pile of fitting in with the crowd.

Now, thats the first FOS this game, and after the above fire it really stands out. Lets continue:

Absolutely. Not all games have a doc. I'd probably want to lynch this person.

It seems like quite the preparation for an inevitable doc claim coming from someone.

I'd also like to say, that Mufasa later said he couldn't vig. Something the mafia cannot fake easily. Just increases his scumminess tenfold.

Again, considering what happened this seems even MORE funny. Part of me thinks the last MIGHT have been an Italian vig. Double-plus bonus if Charter is said vig.

Then, of course:

FOS inHim.

I am running out of FOS's. SpyreX, help me!

Another FOS. On a flipped Italian. Hmmmm. He does rectify this in his next post (saying he's an outright scumbag) but then we move to:

I don't think I've ever seen scum try and claim vig. They're more than welcome to try though, but I bet it won't work.

Again. Seriously.

Then the late vote on OGB (which fits my Italian / Russian idea).

This is up to post 23ish of his 44 (all Day 1)

Then, after lynch right back on Mufasa. Not the vote, but its back there. A decent amount of back-and-forth about Sera.

A couple that stand out:

post 356- I don't think there is anything to get from ThAd. I agreed with a bunch of what he said, which makes me think he probably didn't say anything about his mafia partners (or innoculous things or just very little)
I do see why you think Caboose and ThAd could be partners, but early on it looked like Caboose and OGB could be partners, so Caboose could be a great lynch regardless.
I think you're reading too much into what ThAd posted, I don't think he left that many blatent links to buddies.

Which is interesting when you consider ThAdmirals very relaxed attitude around Charter (especially considering the "lynch the doc" business / ThAd being a doc).

So we come out to Day 3:

THANK YOU WHOEVER KILLED MUFASA. Now I can return to catching scumbags full time.

vote darkdude for his last ditch attempt to save alvinz.
If Caboose has a better lynch candidate, I'm all ears.

Should rofl's mason buddy claim? I think he should.

Mufasa was a crutch for the 5 fairly low content day 2 posts.

Then the business with the mason claim (which DOES make sense for scum to do - its nice to know who the confirmed town IS so you dont approach them in the incorrect way).

Then we get this today:

Currently thinking ekim or tajo is scum. Tajo's first read of everyone had both ThAd and inHim as prob town. For whatever reason, was devoid in lynching Alvinz.

ekim, his darkdude vote, 484, I feel like that was a giant pile of trying to fit in. He never mentioned inHim. He had this wierd addition to my back and forth with ThAd day one.

vote ekim
Think he's more likely to be scum.

The italics really is a setoff post. That IS what Charter has done with Mix thus far...

and to end:

That paraphrase Seraphim/X. Don't forget it. Also, both of you need to do it, in your own words. I don't want a hammer before this.

I really don't care if Mixologist posts or not, there's really little room for him to be scum in this game.

Yea.

Also, and I feel a bit dirty about this modfom: Mixologist IS a Power Role OR Scum (or both). Why else would you PM a mod during night? However, with what we've seen from the town roles....

Additionally, Lowell has provided little actual "content". Oddly enough his list gives charter a townvibe but he somehow doesn't make his list of pro-town players...

I feel pretty damn confident about this. Far more than I do with whats been happening today so far.

Unvote, Vote: Charter

[charter]

At Yos Beach Bash. Will post later.

[Adel]

Vote Count

Lowell (1): HowardRoark
charter (1): SpyreX

Not Voting (8): Caboose, charter, ekiM, HowardRoark, Korts, Lowell, populartajo, Seraphim, , X

6 to lynch.

I'm shooting TDC a pm asking when he plans on being back. If something happened to him, never fear, I'll be able to pick up the game and keep it going It is on my watched topics list now.

[Adel]

p.s. Yes, that does mean that I have a complete list of all night actions and and role assignments and QT threads, and TDC kept all of that info up to date.

[TDC]

Yeah, I'm still here, no worries.
Prodding Caboose. Everyone else I was asked to prod has posted in the mean time.
I

should

be fully back in business on monday.

[X]

X, I don't think that's an especially fair representation of my analysis. I wasn't just listing times people were mentioned positively. Actually I don't think I used that even once. Most of the observations are of the Italians casting aspersions on other players. Yes, this is possibly distancing, but I think it's far more likely to be used against non-Italians. The tells are obviously of different strengths, but things like "Caboose continues to defend mufasa. If mufasa comes up scum caboose has to be next. I normally don't like chain lynching but this one seems like a gimme." are pretty indicative. I can't see scum lining up a lynch on a partner like that, when for all they knew Mufasa could easily have been another scum faction.

Also the main point was explaining my Lowell vote---total non-interaction with both Italians D1 is somewhat suspicious, and he's done very little since replacing in.

Okay, the non-interaction is interesting, but the bulk of the post was giving town points for negative mentions from Italians. As logical and methodical as I try to be, I can never grasp the use of an arbitrary number-based method to find scum. Anyway, the point about Lowell is accepted, just most of the post didn't seem to be along those lines.

SpyreX's post, on the other hand, is fairly convincing.

[ekiM]

It's not a number based method. I just didn't have time to go into detail for each post why I thought it made someone more or less suspicious. I think most of it is pretty self-explanatory anyway, but if not please do ask.

Believe I already did this, but:

Vote: Lowell

[populartajo]

Ill catch up this night.

[Adel]

I started the votecount from the wrong post.

Votecount

X (1): Lowell
ekiM (1): charter
Caboose (2): populartajo, X
Lowell (2): ekiM, HowardRoark
charter (1): SpyreX

Not Voting: Caboose, Korts, Seraphim

[Lowell]

Woah I got votes. Not cool. Someone tell me what I've done wrong.

[Korts]

Hrm. I think I'll have to stop hounding for a Russian lynch. Balancewise it's not that probable, and no-one seems to agree with me that SpyreX is very much implied as a Russian.

vote: tajo

for previously expressed suspicions.

There's a reasonable case for a charter/Lowell Italian remnant. I'm willing to give my vote to charter or Lowell in lieu of a tajo wagon.

[Caboose]

Sorry I haven't posted, haven't had much time.
I'll post sometime this weekend.

[Lowell]

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, if anyone cares.

[Seraphim]

...*cough*

Which neighborhood? Are you guys the Middle Roccisi Neighborhood or what?

[HowardRoark]

@Serahpim: You owe us a response to what X has said.

@charter: You need to respond to what Lowell has claimed.

@Lowell: Your partial claim doesn't change my view on you.

@Caboose: You owe us a good analysis.

[Korts]

I'm not convinced of the Lowell claim's truthfulness. Seems an awful lot like a fakeclaim based on previous reveals/claims; this is especially true because based on the fact that Lowell claims not to be able to vouch for charter's alignment, it seems that their group name should be also something-something neighbourhood; yet he claims masons, not neighbours, which would be the first thing that would pop into my mind thinking of my hypothetical role PM.

What is your group name, Lowell?

Caboose, the weekend is almost over. Please don't continue to procrastinate. Either sit down now and catch up, or ask to be replaced--we need your input most of all.

Looking at the vote count: X and tajo, what the fuck are you doing still voting Caboose? The fact that our cop is lazy doesn't change the fact that he's like 95% confirmed as town. Me, I don't see the utility of a scum aligned alignment cop, so I don't see any argument for why his procrastination is scummy instead of simply anti-town. Are you encouraging a policy lynch on a role-confirmed cop?

tajo, charter, or Lowell here. X is a possibility too, although his Neighbour claim and his other actions and posts so far are mitigating factors; I also still endorse looking at a SpyreX flip.

[charter]

Ok, my attempt to catch up..

689- Utterly ridiculous vote on Caboose. Just because scum is too dumb to catch breadcrumbs doesn't make Caboose scum.
690- Still need to go and find this for ekim..
695- Horrible vote by X. He just flip flopped because tajo told him to.
698- Spyrex, why do you want to lynch a claimed cop who so far has been very accurate? Why do you even need to think about lynching him?
699- X, just because Caboose is lazy doesn't make him scum. He's done way more to help the town than you have, maybe we should just lynch you then.
716- ekim, why can X and Seraphim only be scum together? It's not possible one is scum and one is playing poorly? Why not?
720's- tajo claiming he's not suspicious of Caboose but leaving his vote on there. Also, he's doing more pointless setup speculation rather than giving us who he is suspicious of now. tajo is scum.

unvote, vote tajo

733- I don't like how tajo is arguing with Korts. Korts is making a lot of sense these past few days, there isn't much to argue with him about.
741- Howard, I don't see how me catching a scumbag makes me scum. No one else was remotely interested in lynching inHim day one, and I had other people I wanted lynched more than inHim. This is all obvious.
757- You know I like to tunnel on my scumreads.

Me and Lowell are indeed in the Seaside Neighborhood. I also believe him to be town based off what Mixologist said in there Night 1. His suspects matched mine at the time.

tajo is scum still.

[X]

@Serahpim: You owe us a response to what X has said.

@charter: You need to respond to what Lowell has claimed.

@Lowell: Your partial claim doesn't change my view on you.

@Caboose: You owe us a good analysis.

QFT.

Looking at the vote count: X and tajo, what the fuck are you doing still voting Caboose? The fact that our cop is lazy doesn't change the fact that he's like 95% confirmed as town. Me, I don't see the utility of a scum aligned alignment cop, so I don't see any argument for why his procrastination is scummy instead of simply anti-town. Are you encouraging a policy lynch on a role-confirmed cop?

He's not in lynch territory right now, but if he doesn't give us anything this weekend (as in, today), I would support lynching him. It's not like it's recent procrastination or anything. He hasn't given us ANYTHING but investigation results. He's not 95% confirmed as Town. He's 100% confirmed as Cop.