Mini 807 - Save the Mafia! (Game Over!)

[xRECKONERx]

I still think that canadianbovine's revotes and unvotes for the same person scummier, so my vote remains on him/her.

I never said that I thought the revote was scummy.

And how is that not claiming that CB's revote/unvote is scummy, which you just said you didn't do?

[ChannelDelibird]

Sorry about the quintuple post?! I could've sworn I only posted that once.

Mod, can you delete a few of those? They're a bit in the way of things.

XD Such superb irony.

---------------------------------------------

Wicked - what made you vote NHT in the first place? How did you get it into your mind that NHT had been on "all the bandwagons" when as you've later found there is no supporting evidence at all?

Also, it

is

scummy for you to ask whether the vig is killing or not. He can claim any kills in the morning. Meanwhile, knowledge of whether he is killing or not can help a potential scum roleblocker to decide whether he needs to target Reckoner at night or can afford to try and target someone he thinks might be a cop or doctor.

[xRECKONERx]

I will say this:

I will only kill at night if I'm positive on someone's scumminess.

[stuntkeyboardist]

I will say this:

I will only kill at night if I'm positive on someone's scumminess.

Statistically speaking, you making a kill regardless would help the town immensely. Let me explain. The odds of scum right now are about 3/12 or 1/4. If an NS (non-scum) is lynched, then the scum kill an NS, the odds change to 3/10 being scum. Since you cant kill who the scum kill, you will be forced to attempt the 3/10 odds (not including yourself (so 1/3 for you). If you do kill an NS, the odds them become 1/3 for scum. Subtract those who know they are town, as well as you since your kill would indicate NS, and the odds change again to 3/7 for us (3/8 for you) to find the scum with a definite NS (you) plus ourselves.

So in other words. Today we have about a 1 in four chance of lynching scum. Throwing in Reckoner's vig kill, that will more than double our chances of killing scum (because te odds will have changed to either 1/5 or 3/10 depending on how we lynch). After that, we have a definite safe, plus we know ourselves (those of us who are NS) making the odds much greater for the town.

Of the three killings today, there can be a max of two scum kills. The table shows this:

0 scum kills = 3/9 overall, or 3/7 individually (.43)
1 scum kill = 2/9 overall, or 2/7 individually (.29)
2 scum kills = 1/9 overall, or 1/7 individually

If you were to not use your vig kill, these would be the odds tomorrow:

0 scum kills = 3/10 overall, or 3/9 individually (.33)
1 scum kill = 2/10 overall, or 2/9 individually. (.22)

As you can see, our odds are MUCH higher tomorrow regardless of whether you kill scum or not. Part of the reason being is that we know you're safe. If you get killed in the night though... well that's a different story because you wouldnt get your kill and our odds are right back to the first set.

If I wasnt clear on this, please feel free to ask. I know there is quite a bit of info here, but I'd be happy to clarify when I get back (in about four hours or so) because this is actually quite important. I'll be here for another 20 minutes though.

[stuntkeyboardist]

Just to add to my earlier post, that's based on completely random killings. Since we throw in logic and reason, our odds will still increase in all cases, but since we throw in the logic/reason twice when Reckoner makes his vig kill, our odds will then make him killing tonight even greater than before.

[DeathRowKitty]

As you can see, our odds are MUCH higher tomorrow regardless of whether you kill scum or not.

I could be wrong, but isn't that offset by the increased chance of losing townies at night?

since we throw in the logic/reason twice when Reckoner makes his vig kill, our odds will then make him killing tonight even greater than before.

I'm not sure we'll learn much from Reckoner's kill, especially since he can just tell us and we know (or at least suspect very strongly) that he's town. All i can see it telling us is whether or not someone who's already dead is town or scum, which I don't see helping us all that much unless that person is scum.

If I get time (I probably have the time now), I'll try to run the straight two-day probabilities to see what looks better if we don't consider what we can learn from the kills.

[Conspicuous_other]

@Mod: Away until friday, don't expect to hear anything from me.

[CoCo]

I still think that canadianbovine's revotes and unvotes for the same person scummier, so my vote remains on him/her.

I never said that I thought the revote was scummy.

And how is that not claiming that CB's revote/unvote is scummy, which you just said you didn't do?

This intrigues me...

Unvote.

FOS Wicked.

[stuntkeyboardist]

As you can see, our odds are MUCH higher tomorrow regardless of whether you kill scum or not.

I could be wrong, but isn't that offset by the increased chance of losing townies at night?

Slightly, but note that he cant kill himself or an NS that the scum will be killing. Plus throwing in the logic/reason, he would have a 1/3 (random) chance, but higher with his reason.

In the end, we would have a definite safe, which is pretty important. Plus a rather high chance that 1 scum will be killed based on our two attempts and good odds. Yes, it's a bit risky, but I feel (and I'm sure I'm not the only one) that it's worth it.

[DeathRowKitty]

Assume all kills (besides scum kills) are random and that Reckoner attempts to kill N1 no matter what.

The expected values after D2:

Townies Remaining=5.8659 (2581/440)
Scum Remaining=2.225 (89/40)

The first number alarms me a bit (almost a 1/pi chance of killing 4 townies-I should probably check that calculation again). Time to check what happens if he doesn't kill.

[DeathRowKitty]

EBWOP: Forgot to acocunt for the fact that he won't kill himself . That could change things a bit...

[stuntkeyboardist]

since we throw in the logic/reason twice when Reckoner makes his vig kill, our odds will then make him killing tonight even greater than before.

I'm not sure we'll learn much from Reckoner's kill, especially since he can just tell us and we know (or at least suspect very strongly) that he's town. All i can see it telling us is whether or not someone who's already dead is town or scum, which I don't see helping us all that much unless that person is scum.

I understand what you mean, but we dont know for sure that he's town, which would also be very beneficial information. I strongly feel he is, as I've stated before, but to be 100%, he would have to make the kill.

Please, others respond to these stats as well. Stats can actually be one of our best tools in the game, but we need the opinions and details that may have been missed.

[DeathRowKitty]

For what it's worth, I redid the expected values. These numbers were generated under the assumption that lynch and vig kills are random and that no party targets Reckoner (and that Reckoner is actually town vig). Values given are expected values following the Day 2 lynch.

Expected Values

Reckoner Kills

Townies Remaining=5.9857... (7111/1188)
Scum Remaining=2.1254... (2525/1188)

Reckoner Doesn't Kill

Townies Remaining=6.5758... (217/33)
Scum Remaining=2.4242... (80/33)


This doesn't account for anything but straight probabilities, so don't linger too much on it. Anyone have an opinion on the situation?

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah.

I mean unless we have a Doc, I'm probably gone tonight anyway. I'm no good at math so I'll bow out of the calculations debate.

[stuntkeyboardist]

Yeah.

I mean unless we have a Doc, I'm probably gone tonight anyway. I'm no good at math so I'll bow out of the calculations debate.

For what it's worth, the scum doesnt know what you're actually going to do. If you dont kill and the scum dont kill you, then the town has a great target for tomorrow. If they do kill you, then we have a lot to work with based on what happened today to hunt down the scum. Based on what has happened so far, the outcome depends on how we react and use the information given to us. This could work out to be great for the NS all around.

Still looking for more opinions though. And thank you DRK for your calculations. I havent been in Stats in over a year now, so my odds were based primarily on basic concepts and logic.

Looking at your calculations though, the amount of scum become:

Reckoner kills: .265
Reckoner doesnt kill: .269

or about 1/4 (very roughly). So by your calculations, it would be a wash either way, but slightly leaning toward not killing.

C'mon people, we need more opinions than just DRK's and mine here.

[PsychoSniper]

I've deleted DRK's extra posts, but I need to leave on some urgent errand, so the vote counts will be updated later tonight (which is probably next day for many of you, depending on where you live).

[lobstermania]

Looking at your calculations though, the amount of scum become:

Reckoner kills: .265
Reckoner doesnt kill: .269

or about 1/4 (very roughly). So by your calculations, it would be a wash either way, but slightly leaning toward not killing.

C'mon people, we need more opinions than just DRK's and mine here.

It seems to me that the more discussion we create about xRECKx's possible NK's only furthers my belief that he will be NK'd by the scum. I say xRECKx should just go for it, since he's got nothing to lose.

[ChannelDelibird]

As far as I'm concerned, all this mathematical discussion is distracting us from lynching scum. Leave the vig to do what he feels is best.

I am starting to consider the possibility of Wickedscum, but I still want to hear from wolfram. Where is he?

[DeathRowKitty]

It seems our best lynch options at the moment aren't posting, so I wouldn't exactly say the mathematical discussion is distracting us.

It seems to me that the more discussion we create about xRECKx's possible NK's only furthers my belief that he will be NK'd by the scum.

As long as we don't discuss who Reckoner should kill and as long as Reckoner doesn't give us too much of his own input, I don't think our discussion will change that too much. Ultimately, all decisions are up to him, regardless of what we say.

This discussion will probably stop almost completely anyway when either wolfram or qax starts posting.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, it

is

scummy for you to ask whether the vig is killing or not. He can claim any kills in the morning.

Meanwhile, knowledge of whether he is killing or not can help a potential scum roleblocker to decide whether he needs to target Reckoner at night or can afford to try and target someone he thinks might be a cop or doctor.

Seriously, people.

SHUT THE FUCK UP.

[PsychoSniper]

Vote Count:

qax42 – 2 (canadianbovine, nohandtyper)
xRECKONERx – 1 (My Milked Eek)
Wolframnhart – 1 (ChannelDelibird)
Wickedestjr – 1 (xRECKONERx)
canadianbovine – 1 (qax42)


Not voting:

wolframnhart, lobstermania, DeathRowKitty, Conspicuous_other, CoCo, Wickedestjr

[PsychoSniper]

Sending out prod to wolframnhart

[xRECKONERx]

Also, it

is

scummy for you to ask whether the vig is killing or not. He can claim any kills in the morning.

Meanwhile, knowledge of whether he is killing or not can help a potential scum roleblocker to decide whether he needs to target Reckoner at night or can afford to try and target someone he thinks might be a cop or doctor.

Seriously, people.

SHUT THE FUCK UP.

QFT

[CoCo]

I also suck at math. Oh well.

I see no need to discuss who Reckoner should or shouldn't be targeting. You know, because a vigilante is someone who "takes the law" into their own hands. And that's all you'll hear from me on that subject.

As for Wicked, I'm going to upgrade to a vote.

Vote: Wicked

I just don't like contradictions. I feel that I was wrong in the case of DeathRowKitty. Perhaps not too far off the mark, but the scummyness I saw in DRK pales in comparison to Wicked's.

I too would like to hear from wolframnhart. Not because of the lurking (real life does happen), but I want to see what observations he brings to the table.

Finally, there is something about Qax42 bothering me, but I can't put my finger on it. However I am observing his posts with care at this time.

If I have time, I'll check this thread again before I go to bed to see if there are any new developments in addition to trying to pin down what it is about Qax42 that has me unnerved.

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, since everyone else seems to agree discussing Reckoner hurts us, I'm off the topic. Sorry.

real life does happen

Life? I'm a nerd, so you'll have to explain that to me

Question for no one in particular: Let's say wolfram doesn't come back and gets replaced. Do we immediately go after his replacement or wait for his replacement to post a bit?