Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[X]

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

I don't follow.

However I can and do follow Kort's logic behind Caboose fairly well - except for the fact its almost Shrodinger's NK: by stating it SHOULD happen, it now most likely will not.

That has nothing to do with Shrödinger's Cat - it's more of a jynx. But good observation.

Korts, if I read your last post accurately, you think that SpyreX is Russian for bussing OGB throughout D1 and alvinz as soon as investigation results came out?
See, he also didn't really talk about I Am much, nor me (X), ekiM, populartajo, and probably others. So the ignoring thing doesn't go far, and bussing OGB throughout the entire D1 isn't optimal.

[Korts]

X, there you go again, ignoring some of the points I make and mentioning only those that are easily dismissed.

Here is a list of the things that make me suspicious of SpyreX, points listed by order of relevance/strength of evidence, important things bolded:

- alvinz ISO 10: he mentions

rofl and SpyreX as the exceptions

to the statement that everyone on his wagon has "either wagonned, done little, or [has] acted scummy". In contrast,

SpyreX's reason is no better

than a lot of the people who voted alvinz

simply because of Caboose's results

; there is also

no prior suspicion from SpyreX regarding alvinz

, in fact the

only

mention of alvinz from SpyreX is

- in SpyreX ISO 5, where

he tries to derail Caboose's early fixation with alvinz

.

- in alvinz' final outbreak post, he claims that there are at least 3 scum on his wagon; superimposing the dead players' list on the alvinz-voters' list, that leaves 3 out of 4. Even considering that there can't be 3 more Russian scum I doubt alvinz was completely bluffing; in addition I doubt that at that point (cop guilty on alvinz) Russians would have tried anything else but fervent bussing; therefore the assumption is that if there are any Russians left, which I suspect to be true, they're likely among the four living alvinz-voters. One of them is SpyreX.

- no relevant mention of SpyreX from iamausername, despite the fact that they were both active users.

The fact that he was on OGB's wagon pretty early could easily have been pre-planned for town cred, or otherwise an early realization that he was a useless weight on the Russian mafia's shoulders.

[populartajo]

Korts, what do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

8 scum in a 23 players game, which include 3 unknown roles, 1 mafia doctor, 1 multitasker, 2 1-shot vigs, 1 godfather seems balanced to you?

[populartajo]

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

I don't follow.

The explanation is that we have confirmation that he is a cop. Even if he is scum, he is a source of very easy to verify information.

[Korts]

Korts, what do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

8 scum in a 23 players game, which include 3 unknown roles, 1 mafia doctor, 1 multitasker, 2 1-shot vigs, 1 godfather seems balanced to you?

Without knowing all the town power roles, there's no way to judge, and you should know that. It's not unlikely at all that it is balanced.

Why are you so intent on forcing me to hunt Italians specifically?

[Lowell]

I'm a little behind after missing a couple of days, but can someone tell me why knowing which mafia group we're looking for matters?

[Korts]

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

I don't follow.

The explanation is that we have confirmation that he is a cop. Even if he is scum, he is a source of very easy to verify information.

It's not easily and publicly verifiable without another cop, or at least not before a lynch of his investigated target.

[Korts]

I'm a little behind after missing a couple of days, but can someone tell me why knowing which mafia group we're looking for matters?

The connections matter.

[populartajo]

Korts, what do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

8 scum in a 23 players game, which include 3 unknown roles, 1 mafia doctor, 1 multitasker, 2 1-shot vigs, 1 godfather seems balanced to you?

Without knowing all the town power roles, there's no way to judge, and you should know that. It's not unlikely at all that it is balanced.

Why are you so intent on forcing me to hunt Italians specifically?

Ok, Im no expert in balancing things but all the scum we have seen so far have been power roles. 8 scum seems just too much.

About me forcing you to hunt Italians...

I just want you to realize that all the effort you are putting in hunting an hypothetical Russian could be used more optimally in hunting a very likely Italian.

The situation radicates in the aswner to this question: What do you think its more probable: another Russian or another Italian?

[Korts]

Ok, Im no expert in balancing things but all the scum we have seen so far have been power roles. 8 scum seems just too much.

While they have been power roles all of them, we don't know how much power the town has, and whether, for instance, a Multitasker is useful at all.

I think, based on balance alone, an Italian is more likely. Based on the interactions we've seen though, a Russian is just as probable.

[Korts]

Also, who do you think is Italian, then? You got into this argument with me, but it is not relevant to scumhunting in a direct way. I'm also not aware of you having any real suspicions, or at least you haven't expressed them. Who are your top suspects and why?

[populartajo]

Basically Im still here.

Really when I see the list of players alive I think we are facing a very skilled scum. I get a majority of townie/neutral reads here:

05. ekiM - last post feels protown, still neutral, will have to reread him more.
09. populartajo - awesome town
10. Seraphim - prob town
12. Korts - neutral, will need to reread him more.
14. X - neutral leaning townie, will need to reread him
15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.
17. HowardRoark - scummy. very unlikely russian but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since big part of my case against him was his alvinz relationship
19. charter - obv town
20. SpyreX - prob town
21. Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

With the only difference that Im considering leaving Caboose alive for information reasons when massclaim finally reaches.

What about you, Korts?

[Korts]

Me, I'm still on Spyrex, populartajo. In that order. SpyreX is Russianesque, while you're scummy simply of your own accord. I'd get rid of one NK altogether before I go any other way.

[SpyreX]

- alvinz ISO 10: he mentions rofl and SpyreX as the exceptions to the statement that everyone on his wagon has "either wagonned, done little, or [has] acted scummy". In contrast, SpyreX's reason is no better than a lot of the people who voted alvinz simply because of Caboose's results; there is also no prior suspicion from SpyreX regarding alvinz, in fact the only mention of alvinz from SpyreX is

This is true. Alvinz really had no reason to single me out in that instance unless he was trying to push me off the wagon (or, well, do exactly what he did here).

- in SpyreX ISO 5, where he tries to derail Caboose's early fixation with alvinz.

Not

derail

persay, but more simply

understand

- looking at Caboose's day 1 alvinz play only makes sense with the knowledge that he is a cop. Without it, it appears like either a cop out from talking about the actual cases going on OR a very poorly done bus.

So, I asked him why he was fixated because he was fixated.

- in alvinz' final outbreak post, he claims that there are at least 3 scum on his wagon; superimposing the dead players' list on the alvinz-voters' list, that leaves 3 out of 4. Even considering that there can't be 3 more Russian scum I doubt alvinz was completely bluffing; in addition I doubt that at that point (cop guilty on alvinz) Russians would have tried anything else but fervent bussing; therefore the assumption is that if there are any Russians left, which I suspect to be true, they're likely among the four living alvinz-voters. One of them is SpyreX.

This is still built around the premise of another existing Russian, but it DOES make sense considering the natural inclination to spread suspicion. However, I think he used it as the flip-side of the WIFOM jungle: to try and get a mislynch down the road.

- no relevant mention of SpyreX from iamausername, despite the fact that they were both active users.

More of the above manipulations by scum. I'm not sure why IAUN didn't mention me much - the flipside is I didn't mention him much because I thought he was town. Almost as sure as I was of Rofl.

The fact that he was on OGB's wagon pretty early could easily have been pre-planned for town cred, or otherwise an early realization that he was a useless weight on the Russian mafia's shoulders.

Ohh hell yes if I was scum I would have been on that wagon early. Thus why even I think at least one of the earlier votes are scum. When you add in the existance of a second group there's probably scum all over that wagon - low risk lynches day 1 are tech.

Ultimately, I follow this. There's really no misrepresentations of whats happened - just incorrect conclusions on WHY its happened.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again - my play has been sub-par. For whatever reason I just can't "bite" into this. If I'm going to get strung up give me enough time to do a full analysis and we can go from there.

[X]

X, there you go again, ignoring some of the points I make and mentioning only those that are easily dismissed.

Then I misread your case, and why I asked you to restate it rather than requote it.

- alvinz ISO 10: he mentions

rofl and SpyreX as the exceptions

to the statement that everyone on his wagon has "either wagonned, done little, or [has] acted scummy". In contrast,

SpyreX's reason is no better

than a lot of the people who voted alvinz

simply because of Caboose's results

This is a good reason.

there is also

no prior suspicion from SpyreX regarding alvinz

, in fact the

only

mention of alvinz from SpyreX is

- in SpyreX ISO 5, where

he tries to derail Caboose's early fixation with alvinz

.

But Caboose's fixation with alvinz was illogical from any non-Caboose perspective at the time. And as I said before, SpyreX ignored many other players.

- in alvinz' final outbreak post, he claims that there are at least 3 scum on his wagon; superimposing the dead players' list on the alvinz-voters' list, that leaves 3 out of 4. Even considering that there can't be 3 more Russian scum I doubt alvinz was completely bluffing; in addition I doubt that at that point (cop guilty on alvinz) Russians would have tried anything else but fervent bussing; therefore the assumption is that if there are any Russians left, which I suspect to be true, they're likely among the four living alvinz-voters. One of them is SpyreX.

This all comes down to whether you're going to trust the hammered scum.

- no relevant mention of SpyreX from iamausername, despite the fact that they were both active users.

I already addressed this.

The fact that he was on OGB's wagon pretty early could easily have been pre-planned for town cred, or otherwise an early realization that he was a useless weight on the Russian mafia's shoulders.

I understand what you're saying here, but I think it's a nulltell.

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

I don't follow.

The explanation is that we have confirmation that he is a cop. Even if he is scum, he is a source of very easy to verify information.

It's not easily and publicly verifiable without another cop, or at least not before a lynch of his investigated target.

QFT. I'd like to see Caboose post some content. I'll PM TDC for prods on Caboose and Seraphim.

[HowardRoark]

vote Lowell

Seraphim owes us a solid post (especially concerning the night talk paraphrase) and is next in line for the noose in my book.

Caboose should not be a lynch topic today. Once we have a lynch today and see the night results, we can discuss it. However, as semi-confirmed town, he owes us a solid analysis sooner than later.

15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.

Really?!?!? Please elaborate. Mixologist had 10 posts and brought nothing noteworthy to the game. Lowell's first three are "getting caught up" posts.

It's not easily and publicly verifiable without another cop, or at least not before a lynch of his investigated target.

He had a proper result on alvinz95 and skitzer; that makes him semi-confirmed.

Ohh hell yes if I was scum I would have been on that wagon early. Thus why even I think at least one of the earlier votes are scum. When you add in the existance of a second group there's probably scum all over that wagon - low risk lynches day 1 are tech.

alvinz95 lynch: HowardRoark,

roflcopter

, SpyreX,

darkdude, Axelrod, Mufasa, tubby216, Starbuck

, ekiM, X
Early still living voters:

• HowardRoark -- innocent investigation
• Spyrex

That makes your statement an indirect accusation of me (or yourself). If you want to accuse me based on that, then just say it.
At his lynch, there were 19 players alive. That means 10 to lynch. That also means 9 people didn't have to be on the wagon.

Starbuck (2): Seraphim, skitzer
Caboose (2): alvinz95, populartajo
Seraphim (1): Korts
Axelrod (1): charter

Not Voting (3): iamausername, Mixologist, Caboose

{Russian} alvinz95

is voting Caboose -- no surprise
populartajo is voting Caboose -- last post is two days before lynch and prior to Cabose claim (!)
Korts is voting Seraphim -- occupied by a discussion with Starbuck, but stated willingness to hammer and asks for last words one day before lynch
charter is voting

Axelrod

-- last post is three days before lynch and states that if he had three votes they'd be going toward

Mufassa

, HowardRoark, and

Starbuck

(!!)

{Italian} iamusername

is not voting -- an Italian stayed off the wagon; had only one post D2

Mixologist

Lowell is not voting -- last post (overall) is ten days before lynch; Lowell comes in during D2
Caboose is not voting -- last post was one day before lynch and was waiting for claim before dropping the hammer

[HowardRoark]

charter: A Retrospective

All of D1, Mufassa's poor claim is more reason for a lynch than those he actually finds scummy.

Doesn't respond to points made against him. Examples: iso 9 w/ Korts, iso 11 w/ Mixologist.

(16) "FOS inHim." no explanation here
(17) "inHim moves straight on up to full fledged scumbag. Has switched his vote in every single post, and I believe it was always for a current voteleader or someone under a lot of scrutiny. He has also contradicted himself pretty glaringly a few times that I see. I'll be pointing them out in a little bit." But the points never came . . . Italian distancing?

(20) "inHim has cemented his position of scumbag with his latest post." Once again . . . a strong accusation of inHimshallibe . . . and nothing to go with it.
(21) "inHim I'm actually not as sure about" a bit of distancing.

No further mention of iAmusername. He had a few exchanges with ThAdmiral, but nothing of significance.

There's my strong second choice.

[SpyreX]

I was referring to the OGB lynch, not the Alvinz investigation-driven lynch.

[Korts]

Charter and Caboose need to speak up.

[Korts]

Also, Howard, iamausername was Russian, not Italian. inHim was the Italian.

[ekiM]

Mike, why the Lowell vote?

Living players:
05. ekiM
09. populartajo
10. Seraphim
12. Korts
14. X
15. Mixologist
17. HowardRoark
19. charter
20. SpyreX
21. Caboose

Every post in which inHim mentioned a living player Day 1:

vote: Caboose

I'll be back maybe tomorrow, but I'm checking in and putting my vote on the most likely scum that I see. Mostly the doublespeak on voting OGB and reactions to Mufasa is my reasoning.

inHimshallIbe: I'm sorry but your first post reads scum to me...placing your vote on someone in no danger of being lynched while you catch up so that you seem like you're doing something is very scummy. Please explain your case against Caboose in more detail.

I actually thought he had more than 0 votes at the time I voted. I much prefer a wagon. I have no more detail.

rofl: I dunno, rofl. You haven't seen Mufasa's past play. I've certainly been weighing whether or not he's town in my head.

...

Unvote

Don't like the speed of this wagon at all. Mufasa is definitely still my #1 suspect but pressuring him with votes isn't going to do any good.

unvote

vote: Seraphim

What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

+Seraphim (+ = good/towniepoints, - = bad/possible italian).

Alright, inHimshallibe. In your last two posts, you have demonstrated extreme scumminess. Your first post set off some alarm bells as you put your vote on Caboose who had no wagon on him because of doublespeak(what?) and reactions to Mufasa. You are never questioned on this except by me who mentions it in passing as scummy behavior.

First off, "inHim" will help you out on reducing all the typing.

I am responding to this directly because you did mention it, but probably won't come back to it after this post, unless of course I ruffle some other goose's feathers. Doublespeak, to clarify, would be Caboose's alvinz spiel, which I more or less see as fencesitting (one of my favorite words in my mafia vernacular).

Then, second post.

I actually thought he had more than 0 votes at the time I voted. I much prefer a wagon. I have no more detail.

So you though you were wagoning a player who you vote because of tells you can't elaborate on?

More or less, yes. I like to vote productively, and had I realized Caboose was sitting on no votes, I would have mentioned him, but probably would have wound up voting one of Mufasa or OGB.

What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway?

Urm...that's why I unvoted. Kneejerk reaction was to vote him but that doesn't do anything. If we lynch him, it will be at the end of the day when all avenues of discussion are finished. Voting him serves no purpose as he doesn't need pressure.Hmm, I definitely read that post in the wrong way. I thought you were saying you didn't want to pressure Mufasa any further. I'll look back at it again later.

Since a consolidation has been requested, and I very much like the idea, I'll go ahead and

unvote
vote: OGB

In other news, HowardRoark and Korts are probably the same faction.

+Sera,Howard,Korts

Hmmm, I actually don't like my vote now.

Given the high modularity (holy hell, that's a word?) of the game, I'm going to attribute Mufasa's role as a credit to TDC's innovation as a mod.

I'm normally pretty cut-and-dry on my LAL policy, but I'm thinking it's pretty obvious Mufasa is town. To those of you who have said this before, sorry good buddies, I'm a few pages behind on the times.

I agree with Korts that Mufasa is helpful to the town alive rather than dead, but I'm not so keen on pushing votes on charter or ekiM, who I think are just headstrong town at the moment.

Looking back at some of the wagon patterns on Mufasa, I'm returning to my Seraphim vote.

unvote

vote: Seraphim

+Sera, -Charter

I've chronicled the 'wagon on Mufasa since his claim:

charter, Seraphim, iamausername, Korts

(Korts unvotes)

charter, Seraphim, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck

(Seraphim unvotes)

charter, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck, skitzer

(iamausername unvotes)

(Mixologist unvotes)

charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGoofball, X, ThAdmiral, inHimshallibe

(inHimshallibe unvotes)

And the count now stands:

charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGoofball, X, ThAdmiral

More of a future reference, really, but I can do a small bit of analysis:

charter seems convicted, and Starbuck seems negligent.

Not among any of this is Axelrod, and duly noted.

+Charter

Bad play comes from scum too.

Yeah, but it doesn't equal scum play, as skitzer was so very much implying. Given my previous thoughts on the Mufasa matter, I thought it was inherently clear that I was making the point of "bad town play." I also think you've got a bit of tunnelvision involving Mufasa, which may be cluttering your views on other players.

His skitzer vote is very weak.

I don't think anything regarding Seraphim is going to move on this Day, and I don't like the OGB wagon - blown way out of proportion, in my opinion.

+charter,sera

He never mentioned Tajo, X, Spyrex, or Mixologist (Lowell). He also never mentioned his known partner, ThAd, except very briefly in the wagon analysis.

My conclusions from this: the four above could be non-interactive partners. Sera doesn't look Italian from this. I'm a bit conflicted on what it means for charter.

Pages 1-3

The oh-so-important random phase is "interrupted" by ogb claiming he is an alt. For some reason this makes him obvscum according to seraphim and rofl and others. I tend to disagree.

At worst he is being slightly unhelpful. Whoever said he is trying to distract the town from scum hunting is ridiculous as its rather easy to attempt a guess at who he's and alt of/ignore him altogether

and

hunt scum at the same time. Anyone who can't do a simple multitasking assignment like this should probably quit the game mafia for good.

Page 4

Mufasa claims joat really early. Why? Charter and seraphim then vote for mufasa. Even more why?

Mufasa seems inexperienced.

Seraphim says something about the "tone" in which mufasa claimed which is just a very poor and completely subjective way to keep his vote on someone who may very well be a town power role.

However...iamusername points out a very interesting fact that players aren't given their role names. While this is true I don't think it's impossible that a person could have surmised their role from their abilities (I know I can), however it does seem slightly unlikely that an inexperienced player would know about a jack of all trades. It could be a scum claim but it would be a risky one.

caboose defends mufasa. noted.

it seems mufasa is not inexperienced but is a bit daft. he also is trying to tell the doc what to do. hmm.

will continue later.

+Sera,Caboose

page 6

mufasa's past is revealed. apparently he is a bit of a menace.

Spyrex votes ogb for fairly shady reasons.

starbuck brings up the "ogb is distracting" point again, which, as I said, is ridiculous.

ekim actually has some good points to say about the ogb situation. Here they are:

re: OGB. People typically use alt accounts because they want to be able to escape their meta and have an anonymous game where the usual perceptions of them don't apply. Using an alt so you can say "Hai guys, guess who I am??" is sheer wankery and actually fairly pitiful. That said, if OGB can pull his finger out and play in an acceptably pro-town manner, that's fine. If it he continues to play as if he's joined the game just to screw about then he can go hang, whoever he is. Can't allow scum to hide behind the "LOL IM A VI!!!" façade.

he also brings up a telling point against mufasa in that he doesn't have a vig, which could be used to test the role. Mufasa is seeming more dumb and scummy by the second.

rofl says mufasa must be town because he is inexperienced and stupid. While I sort of agree with this I also think that by the same token an inexperienced and stupid mafiate could also behave this way. Rofl also brings up the fact that the role jack of all trades is on the first page as evidence that mufasa is most likely telling the truth, but I would say it is slightly convenient/coincidental that he has one of the roles that has been displayed on the first page...without the ability that could prove it.

darkdude comes out of nowhere are says ogb and mufasa are town. No reasons given.

ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb...

I was beginning to like him

Page 7

Saying stuff like:

we need to get back to lynching ogb.

^^^ lynch this guy now

Like there's some kind of open and shut case out there is not helpful

This is so true. The annoying thing is this sort of stuff is in so many games these days. It is not in persuasive in the slightest so I don't see the point of doing it anyway.

Rofl says:

ok, seraphim is plunging down the town charts and heading very quickly towards scum territory.

which is a close relative to the examples that axelrod was talking about before.

Essentially some reasoning would be nice.

Skitzer makes some interesting (read: scummy) posts in which he only looks at one side of the mufasa issue, states that we will have to lynch him eventually, and perhaps subtly implies he knows he is town in 173, although I am willing to let that one off with just odd wording.

In any case Skitzer has gone up in my scum rankings.

more later...

+SpyreX

Page 8

Axelrod makes more good points against mufasa. At this point I am fairly certain mufasa is lying.

Caboose continues to defend mufasa. If mufasa comes up scum caboose has to be next. I normally don't like chain lynching but this one seems like a gimme.

Howard Roark votes korts "for his contrived case against seraphim". Another example of a completely subjective reason to vote someone, furthermore a reason I don't agree with at all. He doesn't use any points to back it up either.

Darkdude continues to be unhelpful.

Spyrex makes a few bold claims about people, some I agree with some I don't. Have seen him play like this before as town and have been getting town vibes off him in general.

Page 9

claiming out of the clear blue sky on day one before a serious wagon has even really taken off on anyone is undeniably stupid, and will bring the house down on your head.

This is true, but why does stupid = town? If Mufasa got a scum role, would it suddenly boost his IQ by a few orders of magnitude?

i mean, really, did anyone look at the EXAMPLE PMS provided with the ruleset? the name "jack-of-all-trades" is right there guys.

Yes, I noticed. I assume that's where Mufasa got it from when he decided to fake claim.

These are two zingers that summarize my stance on a few things in an overall very good post by iamausername.

+ town points to iamausername.

mufasa claims he did it all for reactions.

++Caboose, +Howard, -Korts,

How pro-town do you feel that OGB is now that you've read the whole thread?

This is a bit of a loaded question. I think it is fairly obvious that ogb has not been pro-town, however I don't think he's necessarily been anymore anti-town than, say, a lurker.

Basically I think there was an overreaction initially to his first couple of posts, although I do admit that his continued unhelpfullness does not make him look good.

Whoever said he is trying to distract the town from scum hunting is ridiculous as its rather easy to attempt a guess at who he's and alt of/ignore him altogether and hunt scum at the same time.

I said this. I don't think it's ridiculous at all when all OGB is interested in doing is getting people to guess who he is. Playing guess the alt detracts from scumhunting, and I'd much rather quash OGB's mess before someone takes his bait.

You aren't the only one who has said it, so don't think I am trying to focus on you. But since you responded:

1. that's not "all ogb is intested in". Let's put it in to a bit of perspective: he asked a question that admittedly wasn't all that relevant to the game, but did so in the

random voting phase

, a period of the game that is debatable in regards to how helpful it is in determining scum from town.

2. how does it detract from scum hunting when you easily still scum hunt and just ignore his question?

3. furthermore who are these other people that you are trying to protect from "taking his bait". Do you think anyone in this game actually has taken his bait and has been so caught up in guessing who he is that they have been

completely unable

to scum hunt and therefore have put the town in a far worse position? Has anything even slightly resembling this happened?

(also is anyone else slightly amused by these people going on and on about ogb, saying we shouldn't get distracted by ogb, without irony?)

Mufasa claims joat really early. Why? Charter and seraphim then vote for mufasa. Even more why?

Because he claimed for no reason on page three. Since then, he's changed his claim to make it utterly useless for town two times. He's a distraction and detriment to the town and is either scum or a townie helping scum out. Either way, I want him dead, and the sooner the better.

True, especially the last bit.

But at the time his nefarious past and unhelpful nature hadn't been brought to light and it was quite reasonable to suspect he may actually be a pro town power role.

For example, if someone claimed doc early day 1 for no apparent reason, and isn't counterclaimed, should that person then be wagoned?

as I said before I think mufasa is lying and calls for him to be vigged are a bit silly given that we don't know whether there is a vig or not and furthermore he may very well be scum.

vote: mufasa

+charter

---Responses from page 10---

OK. I think active lurking is probably worse than lurking though, especially when done after being specifically called out for not contributing.

Fair enough. Just for the record what is your definition of active lurking as there are a few different interpretations.

He is still yet to show interest in scumhunting.

There are others though. Darkdude comes to mind.

It's a bit hard to say what would've happened in the counter-factual where his question wasn't immediately called out by several people as being a distraction and not worth addressing. Posts 32, 33, 34, 36, 39, 43, 169, 171 were discussing who OGB is. I think if unchallenged it could've been worse.

At it's worst I still don't think it would have given us all that much less information than a normal random voting phase. In fact since it ended the random voting phase I think this was very good for the town as actual scum hunting was able to begin very early. This was not, of course, his intention though, so he shouldn't be given credit for it, but if we are talking about simply actions and consequences you can't really say his action was anti-town.

I don't think he's a particularly informative lynch today, because he's such an easy target. There's a reasonable chance there's a vig in a game this size. What's the problem with him being vigged if he is scum?

No problem with him being vigged, but I would be happy to lynch him and I don't feel as strongly about anyone else.

1- Ok then, you tell me what else he is interested in except for voting anyone he can to try and relieve pressure off himself, because I sure as hell don't see anything besides trying to distract the town in his posts.

You admit it yourself that he is interestesd in other things. Like shamelessly jumping on bandwagons.

2- I know I can do both. I know there are many players who can do both. I know there are also many players who cannot do both and will get caught up in trivial things like that.

name one.

3- I do not believe this has happened to an unacceptable extent. I believe that the swift wagon on OGB shunned anyone who may have wanted to play guess the alt from doing so.

Fair enough. So since his actions were only theoretically distracting to people you are only theoretically suspicous of him?

For example, if someone claimed doc early day 1 for no apparent reason, and isn't counterclaimed, should that person then be wagoned?

Absolutely. Not all games have a doc. I'd probably want to lynch this person.

Agree to disagree.

Actually doc is a bad example as claiming makes that role useless. How about cop?

+charter

whats the difference between ogb and mufasa?

I think one is lurking a bit and said something that lead to some overreactions, and another one is almost certainly lying about something.

Starbuck - dont like this guy. Agreeing with rolf, charter and mike about ogb. Then, he has a weird stance regarding Mufasa. First he is quikcly to put Mufasa in the town territory. Too much for my taste.

Onto Mufasa, I don't understand why someone would claim on Day 1. It just makes no sense.

It just made him a Mafia target.

But then, he votes for him when the pressure starts to increase.

I am also in agreement on Mufasa. Something just doesn't seem right.

Vote: Mufasa

Good pick up there. It seems she's hinting at the fact that she knows mufasa is town in that first post.

in fact

unvote

,

vote: starbuck

I didn't see a point to Mufasa's claim unless he was trying to set up the town for the mafia, which is why I voted for him and why my vote has stayed on him.

Can you elaborate on "trying to set up the town for the mafia"?

I was actually thinking that scum would try to disguise their NK as a vigging. Wouldn't this point mufasa more towards town?

mafia generally do not pretend to be vigs as they are always eventually caught out by nk discrepancies ("why is there constantly only one night kill?") and also would then have to pretty much follow the town.

Slight -Tajo.

He never mentioned: Mixologist (Lowell). He also never mentioned his known partner, inHim.

Conclusions I draw from this: Again, could be maintaining non-interaction with Mix. Not looking for an Italian among SpyreX, Caboose, Seraphim or Charter right now. Might be wrong, but at the most basic reading of the above, that's what I get from it.

The only time Mixologist mentioned either of these players was to say "Waiting on darkdude/tubby/alvinz/ThAdmiral to start playing." I think that this mutual three-way non-interactivity could easily be scum going for one of the most obvious ways of avoiding linkage on Day 1. Mixologist --- possible greasy Italian.

After Day 1 Mixologist disappeared. Seems he was V/LA for some of that disappearance, however I did see him posting elsewhere after that but never here. Hum.

Let's look at his replacement then, Lowell:

He hasn't really said a lot since he came in. Several times he's said "I'll post more soon". His big vote analysis post looks like a whole lot of not very much. Spends plenty of time telling us what he thinks of already flipped players. Says he thinks DD is town but would vote him anyway?? His contributions today have been severely lacking. Votes X based on """I'm not thrilled with X's 665 yesterday or 673 today. They seem to "OMG please don't help scum OMG" for my liking.""" Which is... uh... opaque. Then he said he liked one of Howard's posts. And that's it.

So, his predecessor had no interactions with either flipped Italian, then vanished (and I recall some posting elsewhere when he was supposed to be back). Now he's really not done anything that makes me think "pro-town". Especially off was saying he thinks DD is town but still supporting the lynch. Trying to have it both ways?

I may go back and look at each living player's mentions of the Italians on D1, when I have time later, and see if that turns up anything interesting. For now however, I think that this is a good lynch.

[ekiM]

n alvinz' final outbreak post, he claims that there are at least 3 scum on his wagon; superimposing the dead players' list on the alvinz-voters' list, that leaves 3 out of 4. Even considering that there can't be 3 more Russian scum I doubt alvinz was completely bluffing; in addition I doubt that at that point (cop guilty on alvinz) Russians would have tried anything else but fervent bussing; therefore the assumption is that if there are any Russians left, which I suspect to be true, they're likely among the four living alvinz-voters. One of them is SpyreX.

If there is no reason for a Russian or an Italian to act in any way other than a townie would with regard to Alvinz, then you can't conclude anything alignment from the actions w.r.t Alvinz then.

I think, based on balance alone, an Italian is more likely. Based on the interactions we've seen though, a Russian is just as probable.

Odd thing to say. There is

certainly

another Italian. And it's

possible

all Russians are dead. Right?

Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

I don't get it.

Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.

Or this.

@ALL: I am away for a week starting Tuesday. No access whatsoever.

[Seraphim]

Hey.

My inactivity has been mostly due to my new computer...for some reason, though it has internet, I cannot log onto Mafiascum from it. I can view the site but it will not keep me logged on. Expect a reread/analysis/etc later when I get this fixed.

[HowardRoark]

EBWOP (741) . . .
IS: "No further mention of iAmusername."
SHOULD BE: "No further mention of inHimishallbe."

---

Let's look at the OozingGolfBall lynch . . .

[mrow]Post[col]Voter[col]Previous Votee[col]New Votee[col]OGB Count 19[col]charter[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]1 21[col]Korts[col] - [col]OGB[col]2 23[col]

roflcopter

[col]HowardRoark[col]OGB[col]3 24[col]X[col] - [col]OGB[col]4 25[col]Seraphim[col]X[col]OGB[col]5 49[col]Korts[col]OGB[col]Seraphim[col]4 77[col]charter[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]3 78[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]2 128[col]SpyreX[col] - [col]OGB[col]3 133[col]ekiM[col]HowardRoark[col]OGB[col]4 213[col]Mixologist[col]

Mufassa

[col]OGB[col]5 225[col]

{I} inHimshallibe

[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]6 231[col]X[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]5 232[col]

{R} alvinz95

[col]

skitzer

[col]OGB[col]6 246[col]

{I} inHimshallibe

[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]5 282[col]

{R} iamusername

[col]

skitzer

[col]OGB[col]6 315[col]

tubby216

[col] - [col]OGB[col]7 323[col]charter[col]

Mufassa

[col]OGB[col]8 324[col]

Starbuck

[col] - [col]OGB[col]9 331[col]Korts[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]10 335[col]

Axelrod

[col] - [col]OGB[col]11 340[col]

Mufassa

[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]12Observations:
* roflcopter was the first one who stayed on the wagon
* SpyreX and ekiM are the next two
* Mixologist is the next
* with alvinz95 close behind {Russian}
* iamusername is the next {Russian}
* then the last six, four of whom are town

* Korts and charter were on early and off near tipping point and back on after tipping point; always near each other
* inHimshallibe, charter, and Korts were all after Seraphim and Mufassa
* X and Seraphim went to Mufassa, then ended the day on inHimshallibe

* The two known Russians didn't bus until the tipping point.
* The only known Italian here was on and off at the tipping point
* ThAdmiral stayed clear of the wagon

[Lowell]

@howard- What conclusion am I supposed to draw from this?