Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[SpyreX]

And I answered right above?

[X]

Damn, I need to read the game closer. Anyway, I figured you had more to say.

[SpyreX]

I wish I did. IAUN flipping scum and an invest on HR coming up innocent really have messed up my reads.

[Korts]

I apologize, I haven't gotten any SpyreX/iamausername analysis done today.

@X: about the strawman, fair enough. I can accept that explanation.

Why the fuck are we voting Caboose? He is the last peson I'm going to be voting for a while.

QFT. As for why he isn't dead yet, tajo, that's a pretty stupid question. Tubby was protecting him up until now. Any intention to lynch Caboose right now, especially the way you're trying to twist things in 689, is likely scum doing some damage control before it's too late.

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

He wasn't really that obvious--I've seen people with the same amount of conviction and nothing at all to back it up plenty of times.

Also, you explain the lack of an Italian doctor on their GF by saying that Caboose would've been a Russian target, even though he only claimed cop Day 2, and there were far more pro-town players than him around. What would've made him a prime Russian target after Day 1?

There's more that bothers me with that post, but I can't put my finger on it.

If Caboose still isn't dead tomorrow, I'm willing to consider his lynch, considering that there is no protective masonship and no protective JOAT anymore.

Currently I want to lynch one of tajo/SpyreX.

[populartajo]

QFT. As for why he isn't dead yet, tajo, that's a pretty stupid question. Tubby was protecting him up until now. Any intention to lynch Caboose right now, especially the way you're trying to twist things in 689, is likely scum doing some damage control before it's too late.

Im not twisting anything. I see some things that fit and share.

Bleh, totally forgot about tubby claiming bodyguard protecting Caboose. Its likely he protected him last night also.

But still, and lets be clear, you think Caboose is prob town/neutral/prob scum?

He wasn't really that obvious--I've seen people with the same amount of conviction and nothing at all to back it up plenty of times.

Ive seen that too but its not a commom behavior. Really if you read Caboose and what he breadcrumbed is pretty obvious. What would you do, Korts, if you were a town cop with a guilty result on someone day 1?

Also, you explain the lack of an Italian doctor on their GF by saying that Caboose would've been a Russian target, even though he only claimed cop Day 2, and there were far more pro-town players than him around. What would've made him a prime Russian target after Day 1?

Well, if I were nonalvinz Russian and I see Caboose heavily pushing for the lynch of my scum partner the first thing that would come to my mind is that the guy obviously has a guilty result on me.
Im pretty sure that if Caboose is an Italian, this is also the first thing that inhim and admiral thought.

Finally, what do you think of massclaim?

[Caboose]

QFT. As for why he isn't dead yet, tajo, that's a pretty stupid question. Tubby was protecting him up until now. Any intention to lynch Caboose right now, especially the way you're trying to twist things in 689, is likely scum doing some damage control before it's too late.

This, I agree with.

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

I was trying to get more results, but I wanted to breadcrumb aggressively enough to where alvinz would get lynched if I got NKed N1.
I'm not sorry if it didn't meet your standards.

If Caboose still isn't dead tomorrow, I'm willing to consider his lynch, considering that there is no protective masonship and no protective JOAT anymore.

This, I don't agree with, and it bothers me.

Korts trying to set up a chain lynch + the fact that there was no Italian kill on night 2 (when Korts was blocked) bothers me.

[Caboose]

I see some things that fit and share.

It also fits that you're scum that's trying to a) get a mislynch and b) avoiding a cop investigation at the same time.

Tajo or Korts seem the most scummy to me.
I will vote later, when I have more time to post.

[Korts]

Caboose, I'm not setting up a chain lynch. I said I'm willing to

consider

lynching you if you're still alive tomorrow. Scum should now be able to kill you without having to worry about their kill failing--I doubt there would be three seperate protective abilities in the game.

tajo, I think Caboose is town. And I'm not sold on a massclaim yet.

[HowardRoark]

Korts was on the thread 21 minutes after it opened today asking for Caboose's result. Caboose gives his innocent result on me a few hours later. The response 12 minutes later. . .

Nothing else, then.

Did that strike anyone else as a bit worried . . . then relief?

I think it's more worthwhile to look for standalone scumtells or Italian tells at this point, because we've killed 3 Russians and only 2 Italians.

Are you advocating selective scum hunting? i.e. Italian scum only.

With every flipped scum being a power role, and the Russians already having had two 1-shot vigs flip, I'm finding it quite likely that it's two 3-man scum groups. 6 out of 23 doesn't seem out of order, and the town power roles revealed so far have not been particularly awesome. The idea of 2 more Russians is ludicrous. At the absolute most, 2 more Italians and one more Russian. Most likely in my eyes is no more Russians and one or two more Italians.

QFT

You're neglecting possibility of an SK?

If I were a SK, wouldn't an investigation of me result in a guilty result?

So I think the focus today is to find the very likely last Italian instead of a hypotehycal Russian.

See my comment on X's 679.

No one has explained to me why the nighttalk between us is indicative of him being scum

How about . . .

I'd have to say that it looks pretty bad for Seraphim: indifference when X was wary of him being mafia, role fishing, etc.

??? But, yes, I'd still like to hear from Seraphim concerning this. *hearing crickets chirping*

Caboose is a Cop, no way around it. His alignment is probably town, but we can't be certain.

Caboose, you need to scumhunt more. You've contented yourself with mostly posting investigation results and the occasional post to show your presence. Who do you think is scum?

QFT. It's most likely that tubby216 body guarded Caboose last night and took the bullet intended for him. And you let populartajo sway you into voting Caboose

that easily

???

HowardRoark has shown Russian and general scumtells. There are three Russian mafiosi dead, but none are a Godfather. Usually scumgroups include a Godfather. The Italian scumgroup included a Godfather. Caboose has given us accurate results in the past, and he announced an Innocent on HowardRoark. And as you said, TDC likes balance and making things even. If he gave a GF to one mafia group, he would likely give one to the other mafia group as well.
The problem arises when you look at alvinz95 and I Am, both Russians. alvinz95 implied in Twilight that HowardRoark was his scumbuddy. And when HowardRoark said that alvinz was pulling a gambit, I Am said that alvinz wasn't good enough to pull that gambit, thus making it look like HowardRoark was Russian. That would not be an intelligent move if I Am and HowardRoark were Russians together. I Am was Russian, therefore HowardRoark is not Russian. QED.

Let's

assume

that I am a Russian GF and TDC likes balance.

Given

Dead Italian Roles: GF, Doc.
Dead Russian Roles: 1-Shot, Multitasker, 1-Shot.

Balanced Result

Living Italian Roles: 1-Shot, Multitasker, 1-Shot.
Living Russian Roles: GF, Doc.

Problem

10 scum with extra kills in a 23 player start.
*sigh*

Getting lengthy, more to follow.

[Korts]

Did that strike anyone else as a bit worried . . . then relief?

While I appreciate someone spotting this, and I will have a good defense that Caboose can hopefully back up when the time comes, I really don't like

how

you point this out.

"Did that strike anyone else as", really? On the one hand, it's stylistically disgusting; on the other, more relevant hand, it looks like you're trying to gauge the other players' stance toward the point you are trying to make before damning it or dismissing it.

And seriously, is the 21 minutes and the 12 minutes supposed to mean anything in regards to alignment, in your humble opinion? If so, I'd like a full elaboration on that.

---------------------------------------

Those arguing that there must be a Russian GF simply because TDC "likes symmetry" or whatever your outguess-the-mod reasoning was, have you considered that one GF was a member of the Upper Roccisi Neighbourhood, and the other member was a Multitasker? How does that fit into your worldview of symmetry?

I'd like to point out that outguessing the mod is futile when the mod is competent. And the mod is competent.

---------------------------------------

I'm interested to see how quickly X will be taking his vote off Caboose.

[HowardRoark]

Sorry, that is my "How obvious is this?!?!?!?" tone. You also did it in your first post yesterday. It seems as though you are very worried about having a guilty found on you or a partner. As you know, I have been keeping my eye on you. I was doing my revised PBPA on you and you are now off of my watch list. I believe there are better places to spend my time looking.

Mixologist

Lowell is one place, but there just isn't much to work with there.

[Lowell]

I like howard's 708, particuarly his observation of korts' fascination with caboose.

[X]

Currently I want to lynch one of tajo/SpyreX.

Reasons for SpyreX?

Finally, what do you think of massclaim?

Not yet.

Tajo or Korts seem the most scummy to me.
I will vote later, when I have more time to post.

I think you owe this game a full analysis.

I think it's more worthwhile to look for standalone scumtells or Italian tells at this point, because we've killed 3 Russians and only 2 Italians.

Are you advocating selective scum hunting? i.e. Italian scum only.

In a sense. I mean, if there's a Russian out there, we want to kill them. But we definitely have an Italian left, and it's not worth spending as much effort finding a (perhaps nonexistent) Russian as Italian.

I'm interested to see how quickly X will be taking his vote off Caboose.

As soon as I see Caboose put forth a serious effort looking for scum. With multiple scumgroups, it's perfectly plausible that there is a Mafia Cop.

I'm graduating tonight, and parties and sleep will take up the weekend, so

V/LA until Monday

.

[Seraphim]

Mod: I will be V/LA until Monday

[Korts]

Reasons for SpyreX?

Read my posts please. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's Russian.

[HowardRoark]

@Lowell: Your effort to buddy with me are noted.

@Caboose: I concur with X that you owe this game a complete analysis. Since our protective JOAT and bodyguard masons are dead, you have a much reduced chance of surviving the night.

@Seraphim: Upon your return Monday, you owe us some reaction and analysis.

[ekiM]

Will not lynch Caboose today.

Only way X or Seraphim are scum is if they are two greasy Italians together. That's not impossible, I guess.

I'm finding it hard to think we have three scum left, though. We successfully lynched scum days one and two, and there have been three NKs on scum. That feels like we should be winning by a healthy margin. Assume that there are ten players left and three scum. If we mislynch today and scum don't cross kill then tomorrow there will be three scum and four town left. That's pretty much LYLO, I think. It just seems ridiculously punitive that after 2 scum lynches and 2 mislynches the town could be effectively screwed, in a game of this size. I think there might be just one scum left, an Italian.

ekiM, the thing I found odd about you was that you voted alvinz95 to L-1 in your first post of D2. You didn't want to slow down and ask anyone questions about their actions so far in D2?

I didn't actually remember how long I went without posting on D:2, but I think it was due to lack of time. I did read the whole day and post my thoughts, and I voted Alvinz because he had a claimed guilty on him. I think when someone sets up a situation like that you might as well lynch immediately and then make sense of the aftermath.

There are three Russian mafiosi dead, but none are a Godfather. Usually scumgroups include a Godfather. The Italian scumgroup included a Godfather. Caboose has given us accurate results in the past, and he announced an Innocent on HowardRoark. And as you said, TDC likes balance and making things even. If he gave a GF to one mafia group, he would likely give one to the other mafia group as well.

Erm. With the flips we've seen, it's impossible for both scum groups to be have the same set of power roles.

Anyway,

Vote: Lowell

[X]

Reasons for SpyreX?

Read my posts please. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's Russian.

I know that, I just don't see the rationale. I see two reasons that you might think that, but they're not very convincing, and I'd like to see if I missed something. So please, give me your reasons for SpyreX.

There are three Russian mafiosi dead, but none are a Godfather. Usually scumgroups include a Godfather. The Italian scumgroup included a Godfather. Caboose has given us accurate results in the past, and he announced an Innocent on HowardRoark. And as you said, TDC likes balance and making things even. If he gave a GF to one mafia group, he would likely give one to the other mafia group as well.

Erm. With the flips we've seen, it's impossible for both scum groups to be have the same set of power roles.

Good point. But it's not necessary to convince me, either. If you noticed, I gave a different rebuttal in the same post.

This game really died over the weekend.

[TDC]

I'm still without access at home, so I've asked Adel to provide vote counts for the time being (a week, in theory). If someone needs Proddage, just PM me.
I'll keep checking in once a day or so.

[populartajo]

Guys, I agree with some voices (mike and some, i guess) that its very likely that we are facing max two scum left. My spidey senses tell me that its only one last Italian.

After some thinking, I agree that the best play is to not lynch him today. After all he is 100% a cop and you know information, etc.

Mike, why the Lowell vote?

[populartajo]

him* is Caboose.

[populartajo]

Reasons for SpyreX?

Read my posts please. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's Russian.

4 Russians, Korst?
Why?

[populartajo]

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

I was trying to get more results, but I wanted to breadcrumb aggressively enough to where alvinz would get lynched if I got NKed N1.
I'm not sorry if it didn't meet your standards.

Caboose, do you usually get nked N1?

[SpyreX]

I'm not diggin' the Caboose hunt.

However I can and do follow Kort's logic behind Caboose fairly well - except for the fact its almost Shrodinger's NK: by stating it SHOULD happen, it now most likely will not.

I'll freely admit I'm still having a hard time getting back into the swing of things this game. I still have a high-level of distrust for Lowell and the real absence of anything concrete and useful.

[Korts]

X: These quotes detail my suspicion:

ISO 10

is an analysis of his wagon: says that everyone on his wagon except

roflcopter

and

SpyreX

have "either wagonned, done little, or have acted scummy": this means

HowardRoark

,

darkdude

,

Axelrod

,

Mufasa

,

tubby

,

Starbuck

and

ekiM

. Makes me think that SpyreX might well be Russian, since all his reasoning with his vote on alvinz was was "Ohh see thats a different business all together"; before that, he makes no seperate mention of alvinz, only in quotes of vote counts. He does make a reference to "alvins", though, early on:

Caboose - what the hell is your fixation with an alvins wagon?

Again, motivations for Russians to ask this are obvious.

I'm going to say there's going to be AT LEAST 3 SCUM on my wagon.

Here's the final vote count on alvinz: alvinz95 (10):

HowardRoark

,

roflcopter

,

SpyreX

,

darkdude

,

Axelrod

,

Mufasa

,

tubby216

,

Starbuck

,

ekiM

,

X

Now, consider that

none

of the dead players so far on his wagon are scum. The players whose alignment we still don't know are: HowardRoark, SpyreX, ekiM, X. I find it unlikely that a Russian wouldn't bus this wagon hard after Caboose's claim, so I have to assume that there's a grain of truth in alvinz' post; I also think, however, that his final outcry was a last ditch attempt at helping his faction, and under the guise of frustration he tried to plant some seeds of paranoia. So according to this logic, if there's Russian scum, it's most likely between Howard/SpyreX/ekiM/X.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that SpyreX pulled an early bus on OGB and tried to ignore alvinz until the investigation claim forced him to do something. It's notable also that iamausername basically ignored SpyreX, making only a single passing comment on his suspicion list, even though both were/are very active posters in the game.

I'm fairly confident in OGB being scum. Furthermore, if he is, like I think... at least one of those early votes is scum.

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter,

SpyreX

, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

If I were scum this is what I'd do: lampshade my actions to make them seem genuine and pre-empt accusations.

---

Reasons for SpyreX?

Read my posts please. I've made it pretty clear that I think he's Russian.

4 Russians, Korst?
Why?

Why assume that there can only be three? I see a connection between SpyreX and the Russians; 4:4:15 is not really unbalanced, considering there's a lot of room for individual roles to even it out.