Open 143: Jungle Republic (Game Over!) before 787

[dejkha]

Can't we all just agree with the fact that AA has done more lying, misrepresenting and word twisting than anyone else here? I'd say all that constitutes a lynch.

Vote Count

AA23 2 - dejkha, Empking
Sotty7 2 - AA23, Thesp
Percy 1 - Sotty7
dejkha 1 - Hewitt
Empking 1 - Percy

[AA23]

Percy, Thesp, Khamisa, Emp, Hewitt.

Please get back to my post when you get a chance

[Percy]

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

For the record, I'm not scum. The theory that puts me on the scumteam with Thesp is tenuous and holds no water. It relies on AA's convoluted doublethink where he says dejkha and Empking are the wolfteam, ganging up on him, whilst Sotty is town and the scumteam (Thesp and I) were trying to get a lynch on her happening. But of course, he then turns around and says that he thinks Sotty is a wolf partner with dej. He firstly says he's willing to re-evaluate things if dej flips town (implying that he thinks dej is scum, and asking for Sotty to prove her towniness by voting for dej), and now is advocating a Sotty lynch. It's all a bamboozling runaround, full of hot air, signifying nothing.

But for the 'wolves are ganging up on me to get a mislynch', I honestly think that AA is just retarded here. For him, his death is a 'mislynch', because as far as the wolves are concerned, when anyone who is not a werewolf gets lynched today, it's good for them, therefore bad for the town. Replace 'mislynch' with 'lynch that helps the wolves', and his argument becomes readable, at least. However, if Sotty and dej are the wolfteam, then there was no ganging up, so all I have to say is

YOU ARE INSANE WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU

*BASHES HEAD AGAINST KEYBOARD*

Don't you dare play the "stop being mean to me" card any more, either. When you flat-out

refuse

to think your arguments through, when you continue to make this game

more

confusing with

every

post, you will make me feel this way, and I will

not

bottle it up and ignore it.

I still have my town read of Sotty, so no, I will not lynch her. Your post is a lot of garbage, really. If neither of Sotty or dej are wolves, you just cost us the game, buddy: *thumbs up*

You also assume that your read of the scum is right, which it's not. Your line about 'eliminates who the villains can hide behind' essentially means that the chances of lynching scum will be greater tomorrow if townies die - this is, of course, tautological nonsense. Whilst the mafia would love this plan if they knew dej and Sotty were the wolves, they don't, so they won't support it.

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

I'd also be happy with an AA lynch, because he's shopping around for lynches like nobody's business, and has no clear line of argument or consistent position.

HoS: AA23

[AA23]

I'm shopping around more than Dej telling people "puh-puh-pweese can we just lynch AA?"

***I have mentally handicapped people in my immediate family. For the last time - cut the use of the word out***

I have to stop asking people to be nice because you feel I make cases that suck and don't give in to others?

I would understand if you told me I was being as VISCIOUS in return to the people insulting the lifestyle of my family members I love, or the name calling.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have maintained that my engame pairing is a HYPOTHESIS.

Next time, just say you disagree and keep your ridiculous rants and pictures to yourself! Act like an adult for crying out loud.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

You've also completely misrepresented my case. Re-read.

I feel that

Dej is wolf.

I suspected his partner of being Emp, but since

you

pointed out that he indeed has made mention and interaction with Emp, I regarded that as less noteworthy as the way Dej is so against a Mix(Sotty) lynch - - I regard their interactions and relationship, and behavior as buddies.

Everything is just an OPINION - - and why WOULD you agree with me? It would make you scum.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've presented my thoughts, hypothesis, feelings, and my reasons.

My vote is down, and I've requested people please regard my earlier post laying out my line of thought as well as the posts throughout the recent activity.

If someone has a

difference of opinion

I'd appreciate you acting like an adult and not harrassing me - - keep it to yourself unless you would like to offer the TOWN, as in EVERYONE evidence to support YOUR OWN theories.

no more political incorrectness please - It's rude and I've repeatedly asked.

[Percy]

I'm sorry if you object to my use of the word 'retarded', AA, but it should be pretty obvious what I mean by it. To say that I'm insulting the

lifestyle

of your

family

is just too rich.

However, I won't use that particular word again. I stand by everything else I said, tone and picture and all, however.

You have a theory, based on a hypothesis. It's a stupid theory, and unwarranted, stupid hypothesis. You spend more time in each post defending these ever-shifting theories in the face of obvious, rather than trying to look at the game outside of your tunnelled views. Every time you change your theory, you

demand

to be taken seriously, when you haven't shown a clear line of thought between your positions. It's like you sit at your keyboard and tap whatever floats through your brain, heedless of anything that's gone on in the game unless it confirms with whatever theory you most recently remember. You misrepresent, twist and lie your way into whatever sounds like the most convenient explanation. You are also incredibly defensive.

Yet you try to paint yourself as the best, most pro-town, logic-lovin' poster there is. And you really believe that it's true.

It makes me want to

cry

.

I'm shopping around more than Dej telling people "puh-puh-pweese can we just lynch AA?"

What he is doing is not shopping around.
You change your mind on who the scumteam is and who we should lynch all the time. At least dej is consistent. That's exactly what I'm pointing out - you are completely inconsistent, all the time, changing targets, all the time. How can you not see this. How. How. HOW.

You just want to turn whatever I said into an attack on dej. Do whatever you can to get dej lynched. If someone doesn't like someone, make it mean they should like dej even less. Turn an attack on you into an accusation of defending dej. Whatever it takes. Am I right?

Everything is just an OPINION - - and why WOULD you agree with me? It would make you scum.

What?

Agreeing with you is a scumtell now?

[AA23]

**What you

mean

by using that word, the connotation - - it is the very reason I don't want you to USE that word - - in using THAT WORD to call me and tell me every mean thing you think about me, you consequently call the people who are ill those things**

And to your previous post.

Not at all.

I don't change my mind willy nilly, I explain everything I do - - you however,

disagree

. I understand that, but don't make it grounds to call me WRONG.

Defensive? Every time I make a final statement and sit back to wait for the rest of the town to read, I'm ATTACKED.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I maintained I felt Mix was a villain and that I was suspicious of Ace.

That NEVER changed - my voting, my questioning, my theories,

always

applied to

thinking Mix was a villain, and being suspicious about Ace

.

The next day swings around, and I state that I believe:

Thesp and Percy are scum and Ash was their third partner.

I stated this because both of you were more confident in the Mix case a day later. Thesp was confident in it with no new information or evidence and admits that nothing Sotty said would have stopped his vote. You were more confident about it in a more vocal way that would have been useful the PREVIOUS DAY when I needed votes on that wagon - - - oh and lets not forget that your confidence in that case was only as strong as any suspicion on you - - you were quick to get right off of it and cover your ass (as Sotty pointed out)

So YEAH - I have reasons based on you actions, behavior, and the relationships I note as to WHY I think you are scum with Thesp.

That aided my theory. All scum sorted out in that hypothesis (Thesp, Ash, Percy) - - which meant that the only variables left were Werewolves. A duo.

Then came the noted issue of Dej and Emp having a suspicious behavior. Two werewolves left - and two uncharacteristic people - my eye went toward them.

I grew to regard Dej as certain werewolf in my opinion. I just wondered if he was allied to Emp.

Then I heavily considered my feelings to Mix, and my feelings to Emp.

Dej/Emp - - that was a variable and opinionated. Dej/Mix(sotty) That was pages and pages of Dej being suspiciously aggressive about a case on Mix. I mean it's one thing to have a difference of opinions and not be on it - but to flat out be the smear campaign manager of it?

So I told myself to stick to my guns.

I had my hypothesis complete.

Thesp, Pecy, Ash - mafia

Dej, Mix(Sotty) - werewolves.

All based on the forementioned actions, behaviors, suspicions, and gameplay.

I have not been flip flopping wild as you seem to be trying to illustrate for the townies to read.

These are my thoughts and feelings. They have warrant and I stand by them.

So for the last time:

Given my endgame pairing, I am voting Mix(Sotty) and am hoping to eliminate Dej as well - - that way there are no more NK's.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

if anyone DISAGREES with me, I will make obvious note of it when I see you post your own case, and thoughts. I don't need anyone attacking me over this

[AA23]

And no Percy, agreeing with me is not a scumtell.

I'm saying that if you agreed with me, it would make you scum (because I believe you are scum. Check my endgame pairing. If you agree with me, you are agreeing with me that you are scum)

Hence I'm not surprised you're guns blazin' toward me

[dejkha]

You have a theory, based on a hypothesis. It's a stupid theory, and unwarranted, stupid hypothesis. You spend more time in each post defending these ever-shifting theories in the face of obvious, rather than trying to look at the game outside of your tunnelled views. Every time you change your theory, you

demand

to be taken seriously, when you haven't shown a clear line of thought between your positions. It's like you sit at your keyboard and tap whatever floats through your brain, heedless of anything that's gone on in the game unless it confirms with whatever theory you most recently remember. You misrepresent, twist and lie your way into whatever sounds like the most convenient explanation. You are also incredibly defensive.

Yet you try to paint yourself as the best, most pro-town, logic-lovin' poster there is. And you really believe that it's true.

It makes me want to

cry

.

I'm shopping around more than Dej telling people "puh-puh-pweese can we just lynch AA?"

What he is doing is not shopping around.
You change your mind on who the scumteam is and who we should lynch all the time. At least dej is consistent. That's exactly what I'm pointing out - you are completely inconsistent, all the time, changing targets, all the time. How can you not see this. How. How. HOW.

You just want to turn whatever I said into an attack on dej. Do whatever you can to get dej lynched. If someone doesn't like someone, make it mean they should like dej even less. Turn an attack on you into an accusation of defending dej. Whatever it takes. Am I right?

I love you.

[dejkha]

I knew I forgot something.

You

invite

me

?!

I am voting Empking. You are not. Why aren't you?

We don't need a werewolf lynch today, though it is preferable to relying on one tomorrow. If you want Empking out of the endgame, you need to lynch him today.

FoS: dejkha

Well, I remember you voting Mix/Sotty but don't remember you unvoting

So what the hell

Unvote Vote: Empking

It would be a lot better if others join in though. Hewitt perhaps, since I recall him saying he wouldn't mind an Emp lynch.

[Percy]

Defensive? Every time I make a final statement and sit back to wait for the rest of the town to read, I'm ATTACKED.

No, your arguments are attacked, yet you act like anyone who doesn't agree with you straight off the bat is a moron. Eventually, when you refuse to see reason, frustrated townies will lash out at your defensiveness. There's a big difference.

Your comments on Thesp's vote on Sotty are somewhat sound - his case needs more fleshing out, and I've already asked a question aimed at getting him to do just that. But your comments on mine are not. I've already explained why I came around to your case, and why I left it.

But at the very least, you can at best conclude that we're both non-town. How you conclude that we're both on the same faction, and more than that, that we're both

mafia

, is absurd. My "connection" with Ash is just not there. Thesp's connection with Ash is non-existent.

You say you 'grew to regard dej as werewolf', but you haven't stated why. As far as I can tell, you think he's a werewolf because he doesn't like you, and you think he's paired with Sotty because he never liked your case against Mix. It's all centred on you and your own skewed vision of this game, not on any objective perspective.

Your hypothesis may sound convenient, but it's wrong. Note that the most active posters are all scum, and the three lurkers are town. How could this be? Perhaps it's because people's vocal dislike of you is directly proportional to their posting - the more they post, the more they say your cases are crap. The more that people say your cases are crap, the more likely you are to think they're scum.

You're happy to ignore all the lurkers and call this game already, and that is

so

short sighted and anti-town.

[AA23]

Defensive? Every time I make a final statement and sit back to wait for the rest of the town to read, I'm ATTACKED.

No, your arguments are attacked, yet you act like anyone who doesn't agree with you straight off the bat is a moron.

In addition to being attacked, I'm the one that's being called the moron, stupid, and other names.

I regard people as ignorant and narrow minded when they constantly attck an opinion - - its useless, nobody truly KNOWS anything.

[hewitt]

@ Hewitt -

I just finished asking Sotty to respond to the above as well, and in light of you noticing the odd choice Dej made for you over Emp, I thought you might have an opinion on it as well.

It's something I didn't even want to bother bringing up because of the ridiculous headache it would be to follow through on. I mean, I don't like starting wagons on gut feelings - it's not fair to any player (scum or town)

But it could make sense.

When I made this alt account, I was interested in experimenting different gameplay than my normal routines. This is the first AA23 game I've had, and I went into it thinking I'd play that slayer's gambit I always suspected Ace/Zwet of doing
(For those who don't know what that is, it's when you bait yourself as an easy lynch and watch for which scum run for you/uses you - likely kills you but ultimately helps the town)
I didn't have the stomache or patience for it, so I brought up the Dust case. It was

valid

but

weak

(a perfect platform for villains). Nothing ultimately came of it, and I couldn't figure one way or the other who was who, so it was useless to me.

Then the Mix debacle. I abandoned my initial gameplay to persue what I felt was a scum attached to hypocrisy, and variables - - if you're gonna hammer, especially if you only LIKE to hammer - - you damn well better know how to defend it because nobody in Mafiascum believes in a perfectly clean hammer (people ALWAYS turn on the hammer of a mislynch, if even for two posts - but 9/10 the towny can defend why they did it, or at least built up to it by following the wagon - - Mix was out of the blue)

So we have that. You know why I did what I did with Dust, you know I was opposed to the Zwet wagon, you know why I suspected Mix and abandoned trying to lure villains out - - at this time, if Mix(Sotty) is indeed town and my

valid

points are unfortunate variables - - then I do indeed wonder about the scenario in my opening quote to this post.

It's not so crazy - - That Percy and Thesp are mafiascum, and when Ash went down, they figured a quicklynch today would eliminate a towny/enemy to even the score/move closer to a win.

And it would also make sense out of why Dej in uncharacteristic to Emp. Perhaps they are werewolves together.

The numbers make sense, the relationships make sense. It could indeed work.

However - - it's like pressing a drill to your temple and piercing right through to try and prove it. I don't know if I have the energy, but if there are any takers on that scenario,

Khamisa, Hewitt, and Sotty, what do you think?

If our votes went toward that theory and we are indeed the townies left over - - it would require other villains hopping on the wagon and risking their own exposure in an attempt to eliminate the opposition (wolf/mafia).

Thoughts?

I would not be surprised in the slightest if that were the case. Especially the part about Empking and dejkha being werewolves together. The Mafia I think are a little more interchangeable as to who I think are the most likely scumteam (as in I'm not quite sure at all). So I think I'm going to stick with my vote.

RESPONDING TO YOUR THING-
I'm sticking with my vote on dejkha, I'm not switching it.

I think Percy is likely to be Ash's partner yes.

Hm sooooo then you're voting for him right? Cause you sound pretty sure of that.

hewitt

- Bizarre abandoning of Mixologist wagon today after refusing to discuss him further yesterday. I don't think he's trying to scumhunt.

How was it bizarre abandonment?

hewitt

is trying to scumhunt? I'm having a very hard time following you there.

Haha okay I'm actually going to have to agree with you here and not Empking. I think I'm sucking in this game so I'm surprised that he's all the sudden defending me. It's weird.

Yes, I noticed you were less active than I've known you to be after you pointed it out.

Well I did just kind of break that because I didn't post in this game in a really long time yet I've been quite active in another game.

So what the hell

Unvote Vote: Empking

It would be a lot better if others join in though. Hewitt perhaps, since I recall him saying he wouldn't mind an Emp lynch.

Ugh, NOW you decide to vote Empking?

[Khamisa]

Why am I suddenly a better a lynch?

Both you and AA23 are scummy. However, if we lynch AA23, we get very little in the realm of relationships because he's made everyone mad, while you have some very perceptible relationships.

AA23: I'm not against your "motion to lynch Sotty", but this extensive planning is in your favor. Many of us still think you are scum.

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

[AA23]

You're entitled to you opinion - - I'm just chilling until everything plays out at this point - we'll know more in time.

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

Scum can talk at any time Khamisa*

[Thesp]

Oh my goodness, I post less than two days ago, and I'm already two pages buried.

dejkha, why do you think we should lynch people? (I'm going somewhere with this - I think the meta-theory on this is important.)

Percy, I haven't gone through the calcs and percentages myself, but I think there's something else that might aid our position. Are you accounting for potential crosskills? (On the whole of things, though, this isn't terribly important yet, so if it's a drain on your time, don't worry about it.)

---

Do you think we should lynch the player most likely to be scum, or the person who plays the worst?

I think the player more likely to be scum. I'm not sure how that relates to the replacements though. In my opinion, we should have allowed time for both to be replaced.

Tactically, I agree with you. Practically, it's more difficult to gauge. I would have really liked to have seen a replacement for AceMarksman come in, give us their thoughts, then lynch them, but it seemed a little unfair to the potential replacement and to the mod. Of course, it would have been even more ideal if AceMarksman did it himself, but there's no accounting for people.

With tomorrow's lynch being so crucial, and your stated dread of having Empking around for the endgame, I invite you now to place your vote on Empking, or tell me why I should believe there's a better-than-average chance Empking is Town.

Then I invite you to join me on the Empking wagon, otherwise I'll have to decline your invitation. And I never (ever) said there was a better-than-average chance of Emp being scum or town, I said everything he does is null.

I don't think everything he does is "null", even if he is more difficult to read. I have noticed that he responds to almost all questions levied against him (I don't recall him missing one of mine), yet you seem content to lob meta-hate at him rather than inquire towards him so as to determine his alignment. That's disturbing.

Percy, in the event that we must get a WW kill, we'll need any remaining mafia members to claim otherwise we both have a good chance at losing. I don't mean to say that as if you're mafia, just throwing it out there.

I agree with this 100%. If any mafiates claim, not only should we not lynch them, but it improves our odds of getting a correct werewolf lynch. This is important.

MAFIA: YOUR BEST PLAY IS TO CLAIM NOW. WE WILL NOT LYNCH YOU, IN FACT IT WOULD BE TACTICALLY UNSOUND TO LYNCH YOU. CLAIM FOR YOUR OWN SURVIVAL. OTHERWISE, IT IS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THE WOLVES WILL WIN.

I think we all need to support this.

I sure wouldn't mind lynching dejkha if we're not going to lynch Sotty7 today.

Percy, Emp, Hewitt, Khamisa, Thesp.

Sotty and Dej are getting real active over my gameplan and thoughts on the subject, I would like to hear your opinions and I motion that we eliminate Mix(Sotty) to reveal her as Wolf.

I agree with you that I think Sotty7 is most likely to be scum, though I don' follow you that Sotty7 is most likely to be one scum faction over another.

I'm happy with a lynch of Empking, and I'm finding dejkha's avoidance of the 'vote for Empking!' argument I've forwarded concerning. I'm the only one talking about Empking at the moment, now that I think about it, and that really bothers me.

I don't find Empking all that compelling.

I also don't see what the big deal is about AA23's hypotheses. I disagree with a couple of them, but I don't think it's as soul-wrenchingly incoherent as it seems to be to others.

---

I stated this because both of you were more confident in the Mix case a day later. Thesp was confident in it with no new information or evidence and admits that nothing Sotty said would have stopped his vote.

Do you think my certainty in voting Mixologist/Sotty7 was new or innovative?

---

Your comments on Thesp's vote on Sotty are somewhat sound - his case needs more fleshing out, and I've already asked a question aimed at getting him to do just that.

I seem to have overlooked this - can you repeat? Thanks!

---

hewitt

- Bizarre abandoning of Mixologist wagon today after refusing to discuss him further yesterday. I don't think he's trying to scumhunt.

How was it bizarre abandonment?

You were third on the Mixologist wagon yesterday, stuck with it when questioned about it, refused to give reasons for it when directly asked, then the next day he's not even on your top 3 list of most likely to be scum, without much mention of why, other than "I think I was probably wrong and the opposing bandwagon was right". The opposing bandwagon referred to seems to be the AceMarksman wagon, which was in fact a townie lynch. That whole bit is incredibly bizarre to me. Why the change of heart?

hewitt

is trying to scumhunt? I'm having a very hard time following you there.

Haha okay I'm actually going to have to agree with you here and not Empking. I think I'm sucking in this game so I'm surprised that he's all the sudden defending me.

Needs more Sotty7 lynch.

[Thesp]

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

Scum can talk at any time Khamisa*

Thinking about it - this makes me feel a bit better about Khamisa.

[AA23]

@ Thesp -

In ref. to what may have been a raised eyebrow about your certainty on Mix being new or innovative -

That's a null tell and unfair for me to make a concrete statement about - it would be bias and irresponsible of me seeing as the day before the lynch of Ace, you made it clear that you were content on seeing either one of them (Ace/Mix) lynched - and even had a vote on him.

[Percy]

I regard people as ignorant and narrow minded when they constantly attck an opinion - - its useless, nobody truly KNOWS anything.

There are no words, at all.




There seem to be five cases floating around with some support - Sotty7, dejkha, AA, Empking and myself.



The case against Sotty7 is based on Mixologist's Day 1 hammer. Thesp, I asked those who supported the "Sotty is scum" theory whether they have found any evidence

today

that points to her scumminess. Honestly, I don't think there is any. So is there reason to vote for her based off Mix's Day 1 play? Sure, but I was frustrated by the end of Day 1, and honestly, I was glad that Mix got it over and done with. His subsequent behaviour was more scummy, but I feel the case doesn't hold enough water at the moment.


The case against AA is primarily advanced by dejkha, but is getting support from other players as well. Personally, I can't get a straight read on him. One day, I wake up and think he's a clever, clever scum. The next day, I think he's just a deluded, blinkered townie who has no idea how to form coherent arguments out of clear evidence.


The case against dejkha is pretty murky, I must say. I don't think anyone can point to anything definitive as to why they think he's scum. I'm 100% certain that AA and dejkha are not on the same scumteam, if indeed they are both scum, but that's all I'm clear on.

He recently voted Empking, and many people thought that his attitude towards Empking pointed towards a dejkha/Empking scumteam. This perhaps goes to demonstrating how this doesn't pan out.

However, what is making me feel more uncertain about him personally is the prevailing attitude of not talking about people he thinks are scum, or really asking questions of anyone except AA. I'd like for him to be more involved in the rest of the game, really, and ask questions. He may just be a player who keeps his cards close to his chest, and this is my first game with him and I don't trust a single word out of AA's mouth so I can't judge on meta, but I really do think full disclosure time is fast approaching.


The case against Empking is as I have advanced it. He's played terribly so far, and has vanished after failing to respond adequately to questions put to him. Now, of course, I know that Empking is a terrible player, and generally reads scum no matter whether he's scum or not. I also know that disappearing just when you start to look really scummy isn't a great scumtell in this game either. However, out of all the players, I'm happiest with my vote on him, simply because he reads big scum and would be terrible to have around tomorrow.


The case against me? Well, I'll let others do the talking there, but I will answer any and all questions put to me in full to the best of my ability.


I agree that Khamisa is reading town. When she made this comment:

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

...my first thought was to explain how I always bold words within my post, to make it better reflect how I speak (and my internet-voice being close to my real-voice is oddly important to me). However, AA jumped in and told me something I frankly didn't even realise - I just didn't read it when I started playing - that the scum can talk all the time.

I know the above paragraph is WIFOM bullshit from your perspective, dear reader, but it's true.

This has subsequently made me more suspicious of AA. Not much, but some.

WARNING! WARNING! MATHS AHEAD!

Percy, I haven't gone through the calcs and percentages myself, but I think there's something else that might aid our position. Are you accounting for potential crosskills?

Yep, full analysis involves every possibility.

Just in case you want to know how I do it, I'll describe what I did, and my first mistake.

I've got a nice big blackboard at work, but a big piece of paper will do. I start with

4/2/2

written at the top, corresponding to 4 townies, 2 wolves, 2 mafia. I then start a tree diagram, beginning with the lynch, so my next row looks like

3/2/2 4/1/2 4/2/1

with arrows and appropriate probability weightings from the top (1/2 for the first, and 1/4 for the others in this case - with 4 townies, there's a 50% chance we'll hit one if we lynch at random, and so forth). Then, I factor in the NK, so the next row looks like

2/2/2 3/2/1 3/1/2 4/1/1 3/2/1 4/2/0

These are all the possible lineups we could be facing tomorrow. Each of these possibilities is possibly winnable for the town, but some are far better than others. There are, of course, probability arrows that come from each of the possibilities in the second row down to the third row (the arrows coming from the first entry in the second row being 3/5 and 2/5).

This tree becomes incredibly big, and whenever a game ends in a particular faction win scenario, I stop and mark it. I then simply multiply the probabilities along each branch that is marked with a particular faction's win, and add them all together. Then I go to the second faction. This is enough to determine the third faction (the probabilities add up to 1), but I did the third just to confirm.

It's a lot simpler if you have a game with one mafia faction and one town faction - the nightkill simply removes a townie, and each lynch only has two branches, not three. Thus one day only has two possible days that can follow, rather than six. It's not too hard, and everyone should try it if they're making setups.

Initially, I didn't attach weightings to the branches, which was far too optimistic and skewed the results in the town's favour. Whilst it was a working

estimate

, the way I did it the second time around is mathematically sound.

So sorry that's such a long answer to your question, but yes, those probabilities are full and accurate.

MAFIA: YOUR BEST PLAY IS TO CLAIM NOW. WE WILL NOT LYNCH YOU, IN FACT IT WOULD BE TACTICALLY UNSOUND TO LYNCH YOU. CLAIM FOR YOUR OWN SURVIVAL. OTHERWISE, IT IS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THE WOLVES WILL WIN.

Indeed it is, mafia should claim

now

.

hewitt is trying to scumhunt? I'm having a very hard time following you there.

Haha okay I'm actually going to have to agree with you here and not Empking. I think I'm sucking in this game so I'm surprised that he's all the sudden defending me.

This is both chummy and overly dismissive.

FoS: Thesp

[AA23]

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

Scum can talk at any time Khamisa*

Thinking about it - this makes me feel a bit better about Khamisa.

I've had a slip up with the set up myself way back in the posting - - which is to say that at this late in the game - when the rules on what villain roles can do in the game having been mentioned twice already - it's a curious statement. How could that be missed? Twice.

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up. I think in light of this, that he is planting that, and you, Thesp, are hopping on it because he could be your buddy.

In respect to my endgame hypothesis - - could Percy's place be exchanged with Khamisa, I wonder?

Mafiascum - Khamisa, Thesp, Ash
Wolves - Dej, Mix(Sotty)
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, I see what you mean, AA. But still, Dust claiming as Mafia has it's pros and cons.............we should talk about how people have reacted to the claim, which AA has been doing a pretty good job of. Here's my list of people on the wagon.

Scum Read:

Ace

- For trying to mislead the town into thinking Dust has used an apparent scum meta in multiple games whenever he was scum. This was proven as a lie when Ace said that this only happened once when he was later called on it. Reference to posts 152 to 154

Flipped TOWN

Zwet

- Obviously for trying to get a counterclaim. I'm thinking a very likely werewolf.

Flipped TOWN

Emp

- Only loosely though, because of post 106 where he asks for a claim and tells people not to CC if he claims Seer. Like someone else said, he could've been communicating with a partner. That partner obviously being Dust. I'd also say possible werewolf.

Flipped ????

AshMC1984

- He's made 4 short game relevant posts out of the 172 that have been made. What's there to say? Lurking scum? He unvoted after Dusts claim (his vote remained there from the RVS and he apparently never got around to changing it) and votes Zwet for voting without good reasons and trying to get a CC. He, however, doesn't mention Ace, who had the same reason for voting Dust as Zwet.

Flipped SCUM

So my feeling is:

If my read is correct on Dej, he seems to have been hunting townies and scum (the only targets that remain for a Wolf, since he knows who his partner is - MIX)

Note their connection:

Town/ No Read:

AA23 - AA has been seemed pretty town to me in the sense that he hasn't done anything scummy that I remember, and has been generally telling us all with good reasons, who could be scum on the wagon as well as providing different possibilities.

Percy - Hasn't done much of anything scummy, but at the same time, nothing much pro-town either.

Possible Scum Pairs

Zwet/ Ace Werewolfs (Most likely)
Ace/ Ash Mafia (Possible)
Emp/ Dust Werewolves .

No suspicions on Mix, the person I regard as his potential wold partner

.

Suspicions on scum, town, and

Emp!

D1, Dej in fact did give Emp appropriate attention!
-----------------------------------
So I think Dej is Wolf, and his partner is Mix.

1.They never persued a case or anything on eachother, yet shared everything in common with their scope on who's who - they are particularily playing together, they are alligned
2. They danced around the very people they as wolves think are mafiascum - enemy to townies and wolves, yet they establish a relationship with each other and make a point never to suspect one another?

They are BOTH hunting the SAME.

And Mix's actions:

Side note:

@Gorckat

(Thesp)

- You digging to China there?

@Mod - Can we get prods on Ash and Khamisa?

I wonder.

If I'm wrong about Percy, the three scum could have been

Thesp, Ash, and Khamisa

People that Mix deduced on his own accord to potentially be mafia (something that matters to him since he in this instance would be wolf. With Dej.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
In my re-read - - I saw that I had a lot of support from you guys, all of you, everyone on this board made an effort to converse like adults and have fun figuring things out.

I want things to go back to that civility- - -

I'd like to point out that nobody branded me satan over the Dust wagon and I was honest very early about trying to lure scum out of the wood work - - even Dust was on my side with that risk, I have the posts if you guys need.

To the chase - - we all got a long. We can continue to get along.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So to finalize, in like of evaluating Khamisa, doing a re-read from the beginning, and his apparent attempt to seem like clueless towny, I exchange his place in my hypothesis from Percy.

Mafia scum - Thesp, Ash, Khamisa

Wolves - Dej, Mix

Within my hypothesis and observations**

Mix was incredibly scummy with the opportunistic hammer.

His wolf buddy Dej seemingly made a point NOT to suspect him throughout the entire game, yet they have played quite

parallel

to each other -- both of them have kept out of the other's cross hairs, and both have hunted the same people - - which connects me to:

Scum. They hunted the same people I've noted as possible mafiascum.

We have a flipped Ash (who kept his activity low with Gorkcat [thesp] and needed prodding from the suspecting wolf, Mix)

[Percy]

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up.

1. Khamisa is a she.
2. Knowing how many scum there are in this game is different to knowing this game-specific rule allowing scum to daytalk.

If my read is correct on Dej, he seems to have been hunting townies and scum (the only targets that remain for a Wolf, since he knows who his partner is - MIX)

If he was a wolf, he would have no idea whether he was "hunting scum" or "hunting town". Further, expressing suspicion of a scumbuddy is a classic bussing technique, so Ash's flip proves little.

They never persued a case or anything on eachother, yet shared everything in common with their scope on who's who - they are particularily playing together, they are alligned

1. Sotty expressed, and continues to express, suspicion of dej based on his interactions with Empking.
2. Sotty wants me dead, and has stated that she believes I'm scum. She advanced a case on me at the very beginning of today. dejkha has said nothing but "null" or "town read" about me since this game started.

Almost all of what you said is completely unsound. It amazes me how much time and effort you have put in to the above post. It is based on a selective view of the facts, all to make your new "hypothesis" work.

The only thing worth doing here is asking the following question:

@Sotty: What do you think of dejkha?

[Sotty7]

I think Percy is likely to be Ash's partner yes.

Hm sooooo then you're voting for him right? Cause you sound pretty sure of that.

Umm. Yes I am voting for him and have been since my first serious post in this game. You even commented on my case of Percy yourself here and here. This comment is very weird.

hewitt

is trying to scumhunt? I'm having a very hard time following you there.

Haha okay I'm actually going to have to agree with you here and not Empking. I think I'm sucking in this game so I'm surprised that he's all the sudden defending me.

Needs more Sotty7 lynch.

No.

I agree that Khamisa is reading town. When she made this comment:

Why are all these random words being bolded? I think It's a clever form of daytalking between the scum.

...my first thought was to explain how I always bold words within my post, to make it better reflect how I speak (and my internet-voice being close to my real-voice is oddly important to me). However, AA jumped in and told me something I frankly didn't even realise - I just didn't read it when I started playing - that the scum can talk all the time.

I know the above paragraph is WIFOM bullshit from your perspective, dear reader, but it's true.

This has subsequently made me more suspicious of AA. Not much, but some.

Well as far as I am concerned AA also forgot that scum could day talk on day one. His whole case on Emp and the counter claim thing, seemed to me that he had no idea the scum can day talk. So if you and Thesp feel better about Kham now, what do you think about AA in regards to his day one emp case?

1.They never persued a case or anything on eachother, yet shared everything in common with their scope on who's who - they are particularily playing together, they are alligned
2. They danced around the very people they as wolves think are mafiascum - enemy to townies and wolves, yet they establish a relationship with each other and make a point never to suspect one another?

They are BOTH hunting the SAME.

Prove 1 and 2 with quotes from both of us please. I am especially interested in my “relationship” with dej that you seem to see.

I will be looking though people in iso some point soon. After my first read of the game I felt I had a strong hold on my suspicions, now they seem to be leaping all over the place. Hewitt's apparent forgetfulness of my vote on Percy makes me really want to look back on him again at least.

[Sotty7]

@Sotty: What do you think of dejkha?

Right now I think he is fixating on AA. While I can understand and even emphasize with his frustrations I don't think he is paying enough attention to the rest of the game. I have to wonder if this constant back and forth bickering that the two of them have going isn't helping dej hide to a certain degree. Fair enough he does answer questions leveled at him and even defends himself when necessary, but when it comes to actually hunting scum... I'm not really feeling a lot of that from him which is troubling.

[Percy]

Well as far as I am concerned AA also forgot that scum could day talk on day one. His whole case on Emp and the counter claim thing, seemed to me that he had no idea the scum can day talk. So if you and Thesp feel better about Kham now, what do you think about AA in regards to his day one emp case?

Wow, I had forgotten about that. Thanks for reminding me.

I'm much more inclined to believe AA is town now. It wasn't scummy at all for him to remind Khamisa of this possibility.

AA has an incredibly, incredibly frustrating playstyle, but I get this horrible niggling feeling that his heart is in the right place. As I've stated before, I've been very ambivalent about AA, but for now, I'm going to go with tunnelled town.

@Sotty: Your comments on dej are spot on.

Pressure time. Enough sitting on the sidelines.

Unvote, Vote: dejkha

.

At the moment, I believe the town are myself, Khamisa, AA and Sotty. I've got bad vibes from dej, Emp, hewitt and Thesp (and formerly gorckat as well). But right now, I want a dej lynch.

[AA23]

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up.

1. Khamisa is a she.
2. Knowing how many scum there are in this game is different to knowing this game-specific rule allowing scum to daytalk.

@Sotty: What do you think of dejkha?

It has already been mentioned - - early in this game, when I first made the mistake of not being sure about the scumtalk - - that they can do it any time.

It was posted on the first page, it was posted again later when I accused Emp of trying to scumtalk - - it was announced that scum can talk anytime, and everyone was on the same page from there on out

Having a slip like that seems intentional, and it looks like Thesp is feeding on it to perhaps buddy and clear his scumpartner.
----------------
Also - your directed question to Sotty right after telling me I'm selective in what I look at.

Sotty expresses all of these suspicions and queries in Dej but does nothing about it? That's not odd to you?

He's even more confident that someone else is scum, but doesn't vote them?

You ended that post asking him his thoughts on Dej - you came to the same final destination I did - - wanting to know Sotty's reaction to all of this.

I myself am basing my voting and other actions on how the relationships play out. I took time with that post so that you would know where I was coming from.

And do Wolves want town dead? YES
Do wolves want Scum dead? YES

Did Dej and Mix have a relationship and parallel gameplay in who they focused investigative scopes on while conveniently keeping clear of eachother? Yes - - that's the relationship I'm talking about.

Townies don't know for certain who villains are, but we still hunt for them, don't we, Percy? - -how can you tell me I'm baseless to say that wolves are hunting as well. I'm just pointing out the patterns between the two players in the early game until before the replacements.

I for one concur and think Dej is hiding.

He's picking a whole lot of arguments with me and is contributing as little as other people have been accused of.

I'm happy with a Dej/Mix lynch today

[AA23]

I didn't see 773 before I submitted the post.

Yes, I'm town. You don't easily get away with making every existing player want you dead and somehow be in cahoots with them.

My playstyle is aggressive, but I'm not close minded to talking things out - - if people would tell me "I disagree with you on this because" - - even if you tell me it's a GUT feeling, I'm cool with that - just don't tell me I'm wrong and crazy (gen. statement)