Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[X]

*facepalm*

What purpose does this comment serve?

None, really. It's just a generic demonstration of my frustration with anti-town players with Town roles. I've encountered way to many of them for my liking.

[X]

If you have any experience with alvinz95 (or many other good scum players), you know that this is a great tactic: blow up and make a damning statement, such as this, on a town player to divert away from the partner.

Except that alvinz is not a good scum player (or any other kind of good player).

This makes me think that HowardRoark is not Russian.

In other news, he did mention Seraphim a lot D1, and two other players that he mentioned a lot during D1 were: alvinz95 and OGB...

[Seraphim]

I need a good reread of this game as I've been out of Mafia and thinking about other things lately...

I still think ekiM and HR are the last scum. iamusername was a surprise flip but doesn't really give me pause.

[Korts]

---------------
The Russians
---------------

OGB's random vote is

Mixologist (now Lowell), unknown alignment

alvinz's random vote is

skitzer

iamausername's non-random first vote is

alvinz, scumbuddy

OGB's other references:
A

Mufasa, town

vote; a comment on

roflcopter, town's

case against him. Other than this, no relevant comments. OGB is a dead end.

alvinz's other references:

Post 2 ISO

, he makes the following list of points:

1.

Caboose

(probable town)--Korts

is town, and a 'tard at the same time. Here's how I'll crack under pressure: "OH NOES, A WAGON? NOW I'LL JUST CLAIM MILLER/DOCTOR/COP/VIG CAUSE I'M SO PRESSURED INTO GETTING OUT OF IT!" (obviously a joke). Seriously, your thought is a complete rapage of a little hotdog.
2.

OGB

is a waste of space and posts to the town as scum and a 'tard. He's trying to stay under the radar, the best scumtell in all of mafiascum, and has posted nothing of substance except distracting the town from scum hunting then saying "Wtf mangs, WIFOM, you guys are 'tards, why are you voting me?" which still doesn't accomplish anything. He hasn't made any real posts even after his 'game' which is the most scumy part.Get real, or die.
3.

[/b]Mufasa[/b]

is another 'tard by claiming at broad daylight saying that 'he can get protected' which is a really dumb gambit and WIFOM. From his meta it is clear that he is a newbie and bad at claiming. I'm going to label him as a retarded townie.

Note that he labels

Mufasa

as town, like he does with

Caboose

. This makes me think he was more likely buddying in regards to Caboose, especially considering that Caboose picked up the wagon that iam started on his scumbuddy alvinz--I doubt any Russian would help their buddy push another one of their buddies' wagons, at least not without the town supporting the wagon first.

Next alvinz post

is a quote by

Caboose

and a simple comment of "Epic fail at scumhunting". Again, another point for Caboose not being Russian; I doubt alvinz would continuously try to discredit a buddy.

ISO 5

: claims

HowardRoark

is following

Caboose

's vote, yet votes Caboose. Inconsistency between reasoning and order of suspicion implies Howard-alvinz connection.

ISO 7 and 8

further trying to implicate

Caboose

--further strengthening my belief that Caboose is not Russian.

ISO 10

is an analysis of his wagon: says that everyone on his wagon except

roflcopter

and

SpyreX

have "either wagonned, done little, or have acted scummy": this means

HowardRoark

,

darkdude

,

Axelrod

,

Mufasa

,

tubby

,

Starbuck

and

ekiM

. Makes me think that SpyreX might well be Russian, since all his reasoning with his vote on alvinz was was "Ohh see thats a different business all together"; before that, he makes no seperate mention of alvinz, only in quotes of vote counts. He does make a reference to "alvins", though, early on:

Caboose - what the hell is your fixation with an alvins wagon?

Again, motivations for Russians to ask this are obvious.

ISO 11

quotes the post in which

X

votes alvinz; the vote itself is preceded by a weak strawman of an argument, and the reply addresses this more or less. Strikes me as a possible Russian interaction, although bad play is a possibility as well.

ISO 12

should be a very informative post. For one, why was this not quoted before:

I'm going to say there's going to be AT LEAST 3 SCUM on my wagon.

Here's the final vote count on alvinz: alvinz95 (10):

HowardRoark

,

roflcopter

,

SpyreX

,

darkdude

,

Axelrod

,

Mufasa

,

tubby216

,

Starbuck

,

ekiM

,

X

Now, consider that

none

of the dead players so far on his wagon are scum. The players whose alignment we still don't know are: HowardRoark, SpyreX, ekiM, X. I find it unlikely that a Russian wouldn't bus this wagon hard after Caboose's claim, so I have to assume that there's a grain of truth in alvinz' post; I also think, however, that his final outcry was a last ditch attempt at helping his faction, and under the guise of frustration he tried to plant some seeds of paranoia. So according to this logic, there's either one or two Russian scum between Howard/SpyreX/ekiM/X.

HowardRoark, you just majorly screwed yourself over by saying that I was BUDDYING WITH YOU. Good job winning dammit.

This is an interesting comment as well, and worth analysis; I'm not yet sure whether it genuinely implicates HowardRoark or if it's

intended to.

ISO 13

alvinz once more emphasizes that X in particular is doing a bad job of scumhunting, re: ISO 11. Makes me consider the "simply bad play" possibility more likely.

I'll do IAUN and the conclusion a bit later.

[X]

ISO 11

quotes the post in which

X

votes alvinz; the vote itself is preceded by a weak strawman of an argument

How is it a strawman, and how did I not hear about it being a strawman from you before?

Now, consider that

none

of the dead players so far on his wagon are scum. The players whose alignment we still don't know are: HowardRoark, SpyreX, ekiM, X. I find it unlikely that a Russian wouldn't bus this wagon hard after Caboose's claim

I actually think that it would be more likely for an Italian to be on the wagon, seeing as it was someone legitimately scummy, and competition with them. Plus, it's entirely possible that there is no 4th Russian.

I think it's more worthwhile to look for standalone scumtells or Italian tells at this point, because we've killed 3 Russians and only 2 Italians.

I also think, however, that his final outcry was a last ditch attempt at helping his faction, and under the guise of frustration he tried to plant some seeds of paranoia. So according to this logic, there's either one or

two

Russian scum between Howard/SpyreX/ekiM/X.

I have no experience with Large Normal games, but wouldn't a 5-man mafia be a bit extreme for 24 players?

Seraphim, why are you suspicious of ekiM?

[SpyreX]

I'm surprised by IAUN's flip.

I'm also more than a little surprised howard is "town".

I do agree with a lot of Kort's post - the problem is we have one who is confirmed and I'm just not feelin the mojo from Ek or X.

Guess its time to play look at IAUN

[ekiM]

With every flipped scum being a power role, and the Russians already having had two 1-shot vigs flip, I'm finding it quite likely that it's two 3-man scum groups. 6 out of 23 doesn't seem out of order, and the town power roles revealed so far have not been particularly awesome. The idea of 2 more Russians is ludicrous. At the absolute most, 2 more Italians and one more Russian. Most likely in my eyes is no more Russians and one or two more Italians.

Something nobody mentioned yet by the way, with alvinz being a multitasker either the Upper Roccisi 'hood had an ability, or the Russians had more than one ability. Further scum power...

I'm currently finding it pretty likely that Lower Roccisi are both town, despite Seraphim's play this game. I just don't see why they wouldn't have killed the other night one if either were scum independent of the other. Only other possibility in my eyes is both Italian... well, ballsy gambit if so.

I'm wondering if today is the day for massclaim? I don't have any experience in big games, so what do people think?

Alive(10):

05. ekiM

09. populartajo

10. Seraphim

- Lower

12. Korts

14. X

- Lower

15. Lowell

17. HowardRoark

- Innocent result on him, hum. Are we really looking at

two

godfathers in italians, or 4 russians all with power roles including two extra NKs? Thinking this result may be accurate.
19. charter
20. SpyreX

21. Caboose

- Pretty sure based on investigations? And alvinz saved him last night, I guess. Italian cop/rolecop? Outside chance...

Orange = somewhat suspicious of them, no time for proper analysis now unfortunately.

[Lowell]

I'm not thrilled with X's 665 yesterday or 673 today. They seem to "OMG please don't help scum OMG" for my liking.

vote X

[populartajo]

Im sick and for that reason V/LA until tomorrow.

[Caboose]

17. HowardRoark - Innocent result on him, hum. Are we really looking at two godfathers in italians, or 4 russians all with power roles including two extra NKs? Thinking this result may be accurate.

You're neglecting possibility of an SK?

[Korts]

Bah. Apparently I forgot to factor in the three already dead Russians when considering alvinz's ISO 12. I still think there's one more Russian, and if so, they're likely one of the four on alvinz's final wagon who are unconfirmed. Italian(s) may be in that four as well.

How is it a strawman, and how did I not hear about it being a strawman from you before?

I didn't say this before because I missed it; the review of alvinz's posts made me read the quoted post of yours more attentively. Here's alvinz's comment you criticize, followed by your own comment:

Only roflcopter and SpyreX have posted original content. The rest have either wagonned, done little, or have acted scummy.

So HowardRoark, darkdude, Axelrod, Mufasa, tubby216, Starbuck, and ekiM are scum? You must see where this argument falls short. Vote: alvinz95.

alvinz says: "the rest are all either wagoners, reactive, or scummy". You say: "ah, so you say the rest are all scummy! HA! Vote" If you can't see how this argument is obviously broken, I can't help you.

X: what do you think of Seraphim?

[Korts]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that SpyreX pulled an early bus on OGB and tried to ignore alvinz until the investigation claim forced him to do something. It's notable also that iamausername basically ignored SpyreX, making only a single passing comment on his suspicion list, even though both were/are very active posters in the game.

I'm fairly confident in OGB being scum. Furthermore, if he is, like I think... at least one of those early votes is scum.

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter,

SpyreX

, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

If I were scum this is what I'd do: lampshade my actions to make them seem genuine and pre-empt accusations.

I'm gonna have to sleep before I can make up my mind. I'll get on IAUN and a deep analysis of SpyreX when I wake up.

[charter]

Currently thinking ekim or tajo is scum. Tajo's first read of everyone had both ThAd and inHim as prob town. For whatever reason, was devoid in lynching Alvinz.

ekim, his darkdude vote, 484, I feel like that was a giant pile of trying to fit in. He never mentioned inHim. He had this wierd addition to my back and forth with ThAd day one.

vote ekim

Think he's more likely to be scum.

[populartajo]

Still sick but I managed to make a post with some of my thougths.

Guys, Im going to make a big assumption here but I think its the most reasonable one. I doubt we are facing another Russian (I dont find the balance in 4 russians with 2 1-shot vigilantes). Im no expert in balance and such but I feel 6 scum is the right number here: 3 Italians and 3 Russians. Also, look at TDC and his love for order/perfection. I dont think he would put 4 Russians or 2 Italians.

Anyway, if you disagree withe me, then you wont disagree with the idea that its more likely that there is one more Italian than one more Russian.

So I think the focus today is to find the very likely last Italian instead of a hypotehycal Russian.

When I made my post 421 I concluded that some people couldnt be Italians.
Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Starbuck, Skitzer, darkdude
Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Seraphim, skitzer, charter.

Really when I see the list of players alive I think we are facing a very skilled scum. I get a majority of townie/neutral reads here:

05. ekiM - last post feels protown, still neutral, will have to reread him more.
09. populartajo - awesome town
10. Seraphim - prob town
12. Korts - neutral, will need to reread him more.
14. X - neutral leaning townie, will need to reread him
15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.
17. HowardRoark - scummy. very unlikely russian but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since big part of my case against him was his alvinz relationship
19. charter - obv town
20. SpyreX - prob town
21. Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

Also, with the assumptions I made, my suspicions of HowardRock dont fly anymore. I think the guy is scummy as fuck but really my case was mostly his relation as scum with Russian alvinz and as I explained before, I dont think we have another Russian.

Finallly, thoughts of massclaim people. I really think we are very close (if not there) to solve this game seeing it as a puzzle as another weapon for scumhunting.

[populartajo]

i just found out that caboose was breadcrumbing very heavily that he had a guilty result on alvinz early day 1. And by very heavily I talk about words like :

caboose, why would you rather policy vote/lynch alvinz than pursue what you agree is a legitimate argument in favor of voting ogb?

Not a policy vote.
You'll see....

So it is a policy vote then? Please make up your mind.

No, it's not a policy vote. It's a pressure vote. But it's failing since no one is wagoning.More alvinz wagon.
Trust me, it'll be worth it.

Still keeping my vote, and encouraging more.

me thinks a town cop would at least want to be less obvious about his guilty result even in day 1, like you know, trying to not get night killed by the mafia partners of the guilty result you have or like, you know, trying to get another result.

its even worse when you check that the most likely Italian coming from an anaysis of inhim and admiral is this same very player. Ad attacked Caboose for defending Mufasa when he did the same in the very same post. Inhim along Ad, fixated with Caboose early. But inhim didnt develop his suspicions on him. Forced relationships.

the best part is that it fits with rolf's suggestions that the italians for some reason didnt protect their godfather inhim night one. They didnt protect a heavy suspected target that night, they protected a very likely russian night kill target.

The answers : Caboose.

vote:caboose.

[ekiM]

17. HowardRoark - Innocent result on him, hum. Are we really looking at two godfathers in italians, or 4 russians all with power roles including two extra NKs? Thinking this result may be accurate.

You're neglecting possibility of an SK?

Hmm. We already have two mafia killing groups, two mafia 1-shots, a compulsive town vig, and a claimed town group with a further vig ability. I'm not sure there's room in there for another nightly killer. Will look at the kill patterns later and see if it fits at all.

Bah. Apparently I forgot to factor in the three already dead Russians when considering alvinz's ISO 12. I still think there's one more Russian, and if so, they're likely one of the four on alvinz's final wagon who are unconfirmed. Italian(s) may be in that four as well.

I don't know how deductively useful this is. There was no incentive for

anybody

not to go against alvinz once Caboose outed himself to claim a guilty result on him. Town, Russian, Italian, other, they all should go for the guy with an claimed investigation against him, no matter what team he is on.

ekim, his darkdude vote, 484, I feel like that was a giant pile of trying to fit in.

Ummmm, that was the fourth post of the day, the first substantial post of the day, and the second vote of the day. I'm not sure how that can read as "trying to fit in".

He never mentioned inHim

True. There were 21 players to look at and I never mentioned inHim. Shrug.

He had this wierd addition to my back and forth with ThAd day one.

Quote it and explain why it is problematic. IIRC ThAd had some questions about why OGB was scummy that were mainly directed at you and I responded to them. So what?

---

Hopefully more time at the weekend.

[X]

Only roflcopter and SpyreX have posted original content. The rest have either wagonned, done little, or have acted scummy.

So HowardRoark, darkdude, Axelrod, Mufasa, tubby216, Starbuck, and ekiM are scum? You must see where this argument falls short. Vote: alvinz95.

alvinz says: "the rest are all either wagoners, reactive, or scummy". You say: "ah, so you say the rest are all scummy! HA! Vote" If you can't see how this argument is obviously broken, I can't help you.

Oh, okay. I see where you're coming from. I was more responding to this statement of alvinz's:

Does this look like a valid lynch?

That statement implies that it is scum-driven; that the majority of people on the lynch are scum.

X: what do you think of Seraphim?

I've been sort of suspicious of him for a while. Most of my opinion of him hasn't changed since my neighbor claim of him. No one has explained to me why the nighttalk between us is indicative of him being scum, but I can understand not explaining until after Seraphim does his paraphrase.

---

ekiM, the thing I found odd about you was that you voted alvinz95 to L-1 in your first post of D2. You didn't want to slow down and ask anyone questions about their actions so far in D2?

populartajo comes to conclusions quickly in his lists, shown by some of the flips that he put on the opposite side of their alignment. No matter. His latest case against Caboose, I'm afraid, probably falls into this category as well. It's a long shot, but he's helped us so far.

Seraphim is a possible Italian, as previously described.

Korts pretty strongly defended OGB throughout his first few ISO posts. He also attacked Seraphim for...well...I'm not even sure. Padding his posts in the early stage? He does switch back to OGB when it becomes obvious that OGB isn't helping, which makes sense no matter what his alignment is. Just noticed that this statement sounds like from someone with knowledge:

... then it's a pretty reasonable assumption that the night zero death was caused by the compulsive vig.

No, it's not reasonable to assume that the mafia don't have any Night 0 shots. Not reasonable at all.

Other than this, I don't see much that points to his intentions being pro-mafia, although his play doesn't seem normal to me. I should probably check on his meta sometime.

Lowell's most recent post I really don't understand. Mixologist was sporadic in his posting. I am very decidedly undecided on his alignment.

HowardRoark could potentially be a Russian Godfather, which would fit with the whole TDC liking symmetry, but I Am discredited the possibility that HowardRoark was

not

linked to alvinz95.

charter looks town enough to me.

SpyreX's opinions haven't changed much since post 196. That piques my suspicion a bit, because in the game that I was Mafia, I wrote a suspicion list early in the game, and referred back to it before writing posts. SpyreX is still suspicious of HowardRoark and Seraphim, albeit for more developed reasons. SpyreX, what do you think of Korts and Lowell?

Caboose is a Cop, no way around it. His alignment is probably town, but we can't be certain.

Caboose, you need to scumhunt more. You've contented yourself with mostly posting investigation results and the occasional post to show your presence. Who do you think is scum?

[populartajo]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

[X]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

Because Cops usually are. That's the meta.

[populartajo]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

Because Cops usually are. That's the meta.

facepalm.

can you say the same about doctors and vigilantes?

[X]

His (Caboose) alignment is probably town

Why?

Because Cops usually are. That's the meta.

facepalm.

can you say the same about doctors and vigilantes?

Vigilante, by regular definition, is pro-town. TDC redefined it to be any kill ability. Doctors are usually, but not always. But I see what you're referring to - ThAdmiral's role. Alright, I'll bite.

Vote: Caboose

.

[populartajo]

Why didnt you see what I was referring to before?

HowardRoark could potentially be a Russian Godfather, which would fit with the whole TDC liking symmetry, but I Am discredited the possibility that HowardRoark was not linked to alvinz95.

Can you clarify this? I dont get it.

[charter]

Why the fuck are we voting Caboose? He is the last peson I'm going to be voting for a while.

Working on a response to ekim, but X just jumped up in scumminess.

[SpyreX]

SpyreX's opinions haven't changed much since post 196. That piques my suspicion a bit, because in the game that I was Mafia, I wrote a suspicion list early in the game, and referred back to it before writing posts. SpyreX is still suspicious of HowardRoark and Seraphim, albeit for more developed reasons. SpyreX, what do you think of Korts and Lowell?

I like Kort's last set of posts, a lot - sans the fact MY name keeps getting brought up of course.

Lowell is skating still.

I see what tajo is saying, but I have a really hard time stomaching killing a claimed cop. I need to think about that a bit more.

[X]

Why didnt you see what I was referring to before?

I have no idea.

HowardRoark could potentially be a Russian Godfather, which would fit with the whole TDC liking symmetry, but I Am discredited the possibility that HowardRoark was not linked to alvinz95.

Can you clarify this? I dont get it.

Sure. HowardRoark has shown Russian and general scumtells. There are three Russian mafiosi dead, but none are a Godfather. Usually scumgroups include a Godfather. The Italian scumgroup included a Godfather. Caboose has given us accurate results in the past, and he announced an Innocent on HowardRoark. And as you said, TDC likes balance and making things even. If he gave a GF to one mafia group, he would likely give one to the other mafia group as well.
The problem arises when you look at alvinz95 and I Am, both Russians. alvinz95 implied in Twilight that HowardRoark was his scumbuddy. And when HowardRoark said that alvinz was pulling a gambit, I Am said that alvinz wasn't good enough to pull that gambit, thus

making it look like HowardRoark was Russian

. That would not be an intelligent move if I Am and HowardRoark were Russians together. I Am was Russian, therefore HowardRoark is not Russian. QED.

Why the fuck are we voting Caboose? He is the last peson I'm going to be voting for a while.

Show me a post, other than investigation results, written by Caboose, where he helps the Town.

SpyreX, I asked you a question. What do you think of Korts and Lowell?