Newbie 799 - Katana Village (Game Over!)

[GreenDude]

I meant me now we

---

VOTE COUNT

(2) Lab Mafia - nureins, edmund.angles

(2) GreenDude - SilverFang, Mevorra
(1) wickedswami - Belili
(1) SilverFang - GreenDude
(1) NO LYNCH - wickedswami

Not Voting: Lab Mafia, WeepingWind


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: July 3, 2009 12:01 pm PST

[nureins]

Well that was rather plain, could you maybe say who you ARE suspicious of?

Why do you need me telling who I am suspicious of in page 4 ??
I am not about to vote anyone, and I have not big suspicions. Indeed, I prefer all players to participate and share questions/small observations before starting to wonder who is a "suspect".

Unless perhaps you're suspicious of me in which case you're not going to say so because if we lynch someone other then me then I will kill you if I'm the mafia because you said you were suspicious of me, then again on the other hand, if i don't kill you then you might asume I'm not mafia because you weren't killed.

too many conjectures. I am not more suspect of you than of other players. I will announce my suspicions when they are clear. And I will push a wagon on the player i consider more suspicious. You will notice very clearly, I can certify that. You can ask edmund about my "push-the-suspect" level in my other games.

@wickedswami, I'm not as suspicious of you anymore although you didn't find the hole in my thoughts which I placed purposely.

Might you tell us which hole and why you placed that hole purposedly? what did you want to test?

But, could you say whom you are suspicious of?? EVEN, if it's me.

I am not suspicious of anyone yet. Are you nervous?

[GreenDude]

No, i'm not nervous, but I'd like to know so I can have a proper defense.

The hole i'm talking about is:

Quote:
2 votes is not "only 2 votes" when there's only 5 votes required to kill me.
I'm taking into account here that there are some very unactive people here,
who might just skim through the thread, seeing who was voted on before and just hop on the bandwagon.

people don't vote on who voted on whom, so therefore you're assuming that the

inactives are townies

because a mafia wouldn't vote on you THAT fast.



Quote:
I think i'll agree with you on voting to lynch the most inactive players.

but you didn't vote! is that because

one of the inactives is scum

?




In one comment I say the inactive are townies and in the other comment I say one could be scum. I said that to see whether Wickedswami would look carefully through my comments. Clearly he didn't. I don't know what that could mean.

[WeepingWind]

@Weeping: It is exactly that you' simply' made an observation that I find a little suspicious, you didn't follow up with any analysis, so if green got lynched and flipped town you could simply say: 'Hey, I only made an observation'.

I was trying to generate discussion. I have never played mafia this way before, and don't fully understand it. Please correct me if I am wrong to try to create discussion. Also, I didn't ask for a lynch.

Correct me if I am wrong, I am not english native speaker. When you said,
"green is posting an AWFUL lot", werent you taking a position in this discussion? The position that talking a lot was bad? In any case, do you consider talking a lot bad for town?

This has already been addressed, it is a figure of speech.

That paragraph sounded to me like repeating things that have been said, especially the irrelevant ones that are said in the beginning of the game (mostly by boring ICs). Weeping, I repeat my previous question. Were you taking a position with your comment or not? And if you took a position, what is it based on, please comment us...

I am sorry for repeating. No, I was not taking a position. I have no strong opinions on players as of yet, but I am analyzing.

[Belili]

Belili has been prodded.

*orgasms*

Sorry - this was graduation weekend for me. Lost track of things.

After reading all that I missed - I'm a bit torn on wicked and green dude.

No lynch is a bad idea. Not sure if that means wicked's mafia or it's a common newb opinion.

Greendude on the other hand seems eager to kill people for a myriad of reasons. Inactivity being one... which doesn't make much sense. In fact a lot of what he says makes little sense.

I know this doesn't help my cause if he is mafia and is lynched, but from what I remember "laying low" is a common newb-mafia trait. Greendude hasn't been quiet at all. Also he was the first to /confirm - indicating an eagerness to play rather than to kill. Posting a lot could just be his style. That would inevitably lead to statements that could be used against him - mafia or not.

But for now - irrationality seems to be the biggest lead.

unvote

vote: greendude

[GreenDude]

@Belili: No, I am not eager to kill people and I did not suggest killing the inactive. My words make little sense because I'm speaking outloud for the benefit of others. I was not the first to confirm either. Get your facts right please!

[wickedswami]

I don't think greendude is mafia. He's just throwing out his ideas, making everyone a bit more talkative, which might eventually lead to some mafiaguy saying something wrong and giving himself away.

I think I'll agree with what most people seem to say about day1 nolynching, but I won't lynch someone just because there 'should' be a lynch on day one. If I have a hunch on someone (which I don't really have yet) and it seems like other people feel the same way. I'll make sure to vote that person.

people I am must suspicious of atm (though nothing serious yet) are nureins, mevorra and silverfang. It's just a feeling for now, I can't really point out why so I wouldn't look after it too much just yet

[edmund.angles]

@IC: How does a "no lynch" vote actually work?
@Weeping and Mevorra: You don't need watertight cases, sligth suspicion is enough, at least in the beginning. None of us (except scum) "know" anything. If noone puts pressure on the others then mafia wins. So try to be a bit more paranoid (Like: Is he just avoiding controvercy himself by posting "helpful" comments.). It's not personal attacks, it's what we signed up for (we're all masochists).

@Belini:

Greendude on the other hand seems eager to kill people for a myriad of reasons. Inactivity being one... which doesn't make much sense. In fact a lot of what he says makes little sense.

I know this doesn't help my cause if he is mafia and is lynched, but from what I remember "laying low" is a common newb-mafia trait.

What? Doesn't make sense to be suspicious of inactivity despite "laying low" being a common newb-mafia trait?

[Mevorra]

@mevorra: Not talking much is somewhat scummy, I'm not saying that you're scum, but I'd like you to talk more and to voice you opinions more often.

To be honest, I think this might be a timezone problem, or something like that.

Live in Sweden with GMT+1, and it seems that during the day (when I check the forums) there are very few posts being made, and when I go up in the morning, another page has been added, which grants me a new opinion, and I might post something, and then I have to wait for the next morning.

Anyway I will read through the new posts once more after I've made lunch, and then I'll reply with my opinions.

[Mevorra]

@mevorra: Not talking much is somewhat scummy, I'm not saying that you're scum, but I'd like you to talk more and to voice you opinions more often.

To be honest, I think this might be a timezone problem, or something like that.

Live in Sweden with GMT+1, and it seems that during the day (when I check the forums) there are very few posts being made, and when I go up in the morning, another page has been added, which grants me a new opinion, and I might post something, and then I have to wait for the next morning.

Anyway I will read through the new posts once more after I've made lunch, and then I'll reply with my opinions.

[Mevorra]

I've developed a theory.

If I had to make a guess which couple was the scumcouple right now, I'd say GreenDude and wickedswami.

Read through the forums again, and check out their posts. A common factor for pretty much all GreenDude's been voting about has had to do with wickedswami. And most of his larger posts have been directed to wickedswami.
The same goes for wickedswami, his posts have clearly been drawing towards GreenDude.

The idea popped up when I read this post

I think everyone is a bit suspicious about wickedswami. So I suggest this:
we put pressure on him. And IF we lynch him, then we find out whether he's mafia or not. If he is... great! If not, he was directing all our mafia finding energy on him, which wasn't helping us, and we will beable to get a move on finding the mafia. AND, if he was townie and we win, he wins too. Seems like a win win situation for me.

This is an attempt to show that
1. GreenDude and wickedswami aren't scum together
2. GreenDude wants to help the village
3. wickedswami should be lynched.

I think GreenDude realizes that this idea of his will probably not be the governing idea of the first days lynching, and therefore, the only effect this post will have is to "prove" them not being connected in any way.

I'll keep my eyes out for these guys.

[wickedswami]

heh mevorra you're actually right. I've been thinking about it as well, we do sound like that. But the only reason I've addressed most of my posts to greendude is because he was always the one attacking me and always the one with the most outspoken arguments.

Even though belili also voted me, he's not really active in the game.

[nureins]

But for now - irrationality seems to be the biggest lead.

Why do you consider irrationality as a scum signal?
If you consider Green irrational, wouldnt be the same case if he is scum or townie?

With respect to inactivity not having sense in Green´s position, I found this quite strange. In the same post, you claim that "laying low" is a common newbie mafia trait. Then, how would be green´s position nonsense??

Also, there is something I would like you to expand. You said you are a bit torn on wicked and green. Is the reason his No-lynch proposal? because you said you dont know if this means he is mafia or simply a newbie opinion...

people I am must suspicious of atm (though nothing serious yet) are nureins, mevorra and silverfang. It's just a feeling for now, I can't really point out why so I wouldn't look after it too much just yet

Please update your position when feelings become articulated opinions, so you can tell us why you are suspicious of us.

[edmund.angles]

@nureins: You obviously didn't read my last post. I asked for an IC clarification which you didn't give and you repeat a question I posed Belini. Have you started skimming through the thread?

[SilverFang]

@mevorra: Not talking much is somewhat scummy, I'm not saying that you're scum, but I'd like you to talk more and to voice you opinions more often.

Being the most active player is he trying to prove his innocence? This coupled with

[SilverFang]

@mevorra: Not talking much is somewhat scummy, I'm not saying that you're scum, but I'd like you to talk more and to voice you opinions more often.

Being the most active player is he trying to prove his innocence? This coupled with Mevorra's theory seems to point to GreenDude as mafia.

[GreenDude]

@mevorra: As I was reading your theory I couldn't help laughing. It was sooo far from the truth, but yet it could work. But, the only reason I went after wickedswami was to see his reaction and to judge whether he is scum or not, he was adressing back because I was putting suspicioun on him and suggested lynching him!! What if my plan had back fired?? No. Your theory works but you forgot about silverfang.

@silverfang: Could you look back at my post about my suspicions about you and answer them??

Btw, I don't see why I have 3 votes on my since I am contributing greatly, I was the one that got wickedswami's reaction(which in my opinion proves he's not scum) but since you're thinking it's part of our scum strategy I guess I my work was to waste. And then when I flip townie you'll just blame it on me saying that I made myself look scummy. But mark my words, I'll bet that those 2 scums have their votes placed on my right.... now!!

[Belili]

But for now - irrationality seems to be the biggest lead.

Why do you consider irrationality as a scum signal?
If you consider Green irrational, wouldnt be the same case if he is scum or townie?

With respect to inactivity not having sense in Green´s position, I found this quite strange. In the same post, you claim that "laying low" is a common newbie mafia trait. Then, how would be green´s position nonsense??

Also, there is something I would like you to expand. You said you are a bit torn on wicked and green. Is the reason his No-lynch proposal? because you said you dont know if this means he is mafia or simply a newbie opinion...

Irrationality could be purposeful, hence why I consider it a possible scum trait.

I claimed both things in the same post to point out my thought process. There's no 100% correct path to take, especially in the first round. I was trying to give the pros/cons.

I was torn on wicked because of the no-lynch.

Ok let's review votes so far.

Belili --> Wicked, Greendude
nuerins --> Lab mafia
Mevorra --> Neurins, Greendude
Edmund --> Mevorra, Lab Mafia
Greedude --> Wicked, Silverfang, Wicked, Silverfang
Silverfang --> Greendude
Wicked --> No Lynch

Is it reasonable to assume that the mafia team wouldn't vote for each other? Especially if they are near-lynched. Isn't it also reasonable to assume that if 3 townies vote for 1 townie, then the mafia would join the bandwagon?

Well this opens a possibility of greendude/nuerins or greendude/edmund.

Greendude has 3 votes right now? Am I right? Well if greendude is a townie, then the mafia could easily bandwagon and kill him. Yet they have not. This leads me to think there are two possibilities.

Greendude is a townie and belili, mevorra, and/or wicked are mafia.

Greendude is a mafia and nuerins or edmund are mafia.

Am I making sense?

[nureins]

@nureins: You obviously didn't read my last post. I asked for an IC clarification which you didn't give and you repeat a question I posed Belini. Have you started skimming through the thread?

1. I never skim posts.
2. I was commenting posts one by one as I usually do. I noticed you had posted already my comment. I maintained it, as I considered it relevant.
3. I postponed the IC question for a final comment, and then I forgot.

If a majority of voters vote NO-lynch, then nobody is lynched and the mod moves the game to the night phase, where mafia can (or not) kill someone.

No-lynching is clearly a bad strategy at the beginning of a newbie game, since we have to lynch correctly sometime to win the game as town. If we vote No-lynch, then we cannot lynch any mafia. There are also other associated gains, such as diminishing the number of suspects for town powerroles, or creating information for town powerroles. The disadvantages, compared to all these advantages are pretty scarce, and there is a huge consensus that No-lynch is bad.

Being the most active player is he trying to prove his innocence? This coupled with Mevorra's theory seems to point to GreenDude as mafia.

That is basically a "too town to be town" WIFOM argument. You are accusing green of being scum because he is doing something that townies do. You give no proof that he is fakedly posting much to try to appear as a townie. Hence, posting a lot is something minimally pro-town that you would consider as favouring him. Saying that mafia would post a lot to try to appear as townies is wifom. And, at the end, it is pro-town. Hopefully all mafia members try to post a lot to appear as townies. It is the only way for town to have more information.

I think Green deserves one post himself about his "hole", his "plan" and wicked...later ill try to analyze all that...

Irrationality could be purposeful, hence why I consider it a possible scum trait.

It could be also his way. Do you have any particular reason to suspect he is being irrational in purpose? He is faking to be irrational as a scum plan? Please explain that plan and where you found this, as I cannot see that anywhere.

I claimed both things in the same post to point out my thought process. There's no 100% correct path to take, especially in the first round. I was trying to give the pros/cons.

That is fine, but you took a position by voting him and considering him scummy. And especially, by saying that your biggest lead was irrationality. This means, I guess, that you consider the "irrationality" an scumtell. Please explain me why.

With respect to scumpairs, I think you run too much. It is nice that you start to think about scumpairs, but the first mission for town is to find one scum. Once you find one, you can better read the connections with the rest of the players.

[Belili]

@ nureins

I disagree - I think scumpairs are a useful way to think about this. When we lynch someone this round - we're statistically unlikely to nab a scum. But if we proceed thinking ahead, we can at least set up two educated picks for the next two rounds.

Let's say we lynch Greendude. If he's mafia, we have two suspects and are in great shape.

If he's a townie, we have three suspects (one of them being me =/) and have a much better chance of getting a scum in round 2.

As to irrationality - I am assuming that Greendude is a rational person. I could be wrong =p. If he is, irrationality is a symptom of deception... or heavy drinking. Could go either way.

[nureins]

Let's say we lynch Greendude.

Basically, this is what Greendude was suggesting to do with Wicked.
Is that scummy? or simply the fact that he is irrational? I would appreciate your clarification on what you find so especially scummy in green.

If he's mafia, we have two suspects and are in great shape.

I would recommend you to do the maths again before proposing lynches so happily. First, in the case Green is mafia, and in the case 3 people voting him are townies, there would be 5 more players around. How do you end up with only 2 suspects??

1 + 3 + 2 = 9...

umm such maths...

If he's a townie, we have three suspects (one of them being me =/) and have a much better chance of getting a scum in round 2.

In the case he was a townie, there would be a small larger chance that some of you was scum, but not very clear who, how many etc...game is never so obvious.

Moreover, this will happen with any player you consider. You can think of wicked at the moment Green put him at L-2. He had 3 votes, as Green has. You can make the same analysis. You can make the same analysis of any player. At the end, what town wants is to lynch the most suspicious player. And I will vote the player I find more suspicious when I think is the time.

For the moment, random stage is over to my eyes.

Unvote

As to irrationality - I am assuming that Greendude is a rational person.

Why?
And why would be a rational person simulate to be irrational as scum?




If he's a townie, we have three suspects (one of them being me =/) and have a much better chance of getting a scum in round 2.

As to irrationality - I am assuming that Greendude is a rational person. I could be wrong =p. If he is, irrationality is a symptom of deception... or heavy drinking. Could go either way.[/quote]

[WeepingWind]

Ok let's review votes so far.

Belili --> Wicked, Greendude
nuerins --> Lab mafia
Mevorra --> Neurins, Greendude
Edmund --> Mevorra, Lab Mafia
Greedude --> Wicked, Silverfang, Wicked, Silverfang
Silverfang --> Greendude
Wicked --> No Lynch

Is it reasonable to assume that the mafia team wouldn't vote for each other? Especially if they are near-lynched. Isn't it also reasonable to assume that if 3 townies vote for 1 townie, then the mafia would join the bandwagon?

Well this opens a possibility of greendude/nuerins or greendude/edmund.

Greendude has 3 votes right now? Am I right? Well if greendude is a townie, then the mafia could easily bandwagon and kill him. Yet they have not. This leads me to think there are two possibilities.

Greendude is a townie and belili, mevorra, and/or wicked are mafia.

Greendude is a mafia and nuerins or edmund are mafia.

Am I making sense?

You are making perfect sense. There are several reasons why the mafia might not bandwagon.

1. GreenDude is mafia.
We have no real evidence of this.

2. So the town will think GreenDude is mafia.
It seems most of the town already thinks GreenDude should be lynched.

3. They have already voted for GreenDude.
This is possible, but we have no proof.

4. They are waiting for the town to decide with certainty before jumping on the bandwagon.
The town would be distracted with the lynch and would not notice potentially scummy behavior. This puts me into suspicion as I have not voted yet.

5. They are dividing their votes and distancing themselves from each other, and will not both jump on a bandwagon.
This strategy is very much used, and works well.


There are others, but these are probably the most likely to be used. Any of them could be true or false, I am not sure at this point.

At this moment, I am most suspicious of SilverFang and Mevorra, though these are hunches and I don't have real evidence.

[Mevorra]

Is it reasonable to assume that the mafia team wouldn't vote for each other? Especially if they are near-lynched. Isn't it also reasonable to assume that if 3 townies vote for 1 townie, then the mafia would join the bandwagon?

No, this would not be the case.
If you vote for your scum friend as a mafia member, it makes you look less friendly to that person. It's a smart move.
Also, if there were 3 votes for a person this early into the game, and suddenly 2 more just hop in and agree, I would be extreeemely suspicious of these 2 hoppers, because they'd look a lot like scum.

@mevorra: As I was reading your theory I couldn't help laughing. It was sooo far from the truth, but yet it could work. But, the only reason I went after wickedswami was to see his reaction and to judge whether he is scum or not, he was adressing back because I was putting suspicioun on him and suggested lynching him!! What if my plan had back fired?? No. Your theory works but you forgot about silverfang.

May I ask why you were laughing? Because it was far away from the truth, or because it wasn't?

[nureins]

@labmafia: Please, post your extended comments on the game up to now

[edmund.angles]

2. I was commenting posts one by one as I usually do. I noticed you had posted already my comment. I maintained it, as I considered it relevant.

I find this posting strategy somewhat confusing for the people reading the tread, it confused me at least:-).

@Belini: Please answer the question, why did you say that it didn't make sense for green to be suspicious of inactivity, when you admitted it was a common newb-scum strategy?
Also:

Greendude has 3 votes right now? Am I right? Well if greendude is a townie, then the mafia could easily bandwagon and kill him.

What? Throw two more votes on in rapid succession, that would be great scum play . Aren't you simplifying this a bit too much?