Mini 792 - Tofu Mafia. Game over!

[Elmo]

Once you move your vote away, there is no longer anything to be gained

Frankly, withholding the information she gained from the deep meta, her votes, discussion, and everything else has made her a detriment to this town.

Both of these are conclusions rather than reasoning. And the latter: how, precisely? I mean, how does

not

doing something actively harm the town? At worst you can say it's similar to lurking.

[Lord Gurgi]

Once you move your vote away, there is no longer anything to be gained

Frankly, withholding the information she gained from the deep meta, her votes, discussion, and everything else has made her a detriment to this town.

Both of these are conclusions rather than reasoning. And the latter: how, precisely? I mean, how does

not

doing something actively harm the town? At worst you can say it's similar to lurking.

Not doing something while setting the expectation can only distract us.

[Elmo]

Again, you're stating that conclusion without showing me the reasoning behind it. Can I haz reasoning?

[Adel]

Here's the deal: I agree with SpyreX. I think Adel is scum. I find that his inflammatory statements were intended to distract from, you know, the issue at hand. While he may argue that confrontational is his style, the way in which it was done (most pointedly that he continued to blame SpyreX for it happening in the first place rather than trying to put an end to it, and denying the very nature of it besides) come off as scum trying to cover his ass. The fact that you feel nothing for literally driving him from the game shows that you're scum trying to get rid of the early proponent of your lynch and/or a massive ass. In regards to the "holy grail", I would love to see some of this famed analysis before the day is over. You have pushed at least three wagons (SpyreX, Porkens, and one other I can't remember) without ever bothering to supply your reasoning. There is

no

town motivation for continuing to withhold your thought processes after you have moved your vote. Even if you find them irrelevant now, for the benefit of credibility you should share so that we know that there is logic, as easy as it is to ride on reputation. As a preemptive safeguard, do not post one of your charts without any following analysis. I can make pretty charts, too, I don't care about seeing what is public information spread out with nice colours, I want to know what you think. As it is, you have contributed nothing to this game which distinguishes you from anyone else. Talking, yelling, and arguing just don't cut it if you want us to also take your word on the benefits of your reputation.

That might be more than five sentences.

My point, Elmo, is that you approach arguments (like earlier this page) and go after the assumptions rather than the reasoning. While I understand that's strictly a good idea, it comes off as odd, to me.

Adel: Why are you alive?

I'm a powerrole.

fucking unvote me now, please.

[Porkens]

Soft claims are tech.

[Adel]

Soft claims are tech.

unvote, vote: Porkens

for hammering Hero, riding Atrem, "knowing" that SpryrX was obvious town, and for voting me without having intelligent reasons for voting for me, and for accusing me of stalling and not contributing while he was even more guilty of the very same thing..

[DrippingGoofball]

Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim can take a lifetime.

[Adel]

are you asking me to do a full claim?

[Porkens]

Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim can take a lifetime.

<3

[Adel]

Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim can take a lifetime.

<3

totally typical of your posts in this game.

[caf19]

Votecount

Adel (4): Vi, Lord Gurgi, Porkens, springlullaby
springlullaby (2): Zorblag, DrippingGoofball
Porkens (2): Ectomancer, Adel

Not voting

Elmo

[Lord Gurgi]

Again, you're stating that conclusion without showing me the reasoning behind it. Can I haz reasoning?

Okay, the two year old version.

Adel is known for deep-meta analysis and meaningful contributions to the town most commonly in the form of lynching scum.

Adel has not provided deep-meta analysis not meaningful contributions to the town, primarily lacking in stating reasoning behind actions.

Stating reasons behind actions is necessary because in order to hunt for scum, we have to get information from players, in the form of reasons why they do what they do. Withholding these reasons indicates an unwillingness to give that information in an effort to remain unreadable. Such an action is far more likely from scum than not.

Further, she has acted unlike her characteristic town-aligned self, which indicates to me that she is not town.

Going beyond this, she has taken no effort to defend against my accusations and has ignored them. Refusing to defend onesself is stupid. Refusing to defend onesself as town distracts the town from lynching scum and likely gets you lynched, this is anti-town.

Because Adel is acting in ways that are more likely to come from scum than town, I believe her to be scum.

Is that sufficient?

Adel: May I take that submission that you are stalling and not contributing as agreement with my above points?

Also, full claim. Wait for everyone else to check in, but I want a full claim.

One last thing. Why are you voting Porkens for saying what DGB said after?

I lied.

Porkens: Please address what I said in #939.

[Adel]

dude, I'm still at lynch -1. unvote me, please. Then I'll play nice.

[Adel]

What do you mean "go after"? If you mean 'attack', I don't think that's true. If you mean 'seek out', I'm equally interested in the reasoning; I don't seem to have either at the moment.

Gurgi, there is not a lot of reasoning in there. Like, it "comes off" as scum trying to cover his ass - well, why? Why does blaming SpyreX make it more likely? Et cetera.

There is

no

town motivation for continuing to withhold your thought processes after you have moved your vote.

I would like the reasoning behind this statement especially.

Because the town Adel that I have played with doesn't care if he started the flame war, he starts them on purpose. Blaming SpyreX is uncharacteristic. It set off the national guard.

I

didn't

start a flame war with him. Instead of laying low and letting other player come forward with opinion and information, he set about trying to lynch me like he was a lyncher and I was his target.

When you vote someone, there can be a town-benefit for not saying why, so you withhold it for a while. Once you move your vote away, there is no longer anything to be gained, in fact withholding something that you find might incriminate said player should be shared if you are town, regardless of whether or not you find it conclusive enough to lynch them.

unless you want to keep your real opinions and tactics hidden from scum, liek I usually do.

The town motivation for failing that is null, while the scum could get away with any number of things.

I disagree, as demonstrated by any game you might care to look at where from the last year I was town.

Frankly, withholding the information she gained from the deep meta, her votes, discussion, and everything else has made her a detriment to this town.

Day 1 was cut short by the "accidental" hammer, and Day 2 has been all about me getting lynched. I've put a lot information into defending myself and not claiming, and I'm about dry. This game has taken a lot of effort, with very little pay off.

[Adel]

this fucking town is retarded. Spring is able to just camp out with a vote on me, Porkens is unchallenged for "accidental" hammer and "blind" voting, meanwhile I've:
1. stopped the Atrem wagon (which Porkens and spring were on)
2. challenged a role claim
3. was confirmed by Hero

I haven't produced any miracles, but I haven't had a chance to produce any. Day 1 was cut short, and day 2 has been nearly useless.

If you are confirmed town, you don't lead the town until everyone has taken positions.

I only soft claimed because I could see DGB or Ecto hammering me if either of them are scum.

Please don't force me to full-claim, get me away from lynch-1, and I'll start answering direct questions that can actually be given a direct answer... please spare me the opened essay questions.

[Adel]

*open-ended essay questions.

[Adel]

this isn't even hard:

SpyreX is obvtown.

unvote, vote Adel

30 min later:

Did you really read all of the posts in this thread, since your last post, before your vote on me? Did you really think about all of those exchanges?

I skimmed. I didn't absorb much; it's all turning into white noise at this point (megapost v. megapost). But I do know SpyreX's claiming/shooting habits as vig, and I take that to be your main point against him even though you claim to do "deep, psycological meta analysis."

and he still hasn't stated why he is voting for me.

fucking read the posts he has made today. seriously, that is all that it takes.

[Vi]

Underlined are all rationalizations that I noticed while putting this together.

Adel #3: Questionnaire.
Adel #5 through #13: Attacks tajo for not answering the questionnaire properly (even though he did no different from some others).
Adel #16: Summarizes all other answers to questionnaire in one post.
Adel #25: Gives half of own answers to questionnaire.
Adel #31: Gives other half of own answers to questionnaire.
Adel #99: Exhorts everyone to focus on the analysis (making mention of player-specific metas) and find objective scumtells.
Adel #175: Explains the mechanics behind the questionnaire.
Adel #176:

Gives the results of the questionnaire ("I don't have a clue.")

Adel #178: Repeats the summary of all answers to the questionnaire, exhorting everyone to focus on the analysis.
Adel #187:

Defends the questionnaire as a means of starting early discussion

(which it didn't do very well; most of what it did was further tajo hate).

--Seriously? This questionnaire's purpose was to create discussion early on? Whatever happened to the player-specific metas that tie into just about all of the other "objective scumhunting"? That seems like a top priority. Meanwhile there seems to be a direct conflict between #178 and #187.

Adel #36: Votes SpyreX.
Adel #37 through #39: Makes a show of not pushing or explaining the vote on SpyreX.
Adel #46: Unvote/Votes Porkens. Around this time, starts saying SpyreX is spewing garbage to get Artem lynched (possible justification).
Adel #47 through #55: Does stuff other than push Porkens.
Adel #56: Votes tajo and proceeds to give him heck.
Adel #61:

Explains the tajo pressure as "lol, gambit".

Adel #60:

Votes Herodotus based on wagoning Artem and tajo

(positive).
Adel #62:

Explains wagon hopping as meta.

Adel #64: (paraphrase about tajo pressure) "I just said 'lol, gambit'. Why are you still voting me?"
Adel #71 through #75: Pressures Porkens. Does not vote Porkens.
Adel #84 through #87: FoSs SpyreX and Porkens "for real". (watch to see if they get voted any time soon)
Adel #109: Votes Troll. Insists this is not a cryptic vote. Doesn't say why.
Adel #114 and #115: Says the Troll vote is there because he is scum with Vi.

Votes Troll because "he's the more threatening scum player".

(making pairs like this is doomed to fail, plus notice reasons for Vi-scum as clearly indicated earlier)
Adel #119 through #122: Proceeds with SpyreX-scum.
Adel #125 through #142: See above. #136 stands out for reaching at straws.
Adel #143: Switches vote to Vi

after I say I'd like to hear more people talk, but I wouldn't mind a hammer either.

Adel #148: Suggests a deathmatch between himself and Porkens. (false dilemma)
Adel #150-175, with a few gaps: More SpyreX hate. Special note to "Hero cleared me with his dying breath" (#156).
(more stuff that's getting painful to go through)
Adel #182:

Adel gives in and explains the motivation behind the SpyreX pressure: "lol, gambit"

Explains later that two players (Goofy and Ectomancer) came close to falling for it. Doesn't pursue either of them.
Adel #187:

Refuses to explain the early votes D1.

Adel #187: Denies that he is avoiding being hammered because of his meta (compare #62). Continues to insist in later posts that SpyreX just "doesn't get" his play.
Adel #196: Votes Porkens after softclaiming.

--Wordy and obnoxious, but you get the idea. When Adel has provided reasons, they're dubious at best (minus the Herodotus vote, ironically). Even assuming the vs. SpyreX thing today was a drawn-out gambit masquerading as a waste of time, the follow-up to it seems slight (why not vote DGb?).

Adel #77: Namedrop analysis. Mentions that this combined with a player-specific meta would be extremely useful in scumhunting (refer to questionnaire chronology).
Adel #82: Revises namedrop analysis.
Adel #99: Exhorts everyone to focus on the analysis and find objective scumtells.
Adel #102: Brings up the namedrop analysis for Troll.
Adel #103:

Reminds Troll that the only interesting thing Adel remembers is that Adel mentioned tajo a lot and Elmo didn't say much about Porkens

(and that Adel had the most even mention of players, when IIRC it was Ectomancer yesterday).
Adel #104: Reposts namedrop analysis and vote analysis.
Adel #139: Reposts namedrop and vote analyses for no apparent reason. Calls it "analytical scumhunting".
Adel #148:

Reposts namedrop analysis, using it to suggest that Porkens is buddying to SpyreX.

Adel #178: Reposts namedrop analysis and exhorts everyone to study it.

--Notice that the only actual interpretation Adel has done occurred when it helped his buddying case. It's been posted a lot, but not used much. Not that I place much stock in it.

Adel #81: Hasn't bothered with a vote analysis.
Adel #83: Demonstrates being in the process of creating a vote analysis. (Someone, I think Artem, brought up that not having it ready is a point against Adel - and it is IMO)
Adel #96: Lengthens vote analysis.
Adel #99: Exhorts everyone to focus on the analysis and find objective scumtells.
Adel #104: Reposts namedrop analysis and vote analysis.
Adel #139: Reposts the namedrop and vote analyses for no apparent reason. Calls it "analytical scumhunting".
Adel #148:

Reposts the vote analysis and concludes that Adel was set up today as a popular lynch

("I lost two potential allies last night, but four of the five haters are still alive").
Adel #178: Reposts the vote analysis and exhorts everyone to study it for unique patterns.

--Outside the conspiracy theory, the vote analysis hasn't been looked at at all. Again, it's only brought up when Adel wants to patronize us in the Gospel of Objective Scumhunting or when it suits his case.

Adel #111: Refers to an aborted case on SpyreX (of all people), assuming Herodotus-scum and Artem-Town. Had a lot of blanks that came from "skimming" that could be "filled in later".

--This speaks for itself, ne?

Adel #107: Uses meta to deduce that seven of the nine living players could have had motive to kill tajo (taking out Porkens and Ectomancer, but leaving SpyreX in through a typo?). Later picks out Troll + Vi.
Adel #116:

Uses this to clear the Ectomancer+Porkens pairing

(which was never a point of contention).
Adel #118: Repeats that this can be further used as a PoE.
Adel #119: Insists that tajo was probably a meta-based kill.

--Total clears: One pairing, one that hasn't ever been in contention.

How's this, Elmo?

Cut by 964: The "confirmed by Hero" part is just as awful as it was before. I'll decide on my own if your vote on Herodotus was justified, please and thank you.
You can also explain yourself regardless of how many votes you have.

Still haven't had a chance to read s-lully or Porkens, and I'm out of time for the night.

[Ectomancer]

Two things:

Adel has been at L-1 for some time before this soft claim. I'm not going to believe for a second that scumAdel hasn't had MORE than enough time to fabricate a fake claim. Acting as though waiting on town to compel a full claim is scum delaying for time to make one up and adds another stone to the grave completely ignores the amount of time he's been under pressure. He's either got the role, or has had it planned for long before he dropped that soft claim.

I don't know what to think of this...at all. I'm in the same situation with Adel as I usually am, I have no clue what his alignment is, nor any real clue as to what he is about. I've got 2 players making obvTown Adel (1 prior to death) statements, and 2 or 3 players making obvScum Adel comments with the 2 players I consider to be either the most level headed (or most non-committal) in the middle along with myself and its not moving. Something has to tip this thing.

I'm calling for a full claim, including actions if you don't mind. I figure you probably would have worked out that already if fake claiming, but then again, maybe you haven't.

[Adel]

1 shot doc, can cross protect, haven't used action yet.

[Adel]

fos: SpryeX and Porkens

for real.

Hero: assuming that you are town, any final words? How do you thin is most responsible for your lynch? Who should we look most closely at tomorrow? Which of your posts should we pay special heed to tomorrow?

Well, I PMed caf a few hours ago to ask whether I could talk in twilight if I were lynched. He didn't answer, and there doesn't seem to be a rule against it.

Adel is town.
In this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 74#1688274
I breadcrumbed doc pretty heavily (though I'm really a VT.) In 304 and 311, Adel picked up the breadcrumb, and indicated he was going to bus me (presumably to keep me from being NKed.) Not what a scum would do (which is to keep quiet and NK me.) I didn't really want him to do that, since I was aiming to be NKed, but wasn't sure how to say it wasn't what I wanted. So I just acknowledged that in 312 with the following sentences:
"I see; sorry, and please don't worry about it.
Maybe it wasn't worth bringing up.
For now, I can accept your appeal to experience in lieu of reasoning (though its validity would depend on your alignment.)"
and hoped that I could either claim convincingly or that the scum would kill me despite the wagon. I was slightly worried that Adel's bussing (and the possible need for me to claim) could lead to a real doc being outed either by a counterclaim (which would be a stupid move) or by obvious skepticism, so I wanted my breadcrumbing not to have to be followed up by a real claim.

Before you spend tomorrow insulting my plan, let me link you to Camn's evaluation of the idea:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 82#1600082

So... that's one reason for my excess mentions of Adel.

Any questions for me?

Since I'm going to die, I suppose I can post my town reads.

So far, I have
Artem
Adel
as most likely town

Elmo
as somewhat townish

Vi
SpyreX
well, I was serious about the fishing accusation...

PT
also relatively scummy

Korts
Spring
Zorblag
as 'too quiet'

and no good read on Ecto

I haven't read the twilight postings in depth, but Porkens's hammer is also scummy just by virtue of coming out of the blue. No request for a claim, no warning. And that, when I was hinting that I might be a mason! I do not accept that he didn't know the VC.

So, this post is horribly written, but since twilight could end at any time, I'm posting it as-is.

I figure scum figured this out, and I was picked for today's lynch target.

[Adel]

my votes (copied from a spring post)
Day 1:
Vote Spyrex
random day 1 goodness.
Vote Herodotus
i thought I saw links between him and other players that would be worth looking into later (notice that I fingered spring and Porkens.... why are unquestionably voting for me today)
Vote Pop.
I wanted him to interact more in this game. his other games were getting all of his attention.
Vote spyrex
shit stirrer, and lazy townie / random wagon follower check. I am used to players simply following my vote. also, I wasn't buying SPryeX's anti-meta shit.
Vote Porkens
porkens was pinging as scum
Vote Herod
I wanted to determine if he was fakclaiming or not, and i figured that worse-case he would claim, and I would protect him, and most townies would be on his wagon day 2.
Day 2
Vote Zorblag
needed more posting from Zorblag in order to have a chance at determining his alignment.
Vote spyrex
he'd already claimed, so I decided to test it, and hopefully wagon him and get opinions out more people.
Vote Vi
that contradiction screams scum at me.

It wouldn't be bad to hear from him, but this is one of those times when I wouldn't mind an untimely hammer.

It still feels like there are only a few people playing this game. We need more player variety ITT.

unvote, vote: Vi

like it is hinting at a buddy that finishing this wagon with a premature lynch is a good thing, or trying to encourage a townie to act rashly and hammer.

[Adel]

unvote, vote: Herodotus

he bailed on Atrem, and now is wagoning Tajo. I don't think that either of those players are scum.

If Herodotus is scum, I see Elmo as being his most likely buddy.

note that this was just about my

least

sincere vote, but I was easily able to give reasons for it that everyone else thought was acceptable. Before I was the target for a scum-fueled lynch, it was no problem for me to make posts that

appear

uber-townie -- I chose not to.

[Porkens]

If you thought you were going to die last night, why didn't you self-protect?

[Zorblag]

@Adel, does Porkens's apparent interpretation of cross protect (that you can protect yourself) be correct? Pardon Troll's ignorance here but Troll no be entirely sure what be meant.

Troll, I remember you saying that I was disdainful to you at some point in this game. I'd like you to go back and point out where you picked that vibe now. The reason I'm asking is because I consider the paragraph above to be, as another put it, deep fellatio.

If someone else were to describe your play that way would you take offense at it? Troll's guess be yes based on what Troll has seen but Troll no be sure. In any case, Troll would guess that the the disdain towards Troll you be trying to find was shown (and Troll actually called it condescension but so be it) in Post 263 where springlullaby said:

springlullaby wrote:
Zorblag, I'm noting with interest here that you say you agree with some of the reasons indicting Artem's guilt, that you say "you could even vote him", and that you even suspect him of being 'my buddy', all this while voting for me. This strikes me as doubly strange because, beyond the fact that it is unusual, I judge there to be better and stronger reasons to be voting Artem than your vote on me which amounts to 5 days lurkerhunt and a second point which is quite inane.

So here is the question for you. How would you judge my scumminess in comparison to Artem's? Why?

Now now, you are not allowed to turn into saying that I'm blame shifting. I'm asking this because in the event of Artem flipping scum, which I think is going to happen more and more, I see your post here to be soft distancing from Artem by saying that you find him scummy while not voting for him, and at the same time setting a mislynch by implicating me as Artem's scumbuddy. And if Artem flips scum, I want your written words here on why you are not voting him despite saying that he is scummy, and why you are pushing me on what I see as a weaker case.

Post 324 goes gives Troll's reaction at the time.

Troll thinks that saying that Troll's vote has been parked on springlullaby since day one be a misrepresentation as Troll spent the last part of day one voting for populartajo. In any case, if springlullaby be town then Troll be trying to work out what the scum team be likely to be. The rest of this post will likely give some insight into Troll's thoughts.

I don't get why tunnelling in that manner on Adel, someone you've vocally said was town, would make him look more townish to you.

He must really believe her to be scum. It seems a little too dogged to be bus'ing. Though you never know. Seems unlikely.

Troll has serious issues with this statement from DrippingGoofball and tried to give DrippingGoofball a chance to clarify what she be saying. As DrippingGoofball has made it clear that she thinks that Adel be scum it no makes any sense at all for Porkens to be bussing Adel if Porkens be scum. Scum no can bus town. Them can only bus scum.

To Troll this indicates one of three things:

1. DrippingGoofball misused the term bus unintentionally. Troll was hoping that DrippingGoofball would have something to say about the comment so Troll would have a better chance of determining how likely that was. She declined so Troll be left a bit in the dark. If this be the case then Troll no thinks there be much of a tell here one way or another.

2. DrippingGoofball used the term bus correctly and unintentionally. In that case she knows that Adel be scum and were porkens scum him would be bussing. The only way Troll can see this being the case given the stance DrippingGoofball has taken on Adel be for both of them to be scum together.

3. DrippingGoofball used the term bus intentionally. This could be done by DrippingGoofball as scum to get someone who was watching what be said closely and no be voting Adel (one of Ectomancer, Elmo and Troll) to think that case 2 applied and get Adel lynched without having to cast a vote. In theory that could be done if Adel scum or town but it seems more likely to be done if Adel be town.

For those with more experience with DrippingGoofball than Troll has, does she be careful about how the term bus be used? Can anyone point to a time when she misused it in a case like this?

At this point Troll be most leery of DrippingGoofball. She no be engaging like she did in Lynch All Lurkers (it no even be close) and that be the one game Troll has played with her. She was town there and this behavior be distinctly different. Troll no sees an effort to help determine who the scum be and she be avoiding any answers that take more than a line or two to give.

Troll still be trying to figure out Adel. The claim be a safe one to make in this situation and it no would stop Troll from voting him were Troll to decide to do so. Troll no be quite sure what Troll would expect a mini normal to include but a role blocker, a one shot vig and a one shot doc all with town roles no would have been Troll's first guess. Troll no be calling for it but wonders if anyone thinks a mass claim might be valuable to figure out how feasible Adel's claim be.

Troll no has any particular actions that be clearly pro-town from Adel to point to for Lord Gurgi; Troll has many things that Troll might do as town in that situation and some that be more dubious.

Lord Gurgi inherits SpyreX's position so at this point Troll be assuming him be town unless we have an extra night kill at any point.

As Troll has said, Troll likes some of what Elmo has done today but Elmo plays a game that feels similar to Troll's and Troll knows better than to trust Troll just because Troll might look helpful at times. Troll no would put it past Elmo to be scum at all but now that we have talked about populartajo Troll no has any reasons to think that him do be.

Ectomancer has been less a part of the game than Troll thought for much of today until Troll looked back. Him drew attention at the start and then had the stretch of off posts that Troll can live with. Since then him no has come back to establish much of a presence. Troll could see him being town watching what happens or scum not getting in the way.

Vi continues to say things that Troll can evaluate and Troll feels that leaving Vi till a future day be a wiser choice than voting Vi at this time.

Adel, Ectomancer, Elmo, Lord Gurgi and Vi be the five players Troll has the least interest in voting for this day.

springlullaby will likely be offended by Troll now. She comes across as abrasive and hypocrytical and not being that interested in helping sort things out. Troll be leaning more towards it being personality as we go but Troll no finds her particularly likely to be town at this time.

Porkens has failed to provide compelling arguments this day, and has been much more oblivious or glib than him was most of yesterday. The Herodotus vote also concerns Troll.

DrippingGoofball Troll has talked about already in this post.

Unvote, Vote: DrippingGoofball

Until Troll has some more to make Troll think that she be trying to win this game for the town and a reason to think that the bussing comment was an innocent one Troll thinks that DrippingGoofball be our best current bet at hitting scum this day.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh