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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:24 pm

Post by Adel »

SpyreX wrote: get over yourself.

God damn your ego knows no bounds.
Remember when I told you to get fucked? Yea, that was good times. I'll remember it fondly.
lol. do you really want to start replying in-kind to you?



@DGB: SpyreX has already claimed. It is always worth poking a claim to see if it holds up.
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:28 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

SpyreX wrote:Conclusion: The mafia group includes one (and probably two; possibly three) out of (Adel, Elmo, DGB, springlullaby, SpyreX, Vi, Zorblag) .. which basically only leaves out Porkens and Ecto.
Uh? Not only does this make no sense at all, but even if true, I'm not sure it's better than random, in fact it might be worse.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:28 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Yes DGB and I copied that from Adel (who is soo town).

@Adel:

I'll lay off if you do. Deal?
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:29 pm

Post by Elmo »

Different killing groups are almost always of different alignments.
SpyreX definitely pre-declared he would be shooting Artem that night. It seems almost certain he really shot Artem.
Artem is a terrible kill for the mafia. Tajo is a reasonable if odd kill for the mafia. It seems highly likely the mafia didn't shoot Artem.
So SpyreX is either a SK or a 1-shot vig. If he's a SK, claiming 1-shot vig unforced is terrible. He's giving up any more kills, which are a SKs primary weapon, and he's proven a killing ability, which means he'll be instakilled any time we have three dead mafia.

Pound for pound, the evidence overwhelmingly indicates SpyreX telling the truth, and in none of the edge cases where he's lying is lynching him a particularly good idea, as far as I can see. I haven't fully digested your analysis, but I think I get most of it, and while in vacuum I might go for it, I don't see how it can possible overrule the above.

I cannot help but wonder at the sudden level of sheer noise in this thread.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:30 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

SpyreX wrote:Huh... that bolded section is supposed to be quoted. But, you get the drift
Gah!!!
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:32 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Elmo wrote:
springlullaby wrote:
Elmo wrote:Both Spring and Zorblag seem to have dropped off the radar with this Adel/Porkens business.
> >
Please do stop "snipping from the sidelines". It is ineffective and makes you look scummy if you are town.
No, I'm sorry, saying "Spring, you didn't do much yesterday and need to get into the limelight" like I did is not 'sniping from the sidelines'. If you want me to get even more in-your-face about it, I'm happy to do that; I struggle to think of one productive thing you or Zorblag did day 1, and I am absolutely not letting either of you slide by after a short burst of appearing active early in the day. You've been better than Zorblag, but that's no accolade and I am not taking my eye off you for a long while yet.
springlullaby wrote:I've decided, I'm gonna vote Adel in 72 hours if nothing brilliant has come from her by that time which would convince me that I have been too stupid to see the rhyme to what she has been doing.
This is opportunistic as all hell. Seriously, horrible.


Adel, you're playing with fire and I can't disapprove since that's practically one of my hobbies, but
I don't think either you or SpyreX is scum
and I don't know how to defend you or even if I can justify doing so since I only have a weak town read on you and you're good scum. Porkens seems shadier than he did day 1, but if you're town then turning it into a dual between you and someone seems likely to make it no-win. If you're town, work with me; what do you intend, and what should I be doing?

DGB, what do you make of all this?
I STRONGLY agree with the parts I bolded.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:41 pm

Post by SpyreX »

@DGB:

Without using meta, why is Adel obvious town this game?
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:43 pm

Post by Adel »

SpyreX wrote:
I mis read the chart, and read 8 (the number of times you mentioned spring) instead of 21 (the number of times you mentioned Porkens).
And noticed it before or after I brought it up? Keep on keepin on I guess.
note that I am pounding out posts rather quickly. Errors are bound to creep in. It was an honest mistake.
I don't think that you are bad at mafia, which is why I have trouble accepting that you would use your 1-shot vig on Atrem following a Hero-town flip.
Gee that meshes up well with what was said before. Allow me to explain again:

I thought Artem was scum. Before I noticed how bad Hero was fellating you yesterday I was on Artem. I'm not sure what is so mystical considering I said clear out I was shooting Artem in twilight.
I don't see why claiming that re-enforces your claim. Breadcrumbing your fakeclaim day 1 is good scum play, and your breadcrumb didn't actually tie you to your claim. As scum, no down side.
If you have trouble accepting that people are going to play roles different and I see enough gain in shooting someone I think is scum / trying to draw a NK for it early game versus waiting: get over yourself.
as a 1-shot vig, shooting night 1 is sub-optimal to waiting until a later night. This is actually one of the few clear cases where one style of play is inferior. It isn't a matter of "style" -- simply a matter of accuracy and effectiveness.
compare your posts in that game with your posts in this game. In that game, during day 1, you seemed a lot less invested than in this game, and your posts were much shorter on average. Your posting behavior (expressed as words/post) in that game does not align with your posting behavior in this game.
I'm not talking about the posts. I'm talking about the actions.
way to go, directly ignoring what I typed again. Yes, you were a 1-shot vig in that game, and you shot N1. Looking at another metric of behavior, beyond the simplistic action, your style of play doesn't match like I would expect it to if you had the same role.
But, yes, comparing post quality when a mafia lept all over himself to get hung is a fair comparison.

And this has nothing to do with the fact you say "Yes, it matches his meta but disregard that lynch hoo"
You've claimed that you thought Atrem was scum making obvious mistakes, and Hero was lynched hella fast, so I do think it might be a fair basis of comparison.
the danger of you being town. I don't tunnel. I'm taking the case against you to it's logical conclusion, especially as you continue to make points that don't add up, and so long as you continue to change your story, and fail to answer my questions. In the meantime, I'm attempting to identify who your partners are.
Hurf hurf. What doesn't add up? I'm talking in the normal sense not the "I'm bad at mafia because I dont play like you' sense. As for changing my story ASIDE from laying out I was 1-shot what have I changed?
isn't that enough? Your claim that you wanted to draw the NK doesn't explain why you changed your claim without the pressure of votes.
Also, I love "You may be town but I'm looking for your partners"
mis-quote.
if I get lynched, and you are town, then it is probably game over for the town.
That works both ways. I swear to God if I get lynched and they don't powerlynch you I will probably explode.
Why aren't you suspicious of Porkens again? What logic lead you to conclude that Him and Ecto can't be town together?
... The hell about them being town together? I do NOT think they are scum together because of Porkens reaction to Ecto's problems day 1. Too high risk / low reward. Thats the big reason why I'm not "suspicious" of Porkens.
why couldn't that be scum distancing?


Why aren't you suspicious of Porkens? (4th try?)
The hell does that matter though? I've got one vote. Its on you. Any opinions I have on other players can sit until this is dealt with.
so you want me lynched before any other players are looked into?
especially Porkens

no, I data dumped. In our game together as partners in Polygamist, I did a deep meta on FL, and used my meta knowledge of Sklitzer and Shy Guy (Guardian) to ensure our victory -- which you've given me props for on your wiki page an in the "are you a good player" thread.
Lets look at these:
Wiki wrote:I know, somehow, I was instrumental to the town actually pulling this out. However, I'm still not sure what I did. The mess around the hammer hurt my head - how do you not lynch someone who says they are scum? However, my partner was liquid awesome. A lot of fun all the way through. I think, if I ever do a Poly, I am going to push AGAINST the massclaim early even harder.
Good player wrote:Adel - Adel was my partner in one of my first games and I really like the play. Aggressive without being tunneled. Its good stuff.
I'm pretty sure (as I said it) that the part I was talking about was after I posted some vote stuff and you called Nameless out as scum. Not anything to do with meta.

*As an aside: I love the fact you went to my wiki and started some hunt about me lying about meta when on my wiki it says my feelings about meta. Selective analysis hooo!
wiki pages are primarily used for bragging and player meta creation. You've built a meta that states that you "play for fun" rather than "playing to win" which is used to excuse you sub-optimal play, and you've built a meta of hating meta (albeit full of exceptions exceptions weasel words) so that you can ignore that part of play. Clever.
does this explain why you aren't answering my questions?
What other questions do you have? Go ahead and line em up.
read my freaking posts, and look for question marks.
please play to win.
OHH GOD MY THINKING YOU ARE SCUM MEANS I AM NO LONGER PLAYING TO WIN ALAS I AM DEFEATED

God damn your ego knows no bounds.
stay classy.
@SpyreX: if you are town, why do you think the mafia failed to jump all over your failings like I have?
The honest answer? The mafia (i.e. your partners) know that you're not going to get me lynched on space-voodoo theories and want nothing to do with tying themselves to you in this boat that, one way or another, is going down.
wouldn't that same behavior be better explained if they aren't my partners and are just sitting back and enjoying a townie fight?
The me-to-you answer: My "failings"? Remember when I told you to get fucked? Yea, that was good times. I'll remember it fondly.
if you are town, your failings include:
1. using your one shot N1
2. claiming without pressure
3. changing your claim without pressure
those should be enough reason for any objective player to express skepticism. Those failings combined with your attack on me (with re-enforcements!) is why I counter attacked.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:48 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

SpyreX wrote:@DGB:

Without using meta, why is Adel obvious town this game?
The level of effort and careless agressivity is not consistent with being scum.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:55 pm

Post by Adel »

Elmo wrote:SpyreX definitely pre-declared he would be shooting Artem that night. It seems almost certain he really shot Artem.
I agree
Artem is a terrible kill for the mafia.

I don't agree with this. He was a power role, and he was suspicious of certain players, and his wagon day 1 got busted. He wasn't on the Hero wagon.
Tajo is a reasonable if odd kill for the mafia. It seems highly likely the mafia didn't shoot Artem.
note how my attempt to try to look into that oddness got shouted down. We don't know how he was killed-- it might not be from a directed kill. RB's are often used to "balance" out a high number of power roles.
So SpyreX is either a SK or a 1-shot vig. If he's a SK, claiming 1-shot vig unforced is terrible.
I agree. It is more horrible than a 1-shot vig using his shot N1, but I see them as being in the same spectrum. The Sk always has a low probability of winning, except for the occasional investigation immune & BP SK that occasionally is found in games.
He's giving up any more kills, which are a SKs primary weapon, and he's proven a killing ability, which means he'll be instakilled any time we have three dead mafia.
true... which is why I started to favor the mafia hypothesis over the SK hypothesis.
Pound for pound, the evidence overwhelmingly indicates SpyreX telling the truth, and in none of the edge cases where he's lying is lynching him a particularly good idea, as far as I can see. I haven't fully digested your analysis, but I think I get most of it, and while in vacuum I might go for it, I don't see how it can possible overrule the above.

I cannot help but wonder at the sudden level of sheer noise in this thread.
where is the noise coming from? .. better question, what points are being drowned out?
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:56 pm

Post by Elmo »

Adel, vig is a testable claim. Fakeclaiming vig is bad precisely because mafia don't have that ability. So I seriously doubt he would fake breadcrumb vig killing Artem and then it just so happened that Artem got shot that night.

Claiming without pressure is fine here, it clears him from scrutiny and gets as info public early. The effect of clearing an extra townie night 1 and maybe killing a scumbag (from his point of view) is a decent play. It's not what I'd do, but it's not clearly inferior. And he didn't change his claim, he claimed "vig" and deliberately left it ambiguous whether he was limited or not; I suspected he was 1-shot at the time. I think suspecting Artem was wrong, but I can 100% believe that he would genuinely feel Artem was scummy, and I said as much yesterday; these OMGUS fights have a life of their own.
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:56 pm

Post by Adel »

SpyreX wrote:Yes DGB and I copied that from Adel (who is soo town).

@Adel:

I'll lay off if you do. Deal?
not yet. You've claimed, so I'm going to continue poking you until I am convinced of your alignment.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:03 pm

Post by Adel »

Elmo wrote:Adel, vig is a testable claim.
right, testable by directing his kill.

1-shot vig is an untestable claim.
which is Fakeclaiming vig is bad precisely because mafia don't have that ability. So I seriously doubt he would fake breadcrumb vig killing Artem and then it just so happened that Artem got shot that night.
unless the mafia feared a tracker... and since there was a RB I'm sure they were told that they had to specifically state which of their members had to send in the kill.
Claiming without pressure is fine here, it clears him from scrutiny and gets as info public early. The effect of clearing an extra townie night 1 and maybe killing a scumbag (from his point of view) is a decent play. It's not what I'd do, but it's not clearly inferior.
seriously? -- it doesn't yield a cleared townie! Worse case: he was tracked to his target (who wouldn't be watched) and if he were tracked
then
he would be "confirmed".
And he didn't change his claim, he claimed "vig" and deliberately left it ambiguous whether he was limited or not; I suspected he was 1-shot at the time. I think suspecting Artem was wrong, but I can 100% believe that he would genuinely feel Artem was scummy, and I said as much yesterday; these OMGUS fights have a life of their own.
I'm sorry, but his play makes better sense to me as a scum gambit (inspired!) than as vig play (thanks for bringing us closer to lylo)
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:04 pm

Post by Elmo »

If the mafia killed Artem, then a Vig/SK killed Tajo. If it's a vig, I think it's fairly obvious they should be counter-claiming right now considering the likely numbers. If it's a SK, then SpyreX is doomed because the SK will kill again tonight and we'll lynch him for it.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:06 pm

Post by Adel »

Elmo wrote:If the mafia killed Artem, then a Vig/SK killed Tajo. If it's a vig, I think it's fairly obvious they should be counter-claiming right now considering the likely numbers. If it's a SK, then SpyreX is doomed because the SK will kill again tonight and we'll lynch him for it.
that actually does make it testable. I stand corrected.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:11 pm

Post by SpyreX »

note that I am pounding out posts rather quickly. Errors are bound to creep in. It was an honest mistake.
If its an honest mistake sure - but does that mean you're just fishing for reasons for me to be scum (and now tied to Porkens) for it?
I don't see why claiming that re-enforces your claim. Breadcrumbing your fakeclaim day 1 is good scum play, and your breadcrumb didn't actually tie you to your claim. As scum, no down side.
Sans the fact that I would be banking on there being no vig if I was scum.
If I am SK, by saying I am one-shot I have eliminated my ability to kill OR just screwed myself.

So, that only reinforces my claim when combined with the next day. Sure, in and of itself it means nothing.
as a 1-shot vig, shooting night 1 is sub-optimal to waiting until a later night. This is actually one of the few clear cases where one style of play is inferior. It isn't a matter of "style" -- simply a matter of accuracy and effectiveness.
Then I am inferior. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. So, yea, its a matter of "style" when I see definite advantages
way to go, directly ignoring what I typed again. Yes, you were a 1-shot vig in that game, and you shot N1. Looking at another metric of behavior, beyond the simplistic action, your style of play doesn't match like I would expect it to if you had the same role. to doing it (not the least of the cheers and huge swing if I had hit scum).
And I said the actions matched. Of course the posts didn't because, in that game, a scum all but fell over themselves getting lynched day 1. There was no need for large posts because the target was decided.

So, comparing my actions considering the roles = sure on a meta level.
However, comparing my posts considering how different the game has went = blah.

How is that ignoring what you said?
You've claimed that you thought Atrem was scum making obvious mistakes, and Hero was lynched hella fast, so I do think it might be a fair basis of comparison.
Yep. And I shot him for it.
And Hero's connection to you still makes no sense and I'm not even the least bit sorry for that lynch.
How that compares to the other game where mafiaplayer exploded and then went "I'm some kind of death miller" after trying to get me modkilled... I jsut dont know

(the above answers are classic examples of why meta is retarded)
isn't that enough? Your claim that you wanted to draw the NK doesn't explain why you changed your claim without the pressure of votes.
The shitstorm and absolute distaste I have for the "you are bad at mafia" clouds the judgment. And it was becoming apparent that I was going to be asked soon for a kill which I couldn't produce. I nipped that in the bud.
mis-quote.
Yea, beacause it wasn't quoted? I'll give the quote if you'd like:
the danger of you being town. I don't tunnel. I'm taking the case against you to it's logical conclusion, especially as you continue to make points that don't add up, and so long as you continue to change your story, and fail to answer my questions. In the meantime, I'm attempting to identify who your partners are.
So, I guess mine is a misquote. "You may be town, but I'm looking for your partners and not voting for you any more despite my case on you being scum"
why couldn't that be scum distancing?

Why aren't you suspicious of Porkens? (4th try?)
Not liking my answer doesn't mean its not an answer but we'll go again:

Porken's response to Ecto feels like a town response. It doesn't make sense for it to be either a bus or a Porkens/scum Ecto/town move because of the potential for instantaneous blowback + minimal gain.
so you want me lynched before any other players are looked into? especially Porkens
Look into them. I'm not stopping you. But, yes. Your lynch I am more than confident is a scum lynch so there ya go.
wiki pages are primarily used for bragging and player meta creation. You've built a meta that states that you "play for fun" rather than "playing to win" which is used to excuse you sub-optimal play, and you've built a meta of hating meta (albeit full of exceptions exceptions weasel words) so that you can ignore that part of play. Clever.
..what? Where/how/what the hell do you get that I dont "play to win" from?

As for all these exceptions: go for it. Show em. Show that I am secretly all about the meta and this is all an elaborate ruse.

For bonus points: show how this has anything to do with anything at hand.
read my freaking posts, and look for question marks.
No. I think I've answered any pertinent questions. If I've missed some and am going to continue to miss them due to some secret scum machinations bringing them into light in a concise manner benefits you and makes me look bad, no?

Whereas just going over and over he isn't answering questions well...
wouldn't that same behavior be better explained if they aren't my partners and are just sitting back and enjoying a townie fight?
A possibility if you're play was only slightly scummy. I don't see it as such.
if you are town, your failings include:
1. using your one shot N1
2. claiming without pressure
3. changing your claim without pressure
1.) I did it. I'd do it again. I see enough reason for it.
2.) Claiming without pressure makes sense when I am a 1-shot TRYING to get killed.
3.) This is a "failing" because, yes, I got hot-under-the collar with your hom'in.

So, 1 & 2 I'd do again and again. 3 was a mistake, sure.

And if objective players aren't expressing skepticism and thats the huge issue - why are you focusing on me? Why aren't you asking THEM why they didn't?

Preview edit:
not yet. You've claimed, so I'm going to continue poking you until I am convinced of your alignment.
God in heaven do you really think thats what I was talking about? I was talking about the degrading into incivility. I'm not going to stop pushing on your lynch.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:13 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I don't agree with this. He was a power role, and he was suspicious of certain players, and his wagon day 1 got busted. He wasn't on the Hero wagon.
Soo... the mafia knew they were hitting a power role when they did it?

And someone who almost got lynched is a good shot?

Especially one who said they "made their stance clear even without the vote" on the wagon? That you, yourself, made mention of?
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:16 pm

Post by SpyreX »

that actually does make it testable. I stand corrected.
Damnit all I'm pretty sure I said just that and sure didn't get that response.

GOODDDD
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:18 pm

Post by Elmo »

If it were full vig, it's more troublesome but I'd still believe it. I can't see it as good play for mafia. If the other kill's a vig, you get shot. If it's a SK, you'll still probably get shot since SK is anti-mafia at this point due to fear of endgaming; if not, you'll be dying as soon as the SK dies, and you need to kill the SK to win.

This is separate from fake-breadcrumbing vig. The thing is mafia from day 1, looking forward, would never think of fakeclaiming vig, I think. You would be immediately called on to prove your killing ability by having a kill directed, and "lul i got roleblocked" would get you lynched the majority of the time.

But yeah, he claimed 1-shot. If he's lying, any third party that killed last night should kill again tonight, and we'll kill him tomorrow... I don't see a way 'round that for a mafia SpyreX.
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:21 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Ohh yea if there is a full vig that didn't shoot that shoots tonight / an SK that was blocked or what have you I know I'm full well boned.

However, lynching Adel and having a scum flip SHOULD help some.
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:25 pm

Post by Adel »

@SpyreX you killed a townie in that game as well.

Moving forward, will you at least accept that killing N1 is poor play? Reducing the number of townies left (which will happen at least 70% of the time) just does not help the town win.
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:28 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

I'm very annoyed with Spyrextown and Adeltown because they are distracting everyone from a baconlicious Porkens lynch.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:33 pm

Post by Adel »

SpyreX wrote:Ohh yea if there is a full vig that didn't shoot that shoots tonight / an SK that was blocked or what have you I know I'm full well boned.

However, lynching Adel and having a scum flip SHOULD help some.
especially since when I flip town you aren't going to be held accountable so long as there is only 1 kill tonight.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:33 pm

Post by Elmo »

DGB, third time, why Porkens? (I realise it's easy to lose stuff in the textwalls, though.)
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:45 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Elmo wrote:DGB, third time, why Porkens? (I realise it's easy to lose stuff in the textwalls, though.)
It could be s-lullaby, too. Or Ectomancer. Can you think of a better candidate? Vi?

I've got you, Spyrex and Adel pegged as town. I know I'm town, and I'd miss Zorbalg regardless of alignment.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

"Metadiving DGB is like playing Roblox" - T3
"She's sort of like a quantum computer, her reads exist in multiple states at once. u have to take into account the other dimensions." - Morning Tweet

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