Mini 792 - Tofu Mafia. Game over!

[Ectomancer]

I've never seen this many people involved in a rapid fire twilight session.

Can we track when the last time people logged in? Like to see if they avoid this? I know this would notify them, but at least it would force them to talk about this if they login and try to dodge it.

[SpyreX]

Psh, this is the best part of the game. Its like unwrapping the present under the tree.

[Porkens]

It doesn't, really. But I run on a dumber plane than most of you; Adel is on Hero's wagon and Artem isn't.

in the South people call this "slow-talking" -- getting people to underestimate your intelligence so that you can take advantage of their misconception.

In the PNW we call it patronizing.

[Adel]

as far as I know, we can only check when the last time was they posted. I hate to duck out, but I have to go now. <3 this exchange.

We were just comming together and starting some good communal analytical scumhunting. If the town can return to that tomorrow, I think that we will win, regardless of who dies tonight.

Focus on what is

objectively

present, identify outliers and information that doesn't make sense, and compare things that stand out to other games in each player's meta.

Other variables to look at: word count, post count to word count ration, average % of each player's post that is made up of quotes.. stufff like that that you can actually quantify. Limit analysis to stufff that happneded

before

the analytical scumhunting started.. that way scum won't be able to hide their behavior. Don't give replacements a free pass. Also look for players who follow other player's votes without mentioning that player much.

[Ectomancer]

It doesn't, really. But I run on a dumber plane than most of you; Adel is on Hero's wagon and Artem isn't.

in the South people call this "slow-talking" -- getting people to underestimate your intelligence so that you can take advantage of their misconception.

In the PNW we call it patronizing.

Phantom Fish

A man was stopped by a game-warden in Northern Algonquin Park recently with two buckets of fish leaving a lake well known for its fishing. The game warden asked the man, "Do you have a license to catch those fish?" The man replied to the game warden, "No, sir. These are my pet fish." "Pet fish?!" the warden replied. "Yes, sir. Every night I take these here fish down to the lake and let them swim around for a while. I whistle and they jump back into their buckets, and I take em home." "That's a bunch of hooey! Fish can't do that!" The man looked at the game warden for a moment, and then said, "Here, I'll show you. It really works." "O.K. I've GOT to see this!" The game warden was curious. The man poured the fish in to the river and stood and waited. After several minutes, the game warden turned to the man and said, "Well?" "Well, what?" the man responded. "When are you going to call them back?" the game warden prompted. "Call who back?" the man asked. "The FISH." "What fish?" the man asked. (Contributed by Frank Worm)

[Ectomancer]

Well alrighty then. G'night scummers

[Herodotus]

fos: SpryeX and Porkens

for real.

Hero: assuming that you are town, any final words? How do you thin is most responsible for your lynch? Who should we look most closely at tomorrow? Which of your posts should we pay special heed to tomorrow?

Well, I PMed caf a few hours ago to ask whether I could talk in twilight if I were lynched. He didn't answer, and there doesn't seem to be a rule against it.

Adel is town.
In this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 74#1688274
I breadcrumbed doc pretty heavily (though I'm really a VT.) In 304 and 311, Adel picked up the breadcrumb, and indicated he was going to bus me (presumably to keep me from being NKed.) Not what a scum would do (which is to keep quiet and NK me.) I didn't really want him to do that, since I was aiming to be NKed, but wasn't sure how to say it wasn't what I wanted. So I just acknowledged that in 312 with the following sentences:
"I see; sorry, and please don't worry about it.
Maybe it wasn't worth bringing up.
For now, I can accept your appeal to experience in lieu of reasoning (though its validity would depend on your alignment.)"
and hoped that I could either claim convincingly or that the scum would kill me despite the wagon. I was slightly worried that Adel's bussing (and the possible need for me to claim) could lead to a real doc being outed either by a counterclaim (which would be a stupid move) or by obvious skepticism, so I wanted my breadcrumbing not to have to be followed up by a real claim.

Before you spend tomorrow insulting my plan, let me link you to Camn's evaluation of the idea:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 82#1600082

So... that's one reason for my excess mentions of Adel.

Any questions for me?

Since I'm going to die, I suppose I can post my town reads.

So far, I have
Artem
Adel
as most likely town

Elmo
as somewhat townish

Vi
SpyreX
well, I was serious about the fishing accusation...

PT
also relatively scummy

Korts
Spring
Zorblag
as 'too quiet'

and no good read on Ecto

I haven't read the twilight postings in depth, but Porkens's hammer is also scummy just by virtue of coming out of the blue. No request for a claim, no warning. And that, when I was hinting that I might be a mason! I do not accept that he didn't know the VC.

So, this post is horribly written, but since twilight could end at any time, I'm posting it as-is.

[Porkens]

I'm just gunna look stupid this game, I guess.

I see neither a breadcrumb nor Adel picking up on one.

[Herodotus]

@father of history- while I think that you were correct about that one thing you pointed out about Vi,

I don't think that your post

pointing out that what he was pointing out probably isn't pro-town,

probably also isn't pro-town

.

I assumed the double-negative was intentional.

[springlullaby]

Hmm. This is interesting. I'm not going to doubt that town claim since it would be a pointless move from you, so as a question to a confirmed town, Herodotus, why do you think Artem is town because I really think he is scum.

[Porkens]

So..."I think your post probably is pro-town?"

You guys have more points in Bluff than I do if that's really what the exchange means.

[Herodotus]

I'm just gunna look stupid this game, I guess.

I see neither a breadcrumb nor Adel picking up on one.

An improper capital "D" -- probably the first spelling error I've made on the site outside of maybe marathon games
"Don't worry, you might not die" -- because you might be protected

So, I don't really know with 100% certainty that Adel was really responding to these as I thought he was, nor that his motivations weren't scum-based. It just seemed that way.
Also, I hope Adel doesn't mind my pointing this out; it works against his ostensible plan to look suspicious enough to avoid the NK. But if I didn't say something, it might have been for nothing.

[Herodotus]

So..."I think your post probably is pro-town?"

You guys have more points in Bluff than I do if that's really what the exchange means.

Or I am delusional...

Hmm. This is interesting. I'm not going to doubt that town claim since it would be a pointless move from you, so as a question to a confirmed town, Herodotus, why do you think Artem is town because I really think he is scum.

And you shouldn't. If I were scum, I'd be taking a major risk of leaving a trail to my scumbuddies.
Partly gut feeling. Also I might be overcompensating for earlier when I thought he was scum. Yeah, "most likely town" might be overdoing it. But like I said, he has done nothing scummy since I unvoted him, and some of my reasons for suspecting him were inconclusive. Adel's defense was also meaningful to me, considering my read on him. Artem's points on Porkens are also valid.

The rest of the players give me either a null or a townie read. If you want me to go into detail about any of them, let me know. Otherwise, I'm not planning on town-hunting.

I like this paragraph, too. I still feel that this:

and Hero

still

hasn't picked up an offensive weapon

was untrue, but *meh*.

[Herodotus]

I think attacking the data because of a point you are making utilizing that data is valid. I also am well aware of being able to create charts that can say what you want it to say. (Just pick the right chart/data set) That makes the "It was to do one thing and one thing only" statement up for debate as well.

Not to mention manipulating the data before it is gathered. I can see a scum telling their buddies to try to mention all players relatively equally so that this type of analysis would get a townie lynched.

[SpyreX]

How's that work though? If you ARE town (which I'm not buying until I see a flip) how could them normalizing change the fact your results are skewed.

[Herodotus]

How's that work though? If you ARE town (which I'm not buying until I see a flip) how could them normalizing change the fact your results are skewed.

Any set of data will contain anomalies. Sure, you wouldn't have known in advance which players would be skewed, but the presence of a player who is either skewed or curiously unskewed is likely, especially when you can (a) choose when to collect the data, and (b) suggest that your scumbuddies provoke a somewhat skewed player into becoming more skewed.

Please understand that I am NOT saying that you necessarily did this. It will be up to the survivors to make that call. I'm in the enviable position of getting to spew all my thoughts with no responsibility for judging whether they are correct.

[Herodotus]

Herod;

In that regard, I'm going to disappoint him. I just hope it doesn't lead to a mislynch in LYLO (I'm guessing this is the current game-plan of the scum, assuming Elmo is town.)

and

Do you think the scum are going to even consider NKing me?

This has been mentioned already but it warrents another: What?
AND an """rolefishing""" backpeddle in 477?

unvote, vote: herodotus

What does this even mean? What warrants a "what?" And I did not backpedal on the rolefishing issue.

[Korts]

For fuckssake. I'm sorry, I really can't keep up with this collective verbal diarrhea.

mod: please replace me.

[Vi]

Well this turned into a circus.

I'm saving my commentary for the next game Day. If I had an actual bullet, I wouldn't tell you about it; and the scum will be able to act on my thoughts before the Town will.

[springlullaby]

Adel, could you explain your last spreadsheet please. I thought it was votes correlation but it apparently is not.

[Zorblag]

That lynching be on the sudden side. Troll thinks that the bullet game be more likely to help the scum than the town so Troll will decline to participate in it. Troll no would have voted Herodotus at this point but Troll no had a particularly town read on him and no objects to the votes other than the sudden nature of the last couple. Despite what has been said about not realizing how close to lynch Herodotus was it be interesting to note that when Porkens put Artem at his 5th vote back in post 273, despite the fact that him was in a hurry at the time him was able to identify the fact that him was putting Artem at L-2.

@ Elmo, Troll sticks by Troll's statement that populartajo was tunneling on Herodotus. Him said him had looked at everyone and mentioned all the names but that no means that him has been considering anyone other than Herodotus as scum since Herodotus caught his eye back in posts 31 and 32. The reasons that him was giving for being suspicious of Herodotus were far from overwhelming to the point of making everyone else's actions pale in comparison which be Troll's take on his stance.

Troll no accused Elmo of the same position because, although Elmo was voting for Herodotus and pushing for his lynch, him was able to identify others as suspicious and there were clear indications that the actions of all were at least being considered. It actually be a bit surprising to Troll that populartajo's play seems to have done nothing to make Elmo suspicious if Troll be reading the color coding in post 412 correctly.

@ Everyone, up till now Troll would say that Troll has played an fairly unimpressive game. It no has been intentional but looking back that be how Troll sees it. It has however given Troll a chance to see how people react to it. Troll be pretty pleased with Korts and Vi in this regard. Troll no objects to the points them have raised and Troll has tried to address them. Them had the chance to push a case against Troll harder but appeared to be interested in seeing how Troll would continue to play. Troll no thinks that Troll has dropped off the map for either which be as it should but them have been looking at the game with a reasonable amount of attention.

Troll no actually objects to springlullaby's trouble with Troll either. Troll has pushed a case on her and the case still be one Troll likes (her game no has given much information, has been reactive and and has had plenty of chances to be opportunistic) but the reaction to Troll seems like pretty natural play from someone who be under some pressure.

Troll actually dislikes Artem's stated reason for thinking that Troll likely be town.

I've already given my stance on three of those. Troll strikes me as pro-town. I like that he sticks to his guns when challenged about his points/playstyle.

Troll likes to think that this be true but Troll no sees that it should be any indication of alignment in others when them do something along these lines. Further, Troll tossed out some mild, largely unexplained objections in the direction of things that Artem had said somewhat early in the game and this passed by without comment (at least from Artem.) Troll was prepared to follow through with bringing up particulars but this no proved necessary. On the whole, Artem's take on Troll no be what Troll expects.

Troll has talked about Troll's thoughts on populartajo's reactions to Troll. Them boil down to it being worse in Troll's opinion to find Troll more likely to be scum than most in the game because Troll no be obv town to him but still more likely to be town than scum. Troll objected when Troll was accused of fence sitting earlier in the game but Troll will raise the same objection here about populartajo. Troll would actually have been much more comfortable if populartajo was simply able to decide that Troll was acting scummy.

Troll likes Elmo's reaction to Troll less than those of Vi and Korts for some reason. Troll still be trying to pin down exactly why.

For most others, if them have expressed an opinion of Troll it has been in as an answer to Elmo's questions about general feelings for Herodotus, Korts, springlullaby and Troll. Most of the responses seemed to be that Troll was mildly or somewhat scummy. These felt appropriate. As Troll says, Troll has played an unimpressive game. Those who no have taken a stance on Troll at all Troll probably finds more suspicious than not if only because of the way Troll would be thinking of using someone who played like Troll had down the line were Troll scum. It be the sort of play that makes Troll think that the player can be used later on in the game to mislynch when it be needed if them be left to their own devices for now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[caf19]

Apologies for the late lock; I went away (brief trip to London) yesterday, and wasn't really expecting all hell to break loose in the meantime.

For future reference, there are no rules against anyone talking in twilight. Subsequent twilights will hopefully be shorter than this one though.

Lynch scene next post.

[caf19]

Votecount

Herodotus (7): Elmo, populartajo, Vi, Adel, Ectomancer, SpyreX, Porkens
populartajo (1): Zorblag
Artem (1): springlullaby
SpyreX (1): Herodotus

Not voting

Korts
Artem

You swiftly drag Herodotus to the gallows and lynch him. Now the father of history is history himself...

Herodotus,

townie

, lynched day 1

Night 1 begins. You have 72 hours; PM any night actions before 7pm BST on Friday, or they will not be counted.

[caf19]

DrippingGoofball replaces Korts. Thanks DGB!

[caf19]

You awake from your respective slumbers to find two dead bodies lying around town.

populartajo,

townie

, died Night 1
Artem,

town roleblocker

, died Night 1

It is now Day 2. Autodeadline for 27 days from now (July 2 at 8pm BST).

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.