Mini 792 - Tofu Mafia. Game over!

[Elmo]

Ecto makes a good point.

Herod, also, please detail exactly what happened to shift your opinion off Artem. And please explain why you're now voting SpyreX given that if one of of {SpyreX, Artem} is scum, then the other seems likelier town from the interactions.

[SpyreX]

1.) I would know better.
2.) My mentions of Adel probably do not support that.
3.) And this is the reason why I asked. Mentioning another player a lot but deciding they are not fos- or vote-worthy is probably a mason tell. Are Adel and I masons? There is no way I'm going to answer that.

But you are role-fishing.

unvote
vote: SpyreX
I'll have to re-check, but I think I'd also be equally inclined to lynch Vi.

1.) Ohh I wouldn't do that could work, but we'll get to it.
2.) The sheer volume of connect overlaps any positive or negative connontations.
3.) The only town-town scenario where it would make sense to mention another player THAT MUCH is if you were, in fact, masons. Thats not role-fishing as much as common sense.

But, hey, who am I to argue when you setup a "zomg trap sprung" scenario that makes no sense.

Except to do this:

Unvote, Vote Herod

Additionally:

1.) Why are you mentioning Adel so much?
2.) Why was your instinctive response to my bringing this up to try and downplay the numbers like its going to change anything?

I think a full analysis could be useful, but there are issues like nicknames:
For me, add 3 for "PT", 5 for "tajo" and 1 for "Tajo" meaning populartajo. And 6 for "SL" meaning springlullaby. There may be others, but I don't recall them.
Another issue is that we've used pronouns, too.

That paragraph alone has two more "namedrops" than would be necessary with pronouns. If every pronoun I've used or quoted was counted for the player it referenced, I think you'd find at least Porkens, Korts, Artem, and SpyreX would be substantially higher.
Aside from that, a lot of the "namedrops" were either quote tags or within quoted or requoted text -- I've been asked about Adel a lot, including a couple of those tortured paragraphs.

Also, "Troll" should add 2 to Zorblag from me.

Spyrex, I'm guessing you'll want to amend those counts to include more nicknames?

Also, the data set does not include (or includes by some players but not by others) nicknames, as I mentioned in 431 and 434. I've done my own numbers and two others so far;

if SpyreX's original counts were correct

, these updates based on nicknames, prior to SpyreX 427, are also correct:

Considering, since its happened, you've spent a lot of energy trying to downplay how much you've mentioned Adel's name and are voting me now under some kind of rolefishing (which is the only damn explanation of you being both town) instead of, ohh, explaining it yourself maybe this'll spark some interest.

Or, well, get you hung. Thats cool too.

[Herodotus]

Ecto makes a good point.

Herod, also, please detail exactly what happened to shift your opinion off Artem. And please explain why you're now voting SpyreX given that if one of of {SpyreX, Artem} is scum, then the other seems likelier town from the interactions.

I unvoted Artem so that he would not be forced to claim prematurely.
I changed my mind later, over time, about how suspicious I found him based on reconsidering what he said and other players being more suspicious.
I think I would agree that if one of them is scum, it is unlikely that the other is; I'm considering that a point in Artem's favor.

3.) The only town-town scenario where it would make sense to mention another player THAT MUCH is if you were, in fact, masons. Thats not role-fishing as much as common sense.

It wasn't role fishing for you to mention the idea of masons. It was role-fishing to push the issue of my mentioning Adel's name often. You found a possible pro-town role tell, and made a big deal of it.

1.) Why are you mentioning Adel so much?
2.) Why was your instinctive response to my bringing this up to try and downplay the numbers like its going to change anything?

1.) What you have is a sequence of individual events. I cannot fully answer why I created a pattern of which I was unaware; I can answer for specific instances, and I can also give you some broad, general factors that led to the pattern.
One reason I've put a lot of thought into things Adel has said is because I understand that he is probably the top scum-finder in this game. Consequently, if I decided he was town, I'd probably put a lot of trust in his analysis, and I wanted to see where his mysteriousness was going.
Two other reasons for the quantity of namedrops are that he has asked me several questions, and because I've been asked about him many times.
2.) I discussed nicknames in order to make your counts more accurate, and pronouns in order to provide more perspective on the effective precision of the counts.

[Artem]

I've been asking Adel to come out with her analysis for at least 10(?) pages.

As well as a handful other players. How is your asking any different?

@Adel:

You said that there was no scum-driven competing wagon to my wagon. Do you think the wagon on you is/was a scum-driven attempt to derail Hero's wagon?

Somebody mentioned that you like long posts. When I first saw that, I thought that you like to post long posts, which has not been the case so far? Do you only like to read long posts, or was that somebody wrong (link)? Or what?

Answer plox.

@Ecto:

You congratulated Adel in the game he cited. Here, you're saying that graphs and charts rarely help you find scum. Why does this raise an inconsistency flag for me?

@Spring:

...will elaborate later

Guess what? It's later.

@Hero:

Ditto SpyreX's question 2) about downplaying the importance of numbers.

2.) I discussed nicknames in order to make your counts more accurate, and pronouns in order to provide more perspective on the effective precision of the counts.

I don't think this answers it well. We don't need 100% accurate counts to get a rough idea of who's talking about whom and how much.

If players A and B are both town, and player A had said player B needs to die, "PLZ K THX", then as scum, I'd try to keep both players A and B alive. As things stand right now, unless you're scum, then we have a problem, which is that you're liable to give the scum the extra vote on me they could use later, particularly in LYLO. Of course, the same could be said for a lot of people, but you're the one I'm most worried about, since PT is much more likely scum than you are.

Day 1 opinions will almost certainly change over the course of the game. Scum who's banking on them is not bright scum.

I unvoted Artem so that he would not be forced to claim prematurely.

I don't claim prematurely, unless I'm a miller / self-watcher or any other role that is inherent to my existence rather than action. In fact, I've spent a lot of energy in a lot of games arguing against Day 1 L-1 claims, because I think they are largely pointless.

Sure, you don't know that unless you've read the games I've been in, but if the sole reason for your unvote is a claim concern, then why have you not pursued any other points that you find suspicious against me? You're saying that over time you changed your mind about how suspicious I am, but you have not pushed a single point against me after your unvote/fos of me. How exactly is that "over time" and not "instantaneous"?

@Elmo:

I do find it interesting, but I'm chewing on it a bit more. I think it might be interesting to find the lowest # of interactions and try and force them in some way.

3.) The Artem-Elmo 3 / Elmo-Artem 39.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure how to feel about Elmo's continued defense of me, so I've generally been leaving it unanswered.

Unvote

. A lot has happened and I need to reevaluate how I feel about the players.

[Ectomancer]

@Ecto:

You congratulated Adel in the game he cited. Here, you're saying that graphs and charts rarely help you find scum. Why does this raise an inconsistency flag for me?

I'm not Adel. It may help him, but it sure as hell doesn't help me. In fact, it allows people to do what I call "muddying the waters" by debating endlessly over these charts. It actually makes it more difficult for me to sort out who is doing it, and who actually is making genuine commentary....and I tend to not read them properly either....

Anyhow, Adel deserved the congratulations. I had already made up my mind that Korts was scum.

[Herodotus]

If players A and B are both town, and player A had said player B needs to die, "PLZ K THX", then as scum, I'd try to keep both players A and B alive. As things stand right now, unless you're scum, then we have a problem, which is that you're liable to give the scum the extra vote on me they could use later, particularly in LYLO. Of course, the same could be said for a lot of people, but you're the one I'm most worried about, since PT is much more likely scum than you are.

Day 1 opinions will almost certainly change over the course of the game. Scum who's banking on them is not bright scum.

In that case, I have not been bright scum in past games.
But I find it hard to see how his opinion will shift from "die die die" to "I can risk the game on Herodotus not being scum" without a sanity-confirmed investigation and an already-dead godfather.
Anyways, that's my fear.

I unvoted Artem so that he would not be forced to claim prematurely.

I don't claim prematurely, unless I'm a miller / self-watcher or any other role that is inherent to my existence rather than action. In fact, I've spent a lot of energy in a lot of games arguing against Day 1 L-1 claims, because I think they are largely pointless.

Interesting. Could you link to any discussion you've made of this (in which you were town?)

Sure, you don't know that unless you've read the games I've been in, but if the sole reason for your unvote is a claim concern, then why have you not pursued any other points that you find suspicious against me? You're saying that over time you changed your mind about how suspicious I am, but you have not pushed a single point against me after your unvote/fos of me. How exactly is that "over time" and not "instantaneous"?

Vi seems to have the opposite criticism.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 48#1693348

outside some one-liners and a summary vote on tajo I'm pretty sure that since you unvoted Artem most of your criticism has been directed toward Artem.

Artem, you simply haven't done anything that looks scummy to me since I unvoted you. Pushing a point against you for something that isn't scummy because of my earlier ideas would have been confirmation bias.

[Elmo]

Pushing a point against you for something that isn't scummy because of my earlier ideas would have been confirmation bias.

You're very nonchalant about suspecting him earlier for something that isn't scummy. You realise that's bad, right?

[Elmo]

No, wait, I'm misreading, sorry. But similarly, I completely don't see how your "earlier ideas" are less valid now than they were then; but it's become less convenient to push them.

[Adel]

@Adel:

You said that there was no scum-driven competing wagon to my wagon. Do you think the wagon on you is/was a scum-driven attempt to derail Hero's wagon?

What do you think?

How much attention has my wagon received relative to other wagon that were at two votes, and had peaked at three votes?

[Artem]

Interesting. Could you link to any discussion you've made of this (in which you were town?)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 01#1149801
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 46#1197146
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 42#1325342
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 58#1615558

Artem, you simply haven't done anything that looks scummy to me since I unvoted you. Pushing a point against you for something that isn't scummy because of my earlier ideas would have been confirmation bias.

Well, then you unvoted me because you no longer found me suspicious, not because you didn't want a premature claim. Right?

[Ectomancer]

Forgot @Artem - if you take a quick look at my lead of the Darkdude lynch in the game you are referencing, you'll see one example of how I scumhunt. It isn't with charts

[Elmo]

Vi seems to have the opposite criticism. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 48#1693348

Why are you citing Vi as a counterpoint to Artem when you've just said you'd be inclined to lynch Vi as one of your two top suspects, hm?

[SpyreX]

It wasn't role fishing for you to mention the idea of masons. It was role-fishing to push the issue of my mentioning Adel's name often. You found a possible pro-town role tell, and made a big deal of it.

Key is possible. Could you be masons? Sure.

Does that change the fact that this behavior is suspect? No.

Does this change the fact that you could, in fact, be scum? No.

I'm not going to shoot myself in the foot on the off chance I out a PR. That amount of namedropping is highly suspect and is going to be dealt with as such.

As an aside: voting for "rolefishing" is almost as good as "lol reactions".

1.) What you have is a sequence of individual events. I cannot fully answer why I created a pattern of which I was unaware; I can answer for specific instances, and I can also give you some broad, general factors that led to the pattern.
One reason I've put a lot of thought into things Adel has said is because I understand that he is probably the top scum-finder in this game. Consequently, if I decided he was town, I'd probably put a lot of trust in his analysis, and I wanted to see where his mysteriousness was going.
Two other reasons for the quantity of namedrops are that he has asked me several questions, and because I've been asked about him many times.
2.) I discussed nicknames in order to make your counts more accurate, and pronouns in order to provide more perspective on the effective precision of the counts.

Yes, I do have a sequence of individual events... which is going to be most everything. Not sure what you're shoot for there.

As for not being aware of mentioning Adel almost 100 times this game. Can't help you there.

And if this is "they are good, so." Well, that's not going to fly. Good OR bad if you are town the fact you do not know their alignment damn well should play a role.

2.) Yes, I said its a rough estimate. I have not the time nor inclination to do a full heads on positive / negative / null read on this mess. It was done for a single reason: to show how often in comparison you mention Adel.

In that case, I have not been bright scum in past games.
But I find it hard to see how his opinion will shift from "die die die" to "I can risk the game on Herodotus not being scum" without a sanity-confirmed investigation and an already-dead godfather.
Anyways, that's my fear.

This, of course, precludes you being dead before then. Again, this bothers me (surprise) because as town why the hell would you assume you wouldn't be dead?

[Artem]

What do you think?

How much attention has my wagon received relative to other wagon that were at two votes, and had peaked at three votes?

So, I'm going to pull the same trick on you as you did on Porkens.

Can you please post your chart for this game for, oh I don't know, posts 375 onward?

Please do it ASAP.

[Herodotus]

No, wait, I'm misreading, sorry. But similarly, I completely don't see how your "earlier ideas" are less valid now than they were then; but it's become less convenient to push them.

I was wrong about some points I was holding against Artem. It's that simple.

[Elmo]

What specific points were wrong, and why did you not realise you were wrong at the time? And what precisely caused you to change your mind?

[Adel]

Can you please post your chart for this game for, oh I don't know, posts 375 onward?

no chart yet. I haven't bothered.

[Herodotus]

Well, then you unvoted me because you no longer found me suspicious, not because you didn't want a premature claim. Right?

Wrong. I decided I preferred to have more time to decide about you before someone came along, voted you, and asked for a claim.

Does that change the fact that this behavior is suspect? No.

I missed the part where you explained how using someone's name too many times made me a suspect. Frankly, I don't think you even believe that.

...
2.) I discussed nicknames in order to make your counts more accurate, and pronouns in order to provide more perspective on the effective precision of the counts.

...
2.) Yes, I said its a rough estimate. I have not the time nor inclination to do a full heads on positive / negative / null read on this mess. It was done for a single reason: to show how often in comparison you mention Adel.

This was in answer to your question (2) -- an explanation for why I brought those things up. You seem to be treating it as something new.

This, of course, precludes you being dead before then. Again, this bothers me (surprise) because as town why the hell would you assume you wouldn't be dead?

Do you think the scum are going to even consider NKing me?

What specific points were wrong, and why did you not realise you were wrong at the time? And what precisely caused you to change your mind?

1. He suggested there was a >50% chance I was scum, but didn't vote me.
^ Answered by his claim that he really meant "above random." At first, I simply didn't believe this revision, but in retrospect I see no actual scummy motivation for him to make his original statement and mean it as it was written.
2. When I argued that it was suspicious that he hadn't voted me, he did so, even though his only listed reason (lack of aggression) was no longer accurate.
^ Answered by his repeated statement that I was "asking for a vote." I was not, but Artem could have seen it that way.
3.

You're at three votes, and you consider wagons to be pro-town, so you should be happy; again your response looks inconsistent with a town alignment.

was wrong, as I admitted.

[Herodotus]

(Not that the above list is necessarily exhaustive, but I don't see a need to spend hours looking for incorrect points I've made.)

[SpyreX]

I missed the part where you explained how using someone's name too many times made me a suspect. Frankly, I don't think you even believe that.

Except, of course, I did.

Add into that this really offputting Herod connection (I'm hoping to actually do that analysis today) and that is plenty fine for the vote.

I didn't think I needed to spell out "Scummy person A is doing something AND person B is attached to their hip and neither of them are speaking up about it which, in fact, makes me believe there is a connection between them."

Between that and the fact I detailed how I see this connection has having an obvious scum motivation (see the you're both scum / you're scum / you're masons (scum)) I'm not sure how you could say you would think anything BUT the fact I find it suspect.

This was in answer to your question (2) -- an explanation for why I brought those things up. You seem to be treating it as something new.

I presented my data as "This illustrates Herod-Adel being connected. This is bad."

You keep, in essence, attacking the data. Under the guise of making it more accurate, sure - but pinpoint accuracy wasn't the purpose of it. It was to do one thing and one thing only.

Do you think the scum are going to even consider NKing me?

Tonight? Ever?

Well, no, but thats because I am thinkin' you be scum.

Still, the day-1 building on you being alive at LYLO is offputting.

[Adel]

[Porkens]

Adel, I'm impressed by your chart in 442. However, I am tired of beating my head against the wall asking you (again, and again) for the now 3 pieces of information you should give us (1. What's your meta analysis of your survey results? 2. Explanation for what reactions you wanted from the vote on SpyreX (I actually don't care about these, but since you said you would explaine, please do.) 3. What have I been stalling on?)

Elmo, your analysis in 448 is nice, but of course it'll get more interesting as the game develops (aka people start dying). I also dig what you accuse Korts of in 452.

Korts, as per 456; are you saying you backed off your vote because Adel questioned you?

Herod;

In that regard, I'm going to disappoint him. I just hope it doesn't lead to a mislynch in LYLO (I'm guessing this is the current game-plan of the scum, assuming Elmo is town.)

and

Do you think the scum are going to even consider NKing me?

This has been mentioned already but it warrents another: What?
AND an """rolefishing""" backpeddle in 477?

unvote, vote: herodotus

Artem; Blah, I've asked the most, I don't even have to go back and count to be sure of that (although you are welcome to.) Like I said before, your attack on me, consisting of "PORKENS IS JUST PARROTING"

after

I accused you of the same is transparent, I dunno, "one-upsmanship," possibly? In any case, doing it the most makes me king of it, so there you go.

[Ectomancer]

Well, then you unvoted me because you no longer found me suspicious, not because you didn't want a premature claim. Right?

Wrong. I decided I preferred to have more time to decide about you before someone came along, voted you, and asked for a claim.

Hrm. I had a lengthy answer, but I'll just simply say, NO. Let people do what they are going to do.

Does that change the fact that this behavior is suspect? No.

I missed the part where you explained how using someone's name too many times made me a suspect. Frankly, I don't think you even believe that.

I find this a dubious assertion as well. Has Adel done an analysis on how often good and which type of data comes from the charts and is generally reliable yet?

You keep, in essence, attacking the data. Under the guise of making it more accurate, sure - but pinpoint accuracy wasn't the purpose of it. It was to do one thing and one thing only.

I think attacking the data because of a point you are making utilizing that data is valid. I also am well aware of being able to create charts that can say what you want it to say. (Just pick the right chart/data set) That makes the "It was to do one thing and one thing only" statement up for debate as well.

Do you think the scum are going to even consider NKing me?

Tonight? Ever?

Well, no, but thats because I am thinkin' you be scum.

Still, the day-1 building on you being alive at LYLO is offputting.

I'm hanging my hat on this.

[Vi]

Something that's worth interrupting conversation.

Unofficial Vote Count

Herodotus (7): Elmo, populartajo, Vi, Adel, Ectomancer, SpyreX, Porkens

populartajo (1): Zorblag
Artem (1): springlullaby
SpyreX (1): Herodotus

Not Voting - Korts, Artem

[Adel]

I'll try to finish it before twilight ends.

@Porkens&SpryX: were you aware of where H. was at when you voted?