Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 8:36 am

Post by SpyreX »

Good lord I'm taking a nap before I delve into this.

@Korts: Apparently your page 1 vote for OGB, which was right in the mix of charters real vote / rofls real vote wasn't real or you dont remember it. Either way, thats fine and definitely removes you from your list.

@Rofl: I was catching up and my major concern with Sera is the pressure he's got from other scummy players. It doesn't speak right for a bus setup.

And I didn't ignore Korts OR Axel. Korts's early vote made me find a bus unlikely and I'd lynch Axel. Just wasn't a bandwagon jumper in the classic sense.
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I always lynch scum... sometimes they're just not mafia. :P

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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 8:42 am

Post by SpyreX »

And I'm not doubting the existance of a vig. Far from it. The fact that mufasa doesn't have that role in his Joat makes me think all the more there IS a vig.

I am saying that I do not think last nights mysterious kill was a vig.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 8:52 am

Post by roflcopter »

SpyreX wrote:And I'm not doubting the existance of a vig. Far from it. The fact that mufasa doesn't have that role in his Joat makes me think all the more there IS a vig.

I am saying that I do not think last nights mysterious kill was a vig.
which is, in essence, a preemptive strike on any future vig claim which does include claiming responsibility for one of last nights kills
spy wrote:@Rofl: I was catching up and my major concern with Sera is the pressure he's got from other scummy players. It doesn't speak right for a bus setup.
two scumgroups means it doesn't have to be a bus, it could just be russian mafia happy to lynch non russian. i would think you would have realized this. go take your nap and come back.
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 10:20 am

Post by TDC »

Vote Count
Seraphim (5): roflcopter, Korts, populartajo, Starbuck, Mufasa

darkdude (1): Seraphim
Axelrod (1): charter
Starbuck (1): SpyreX

Not Voting (11): tubby216, darkdude, ekiM, iamausername, alvinz95, skitzer, X, Mixologist, HowardRoark, Caboose, Axelrod

10 to lynch.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 10:32 am

Post by Axelrod »

roflcopter wrote: my disagreeing entirely with your point here aside, i don't see why you had to
make
this point when the whole matter is already over and done. it doesn't matter when there was sufficient evidence to really merit a lynch in your opinion or mine, what matters is that very early on something from ogb tripped sensors, pressure was applied, and he and other players responded in a way that can now be analyzed.

the fact that you're going about this by continuing to question whether or not i was right to attack ogb when i did looks to me like an attempt to discredit my personal scumhunting ability in order to save yourself from what new evidence i just presented implicating you.
Well, it was inspired by your #352, where it appeared that you were pointing the finger at everyone who didn't condemn OGB immediately - with each post described by you variously as defending, deflecting or coaching. And that's simply wrong. Which ought to be obvious. You've got something like 7 people mentioned in that post. Clearly not all, or even most of those people are going to turn out to have been scumbuddies with OGB. I disagree with your
analysis
. And when you make these kind of conclusive statements based on little to nothing, I find it annoying.
rofl wrote::roll: being facetious does not help your cause
Sure it does.

:roll:
rofl wrote:look, seriously, its time for you to find another axe to grind. i'm already of the opinion that you spent the entire day yesterday grilling mufasa as a means to avoid meaningful interaction with anyone or anything else, and now that we've had scumflips from two different factions on people who were doing their very best to get mufasa lynched for shitty reasons we can all rest easy knowing that the guy is basically confirmed town. you don't need to waste energy and everyone's time giving him the third degree again.
So sorry, but I won't be placing Mufasa in the "confirmed town" category anytime soon. He appears to me to be almost completely untrustworthy. He said precisely zip about Korts yesterday. He named several other people who he thought were scummy. And yet he apparently didn't decide to block one of those scummy people he mentioned, but someone else he had never mentioned. And now he says that Korts was one of his "sneaking" suspicions (along with the other people who he actually, you know, talked about). No, he does not get the Mantle of Trust from me.

I can agree there are bigger fish to fry at the moment, though.

Some of the things I was going to say have been said by SpyreX in terms of people who appear unlikely to be a part of the "Russian" Mafia. The Russian Mafia would not likely have chosen to bus their own 1-shot vig. so early in the game based a minor point they could have easily ignored. That makes:

Charter (post #19), and
Korts (post #21)

Very
unlikely to be Russian Mafia.

I'll also put rofl (post #23) in there as well, but I actually think it's slightly weaker than the others as an indication of non-alignment, mainly because of the
vehemence
with which rofl attacked OGB. I thought then, and still think the attack was way out of proportion to the offense. But to believe rofl was scumbuddies with OGB you'd have to believe he decided to seriously gambit on his own team's 1-shot vig. right from the outset, just to try and set himself up to look better later in the game, and I don't really think that.

x (post #24) is somewhat interesting. He votes OGB, furthering the wagon that's building, but does it in a joking way - not a serious way. My feeling is that if a scumbuddy was going to jump on a growing wagon like this, he'd do it more seriously, because it was turning into a real wagon at that point. That looked okay for X, but then, in post #115, he asks rofl why OGB's first post could be grounds for a lynch, and I don't get him asking rofl that question at that time. I mean, X voted for OGB so what's he criticizing here exactly? And then in #231, the unvote of OGB to vote Mufasa is somewhat questionable, mainly because OGB had done nothing to merit an unvote. X can say that Mufasa simply surpassed OGB in terms of scumminess in his eyes, and this might be the truth, but it's still somewhat suspect.

I think the combination of posts #25, #27, and #36 make a very strong argument that Seraphim is not Russian Mafia either.

SpyRex (#128) looks okay for not being aligned with OGB, mainly because the clusterfuck that was Mufasa had happened at this point and, if SpyreX was aligned with OGB, Mufasa would have been
such
an easy target at that time. To decide to bus your 1-shot vig. at that particular moment seems unlikely.

Starbuck, on the other hand, could easily be aligned with OGB based on the way she was posting. The way she voted for Mufasa in #136 seems especially suspect.

I agree with most of what ekiM has said this game. #133 and #149 make me feel reasonably confident he's not Russian Mafia either.

Darkdude (#149) could also easily be aligned with OGB.

Populartajo's #263 is pretty bad. Aside from having Inhim and thAdmiral as "Town" he's got OGB as "Neutral" and says he doesn't get the hate.

Tubby's vote in #315 might make it slightly less likely he's Russian Mafia, but doesn't mean a whole lot one way or the other due to his tremendous lurking.

Summary: People not likely to be Russian Mafia:

Charter
Korts
Rofl
Seraphim
SpyreX
ekiM
(Me!)

People who easily could be:

Starbuck
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 11:52 am

Post by Seraphim »

I'll try to organize this post because there's a lot I want to address.

Concerning Mufasa:
Given the flips and Korts confirming Mufasa's roleblock, I am willing to back off Mufasa until he has used all his abilities. There are other, scummier players out there and lynching them should be our first priority, but let me make myself clear: I DO NOT want Mufasa alive during LYOL. At all. Period. End of story. I could care less if you disagree but Mufasa's "reads" have been useless and shitty.

The Bandwagon on Me:
Five people have voted for me in a relatively short period of time. Warning bells are flashing in my head. Allow me to split the votes on me into Good Votes and Bullshit Votes.

Good Votes:
Rofl - has laid out a case against me being linked to ThAdmiral...I'll get to debunking this case later in this post.

Korts - You don't give up, do you? Rather than saying that everything I say is scummy, why not actually post a case? Are all my posts scummy? Why? Please, enlighten me.

Bullshit Votes:

Tajo - Reasoning, please, even if it's "I agree with rofl".

Starbuck - I need to reread you as there is some agreement that you are scummy. But I don't like your vote on me either.

Mufasa - If Korts is a member of the Italian Mafia, why is he confirming your claim of being roleblocked last night? And if you're so sure he's Italian(Why, btw?), why are you voting me? Why do I need pressure?

Roflcopter's case:


Most of your case consists solely of ThAdmiral making mentions to me. However, up until now, I don't think I've ever mentioned Admiral in ANY of my posts. ThAd was most likely, like you say in regards to darkdude, laying groundwork for future mislynches.

Also, you seem to be missing something rather obvious...the OTHER member of the Italian Mafia killed last night. You say it looks like distancing, but I have been attacking him since he started posting. If he hadn't died last night, I would been voting for him today.

Your entire case provides absolutely no real proof that I am scum. All your evidence is circumstantial and hinges on the fact that I am Italian Mafia. What if I'm Russian Mafia? What if I'm town? What if I'm an SK?

As for buddying up, yes, in larger games, I do have a tendency to buddy up with players I have a town read on and feel are experienced, both of which I feel from you. I did this in WIH. You know that.

I feel like partially claiming...
So, I will. I am a member of the Lower Roccisi Neighborhood. My neighbor doesn't need to claim and confirm me if he doesn't want to out himself. Discuss.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 12:04 pm

Post by darkdude »

especially because you don't even come to a hard conclusion of any kind
No I don't have a conclusion as I'm too lazy to do a meta check on him right now. Really.

I think rofl spyre and axel are town, since they are so motivated, going through all those past posts. I can hardly see scum putting in that much effort.

I don't think Korts being blocked should be the default explanation for the lack of Italian NK. There are so many other possible explanations.

Seeing as how there was 1 kill Night 0 but most likely 3 attempts Night 1, and 2 scum groups, I doubt that one scum group was able to kill Night 0 while the other was not. So this would imply the third kill was from a SK who also killed Night 0.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 12:06 pm

Post by darkdude »

Most of your case consists solely of ThAdmiral making mentions to me. However, up until now, I don't think I've ever mentioned Admiral in ANY of my posts. ThAd was most likely, like you say in regards to darkdude, laying groundwork for future mislynches.
If you're using this to defend yourself shouldn't you take your vote off me?
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 12:07 pm

Post by darkdude »

And why did you feel like claiming?
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 1:38 pm

Post by X »

@roflcopter's 352, I can't understand how you find it scummy to have had some sort of pause before lynching OGB. I stick by my statement that OGB's first post alone was not enough to warrant a lynch. The other quote that you said was my defense of OGB was legit:
roflcopter wrote:
x wrote:Except, roflcopter, his meta shows that he's done similarly as town. And it doesn't take long to check, I promise.
obvious, obvious last ditch defense of the scum, posted directly after my long and involved case. posted alongside this zinger is a big fat case against inhim, which looks like one last attempt to get an alternative wagon going to save ogb.
1. Did you look at the meta? I highly doubt it, otherwise you would see this as a legitimate observation. Or you think that everyone who is not suspicious of scum is scum...
2. You seem to be disappointed that I posted a case against IHSIB.

I can actually see roflcopter being Russian Mafia, bussing hard through D1 to get town points. Your certainty in his guilt was crazy. Also considering darkdude as another Russian Mafioso, as rofl completely ignored him and chalked him up to being town.

I remember Adel saying something as Town that scum often say the names of people they are connected with more often. Looking at the dead Italian Mafiosi from this light, Seraphim does look like scum.
Axelrod wrote:rofl: I'm liking a lot of what you are saying at the moment (comments directed at me excepted), and you can pat yourself on the back all you like about OGB, but the fact is the case you were pushing, starting from his very first post, was never as strong as you were acting like it was. Certainly not at the beginning. OGB posted six times in the entire game, one line posts, and three of those were on Day 1. It wasn't until his post #5 that it started to look real bad. Calling out everyone who didn't jump on him instantly is fairly well ridiculous.
QFT.
charter wrote:
roflcopter wrote:
axelrod wrote:OGB: you have been accused of trying to distract the town by getting people to guess your "real" identity. You have been further accused of ignoring complaints against you and failing to contribute anything to the game. How do you plead?
axelrod appears to be coaching ogb into not playing like a bonehead, as if it will save him at this point
Axelrod wrote:Well, I wanted to hear OGB say something and this is what he said:
OozingGolfBall wrote:
Mufasa wrote:You may be the more retarded than me, wow you level of comprehension in that last statement was next to none. Seriously look at your pm and look at the examples they don't state much of an ability.
I agree with this. I think Starbuck is another member.
Vote axelrod


I think I messed up that second one, but I agree with rofl's first two coaching points.
How did Starbuck have anything to do with the part that you quoted?
Korts wrote:I agree with the Upper Roccisi Neighbourhood claiming.
Seraphim wrote:
I feel like partially claiming
... So, I will. I am a member of the Lower Roccisi Neighborhood. My neighbor doesn't need to claim and confirm me if he doesn't want to out himself. Discuss.
Um, what good does claiming Neighbor do? IHSIB was a Neighbor and scum.

Mufasa, I'm thinking you're town more now. But that doesn't mean I don't want you to explain yourself. Your "sneaking suspicions" need explaining.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 2:01 pm

Post by Seraphim »

darkdude wrote:
Most of your case consists solely of ThAdmiral making mentions to me. However, up until now, I don't think I've ever mentioned Admiral in ANY of my posts. ThAd was most likely, like you say in regards to darkdude, laying groundwork for future mislynches.
If you're using this to defend yourself shouldn't you take your vote off me?
No. I'm saying that ThAd was trying to get you mislynched and I'm accusing you of being a member of another Mafia team.
darkdude wrote:And why did you feel like claiming?
I felt there was adequate pressure on me to claim part of my role.
X wrote:Um, what good does claiming Neighbor do? IHSIB was a Neighbor and scum.
Because I find it extremely unlikely that two of these groups exist. I knew when I received the neighbor role that there was most likely going to be a scum mason group. I seriously doubt there would be two which is why I'm fairly sure my partner is town. Hopefully, my partner will come to the same conclusion.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 2:41 pm

Post by tubby216 »

sorry not trying to lurk there is just alot to go over in this game
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 2:47 pm

Post by Axelrod »

Seraphim wrote: Good Votes:
Rofl - has laid out a case against me being linked to ThAdmiral...I'll get to debunking this case later in this post.

Korts - You don't give up, do you? Rather than saying that everything I say is scummy, why not actually post a case? Are all my posts scummy? Why? Please, enlighten me.
Why do you have Korts listed under "good votes?" This doesn't read like you think it's a good vote.
Seraphim wrote:
Roflcopter's case:


...Also, you seem to be missing something rather obvious...the OTHER member of the Italian Mafia killed last night. You say it looks like distancing, but I have been attacking him since he started posting. If he hadn't died last night, I would been voting for him today.
Your interaction with inHim is probably the most suspect thing against you. Starting with #151 where you said "I'm sorry" to inHim before you said his post sounded scummy. Have you apologized to anyone else for thinking they made a scummy post this game? It was oddly deferential.

In that same post you did that weird thing where you
unvoted
Mufasa, while maintaining he was still your top choice for scum, but thought the wagon was moving too fast, and didn't think that pressure was going to do any good anyway.

InHim and thAdmiral were virtual non-entities on Day 1. They arrived late and didn't have all that much to say, so it's somewhat suspect that you formed such a
strong
read on him so quickly. That seems to be a theme this game.
Seraphim wrote:Your entire case provides absolutely no real proof that I am scum. All your evidence is circumstantial and hinges on the fact that I am Italian Mafia. What if I'm Russian Mafia? What if I'm town? What if I'm an SK?
I don't think you're Russian Mafia. I think, if you're scum, you can only be Italian Mafia, some other as yet unrevealed Mafia, or SK.
Seraphim wrote:
I feel like partially claiming...
So, I will. I am a member of the Lower Roccisi Neighborhood. My neighbor doesn't need to claim and confirm me if he doesn't want to out himself. Discuss.
Your logic for making this claim:
Because I find it extremely unlikely that two of these groups exist. I knew when I received the neighbor role that there was most likely going to be a scum mason group. I seriously doubt there would be two which is why I'm fairly sure my partner is town. Hopefully, my partner will come to the same conclusion.
Is poor. These are not "Mason" groups by definition. InHim was Italian Mafia and part of a group. Logically, there will be at least one Russian Mafia who is also part of a separate group. And if there's a SK he could easily be part of a group.

You'd do better arguing that the Italian Mafia (which rofl thinks you are) wouldn't have 2 members who were also in different groups with townies. That would seem unusual, but I also wouldn't say it's impossible. What rofl said about it being unlikely that there's any more Italian Mafia in the Upper Roccisi Neighborhood is probably correct, but that's about as far as it goes in terms of "clearing" anyone.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Thu May 28, 2009 4:59 pm

Post by charter »

rofl wrote:charter - things i said about seraphim, agree/disagree?
Early on I thought he was scum, now I think hopelessly lost. I don't agree with you that he's scum.

I thought I mentioned Mufasa in my first post, but I forgot. Very disappointed he is alive. Very disappointed. Not going to continue wasting my energy if he isn't going to be lynched.

Starbuck jumping on board seraphim reads trying to save her own skin. I haven't forgotten about her yet.
roflcopter wrote:and i really, really don't like this:
spyrex wrote:Mufasa could still use that bullet.
because no, he should not be shot, he is a town power role and thats even more evident today than it was yesterday

i suddenly understand why spyrex is on tubby's shortlist

spyrex also notably left charter off of the list of people who jumped wagons when he is the most blatant wagon jumper, being gung ho for an ogb lynch until mufasa comes along and is suddenly ZOMG THE ONLY PERSON WE CAN LYNCH BCUZ HES SO DUMB
Are you daft? Mufasa said he blocked Korts. Korts said he can confirm it was likely he was blocked. I'm not trying to find out why Korts would say this, but I sure as hell know if Korts was scum (not with Mufasa) he wouldn't say that (Hey guys, my mafia kill didn't go through :roll:). I don't think you understand what I was going for yesterday (not sure how that's possible, but I'll restate). We are lynching Mufasa to win. Did Mufasa stop a mafia kill last night? I'm betting no. WHY THE HELL ARE WE CONTINUING TO LET HIM BLOCK PEOPLE THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP TOWN? Mufasa has shown that he is incapable of helping town and it sounds to me like he's hurting town.

I'm waivering on rofl being town. He was absolutely dead set on an OGB lynch from his very first post. I know a thing or two about believing your reads blindly and tunnel vision, and what rofl did yesterday reminds me of bussing a scum buddy, not town thinking they've got a scum in the bag.
Axel wrote:But to believe rofl was scumbuddies with OGB you'd have to believe he decided to seriously gambit on his own team's 1-shot vig. right from the outset, just to try and set himself up to look better later in the game, and I don't really think that.
This idea has certainly entered my head. I've done it before, and I coasted to LYLO, where a slew of horrible choices by myself got myself lynched.
X wrote:How did Starbuck have anything to do with the part that you quoted?
It didn't.
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 4:28 am

Post by iamausername »

Definitely need to reread D1 in light of the flips, and I might not get a chance to give it a thorough look until Monday.

Preliminary thoughts would be skitzer and darkdude as most likely Russians, no idea about possible Italians.
roflcopter wrote:Mufasa (7): charter, Starbuck, skitzer,
OozingGolfBall
, X,
ThAdmiral
,
inHimshallibe


this wagon is already proven to be 3 parts out of 7 mafia, with elements of both groups we know exist. can we put to rest the idea of the town killing mufasa please, once and for all?
Yeah, I supported a vig on Mufasa yesterday, but at this point it seems highly unlikely that he's scum.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 4:31 am

Post by populartajo »

I just have a question. Im no master in balancing setups and such so thats why I ask.

Whats the expected number of scum and mafia groups in this game?
Call me Tajo.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 4:31 am

Post by populartajo »

Knowing that, I will analyse ala rolf and come up with at least one obv scum after that.
Call me Tajo.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12894
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 6:08 am

Post by roflcopter »

charter wrote:Early on I thought he was scum, now I think hopelessly lost. I don't agree with you that he's scum.
please explain why in terms of the case i brought up. in particular, explain how the points i raised actually make him seem like hopelessly lost town and not scum.

i'll respond to other things later. let me just mention how much it fucking annoys me when people get on my case for being right. second game in a row this is happening.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 6:09 am

Post by SpyreX »

Ok, so maybe that nap went a little long and then madness.

However, back to the fray:
rofl wrote:because no, he should not be shot, he is a town power role and thats even more evident today than it was yesterday

i suddenly understand why spyrex is on tubby's shortlist

spyrex also notably left charter off of the list of people who jumped wagons when he is the most blatant wagon jumper, being gung ho for an ogb lynch until mufasa comes along and is suddenly ZOMG THE ONLY PERSON WE CAN LYNCH BCUZ HES SO DUMB
I'll freely admit he's town.
I also raise you that I freely admit I do not want him here at endgame.
However, the lynch shouldn't be wasted on him.

As for charter. I understand the "kill the idiot" mentality. That doesn't change he was the first to jump on OGB and it wasn't ever an issue of "OGB is cool now." it was "Kill this one, THEN kill this one."

Which I dig.
rofl wrote: spy, why do you feel the need to cast doubt on a vig claim that hasn't even happened yet? the fact that this third kill source did not take out the target you and charter tried to convince him/her/them to does not mean they're anti town. there was a significant level of legitimate suspicion leveled at inhim yesterday, and i can completely understand a thorough vig evaluating admiral during the night and deciding to ice him, so neither of those kills is really "shooting from the hip" just because they're not the kill you wanted made.
You are 100% correct. After rereading and sleeping again its pretty obvious both of those were decent shots. So. :P
Korts wrote:I don't follow this train of thought. I was a late addition to the wagon, I could be a hypothetical partner bussing. Also, if you don't think bussing is likely, why aren't early additions to this wagon on your list of unlikely Russians? ekiM, for instance. You mention him a few paragraphs later, but why not in this list?

I get the feeling you're just trying to appeal to the most aggressive scumhunters here.

Again, why is my early defense of OGB ignored?

SpyreX, you make no mention of Seraphim. Do you think he's not scummy at all?
Now, I dont get "WHY DONT YOU FIND ME SCUMMY" when you were an early vote and are forgetting it. Which is fine.

However, "appealing to the aggressive scum hunters"? Really.

It should come as no shock that due to play rofl and charter feel town through and through. You, however, are on my list of "probably not Russian" due to positioning only. Definitely not play.

As for Sera:
Rofl wrote:two scumgroups means it doesn't have to be a bus, it could just be russian mafia happy to lynch non russian. i would think you would have realized this. go take your nap and come back.
I couldn't see the trees for the forest.

Everything else aside.

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim.
Sera wrote:Most of your case consists solely of ThAdmiral making mentions to me. However, up until now, I don't think I've ever mentioned Admiral in ANY of my posts. ThAd was most likely, like you say in regards to darkdude, laying groundwork for future mislynches.

Also, you seem to be missing something rather obvious...the OTHER member of the Italian Mafia killed last night. You say it looks like distancing, but I have been attacking him since he started posting. If he hadn't died last night, I would been voting for him today.

Your entire case provides absolutely no real proof that I am scum. All your evidence is circumstantial and hinges on the fact that I am Italian Mafia. What if I'm Russian Mafia? What if I'm town? What if I'm an SK?

As for buddying up, yes, in larger games, I do have a tendency to buddy up with players I have a town read on and feel are experienced, both of which I feel from you. I did this in WIH. You know that.

I feel like partially claiming... So, I will. I am a member of the Lower Roccisi Neighborhood. My neighbor doesn't need to claim and confirm me if he doesn't want to out himself. Discuss.
This is bad.

1.) One way connections are going to be more prevalent in early game scum than two-way. Especially an over correction - see your "I didn't EVER mention ThAd" which is just as off.

2.) What does A have to do with B? You ignored one partner and bussed the other knowing full well there was a snowballs chance in hell of it being a lynch yesterday.

3.) Why, lord, why would you put a mafia ahead of town. Or even put that at all.

4.) Meta is awesome.

5.) You claimed the part of your role that means, get this, absolutely nothing considering the flips. Like, somehow, this will exonerate you.

Starbuck tomorrow. This for now.
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 8:03 am

Post by charter »

rofl, my thoughts on what you posted about Seraphim.
post 356- I don't think there is anything to get from ThAd. I agreed with a bunch of what he said, which makes me think he probably didn't say anything about his mafia partners (or innoculous things or just very little)
I do see why you think Caboose and ThAd could be partners, but early on it looked like Caboose and OGB could be partners, so Caboose could be a great lynch regardless.
I think you're reading too much into what ThAd posted, I don't think he left that many blatent links to buddies.
I agree that Seraphim is looking for scum in all the wrong places.

post 357- This all just reads bad play by Seraphim to me. Sure he could be scum, but I'm not seeing this as a tell on his alignment.

Basically, I'm not thinking there is this obvious of connection between ThAd and Seraphim and I don't see what Seraphim has done as scummy as opposed to just bad.
rofl wrote:given that the italian mafia had a doctor, and we know this doctor was not protecting the gf because the gf also died, it stands to reason that the mafia doc must have been protecting someone deemed even more likely to draw a nightkill than inhim was. this points to someone who was already under heavy suspicion yesterday being a part of if the italian mafia. seraphim was under heavy suspicion yesterday.
I missed this before, but this is a good point. I think it could have been Caboose too.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 9:11 am

Post by HowardRoark »

vote alvinz95

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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Korts »

X wrote:I can actually see roflcopter being Russian Mafia, bussing hard through D1 to get town points. Your certainty in his guilt was crazy. Also considering darkdude as another Russian Mafioso, as rofl completely ignored him and chalked him up to being town.

I remember Adel saying something as Town that scum often say the names of people they are connected with more often. Looking at the dead Italian Mafiosi from this light, Seraphim does look like scum.
Don't these two hypotheses contradict each other? If you suspect darkdude and rofl to be connected based on the fact that roflcopter ignored darkdude, and then you state that Seraphim is scummy because the dead Italians mentioned him often, there's a problem with your logic.
Axel wrote:These are not "Mason" groups by definition. InHim was Italian Mafia and part of a group. Logically, there will be at least one Russian Mafia who is also part of a separate group. And if there's a SK he could easily be part of a group.
Why do you assume the setup is symmetric? The Russians could easily have other perks instead of being part of a neighbourhood.
charter wrote:Did Mufasa stop a mafia kill last night? I'm betting no. WHY THE HELL ARE WE CONTINUING TO LET HIM BLOCK PEOPLE THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO HELP TOWN?
Is Mufasa likely town? I'm betting yes. WHY ARE YOU CONTINUING TO PUSH A LIKELY TOWN PLAYER'S WAGON?
populartajo wrote:I just have a question. Im no master in balancing setups and such so thats why I ask.

Whats the expected number of scum and mafia groups in this game?
I don't like this post. For one, the likely number of scum factions can be guessed fairly accurately from D1 and N1 flips; also, what does this have to do with setup balance, when we don't know how well the town's equipped or anything?
SpyreX wrote:However, "appealing to the aggressive scum hunters"? Really.
Yeah, really.
HowardRoark wrote:
vote alvinz95
Hey, make sure you don't overly exert yourself trying to help town.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 9:49 am

Post by Axelrod »

Korts wrote:
Axel wrote:These are not "Mason" groups by definition. InHim was Italian Mafia and part of a group. Logically, there will be at least one Russian Mafia who is also part of a separate group. And if there's a SK he could easily be part of a group.
Why do you assume the setup is symmetric? The Russians could easily have other perks instead of being part of a neighbourhood.
Because it's logical?

It's certainly more logical than Seraphim's "I don't think any other scums will be members of groups so claiming a group should clear me." post, which is what I was actually responding to.

I don't assume perfect symmetry either, but that much seems like a fairly easy conclusion.
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 9:52 am

Post by charter »

Korts. We are killing Mufasa because he is absolutely worthless in finding scum and will be a trainwreck in LYLO. What is so goddamn hard to understand about that?

FOS Howard. If I had three votes, you and Starbuck would be getting them as well.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2009 9:54 am

Post by Starbuck »

Why would I be receiving a vote?
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