Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[HowardRoark]

vote tubby216

He deserves it.

[HowardRoark]

God damn Pittsburgh people.

What's wrong? Upset about the Steelers or the Penguins?

@ekiM: Did you know the reference in my username, or was it after looking at my wiki and Google-ing?

I'm not trying to get alvinz lynched I'm trying to see if he will break down under the pressure.

This makes your vote worthless. If a wagon is built upon votes without the intention to lynch, then how is it pressure?

Mufassa's claim is poor. I hope that reaction to it is useful to finding scum.

FoS charter

for throwing shit to see what sticks.

ekiM's post 133 calling for prods and expecting more from those of us who have only posted once is just silly.

The "too stupid for scum" argument is not one that I've ever been fond of. Especially when made in defense of someone who has demonstrably acted stupidly before. It's neutral at best.

QFT

unvote
vote Korts

For his contrived case against Seraphim.

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[HowardRoark]

190- HowardRoark is possible scum too. He drew zero conclusions in his post, but gave plenty of summaries. Plus he votes Korts for voting Seraphim, when Seraphim is almost certainly scum. Very, very scummy post.

Interesting. I've found your play to be questionable and this is just adding to the puzzle. Having replaced Seraphim and reading other games he was in, this play is not out-of-line for him. You also overlook the questions I have posed. Most interesting is the fact that the first part in your post is an issue with Korts while you question my vote for him.

I doubt OGB is scum because scum would try to use the alt account to their advantage.

Complete WIFOM.

I realize that my V/LA is a good chumck of D1, but my brother's wedding is then (and about 2000 miles from my home). I should still have access, but due to events it will be limited.

@Korts: Please explain how each exhibit is relevant. #1 Just because a player doesn't say "I agree with ___" = scum . . . false. #2 I believe that Seraphim believed that Mixologist was backpedaling. #3 Saying that a player has been posting useless shit is not padding. #4 Voting a player for an early claim (and especially a questionable one) makes someone scum how? I believe that you know how Seraphim plays and found him to be an easy target (outside of the popular ones).

[HowardRoark]

HR: Thanks for defending me, but I can assure you, I'm fine.

Not defending you. Just pointing what I see.

Yep, Howard is scum too. All of this is just there to sound good, more not adding anything to the stew. Once again, no conclusions drawn other than his vague baseless assertation of my play being "questionable", whatever that is supposed to mean.

Let's see . . . questionable . . . it's not pro-town . . . it's not quite scummy . . . so it's _____. (You can fill in the blank with a word of your choosing. I chose "questionable.")

PEOPLE CALLING FOR A MUFASA LYNCH/VIG ARE SCUMMY. I'll compile a list of these people later.

I disagree with calling for his lynch today, but a vig kill is not totally inappropriate. How's that list coming? Will all of the people on that list be scum?
I don't think that taking credit for other's thoughts is pro-town. However, I don't expect players to always cite those that they are paraphrasing or agreeing with. If someone honestly believes something (and are incorrect or there is a difference of opinion) it may make it an invalid argument, but that's all.

HR: Thanks for defending me, but I can assure you, I'm fine.

I take this to mean "thanks, buddy, I don't want you to tie yourself to me".

If only scum were this obvious. *sigh*

Can you explain why Seraphim is probtown?

I didn't say probtown. I'm just saying that I've seen him twice as town and this is not any different.

this game needs moar howard,, be careful your meta is showing howard and i am tempted to vote you.

You didn't explain whatever meta you speak of.

tubby216 and I play together in another forum a lot. He thinks that he has a great read on me. I'll admit, it's not bad . . . but not perfect either.

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[HowardRoark]

unvote
vote darkdude

I think both OGB and Mufasa are town. Unfortunately I don't have good picks for scum yet.

And you still don't? Later that day he states why he believes these two are town:

it's just unnecessary attention which scum would avoid.

While generally true, is this really enough to clear him?

My initial reaction on Mufasa was indeed, "too stupid to be scum". There is meta suggesting that he is capable of this stupidity, but that's just a null tell.

I always

love

when people mention "too stupid" as a town tell . . . and then you go on to acknowledge that it is a null tell. So a null tell is enough to clear him?

Since when isn't there WIFOM?

There is always WIFOM, but it is counterproductive to bring it into the discussion.

I was actually thinking that scum would try to disguise their NK as a vigging.

While this is a plausible tactic, why do you think that

this

game's scum group(s) might employ this?

V/LA 22-29 MAY 2009

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[HowardRoark]

vote alvinz95

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[HowardRoark]

Perhaps for the fact that he was almost nonexistent yesterday and has yet to appear today.

[HowardRoark]

Howard - Has contributed zilch so far this game. Went after alvinz for lack of content.

I see your attempted point here. However . . . I was V/LA traveling for my brother's wedding for about a week; alvinz95 has just failed to participate.

There is a strong Howard/alvinz connection. alvinz' 414 post, other than being OMGUS, seems to damn Howard more than Caboose, but he votes Caboose and not Howard. Distancing probable.

In an alvinz-scum scenario people will have been bussing right after Caboose has claimed his results. Wagon analysis may not be much use, but I don't like Axel's (and Starbuck's, but he's a newb) distrust of Caboose--an unprovoked fakeclaim this early would be very stupid.

For reference:

Ha, I found the pot of gold. Despite my claim that Caboose was town because I thought he was joking, Caboose is still lingering on lynching me with little basis except that I'm not posting which is what I do in all my games... But now I see HowardRoark following Caboose's vote. It seems this is all under the plan to pick on the non-contributor which is what I do in all games and everyone knows. Caboose most likely did this to deflect attention off OozingGolfBall. Now HowardRoark follow and HowardRoark did not vote OGB either.

Scum = Caboose, HowardRoark.

Vote: Caboose

If this is your idea of distancing, that would make it very easy to find your scum partners. Thanks for the tip.

[HowardRoark]

vote populartajo

inHimshallibe - i get a "i vote whoever i feel like to" vibe from his posts. Slightly townie here. Would be good to hear more from him.

How did this guy flip? Oh yeah . . . Russian.

alvinz95 - crap poster. OGB pusher. What do you think of Mufasa? Why did you prefer OGB than the others? . Alvinz-Caboose realtionship is noted.

How did this guy flip? Oh yeah . . . Russian.

Mufasa - ok, we know this guy has lied before as town and he is a useless prick. The point that his claim doesnt make sense (two roleblocking abilities?) really doesnt mean anything here since we know he has lied before as town. The point is that if he is scum using this mascarade to win the game. Really torn here, leaning for the option of let this guy live and let scum to take care of him, specially when he claims to have some powerful abilites.

Flipped town. Was hoping the Italians would take him out or he'd be lynched D2?

roflcopter - started good but I find interesting his defense of Mufasa when I expected him to be over him. Would rolftown defend Mufasa as much as he did? Hyperagressive as usual.

Flipped town.

skitzer - weak logic.

Flipped town.

Starbuck - dont like this guy. Agreeing with rolf, charter and mike about ogb. Then, he has a weird stance regarding Mufasa. First he is quikcly to put Mufasa in the town territory. Too much for my taste. {snip} But then, he votes for him when the pressure starts to increase.

Flipped town.

HowardRoark - weak poster. His thoughts just dont make sense. His FOS and votes are terrible.

I am scum because I am a weak poster, but alvinz95 is neutral as a crap poster?

Stats on all predictions in this post:

• Prob town
  • Town: 0/7
  • Scum: 2/7
  • Unknown: 5/7
• Neutral
  • Town: 4/11
  • Scum: 2/11
  • Unknown: 5/11
• Prob Scum
  • Town: 2/3
  • Scum: 0/3
  • Unknown: 1/3

Analysis: Mostly neutral picks. Only 2 known on the town list and they were scum. Two thirds scum list are town. Yes, this is early in his game play, but it's interesting none-the-less.

Voting Record

263 (iso 3): Starbuck (1st) --

See above.

-- He rides this vote through D1.

367 (iso 5): Seraphim (3rd) --

No explanation. Also asks for neighborhood claim.

-- Opportunistic?

422 (iso 9): Caboose (2nd) -- "I dont think Seraphim is as optymal as I thought before. Some arguments point him to being likely Italian but inhim, flipped Italian, attacked him in a way that doesnt seem like bussing (twice). Im really interested in pressing someone like Caboose which is posting in mishmash and not here." -- He rides this vote through D2.

492 (iso 12): HowardRoark (1st) --

Quoted alvinz95's post-hammer

for "Obv hard bussing with some WIFOM salsa.", and "HowarRock isnt also the most protown person on the game, a quick check of your posts will tell you that"

Today is neither the day for mass claim nor neighborhood claim. While it might assist some players with knowing who's truthful, I believe the price of distraction is higher than that of the gain.

We do need to hear from Caboose concerning his result from last night. However, that is not a rush as I believe it would be helpful in the hunt for others to provide their input before the result is publicized.

Too late.

I believe that we have a better chance by leaving tubby216 alive for now. If he is an investigation-safe scum, the other scum group should be attempting to take him out at some point soon. If he is a bodyguard mason, then either team should be attempting to take him out in order to get to Caboose. (*braces for the accusations* Go ahead . . . let them fly!)

[HowardRoark]

There is a strong Howard/alvinz connection. alvinz' 414 post, other than being OMGUS, seems to damn Howard more than Caboose, but he votes Caboose and not Howard. Distancing probable.

I agree.
+scumpoints for Howard

That's hilarious.

Mixologist: Hasn't posted since post 302, Saturday 23rd of May. That was Day one. What the fuck? Thread re-opened on Thursday 28th and he was posting in other threads until he dropped off the site at the start of June.

QFT.

[HowardRoark]

First, I need to make a correction concerning my case on populartajo. He rated both Russian members (alvinz95 and OozingGolfBall) as neutral -- a good place to rate your partners.

Second, why no response/reaction to my case? Hoping that others will forget that I have you pegged like I had your partner alvinz95 from the beginning of that day?

Third, some additions to my case by going back to your original player summary. You had iamusername, Mixologist, and SpyreX as prob scum and you have yet to have any interaction with them. You have also had no interaction with X, whom you listed as neutral. What are your thoughts on them now?

Fourth, other than my lack of activity and the ridiculously contrived alvinz95 linkage . . . why are you screaming for my lynch? Seeing as how a darkdude lynch has become probable, are you attempting to draw people away from him?

[HowardRoark]

1) This is the best part of your response; it's all down hill from here.

2)

Your case is based on my bad reads yesterday and OMGUS. You didnt even know I existed before I attacked you, right?

Yes, I knew you existed before yesterday. I may have been V/LA for a while, but I know who all of the players are. This doesn't answer why you hadn't responded nor even mentioned my case. I made my case, you were V/LA for a bit, you have appearently caught up, you have ignored my case. It is just a OMGUS attack on me.

3) My apologies on the players you have ignored and your post 263 alignment reads, I read my notes like a dyslexic.

4)

Im not the only one thinking you are prob scum.^* Why the hate against only me? {snip} Did you miss the part where I said he is one of the good plays today?

Way to avoid my question on your screaming for my lynch. Please answer to why you have been constantly asking, begging, stating for me to be lynched. I am on you right now because I do not like some of your play so far. Your response to my case against you is my best guage for your alignment (barring any neon signs blinking "SCUM"). I also believe that darkdude could be a good lynch today, but in the meantime I am furthering my reads on other players.

HowardRoark, you just majorly screwed yourself over by saying that I was BUDDYING WITH YOU. Good job winning dammit

Did you even respond to this?

No. What is there to respond to? alvinz95 threw a fit because he was caught scum. If you have any experience with alvinz95 (or many other good scum players), you know that this is a great tactic: blow up and make a damning statement, such as this, on a town player to divert away from the partner.

^*Majority Authority?

BTW, FWIW: Here are some other people that I am still watching . . . Korts, iamusername, and

Mixologist

Lowell. However, Serphim keeps creeping back in there due to his poor play. (Sorry, guy . . . nothing personal . . . but I hated the one time I replaced for you and I've yet to read a game where I thought you didn't seem scummy or at least midly "mentally challenged".)

I was not impressed by your case on populartajo

That's fine . . . I'm not looking for anyone's kudos. It's my method.

you never gave long posts upon returning from V/LA

I'm sorry, I must have missed that in the rules somewhere. I'm not going to post "Hey, I'm back from V/LA; re-reading." nor a wall of text just to respond to everyone's points. I hope this one has become long enough to satisfy your desires.

1. What do you think of darkdude?
2. What do you think of Seraphim and my claim?
3. You were voting for Korts for the vast majority of D1. How has your opinion of him changed between now and then?

1) I don't like his play that much, but I am not ready to write him off as 100% scum. I am trying to compare his play in this game to another that he was scum.
2) I'm still digesting it. Early in the game I was willing to give Seraphim some room based on what I've seen of him before. You two are not my top concerns as of yet.
3) He is still on my list, but I need to finish with populartajo first.

[HowardRoark]

And that is how the weak case works . . . suddenly we get Korts boiling it down to OMGUS and iamusername tearing it apart. Do those two names sound familiar? Oh yeah, they were on my watch list. All just pieces of the puzzle.

I'd like to see a reaction from Seraphim to what X has posted as a paraphrase of the neighborhood's night talk. Right now, I'd have to say that it looks pretty bad for Seraphim: indifference when X was wary of him being mafia, role fishing, etc.

[HowardRoark]

The "connection" between alvinz95 and I: I have already said that is hilarious because it would be a horrible play for a scum to implicate a partner in such a method. Those putting stock in this "connection" are on the wrong side of this.

My mistakes concerning populartajo's scum list are honest. I have admitted these mistakes. What more do you want from me on that?

As for me drawing attention away from darkdude, I can see that some people may see it that way. My point was that populartajo has been repeatedly asking for my lynch. I have not called for someone else to be lynched in darkdude's place. I don't mind his lynch as I don't have a better candidate at this point.

The OMGUS comment stems from the fact that my second allegation was not addressed.

The idea is for populartajo to react to my case in order to have a better read on him. The bonus is when others do it for him. That's how real connections are made.

_______________
Let's go Pens!

[HowardRoark]

Korts was on the thread 21 minutes after it opened today asking for Caboose's result. Caboose gives his innocent result on me a few hours later. The response 12 minutes later. . .

Nothing else, then.

Did that strike anyone else as a bit worried . . . then relief?

I think it's more worthwhile to look for standalone scumtells or Italian tells at this point, because we've killed 3 Russians and only 2 Italians.

Are you advocating selective scum hunting? i.e. Italian scum only.

With every flipped scum being a power role, and the Russians already having had two 1-shot vigs flip, I'm finding it quite likely that it's two 3-man scum groups. 6 out of 23 doesn't seem out of order, and the town power roles revealed so far have not been particularly awesome. The idea of 2 more Russians is ludicrous. At the absolute most, 2 more Italians and one more Russian. Most likely in my eyes is no more Russians and one or two more Italians.

QFT

You're neglecting possibility of an SK?

If I were a SK, wouldn't an investigation of me result in a guilty result?

So I think the focus today is to find the very likely last Italian instead of a hypotehycal Russian.

See my comment on X's 679.

No one has explained to me why the nighttalk between us is indicative of him being scum

How about . . .

I'd have to say that it looks pretty bad for Seraphim: indifference when X was wary of him being mafia, role fishing, etc.

??? But, yes, I'd still like to hear from Seraphim concerning this. *hearing crickets chirping*

Caboose is a Cop, no way around it. His alignment is probably town, but we can't be certain.

Caboose, you need to scumhunt more. You've contented yourself with mostly posting investigation results and the occasional post to show your presence. Who do you think is scum?

QFT. It's most likely that tubby216 body guarded Caboose last night and took the bullet intended for him. And you let populartajo sway you into voting Caboose

that easily

???

HowardRoark has shown Russian and general scumtells. There are three Russian mafiosi dead, but none are a Godfather. Usually scumgroups include a Godfather. The Italian scumgroup included a Godfather. Caboose has given us accurate results in the past, and he announced an Innocent on HowardRoark. And as you said, TDC likes balance and making things even. If he gave a GF to one mafia group, he would likely give one to the other mafia group as well.
The problem arises when you look at alvinz95 and I Am, both Russians. alvinz95 implied in Twilight that HowardRoark was his scumbuddy. And when HowardRoark said that alvinz was pulling a gambit, I Am said that alvinz wasn't good enough to pull that gambit, thus making it look like HowardRoark was Russian. That would not be an intelligent move if I Am and HowardRoark were Russians together. I Am was Russian, therefore HowardRoark is not Russian. QED.

Let's

assume

that I am a Russian GF and TDC likes balance.

Given

Dead Italian Roles: GF, Doc.
Dead Russian Roles: 1-Shot, Multitasker, 1-Shot.

Balanced Result

Living Italian Roles: 1-Shot, Multitasker, 1-Shot.
Living Russian Roles: GF, Doc.

Problem

10 scum with extra kills in a 23 player start.
*sigh*

Getting lengthy, more to follow.

[HowardRoark]

Sorry, that is my "How obvious is this?!?!?!?" tone. You also did it in your first post yesterday. It seems as though you are very worried about having a guilty found on you or a partner. As you know, I have been keeping my eye on you. I was doing my revised PBPA on you and you are now off of my watch list. I believe there are better places to spend my time looking.

Mixologist

Lowell is one place, but there just isn't much to work with there.

[HowardRoark]

@Lowell: Your effort to buddy with me are noted.

@Caboose: I concur with X that you owe this game a complete analysis. Since our protective JOAT and bodyguard masons are dead, you have a much reduced chance of surviving the night.

@Seraphim: Upon your return Monday, you owe us some reaction and analysis.

[HowardRoark]

vote Lowell

Seraphim owes us a solid post (especially concerning the night talk paraphrase) and is next in line for the noose in my book.

Caboose should not be a lynch topic today. Once we have a lynch today and see the night results, we can discuss it. However, as semi-confirmed town, he owes us a solid analysis sooner than later.

15. Mixologist Lowell - mixo was prob townie when he was here, i got some overall townie read from first lowell post.

Really?!?!? Please elaborate. Mixologist had 10 posts and brought nothing noteworthy to the game. Lowell's first three are "getting caught up" posts.

It's not easily and publicly verifiable without another cop, or at least not before a lynch of his investigated target.

He had a proper result on alvinz95 and skitzer; that makes him semi-confirmed.

Ohh hell yes if I was scum I would have been on that wagon early. Thus why even I think at least one of the earlier votes are scum. When you add in the existance of a second group there's probably scum all over that wagon - low risk lynches day 1 are tech.

alvinz95 lynch: HowardRoark,

roflcopter

, SpyreX,

darkdude, Axelrod, Mufasa, tubby216, Starbuck

, ekiM, X
Early still living voters:

• HowardRoark -- innocent investigation
• Spyrex

That makes your statement an indirect accusation of me (or yourself). If you want to accuse me based on that, then just say it.
At his lynch, there were 19 players alive. That means 10 to lynch. That also means 9 people didn't have to be on the wagon.

Starbuck (2): Seraphim, skitzer
Caboose (2): alvinz95, populartajo
Seraphim (1): Korts
Axelrod (1): charter

Not Voting (3): iamausername, Mixologist, Caboose

{Russian} alvinz95

is voting Caboose -- no surprise
populartajo is voting Caboose -- last post is two days before lynch and prior to Cabose claim (!)
Korts is voting Seraphim -- occupied by a discussion with Starbuck, but stated willingness to hammer and asks for last words one day before lynch
charter is voting

Axelrod

-- last post is three days before lynch and states that if he had three votes they'd be going toward

Mufassa

, HowardRoark, and

Starbuck

(!!)

{Italian} iamusername

is not voting -- an Italian stayed off the wagon; had only one post D2

Mixologist

Lowell is not voting -- last post (overall) is ten days before lynch; Lowell comes in during D2
Caboose is not voting -- last post was one day before lynch and was waiting for claim before dropping the hammer

[HowardRoark]

charter: A Retrospective

All of D1, Mufassa's poor claim is more reason for a lynch than those he actually finds scummy.

Doesn't respond to points made against him. Examples: iso 9 w/ Korts, iso 11 w/ Mixologist.

(16) "FOS inHim." no explanation here
(17) "inHim moves straight on up to full fledged scumbag. Has switched his vote in every single post, and I believe it was always for a current voteleader or someone under a lot of scrutiny. He has also contradicted himself pretty glaringly a few times that I see. I'll be pointing them out in a little bit." But the points never came . . . Italian distancing?

(20) "inHim has cemented his position of scumbag with his latest post." Once again . . . a strong accusation of inHimshallibe . . . and nothing to go with it.
(21) "inHim I'm actually not as sure about" a bit of distancing.

No further mention of iAmusername. He had a few exchanges with ThAdmiral, but nothing of significance.

There's my strong second choice.

[HowardRoark]

EBWOP (741) . . .
IS: "No further mention of iAmusername."
SHOULD BE: "No further mention of inHimishallbe."

---

Let's look at the OozingGolfBall lynch . . .

[mrow]Post[col]Voter[col]Previous Votee[col]New Votee[col]OGB Count 19[col]charter[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]1 21[col]Korts[col] - [col]OGB[col]2 23[col]

roflcopter

[col]HowardRoark[col]OGB[col]3 24[col]X[col] - [col]OGB[col]4 25[col]Seraphim[col]X[col]OGB[col]5 49[col]Korts[col]OGB[col]Seraphim[col]4 77[col]charter[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]3 78[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]2 128[col]SpyreX[col] - [col]OGB[col]3 133[col]ekiM[col]HowardRoark[col]OGB[col]4 213[col]Mixologist[col]

Mufassa

[col]OGB[col]5 225[col]

{I} inHimshallibe

[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]6 231[col]X[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]5 232[col]

{R} alvinz95

[col]

skitzer

[col]OGB[col]6 246[col]

{I} inHimshallibe

[col]OGB[col]

Mufassa

[col]5 282[col]

{R} iamusername

[col]

skitzer

[col]OGB[col]6 315[col]

tubby216

[col] - [col]OGB[col]7 323[col]charter[col]

Mufassa

[col]OGB[col]8 324[col]

Starbuck

[col] - [col]OGB[col]9 331[col]Korts[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]10 335[col]

Axelrod

[col] - [col]OGB[col]11 340[col]

Mufassa

[col]Seraphim[col]OGB[col]12Observations:
* roflcopter was the first one who stayed on the wagon
* SpyreX and ekiM are the next two
* Mixologist is the next
* with alvinz95 close behind {Russian}
* iamusername is the next {Russian}
* then the last six, four of whom are town

* Korts and charter were on early and off near tipping point and back on after tipping point; always near each other
* inHimshallibe, charter, and Korts were all after Seraphim and Mufassa
* X and Seraphim went to Mufassa, then ended the day on inHimshallibe

* The two known Russians didn't bus until the tipping point.
* The only known Italian here was on and off at the tipping point
* ThAdmiral stayed clear of the wagon

[HowardRoark]

As far as

Mixologist

Lowell goes . . . it's about a complete lack of content.

In regards to charter . . . read 741 which spawned from the end of 740.

Caboose - when i analysed him he came up as the most likely italian. cop claim saved his ass, is there any reason why mafia are not killing a claimed cop and going for targets like axelrod?

I don't get it.

What don't you get? populartajo's lack of understanding that he was protected?

[HowardRoark]

@Serahpim: You owe us a response to what X has said.

@charter: You need to respond to what Lowell has claimed.

@Lowell: Your partial claim doesn't change my view on you.

@Caboose: You owe us a good analysis.

[HowardRoark]

charter and I are mason buddies

Me and Lowell are indeed in the Seaside Neighborhood.

Here's the issue I see . . .

• Groups:
  • The Upper Roccisi Neighborhood:
    • classified
  • The Italian Mafia:
    • classified

• Groups:
  • The Roccisi Masonry:
    • classified

I believe this is the slip of the day. "Neighborhood" is not the same as "Masonry"

[HowardRoark]

@X: There can be Mafia-aligned masons as well.

At deadline a majority of votes cast is needed to lynch.

For reference.

[HowardRoark]

I stand corrected . . . there cannot be Mafia aligned Masons in this game. That makes the claim even dirtier.

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

[HowardRoark]

I had to build my new desktop, but I'm back.

I'm not happy with the Lowell/charter neighborhood claim at all. How many neighborhoods do we have? Rocissi Masonry, Upper Rocissi, Lower Rocissi, and now Seaside Neighborhood. ** Is that the actual group name in the role PM? **

[HowardRoark]

@Seraphim: You need to respond to X's night talk paraphrase!!

@charter: Is "Seaside Neighborhood" the name of your group in the role PM?

[HowardRoark]

I am a vanilla townie.

Seaside Neighborhood. ** Is that the actual group name in the role PM? **

Is "Seaside Neighborhood" the name of your group in the role PM?

Please answer this simple question.

@Kison: Please drop us some analysis ASAP.

populartajo's claim, vote for Caboose, and explanation . . . do nothing to alleviate my previous suspicions of him.

I had my eye on Korts, he made some great effort a while back, then weakens again. Post 830 and his quick unvote of populartajo, based on his claim I assume, doesn't look good to me.

Seraphim . . . why do you ruin (833) a great attempt by charter (832) to work on populartajo's claim?!?!?!?

populartajo's quick acceptance (842) of SpyeX vanilla claim (841) is bothersome.

@charter (844): I think that Lowell / Mixologist not participating in your night talk is not a town tell. At best it is a null tell.

I want to see the rest of the claims and need to do a little re-reading. For now, my vote stands.

[HowardRoark]

One kill means we have just one kill left as I suspected. We are hunting a Italian.

One or two Italians. Why possibly two? With the Russian power roles, it seems as though the Italians might have one extra mafioso to help with the balance.

Spyrex dying when there are better targets (cough, Kison) and when he was heavily suspected strongly implies that he was killed by someone he attacked.

So, what are your conclusions based upon this statement? Here's yesterday's voting (all late day) on SpyreX for your review . . .

854 charter
863 Kison
866 Seraphim
867 Korts


Claims: (help me fill in the

?

's please)[mrow]Player[col]Claim[col]NeighborhoodekiM[col]?[col]?populartajo[col]Backup Cop[col]?Seraphim *[col]?[col]Lower RoccisiKorts[col]Voyeur JoAT[col]?X[col]Townie[col]Lower RoccisiLowell[col]?[col]SeasideHowardRoark[col]Townie[col]nonecharter[col]?[col]SeasideKison[col]Cop[col]?* NK Immune claim

[HowardRoark]

I see Lowell being anti-town at best.

vote Lowell

[HowardRoark]

Kison, do you realize that one of the optymal plays yesterday was to investigate Spyrex?

I read this as . . . "Hey!!! I killed SpyreX to waste one of your investigations because I expected an investigation on him! Why'd you investigate me?!?!?" This is gold. Drat that pesky result.

[HowardRoark]

charter's defense of me suggests he's town. A scum mason-buddy wouldn't try very hard to prevent his partner from being lynched. It would exonerate him and give him a clear path to victory were the town-buddy to die.

It neither clears nor implicates charter's alignment. Also note that I don't think we can use neighborhoods to determine alignment, only masonries.

I just can't shake this gut feeling that Korts is scum. I had him on my short list until he had that period of activity. Then he kind of thinned out again. His claim is believable, but he's also not a VI. Seeing the lack of Italian power (compared to the Russians), his could be a scum power role.

please spell Howard's name correctly. It's not Rock, it's Roark, as in the protagonist of The Fountainhead. Thanks

While I appreciate it . . . why? It doesn't really bother me. (I would have said something if it did.) Is it wrong to consider this buddying?

Just a note to the town to be careful--Lowell is at L-1.

I am always a bit anal with the wording of these warnings. Why are you warning "the town"? Are you not town? Why not "NOTE: Lowell is at L-1"? *HowardRoark braces for attacks*

That's silly. If Tajo is a godfather then he'd be fine with having drawn the investigation.

Thus the "drat" part of my post.

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

People, give some damn reasoning or there is no reason to listen to you.

YES!

People, Lowell is town, unvote him.

No, no he's not.

This is a very strong statement. Anything else to add to your case besides his lack of participation and defense of charter?

Why didnt Italians protect their Godfather night 1?

Perhaps they did and the doctor was killed first or there were multiple attempts on the GF. Remember that we only had those two kills N1 and four during N2.

Overall I am still happy with a Lowell lynch today. Even if he is town, his death will not hamper our odds that much. 2:5 tomorrow assuming 2 scum, town-Lowell death, and 1 NK. Also importantly, it will keep the more active players alive who are actually attempting to scum hunt.

NOTE: About 5 days until deadline.

[HowardRoark]

@Korts: Why were you willing to drop a hammer on Lowell, but switch to X with only a "I'm fairly comfortable with Seraphim's plan" statement?

@Lowell: Why is it that you are posting more often (although not of more quality) since the votes have swung away from you?

it's still idiotic to kill me, day or night

Why? I don't see any reason to not hang you.

As for Seraphim's plan . . . it's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure of its worth. What do we gain if X flips town? A confirmed Seraphim? I'd definitely like to hear a response from X.

[HowardRoark]

Sorry, but also . . .

@Seraphim: Why the switch to X? (Other than the Vig.)

[HowardRoark]

I was willing to hammer Lowell to avoid another No Lynch.

However, your vote on X actually put us into more of a no lynch situation. Your vote it moved Lowell down to L-2 and placed X at L-3 (Lowell makes it L-2).

Another question for you . . . how do you know that your bulletproof vest was used N0?

I also believe that the argument for the "[Italian] X attempt on Seraphim" would better explain the N1 results (2 dead Italians only) not the N0 results (where we seem to have quite a lack of kills).


@Seraphim: Why did you propose this plan and not vote X? Where is your vote?

@populartako: I appreciate your concern in choosing your vote wisely, but I'd like to see it sooner than later.

[HowardRoark]

@Korts: My mistake, I misread my vote chart. What do you think of . . .

I also believe that the argument for the "[Italian] X attempt on Seraphim" would better explain the N1 results (2 dead Italians only) not the N0 results (where we seem to have quite a lack of kills).

Seraphim & populartajo . . . where are you?

[HowardRoark]

I just finished showering and am heading to work. I will be around to do my best to avoid another no lynch.

[HowardRoark]

unvote
vote X

For the sake of a lynch.

[HowardRoark]

Sheeeesh!!

[HowardRoark]

I dont see 4 Italians- 4 Russians - 1 Sk against our dead and claimed roles.

Definitely not 4 Russians as we have 3 dead and are lacking some recent NKs for 4. However, I still believe that 4 Italians with only 2 dead is unlikely but possible. With 6 alive and a possible 2:2 tomorrow that has me contemplating the no lynch option.

I killed Lowell.

I investigated Lowell

These actions should have probably been coordinated before night began. The part that bothers me is in between these previous two quotes . . .

I suppose we wait and hope that he didn't investigate Lowell.

You gave scum(?)Kison an out if he hadn't thought of this.

I don't know about a no lynch today. I'd rather lynch today and then no lynch tomorrow if we need to.

If there are two Italians left, a mislynch today would result in a loss tomorrow.

Sadly, I don't see roflcopter breadcrumbing his results from Korts giving him a watcher ability to use N1. Rereading him in iso on D2 he was big on Seraphim possibly being Italian scum and questioning Cabose's (now Kison's) alignment. There was also a bit of charter questioning.

I am currently working through the different scenarios considering the 1 or 2 scum left, even number no lunch strategy, and possible Kison scum variables. I'll post my conclusions once that is complete. It's going to take some time, so don't hold your breath . . . but hopefully completed by tomorrow evening.

[HowardRoark]

vote ekiM

I believe that lynching ekiM is the way to go for today.

The no lynch option increases our odds of winning by 10% if we are seeking one scum; the increase is 7% if we are looking for two scum. Both of those statistics are based upon random lynches.

Kison can investigate Seraphim as he is NK immune and we won't have the same situation as we did with last nights actions crossing.

Thoughts?

[HowardRoark]

The odds are based on random lynches which makes them a bit less useful. Do you understand that a 7-10% increase is not that significant? This game cannot be played by straight odds alone. Do you realize that random lynches in the F11 setup with no doctors results in a 70% scum win chance? It's about play as well as odds.

[HowardRoark]

After an isolation read of ekiM and charter . . .

unvote
vote charter

iso1: votes OGB for his guess the alt game
iso 2: "I think Caboose, Seraphim, and OGB are all scumbuddies." no reasons
iso 3: "Add Mufasa to that triangle, and I get you a scum quartet." no reasons
iso 5: votes Mufassa still no reasons
iso 6: "Caboose is scum too by the way." no reasons
iso 8: "Prolly copied from the front page. Good catch. Lynch Mufasa, then lynch Caboose." uses another's reasons
iso 9: "Not only did he claim in his not first post of the day, but his claim has changed twice since he made it." finally a bit of his own reasoning
"I'm actually seeing Seraphim/Caboose as marginally scummier, but that's just splitting hairs at this point." no reasoning
"Keeping my vote on whichever of Seraphim and Mufasa currently has the most votes. Seraphim because he is definately scum, and Mufasa because if kept alive he will become a trainwreck and an unacceptable detriment to the town." no reason for Seraphim
iso 10: to Seraphim, "You'll get your case later when it's your turn to be lynched."
also a rehash of his lynch Mufassa campaign
iso 17: "Actually, inHim moves straight on up to full fledged scumbag. Has switched his vote in every single post, and I believe it was always for a current voteleader or someone under a lot of scrutiny. He has also contradicted himself pretty glaringly a few times that I see. I'll be pointing them out in a little bit." the best case he's brought forth (though the contradictions part was never explained) and no vote
iso 18: "271- Starbuck jumps off Mufasa after the wagon is getting some attention and stalling. Scummy post. Just jumps off, doesn't do anything else."
"Starbuck's response in 283 to legitimate points is incredibly scummy."
iso 19: "Starbuck is currently my second choice for a vote, but I'm not giving up hope just yet." and continues Mufassa campaign
iso 20: "inHim has cemented his position of scumbag with his latest post." yet still no vote
iso 21: throws a couple of scum team members ideas out there and switches to OGB
iso 24: follows roflcopter by going after Axelrod
iso 26: "I don't see what Seraphim has done as scummy as opposed to just bad." could this change be because a NK attempt on him failed?
iso 29: thanks whoever killed Mufassa
votes darkdude "for his last ditch attempt to save alvinz"
"Should rofl's mason buddy claim? I think he should." = role fishing
iso 30-32: provides reasons for mason partner to claim
iso 35: votes Seraphim for asking Caboose who he was going to investigate
is 36: votes darkdude, "darkdude is still obviously scum."
"Lynching Seraphim at the first chance after this I get though."

Currently thinking ekim or tajo is scum. Tajo's first read of everyone had both ThAd and inHim as prob town. For whatever reason, was devoid in lynching Alvinz.

ekim, his darkdude vote, 484, I feel like that was a giant pile of trying to fit in. He never mentioned inHim. He had this wierd addition to my back and forth with ThAd day one.

vote ekim

Think he's more likely to be scum.

iso 44: "X just jumped up in scumminess." no reason
iso 46: votes populartajo "720's- tajo claiming he's not suspicious of Caboose but leaving his vote on there. Also, he's doing more pointless setup speculation rather than giving us who he is suspicious of now. tajo is scum."

charter and I are mason buddies, though I cannot vouch for his towniness. Only mine.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, if anyone cares.

Name of the masonry.

Why do you think he is not town?

Also, charter please confirm, deny.

This guy is scum.

no reason
iso 52: "If someone else moves on to Spyrex, I could do a Spyrex lynch over a tajo lynch, but I'm not going to unvote yet, as that would help a Lowell lynch, which I'm 100% against." SpereX for parroting populartajo on not killing Caboose
iso 54: "It's either tajo or Spyrex or both. We need to be lynching them."
iso 55: restates case on populartajo
iso 59: defending Lowell as town
"I'm vanilla, except for being a neighbor with Lowell." a question, does your neighborhood have any abilities?
iso 63: votes SpyreX for setting up a chain lynch on him if Lowell flips town
iso 72: votes ekiM "Well, a vanilla doesn't mean anything, so process of elimination"
iso 73: "Don't like these Lowell votes one bit. He's town, I'm telling you guys."
iso 75: votes ekiM "Pretty much the only person left since I don't think Lowell is scum."

[HowardRoark]

(Sorry, but I was moved earlier -- and with more complications -- than expected.)

@charter: yesterday's analysis of you as to show how little you have done and what little you have said has been accusations without reasons. There is also the very definite thoughts on inHimshallibe, but no vote for him. Now you have voted Kison with Seraphim. What about your thoughts yesterday concerning ekiM?

I agree that this sudden block is beyond explanation.

This will be a town lynch, and we'll only one more fuckup after this.

Then how about doing a little scum hunting? Neither Caboose nor you have done a whole lot of that.

(I hope to be able to add more tonight, but I am attempting to catch up on my other games as well.)