Newbie 767 - Game Over!

[Cojin]

I am well aware I have placed him at L-1 But its an intresting test to say the least. As for others to suspect I am waiting for responces to the L-1.

[Cojin]

I also do realize the direct effect towards me if someone hammers him and he ends up townie

[Phelan]

Hmm, ok. If you say so.
How about the effect it would have on the rest of town?

Also, I forgot to ask, what's your experience level with Mafia? Have you played before on real life or other sites?

[Cojin]

I have played similer games elsewhere but new to this version, on this site.

I also know its impact on the rest of the town if he gets hammerd and is town. im on the fence of unvoting or not, but as it is just a game I want to see how this plays out.

[MordyS]

Not terribly shocking that Cojin's first move is to put me at L-1, especially being that I currently have the only vote on him. (Despite the fact that his predecessor hammered yesterday.)

Well, I didn't want to do this, and it's a terrible, terrible waste that I have to, but I guess that's how the cookie crumbles. I'm the doctor. Hopefully someone will unvote me before Cojin's partner in crime decides to hammer me.

[Cojin]

Unvote

Oh now you do play a clever game now dont you.

HOS: MordyS

[Cojin]

Sorry i forgot to add my reasonings.

I withdrew my vote so that on the chance you are truthfull we dont kill a power townie. I still hold My HOS over the fact that even scum may claim docter.

[MordyS]

As do you. Keep in mind, Cojin, that between the two of us, you're the only one who has hammered a Townie. And you were just about to try to lynch another one. Maybe it's time you try to explain your predecessor's positions and not just beg out because it'll make you look suspicious. You already look as suspicious as you possibly could.

[Cojin]

As it would be impossible to try to explain my predecessors positions, but as claimed before by wolf, vanilla townie all the way. As the hammering was not my actions i do very much disagree with it being done, and wish to belive that he did it in an honest mistake.

[Korlash]

Firstly If you are doctor I kinda wish the last scum would have hammered you so at least your claim will have caught us a scum.

Secondly

Unvote:

As do you. Keep in mind, Cojin, that between the two of us, you're the only one who has hammered a Townie. And you were just about to try to lynch another one. Maybe it's time you try to explain your predecessor's positions and not just beg out because it'll make you look suspicious. You already look as suspicious as you possibly could.

This is not a selling point. hammering a townie is a bad attack. He "quickly" hammered without reason. Try that one. That's a good attack. Continueing to push the fact he "hammered" a townie is not only suspicious of you but kinda annoying. I've hammered at least 20 town in my career, many of them as town myself. It in and of itself is not a valid attack.

As it would be impossible to try to explain my predecessors positions, but as claimed before by wolf, vanilla townie all the way. As the hammering was not my actions i do very much disagree with it being done, and wish to belive that he did it in an honest mistake.

It's true you cannot explian what he did but you can give us your opinion and take on it. You know his role, so you can at least make up some theory as to why he may or may not have done it. You pretty much did all of this in this post so no worries, just clearifying is all.

First and foremost lets go around for counterclaims. I am not the doctor. If there is a real doctor out there afraid to out himself, just do it. We take out a scum today and we only have one left. I never put too much faith in a doctor anyways, the best thing it does is scare the scum into killing their second choice instead of their first so it's not that big a loss as long as we hit scum today.

Well, I didn't want to do this, and it's a terrible, terrible waste that I have to, but I guess that's how the cookie crumbles. I'm the doctor. Hopefully someone will unvote me before Cojin's partner in crime decides to hammer me.

Let me try to do this in order.

Who did you protect? Do you have any breadcrumbs?

Secondly, am I to assume then that you feel everyone on your wagon aside from Cojin is town then?

[Archaist]

First of all I will

Unvote

, although I do so with reluctance. Claiming doctor is the best claim for mafia, since it's a good way to avoid getting lynched and the real doctor, if there is one, probably won't counter-claim since doing so would get themselves killed at night. In my opinion, a doctor shouldn't claim anything but vanilla unless we're at lynch or lose, or they're counter-claiming. The reason for this is that it gives the mafia a guaranteed power role kill at night, while claiming vanilla might sway the mafia to try someone else at night. Counter-claiming immediately catches a scum, so I think it would be worth it.

Firstly If you are doctor I kinda wish the last scum would have hammered you so at least your claim will have caught us a scum.

Not necessarily. Someone town could have hammered saying they didn't believe MordyS's claim. Also, lynching the doctor today would mean two townies die (one in the lynch, and one at night), where not lynching the doctor still gives us a chance to lynch a mafia today.

[delathi]

MordyS, you seem to have a trend toward saying that scum/townies/newbies have strong tendencies to act consistently with their roles. But on the other hand, you have been very up front and not at all remaining under the radar as a now-claimed doctor.

Do you still hold the assumptions that "Scum would act like this" when you yourself are not acting like the stereotypical Doctor? And how can we be sure that you are? Most of what I have read indicates that the doctor claim is most likely used by scum, since it is pretty much impossible to prove unless you are successful.

And on the other hand, how do we prove that he isn't? There is a 50% chance that, if he is lying, there is no one to counter claim.

Still suspicious but not voting yet. Now you are up to 3 and 3.

[delathi]

Is it fair to make assumptions about roles in a game based on the players coming and going?

Ie: Pretend for an instant that I could make an assumption that Vanilla Town players are more likely to give up on a game and need a replacement than Mafia players. (Maybe Vanilla players would be more bored, while Mafia players would be more engaged.) I then looked at the 'bit' that first Wolf and then Mikey filled and abandoned. Would it be fair to conclude that the 'bit' is a Vanilla Mafia bit, or is it not in the spirit of the game to try and deduce role by meta-information?

(I'm not saying the argument I'm making above is a valid one -- I'm just trying to illustrate my question.)

After re-reading, I'm finding this extremely suspicious.
You assume that Vanilla Town is more likely to get bored and dump the game, yet you yourself are a replacement for someone you are now claiming was not a Vanilla Townie?

I'm just not buying it.

Vote : MordyS

[Claus]

Vote Count

MordyS 1 - delathi
Cojin 1 - MordyS

Not Voting:

Platypus_Dude, Phelan, Delathi, Cojin, Korlash, Archaist

With 7 people alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[MordyS]

Ok, here's the situation. I don't know how this will go down, so I'm going to lay it out there and you can all take it as you will. (I waited a bit to explain this explicitly because I needed to confirm it with the mod.) I targeted Porkens for protection last night. I read that outspoken Townie players tend to get targeted with nightkills, and he was quite outspoken and - I felt - Townie. The nightkill did not go through, Porkens was successfully protected. And yet, Porkens is clearly dead, and hopefully at some later point, the exact reason why will come out. At the moment I've been told the mod cannot confirm or deny my story in the thread, so you'll have to take what I'm saying as is.

Now to take some other things:

Secondly, am I to assume then that you feel everyone on your wagon aside from Cojin is town then?

I'm suspicious of other people, but for various reasons, they haven't triggered enough of a suspicious to set things aside. It seems to me that Cojin/Wolf/Mikey are the most suspicious. Moreso, it seems to me that Mikey didn't get enough pressure after he hammered a townie with little explanation, and that Cojin isn't getting enough pressure now. I could envision a possibility that they are a collective group of poorly performing newbies, but it's certainly not at the top of the list of possibilities.

And on the other hand, how do we prove that he isn't? There is a 50% chance that, if he is lying, there is no one to counter claim.

This is poorly thought out. The reason claims are powerful is not because it could be true I'm the doctor. It's because if I were lying, I'd be taking a 50% chance that there WAS a doctor who would contradict me. Ie: It's 50% there's a doctor in the game, not 50% that I'm being honest. Most mafia wouldn't roll that die. Presumably someone making a claim with a 50% chance of being called out actually has a much higher than 50% chance of telling the truth. (Am I explaining this articulately enough? I'm kinda stumbling trying to explain the logic here...)

You assume that Vanilla Town is more likely to get bored and dump the game, yet you yourself are a replacement for someone you are now claiming was not a Vanilla Townie?

I didn't assume, and in fact explicitly said that I didn't trust the validity of my own argument "(I'm not saying the argument I'm making above is a valid one -- I'm just trying to illustrate my question.)" I was asking a question about whether that kind of meta information is fair play. I wasn't making an argument that Cojin is vanilla, and the proof is that I kept my vote on him. I still think he's the most suspicious person here, no matter how many times he's switched out.

I'm sure my first explanation here will raise more questions than it'll answer, and I'm sorry about that. I wish it were more straight-forward, but I'll try to answer anything you ask as honestly and as openly as I am able.

[MordyS]

[quote=delathi]MordyS, you seem to have a trend toward saying that scum/townies/newbies have strong tendencies to act consistently with their roles. But on the other hand, you have been very up front and not at all remaining under the radar as a now-claimed doctor.

Do you still hold the assumptions that "Scum would act like this" when you yourself are not acting like the stereotypical Doctor?[/quote]

Yes. I intentionally acted out of character. One, because I read that it was very in character for doctors to keep a low profile and so I was trying to subvert that -- hide in plain sight so to speak. It's my first game, so forgive me that it didn't work out as expected. Instead I drew fire and had to claim, and I imagine I'll be the NK tonight. I was hoping that I'd be able to explain away the votes on me before I got to L-1. I didn't count on Wolf/Cojin/Mikey shooting for another quick lynch.

Two, because it's not my style naturally. I imagine if I'm doctor in a future game that'll be something I'll have to subvert. I naturally like to participate and write long posts and be involved. I'm not good at hiding out and remaining under the radar. I imagine this is possibly why a lot of suspicion has been directed my way, because of how outspoken I've been. This is, by the way, the crux behind my argument that the most quiet people are the most suspicious. There ISN'T a lot of evidence against Platypus because honestly he doesn't participate that much. Mikey had the most actually suspicious action in this game to date, but there's barely been a murmur against him because he apologized profusely and remained under the radar. This is, by the way, why I'm not pointing the finger against Korlash. Though he's made numerous arguments against me that I felt were weak, he was also prolific in making them and put himself out there. I don't believe that people who write a lot above suspicion because I write a lot. I believe it because it makes logical sense to me.

As far as your question, delathi, just because I act out of character doesn't mean I believe everyone acts out of character. I still believe a Mafia player will hammer a Townie if he has the chance. It serves his winning condition. I think a Mafia player will obfuscate and generally try to obscure arguments, I think he'll try to keep himself below suspicion. These will all help him win. I don't see any reason to believe the opposite just because I didn't act like doctors are supposed to act.

[MordyS]

[quote=Archaist] In my opinion, a doctor shouldn't claim anything but vanilla unless we're at lynch or lose, or they're counter-claiming.[/quote]

It seems to me that a doctor that lies and claims vanilla town, and then later tries to claim doctor, is doing more detriment to the town than one that claims doctor right off. Clearly you disagree with this, though. Why?

[delathi]

And on the other hand, how do we prove that he isn't? There is a 50% chance that, if he is lying, there is no one to counter claim.

This is poorly thought out. The reason claims are powerful is not because it could be true I'm the doctor. It's because if I were lying, I'd be taking a 50% chance that there WAS a doctor who would contradict me. Ie: It's 50% there's a doctor in the game, not 50% that I'm being honest. Most mafia wouldn't roll that die. Presumably someone making a claim with a 50% chance of being called out actually has a much higher than 50% chance of telling the truth. (Am I explaining this articulately enough? I'm kinda stumbling trying to explain the logic here...)

The 50/50 chance is one that may be worth the risk if scum is about to be hammered. It would be foolish to make the claim unless there was already a big risk of being lynched, and at L-1, I would assume it worth the shot.

I also wasn't meaning to say that there was a 50% chance you are or are not the doctor due to your claim. I was saying that

if

you are lying scum, there is a 50% chance for a real doctor to exist as a counter claim and a 50% chance that no one can reasonably dispute your doctor claim.

[Archaist]

It seems to me that a doctor that lies and claims vanilla town, and then later tries to claim doctor, is doing more detriment to the town than one that claims doctor right off. Clearly you disagree with this, though. Why?

If lying reduces the chance of the doctor getting night killed, then that is not a detriment to the town. Claiming doctor after claiming vanilla would be easily explainable by such a reason.

[MordyS]

That only makes sense if claiming vanilla townie would protect oneself from being lynched, but it seems to me that claim is basically worthless. So the Doctor would be protecting themselves from a NK by exposing themselves to a lynch, no?

[Korlash]

This is poorly thought out. The reason claims are powerful is not because it could be true I'm the doctor. It's because if I were lying, I'd be taking a 50% chance that there WAS a doctor who would contradict me. Ie: It's 50% there's a doctor in the game, not 50% that I'm being honest. Most mafia wouldn't roll that die. Presumably someone making a claim with a 50% chance of being called out actually has a much higher than 50% chance of telling the truth. (Am I explaining this articulately enough? I'm kinda stumbling trying to explain the logic here...)

You shouldn't speak about things you don't know. Most, in fact ALL, mafia would roll that dice. You were at what, L-1? Any scum would fakeclaim doctor. 50% shot they get a lynch free pass and 50% the doctor is outed. it's a win/win. Fakeclaiming Doctor and Fakeclaiming Cop are almost garenteed when scum claims unless those roles have already been outed. Someone who claims a role that has a 50% chance of being in the game doesn't get a % of how likely he is lying. That % is based on his own play, not the odds.

I didn't assume, and in fact explicitly said that I didn't trust the validity of my own argument "(I'm not saying the argument I'm making above is a valid one -- I'm just trying to illustrate my question.)" I was asking a question about whether that kind of meta information is fair play. I wasn't making an argument that Cojin is vanilla, and the proof is that I kept my vote on him. I still think he's the most suspicious person here, no matter how many times he's switched out.

It doesn't matter is you ere or were not making the argument that you thought he was vanilla, the fact is you made an argument question the validity of something you yourself are an example it is not. The fact you would ask a question like that after KNOWING a doctor was replaced brings doubt to your claim.

It seems to me that a doctor that lies and claims vanilla town, and then later tries to claim doctor, is doing more detriment to the town than one that claims doctor right off. Clearly you disagree with this, though. Why?

You are right here. No town power role should ever lie about his role unless he knows he will be able to explain it. I wouldn't advise even trying such a move until you have more experience under your belt. If you are the doctor you did at least do right in claiming it and not vanilla.

If lying reduces the chance of the doctor getting night killed, then that is not a detriment to the town. Claiming doctor after claiming vanilla would be easily explainable by such a reason.

No it wouldn't. If you tried this stunt in a newbie game you would be lynched the second you tried to claim doctor. The fact you had to claim means you obviously were under suspicion, you add lying to that and then have another player play the fishing for a safeclaim route and your dead asap. Add to that the fact most vanilla claims will end with a lynch anyways and you go from a night of a doctor to a lynch of a doctor, a much worse fate.

Ok, here's the situation. I don't know how this will go down, so I'm going to lay it out there and you can all take it as you will. (I waited a bit to explain this explicitly because I needed to confirm it with the mod.) I targeted Porkens for protection last night. I read that outspoken Townie players tend to get targeted with nightkills, and he was quite outspoken and - I felt - Townie. The nightkill did not go through, Porkens was successfully protected. And yet, Porkens is clearly dead, and hopefully at some later point, the exact reason why will come out. At the moment I've been told the mod cannot confirm or deny my story in the thread, so you'll have to take what I'm saying as is.

This is a very important part. In my mind this could be the game breaker. If you are the doctor, then this means the mafia have a RB. It also means they are freaking lucky. We can thusly assume we have a cop. So, let me do some math...

7 players... still too early. so let's keep the cop if we have on quiet and let's assume you are the doctor. I love gambling.

Vote: Archaist

Why bother with formalities I'm just going to be direct. Are you scum?

[Archaist]

Add to that the fact most vanilla claims will end with a lynch anyways and you go from a night of a doctor to a lynch of a doctor, a much worse fate.

I see your point here.

Why bother with formalities I'm just going to be direct. Are you scum?

No. Are you?

[Cojin]

Muzzz - 5 - Platypus_Dude, Korlash, Archaist, Porkens, Mickey77

Now im going to play a random odds game here. Givin that the likely hood of one of these people being scum is increased having the first lynch be on a townie. Porkens was NK so hes out and Mickey77 noobed out so Im out.

That leaves platypus_Dude, Korlash, and Archaist.

Now in the recent conversation have it being a very possible Town vs town. The only one out of that to not speak, thus not raising suspicion is platypus_Dude.

Platypus_Dude. speak up.

Vote: Platypus_Dude

[Korlash]

No. Are you?

No, but oddly enough when I say it I'm not lying...

[Cojin]

Platys last post was may4th

Mod prod?