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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:08 am

Post by AA23 »

Khamisa-

What would I be covering up? I stated how many villains I felt were part of two scenarios that involved 5 people including myself - - Mixologist thought I was stating there were 4 villains in the whole town, and misunderstood I was referring to the scenario's I posted.
Mixologist wrote:Are you only saying four because you yourself are a scum AA? Slip?

Clearly there are five villains in this game as per post, oh I don't know, 1.
The scenario was about 5 voters - - I said 4 were villans - - technically the slip would be me suggesting I'm town.

I think you should be more careful in your re read.

You not only misunderstood what you tried to pin on me - - you misunderstood what you tried to pin on Zwet.

He said he felt special because of what was posted just before - - The Mod had accidetally put him in the vote count twice.

------------
Now do you mind conducting a proper re-read and coming back with something we can use?



Vote Count

zwetschenwasser 4 - Khamisa, dejkha, Percy, AshMC1984
AA23 1 - Gorckat
Ash 1 - Mixologist
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:11 am

Post by AA23 »

and not to poke at you too much, but the post Im referring to, where you seemed to miss in the re-read why Zwet felt special and later twisted into him feeling special for something scummy?

It was your post....
Khamisa wrote:
Mod: There are two zwetschenwassers in the vote count.


I'm all over it
yeah...
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:14 am

Post by dejkha »

I just thought of something after reading Dust's last post. Ace and Zwet to me, do have a higher probability of being scum (and likely partners) than everyone else. Ace claims that in every game he's seen Dust as scum, he would always use the same method of stopping the random voting phase. I mean, that's some pretty concrete evidence. If his apparent knowledge of Dust's scum meta was that much of a giveaway, a Seer claim wouldn't be enough to remove his vote with almost no one left on the wagon. He also said that no CC made Dust's claim more believable, even though he acknowledged how a CC should happen.

And Zwet instantly went along with Ace and voted Dust due to Ace's claim of Dust's scum meta that could not be backed up at all or proved in any way. While they're both likely scum partners at the point, I find Zwet more suspicious since he could've done that with Ace being town.

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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:29 am

Post by AceMarksman »

dej: Mind you I've only seen him in one game as scum, but he started it the same way.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:35 am

Post by dejkha »

So you purposefully tried to make people think he did this in multiple games as scum to help build a wagon on him? That's scummy also.
AceMarksman wrote:I have seen dust in
other games
(not on this site) playing as scum, and
in every one
where he is scum, he starts
exactly
like this. Things to note: stifling of the RVS, which he supports when he's town, being quick to FoS but slow to vote etc.
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 10:40 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

Um... I posted I feel special as a joke about the votecount having two zwets...
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 11:21 am

Post by Khamisa »

AA23: Oh, I didn't read the situations correctly. And I also got the zwetschenwasser situation wrong as well. I thought the "I feel special" comment was applying to the fact that you weren't answering Percy's question.
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 12:55 pm

Post by AA23 »

No worries - -

Let's just keep broad thinking - - Lets have some more theories at least - sound ones, everyone!
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 2:22 pm

Post by Percy »

Just posted in my other games, but I'm out of time. Will post later today, tomorrow at the latest.
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 2:46 pm

Post by gorckat »

Percy wrote:
Unvote

Not willing to let scum hammer the Seer without a complete re-read to reaffirm or alleviate my suspicions.
Afraid of a hammer after two people ahead of this post unvoted?

dejkha wrote:I don't think there's any harm, in saying this, but I'm thinking either Zwet or Dust could be a werewolf. Dust, if he's lying, for obvious reasons (trying to out the seer) or Zwet for pretty much also trying to out the seer when town would only be at a disadvantage if that was done.
If zwet is a wolf, then so is Dust under the scenario you posit. Why would he, as a wolf, need to convince the seer to counter once he knows who the seer is?

My next readthrough wil be players in isolation. Something in AA's admittance to the Dust case being trivial needs more scrutiny (if I'm remembering the post correctly- I'm beat.)
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 3:29 pm

Post by Mixologist »

AA23 wrote:2. If Dust were mafia, could the wagon have been all towny and both wolves (hence no quickhammer as mafia would not kill their own?
Dust isn't mafia. Why would he purposefully out himself as the towns only power role knowing that he would be NK'ed that night.
AA23 wrote:3. Why would Dust specifically claim seer? In a scenario where there is one power role, would it not be more responsible to claim towny/not scum? That way, you're not really lying, nor are you setting yourself up for a nightkill anyhow and thus defeating the purpose - - I'm actually asking, I'm not familiar with the ethics behind claiming
If he claimed vanilla, he would probably have been lynched. In this set-up losing a vanilla on day one would not hit so hard as losing the seer day one.
AA23 wrote:A way to find out the truth would be gambling and lynching him, but that would be wildly redundant if the claim holds true, so I almost feel like that's out.
Why mention it then? Dust is
not
an option to lynch. At least not today. Either he really is the seer and he's dead tonight, or he's not the seer in which case tomorrow he will be re-evaluated.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 5:27 pm

Post by Percy »

Just re-read.
dejkha 114 wrote:Scum force the the person to claim by putting them at L-1 this early.
Claiming Seer is the only thing to do to save your skin, but you'll be caught out eventually if you're lying. I don't think this scumtactic works in this set up.
AA23 146 wrote:Why would Dust specifically claim Seer?
As scum, he (potentially) takes a townie out with him if he claims a guilty tomorrow. It's better than claiming vanilla and hoping the town pulls out of the wagon.

I would be very surprised if the Dust wagon contained no scum, and of those, I would say AA is towniest, Ash, Ace and Empking give me almost no read, and zwet appears scum.

However, post 153 earns my
Vote: Ace
(LAL) for the reasons stated in 154.
gorckat 159 wrote:Afraid of a hammer after two people ahead of this post unvoted?
Poorly phrased, but what I wanted to make clear was that I was unvoting because of the claim. I didn't know how long my re-read would take, and if it picked up speed again, I was not willing to be a part of it.

However, I'll just requote this:
Percy 105 wrote:
gorkat 77 wrote:Ah- you're saying I was the person Dust was jumping on with. That wasn't clear the way AA23 was posting- he left out names so I didn't see it was my own vote he was referring to.
Still, you were the only one voting for AA23. I don't see how much confusion not posting names would cause.
...to emphasise that you did not respond.
FoS: gorkat
.


In case it's not obvious, Dust is not the lynch today. If he's Mafia or Town, the wolves will eat him. If he's a Wolf, then we'll figure it out later once he starts claiming results, and we'll also have a counterclaim at some point.


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AA23
Mix (gut)
dej (gut)

Null reads:
Ash
Dust (due to claim)
Empking
Khamisa

Scum reads:
zwet
Ace
gorkat
hewitt (gets scum read on AA23, which I flatly disagree with. Very minor, however - waiting on response)
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 5:30 pm

Post by AA23 »

Mixologist wrote:
AA23 wrote:2. If Dust were mafia, could the wagon have been all towny and both wolves (hence no quickhammer as mafia would not kill their own?
Dust isn't mafia. Why would he purposefully out himself as the towns only power role knowing that he would be NK'ed that night.

AA23 wrote:A way to find out the truth would be gambling and lynching him, but that would be wildly redundant if the claim holds true, so I almost feel like that's out.
Why mention it then? Dust is
not
an option to lynch
1. My thought on the Dust being mafia, both wolves on the wagon, and no mafia quicklynching their own is still valid - - the reason he would (as mafia) out himself as seer isn't to set himself up for a nightkill - - it's actually a genius move to allow a mislynch AND double your chances of NKing the real seer - - think about it - - why go down as scum on a day 1 lynch when you can claim "seer" and have the real one CC (NK in the bag) and convince us to go and mislynch someone from the wagon (mafia then get two excellent deaths on their hands)

It's actually a very sound theory.

2. The reason I mentioned the redundant statement was so that it would be understood why I was taking my vote off. Right after the part you quoted. Easily seen. If read further ahead. Carefully. So not to misunderstand quotes. Again. And again.

------------------

I think my theory is sound and worth investigating.

Dust being scum - - calling seer to coax the real one out (juicy NK) and throw a lynch from him to a mislynch on a towny from the wagon.

He lived because both werewolves were on the wagon and no scum wanted to lynch their own - hence no quicklynch hammer.

Sounds pretty tight to me so far.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 11:46 pm

Post by dejkha »

Mixologist wrote:Dust isn't mafia. Why would he purposefully out himself as the towns only power role knowing that he would be NK'ed that night.
If he's a werewolf, then it's perfectly easy to see why: try to out your biggest threat. So if he's a werewolf, he'll still be alive tomorrow.
AA wrote:1. My thought on the Dust being mafia, both wolves on the wagon, and no mafia quicklynching their own is still valid - - the reason he would (as mafia) out himself as seer isn't to set himself up for a nightkill - - it's actually a genius move to allow a mislynch AND double your chances of NKing the real seer - - think about it - - why go down as scum on a day 1 lynch when you can claim "seer" and have the real one CC (NK in the bag) and convince us to go and mislynch someone from the wagon (mafia then get two excellent deaths on their hands)
There's absolutely no reason the Mafia would want to kill the seer. All he does is see whether someone is a werewolf or not. The seer is no threat to mafia whatsoever. In fact, the seer helps them by seeking out their biggest threat: the werewolves. Fake claiming Seer as Mafia makes no sense.
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2009 11:47 pm

Post by gorckat »

Percy wrote:However, I'll just requote this:
Percy 105 wrote:
gorkat 77 wrote:Ah- you're saying I was the person Dust was jumping on with. That wasn't clear the way AA23 was posting- he left out names so I didn't see it was my own vote he was referring to.
Still, you were the only one voting for AA23. I don't see how much confusion not posting names would cause.
...to emphasise that you did not respond.
FoS: gorkat
.
What in anything I said makes you think I forgot I was voting for AA23, and that it was to make him take a stance on RVS?
You ask a question - I answer it - someone votes me for my answer - you join in and express suspicion toward me
That's what I quoted orginally and asked him for post numbers, and I hadn't assumed I was the only person voting him.

He could've said, with eihter of the square bracketed items below and I would've instantly realized it was my vote he referred to:
You ask a question [about the RVS] - I answer it - [
someone
gorckat] votes me for my answer - you join in and express suspicion toward me
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 12:52 am

Post by Mixologist »

AA23 wrote:1. My thought on the Dust being mafia, both wolves on the wagon, and no mafia quicklynching their own is still valid....(mafia then get two excellent deaths on their hands)

It's actually a very sound theory.
No it's not. The seer helps out the Mafia as much as it helps the town out for right now. If for some reason we go back to back lynches on Wolves, then the seer becomes just another person in the way for the Mafia.

So no, outing himself as seer would be horrible play if he is Mafia. It essentially guarantees his death tonight, and if we lynch a Mafia today, then they are in a bad position to start off the game.

I also don't like how you keep bringing up the possibility that there is going to be a counter claim. There won't be.
dejhkha wrote:If he's a werewolf, then it's perfectly easy to see why: try to out your biggest threat. So if he's a werewolf, he'll still be alive tomorrow.
That's the point I'm trying to convey here. There is no logical explanation for why Dust, as Mafia, would out himself as the seer. It doesn't, however, rule out the possibility of him being Wolf.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 1:22 am

Post by dejkha »

Mixologist wrote:That's the point I'm trying to convey here. There is no logical explanation for why Dust, as Mafia, would out himself as the seer. It doesn't, however, rule out the possibility of him being Wolf.
My mistake, I misunderstood what you were saying.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 1:39 am

Post by AA23 »

Mixologist, I'm not saying there's a counterclaim on the way - I'm paraphrasing a possible thought process that the scum would have under pressure and leading up to why they WOULD claim seer, what they would hope for**

Mix/Dej - - I know what seer means to us, but when you're asked to claim, you're at L-1, and you're a villain - are you honestly going to tell me there's a better thing to claim to stay alive?

You said it yourself, claiming town, vanilla, not scum - it's not enough. Why is it so crazy Mafia would choose to claim seer in a time of need?

And furthermore, it wouldn't matter - - the theory is still sound - - whether the intention is there or not, Dust could be mafia and both wolves on the wagon - which would explain why no mafia has quicklynched their own and the hammer didn't drop.

The above - please comment.

The theory is still sound for those two points. And for a third point - Seer is still a mafia target whether early in the game or late - just another number to kill off.
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:34 am

Post by Mixologist »

Ok, I believe I understand where you are coming from.

Now how about putting your little theory to work instead of just discussing it. Who on the wagon do you think is Wolves and to that extent who off the wagon do you think is Mafia?
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:53 am

Post by AA23 »

Discussing it is how I put it to work - otherwise we risk hunting lynches instead of scum which happens too often on this site.

A responsible course of action is to hear everyone else out and know where they stand.

There will be two kinds of people -

The first group will have an idea or thought to bring to the table on what to do and why (who to lynch, evidence, questions) - their mini objectives like those will inform us of their superobjectives and help us make a calculated decision.

The second group will be tagging along, asking other people to pipe up
without
giving their own opinions, thoughts, and answers - - they will also inform us.

But to keep solid decision making up to three or four larger/more frequent posters is rushy and risks a mislynch.

In three days people will be more relaxed from exams and have time to get back to us. I've shared my thoughts, am open minded to many other possibilities, and await other input
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:56 am

Post by Mixologist »

So you're of the second group then?
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 2:58 am

Post by Mixologist »

Meaning, that since the entire Dust case you drew up you haven't really done anything except talk theory and speculate on numbers. So are you waiting on others because you don't have an idea of who might or might not be? Or are you waiting to say, yeah that's what I am thinking too.
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 3:17 am

Post by dejkha »

Ok, I see what you mean, AA. But still, Dust claiming as Mafia has it's pros and cons. Pros being he stays alive for the day and attracts a NK, leaving the real Seer to do his job, which benefits town and mafia. Cons being, he could've potentially outed the real Seer and there would've been one less mafia member (keep in my these are pros and cons from his PoV).

This is all if he's fakeclaiming though. He may be the real seer and this talk could be meaningless. Instead of talking about "if"s for now (which we've done enough of), we should talk about how people have reacted to the claim, which AA has been doing a pretty good job of. Here's my list of people on the wagon.

Scum Read:


Ace - For trying to mislead the town into thinking Dust has used an apparent scum meta in multiple games whenever he was scum. This was proven as a lie when Ace said that this only happened once when he was later called on it. Reference to posts 152 to 154

Zwet - Obviously for trying to get a counterclaim. I'm thinking a very likely werewolf.

Emp - Only loosely though, because of post 106 where he asks for a claim and tells people not to CC if he claims Seer. Like someone else said, he could've been communicating with a partner. That partner obviously being Dust. I'd also say possible werewolf.

AshMC1984 - He's made 4 short game relevant posts out of the 172 that have been made. What's there to say? Lurking scum? He unvoted after Dusts claim (his vote remained there from the RVS and he apparently never got around to changing it) and votes Zwet for voting without good reasons and trying to get a CC. He, however, doesn't mention Ace, who had the same reason for voting Dust as Zwet.

Town/ No Read:


AA23 - AA has been seemed pretty town to me in the sense that he hasn't done anything scummy that I remember, and has been generally telling us all with good reasons, who could be scum on the wagon as well as providing different possibilities.

Percy - Hasn't done much of anything scummy, but at the same time, nothing much pro-town either.

Possible Scum Pairs


Zwet/ Ace Werewolfs (Most likely) - Supported in posts 152 and 154.

Ace/ Ash Mafia (Possible)- Ash ignores Ace's reason for voting Dust, but doesn't ignore Zwet, who used the same reasoning.

Emp/ Dust Werewolves - Emp asked Dust to claim and mentions how a Seer shouldn't CC should that be the claim. If this were the pairing, it could be for two reasons. He hints at Dust to claim Seer and it would also keep his partner alive while making it look like he's keeping the towns best interest in mind.

Hopefully, when people have time, we'll have more opinions.
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 3:37 am

Post by AA23 »

Mixologist wrote:So you're of the second group then?
I'm going to be patient with you because I've had my own slip ups when developing skill in this game - - but for the last time, read carefully - - I even took the time to put italics on a word in the very category you're trying to put me under.

I've got no eggs in the basket on this one, if I've had a thought, I've proposed it - - After I made a choice to unvote, gave reasons, and exhausted several speculations, you seem to think that I haven't shared ideas?

Mixer - I'm expressing that we need to hear from everyone else and that they will either offer something new, take action and back it up, or be followers - - all of which will inform us.
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Tue May 12, 2009 3:38 am

Post by AA23 »

@Dej - Given the connecting of pairs I can understand where you see Dust as wolf
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