Mini 167 - Les Miserables Mafia. Game over!

[LoudmouthLee]

Unless, of course, you two are mafia.

Which, at this time, is MY best guess.

Unvote: CB, Vote: Gootentag

[Mr Stoofer]

My gut reaction is that vikingfan and CB are not anti-town. The idea of them being anti-town just doesn't work for me, especially since their strategy of claiming to be pro-town masons would be hugely dangerous on Day 1 (the moment one dies, their alignment will be revealed and the other will be lynched).

I think LML has a point. I think it surprising that either are still suspicious of vikingfan and CB and more surprising that they are

both

still pursuing them.

FOS: gootentag & LordKrishna

with a vote to follow unless anyone can suggest a better candidate.

[Changling bob]

<snip>I can’t see why you would reveal the “incite revolution” ability if it were anti-town, but I’ll admit that I find it slightly ominous. I don’t think you should reveal what it is, though.<snip>

I

don't know what the ability is, and I'm unwilling to use it as it sounds like it may be potentially dangerous for the town.

Question: Did you recruit vikingfan, or were you initially linked together?

We were initially linked.

In this case, we don't know if this means a Pro-Town win or not. Perhaps if the Masons win, BOTH the Mafia and the Town lose...?

My role clearly states I win when the town wins.

I don't know what happens if I try to recruit scum, but I'd rather avoid doing so if at all possible

FoS: gootentag and LordKrishna

for exactly the same reason as Mr Stoofer.

I'm going to hang back on voting either until they say something or one becomes more apparently scummy than the other.

[gootentag]

At the moment, I am not persuing anybody. I merely stated something I thought might be a valid concern or possibility for the setup. It's not outguessing the mod, it's theorizing what we might be up against. That's how this game is played, right?

Like the Wiki said, a cult can be pro town - I just see it being too strong a mechanic in so small a setup to be viable in either situation: scum or not. That means they are either lying and probably scum or the setup is unbalanced in favor of whichever side they are on. I am by no means ruling out the second possibility as a pro-town cult, but reviewing those three choices:

1 - they are lying about their ability and are scum,
2 - they are telling the truth about their roles and are town,
3 - they are telling the truth about their roles and are scum,

each one is a possibility. I'm not comfortable with that mechanic in a game this size is all. It seems too much to define the outcome of the game in and of itself. That's why I was voicing my concerns. If anyone has any further possible leads, I would be just as prone to scrutinize them the same way.

[Changling bob]

1 - they are lying about their ability and are scum,
2 - they are telling the truth about their roles and are town,
3 - they are telling the truth about their roles and are scum,

As Mr Stoofer pointed out, if we were anti-town, claiming would be a really bad plan as it would mean that as soon as one of us is killed, the other will get lynched.

I agree that with this on the town side, the scum side probably has some advantage we haven't heard about yet, but that can only be left to the realms of speculation for now.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm going away for Easter (which is a 4 day holiday in the UK) so I won't be posting again until Monday evening GMT.

[LordKrishna]

I have no affiliation with gootentag, or indeed with any other member of the town.

The idea of them being anti-town just doesn't work for me, especially since their strategy of claiming to be pro-town masons would be hugely dangerous on Day 1 (the moment one dies, their alignment will be revealed and the other will be lynched).

No, it wouldn't be dangerous to them -- remember, vikingfan was in mortal peril, so by revealing his mason group, he saved his own life. That was a good play on his part, if he's not scum. My question is not whether he is scum, but whether the Mason group has a different aim than the town. Vikingfan has not answered this (to my knowledge).

...surprising that they are both still pursuing them.

Stoofer, where do you see me pursuing anyone? I had only made ONE post about this Mason group (not including my "WTF? Gootetag is posting something similar at the same time?!" post).

I am not terribly suspicious of VF and CB being Mafia (unless they cooked up an elaborate plan beforehand ), but I just don't understand this Mason thing very well (having never seen it before). As only two other players have weighed in with their answers --

and one of them is an accused party

-- I don't really think I have a lot to go on, in the way of an answer. I tend to be suspicious of 'Weird' roles, and what's more weird than a secret society? Therefore, I'm not yet willing to vote for someone else. Again, it doesn't look to me that vikingfan is in any danger of being lynched at present, so my vote stays until I have reason to pull it off (to go elsewhere).

It strikes me that my real question is: Is our only goal to hunt down Mafia, or to also eliminate other possibly adverse influences on the town? If it's only Mafia, then I say we keep looking elswehere, as they're no likely to be scum. If we should also be taking down Zombies, Cults, Were-Rats, etc., then we should continue to mull the new information we have about the Mason group until we have a decision.

To prove that I'm not scum, I would be willing to vote for anyone at all (again, I am unwilling to vote without a good reason to do so, and no one seems overtly Mafia just now, so I want to get everyone's thoughts on the matter -- MeMe and EmpTyger have not yet weighed in on this topic, and I'd like to hear their thoughts as well).

-K

[vikingfan]

Lord-masons are very common in mafia games-just ask mathcam, MeMe, or any one of several other experienced scum players.

As for my alignment, I have already stated that I am pro-town.

[MeMe]

I'm pretty confused about what I'm being asked to weigh-in on.

[EmpTyger]

I don’t see anything suspicious about questioning the mason claim. I personally saw no harm in accepting it for today. If it were true, they would be a powerful tool; if false, then we could lynch as easily tomorrow; and tonight’s events may make the determination easier.

However, I feel I might have made some misassumptions. I now am starting to think that the mason ability as presented seems too powerful to be plausible. Starting off with 2 masons combined with the ability to recruit would have meant that they had a good chance of forming a majority by Day 2. (For that matter, then why wasn’t anyone recruited last night?) Plus they can function as a limited cop. And that’s not getting into the mysterious “incite revolution”. I can’t really believe that all this would fit into the game.

Can someone check my math? Do we have to decide the mason issue today?


Stoofer:

My gut reaction is that vikingfan and CB are not anti-town. The idea of them being anti-town just doesn't work for me, especially since their strategy of claiming to be pro-town masons would be hugely dangerous on Day 1 (the moment one dies, their alignment will be revealed and the other will be lynched).

I’m not really sure this is what happened: bob didn’t come forward until the point where if he didn’t, vikingfan’s claim would be obviously false.

I think LML has a point. I think it surprising that either are still suspicious of vikingfan and CB and more surprising that they are

both

still pursuing them.<snip>

May I turn this around: Why *aren’t* you suspicious that those claiming masons might be lying?


vikingfan:

<snip>As for my alignment, I have already stated that I am pro-town.

Um, can you think of any situation where a player would *not* admit that they are pro-town? Just because you say that you are doesn’t mean anything. I’d think mafia members’ hiding the fact that they’re anti-town would be much more common than masons...

[Changling bob]

<snip>(For that matter, then why wasn’t anyone recruited last night?)<snip>

I didn't want to recruit a scum, which random recruiting could have done. I didn't get many times to log on while we were in night 1. From what I did discuss with vikingfan, he said he had some kind of cop role. I thought that if each night we investigated someone, then if they're town we recruit them, and if they're scum we move to lynch them. As the recruiting would have to be delayed by a night, I didn't want to strike out at random incase we ended up with scum in our midsts, who if they didn't get investigated may have ended up hidden under our noses until the endgame.

[vikingfan]

I'm pretty confused about what I'm being asked to weigh-in on.

LK was stating that he was confused about the whole mason thing since he hasn't seen it before and he considered a masonry suspicious.

[MeMe]

Is that, indeed, the subject about which you were asking, LK? Seems odd, if so. Why would you need everyone to comment on something easily answered by one?

[EmpTyger]

There's a seems to be a slight lull in posting, but because it is Easter weekend I don’t think it's significant. I want to reread the thread before commenting further. (ie: "back tomorrow")

[LordKrishna]

Is that, indeed, the subject about which you were asking, LK? Seems odd, if so. Why would you need everyone to comment on something easily answered by one?

No, of course not. Vikingfan has misread (or is misconstruing) my question, which is evident in my last post:

It strikes me that my real question is: Is our only goal to hunt down Mafia, or to also eliminate other possibly adverse influences on the town?

I was also asking what people had seen in other Mafia games involving a Mason group -- to me, the entire concept of a 'secret society' seems only 1 brief step away from that of the Mafia. Therefore, I wonder if the Masons might in fact have a different goal in mind from that of the town. After all, the town wishes to live in peace and harmony in La Belle France, whereas these revolutionaries may wish to 'incite revolution'. I am simply worried that in ignoring the existence of these two, potentially also dangerous men, we will be trying to seek out one threat, while we allow another into our very hearts!

Of course, something no one has yet brought up is that it may also be possible that the Masons ARE our power roles... Unless we have a doctor or cop (and while we might suspect that there is a Javert cop, or maybe a non-Javert cop,

no one

has mentioned a possible doctor, IMHO). In this case, we'd

want

to have them around as long as possible...

So, MeMe, as a more experienced (and if I'm not mistaken, the most experienced) player here, would you mind telling me if it seems feasible, given the setup of the game, that the Masons might be another non-Town-aligned faction, or that they might BE the power roles we have?

-K

[MeMe]

Here's the thing, LK -- masons have come to mean next-to-nothing on this board (which I consider a real shame). It used to be that when someone claimed mason they were automatically left alone for at least a day because it's such a strong, provable, pro-town claim. Macros introduced the concept of mixed-alignment groups in Normal #15 and they've been used several times since (twice in games I've played: Min4 & Christmas).

That said -- a pro-town mason team in a 9-person game is

very

(almost too?) strong. A pro-town team with recruitment/searching/revolution-starting powers seems stronger still. And yet, an anti-town team with the powers they claim in a game this small is even

less

likely as scum need only to get majority numbers while the rest of us must eradicate scum completely. Basically, if they were both scum, why would they admit/invent all of the powers they claim? I believe they'd have said "masons" and left it at that.

In my opinion, their claims say to me that one or both of them are pro-town. If they're both pro-town, their powers are probably dangerous. Perhaps if Eponine finds Cosette, Ep dies (as she did in book). Perhaps if they incite a revolution, something horrible happens...I have to guess that what seems like strength is actually danger or the game's out of whack. If only one of them is town, well -- their powers could just be "as is," but benefiting the scum as much as they do the town.

All of this is speculation and "don't outguess the mod" seems a prudent mantra on Day 1. If I were the sole decision-maker, I'd take both of the masons off of the "to lynch" list today since I don't think it makes sense for them both to be scum...but I'd certainly keep a close eye on them and read morning reports with their claimed abilities in mind.

[LordKrishna]

Thanks, MeMe for the insightful commentary. These are all good reasons to take my vote off.

UNVOTE

-K

[Aelyn]

Noting that the crowd seemed to be milling around, Monsieur Hugo gets to his feet. Just as he clears his throat, LordKrishna takes his arm and whispers something in his ear. Noting the change, the venerable writer-to-be stands and announces the current vote totals.

EmpTyger - 1 (vikingfan)

Gootentag

- 2 (MeMe, LoudmouthLee)

Not voting: Changling Bob, Gootentag, LordKrishna, Mr Stoofer, Emptyger.

8 alive, 5 to lynch.

He then reminds the town that he is fallible, and would appreciate their help in correcting him should he turn out to be incorrect about the voting to date.

[EmpTyger]

[Aelyn: I think I should have been listed under “Not voting” in [142]? I’m assuming this is just the alleged fallibility of yours...]


Argh-
During the day my mind wanders to the game. The more I think about the mason claim the less I believe it. But I think that regardless of the suspicion it is not worth the risk of lynching one of them today. And this seems to be a general consensus. And I think we can afford to wait and see if the claim is made clearer tomorrow.

It seems that there are 2 others who are generally viewed as suspicious: gootentag and Krishna. gootentag has the 2 votes on him, and both have a collection of FoSs. (I suppose technically I should count myself, since I do have a vote on me; but that seems like a vestige of an abandoned bandwagon. vikingfan?) Most of the attention seems to be because they aren’t being completely accepting of the mason claim- though as that is the position I myself am taking, I don’t think that that is suspicious in and of itself.

Having said that:


gootentag:
You don’t seem to be saying anything *wrong*, but your only contributions feel like you’re only here to merely play devil’s advocate. Which, while still of value, still feels incomplete, like you’re trying to avoid committing to anything. You somehow have 2 votes on you, yet you haven’t even cast a vote yet.

I’m not thrilled to cast a vote for anyone based on any of my current reasonings, but I’ve got to start somewhere. And since it’s already been started on you, I may as well continue there. I can't speak for MeMe's reasoning, and I don't yet agree with LML's, but I think you can at least address my concerns.

Vote: gootentag

Krishna:

To prove that I'm not scum, I would be willing to vote for anyone at all (again, I am unwilling to vote without a good reason to do so, and no one seems overtly Mafia just now, so I want to get everyone's thoughts on the matter -- MeMe and EmpTyger have not yet weighed in on this topic, and I'd like to hear their thoughts as well).

There’s something about this sentiment, the stated willingness to vote for *anybody* to prove something, that feels a bit off. Like there’s too much desperation to appear to seem innocent.

Of course, something no one has yet brought up is that it may also be possible that the Masons ARE our power roles... Unless we have a doctor or cop (and while we might suspect that there is a Javert cop, or maybe a non-Javert cop, no one has mentioned a possible doctor, IMHO). In this case, we'd want to have them around as long as possible...

Um? No one *should* mention a possible doctor... that kind of has a negative effect on their effectiveness/lifespan.


Stoofer:
I know you’re not currently present to clarify, but I’m still a bit puzzled by [126].

<snip>I think LML has a point. I think it surprising that either are still suspicious of vikingfan and CB and more surprising that they are both still pursuing them. FOS: gootentag & LordKrishna with a vote to follow unless anyone can suggest a better candidate.

You give 2 reasons for suspecting gootentag and Krishna. One is that they doubt the mason claims, which I’ve already mentioned seems hardly suspicious. The other is that their pursuit of the masons seemed too opportunistic. But this seems no different than your own post [126], following so close on LML’s accusation.


All:
Now, when rereading the thread, I had an idea that flavorwise was completely ridiculous. Could LML/Cosette be a SK? I realize this is speculatory, but thought it might be crazy enough to mention...
1) LML began the game speculating that Javert was mafia, yet totally reversed himself based on what his role said in [24]. Yet the only information he would have had to base his initial speculation upon was his role.
2) LML discouraged discussion of multiple killing groups in [41], [44].
3) LML was extremely evasive about claiming- but in [119] revealed that he is Cosette unprompted.
4) [metagame] 2 SK setup might balance out claimed strength of masons, especially with weakened cops only able to detect one particular SK (ie: Marius searching for Cosette).


Does anyone know of any precedent for a “booby-trapped ability”? That is, an optional ability possessed by a protown player which has an antitown effect?

[Changling bob]

Sorry about the lack of postingness, but Easter and all that...

Now I'm going back on what I said earlier (about not metagaming), however, some things that seem appropriate:

<snip>If they're both pro-town, their powers are probably dangerous. Perhaps if Eponine finds Cosette, Ep dies (as she did in book). Perhaps if they incite a revolution, something horrible happens...I have to guess that what seems like strength is actually danger or the game's out of whack. If only one of them is town, well -- their powers could just be "as is," but benefiting the scum as much as they do the town.<snip>

I fully agree with this. I was not aware of the Eponine/Cosette dying thing, having not read the book, but it makes sense. I think that given the power of masons plus recruiting, plus only one person died last night (given that we weren't lucky with roleblockers or anything) does seem far too powerful. If there are pro-town roles with anti-town abilities (ie, vikingfan's searching and my incite revolution), this would balance it a little (or a lot) if we didn't know until it was too late.

Also, I agree with a lot of what EmpTyger says in his last post.

At the moment, I think the most suspicious people are LML and LordKrishna. As EmpTyger says, LML is very reluctant to claim or say anything about his role, until talk of the mason group shows up, when he's perfectly willing to jump out with half a claim with his character. I'm not going to go as far as saying he's an SK, but his actions seem very odd.

LordKrishna, you seem to be jumping at the slightest noise that might not be good, even after it's been explained (several times).

I'm still not willing to vote anyone, but I'd like to see what LML has to say about his claim/role/starting information/anything else he might have to say.

[MeMe]

3) LML was extremely evasive about claiming- but in [119] revealed that he is Cosette unprompted.

Very

interesting point.

[vikingfan]

So is it worthwhile trying to recruit LML as Cosette tonight? Or is LML simply saying that because he has an anti-town role that will kill the one recruiting?

Hmmm....

[LordKrishna]

People seem to be misunderstanding my intentions, so I thought I'd clarify a few points brought up in recent posts.

There’s something about this sentiment, the stated willingness to vote for *anybody* to prove something, that feels a bit off. Like there’s too much desperation to appear to seem innocent.

No. You are deliberately leaving out the second part of this assertion, which is that I absolutely will not vote on someone without proof. Further, EmpTyger, anybody who is Pro-Town (I guess except for the Masons?) *should* be willing to vote for absolutely anybody, *IF* given proof of their guilt.

Um? No one *should* mention a possible doctor... that kind of has a negative effect on their effectiveness/lifespan.

I didn't say that someone should claim, or anything of the sort. I mentioned that there was no talk of a possible character in the book who could be a doctor. This is very different. I meant by it that I think it quite likely that there is, in fact, no doctor, and that the Mason group might be Pro-Town on the grounds that if we were to have no doctor or cop, the Masons would be our power roles.... This is why I took my vote off them.

LordKrishna, you seem to be jumping at the slightest noise that might not be good, even after it's been explained (several times).

Once again, this is not true. I have jumped only once (Look back over all the posts), and it was at something that should have seemed suspicious even to you. I mean, what the hell does 'incite revolution' mean to you, if you think it's a good thing? Again, I've taken off my vote, as I think it's not worth worrying about with the Mafia still lurking about, but it just seems weird to me. It would really help if you offered your insight on this specific point. (Which, by the way, has not been explained a single time, much less "several times").

Furthermore, this looks weird to me:

So is it worthwhile trying to recruit LML as Cosette tonight?

The recruitment thing doesn't sound good for the town. I cite as a recent example a live game I played, in which there were two werewolves (Mafia), a Guardian Angel (doctor), and a Seer (cop), as well as a Zombie Master. The reason I bring this up is that the Zombie Master, by night, would try to recruit people to his cause, and if the zombies outnumbered the town, they won, and both Town and Werewolves lost.

Is there a way Town can tell Masons to promise not to recruit anyone, as a show of good faith?

-K

[vikingfan]

Maybe I phrased my question wrong. Changlingbob recruits. I only search for Cosette. Two totally different abilities for two totally different masons.

[gootentag]

gootentag:
You don’t seem to be saying anything *wrong*, but your only contributions feel like you’re only here to merely play devil’s advocate. Which, while still of value, still feels incomplete, like you’re trying to avoid committing to anything. You somehow have 2 votes on you, yet you haven’t even cast a vote yet.

I am not attempting to play devil's advocate here. I admit to being a less than frequent poster, but I think one of the reasons is that one of my biggest pet peeves in Mafia in general is people who post to avoid "lurking" and say nothing. If my contributions seem contrary in nature, it is most likely that I feel more compelled to voice them if I feel I'm saying something that hasn't been said.

In addition, I am genuinely concerned about the possibilities of the claimed recruiting masonry. It strikes me as too overpowered to be plausible. However,

Is there a way Town can tell Masons to promise not to recruit anyone, as a show of good faith?

This also does not strike me as a good idea. If there are no adverse effects to a townie being recruited (per a textbook "townie cult,") there is no reason they should not recruit tonight. If a revolution ensues, it will atleast serve to validate their claims and (sticking with the defined "cult") it probably means whomever they targeted is scum, which hands us tomorrow's lynch anyway. Their silence neither confirms nor denies their claim, and while a cop could check one of them out to verify/shoot down the other, there are most likely better targets to investigate.

I’m not thrilled to cast a vote for anyone based on any of my current reasonings, but I’ve got to start somewhere. And since it’s already been started on you, I may as well continue there. I can't speak for MeMe's reasoning, and I don't yet agree with LML's, but I think you can at least address my concerns.

Vote: gootentag

FOS:EmpTyger

. Another thing that constantly irks me is bandwagoning for the sake of bandwagoning. Continuing to vote for someone primarily because they currently have the most votes strikes me as inherrently scummy. If you think I'm scum, by all means vote and tell me why so that I may clarify my stance or arguments (and even occasionally change them,) but you can't logically defend myself and it becomes futile to even try.

3) LML was extremely evasive about claiming- but in [119] revealed that he is Cosette unprompted.

This is indeed interesting.

Does anyone know of any precedent for a “booby-trapped ability”? That is, an optional ability possessed by a protown player which has an antitown effect?

I have seen a few, including:
1) A doctor who has a 10% chance of "malpractice," killing their patient.
2) A cop who views certain townie roles as scum (not naive, paranoid, etc.)
3) Townies that randomly kill someone voting for them if they are lynched,
4) A "paranoid gun owner" who kills anyone who targets him at night,
5) Vigilantes categorically fit that description...

Mind you, these more complex roles are more prevolent in larger games, where the town hypothetically has more "days" to figure things out. At this point everything other than the claims already made is unbased speculation and metagaming.

As for my non-voting status, I am aware of it and choosing to remain so for role based reasons.[/quote]