Open 137: Mountainous Multiball (GAME OVER!) before 781

[zwetschenwasser]

Fail. I did mention suspicion of greg.

[White Castle]

Fail. I did mention suspicion of greg.

Where?

[Furry]

Well that was abrupt, did you seriously just hammer your third suspect when there were a few people that had barely commented on him?

[White Castle]

Well that was abrupt, did you seriously just hammer your third suspect when there were a few people that had barely commented on him?

Did I miss it where zwet said gregory was his third suspect?

In addition to not answering Super, zwet should have waited to see if Gregory posted his out-until-next-friday notice in his other game.

[zwetschenwasser]

YES YOU MISSED IT FOOL

[Furry]

There was a very breif (and from there on out unacted upon) mention of scum-Greg here

Nice Greg catch, flave.

After that though there were no mentions of any non WC-SB scum, so thats why I have greg as zwets third pick in my notes.

[zwetschenwasser]

Which is why i hammered.

[White Castle]

Which is why i hammered.

Why didn't you respond to Super first? Why haven't you responded yet?

Why didn't you wait to see if Gregory was serious about being gone?

[zwetschenwasser]

Because he lied.

[dejkha]

The “You's Gonna Die!” Vote Count

Gregory -5- (Furry, Scott Brosius, Flava Flave, Kaiveran zwetschenwasser)

Kaiveran -2-(White Castle, Huntress)
Furry -1- (Gregory)

Not Voting: SuperBridges

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.

If there's a mistake, let me know.

As punishment for his presumed misdeeds, the town decided to circumcise the poor villager. Without getting into detail, it was truly a horrible experience, even a little for the villagers that took part in it. It was Zwet who took the final snip, "That's was fun, let's do it again sometime."

"I feel a little weird after that," a villager said.

"Yeah, me to," another added.

"What's wrong?" Zwet asked, "He was a bad dude and he needed a little snip snip to show him whats what."

They all looked at Gregory just as he died of discomfort and embarrassment. Once dead, the town decided to search him and his house only to find his PETA ID.

"Damn, he was a member of PETA? He's cleared. PETA doesn't have the brass ones to kill anyone."

Gregory,

Vanilla Townie

, Lynched Day 2


There's 72 hours for players to send in their night choice if they have one.

[dejkha]

The sun came up and shined over the town, including the corpse in the town square. Everyone gathered around to notice it was one of their own with a bullet would on the left and right side of her head. Upon further investigation, they found that each bullet was angled as if it was shot from a building from the left and right of where she was standing. The town searched the roofs of both buildings to find a an abandoned sniper rifle on each.

"Wow, being sniped in the head at the same time by two people? That's some bad luck."

"Yeah well, when there are murderous groups on the loose, she shouldn't have been out here in the first place."

Huntress,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed Night 2.

[dejkha]

The “New” Vote Count

Not Voting: Everyone

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.

If there's a mistake, let me know.

[Huntress]

Bah!

Go town

[SuperBridge]

Just some theorizing about our position (basically meaningless post while I'm still collecting my thoughts on who's scum):

4 townies
3 mafia.

This is

not

a good position. If we mislynch today, best case-scenario (two scum cross kills) is that we're in LYLO tomorrow (although we can no-lynch once if we want). Worse case scenario is that two townies die, and town automatically loses. If one townie and one mafia gets killed over night, then we'd be in either a 1:1:2* or a 2:2 endgame loss. Last scenario is that one townie is nightkilled (both mafia target the same again). Then we'd be in 2:2:1, which will be LYLO again.

Conclusion: If we mislynch today, we will be in LYLO or worse tomorrow, with the best case being 1mafia:3 townies.

If we lynch Mafia B, then we go into tomorrow 2:3, meaning LYLO again.

If we lynch Mafia A, then, if scum cross kill, we win. If one scum dies and one townie, then we go into LYLO 1:3 (but we can no-lynch if we want), if two townies die, then we go into 1:1:2*. If one townie dies, we go into 1:1:3, which is like 1:1:2 but with a much better chance of succeeding.

strategy for 1:1:2

If town lynches either mafia A or Mafia B, then the mafia that is alive gets to night kill another townie, making a 1:1 endgame for a mafia loss. Obviously if we lynch a townie then we lose. So,

in 1:1:2, the strategy is NOT to Lynch

. I know this sounds annoying, but it's up to the scum. If they cross kill, town wins. If one hits townie and the other hits mafia, then we go into LYLO. If they both hit town there's a draw for them. If they hit the same townie, town loses.


The reason I said all this is so that in case I die today or tonight, the information is in the thread.


TL;DR: If we are in situation with one mafia alive on each time and two townies, we shouldn't lynch. Also, we're most likely going to be in LYLO tomorrow. I can't tell whether it's preferable to lynch Mafia A or Mafia B.

[Scott Brosius]

Alright going through Huntress's posts to see why both mafia groups targeted her for the NK.

21- Joke vote for Drench

82- Questions some actions by zer0 before he suicides.

96- Changes vote to zer0

127- Urges town not to rush and majority lynch WC especially after majority lynching zer0. Calls Gregory scummy as he jumps on the WC wagon early. Addresses my question about zer0 attempting to ruin games.

151- Questions zwet about rushing to conclude that I am zer0's partner based solely on zer0's claim. Explains why we shouldn't majority lynch quickly. Points out that I used the word "tonight" in a post.

153- Calls out zwet again for not answering her questions.

155- Again calls out zwet to come out from Greg's shadow and post his own analysis. Calls out Kaiveran for posting fluff analysis. Says the rush to lynch WC is opportunistic even though he seems scummy.

161- Again addresses that zer0's claim that I am his partner cannot be trusted as he has lied in other games.

180- Questions Furry's want to lynch quickly. Announces Greg, Kaiv and me as top suspects.

250- Votes Kaiveran because she sees him possibly being scum A or B. Mentions doubts about Gregory. Mentions that Kaiv and Gregory did not answer her earlier questions.


So after all this, it seems the main suspects Huntress had were zwet, Kaiv and myself. zwet said Kaiv = town in 238 which is suspicious linking two of the three people that Huntress suspected.

Kaiv was the 4th person on the Gregory bandwagon and zwet hammered him even though he had been standing behind Greg's analysis most of d2. It's a close call between the 2 for me today, but I think zwet's hammer is pretty scummy and hence there goes my vote

Vote; zwet

[SuperBridge]

Alright going through Huntress's posts to see why both mafia groups targeted her for the NK.

21- Joke vote for Drench

82- Questions some actions by zer0 before he suicides.

96- Changes vote to zer0

127- Urges town not to rush and majority lynch WC especially after majority lynching zer0. Calls Gregory scummy as he jumps on the WC wagon early. Addresses my question about zer0 attempting to ruin games.

151- Questions zwet about rushing to conclude that I am zer0's partner based solely on zer0's claim. Explains why we shouldn't majority lynch quickly. Points out that I used the word "tonight" in a post.

153- Calls out zwet again for not answering her questions.

155- Again calls out zwet to come out from Greg's shadow and post his own analysis. Calls out Kaiveran for posting fluff analysis. Says the rush to lynch WC is opportunistic even though he seems scummy.

161- Again addresses that zer0's claim that I am his partner cannot be trusted as he has lied in other games.

180- Questions Furry's want to lynch quickly. Announces Greg, Kaiv and me as top suspects.

250- Votes Kaiveran because she sees him possibly being scum A or B. Mentions doubts about Gregory. Mentions that Kaiv and Gregory did not answer her earlier questions.


So after all this, it seems the main suspects Huntress had were zwet, Kaiv and myself. zwet said Kaiv = town in 238 which is suspicious linking two of the three people that Huntress suspected.

Kaiv was the 4th person on the Gregory bandwagon and zwet hammered him even though he had been standing behind Greg's analysis most of d2. It's a close call between the 2 for me today, but I think zwet's hammer is pretty scummy and hence there goes my vote

Vote; zwet

This is an

extremely

weak case.

[zwetschenwasser]

Vote: Scott

I'm positive Zero wasn't lying. Let's kill this guy, please.

[Furry]

I need to do some thinking, this isnt even close to what I though the day would open with. Trying not to give into WIFOM here

[zwetschenwasser]

Grr....

[Furry]

The three WIFOM loops I am dealing with right now are

1) Why am I not dead
2) Why is Scott not dead

From one I keep getting the feeling that either mafia A is hunting for a Zero partner, or that I am going all out defending mafia A and just not realzing it.

From the second one, it does actually make zwet not scum A in my mind. Mafia A should be trying to kill off mafia B with everything they have got, and hope that B decides to kill of people they think are town. Now zwet knows that his Scott case is bad (or at least should know), so isnt going to get him lynched off it. However if he is just blustering thinking Scott is scum, he is doing a really good job. I dont think he is though, even if he is Mafia A I bet he thinks Scott is scum. Now, the question is why is Scott not dead? Its obvious that his lynch isnt backed too much, and if mafia A thinks he is scum, they should of killed him already. So WIFOM, I do not think Scott is scum B (along with Kav, and to a lesser extent FF and zwet).

I almost am starting to think Scott is scum A, since it fullfills both my theories of why I am alive, and why Scott is alive. B would not kill Scott due to the outing, since Scott is supposed to be B. Scott-A would not kill me due to the outing, since I am defending him pretty hardcore.

So I need to think about this, and even run numbers on what the best mafia lynch is today (even though I think for the most part it relies on what mafia does). I think if both mafias decide to town hunt, mafia B is the right lynch. If mafia go for eachother, mafia A is the best lynch. Given that there is no way to figure this variable out (although A should be trying to kill B), I think we lynch the most obv-scum we can come up with.

My only problem with not making zwet obv-town is that Zero seemed to bring up Emp and Zwet as policy lynches, although Emp was brought up as a reason not to policy lynch zwet. However zwets vote seemed really provokary for scum to do to their partner. I would be willing to bet zwet isnt A though.

[SuperBridge]

Just some theorizing about our position (basically meaningless post while I'm still collecting my thoughts on who's scum):

4 townies
3 mafia.

This is

not

a good position. If we mislynch today, [ snip ]. Last scenario is that one townie is nightkilled (both mafia target the same again). Then we'd be in 2:2:1, which will be LYLO again.

Interesting to note that in this scenario, it is in MAFIA B'S BEST INTERESTS (and in the town's best interests) TO CLAIM in this situation.

click here to find out why

So, Mr. Mafia B person, whoever you are, please claim if you are alive with two townies and two mafia.

[SuperBridge]

I almost am starting to think Scott is scum A

, since it fullfills both my theories of why I am alive, and why Scott is alive. B would not kill Scott due to the outing, since Scott is supposed to be B. Scott-A would not kill me due to the outing, since I am defending him pretty hardcore.

Wow! I had completely forgotten that he could be scum A. I was only thinking he could be scum B or town! This actually makes more sense.

[zwetschenwasser]

Eh wha???

[Scott Brosius]

Alright going through Huntress's posts to see why both mafia groups targeted her for the NK.

21- Joke vote for Drench

82- Questions some actions by zer0 before he suicides.

96- Changes vote to zer0

127- Urges town not to rush and majority lynch WC especially after majority lynching zer0. Calls Gregory scummy as he jumps on the WC wagon early. Addresses my question about zer0 attempting to ruin games.

151- Questions zwet about rushing to conclude that I am zer0's partner based solely on zer0's claim. Explains why we shouldn't majority lynch quickly. Points out that I used the word "tonight" in a post.

153- Calls out zwet again for not answering her questions.

155- Again calls out zwet to come out from Greg's shadow and post his own analysis. Calls out Kaiveran for posting fluff analysis. Says the rush to lynch WC is opportunistic even though he seems scummy.

161- Again addresses that zer0's claim that I am his partner cannot be trusted as he has lied in other games.

180- Questions Furry's want to lynch quickly. Announces Greg, Kaiv and me as top suspects.

250- Votes Kaiveran because she sees him possibly being scum A or B. Mentions doubts about Gregory. Mentions that Kaiv and Gregory did not answer her earlier questions.


So after all this, it seems the main suspects Huntress had were zwet, Kaiv and myself. zwet said Kaiv = town in 238 which is suspicious linking two of the three people that Huntress suspected.

Kaiv was the 4th person on the Gregory bandwagon and zwet hammered him even though he had been standing behind Greg's analysis most of d2. It's a close call between the 2 for me today, but I think zwet's hammer is pretty scummy and hence there goes my vote

Vote; zwet

This is an

extremely

weak case.

This is an extremely unhelpful statement. Looking at the NK is important especially since BOTH mafia groups were aiming for Huntress. Clearly there were some suspicions or some reason that both groups decided she needed to die. zwet had been behind Gregory supporting his views for almost the entirety of d2 and then decides to hammer suddenly? Looks like scum taking advantage of a situation to me. zwet really has not done much to help the town besides piggyback on other's opinions. But I do want to hear how you think my case is weak, saying that it is just a weak case does not help as much as actual discussion.

Vote: Scott

I'm positive Zero wasn't lying. Let's kill this guy, please.

I'm pretty tired of recapitulating the same response to this. You are basing this off of a statement of a known liar and nothing else.

Also Furry, you could still be here because you are scum. But obviously you aren't going to discuss that. I am guessing I am still alive because I am such an easy target for a mis-lynch. Every day I stay alive boosts zwet's opinion that I am zer0's partner and further improves the odds that I will be a victim of a mis-lynch.

[Furry]

This is an extremely unhelpful statement.

I agree with it though. I really dont see a whole lot of reasons to believe that zwet is scum at this point. He is one of my last picks for A given the kills so far, and still very very low on my picks for B.

I am guessing I am still alive because I am such an easy target for a mis-lynch. Every day I stay alive boosts zwet's opinion that I am zer0's partner and further improves the odds that I will be a victim of a mis-lynch.

Actually what zwet has said has absolutely nothing to do with why I think you are alive. Anyone who doesnt sccumb to buying into really obv WIFOM shouldnt be using what Zero said to make you look like his partner. I dont see you being his partner though and A letting you live two nights. They either were really confident that Hunt and one of the N1 kills were Zeros partner before you, or you are A, or they think you are VT. Need to reread some stuff, run over what works and what does not work for pairing, and a lot of other stuff. Got more finals to attend to now. Might have an ok case up Thursday though, or maybe tomorrow if I decide to take a longish break.