Mini 773- Welcome to Lynchville! Perfection! (Over)

[BrianMcQueso]

MOD:

Can we have an extension? Please? I know you've given us a boatload of extra time already, but I'm just asking for another... 24 hours. So much has developed recently.

Bah. Bah, bah, bah.

unvote Light-kun

I see doctor as the role least likely to want to claim, but pushing it that close to deadline is risky, risky business.

@hohum: No mass claim. Not Day 1. Regardless of how many PRs we flip. Just, no. We don't hand the Mafia a blueprint to the town for them to pick optimal nightkills.

I'm really not buying the case against cateraction. Everyone has the instinct for self-preservation, regardless of alignment. And unvoting the doctor without re-voting is not scummy play.

While Kublai Khan has gotten a lot more pro-town as the game has progressed, his early play is deciding my vote. I'd rather see him lynched than cateraction, at this point.

vote: Kublai Khan

[BrianMcQueso]

@cateraction: Are you really a power role? Or were you just being sarcastic. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a stacked down with either a large scum group or a scum group with power.

[hohum]

@hohum: No mass claim. Not Day 1. Regardless of how many PRs we flip. Just, no. We don't hand the Mafia a blueprint to the town for them to pick optimal nightkills.

Go back and reread. I'm pushing for a D2 mass claim.

The chance for the town to break the game is better than the chance for scum to kill optimally. It will be much easier to catch scum if we know what we're dealing with here.

[cateraction]

That was sarcastic.

[hohum]

an informed majority has a better chance than an uninformed majority. This isn't a balanced game! That means it's breakable.

[Light-kun]

Cateraction is completely scattered... I guess RC and Alex have a point.

Still, I don't think my thoughts on KK are wrong...

Grr....

So many people are for this, and Cateraction's play has been rather...all over the place...

It's true that alone looks scummy, but...wow, this game's exploded, and I can't decide who's scum...

While I see the merit in Cateraction's potential scumminess, I still believe in my KK case and will maintain my vote there for now. Sorry, but I don't think I can get back here before deadline.

[BrianMcQueso]

(Post 476 should read "stacked

t

own")

@ hohum: Gotcha. There's a lot of stuff going on, and with an hour left, I missed that. I'll be willing to discuss D2 mass claim later. Right now, we've got lynches to talk about.

@ cateraction: Are you claiming vanilla, or not claiming at all? Just trying to be clear.

[cateraction]

I am not claiming at all until I am asked too. My post was a jab at hohum and has no relation to my role.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm not asking you to claim. I'm just verifying that you weren't claiming.

[cateraction]

Cateraction is completely scattered... I guess RC and Alex have a point.

Still, I don't think my thoughts on KK are wrong...

Grr....

So many people are for this, and Cateraction's play has been rather...all over the place...

It's true that alone looks scummy, but...wow, this game's exploded, and I can't decide who's scum...

While I see the merit in Cateraction's potential scumminess, I still believe in my KK case and will maintain my vote there for now. Sorry, but I don't think I can get back here before deadline.

I really haven't been that scattered, and even if I have, you're the last person to call me out on it.

[qwints]

So your notion is the town was lucky enough to hit on TWO scum, both fake claiming PR to avoid lynch? Do you have any idea what the odds of that are?

It's also possible that just one of them is a power role.

As for the odds...

I think we can safely assume that there are either 3 or 4 scum and at least 2 PRs. (Has anyone seen a 12 person normal that didn't fit those criteria?) I'll also assume we don't have a retarded vanilla who false claimed.

That leaves a range of 0-7 vanilla townies. Now, assuming random selection of two targets, what are the odds that neither is a vanilla townie?
Let 2nv = 2 non-vanilla and t be the number of townies

P(t=x|2nv) = P(t=x)*P(2nv|t=x)/P(2nv)

P(2nv|t=x) is easy to solve for. It's simply (12-x/12)(11-x/11).

[mrow]x[col]P(2nv|x)[col]P(x|2nv)0[col]1[col].241[col].83[col].202[col].68[col].163[col].54[col].134[col].42[col].105[col].31[col].076[col].23[col].067[col].15[col].04

Now, in order to get to a final conclusion, I assumed that all of the values of t are equally likely. I just divided all the likelihoods by 4.16 (the total of the probabilities) to give us the probability of each situation.

The number of PR's = 12 - x - scum. I would say we've got at least a 1/4 chance of having 4 power roles or less. Probably much greater than that given the greater power probability of a reasonable number of power roles.

[qwints]

Unofficial vote count (2)

Light-kun-(1)- Kublai Khan, ,
Kublai Khan-(5)-Archon, light kun, qwints, , cateraction, BrianMcQueso
cateractoin (5)- RedCoyote,alexhan, archaist, LesterGroans, hohum

Not voting - Chief sky

Unofficial time til deadline: .5 hours

It's clear that KK and Chief Sky aren't going to break the tie. So we need to make a decision and fast.

[hohum]

I think 4 scum in a 12 person game is unlikely. It's still also very unlikely that we've found 3 PRs by accident on D1. 2 seems a tad more likely, though still quite improbable. If we have 2 PRs then I *might* be able to buy the fact that one of them is lying.

I might back off my push for a mass claim on D2 if our lynch target flips vanilla.

[cateraction]

I will not be here at deadline, I have to go to work in 15 minutes.

[hohum]

qwints: cateractoin was the first to 5 votes, so he's going to be lynched over KK right now.

[qwints]

My bad, I missed the addendum to the rules.

As for 4 versus 3 scum, I've had 2 games with 4 scum and 4 games with 3 scum, though that's obviously not a great sample size.

[qwints]

I'm about to grab a late lunch and I doubt I'll be back before deadline. I leave with one question for tomorrow: Hohum, have you meta'd the mod?

[afatchic]

You are officially playing on borrowed time. If anyone has any last thoughts you better make them quick. I'm doing my final votecount right now..

[afatchic]

MOD:

Can we have an extension? Please? I know you've given us a boatload of extra time already, but I'm just asking for another... 24 hours. So much has developed recently.

Sorry, but according to the rules a majority of the people have to ask, and you are the only one i noticed.

[afatchic]

Your Final Day 1 Votecount!

cateraction-(5)- RedCoyote, alexhans, Archaist, LesterGroans, hohum

Kublai Khan-(5)-Archon, Light-kun, qwints, cateraction, BrianMcQueso
Light-kun-(3)-, Kublai Khan

Not voting-(1)-ChiefSkye4

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

cateraction has been lynched, death scene coming soon.

[hohum]

JESUS

@MOD how about at least a reveal on that flip please!? The suspense is killing me!

[afatchic]

As the sun was setting in Lynchville, the town couldn't come to an agreement on who to lynch. Since most everyone seemed fine with a Light-Kun lynch all day, they decided to just lynch him and be done with it. As they tightened the rope around his neck, the townspeople asked him if he had any last words. He smiles at them and says, "Yes, actually I do. I'm the town doctor. If you lynch me then i can't save your tracker." The townsmen quickly loosen the rope and rush him off the stage. Since the sun was nearly all the way down by now, 5 townspeople quickly rush another candidate up on stage. While the five are on stage trying to convince people for a cateraction lynch, 5 more people rush up Kublia Khan and petition that they have a better lynch candidate. As the town is split, it seems a conclusion won't be made. While the two parties are on stage arguing the one street lamp in Lynchville comes on. The townspeople realize they have to do something quick, if they want to lynch someone at all. Finally, an agreement is made; cateraction is to be lynched, since he was on stage first. As the rope is hung around his neck, they ask him if he has any last words. An eerie familiar sound comes out, as he says," Yes i do! I'm a power role!" As the town is thrown up in ruckus again, they realize he was just smarting off to hohum. The townspeople finally decide they have heard enough; and cateraction hangs...

The townspeople watch as cateraction just dangles from the rope. They all grab their flashlights, since its become dark by now, and begin to investigate cateraction. hohum, being unpatient , quickly rushes to the dead body and checks his pockets. He pulls out some lint, a pocket knife, and a....




police badge.

The town all looks around in disbelief thinking they just hung the town cop. The townspeople head to his house next, to confirm their suspicions. When they get there it seems their suspicions have been confirmed as they find police evidence laying around his house. As they are all a little bit sad, they open the police evidence files and realize its the evidence that came up missing from the police department about the recent murders. As they look at it more closely, they notice the knife they took from his pockets matched the knife wounds from the killings. It appears they had a dirty cop in Lynchville, but he's gone now.

cateraction-Mafia Godfather-has been lynched.

It is now night one! Night actions are due within 72 hours.

If ChiefSkye4 hasn't picked up her prod shortly I will begin looking for a replacement.

[afatchic]

ChiefSkye4 hasn't picked up her prod, so I am looking for a replacement for her. Night will not end until i find a replacement for her, to prevent any type of meta gaming.

[afatchic]

Albert B. Rampage replaces ChiefSkye4.

I am extending the deadline 4 hours for him to be able to skim through the thread and submit a night action if he has one.

Day 2 will start at about 10 P.M. tonight. Sorry night 1 took so long.

[afatchic]

Morning 2!!!

Early the next morning the townspeople wake up in a bitter, sweet kind of way. Most everyone is glad they made it through another night, yet they know someone close to them probably wasn't as lucky. By the time most everyone arrives to the town square, morning is nearly over. hohum quiets the crowd, then does a headcount. "7..8..9...We are missing two" says hohum. "I don't see Albert B. Rampage or Archaist. Has anyone seen them today?" Everyone in the crowd shakes their heads, signaling no.

Not wanting to wait any longer, the 9 townspeople make their way over to the houses of the two missing people. They first arrive at Albert B. Rampage's house. Right as they are about to knock, the door swings open with Albert B. Rampage standing in the doorway. "Sorry I'm late" he exclaims. He then begins to tell everyone how he forgot to set his alarm clock the night before.

Now the 10 people head to Archaist house, hoping for the same outcome. They walk up the sidewalk, as Albert B. Rampage beats on the door trying to get an answer. He then attempts to let himself in, however the door is locked. Just then one of the others notices the garage door is open, so they take a look inside. The first thing everyone sees is Archaist laying lifeless next to his vehicle; a Geo Tracker!

Archaist: Tracker- Shot night 1.