Mini 761 - Game Over

[Zachrulez]

This was followed up on Ryan. It turned out that I was thinking about the situation in mistaken terms. I was working under the presumption that scum would quick hammer, which they wouldn't if there was a vig or an SK in the game. I failed to consider that. The entire analysis ended up being quite silly and void as a result.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, thus is starting my attention. Not only does she bring up the idea of a massclaim, but desires Jazz be last. She seems to be putting a lot of trust in Jazz that I feel is unwarranted. Not only that, she deals with scumpairs, which I despise, by the way, and consider it generally a form of tunnelvisioning.

The reason I look for pairs at this stage of the game is on the basis of how you normally look for scum once you get one dead. If you have confirmed scum, you always look for ties between that player and others. I find it more insightful reading the thread, assuming one player to be scum and seeing if makes sense with their interactions. Then I swap that player with someone else and read again.

It's the kind of logic I derived from doing crosswords and playing scrabble (a couple of my keen interests). When I'm stuck on a particular word or set of tiles - the easiest way for me to solve the puzzle is to lock something as definite (maybe a suffix, or the starting letter), and see if I can see the answer with more information in my head. If I can't see anything, I change the definite information and look again.

It's a lengthy process of trial and error, which I feel is necessary considering we haven't hit scum after 5 kills.

[X]

Vote Count

LesterGroans:

(1) ryan2754

Stephoscope:

(1) Jazzmyn

Jazzmyn:

(1) alexhans

Not Voting

: (4) Hoopla, LesterGroans, Stephoscope, Zachrulez

Vote Threshold

: 4

Happiness with Posting Level

:

Satisified

[Stephoscope]

I suppose Jazzmyn would prefer everyone roleclaim but her, and we all lynch more townies, before she steps up and makes the roleclaim she supposedly felt it beneficial to hint at.

I think it's very likely she was planning a fakeclaim, and she's realized the setup possibilities in this game make it a lot riskier than she'd thought. It'd be foolish to let her out of this.

Vote: Jazzmyn

[Hoopla]

I suppose Jazzmyn would prefer everyone roleclaim but her, and we all lynch more townies, before she steps up and makes the roleclaim she supposedly felt it beneficial to hint at.

I think it's very likely she was planning a fakeclaim, and she's realized the setup possibilities in this game make it a lot riskier than she'd thought. It'd be foolish to let her out of this.

Vote: Jazzmyn

I'm not happy with Jazzmyn votes at the moment, when it's safe to assume she isn't vanilla.

I think the way she has outed herself as a powerrole (or scum) means she has to fullclaim today. If she isn't scum, scum know where one powerrole is and have an easy kill and we lose whatever information she gained from her role.

What is everyone's thoughts based on Jazzmyn claiming? I see no reason for her not to claim, and I'd prefer we knew before a large wagon formed on her.

[alexhans]

Not to worry Hoop... I've been checking if there were any more votes on her... That would be totally condemning... Anyway, I want her to claim. Definetly. Her ways are causing me big suspicion. She looks like Panzer when he waited like 2 days to make his claim, time to think.

Besides... what do you think a large waggon is? 4 votes to lynch... we have 2... 1 more would be L-1... that's as far as it can go without lynching.

[X]

Vote Count

Jazzmyn:

(2) alexhans, Stephoscope

LesterGroans:

(1) ryan2754

Stephoscope:

(1) Jazzmyn

Not Voting

: (3) Hoopla, LesterGroans, Zachrulez

Vote Threshold

: 4

Happiness with Posting Level

:

FRUSTRATED

[Hoopla]

Happiness with Posting Level

:

FRUSTRATED

Aw, possum.

[Jazzmyn]

Hello, all

Sorry for my absence the last couple of days, but I am dealing with an unexpected family crisis/emergency, which has precluded me from getting to any of my games.

As I have already said, I intend to claim today, and if the pro-town players come to a consensus on that, I am content to go ahead.

Personally, I think that Stephoscope is scum, and I will set out in full my reasons for thinking so at my first available opportunity. It may not be this (real life) day, depending on how things go with the abovementioned crisis, but if all goes well, I hope to be able to get to it tonight.

Regards,
Jazz

[alexhans]

Jazz...

Who are the pro-town players that should come to that consensus?

I would like you to write your claim, full answers & conclusions but DONT post them until Lester has given his opinion on the game so far.

[ryan2754]

Jazz...

Who are the pro-town players that should come to that consensus?

I would like you to write your claim, full answers & conclusions but DONT post them until Lester has given his opinion on the game so far.

QFT...I am also looking forward to awaiting your case on Steph.

[Zachrulez]

Jazz needs to claim.

It doesn't serve any pro-town purpose not to at this point.

[LesterGroans]

There's absolutely no drawback to Jazz claiming, so I definitely think she should. Acting suspicious like she has been can not be excused by a softclaim. With that claim I'd like to know what you did on each day/night and the results so we can take a look at that in regards to your actions.

[alexhans]

It's been 5 days since you last posted here and the only thing you can say is this?

Try to help a bit more.

As to Hoopla's suggestion of Jazz claiming last if we're confident in her alignment to catch out possible scum, it sounds like a great idea, but are we confident in her alignment?

I believe Jazz's activities to be suspect up until now

, and it would be very easy for her to -- at this point -- choose a town player's role and call them out on it and get us to hang one of our own.

I do like the idea of the scummiest players claiming first

, unfortunately in my eyes that doesn't leave Jazz as last.

Why do you believe jazz to be suspicious pre-soft-claim?
Who are in your opinion the scummiest players?

[Stephoscope]

Just waiting to hear from Jazzmyn...it sure looks like consensus to me.

[Zachrulez]

Vote: Lester

After having a look at Lester in iso, his hammer of Panzer was actually a lot sneakier than I originally thought.

He was suspicious of Ash, but that was easily resolved by one post by Ash explaining his playing style. (REALLY?!)

Suspicious of Alexhans. I don't know if it's just me, but posts 20 and 21 of Lester in iso don't seem like a very convicing case against Alex to me. There's even some argument in there that he's a vig.

Suspicions of Alex transition directly into a hammer vote of Panzer without any warning. Really? You didn't think these suspicions were worth mentioning BEFORE you hammered? You didn't think it was worthwhile to give anyone a chance to say anything at all? You didn't think it was worthwhile to give a little warning that you were going to hammer?

These suspicions you had of Panzer apparently just sat there in your mind for a long time, and you never felt like sharing them with the town in order to give them any indication that you were going to drop your vote on him... I don't find that to be all that pro-town at all. I find it scummy. Very scummy.

[X]

Vote Count

Jazzmyn:

(2) alexhans, Stephoscope

LesterGroans:

(2) ryan2754, Zachrulez

Stephoscope:

(1) Jazzmyn

Not Voting

: (2) Hoopla, LesterGroans

Vote Threshold

: 4

Happiness with Posting Level

:

FRUSTRATED

[LesterGroans]

He was suspicious of Ash, but that was easily resolved by one post by Ash explaining his playing style. (REALLY?!)

No, if you actually read what he wrote he explained his minimalistic style(which was what I was critical of) and my suspicious weren't alleviated, I just didn't have anything further on him.

Suspicious of Alexhans. I don't know if it's just me, but posts 20 and 21 of Lester in iso don't seem like a very convicing case against Alex to me. There's even some argument in there that he's a vig.

Yeah, I was suspicious. So were you, you threw a vote in on Alexhans with little to no explanation shortly after mine and you're criticizing mine?

Suspicions of Alex transition directly into a hammer vote of Panzer without any warning. Really? You didn't think these suspicions were worth mentioning BEFORE you hammered?

You didn't think it was worthwhile to give anyone a chance to say anything at all?

You didn't think it was worthwhile to give a little warning that you were going to hammer?

I was suspicious of Alex and Panzer, Panzer had a lot of conversation already devoted towards him and frankly he was extremely scummy. Why wouldn't I hammer someone who I thought was scum and who I thought had lots of conversation devoted to them?
And the bolded part REALLY bothers me. People said lots, I thought there was tons of conversation and at some point there has to be a lynch: when I think there's scum up on the block I will do it. Also, of note, there were many instances in which Panzer was at L-1 and I didn't have a vote down and I could have hammered: I didn't. I did, however, when I thought it was right to do so, after plenty of conversation.
And you pretty much say it better than I could in Post 547(bolded is mine):

Ok enough of this.

Vote: Panzerjager

I mean there really isn't any way his claim really adds up if you think about it.

If he had practically a guilty on Steph, his vote wouldn't have been moving.

The only thing that backs up his claim is the fact that he was suspicious of Steph on day 1, and then reasonably certain he was scum after his "result" on day 2.

Why change your vote and push for anything BUT the lynch of the person you are SURE is scum then?

It really doesn't make any sense.

I won't fault Alexhans if he hammers here.

The only possible town explanation for Panzer's actions is that he really is that bad of a player, and that is something I refuse to believe.

__
@Alex: In my mind the two scummiest players are Zachrulez(which sounds a bit WIFOM) and Ryan/Jazz. Jazz's attitude is squirrelly, the soft-claim felt like a gambit to lay down breadcrumbs people would notice but hopefully not call her on, Ryan just reads bad to me ... seems like his posts are trying too much to be hollow. I don't know, hard to explain. Steph, for some reason has moments where it seems like really bad acting, but I haven't seen anything that makes me suspicious, so not sure there either. Hoopla... I'm not sure yet, and you I was suspicious of at first but recently you seem more like frustrated townie who's upset at our shitty track record so far.

[Zachrulez]

No see, you don't get it.

Alexhans hammering would have made sense, because he was suspicious of Panzer.

You never really voiced ANY suspicion of Panzer prior to your hammer.

THAT'S what is scummy about your play.

You can say what you want about how you allowed all this conversation, but you just sat back and watched it all rather than partaking or sharing any of your own thoughts about how you felt about Panzer.

Yay, I notice I am now on your list of scummiest players. (Nice OMGUS.)

[LesterGroans]

EBWOP: I meant OMGUS not WIFOM^

[Jazzmyn]

Roleclaim: I am a Vigilante.

I win when there are no longer any players alive who are a threat to the town.

On Night 1, I targeted and killed Amished. Obviously, that was a bad choice, since he flipped town.
On Night 2, I sent in a No-Kill order because after Panzer flipped town, I concluded that we had 5 Townies and 3 Scum still alive, and that if the Scum NKed another Townie and if I were to get my Vig target wrong and accidentally hit another Townie, we would be in a very bad position with 3 Townies and 3 Scum remaining on Day 3.

Of course, this was predicated upon me believing that we had a 3/9 setup, as I had never seen or heard of a 2/10 setup before. Thus, I also thought that we also had 2 more power roles such as a Doc and a Cop (or similar protective and investigative roles).

Accordingly, I decided that the best course of action was to send in a No-Kill order on Night 2, claim my role on Day 3, obtain town consensus for my Night 3 target and ask that the Doc protect me during Night 3 (without claiming) so that we could carry this out. In this way, I figured that my role could be of its greatest benefit to the town: i.e.: hopefully we would lynch Scum on Day 3, I would target the town consensus instead of Vigging on my own on Night 3, hopefully increasing our ability to hit another Scum then; leaving us with – at best, 5 Townies and 1 Scum on Day 4 (if the Scum did not successfully NK a Townie on Night 3 for some reason) and – at worst, leaving us with 4 Townies and 1 Scum on Day 4 (if the Scum did successfully NK a Townie on Night 3, or leaving us with 3 Townies and 1 Scum on Day 4 if we mislynched on Day 3).

So I thought that this plan would work out quite well, or at least as well as could be expected, and that it was far, far superior to the idea of taking a chance and getting my Vig target wrong on Night 2 and putting us in a 3/3 situation today. I figured that this plan would result in the most benefit and least risk to the Town.

Then the Scum NKed DDD, who also flipped Vanilla Townie, which led to the discussion about a 2/10 setup, which made me realize that if that is the case, then it is entirely possible that we do not have a Doc after all. I’m not sure if that is the case (the 2/10 setup, that is) but the number of Vanilla Townies to have flipped so far certainly does seem to suggest it, unless we still have three power roles among our remaining Townies and the Scum have just been unable to hit any of them with their NKs. I’m not a statistician and I don’t know enough about game setup to figure out how games are balanced out, but given this new possibility, I realized that I may well have screwed up in my previous analysis about whether or not I should claim, and the extent of its benefit to the town.

And, with that new possibility in mind, I re-thought about whether I should still claim, and concluded that I may as well because (a) if we have a 2/10 setup, then we currently have 6 Townies and 2 Scum; (b) if we lynch Scum today, that means we go into Night 3 with 5 Townies and 1 Scum; (c) I would still have a shot at the last Scum in Night 3, but with the added benefit of input from the rest of the town as to who to target; (d) the Scum already know whether it is a 2/10 or a 3/9 setup and they already know that if we don’t have a Doc or similar protective role, they can NK me at will; (e) while this results in a greater risk to the town than I initially thought it would, the bulk of that risk is to my role rather than to the rest of the town; (f) even if the Scum take me out on Night 3, the remaining Townies still have the ability to lynch the remaining Scum on Day 4, and will be in either a 3/1 position or a 4/1 position; and (e) if I screwed up by not knowing about or considering the 2/10 possibility, then I would rather bear the brunt of my error than anyone else in the town.

Also, I do not think that anyone else should claim at this point. And contrary to Alex's over the top reactionary posts on the previous page, I never suggested that others do so.

So, there you have it. Any questions?

Regards,
Jazz

[alexhans]

Ok... If you're telling the truth we may assume some things...

There is probably no SK. Unless the doc, RB prevented twice his kills, wich would be odd, but still possible.

I concluded that we had 5 Townies and 3 Scum still alive

townies or Town players? be careful with that words. They're totally different.

Accordingly, I decided that the best course of action was to send in a No-Kill order on Night 2, claim my role on Day 3, obtain town consensus for my Night 3 target and ask that the Doc protect me during Night 3

You thought there were 5 town and 3 scum... minus you 4 town 3 scum... And you wanted a consensus? Isn't it terribly dangerous knowing there is almost a scum majority? I really fail to see how your claim is beneficial to us. And if there's a cop you're trying to kidnap the cop to your self. And if you're scum he might die if he is a weak doc wich along with the NK would ensure your victory.

So I thought that this plan would work out quite well, or at least as well as could be expected, and that it was far, far superior to the idea of taking a chance and getting my Vig target wrong on Night 2 and putting us in a 3/3 situation today. I figured that this plan would result in the most benefit and least risk to the Town.

I'm gonna be honest with you, if you're indeed a vig, I think you just made a really bad play because now we will surely focus mainly on you and wether your case is real. Vigs aren't the most beneficial players, especially when we don't know if we're at lylo. You, not shooting last night is totally null because we don't have any way to find out either way.

Also, I do not think that anyone else should claim at this point. And contrary to Alex's over the top reactionary posts on the previous page, I never suggested that others do so.

oh... riiiiight... forgive me for understanding wrong the following post :

If we do come to an agreement about massclaiming, I think that Stephoscope, Lester and Zach need to be at the top of the queue.

Regards,
Jazz

You

never

said you thought massclaim was a bad idea...

@Jazz: Also, Is this your first time as Vig? oh! and...
I still don't understand why you couldn't answer 526 fully... You HAD ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIRMABLE INFO to give us, nor useful for finding scum... why were you so afraid to speak? Saying you were afraid of being night killed is not good enough becuase ultimately you weren't even planning on using your power...

Give me one reason why YOU, if you were a town role, would trust this claim.

Now, to answer alex's questions from Day 2 without disclosing my role and without going into things that could lead there:

This is odd. What info could you possibly disclose answering my questions?

@everyone: Counterclaims? anyone?

unvote

for now, I don't want to find out there is scum outside this waggon in the wrong way...

[Stephoscope]

I need to think through some of the possibilities here. While I do,

Unvote

Is there any precedent for a vigilante sending in a no-kill order? That's the part that really has me scratching my head.

What if Jazzmyn is a serial killer? (I don't think any of us thought there'd be both a SK and a vig, so vig seems a pretty safe roleclaim if she is.)

[Jazzmyn]

townies or Town players? be careful with that words. They're totally different.

Townies as in pro-town roles, including power roles. To me, all pro-town players are townies. Some might be power roles, some might be vanilla, but they're all townies.

You thought there were 5 town and 3 scum... minus you 4 town 3 scum... And you wanted a consensus? Isn't it terribly dangerous knowing there is almost a scum majority?

Huh? In what universe does 5 town/3 scum = "almost a scum majority"?

I really fail to see how your claim is beneficial to us.

I've just set out in my prior post above why I thought it would be beneficial, in great detail. You may disagree with some of my thought processes, but for you to say that it is not at all beneficial strikes me as very strange.

And if there's a cop you're trying to kidnap the cop to your self.

Um, what? I'm afraid I don't understand you.

And if you're scum he might die if he is a weak doc wich along with the NK would ensure your victory.

First, I'm not scum; second, if I was, I would have absolutely no reason to claim, as I have not been under any particular suspicion at any time on Day 1 or Day 2. You need to ask yourself whether you truly believe that scum who isn't drawing any suspicion to himself would act as I have; and third, I have no idea what you're talking about regarding a cop who could be a weak doc.

I'm gonna be honest with you, if you're indeed a vig, I think you just made a really bad play because now we will surely focus mainly on you and wether your case is real.

As I have already said, I realized that I hadn't considered the 2/10 possibility (since I'd never heard of it or seen it) so I may well have screwed up in thinking that my plan was a good idea, and if I did, I would rather take the brunt of that error on my own shoulders rather than foist it off on to the shoulders of another townie.

Players can ask all the questions they like, and they can either believe me or disbelieve me, but the bottom line is that I did what I thought was the most beneficial to the town with the knowledge and information that I had available to me at the time. If players believe me, great, we move on and the town can collectively pool its thoughts, hopefully lynch one of the scum today, and direct my target for Vigging tonight. If players disbelieve me, the scum and a couple of townies will lynch me. I've come to terms with the fact that I failed to consider a setup that I had never heard of, and if I am going to be lynched as a result and the town then loses both me and another townie to tonight's NK, well, talk about a lesson well learned.

Vigs aren't the most beneficial players, especially when we don't know if we're at lylo.

They're a lot more beneficial than scum, though.

You, not shooting last night is totally null because we don't have any way to find out either way.

Me not shooting last night is, however, reality. There was only one kill last night, so it had to be either by me or the scum, and it wasn't me.

Also, I do not think that anyone else should claim at this point. And contrary to Alex's over the top reactionary posts on the previous page, I never suggested that others do so.

oh... riiiiight... forgive me for understanding wrong the following post :

If we do come to an agreement about massclaiming, I think that Stephoscope, Lester and Zach need to be at the top of the queue.

You

never

said you thought massclaim was a bad idea...

I never said I was in favour of it, either. You do know what the word "if" means, right?

@Jazz: Also, Is this your first time as Vig?

No, it's my second. The first time was in Root of All Evil Mafia. All of my games are in my Wiki, so you can look it up there by clicking on the Wiki button below any of my posts.

oh! and...
I still don't understand why you couldn't answer 526 fully... You HAD ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIRMABLE INFO to give us, nor useful for finding scum... why were you so afraid to speak?

Why do you make such emotional outbursts and erect strawmen so regularly? I was not "afraid to speak" at all. I did answer your questions fully except for explaining parts that might have something to do with my role.

Saying you were afraid of being night killed is not good enough becuase ultimately you weren't even planning on using your power...

Another strawman. Two more, actually. 1) I am not afraid of being NKed and never said any such thing. Being NKed is just part of the game when you're a townie, and it's always a possibility, and if it happens, it still gives the town information to analyze the next day based on whatever happened previously. Of course, I would prefer not to be NKed if I have a power role, since that negates the use of the power for the benefit of the town, but it nonetheless still gives information. 2) I

was

planning on using my Vig power on Night 2 until Panzer flipped town, at which point the numbers changed, and ... see my last post above, where I explained this in detail.

Give me one reason why YOU, if you were a town role, would trust this claim.

See above.

This is odd. What info could you possibly disclose answering my questions?

See above.

Regards,
Jazz

[X]

Vote Count

LesterGroans:

(2) ryan2754, Zachrulez

Stephoscope:

(1) Jazzmyn

Not Voting

: (4) alexhans, Hoopla, LesterGroans, Stephoscope

Vote Threshold

: 4

Happiness with Posting Level

:

Neutral