Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #1250 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2009 8:54 pm

Post by don_johnson »

spring wrote:Don: where does the whole second scum roleblocker business come from?
when sekinj flipped cop it meant she was telling the truth about maybe being blocked. it occurred to me that there could still be another scum roleblocker. but that would be you. i really don't see it as you, but its not out of the realm of possibility. if you are scum with rhinox then you could also be lying.
goat wrote: If Rhinox was the only one who targeted Ice9, then why wouldn't you vote? Wouldn't he be guaranteed scum in that case?
i don't know rhinox' partner. discussion would help. also, i need to be protown. wifomic, but true. it appears to be my word against his as i thought it would be.

post 1249 is speculative wifom that is bent to fit the scumdj scenario. here's some wifom: what good is a mafia watcher against two cops, two docs(providing spring is town), tracker, watcher(oh, and a deputy)?
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Post Post #1251 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2009 8:55 pm

Post by don_johnson »

spring wrote:Don: where does the whole second scum roleblocker business come from?
when sekinj flipped cop it meant she was telling the truth about maybe being blocked. it occurred to me that there could still be another scum roleblocker. but that would be you. i really don't see it as you, but its not out of the realm of possibility. if you are scum with rhinox then you could also be lying.
goat wrote: If Rhinox was the only one who targeted Ice9, then why wouldn't you vote? Wouldn't he be guaranteed scum in that case?
i don't know rhinox' partner. discussion would help. also, i need to be protown. wifomic, but true. it appears to be my word against his as i thought it would be.

post 1249 is speculative wifom that is bent to fit the scumdj scenario. here's some wifom: what good is a mafia watcher against two cops, two docs(providing spring is town), tracker, watcher(oh, and a deputy)?
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Post Post #1252 (ISO) » Sat May 02, 2009 8:56 pm

Post by don_johnson »

take that! (accidental double post! :D )
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Post Post #1253 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2009 8:43 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Rhinox wrote:1) Does it make any sense for me if I'm scum to fake claim cop and then instead of making up fake results today, say nevermind, I'm really not a cop?
Claiming deputy is different than claiming cop. It's easier as scum to "cop" out and have a viable reason why you would no longer get results than it is to have to keep providing fake results all game. You would either have to keep semi-clearing people by giving out innocent results on townies, or you would have to eventually pit yourself in a 1-1 counterclaim by saying you got a scum result on someone. Granted, you would never fully be clearing anyone by nature of godfather as a possibility or the possibility that Lynx wasn't a sane cop, but nonetheless it's less appealing to lynch someone who has a cop innocent on their shoulders.
Rhinox wrote:2) If Don was really a town watcher and me scum, why would the scumteam have me submit the nk when I was set up to give fake cop results? It would be suspicious giving results on a player who is dead, especially with the chance the a watcher might see me be the only one to target the player.
I don't follow. You said that you don't have the capability to make an investigation, so what fake cop results would you be setting yourself up to give? Secondly, why would making a night kill prevent you from being able to lie about giving fake cop results?

The gist of your argument here from what I gather is "it wouldn't make sense for me to be the one to make a NK." In reality, it would make a lot of sense. Who of the remaining players in this game as scum would be better fitted to make a kill? You were under practically no suspicion, and had claimed investigative powers, making it unlikely spring would try to block you.
Rhinox wrote:I also want to point out that claiming lynx's innocent on you should have no bearing on anything. If I'm scum and you're town, then its not hard to fake an innocent result on someone I know to be town. We also don't know Lynx's sanity, and you could still be a GF.
The point I was making was that I was under moderate levels of suspicion for my lurking. By claiming Lynx's investigation on me, you made me a less attractive lynch target and lowered the chance of me being a mislynch. I wasn't suggesting it was tough for you to claim an innocent on a townie, I was suggesting it was against scum motivations to even clear townies at all.
don_johnson wrote:what good is a mafia watcher against two cops, two docs(providing spring is town), tracker, watcher(oh, and a deputy)?
With that much town power, it could be about as effective as a role cop.

I don't think speculating on the setup is going to get us anywhere. This seems like a game built specifically against gaming the mod. Gaming the mod would say if there are 2 town cops, and likely 2 town docs, then it wouldn't be surprising to see 2 town watchers as well. However, there is also an oddball lone tracker, and a lone deputy claim as outliers, which would throw out the symmetrical theory. I'm not putting any stock in theories based around gaming the setup.

-----

I'm leaning towards believing don more. I'm trying to think of what motivation he would have as scum to lie about Rhinox targeting Ice. As scum, he could simply have continued to give truthful results and probably skated to a win. Tying himself in a 1-1 against Rhinox just seems unnecessarily risky play for scum in that situation.

I'd like to hear opinions from Spolium and Spring, though.
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Post Post #1254 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 2:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

goat wrote:Claiming deputy is different than claiming cop. It's easier as scum to "cop" out and have a viable reason why you would no longer get results than it is to have to keep providing fake results all game. You would either have to keep semi-clearing people by giving out innocent results on townies,
or you would have to eventually pit yourself in a 1-1 counterclaim by saying you got a scum result on someone.
Granted, you would never fully be clearing anyone by nature of godfather as a possibility or the possibility that Lynx wasn't a sane cop, but nonetheless it's less appealing to lynch someone who has a cop innocent on their shoulders.
The bolded is essentially what don is doing :roll:

Look, there are many things I could have done if I were scum claiming deputy yesterday. For one, if I were scum and didn't want to semi clear any more townies, I could have said I had an innocent on my scum partner, or I could have claimed to have been blocked. For that matter, why go through the trouble of claiming deputy and pretending it means cop when I could have just claimed the deputy part with lynx's results and not even made up the part about being cop? The point is, I messed up and misread the deputy PM, and then thought I could turn it into an opportunity to find scum. I didn't work as intended, but it did fid scum. Its just a matter of whether or not I can convince you guys. If don doesn't lie about me this morning, I come clean about my gambit, and we'd be having an entirely different conversation right now. For one, Don would have been on the bottom of my list of people to lynch today. Instead, don does what everybody was worried about since he claimed and says he saw who made the kill in LyLo and here we are.
goat wrote:I don't follow. You said that you don't have the capability to make an investigation, so what fake cop results would you be setting yourself up to give? Secondly, why would making a night kill prevent you from being able to lie about giving fake cop results?

The gist of your argument here from what I gather is "it wouldn't make sense for me to be the one to make a NK." In reality, it would make a lot of sense. Who of the remaining players in this game as scum would be better fitted to make a kill? You were under practically no suspicion, and had claimed investigative powers, making it unlikely spring would try to block you.
Are you intentionally playing stupid? If I were scum pretending to be a cop, then of course I would setting myself to give fake cop results. But if I submit the kill, the only player I could claim to have investigated was the player who died, and I would be doubly screwed if I were the only one to target that player. Don't you think its all too convenient now for don to have given the results he's giving now?
Goat wrote:I'm leaning towards believing don more.
I'm trying to think of what motivation he would have as scum to lie about Rhinox targeting Ice.
As scum, he could simply have continued to give truthful results and probably skated to a win. Tying himself in a 1-1 against Rhinox just seems unnecessarily risky play for scum in that situation.
Easy. If I get lynched, scum wins. Clearly don would never try this if there would be a tomorrow. He would be lynched then after I flip town. Scum are probably expecting that because ice confirmed don as a watcher, that don would just be believed by default and today would be a quick, easy win. Playing "honest" would have carried more risk because there would have been a greater chance of a scum lynch today.
Goat wrote:I'd like to hear opinions from Spolium and Spring, though.
I agree and I'll answer any questions you want, but I realize all I have to offer in defense of myself is a big pile of WIFOM and kudos to don and his partner for getting me stuck in this position, so if you guys are going to lynch me for it don't bother wasting your time and mine talking all day about who my scum partner could be - If I'm really scum, I'm experienced enough to not give you guys any information that would help pinpoint my scum partner, so any speculating you would want to do you could do just as well after my lynch. I say its a waste of time because if I get lynched, we're having post game discussion by dinnertime tonight.

I think the best non-wifom point I can get right now is what goat brought up - when don gave his fake result on me, he didn't even vote for me. The initial answer he gave was"
don wrote:target: ice9

only rhinox targeted ice9

i would vote, but i am thinking this is lylo.


goat/rhinox?
Whats he worried about if he's telling the truth? I think its pretty clear he's just trying to play the "responsible townie" by appealing to the fear of LyLo, even though he would know that whether he's town telling the truth, or scum making stuff up, that there isn't going to be any quick hammer had he voted. I didn't even have to think about it after don gave his fake results. I knew I could vote without there being any scum quickhammer because I know don is scum.

Then after being questioned by goat, don gives this response:
don wrote:i don't know rhinox' partner. discussion would help.
also, i need to be protown.
wifomic, but true. it appears to be my word against his as i thought it would be.
Notice the bolded... its as if he's incinuating I'm not pro-town because I voted... For 1, Its just BS that you're trying to figure out my partner... you'd learn more about who jumped to vote me/didn't vote me if I was really scum then you would spending days deliberating and coming to a town consensus before voting, because consensus means you take all the personal responsibility out of the votes they don't really count towards tomorrows analysis. Discussion on who my partner is today is pointless because a) I'm not scum, and b) if I were, I wouldn't give up my scum partner and would probably make it harder to figure out through distancing.

In the event I'm not lynched today and don is, I'll definately be nked. Whoever left is town, don't give goat a pass just based on the innocent result. Since don is lying about me, scum were probably gambling on a townie voting me so they could quick hammer me. That would require both scum to be around checking the thread regularly, and don and goat are both here while spring and spolium haven't posted yet. Goat is also playing wishy washy about it, tending to believe don, but sitting on the fence about it and playing both sides in case you guys believe me, so he can bus and still look good tomorrow piggybacking on the innocent result I have on him. If don gets lynched, spring should protect/block goat, and hope there is a no-kill. I wouldn't recommend protect/blocking me, as it would open spring up to being the nk if the scum thinks spring would protect me.

^^I'm not saying I'm sure about goat, just that so far today his and don's interactions are giving me bad vibes. Doesn't mean that he's not just being cautious, and spring or spolium are sitting back stalking the thread waiting to see what happens.

*checking post histories*

Spolium hasn't posted anywhere since friday, so that rules him out as scum IMO. Spring has posted even this morning, but spring's role is more confirmed, IMO. scum-spring would really fuck with my head though. If I had to bet right now, I'd say goat is probably second scum.

Thats about all I can offer. This will probably be my last significant post, unless you guys have any direct questions for me. If you think you're going to vote me, and this post hasn't changed your mind, then nothing I can say will. I'm not just going to keep repeating things I've already said and wasting my time and yours if I'm just going to be lynched anyways. So just do what you're gonna do. I'll answer questions, but there's nothing left for me to say here. Lynch me and we'll talk about it in endgame, or lynch don, have a nice LyLo tomorrow, and I still won't see you til endgame.
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Post Post #1255 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 3:20 am

Post by don_johnson »

dj has been in this position before(lylo as questionable townie). not sure why you peg me as "insinuating" anything with my statements. i need to be pro town because if i am lynched and this is in fact lylo, then scum wins. if there are two scum, then a quicklynch is a possibility. have you never seen scum self-hammer?

funny, you misread your role pm. according to you, misunderstanding one's role was so unbelievable earlier in the thread that it was a lynchable offense. oh, the irony.

anyways. spring, spolium. please post thoughts.
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Post Post #1256 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 4:47 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:dj has been in this position before(lylo as questionable townie). not sure why you peg me as "insinuating" anything with my statements.
i need to be pro town
because if i am lynched and this is in fact lylo, then scum wins. if there are two scum, then a quicklynch is a possibility. have you never seen scum self-hammer?
This is all BS. Again, there is nothing pro-town about waiting to place your vote in this instance, and you are suggesting that it would be anti-town to vote.
Don wrote:funny, you misread your role pm. according to you, misunderstanding one's role was so unbelievable earlier in the thread that it was a lynchable offense. oh, the irony.
Look scum, theres a big difference between how you misunderstood your role and my misread. I hope the town can realize that. You took a perfectly clear role PM (IMO, based on your paraphrase) that anybody else would have understood perfectly and claimed to not understand it so you could explain not watching SL N1. I was given information and interpretted it the way anybody else would have -
activated
deputy given cop results after cop death equals backup cop.
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Post Post #1257 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 5:19 am

Post by don_johnson »

rhinox wrote:This is all BS. Again, there is nothing pro-town about waiting to place your vote in this instance, and you are suggesting that it would be anti-town to vote.
^^ your opinion. check my sig. all my town losses have been in lylo with me getting lynched. allowing scum the oppurtunity to end the day is anti-town. you are drawing an inference from what i said. that's not my fault. the statement was to explain my actions, not yours.
rhinox wrote:Look scum, theres a big difference between how you misunderstood your role and my misread. I hope the town can realize that. You took a perfectly clear role PM (IMO, based on your paraphrase) that anybody else would have understood perfectly and claimed to not understand it so you could explain not watching SL N1. I was given information and interpretted it the way anybody else would have - activated deputy given cop results after cop death equals backup cop.
i misunderstood the role, not the pm. not sure why you keep pushing that story. besides, i thought you were "gambitting"? also, please account for your "misinterpretation" of the results which were a major factor in contributing to the sekinj lynch.
wiki wrote:A Deputy is a role that begins as a Vanilla Townie with no knowledge of their special role. Once the Cop has 'died', the Deputy will be notified and can choose to 'retrieve' the results of that Cop's investigations. If there is more than one Cop, the deputy usually can only get the results of one of the Cop's investigations, so they must choose wisely.
^^ doesn't say anything about being "cop". were you asked if you wanted to "retrieve" the results, or did the mod just send them along?
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Post Post #1258 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 6:21 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:i misunderstood the role, not the pm. not sure why you keep pushing that story. besides, i thought you were "gambitting"? also, please account for your "misinterpretation" of the results which were a major factor in contributing to the sekinj lynch.
The point is, the way you paraphrased your PM, there is no way in hell you should have misunderstood your role. your role is the PM and vice versa. Quit arguing pointless semantics.

I was gambitting, but I sort of forced my hand by thinking and claiming that I was a deputy turned cop, and not realizing I wasn't actually a cop until after I claimed.

There was no misinterpretations of the results, I don't know where you are getting that from. I was told all 3 of lynx's choices were "not guilty". Sekinj claimed her result of her lynx investigation was "innocent". I thought that was a contradiction that proved she was lying. Now, I'm inclined to believe that the differing results might point to different sanities (i.e. sekinj would have been naive, thinking everyone was innocent), or tony decide to report results using different words to prevent this type of gaming the mod.
Don wrote:wiki wrote:
A Deputy is a role that begins as a Vanilla Townie with no knowledge of their special role. Once the Cop has 'died', the Deputy will be notified and can choose to 'retrieve' the results of that Cop's investigations. If there is more than one Cop, the deputy usually can only get the results of one of the Cop's investigations, so they must choose wisely.


^^ doesn't say anything about being "cop". were you asked if you wanted to "retrieve" the results, or did the mod just send them along?
TBH, I've never heard of that role before this game. I've heard mentioned deputies and backup cops, and I'm the idiot for assuming they were one in the same, and assumed they worked such that when a cop died, the deputy took their place.

I wasn't asked if I wanted to retrieve any results, they were given in the same PM I was told I was a deputy. Maybe I was supposed to get the results of only the first cop death, or maybe thats a clue that lynx was the sane doc, and tony was being nice and not having the deputy have to decide who was the sane cop and who was the insane cop. Knowing that deputies are usually given the option to retrieve now actually makes me think I would have been more confident in lynching sekinj, as it would have made me think lynx was the ONLY cop and sekinj was lying. :shrug:

I have to hand it to you don, you got the drop on me and I'm in an indefensible position. I'm even convinced that your attack on me right now is genuine. Isn't there a scum role similar to a framer where scum can make it look like someone targeted someone else? That would definately make sense in this game for scum to have against 2 watchers and a tracker. Because I didn't actually target ice. Thing is, if we're both town, you'd already be hammered unless there is only 1 scum left (or unless scum-spolium is sleeping).
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Post Post #1259 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 6:43 am

Post by don_johnson »

rhinox wrote:The point is, the way you paraphrased your PM, there is no way in hell you should have misunderstood your role. your role is the PM and vice versa.
i'd heard of the role before. i read the pm upon recieving it. i misunderstood the "scope" of possible results. i will not pursue this farther because i think it is a lie, but if you want to apply this argument to me, please realize the hypocrisy of not applying it to yourself.
rhinox wrote:I have to hand it to you don, you got the drop on me and I'm in an indefensible position. I'm even convinced that your attack on me right now is genuine.
Isn't there a scum role similar to a framer where scum can make it look like someone targeted someone else?
That would definately make sense in this game for scum to have against 2 watchers and a tracker. Because I didn't actually target ice. Thing is, if we're both town, you'd already be hammered unless there is only 1 scum left (or unless scum-spolium is sleeping).
^^ this had occurred to me. though i hadn't heard the term "framer" until recently, i believe there is a role termed "busdriver" and i am not sure if that would fit the townrhinox scenario. you said yourself that spolium hasn't posted since friday, so maybe you should remove your vote if you are reconsidering your position.

regardless, i think it is pointless for you and i to go back and forth. i have to make a decision based on the info i have at hand, and it is hard to envision a scenario with townrhinox, but i am becoming suspicious of the fact that we seem to be the only ones talking. we need more input. i am going to read up on some roles to see if it is plausible that you have been set up, but as of right now i don't know of any "watcher-immune" roles.
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Post Post #1260 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 7:35 am

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:i'd heard of the role before. i read the pm upon recieving it. i misunderstood the "scope" of possible results. i will not pursue this farther because i think it is a lie, but if you want to apply this argument to me, please realize the hypocrisy of not applying it to yourself.
I will submit that I was ignorant to what the deputy role actually was, but I will not outright admit to any hypocrisy. I think the situations are different.
don wrote:^^ this had occurred to me. though i hadn't heard the term "framer" until recently, i believe there is a role termed "busdriver" and i am not sure if that would fit the townrhinox scenario. you said yourself that spolium hasn't posted since friday, so maybe you should remove your vote if you are reconsidering your position.
unvote
until spolium checks in, and we get definative opinions from him, spring, and goat.
don wrote:regardless, i think it is pointless for you and i to go back and forth. i have to make a decision based on the info i have at hand, and it is hard to envision a scenario with townrhinox, but i am becoming suspicious of the fact that we seem to be the only ones talking. we need more input. i am going to read up on some roles to see if it is plausible that you have been set up, but as of right now i don't know of any "watcher-immune" roles.
Agreed that the back and forth isn't going to acomplish anything.
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Post Post #1261 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 11:16 am

Post by TonyMontana »

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Post Post #1262 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 11:25 am

Post by Spolium »

Responding to prod. Was at aikido training all weekend, was too exhausted to reply last night and I've been busy today. Should be able to get a good read and reply in at some point tomorrow.
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Post Post #1263 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 4:05 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Rhinox wrote:The bolded is essentially what don is doing :roll:
I'm aware. I feel like it's a less likely scum move due to the inherent risk.
Rhinox wrote:Look, there are many things I could have done if I were scum claiming deputy yesterday. For one, if I were scum and didn't want to semi clear any more townies, I could have said I had an innocent on my scum partner, or I could have claimed to have been blocked.
Unless Don or myself is a scum partner to you, that wouldn't really be a plausible claim based on this post that Lynx agreed to. He stated he would be investigating myself or Don (or sekinj, but I would have been skeptical had you claimed that), and for you to claim a different result would have been suicidal.

Claiming a roleblock that doesn't exist, and has no evidence in 3 nights to support it would likewise be bad scum play. I would have pushed for your lynch immediately had you made a claim like that, simply due to the unbelievable nature, and likelihood that you would be lying.
Rhinox wrote:For that matter, why go through the trouble of claiming deputy and pretending it means cop when I could have just claimed the deputy part with lynx's results and not even made up the part about being cop? The point is, I messed up and misread the deputy PM, and then thought I could turn it into an opportunity to find scum. I didn't work as intended, but it did fid scum. Its just a matter of whether or not I can convince you guys. If don doesn't lie about me this morning, I come clean about my gambit, and we'd be having an entirely different conversation right now. For one, Don would have been on the bottom of my list of people to lynch today. Instead, don does what everybody was worried about since he claimed and says he saw who made the kill in LyLo and here we are.
That's actually a valid point. If you planned on claiming deputy without the ability to produce results, then it would have made more sense to skip the cop part entirely. As scum you would have had to originally planned to claim deputy with the ability to investigate, and then later changed your mind to only get lynx's results. That is certainly a town point in your favor.

Actually, while looking back, I'm wondering how this post fits into the whole scheme. That seems an unnecessary post to make if you're lying about the deputy claim. I'll think about it.
Rhinox wrote:Are you intentionally playing stupid? If I were scum pretending to be a cop, then of course I would setting myself to give fake cop results. But if I submit the kill, the only player I could claim to have investigated was the player who died, and I would be doubly screwed if I were the only one to target that player. Don't you think its all too convenient now for don to have given the results he's giving now?
Ok, this makes no sense. If you're scum, then you LIE about results. That means you don't have to ACTUALLY target someone to give a result about them. YOU pointed that out yourself when you explained to me that it's not hard as scum to fake an investigation on a townie.

Are you playing intentionally stupid here? As scum you could have simply waited until don and spring claimed their results, and then claimed to investigate someone who didn't interfere with their claimed actions and voila! Why the hell would you have needed to actually target that player? This is really sketchy, since you yourself pointed out that you could easily lie about results as scum. Now you're trying to argue that you couldn't have lied about results. It doesn't work both ways.
Rhinox wrote:Easy. If I get lynched, scum wins. Clearly don would never try this if there would be a tomorrow. He would be lynched then after I flip town. Scum are probably expecting that because ice confirmed don as a watcher, that don would just be believed by default and today would be a quick, easy win. Playing "honest" would have carried more risk because there would have been a greater chance of a scum lynch today.
My point is that it's a risky play, and seemed completely unnecessary for don to lie about this with no suspicion and little risk of being lynched. The only real reason I could see him trying this is to protect a scum buddy who would otherwise be the probably lynch today.
Rhinox wrote: I agree and I'll answer any questions you want, but I realize all I have to offer in defense of myself is a big pile of WIFOM and kudos to don and his partner for getting me stuck in this position, so if you guys are going to lynch me for it don't bother wasting your time and mine talking all day about who my scum partner could be - If I'm really scum, I'm experienced enough to not give you guys any information that would help pinpoint my scum partner, so any speculating you would want to do you could do just as well after my lynch. I say its a waste of time because if I get lynched, we're having post game discussion by dinnertime tonight.
[mafia theory]I really hate extending the day past the point where a lynch is decided upon. So I agree with you that once we decide on a lynch we should just do it.[/mafia theory]
Rhinox wrote:I think the best non-wifom point I can get right now is what goat brought up - when don gave his fake result on me, he didn't even vote for me.
That does bother me. That's really the only main point I see against don.
Rhinox wrote:In the event I'm not lynched today and don is, I'll definately be nked. Whoever left is town, don't give goat a pass just based on the innocent result. Since don is lying about me, scum were probably gambling on a townie voting me so they could quick hammer me. That would require both scum to be around checking the thread regularly, and don and goat are both here while spring and spolium haven't posted yet.
This is probably the worst argument I've ever heard. I'm scum because I'm being active, checking the thread, and questioning both of you to determine who should be the lynch? What a load of bull.

Apparently townies lurk and scum are active. If that's the case, then how did I amass so much suspicion day 2-3? Clearly I was demonstrating my pro-town appeal by having RL issues.
Rhinox wrote:Goat is also playing wishy washy about it, tending to believe don, but sitting on the fence about it and playing both sides in case you guys believe me, so he can bus and still look good tomorrow piggybacking on the innocent result I have on him. If don gets lynched, spring should protect/block goat, and hope there is a no-kill. I wouldn't recommend protect/blocking me, as it would open spring up to being the nk if the scum thinks spring would protect me.
Translation: "Goat is scum because he believes don more than me."

I haven't really been playing both sides. I questioned don on the one point that bothered me, and have stuck to pressing you for the rest. Why? Because I thought you were the more likely to be lying. Why didn't I vote or commit? Because we're probably at Lylo, and I'm not going to potentially vote the wrong target and allow for a scum quicklynch before 2 players even give their opinion. Besides, maybe Spring or Spolium can come up with something I missed.

Also, your last point is an excellent way to setup a mislynch and loss. Spring claims she is going to block me. The scum can just choose to no kill, and I get framed, lynched, and town loses. If we lynch scum today, I want spring to make her own decisions.
Rhinox wrote:Spolium hasn't posted anywhere since friday, so that rules him out as scum IMO. Spring has posted even this morning, but spring's role is more confirmed, IMO. scum-spring would really fuck with my head though. If I had to bet right now, I'd say goat is probably second scum.
What? How could that possibly rule him out as scum? Missing 2 days as scum during a 4 day night phase when there are almost certainly 2 scum left makes him town? Do explain. Hell, I was probably absent for earlier night phases myself. If there are 2 scum left, though, that would not be a clearing point at all.
Rhinox wrote: Thats about all I can offer. This will probably be my last significant post, unless you guys have any direct questions for me. If you think you're going to vote me, and this post hasn't changed your mind, then nothing I can say will. I'm not just going to keep repeating things I've already said and wasting my time and yours if I'm just going to be lynched anyways. So just do what you're gonna do. I'll answer questions, but there's nothing left for me to say here. Lynch me and we'll talk about it in endgame, or lynch don, have a nice LyLo tomorrow, and I still won't see you til endgame.
You can answer all the stuff I pointed out in this post. The two main things I want you to address is the point about how you couldn't fake claim an investigation target, which runs contrary to your earlier statements, and secondly I want you to explain the Spolium is town because he was absent 2 days thing, because that doesn't make any sense, and seems arbitrarily thrown in to justify your statement that I'm scum.
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Post Post #1264 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 4:17 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Rhinox wrote:I have to hand it to you don, you got the drop on me and I'm in an indefensible position. I'm even convinced that your attack on me right now is genuine. Isn't there a scum role similar to a framer where scum can make it look like someone targeted someone else? That would definately make sense in this game for scum to have against 2 watchers and a tracker. Because I didn't actually target ice. Thing is, if we're both town, you'd already be hammered unless there is only 1 scum left (or unless scum-spolium is sleeping).
Eh? You pointed out how don's lack of a vote on you was a telltale sign, and then you go on to eventually unvote him?
don wrote:i am going to read up on some roles to see if it is plausible that you have been set up, but as of right now i don't know of any "watcher-immune" roles.
There is a role that is untrackable/unwatchable. I don't know what it's called, but I've heard of it. That role could make a kill without worrying about getting caught by a watcher or a tracker. However, I know that can't be the case here, because Rhinox claimed to not target ice at all. That could only be a possibility if Rhinox did admit to targeting ice, and someone else had killed ice and was unwatchable.

I've never heard of someone who can frame another player to make it look like that other player targeted someone. Bus driver is not a possibility. For bus driver to explain Rhinox targeting Ice, Rhinox would have had to target someone else and get redirected to ice. Rhinox has claimed to have targeted no one, thus ruling out that possibility.

I really don't see how this could be anything other than Don or Rhinox being scum.
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Post Post #1265 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2009 11:01 pm

Post by springlullaby »

I'm tempted to play this on a coin flip. That's the amount of interest this whole don/rhinox discussion generates in me.

Goat, I think you are scum, and this even though you have been looking townish today. The pattern fits, start of lurkage just after being put under scrutiny D1, avoidance of hard stance on the 3 mislynches, activity dramatically pick up in lylo.

Here is a novel idea: town already lost. Because the game started with 4 scum in two different scumgroup. Both Rhinox and Don are scum, with Don mafia watcher and Rhinox whatever. And one of Goat and Spolium is scum also. This way it would mean 2 cops, 2 docs, 1 tracker, 1 watcher, 4 scum, 2 townies, AND SYMMETRY IS SAFE!

If that's the case, the 2 manned scum group can just claim now, I'm giving them the win for the sake of cutting through the BS and lauding their better survival skills. No kidding, I'll do it.
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Post Post #1266 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 12:19 am

Post by Spolium »

My initial reaction is that Rhinox is lying.

First, a deputy seems highly unlikely with the presence of two confirmed cops. for him to receive only Lynx's results seems strange, particularly given the apparent symmetry of the setup.
Rhinox wrote:
Don wrote:funny, you misread your role pm. according to you, misunderstanding one's role was so unbelievable earlier in the thread that it was a lynchable offense. oh, the irony.
Look scum, theres a big difference between how you misunderstood your role and my misread. I hope the town can realize that. You took a perfectly clear role PM (IMO, based on your paraphrase) that anybody else would have understood perfectly and claimed to not understand it so you could explain not watching SL N1. I was given information and interpretted it the way anybody else would have -
activated
deputy given cop results after cop death equals backup cop.
Are you suggesting that the mod gave no indication whatsoever that your role was a little unconventional?

Kindly paraphrase your PM.
Goatrevolt wrote:What? How could that possibly rule him out as scum? Missing 2 days as scum during a 4 day night phase when there are almost certainly 2 scum left makes him town? Do explain. Hell, I was probably absent for earlier night phases myself. If there are 2 scum left, though, that would not be a clearing point at all.
QFT. I don't understand it either.

I had other stuff in mind, but I gotta dash in a minute and don't have time to rustle it all up.
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Post Post #1267 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 1:27 am

Post by Rhinox »

@spring: you're good, but you only got it almost right.


I'm an sk. If you lynch me today, you're handing the game to the scum.

I believe the setup is currently 2 townie + 2 mafia + sk.

I tried to kill spolium N1 and failed. After that, I didn't kill until last night due to being paranoid about all the tracking/watching roles that were coming out. Last night, I thought it would be safe to kill ice because I hoped don would watch me (I was buddying up to him hard yesterday, and the cop claim thing) leaving no one else to see me kill ice (bigger threat than don, or so I thought). I made up the deputy claim, and made up the innocent on goat. He could very well be scum.

Town has to lynch scum today and hope I can cross kill if the town wants any chance of winning. If I kill scum tonight after a scum lynch today, town can lynch me for the win.

I still think don could be a mafia watcher. I think spring is town. If you guys don't want to lynch don today, then my vote is between goat and spolium. 1 or both of them are scum.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #1268 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:00 am

Post by don_johnson »

why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?

looking back, i do notice the lack of flavor for nightkills. i think it is a convenient coincidence for you. also, i don't see why you would target spolium night 1. any particular reason? there were players much more townie than he.

i think you are scum and you were hoping i would toe the line and watch spring.

spring: two scumgroups makes you scum more than any of us. i.e. you counterclaimed budja on day 1 because you thought he was actually doc. if you are scum roleblocker then who is your partner?

this is getting all types of convoluted. i am going with the sure thing, this discussion doesn't seem to be beneficial. i have to operate on the idea that rhinox is scum with either goat or spolium, which is the scenario that makes the most sense.

vote: rhinox
i regret being in the position i am in now, but i feel like i've done my best. i don't believe we have an sk. rhinox has done a decent job of distancing himself from everyone so i think we should proceed to night and see what happens.
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Post Post #1269 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:21 am

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
don wrote:looking back, i do notice the lack of flavor for nightkills. i think it is a convenient coincidence for you. also, i don't see why you would target spolium night 1. any particular reason? there were players much more townie than he.
since when do sk's need a reason to target anyone? I'm not a vig. I generally target players for nk's who are unexpected choice. Want me to link you to my comment last week in the MD thread? Hang on...

Who do you kill, the lurker or the obv. town?
Rhinox wrote:I need a neither option. I tend to seek out the unexpected choices, and then laugh hysterically as the town tries to determine why on earth scum would ever kill THAT player! :lol:

The experienced, obv-protown player will probably be doc protected/watched/etc. anyways.
don wrote:this is getting all types of convoluted. i am going with the sure thing, this discussion doesn't seem to be beneficial. i have to operate on the idea that rhinox is scum with either goat or spolium, which is the scenario that makes the most sense.

vote: rhinox i regret being in the position i am in now, but i feel like i've done my best. i don't believe we have an sk. rhinox has done a decent job of distancing himself from everyone so i think we should proceed to night and see what happens.
really? you as town would lynch an sk in this situation and hand the game to the scum? Funny, now all of a sudden, discussion isn't beneficial and you want to vote. What happened to being pro-town? If I am scum with goat or spolium, wouldn't it be better for the town to decide between them in case I really am an sk?

Don is seriously scum. Town should lynch him if they want the best chance to win. Alternatively, its 50/50 between goat and spolium, regardless of whetever don or I are. Spring is the only sure town, IMO and should be her decision. As a claimed SK, i've already lost at this point. I'd rather see town win, but it honestly doesn't matter to me. Lynch me, town loses. Don't lynch me, town has a chance.
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Post Post #1270 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

And for the mathematically inclined...

The mathematical odds of the town losing by randomly choosing between me and don is 58.3% (only 41.7% chance of a lynch that does not end the game) if you assume the odds of me being town/sk/mafia are 33/33/33, and the odds of don being town/mafia are 50/50.

There is a mathematical 50/50 chance of a desireable outcome by selecting between goat and spolium, assuming that spring is 100% town (which I feel comfortable doing).

So, mathematically, its better to pick between spolium and goat. (although, subjectively, don is obv-mafia).
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Post Post #1271 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:58 am

Post by don_johnson »

Rhinox wrote:
don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
because you killed ice. were you hoping someone else would target ice as well?
rhinox wrote:
don wrote:looking back, i do notice the lack of flavor for nightkills. i think it is a convenient coincidence for you. also, i don't see why you would target spolium night 1. any particular reason? there were players much more townie than he.
since when do sk's need a reason to target anyone? I'm not a vig. I generally target players for nk's who are unexpected choice. Want me to link you to my comment last week in the MD thread? Hang on...
imo sk needs game balance to win. if scum is lynched on day 1 it makes more sense for sk to look for obvtown. but i'll humor you.
Rhinox wrote:I need a neither option. I tend to seek out the unexpected choices, and then laugh hysterically as the town tries to determine why on earth scum would ever kill THAT player! :lol:

The experienced, obv-protown player will probably be doc protected/watched/etc. anyways.
so why adjust your meta for the ice kill?
rhinox wrote:
really? you as town would lynch an sk in this situation and hand the game to the scum?
no. i would lynch the scum who is most likely fakeclaiming sk.
rhinox wrote:Funny, now all of a sudden, discussion isn't beneficial and you want to vote. What happened to being pro-town? If I am scum with goat or spolium, wouldn't it be better for the town to decide between them in case I really am an sk?
you are not sk. it doesn't fit for me. sorry, but eventually townies have to make decisions and go with them. if one of goat or spolium is not scum and town chooses wrong then town loses. you are asking me to abandon the evidence i have in my hands. i am not going to vote on speculation during a possible lylo. evidence points to you being more likely scum than sk.

btw, your math is presumptuous. real math is based on facts.
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Post Post #1272 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 4:23 am

Post by Rhinox »

don_johnson wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
because you killed ice. were you hoping someone else would target ice as well?
If you watched me, you wouldn't see me target ice... because you're a watcher, and not a tracker. Whats so hard to comprehend about that?
don wrote:imo sk needs game balance to win. if scum is lynched on day 1 it makes more sense for sk to look for obvtown. but i'll humor you.
Isn't this just WIFOM. Some players would lynch you the second you tried to reason who an sk would or should kill.

Besides, sk doesn't need balance, sk needs to eliminate scum as quickly as possible to win. And trying to eliminate scum sets up a vig fake claim, while killing pro-town players makes it obvious there's an sk, not a vig.
don wrote:so why adjust your meta for the ice kill?
I'm an sk, and I was frozen due to the watchers. Statistically, with two watchers, targetting anyone else would likely get me seen. It was either eliminate one of the watchers, or continue no killing and an sk without killing isn't much of an sk. I've played with ice (OGML) before and he seemed more of a threat to me than you at the time.
don wrote:no. i would lynch the scum who is most likely fakeclaiming sk.
First, you thought I would quicklynch myself to cut off town discussion... now you think I would claim sk as mafia to prevent my own lynch and draw suspicion on my scum partner, increasing the chance that he's lynched? not likely...
don wrote:you are not sk. it doesn't fit for me. sorry, but eventually townies have to make decisions and go with them. if one of goat or spolium is not scum and town chooses wrong then town loses. you are asking me to abandon the evidence i have in my hands. i am not going to vote on speculation during a possible lylo. evidence points to you being more likely scum than sk.
No, its clear you would like to lynch the sk because you are mafia.

The only "facts" you have are that I targetted ice, and that doesn't prove either way whether I'm mafia or sk. I sure hope the townies can see right through you as I do.
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Post Post #1273 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 5:08 am

Post by don_johnson »

Rhinox wrote:
don_johnson wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
because you killed ice. were you hoping someone else would target ice as well?
If you watched me, you wouldn't see me target ice... because you're a watcher, and not a tracker. Whats so hard to comprehend about that?
ah, i misunderstood. why would you think i would watch you when your evidence was the driving force behind our lynching a second cop?


rhinox wrote:Besides, sk doesn't need balance, sk needs to eliminate scum as quickly as possible to win. And trying to eliminate scum sets up a vig fake claim, while killing pro-town players makes it obvious there's an sk, not a vig.
sk needs balance, if you off scum too quickly then you lose. you are not sk, you don't even understand the mechanics of the role. in order to win you have to be last man standing. your odds of winning would greatly decrease without game balance.
rhinox wrote:I'm an sk, and I was frozen due to the watchers. Statistically, with two watchers, targetting anyone else would likely get me seen. It was either eliminate one of the watchers, or continue no killing and
an sk without killing isn't much of an sk.
I've played with ice (OGML) before and he seemed more of a threat to me than you at the time.
why risk it? makes no sense. no kill would have been a better option for sk last night.
rhinox wrote:First, you thought I would quicklynch myself to cut off town discussion... now you think I would claim sk as mafia to prevent my own lynch and draw suspicion on my scum partner, increasing the chance that he's lynched? not likely...
who said anything about your scumpartner?

another thing: you didn't target spolium night 1. you weren't even in this game. you failed to mention that it was your predecessor who sent in the night 1 kill and you are trying to justify your choice. it was obviously not your choice. please explain.
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Post Post #1274 (ISO) » Tue May 05, 2009 6:45 am

Post by TonyMontana »

Vote Count


L-2
rhinox
(1) don_johnson

Not Voting: (4) spring | spolium | goat | rhinox

With 5 people alive, it takes
3 votes to lynch

Deadline in 123 hours and 15 minutes
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