Newbie 764 - Game Over

[semioldguy]

And Starbuck, I'm sorry but you've replaced to a playerslot that had millar displaying some scummy behaviour and lurking and Bekkatha displaying lurking. A more detailed take on things from you would be very much appreciated.

You cannot hold the votes or whatever was said by the people I replaced against me. It is not my fault if they were lurking or not participating.

Why can't that be held against you? Part of replacing in is knowing that you have to deal with whatever was left behind of the person you are replacing. Yeah, it can be difficult or unfair to have to defend against that, but what little you've posted today hasn't looked too good to me either.

Also you haven't addressed post 292 yet.

[Starbuck]

I'm stuck on Infinis because I'm not sure about him, as are the rest of you.

The rest of us? Who else is stuck on him or not sure about him?

I was talking about this:

About the claim: since Infinis was likely on the top of everyone's scum list anyway, I discount the claim itself as a null-tell for now; Infinis-scum would have motivation to claim cop today, before he's lynched, and if there's a counterclaim, he'd be able to make the chances of him being lynched 50-50 rather than, in my opinion, a considerably higher chance otherwise considering Day 2.


But it is the timing of the claim that particularly bugs me. A good town power role should be played thus: unless there is a very imminent threat, it should not be claimed, particularly if investigative. While there was a very strong anti-Infinis stance from every player, there was, at the time of the claim, a lack of any votes; there was still a chance for it to blow over and suspicions to move elsewhere.

That being said, if we lynch Infinis, we should lynch him tomorrow rather than today. An additional investigation, fake or not, may go a long way in determining his alignment as well as the obvious value of the investigation itself.

[semioldguy]

We still shouldn't lynch him today though. Not lynching him guarantees we have a confirmed townie tomorrow if we don't win today.

[Korts]

Starbuck, there was no contradiction between Infinis' claim and later statement about a false claim. Note that the latter statement was speculation from a scum perspective, fakeclaiming a role that they do not have.

[Ojanen]

Yeah, lynching Infinis today is definitely not the right way, and in the current circumstances the claim has me convinced.
(Semioldguy's statement that we have an absolute guarantee of having a confirmed townie tomorrow though works only if you count Infinis as confirmed, and is thus a incompatible as a reply to Starbuck whose position is that Infinis is suspicious.)

Well anyway.
Starbuck is definively acting scummier than semioldguy.
The scum needs two mislynches to win and her going after Infinis at this point makes a more sense from a scum's perspective than a townie's. Also the cop contradiction she pointed out wasn't one.
Semioldguy isn't setting up a second lynch but simply saying it must be Starbuck.
Starbuck replaced millar the active lurker non content poster no explanation voter.
Semioldguy replaced JL, from whom we got next to nothing.

Infinis, any thoughts?
I'd vote Starbuck but she's already at L-1.
We should end up catching the scum whether it's Starbuck or semi anyway though, so I'm not sure how much added benefit long pondering today would give.

[Infinis]

As I said, an you now point out Oja, it is almost impossible to tell who is the scum among the remaining two replacements.

It seems way to simple to lynch them both for a win, that being said though, if it's not one of them then bravo Oja.

[Starbuck]

I'm innocent, whether you guys believe me or not.

I see what you guys are saying about Infinis. Please forgive me if I'm not as clear or concise as the rest of you as this is only my second forum style mafia game (the first being a theme game of the musical/book Wicked on the View Askew message boards). But this is my first on this board.

Vote: semioldguy

[semioldguy]

(Semioldguy's statement that we have an absolute guarantee of having a confirmed townie tomorrow though works only if you count Infinis as confirmed, and is thus a incompatible as a reply to Starbuck whose position is that Infinis is suspicious.)

It IS an absolute guarantee. Here are the possible tomorrow scenarios assuming Infinis is not lynched today (or Korts):

(1) Infinis (or anyone not Korts) is night killed. This means Korts is still alive and is a confirmed innocent.

(2a) Korts is night killed and Infinis starts the day with a guilty result. The person who he is not claiming as guilty is the confirmed innocent as either he is correct about that player being guilty or he is guilty himself, making the third person a confirmed innocent by default.

(2b) Korts is night killed and Infinis starts the day with an innocent result. That person is a confirmed innocent for the same reason Korts is today.

(3) Korts is night killed, revealed to be a townie and Infinis claims to have been role blocked. This means there is both a cop and a doctor remaining and with three players there will be one role with two claims and the other role with only one claim. The role that is only claimed once is the confirmed innocent.

[Ojanen]

Woo!
You're right semioldguy, I hadn't thought that through.

[Ojanen]

Well.
I thought about this situation and Infinis' claim one more time.
It just must come down to Starbuck and semioldguy. I can't see a good reason to drag the game at this point, this should be a forced town-win. Starbuck's reaction to the situation today was clearly more scummy than semioldguy's reaction.
This is the hammer.

vote Starbuck

[Starbuck]

Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene;

the lynched player may not post during twilight

but all other living players may continue to post.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Final Day 3 Vote Count

Starbuck - 3 (semioldguy, Korts, Ojanen)

semioldguy - 1 (Starbuck)

Not Voting - 1 (Infinis)

3 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Wednesday, May 20th (Eastern, GMT - 4).

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

The day seems to fly by as you quickly decide that Starbuck is the most likely remaining member of the Mafia. The town drags her off to the gallows, but her innocence is soon painfully discovered.

Starbuck,

Townie

, lynched Day 3

Night has begun. Those of you with night actions must submit your choices before Tuesday, May 5th.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Infinis worked hard as the Chief of Police for this town, and his loss, while not entirely unexpected, is still painful.

Infinis,

Cop

, killed Night 3

Day 4 has begun. With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. Deadline is the end of Monday, May 25th.

[Korts]

Okay, first of all I'd like neither of you to vote before we've had time to converse. If you're town, and happen to vote for the other town, you're basically handing the game to the scum.

That said, I'm pretty set on semioldguy. While his predecessor's lack of contribution can be explained away more than satisfactorily, and his analysis, on a skim, seemed accurate, I have had a solid town read on Ojanen all the way through the game. Now I will read all the posts both of you made, and recalibrate my scumdar, but from my current perspective it's hard to see that I'd come to any other conclusion.

[Ojanen]

The fact that Korts is a cop-confirmed townie makes semioldguy confirmed scum from my perspective, so there's no chance in hell I would vote for anyone else today.
Semioldguy will probably say the same about me.
I don't have any particular reason to vote immediately. But also I don't see how any conversation would change the fact that I and semi will end up voting for each other and Korts will be the one who calls the game.

[Korts]

Good point, I forgot the investigation result on me. You might as well cross-vote each other. I'll make some time later this week for a thorough analysis.

[semioldguy]

That said, I'm pretty set on semioldguy. While his predecessor's lack of contribution can be explained away more than satisfactorily, and his analysis, on a skim, seemed accurate, I have had a solid town read on Ojanen all the way through the game. Now I will read all the posts both of you made, and recalibrate my scumdar, but from my current perspective it's hard to see that I'd come to any other conclusion.

Please be thorough when going back through posts from both Ojanen and myself (and our relation to the other players) and be sure of your decision when you make it. If you have any questions for me or want me to provide a case, I will do so only if you ask. If you don't want to hear any more from me, that's okay.

Vote: Ojanen

[Korts]

I would still like both of you to make concise cases on each other. You may make a valid point that I'd otherwise miss.

[semioldguy]

Okay, I'll be doing that tonight.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

NOTE: My dissertation defense is tomorrow, so don't expect me to see me until Thursday. If a lynch occurs before I get back feel free to chit-chat.

[semioldguy]

Infinis, any thoughts?
I'd vote Starbuck but she's already at L-1.
We should end up catching the scum whether it's Starbuck or semi anyway though, so I'm not sure how much added benefit long pondering today would give.

Why the hesitation here? In fact there was more wishy-washiness and hesitation from your votes on days two and three than there was on the first day. The first day you really didn't leave much self doubt about your vote on Japles because you knew he would flip scum. The next two days you knew that townies were going to be flipping and you set yourself up to wiggle out of having targeted them if the blame came around to you.

At this point I'll vote for the person that has bugged me most constantly as suspicious. I've been waiting for him to come and answer the questions that were raised about his vote on Sando but my patience is wearing out. He seemingly put Sando to L-1 for obscure self-defense reasons. His posts haven't had much substance at all, and often he has mostly responded to stuff related to him, not so much giving opinions on anything else going on in the game. Also, based on Kairyuu's timings of bringing his cases to the table, I wouldn't find the scumteam Kairyuu/Japles unlikely.

vote Japles

Okay.
I'll get to it.
This is the L-1 vote. Anyone voting Kai after this need to be fully conscious that they're hammering him unless some further unvotes happen.

vote: Kairyuu

I outlined the link between Japles and Kai already long ago, the message has been referenced several times lately but here's the link again.

I find it a lot more likely that Kai's link to Japles is due to Kai being scum than Kai having really bad luck with several instanses of timing coupled to oversight. I entered day 2 with this in my mind, I've tried to be open to other possibilities and pursue them. Infinis certainly has scummy traits. In the end I don't think it will change that I still find Kai to be the scummiest player alive. This link isn't something that can or will change and it should be inspected.

Japles was bussed. You helped in leading the charge against Japles Day One. The first vote on him was from you. But on the two townie lynches you waited until there was enough support from other players. Against Kairyuu you waited until two other votes were on him, putting him at L-1 when you finally came around to placing your vote. And when it came to Starbuck on the third day, you waited until you could hammer. The only vote you've placed with confidence has been your vote against Japles, the one you knew would turn up as scum.

I have a little more to add in a few hours, but I have to go to class at the moment.

[semioldguy]

Yes but that tells us that you hadn't payed any attention to the discussion before, Japles, looks like you still haven't. If you "always do that" then you would have been better off stating why you disagree with Kairyuu right away.
I'm kind of getting pseudo-participation vibes from you, which I don't like. On the other hand, by not stating even the silly reason you actually did the opposite to fitting in when you look at the conversation, so maybe slightly more inattentive than scummy - anyway not pro-town so far.

I get what you are saying here. I only had a few moments... which I rolled, skimmed and voted before I had to head out the door. Maybe I should have waited until I got home from work and exhausted to read the thread and then post, but I didn't... then my laptop went haywire. So I don't know how that makes me anti-town already... but hey, I understand.

So would you mind taking a stance in the Kairyuu vs. Korts thing? You're just replying to messages to you so far. Gonna have to

FoS Japles

at this point.

You got it!

With me, random voting sometimes gets good discussion going, especially on Mafiascum where we are normally total strangers. I also play off-site on a place with 10-12 rotating players, so we have gathered tells and all that from playing so much together. Hell, a few of them have stopped doing the RVS altogether.

So it is really based on who you are and how you play. I see advantages and disadvantages to the RVS.

In reading over Japles again I found it odd that he was so understanding when Ojanen brought up the exact same points as Sando had and responded much differently to her bringing up his random voting than he had of Sando's mention of it.

[semioldguy]

If you vote for me Korts, I won't harbor any hard feelings post-game. But if you do choose do vote for me, please have (and post) a reason that you are voting for me, rather than just a reason that you are not voting for Ojanen.

[Ojanen]

vote semioldguy

I'll first post some observations. I wish there was some material to go on in relation to Japles, but semioldguy's precedent Josh Lyman was a hardcore lurker with a few fluff posts so any in-thread interactions are obviously just not there.
JL didn't abandon the game, though, Kai saw him browsing the forum and voted him for active lurking on day 2 with Sando adding pressure.
Replacing out seems to have been a conscious desicion, because VRK said he was gonna prod on Monday, Josh was seen browsing the forum on Tuesday and VRK announced that Josh would be replaced out on Wednesday. And there was what seems to be a missing prod at one point which I wondered about here.
Also, VRK told us that if someone pleaded V/LA or was in the process of being replaced, the nightkill would be randomized.

Connecting these dots, the odd killing of Chaos40 on night 1 would finally make sense if it was in fact was a randomized choice. JL had not flaked but had sent a V/LA notice to VRK. He also said in the thread on 7th: "My RL has taken a bizarre turn. Be here soon, promise." which is an unformal V/LA declaration.
Of course we know absolutely nothing about JL's style of thinking and Chaos did look quite townish after the Japles lynch, but it never made that much sense to leave alive both Sando and me who had a much stronger initiative on the Japles lynch (to the point of being regarded almost confirmed townies by some players afterwards). Especially Sando's death would have put a strong spotlight to Kai anyway, there would have been no real reason to leave us both around had the motive been just to mislynch Kai.

Then there's the Sando kill on night 2.
Sando seems to have been chosen, in addition to the fact he was generally considered extremely unlikely scum due to day 1, also because he was a nice framejob for an Infinis lynch.

semioldguy's opinion change overnight on Infinis:
during day 2:

Infinis: I don't get a strong town or scum vibe from him. He could be either. However, what I do like is that he has been looking back extensively at Day One in his scum hunting attempts and bringing it into current discussion, something that I think many more people should do more often. Previous days always merit more analysis as the game progresses. His scum hunting attempts are mostly believable to me.

He got a little flak about this appreciating comment from Sando because Infinis was actually describing day 1 often inaccurately, which lead to iffy conclusions/interpretations and unlikely suspicions.
His reply:

I find the motives to be more believable than the arguments themselves. His [Infinis'] trying seems genuine to me.

No mention anymore, but there is a clear contrast to his first post on day 3:

I didn't like infinis' hopping on and off with his vote of Kairyuu yesterday and he is one of the top suspects at the moment in my opinion.

I'd like to hear a few things from Starbuck about the game so far. Hopefully she's had time to catch up.

And in second post:

I was referring to the fact that at the beginning of the day you [Infinis] went on and off him, and then onto him again when there was more support for it. It wasn't just about your last withdrawn vote.

Note that the hopping on and off happened already before semi made his first statements about Infinis on day 2.

Overall it's a little frustrating to build the case because practically semi's playerslot and Japles almost didn't even exist at the same time and semi has handled the lonely scum role quite well.
I'll correct some misrepresenting of me he made on his previous posts next.