Mini 761 - Game Over


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:04 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Stephoscope wrote:
Zachrulez wrote:And if Jazz was unintentionally dropping power tells, you have ripped them open for everyone to see.

You seem to be fishing for a roleclaim now, and I find this scummy. Trying to find out how valuable her role is? :?
You think those could have been "unintentional"?! Seriously?

I think the intent was clear, now the question is are they believeable and (whether or not they're genuine) how do we get the most benefit from them. Softclaiming rarely makes sense.
Your overreactive tone is setting off alarm bells in my head to be honest. Your post in response to Panzer yesterday had a similar tone.
Stephoscope wrote:Panzerjager better flip as scum. If he's town, he may have single-handedly won the game for the scum with his ridiculous play. I am not going to waste any more time on this until we find out one way or the other.
And I do see it as possible that you're playing the role of an upset townie while actually being scum.

I've also noticed how how a lot of people who have ended up dead are people who you have tunneled on or people who have opposed you at one point or another.

It's WIFOM, but the pattern IS difficult to ignore.
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:10 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Stephoscope wrote:
Zachrulez wrote:I don't think though, that pointing out power tells that she dropped is the best way to make a case against her. It reeks of scum interested in a potential lurking power role.
She's either already done the scum's work for them in that regard, or she is scum. How much more obvious could she have been? I don't call them tells, I call it softclaiming.
Well one of the claims you pointed out was from before the last night phase, and she's still alive.

So either she's scum, or the scum missed the tells you are so insistent that are an "obvious softclaim"
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:14 am

Post by Stephoscope »

Zachrulez wrote:Your overreactive tone is setting off alarm bells in my head to be honest. Your post in response to Panzer yesterday had a similar tone.
Stephoscope wrote:Panzerjager better flip as scum. If he's town, he may have single-handedly won the game for the scum with his ridiculous play. I am not going to waste any more time on this until we find out one way or the other.
And I do see it as possible that you're playing the role of an upset townie while actually being scum.

I've also noticed how how a lot of people who have ended up dead are people who you have tunneled on or people who have opposed you at one point or another.

It's WIFOM, but the pattern IS difficult to ignore.
Well, there was a specific reason for my statement about Panzerjager's claim.

As for Jazzmyn, she was basically coming right out and saying she had some kind of role...It was obvious, and I'm not sure why you're not admitting that.

As for people who ended up dead...Wall-E played terribly and Panzerjager played terribly, and I have no regrets about helping to lynch them, knowing what I knew then. I admit I tunneled incorrectly on Amished, but he was nightkilled immediately after...yeah, WIFOM.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:16 am

Post by Stephoscope »

Zachrulez wrote:Well one of the claims you pointed out was from before the last night phase, and she's still alive.

So either she's scum, or the scum missed the tells you are so insistent that are an "obvious softclaim"
But that very tell indicated there'd be more to come today if she stayed alive, and she still hasn't shared, even though alexhans prodded her in 602.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:20 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Stephoscope wrote:
Well, there was a specific reason for my statement about Panzerjager's claim.

As for Jazzmyn, she was basically coming right out and saying she had some kind of role...It was obvious, and I'm not sure why you're not admitting that.

As for people who ended up dead...Wall-E played terribly and Panzerjager played terribly, and I have no regrets about helping to lynch them, knowing what I knew then. I admit I tunneled incorrectly on Amished, but he was nightkilled immediately after...yeah, WIFOM.
She was basically refuting game setup info proposed by hoopla which indicated that there was some reason she knew for sure that we weren't in certain setups.

The only 2 explanations for this that I can think of is either inside knowledge as scum, or a townie with a power role.

In the case of the 2nd explanation, I didn't really think it prudent to draw attention to the whole thing, but now you have done that... and well yeah, it's pretty much impossible to move forward without more information from Jazz now.

FYI, your reaction to her "softclaim" was the exact opposite of the way I reacted to yours in newbie 707. (And yes, I do think it can be argued that way.)
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:22 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Stephoscope wrote:
Zachrulez wrote:Well one of the claims you pointed out was from before the last night phase, and she's still alive.

So either she's scum, or the scum missed the tells you are so insistent that are an "obvious softclaim"
But that very tell indicated there'd be more to come today if she stayed alive, and she still hasn't shared, even though alexhans prodded her in 602.
And this I concede is true. She could be trying to ascertain how much information she wants to potentially share, since scum is also in the game and capable of seeing every word she is typing.

Also, you have failed to consider the possibility that she could be pretending to softclaim/drop powertells in an effort to draw a NK on herself as a vanilla townie rather than risk an ACTUAL power role eating it.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:34 am

Post by Stephoscope »

Zachrulez wrote:Also, you have failed to consider the possibility that she could be pretending to softclaim/drop powertells in an effort to draw a NK on herself as a vanilla townie rather than risk an ACTUAL power role eating it.
While I guess that's possible...one more vanilla townie killed last night, and still no sign of the scum, makes the above less and less likely.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:38 am

Post by alexhans »

Before you start going at each other let's remember we are all in this game:
Steph, Zach, me
But also ryan, JAzz, Hoopla/ash and Lester.
In the case of the 2nd explanation, I didn't really think it prudent to draw attention to the whole thing, but now you have done that... and well yeah, it's pretty much impossible to move forward without more information from Jazz now.
Remember Zach... I CALLED OUT THE SOFT CLAIM FIRST. NOT STEPH.
Also, you have failed to consider the possibility that she could be pretending to softclaim/drop powertells in an effort to draw a NK on herself as a vanilla townie rather than risk an ACTUAL power role eating it.
Ok dude... You have to stop WIFOMing so hard. Especially when it's not your direct concern but Jazz who should answer this things.

Am I wrong or Lester has ignored this thread while posting in other games... (Look at his profile).
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:31 pm

Post by Jazzmyn »

I tried to post earlier tonight from the lobby of the hotel where I had spent the day in a seminar before going out for dinner with colleagues, but it didn't go through for some reason and I had to leave, and just got home now.

For the record, I fully intend to answer alex's questions from Day 2, as I said I would. However, to answer some of the answers completely and fully would require me to disclose my role, which I also intend to do but not just yet (unless there are some compelling reasons not to do so which I haven't thought of, but which others might know of, and if so, please post them). So, a little patience is required.

Also, the possibility of a 2:10 setup took me by surprise, as I had not even considered it (having never seen such a setup before Hoopla pointed out some examples), so it causes me to think more about certain conclusions that I had drawn previously, since those conclusions were drawn on the basis of a 3:9 setup, which I had assumed was the case in this game. It is still possible, of course, that we do have a 3:9 setup but it's looking less likely all the time, given the flips we've had to date.

I decided at the end of Day 2 to claim on Day 3 if I made it through the night because at the time, assuming as I was a 3:9 setup, I concluded that there was very little risk and much benefit to the town in doing so. The possibility of a 2:10 setup changes that conclusion somewhat, but having thought about it, I think the only change is that it increases significantly the risk to me personally, but it still gives much benefit to the town. So, I still think I should, particularly in light of the discussion here today.

Before I do, though, I would like to see more input into the game from those who have been relatively inactive, and I would also like to hear from anyone town-aligned about the pros and cons of claiming that I may not have thought of.

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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:56 pm

Post by Jazzmyn »

Now, to answer alex's questions from Day 2 without disclosing my role and without going into things that could lead there:
alexhans wrote:1) Calling everyone not to hammer but not unvoting yourself?
I had no reason to unvote. If someone hammered in the face of a request not to do so for a brief period of time, that would tell us a lot. I said that I had to reread a specific thing and rethink a specific thing, so I wanted time to do that, but I saw no need to unvote, since anyone who hammered in that time would have been pretty hard pressed to explain why they did so.
alexhans wrote:2) Your post (the long ones) have a tendency to describe what happened and giving opinions, instead of making cases. That's a good way to pretend to be scumhunting but not doing anything in truth and leaning on others. You don't ask questions. Care to explain your attitude?
I disagree with your characterization, since my reading, my expressed opinions and my continuous analysis of what people post is my way of scum hunting. When I say that player A did X, which leads me to think Y, while you may characterize it as merely an opinion, I consider it scumhunting, as it adds to the body of thoughts, opinions, and evidence that the group can draw upon. This game is not only about "making cases" - it's about information, ideas, opinions, persuasion, etc. and let's face it, unless scum screws up royally or the town otherwise gets really lucky, there are rarely any strong cases to be made in the early going. So, the way I see it, posting one's thoughts, ideas, and opinions is a good way of contributing to the collective wealth of information that can be drawn upon later. As for "asking questions", I think there's a bit of a false (and potentially dangerous) over-reliance on the suggestion that scumhunting=asking questions. This leads to lots of players asking pointless and meaningless questions, for the sake of wanting to appear as though they are scumhunting, when they really aren't. It leads to players asking pointless and meaningless questions about things like using the word, "plenty", for instance, just to look like they are doing something, because if the accepted wisdom is that asking questions=scumhunting, you end up with a big heap of pointless and meaningless questions instead of relevant and meaningful content. I prefer to ask pointed questions when pointed questions are called for, and I prefer not to ask meaningless questions for the sake of appeasing someone else's preconceived notion of "scumhunting".

If anything, I find that people who ask multiple pointless and meaningless questions are more likely to be pretending to be scumhunting while actually trying to just skate along, than those who post their take on things and their opinions on things. But, to each his own. We all have our strengths and weaknesses. I try to utilize my strengths as any given situation requires. E.g.: my analytical approach works best for me, as I find it is often more advantageous to post my opinions and my take on things to add to the collective body of thoughts and opinions, while possibly keeping some of my thoughts to myself if I think that they will be of more value to the collective later, when further events either support my initial thoughts or detract from my initial thoughts. As another example, if I think I've spotted a breadcrumb, I will not point it out immediately if I think that doing so would be detrimental, but instead I will keep it to myself until such time as it becomes beneficial to the town to do so.

I am not one to ask a long list of questions for the sake of asking questions. Rather, the way I play depends upon the game, my role, the other players, and the overall feel I get from any particular game and its players.
alexhans wrote:3)Always you went with the more common cases (I mean the ones who were on the spotlight) and didn't comment on others.
Not true. When I first replaced in, I gave my views of the game to date. After that, I voiced my views on who I thought was scummiest and did not go further down my suspect list, because I believe that this is an appropriate way to play. And it works for me. I think I'm getting better at picking out scum the more I play, although I am far from infallible.
alexhans wrote:4)You pushed Panzer's lynch and later said you needed a re-read? again,Why not just unvoted to give you time? It appears like actions to appear cautious.
Not true. Your reading comprehension seems to be lacking. I said I wanted to reread and rethink a particular thing, which I did.

If I wanted to "appear cautious", I would have unvoted him. I had no reason to unvote him, and I had no reason to want to "appear cautious". [Aside: Alex, you unvoted Panzer when he was at L-1. Did you do so to "appear cautious"? The fact that you suggested this, in light of your own behaviour, suggests that you did.] I said that I needed to reread and rethink a specific thing, and I asked that nobody hammer while I did that. I had no need to unvote him because (a) I had very good reason to believe that he was lying about his claim (which he was), and (b) something else twigged with me just before I was heading out for a family event and I wanted to look back at that particular part of the thread before Panzer was hammered, because there was the potential that it might lead me to post something, prior to Panzer's lynch, about the other issue that I twigged to just before I headed out.

I had no intention of backing off from voting for him because he deserved to be lynched for his scummy play and his obvious lie. His actions were not those of a townie, at all. I just wanted a short period of time in order to reread and rethink a specific thing, but that wouldn't have changed my vote. It would only have dictated whether or not I would post something else about the other issue that I wanted to revisit before Panzer was lynched. And, as I said above, if someone had chosen to hammer him in the face of a specific request not to do so, especially since it was a very short-term request, that would have given us even more information to work with, so there was no real risk involved and no reason for me unvote him.
alexhans wrote:So, no one has asked you this but... What info did we gain with his lynch?
Is this a serious question? Every lynch wagon gives us information to analyze, even though it may not become apparent until later in the game. For instance, assuming that there is at least one scum on Wall-e's wagon, that means there is scum among Steph, Ryan and Zach. And, assuming that at least one scum studiously avoided being on his wagon, that means there is scum among Alex, Lester, and Ash. Then look at the Panzer wagon and, assuming that there is at least one scum on the Panzer wagon, that means there is scum among Steph, Ryan, Zach and Lester. And assuming that at least one scum studiously avoided being on his wagon, that means there is scum among Alex and Ash.

Putting those together, along with analyzing the posts from the entire game, there's some pretty useful information and some pretty good likelihoods to be garnered about who is scum.
alexhans wrote:You think all this is pro-town play?
Absolutely, yes.

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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 6:16 pm

Post by alexhans »

Alex, you unvoted Panzer when he was at L-1. Did you do so to "appear cautious"? The fact that you suggested this, in light of your own behaviour, suggests that you did
No. I AM cautious. I always prefer more talk than a lynch. IF that lynch is succesful, we get info from it, if that lynch is not we get info from it. Extra is always good IMO. But your attitude was more like, oh wait a bit, oh go on, it's all good... IMO.
had no intention of backing off from voting for him because he deserved to be lynched for his scummy play and his obvious lie. His actions were not those of a townie, at all.
Yeah. But if you leave space for more discussion you might actually find who is eager to hunt him down or defend him and when the flips comes you might have interesting info to work with. That's why I didn't like LEster's attitude, jsut popping by and hammering.

About your response to "So, no one has asked you this but... What info did we gain with his lynch?" I'd like to explain what I meant. I'm not saying we don't gain info from it. I just didn't understand why you would avoid this questions when I insisted on asking them on day 2 BEFORE the lynch. It looked scummy because now you can adapt your playstyle and/or suspects to the new info (DDD and Panz's flips). I mean, what's the difference between answering them yesterday and today? I can understand it better if you have the PR I'm guessing you have.

But, as I've said, I agree with you not revealing until everyone has been more active and given opinions of the game.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 6:25 pm

Post by ryan2754 »

As mentioned before, here is the post that was going to go with my vote of Lester. The first few sentences are a summary of the text, and the parentheticals are my take, or side commentary.
Post 27: Lot’s of pointless voting quote by Pitstop/Lester. (Well, duh, it’s the RVS.)
Post 33: Wall-E explains his “serious” vote on Zach. (Seems contrived.)
Post 44: Zach makes case against Wall-E, and votes Wall-E, with an FOS on Pitstop. (Adequate defense and attack.)
Post 47: Gateway votes Wall-E. No evidence, but looks as though it’s based on his attack on Zach.
Post 61: DDD unvotes, FOS Wall-E.
Post 63: Pitstop/Lester replies to FOS with 1 vote not equaling pressure. (Still no game content.)
Post 64: Lordzoner/Panzer unvotes DDD to make it more ‘comfortable.’ (Again, at this point we know Panzer is town, but still worth mentioning)
Post 71: Steph FOS on Lordzoner for not responding to his question.
Post 74: Wall-E unvotes, votes Lordzoner (Again, I understand Wall-E is town but I am taking each post in isolation and seeing if it reveal any patterns/defense/attack)
Post 76: Ryan explains his keep of Wall-E vote, for extreme opportunism, in Post 74.
Post 80: Lordzoner/Panzer votes Wall-E.
Post 84: Alexhans unvotes.
Post 91: Alexhans FOS on Wall-E for bringing up newbie card.
Post 103: Steph opens up ‘plenty’ discussion.
Post 104: Pitstop/Lester responds to Steph, saying he thinks it’s weird , also. (Nothing new?)
Post 108: Pitstop/Lester responds again, mentioning scumhunting too hard.
Post 110: Amished votes Steph for scumhunting too hard.
Post 113: Pitstop/Lester votes Steph. (Bandwagon much?)
Post 121: Ryan mentions Steph fence-sitting on Wall-E.
Post 122: Lordzoner/Panzer refutes Ryan saying that is something non-scummy about Steph.
Post 126: Alexhans defends Steph’s fence-sitting and FOS Wall-E. (Seems as though we have a difference in opinion about fence-sitting and such)
Anti-town vs. Scummy argument/questioning ensues.
Post 139: Zach votes Amished for being suspicious of Steph for scumhunting too hard.
Post 140: Ash /Hoopla votes Amished (Opportunism?)
Post 152: Wall-E unvotes, votes Amished.
Post 161: DDD votes Wall-E.
Post 164: Zach says he loves Steph’s previous post. (Possible bussing?)
Post 168: Zach says Amished should be lynch of day.
DDD/Zach argument ensues.
Post 192: Steph votes Amished.
Post 197: DDD unvotes, votes Zach.
Post 199: Ash/Hoopla brings up Amish/DDD buddying. (Well, with Amished and DDD now as town, interesting he brought it up, no?)
Post 204: DDD defends against points on Amished.
Post 207: Gateway unvotes Wall-E.
Steph/Amished argument ensues.
Post 217: Ryan unvotes.
Post 224: Jazz calls Wall-E obv scum.
Post 226: Wall-e unvotes, votes Steph.
Post 228: Alexhans reiterates low content from Gateway and Pitstop/Lester
Post 232: Zach unvotes, votes Wall-E for isolated posts.
Post 235: Wall-E says play has been intentionally scummy.
Post 238: Ryan votes Wall-E.
Post 239: Gateway votes Wall-E.
Post 249: DDD votes Wall-E.
Post 250: Jazz votes Wall-E (initially called Wall-E obv scum, but no vote. Wagon is created and votes to get to L-1)
Post 260: Wall-E claims Vanilla Town
Post 267: Panzer votes Steph, on Amished’s side.
Post 270: Lester unvotes.
Post 286: Steph unvotes Amished, votes Wall-E.
Post 290: Gateway unvotes.
Post 292: Gateway votes Wall-E.
Post 297: Panzer unvotes, votes Wall-E.
Wall-E, Vanilla Townie, lynched D1.
Post 306: Alexhans mentions Panzer calling himself minimalist, FOS Panzer.
Amished and Gateway, both Vanilla Townies lynched N1.
Post 312: Panzer obv votes Steph.
Post 321: Panzer FOS Lester for looking into night actions.
Night action speculation argument ensues. Panzer says speculation about night action is scummy.
Post 330: DDD votes Zach.
Post 333: Ash votes DDD (noticing a trend?)
Post 335: Steph votes Panzer.
Post 336: Panzer unvotes, votes Lester for night speculation.
Post 341: Zach votes DDD, saying he should be lynch for the day.
Post 350: Ryan votes Panzer.
Post 353: Ryan mentions Zach’s willingness to lynch himself, saying it’s anti-town.
Post 360: Ash/Hoopla reiterates point against DDD.
Post 370: Jazz votes Panzer.
Post 376: Zach unvotes, votes Lester.
Post 409: Jazz calls Panzer obv scum (Wrong again…)
Post 410: Pleasing Jazz post, and votes Panzer (interesting…The thing is, Alexhans has been using the buddying language throughout the game, so it seems more his playstyle than bussing).
In a span of a few posts, Jazz says don’t hammer, but doesn’t remove vote, then says carry-on after re-read.
Zach and Alexhans argument ensues.
Post 423: Jazz calls Zach/Panzer scumbuddies.
Post 426: Alexhans unvotes.
Post 430: Panzer votes Alexhans as placeholder. (If Panzer actually turned up as not Vanilla Town, this might have been helpful)
Post 431: Lester votes Alexhans. (Really?)
Post 433: DDD says accusations of Panzer are weak. Unvotes, votes Ash.
Post 436: Ryan unvotes, votes Alexhans using an argument, as opposed to Panzer and Lester.
Post 443: Alexhans defends himself.
Post 445: Zach votes Alexhans because not enough pressure (Already said what I need to say about pressure)
Post 457: Steph makes case on Panzer’s speculation.
Post 458: Zach unvotes (bussing again, possibly? Definitely seems like a coalition here)
Post 467: Ryan unvotes Alexhans, votes Panzer.
Post 479: Panzer claims Watcher, watching Amished and seeing Steph (we know this to be false, and is a nulltell still for Steph)
Post 481: Alexhans unvotes.
Post 490: Panzer FOS Alexhans, votes Steph
Debate about claim vs. fake-claim
Post 506: DDD unvotes, votes Steph
Post 508: Zach defending Steph, but in indirect way.
Post 518: Panzer mentions Alexhans tunneling on him.
Post 547: Zach votes Panzer.
Post 549: Lester hammers Panzer.
Panzer revealed as Vanilla Townie, lynched D2
DDD revealed as Vanilla Townie, shot N2

Save my vote on Lester, the next two individuals I find the scummiest is Zach and Ash/Hoopla. Ash/Hoopla has laid low (mainly Ash) and directed most of his attention on DDD, which went mostly unnoticed. DDD now dying seems less than coincidence to me. Ash also voted Amished, the post after Zach votes, and mentioned DDD/AMished buddying (who are now town).
With regards to Zach, throughout his voting, he makes cases against others and follows them, but also piggyback’s on other’s cases and votes occasionally (i.e. Steph). I hate talking in scum pairs, but a lot of there interactions play off one another. Sure, it’s a nulltell on alignment, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see one turn up scum bussing with a town.

I noticed a lot of the time, Alexhans is quick to unvote, to avoid a lynch, but ends up revoting the same person who gets eventually lynched. Seems like a pretty pro-town thing to do. Again, just trying to point it out…maybe a little too pro-town at this stage of the game.



Personally, I don’t really see the point in all this speculation about the set up. Sure it lets us know generally how many lynches we have left, but I think we’ve got the jyst of it: if 2:10, some power roles, thus more likely. If 3:9, town power roles still around, less likely. Either way, we need to lynch scum, and soon, especially with the Vig/SK around.

This whole Jazz bit with softclaiming is interesting. Now we have Zach and Steph going against each other. I really like Jazz’s most recent posts, and I think a claim is warranted, but only after others play into the thread and give some relevant information, which can be helpful after a claim. However, the information at the end about the scum piling or not piling is interesting, considering there are a lot of assumptions. Either way, given the circumstances, I could see the following:
3 Scum, 1 Doc, 1 Cop, 1 Vig (one-shot or not), 1 Other, 5 Vanilla
2 Scum, 1 Doc, 1 Cop, 1 SK/VIG, 7 Vanilla (Maybe 1 Other)
Obviously, I am leaning towards 2:10 as well, given the context of the kills so far, but certain main power roles could be used to balance a 3:9, despite its unlikeliness. Either way, Jazz, you being cautious is much better than just throwing out your claim now, and we definitely need to see what people have to say (everyone included) about the current game-state and suspicions before a claim is necessary.
Show
Town: 3-4*
Scum: 2-1
SK: 0-1
Unlynched.
"Noone can deny that the Ryan, from now on known as "Bullseye", accomplished an amazing feat. Nightkilling 2 mafia roles on the first 2 nights. He deserves to win." - Alexhans, Mini 829, Town Loss
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 6:55 pm

Post by Stephoscope »

Where the hell is Lester?
I am looking forward to modding THE ROOM mafia. If you're a fan and want to play, let me know!
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:42 pm

Post by alexhans »

Glad you posted Ryan. Interesting analysis.
Post 164: Zach says he loves Steph’s previous post. (Possible bussing?)
You mean buddying right? bussing is when scum attacks a fellow scum.
Post 306: Alexhans mentions Panzer calling himself minimalist, FOS Panzer.
This looks weird... I FoSed him for hammering Wall-e without any explanation. The minimalist thing is because he excused himself that way.
I noticed a lot of the time, Alexhans is quick to unvote, to avoid a lynch, but ends up revoting the same person who gets eventually lynched.
As I've said earlier I don't like lynches when I don't feel that everyone has given enough input and answered enough for their actions. If I think someone is scum I will be confortable with his lynch. What I do not understand is why the lynch should be rushed. That is usually good for scum. For example... Panzer... I would've probably hammered him if there was a tie near deadline. his watcher claim made no sense at all. But that doesn't mean that I have to hammer him the first chance I have.

Although I don't discard anyone, your theory about Ash/Hoopla and Zach makes sense, their interactions with others are highly suggestive. Zach's recent attacks on Steph for rolefishing are weird. I talked first about Jazz's soft claim and I thought it was pretty obvious. I'm still waiting for Lester to come by.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:12 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Zachrulez wrote:And if Jazz was unintentionally dropping power tells, you have ripped them open for everyone to see.

You seem to be fishing for a roleclaim now, and I find this scummy. Trying to find out how valuable her role is? :?
I'd hardly call them unintentional. She's either shaping for a fakeclaim as scum, or giving away
way too
much as town. Either way, it doesn't exactly make sense for either alignment to do.

--

I'm going to come out and say this now - I don't like PBP analysis posts. They are far too easy to warp either way, as you're picking the main bits (or bits you want), and commenting where it suits your theory. But I think ryan has been looking very town from my read. I'm surprised he hasn't been killed off actually. It's just a hunch at the moment, but if we have an SK, I think he's worth looking at, and the mafia taking a shot at him N2 is a possible explanation for one kill. But don't quote me on this yet.

--

Also, something interesting on Jazzmyn from Mini 768:

Read her couple of posts on this page. They basically reflect a similar situation to one that has just arose here, where set-up speculation was taking place, and she discredits them based on what her role is. In this game she was a protown vigilante.

I feel good about Jazzmyn's softclaim, but I don't know why she carelessly exposed herself. In the last game she had a reason.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:58 pm

Post by ryan2754 »

@Alex: Yes, I mean buddying. Again, I was just pointing out what I noticed. I understand your hesitancy to lynch before others chime in, but there comes a time where people need to grow some balls and vote. I'm just saying, I have seen your hesitancy on both sides of the spectrum (town and scum), and in essence, it is a null-tell, but worthy mentioning.

@Hoopla: Ok, you may not like my post by post analyses, but like I have said, what I tend to concentrate on his posting patterns. I post all unvotes and votes, and this is mainly what I look at, and the logic behind it. It has boded extremely well in the past for me, so I am going to continue it. I do not leave out any information on votes and unvotes, and this is particularly where my votes end of lying in, so I am not twisting it to my liking to fit my logic. The votes and unvotes in and of themselves usually constitute my logic.
With regards to the other posts I notify, most contain interesting interactions between players and arguments brought up, stuff I feel is relevant to the entire group. I try not to cloud them as much as possible with my own interpretation, giving a summary of the post and in parentheses, putting my own response, trying to separate the objective from the subjective, so it's an easier analysis and read for other players. If you don't like this, that's fine, but it's how I play, and I try to be as completely objective as possible (outside the parentheses)
Show
Town: 3-4*
Scum: 2-1
SK: 0-1
Unlynched.
"Noone can deny that the Ryan, from now on known as "Bullseye", accomplished an amazing feat. Nightkilling 2 mafia roles on the first 2 nights. He deserves to win." - Alexhans, Mini 829, Town Loss
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 11:06 pm

Post by Hoopla »

ryan2754 wrote: @Hoopla: Ok, you may not like my post by post analyses, but like I have said, what I tend to concentrate on his posting patterns. I post all unvotes and votes, and this is mainly what I look at, and the logic behind it. It has boded extremely well in the past for me, so I am going to continue it. I do not leave out any information on votes and unvotes, and this is particularly where my votes end of lying in, so I am not twisting it to my liking to fit my logic. The votes and unvotes in and of themselves usually constitute my logic.
With regards to the other posts I notify, most contain interesting interactions between players and arguments brought up, stuff I feel is relevant to the entire group. I try not to cloud them as much as possible with my own interpretation, giving a summary of the post and in parentheses, putting my own response, trying to separate the objective from the subjective, so it's an easier analysis and read for other players. If you don't like this, that's fine, but it's how I play, and I try to be as completely objective as possible (outside the parentheses)

Blah blah blah, that's all fine and dandy if you're town. Once that's been confirmed, you can post however the hell you like.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 11:52 pm

Post by X »

Vote Count


LesterGroans
: (1) ryan2754

Not Voting
: (6) alexhans, Hoopla, Jazzmyn, LesterGroans, Stephoscope, Zachrulez

Vote Threshold
: 4

Happiness with Posting Level
:
Satisified
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:21 am

Post by alexhans »

Wow... I was doing meta on another game and saw this
Mini #618 - Farside of the moon - over!... a 3 s 1 sk 8 t example. (with doc, vig & cop as Town PRs)... I thought this setup was unbalanced but it seems some mods will use it all the same... so I think we should be extremely careful with votes because it may take 1 wrong vote to fuck everything up... If we have this setup then we have to lynch scum because if we lynch SK we're dead.

On anther note, I liked ryan's analysis. I find votting patterns EXTREMELY useful to find scum. I was planning on doing one in this game but he made it before and chronologically too so... kudos to him. If he is scum, he gave us good info anyway.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:10 am

Post by Zachrulez »

alexhans wrote:Wow... I was doing meta on another game and saw this
Mini #618 - Farside of the moon - over!... a 3 s 1 sk 8 t example. (with doc, vig & cop as Town PRs)... I thought this setup was unbalanced but it seems some mods will use it all the same... so I think we should be extremely careful with votes because it may take 1 wrong vote to fuck everything up... If we have this setup then we have to lynch scum because if we lynch SK we're dead.

On anther note, I liked ryan's analysis. I find votting patterns EXTREMELY useful to find scum. I was planning on doing one in this game but he made it before and chronologically too so... kudos to him. If he is scum, he gave us good info anyway.
If we're in that setup, there's only 2 town left. It would also mean that one of Ryan or Lester is not town on the premise that we didn't immediately reach a quick hammering lynch.

Anyway, Hoopla was talking mass claim not that long ago. Did we get any kind of a consensus on that?
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:22 am

Post by alexhans »

If we're in that setup, there's only 2 town left.
No. We are 7. It would be 3 scum 1 sk 3 town.
It would also mean that one of Ryan or Lester is not town on the premise that we didn't immediately reach a quick hammering lynch.
No. Because the 3 remaining scum would have to be really coordinated to be allowed to vote 3 times without anybody noticing. It's far easier to play it cool if you're so close to a win. And you should try to find the SK if you're scum.
Anyway, Hoopla was talking mass claim not that long ago. Did we get any kind of a consensus on that?
What are your views?
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:47 am

Post by Stephoscope »

I think Jazzmyn needs to claim before we make any decisions about a massclaim. Who knows how her claim will change things?
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:52 am

Post by Zachrulez »

alexhans wrote:
If we're in that setup, there's only 2 town left.
No. We are 7. It would be 3 scum 1 sk 3 town.
Yikes. I'm embarassed to admit this, but I used the number of people not voting from X's vote count to make that presumption.
alexhans wrote:
It would also mean that one of Ryan or Lester is not town on the premise that we didn't immediately reach a quick hammering lynch.
No. Because the 3 remaining scum would have to be really coordinated to be allowed to vote 3 times without anybody noticing. It's far easier to play it cool if you're so close to a win. And you should try to find the SK if you're scum.
I suppose that's true. I'm still not in the mindset that an SK is a for sure thing yet though. That's probably not helping my thought process here.
alexhans wrote:
Anyway, Hoopla was talking mass claim not that long ago. Did we get any kind of a consensus on that?
What are your views?
I would not be opposed to a mass claim.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:53 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Stephoscope wrote:I think Jazzmyn needs to claim before we make any decisions about a massclaim. Who knows how her claim will change things?
Given how things have gone down, I would agree with this.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:59 am

Post by alexhans »

yet... when Steph said that you accused him of rolefishing?
I'm back...

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